2009_0423-Innovation in Japans Skies

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American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics

1

Innovation in Japans Skies!

Koji Izumi1Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), Chofu, Tokyo 182-8522, Japan

This study explored quantitatively the changes in the various Japanese public

transportation systems over the past 50 years. It was found that the ground transportation

systems, such as the tram, bus, railway, and automobile systems, have effectively matured

and saturated, while aerial and subterranean transportation systems have potential for

growth. The hub-and-spoke system of Tokyo International Airport has already matured,

and the flight routes are overcrowded. In contrast, local airports are not being used

efficiently. The next generation air transportation system will depend on the effective

utilization of many local airports. Japanese skies have high potential for development, which

can be realized by using general aviation options such as business jets and piston engineairplanes. The evolution of Japanese transportation systems depends on the effective use of

the Japans skies.

1. Introduction

apanese transportation systems have demonstrated remarkable growth and increased performance over the pastfew decades. In this paper, the evolution of several transportation systems is explored quantitatively by means of

statistical data and topographical maps. The transportation systems targeted in the present research are tram,

automobile, bus, train, subway, airplane, and super-express railroad (Shinkansen) systems.

In particular, in order to compare the convenience level of each transportation mode, the relationship between travel

times and travel distances are calculated and plotted in figures by using web-based travel estimators for every

individual trip. Subsequently, the next generation of Japanese transportation systems is proposed on the basis of

these results, with a particular focus on the potential for the development of a next-generation air transportationsystem in Japan.

2. Evolution of Japanese public

transportation systemsB. J. Holmes (2000, 2004) organized

the SATS (Small Aircraft Transpo-rtation System) program and reported

the history of American transportationsystems over the last century.1)2) He

concluded that the changes in the

transportation systems, which involvedthe successive popularization of cars,

trains, propliners, jetliners, and so on,had emerged in 30-year cycles.Furthermore, he predicted that on-

demand and point-to-point air

transportation systems will be needed inthe near future. How have Japanese

transportation systems changed in the

past 50 years? In this paper, the sameapproach was used for a similar

investigation in the case of Japan.

Figure 1 illustrates the evolution of

1 Research Fellow, Aerospace Research and Development Directorate: [email protected], Member AIAA.

J

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Fig.1 Changes in the Japanese public

trans ortation3)

47th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting Including The New Horizons Forum and Aerospace Exposition5 - 8 January 2009, Orlando, Florida

AIAA 2009-423

Copyright 2009 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc. All rights reserved.


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different public transportation systems in Japan,namely the tram, automobile, bus, and subwaysystems.

Trams were a very popular means of transportation inmany central and main local cities from 1910 until the1960s. In the mid-1950s, compact-size cars werebeing actively developed by Japanese automobilemanufacturers, and the popularity of compact cars(e.g., SUBARU-360) exploded.With the popularization of standard-size cars from the

1960s onward, the number of automobiles hasincreased rapidly, to about 60 million units within thepast 30 years. When motorization started in Japan, thelifestyle of many Japanese changed dramatically.Furthermore, the increase rate has been nearlyconstant, at about 2 million units per year, for morethan 30 years. Consequently, many cities have facedthe problem of drastically congested roads. Thereasonable explanation for the congestion was thattrams operated in the central areas of city roads. Inorder to improve the traffic situation, tram lines wereabolished in many cities, causing the overall use oftrams to decrease gradually between 1965 and 1975,and the mode of public transportation eventuallyshifted from trams to buses.

At the same time, the best solution to the congestionproblem was the development of subway systems. Thenumber of subway lines increased linearly in the past30 years, and the subway still remains a very popularurban traffic system. As shown in Fig. 1, the use of

bus lines had already matured and had started todecrease gradually by the mid-1980s.

