2009 World Population Aging

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Transcript of 2009 World Population Aging

E c o n o m i c & S o c i a l A f f a i r s

World Population Ageing 2009

United Nations

ESA/P/WP/212 December 2009

Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division

World Population Ageing 2009

United Nations New York, 2009

DESAThe Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat is a vital interface between global policies in the economic, social and environmental spheres and national action. The Department works in three main interlinked areas: (i) it compiles, generates and analyses a wide range of economic, social and environmental data and information on which Member States of the United Nations draw to review common problems and take stock of policy options; (ii) it facilitates the negotiations of Member States in many intergovernmental bodies on joint courses of action to address ongoing or emerging global challenges; and (iii) it advises interested Governments on the ways and means of translating policy frameworks developed in United Nations conferences and summits into programmes at the country level and, through technical assistance, helps build national capacities.

NoteThe designations employed in this report and the material presented in it do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The term country as used in the text of this publication also refers, as appropriate, to territories or areas. The designations developed and developing countries or areas and more developed, less developed and least developed regions are intended for statistical convenience and do not necessarily express a judgement about the stage reached by a particular country or area in the development process. This publication has been issued without formal editing.

ESA/P/WP/212

COPYRIGHT UNITED NATIONS, 2009 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

PREFACEAs the proportion of the worlds population in the older ages continues to increase, the need for improved information and analysis of demographic ageing increases. Knowledge is essential to assist policy makers define, formulate and evaluate goals and programmes, and to raise public awareness and support for needed policy changes. The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations has long experience in the analysis of population ageing. In addition to preparing national estimates and projections of older populations, the Population Division has contributed to the analysis of the determinants and consequences of population ageing. The Population Division is the organizational unit of the Secretariat charged with monitoring progress towards the achievement of the goals set out in the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development, held in Cairo in 1994. The Programme of Action enunciated objectives and recommended actions concerning population ageing and older persons (United Nations, 1995). The Population Division has also organized expert meetings on various aspects of population ageing. In 1997, for example, the Division convened a meeting on below-replacement fertility (United Nations, 2000); in 2000, two meetings on population ageing were organized: the first on the living arrangements of older persons (United Nations, 2001), and the second on policy responses to population ageing and population decline (United Nations, 2004). More recently, in 2005, the Population Division organized an expert group meeting on the social and economic implications of changing population age structures (United Nations, 2007a). In 1982, the United