Figure 2 presents the highway network andShinkansen (super-express railroad system) network inJapan. The Japanese highway network runs fromNorth to South along the Japan archipelago, nearlyparallel to the shoreline. In contrast, there are very fewtransverse routes in central and western Japan. Thismeans that movement between cities on the PacificOcean side of the country and the Japan Sea side isremarkably inconvenient. One of the unique featuresof the Japanese transportation system is theShinkansen , which began operations in 1964, and the

routes of this network are very similar to those of thehighway networks which run from North to Southalong the Japan Archipelago. Nowadays, Shinkansenis the most convenient and economical transportationmode for trips of 300 km to 600 km.

Figure 3 indicates the evolution of the highway and Shinkansen networks. The accumulated length of thehighways has increased by a factor of 4.0 from 1615 km in 1975 to 6617 km in 2000. As shown in Fig. 1, thenumber of automobiles has increased by a factor of 3 in the same period. Naturally, the development of highwaysplayed a crucial role in the advancement of motorization. However, although the operation of Shinkansen started atthe same time as highway development, the total length of the Shinkansen network is currently around 2000 km,which is roughly the length of the Japanese archipelago. Nowadays, highways and Shinkansen are the mostconvenient and economical transportation modes.

Fig. 2 National highway network

and Shinkansen network

Fig. 3 Evolution of highways

and Shinkansen 4)

01 ,0002 ,0003 ,0004 ,0005 ,0006 ,0007 ,000

8 ,000

1 96 0 1 96 5 1 97 0 1 97 5 1 98 0 1 98 5 1 99 0 1 99 5 2 00 0 2 00 5

TotalLength(Km)

National highways

length(Km)Shinkansen Operation (km)


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Figure 4 illustrates the changes in the revenuepassenger kilometers for 5 modes of transportation. Asalready shown in Fig. 1, passenger cars play a critical

role in Japanese transportation. The revenue passengerkilometersof passenger cars increased by a factor of 3from 251 billion in 1975 to 741 billion in 2000.At the same time, the capacity of buses and railways

had already matured and saturated, with two saturationpoints in 1975 and 1992, respectively, and privaterailways reached a peak around 1990. After these finalpeaks, their utilization decreased gradually to thepresent values. On the contrary, domestic aviation hasmaintained a steady growth.A more detailed investigation of the evolution of

automobile ownership is illustrated in Fig. 5. The useof standard-size cars had already matured by the mid-1990s, becoming nearly flat in early 2000 anddecreasing from that point onward. However, the useof compact-size cars increased again in 2000, whichsaturated the use of standard-size cars.

A detailed consideration of the evolution of car useis shown in Fig. 6, which indicates the changes in theaverage number of cars per household. In the mid-1990s, this number was 1.0; however, it exceeded 1.0in 1996. As is shown in Fig. 5, the average number ofcompact-size cars per household also increased.Households began purchasing compact-size cars as asecond car only recently. It is a well-known fact thatthe total population of Japan started decreasing in2006, and Japan is currently facing an aging society

coupled with a declining birthrate. Therefore, it isdifficult to justify the increase in the average numberof household cars. Summarizing this data, it can besaid that Japanese motorization has already maturedand saturated.

Furthermore, Fig. 7 illustrates changes in the annualnumber of domestic airline passengers. The civilaviation system has experienced relatively steadygrowth for 30 years, during which time the number ofpassengers travelling along the steady mode of thehub-and-spoke system has quadrupled. The totalnumber of passengers is currently about 100 million,which means that almost every Japanese citizen uses a

domestic airline at least once a year. Furthermore, thisfigure indicates that there are two major hubs in Japan,namely the Tokyo International Airport (Haneda) andthe two airports in Kansai (Osaka International Airportand Kansai International Airport). Sixty percent ofpassengers use Tokyo International Airport andanother 20% use Osaka and Kansai. The remaining20% of passengers use other local airports.

It is a well-known fact that The National Car Planwas created in the latter half of the 1950s, and theabove statistics shows that the popularization of carshas played a decisive role in shaping the traffic ofJapan. To summarize the above data, most ground

Fig. 5 Evolution of the automobile 6)

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Fig. 6 Changes in the number ofcars per household 7)

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old

Fig. 4 Changes in revenue passenger

kilometers by transportation mode5)

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transportation systems, mainly comprising the tram,bus, railway, and automobile systems, have maturedand saturated. On the contrary, air and subterranean

transportation systems, such as subways andairplanes, have potential for growth, as theircommon characteristic is the lack of congestion.Subways will continue to develop in urban areas,while air transportation systems will continue todevelop in suburban areas.

3. Current trends in the Japanese

air transportation system

There are about 100 public airports in Japan, andthe total number of air routes is about 250 to 300.There are 5 major airports, Tokyo InternationalAirport, Narita International Airport, ChubuInternational Airport, Osaka International Airport,and Kansai International Airport. A specific featureof Japanese airports is that 34 of them are located onisolated islands.

Figure8 illustrates the domestic air routenetworks in Japan, which are the Japan Airlines(JAL) network and the All Nippon Airways(ANA)network. As shown in this figure, the main hubairports are Tokyo International Airport and OsakaInternational Airport.

Figure 9 shows the major air routes for whichthe number of passengers exceeds 1 million peryear. There are only 23 such routes, which

accounts for around 10% of the total number of airroutes in Japan, and furthermore, 16 of those 23flight routes are centered at Tokyo InternationalAirport. Flight routes have therefore overcrowdedTokyo International Airport, and overcrowding isthe most characteristic feature of the Japanese airtransportation system. Thus, the hub-and-spokesystem has already matured and has becomeovercrowded, and the over-concentration of trafficin Tokyo is a major problem of the Japanese airtransportation system.

Tokyo International Airport currently comprises 3runways, although one more runway is scheduled

for construction in 2009 as a countermeasure againstcongestion. This fact has proven that other localairports are mostly vacant, and the task ofdeveloping a solution for using those airportseffectively is imminent. Another characteristic ofJapanese air transportation is shown in Fig. 10. Thenumber of airline routes decreased in the periodbetween 1997 and 2003 due to economic issues,with airline companies cutting services to unpopulardestinations. Meanwhile, flight volume (frequencyof flights) is inversely proportional to the number ofairline routes for the same period. This shows that

Fig. 7 Changes in the number of

domestic airline assen ers8)

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(60%)

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Fig. 8National air route network

(JAL and ANA 9)10)

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Fig-9 Major air route network (2003) 11)

(area of circle show number of passengers)


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airlines have renounced unprofitable routes,transferring airplanes to routes whichgenerate profit.

Tokyo Metropolis is the most convenientcity in Japan in terms of location.In order to compare the convenience levelof three main transportation systems, weexplored the relation between the traveldistance and the travel time required toperform the same trip using the Shinkansenand the connected JR (Japanese Railway)network, the Shinkansen network only, andair transportation (and connected JR)network, as shown in Fig. 11.Tokyo JR station was chosen as the

starting point for these trips. This station islocated in the central part of TokyoMetropolis, and is one of the mostconvenient locations in the city in terms oftravel. The destinations were 44 typical JRstations located in local prefectural capitals(except Naha City in Okinawa prefecture, which is an isolated island).

In the case of the air transportation network, the travel times included the access times from the airport and the JRstation, and the waiting times. Actual ground times were determined by using web-based ground travel estimatorsfor every individual trip, and actual airline flight times were used for commercial airline gate-to-gate times, alsodetermined using a web-based query system.

The figure shows the distribution of three different regions corresponding to the three systems. It is clear from thedistribution along thered line that the combined Shinkansen and railway network system is the slowest, as the dottedred line indicates a travel speed of about 200 km/h. Although the maximum speed of Shinkansen recently reached300 km/h, the actual average speed is lower. The statistics for the air transportation network is distributed along the

blue line, with travel times of 150 to 240 min and travel lengths of 600 to 1200 km. The dotted blue line indicatesthat the travel speed is equal to800 km/h, which is the typicalspeed of commercial airlineaircraft.The time statistics for the airtransportation network is notdistributed along the dotted blueline in this figure, and the solidblue line is drawn parallel to thedotted blue line corresponding tothe region of the air transportationnetwork. The time difference

between the solid blue line and thedotted blue line is 120 minutes,which indicates that there is a lotof wasted time in the case of airtransportation. For distancesranging between 600 and 1000 km,there is little time differencebetween the air transportationnetwork and the Shinkansennetwork, in spite of the fact thatthe average speed of airplanes is 4times higher than that ofShinkansen.

Fig. 10Changes in airline routes and flightvolumes12)

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Fig. 11Relation between travel times and traveldistances from Tokyo to local cities


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Figure 12 shows a detailed consideration ofthe time differences between these networks.These data are averaged over 23 trips from JR

Tokyo station to local JR stations using the airtransportation network, as shown in Fig. 11.The distribution includes the total time

required for actual scheduled gate-to-gate time,as well as the access times between the stationsand the airports, the wait times at airports, andso on. The scheduled gate-to-gate time is only43% of the total time of the trip, while the sumof the access time and the wait time is 57%.According to this calculation, the averageaccess time is about 80 minutes using trains orbuses. This means that local airports are locatedfar from local cities, and it is clear that airtransportation involves a lot of inefficiently utilized time.

Nowadays, many Japanese local airports are maintained for commercial airline aircraft, which are large and heavyand require long runways (more than 2000 m in length). Consequently, most local airports have long runways andare thus constructed in locations far from the local cities.

Figure 13 shows the geographical distribution of these main airports. In particular, airports whose runways aremore than 2500 m in length are located far from major cities. The access path lengths of these airports are between30 and 60 Km. This means that the access time by car is between about 45 and 90 minutes, which is not particularlyconvenient. In this figure, it can be seen that although Hiroshima, Fukui, Fukushima, and Okayama have secondairports(red circles in Fig.13) whose runways are relatively short, with lengths ranging between 800 and 1800 m,these airports are not used by commercial airlines. Consequently, airports with short runways are located very closeto the downtown areas of major cities, which means that it is very convenient to use small aircraft. A commonfeature of the geographical location of Japanese airports is that long runways for large aircraft need to be constructedfar from major cities and, therefore, it is inconvenient to access airports from the downtown areas of major cities.

However, it is easy to see the advantages of the new idea that airports with short runways, which are close to

major cities, would be very useful for small aircraft such as business jets and piston engine airplanes. Such usagewould save a considerable amount of time (mainly access time and consequently total travel time). We refer to thissystem as the next-generation air transportation system.

Figure 11 provides some hints for new ideas regarding the proposed next-generation air transportation system.The red ellipse represents the key concept inthe present proposal. The travel times in thisarea are, on average, twice as short as thecurrent travel times. In other words, the traveltimes corresponding to distances between 400and 1000 km are between 60 and 120 minutes,respectively. If this system proves to be cost-effective, it will have the potential to becomeextremely convenient and useful. The

realization of such a transportation systemdepends on two important solutions, namelyshortening the access times from the airportsto the respective main cities and reducing thewait times and terminal times (includingsecurity checks, etc.).

Until now, the solution to the inefficient useof airports has been the construction of newairports closer to the respective main cities, orsearching for other airports closer to thesecities. If shorter runways (less than 1200 m)are constructed, it will be possible to buildairports closer to local cities, and smaller

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Fig-13 Geographical Characteristics of

main Japanese Airports

Fig.12Distribution of access, wait, terminal, andtravel times for the air trans ortation

Access

Egrate Terminal

Time, 42%

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GateTime, 43%

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business jets (very light jet) will be able to use such airports. There are only a few airports in Japan that currentlymeet these requirements. In this regard, the proposed solution is based on a new approach, which is not familiar tothe users from the standpoint of the current Japanese transportation system. This new approach requires the use of

corporate-owned business jets or air taxi business jets.

4. The next-generation Japanese air

transportation system

The Tohoku district was selected for verifying theproposed next-generation air transportation system.Located in northern Japan, Tohoku has the mostpronounced geographical characteristics. Manymountain ranges run from North to South parallel tothe shoreline, and it is currently inconvenient to travelacross these mountain ranges using the presenttransportation systems. By way of example, trips fromcities on the Pacific Ocean side to cities on the JapanSea side were estimated by using two of the fastesttypes of transportation systems, namely train andairplane, where the train system includes theShinkansen network. Figure 14 shows the routes of thetarget trips. Four cities on the Pacific Ocean side (localprefectural capitals) and five cities on the Japan Seaside (local prefectural capitals) were selected. Thestarting points and the destinations of these trips wereJR stations, and the same calculations as in theabovementioned cases were used. However, thedistances between the cities were measured as straightlines.

Figure 15 shows the results of the calculation, as

well as the relation between travel times and directdistances for the two types of transportation systems.Blue circles indicate trips using the train andShinkansen networks, while red circles indicate thesimulated trips that can be made by small airplanes,such as CIRRUS SR22 or Cessna Skyhawk (cruisespeed 300 km/hour in this calculation). In the case ofthe train and Shinkansen network, the times for manyof the trips are between 180 and 360 minutes, which isconsiderably long. This means that it is usuallydifficult to make a return trip within the same day.

These travel routes are therefore highlyinconvenient, and a reasonable explanation for the

length of these trips is that there are many mountainranges which run parallel along the Japan archipelago.It is highly inconvenient to cross these mountainranges by train, while at the same time there are hardlyany commercial airlines which operate in theseregions due to the short distances between the cities.On the other hand, trips using small airplanes areshorter in comparison to trips using Shinkansen. Thered circles show travel times which are two or threetimes as short as the current travel times, rangingbetween 60 and 150 minutes, which would make itpossible to make a return trip within the same day.

Fig-14 Air routes between cities on the side of

the Pacific Ocean to cities on the side

of the Japan Sea

01 0 02 0 03 0 04 0 05 0 06 0 07 0 0

0 6 0 1 2 0 1 8 0 2 4 0 3 0 0 3 6 0Travel time ( min )

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irectdistance(Km)

Shinknasen+Train

Airplane

Fig-15 Relation between travel time and

direct distance in Tohoku district


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The open blue circles in Fig. 15 indicate atrip from Fukushima to Fukui by Shinkansenand by airplane. These cities have second

airports whose runways are short in length. Thetravel time in the case of Shinkansen is about300 minutes, while that for an aircraft is about120 minutes. The advantage in terms of time is180 minutes (3 hours), which constitutesproductive time on business trips.

In the following section, economicalconsiderations were taken into account in thecase of this trip scenario.

The economical considerations related tothese trips are based on the concept of value oftime, trip cost, and total cost. The time cost isequal to the total time multiplied by the value

of time ( 4795/hour as calculated by the

Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport andTourism).13) The trip cost using an airplane iscalculated on the basis of Air-Taxis presentopen price ($550-$655/hour for a seat in theUSA).14)

Figure 16 shows the difference between thetwo cases. The cost of a train trip is four timescheaper than the cost of an airplane trip, whilethe time cost of a train trip is twice as high asthat of an airplane trip. In addition, the totalcost of an airplane trip is twice as high as thecost of a train trip. A more detailedconsideration of the economic efficiency is

described in the following section, where wetried to by utilize the differences in value oftime and trip cost.

Figure 17 shows the total cost evaluationwith regard to the value of time and the trip cost.The value of time increased six-fold (from

4795/hour to 28,770/hour), and the trip

cost for an airplane are 40,000/hour-seat and

60,000/hour-seat, respectively. In each case,

the total costs increase linearly in proportion tothe changes in the value of time. In the figure,the three lines cross at two points, and in the

case of a trip cost of60,000/hour-seat, the

value at the crossing point is 4.5 times larger

than the basis value of time (22,000/hour).

In the upper region of this value of time plot,the total cost of a train trip is more expensivethan the total cost of an airplane trip. Thismeans that airplane trips are economicallyefficient in comparison with train trips. In thesame way, in the case of a trip cost of

40,000/hour-seat, the value at the crossing

point is 2.5 times larger than the basis value of

time (12,000/hour). In this regard, the value of time depends on the objectives of the trip and the time cost of the

traveler. In any case, a reduction in the cost of airplane trips is needed in Japan.

Fig-16 Estimation of the respective costs of train

and airplane trip between Fukushima to Fukui

\20,150

\84,400

\9,510

\23,575

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value of time and trip cost of airplane

\ 0\ 2 0 , 0 0 0\ 4 0 , 0 0 0\ 6 0 , 0 0 0\ 8 0 , 0 0 0

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basisX

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basis ; value o f time

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: Airplane( trip cost)

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Value of time

Totalcost


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Summarizing these considerations, there is a high potential for using aircraft for business travel in the near futurein Japan.

5.Conclusions

This study explored quantitatively the changes in the various Japanese public transportation systems over the past 50years.

It was found that the ground transportation systems, such as the tram, bus, railway, and automobile systems,have effectively matured and saturated, while aerial and subterranean transportation systems have potentialfor growth.

The Japanese aerial transportation system is currently facing two significant problems. First, the hub-and-spoke system of the Tokyo International Airport has already matured and the flight routes are overcrowded,while at the same time local airports are not being used efficiently. Second, aerial transportation systemsare not being used effectively since 60% of the travel time is wasted. In particular, the access time is onlyabout 40% of the travel time because airports which have long runways are located far from the main cities.

The next-generation air transportation system will likely depend on the efficient utilization of many local

airports, for example, by using business jets and piston engine airplanes. Furthermore, airports which haveshort runways and are located very close to major cities are available for use by small aircraft, which cannotably reduce the access time and consequently the total time for travelers.

Japans skies have high potential for development based on general aviation options such as business jets andpiston engine airplanes. The evolution of Japanese transportation systems depends on the effective use of smallaircraft.

Acknowledgement

The author expresses gratitude to Professor Susumu Toda of Waseda University, Dr. B. J. Holmes of DayjetCorporation, and President Sandy Munro , Mr. Makoto Yamamoto of Munro & Associate, Inc. for their valuableadvise and kind support regarding this work.

References1Holmes,B., National General Aviation Roadmap; Definition for a small Aircraft Transportation System, SATS: Small

Aircraft Transportation System, edited by B.D.Bowen, Univ.of Nebraska at Omaha Aviation Inst.,Omaha,NE.2000.

2 Holmes,B., Durham,M., Tarry,S., Small Aircraft Transportation System Concept and Technologies Journal of Aircraft,Vol. 41, 2004 , pp. 2635

3,4Transportation StatisticsMinistry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in Japan

http://toukei.mlit.go.jp/transportation_statistics.html5 Statistical Handbook of Japan; Statistics Bureau,Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications,

http://www.stat.go.jp/data/nihon/12.htm6,7Automobile Statistics; Automobile Inspection & Registration Information Association,

http://www.airia.or.jp/8 Air-Transportation Statistics; Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in Japan

http://toukei.mlit.go.jp/koukuu/koukuu.html9Route-Map ; Japan Airlines Corporation; HP

http://www.jal.com/ja/corporate/gaiyo/flight.html10 Route-Map; All Nippon Airways Co., Ltd. ;Hp

http://www.ana.co.jp/dom/airinfo/networkmap/main_syuukoutoshi.html11Air-Transportation Statistics; Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in Japan

http://toukei.mlit.go.jp/koukuu/koukuu.html12White Paper on Land, Infrastructure and Transport in Japan, 2005 (in Japanese)

13 Ishikura .T.,Ishii.M.: A domestic air demand model considering oligopoly competition, Technological note of NationalInstitute for Land and Infrastructure Management ,Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, 2006 (inJapanese)

14SATSair HP:http://www.satsair.com/block_time.html

2009_0423-Innovation in Japans Skies

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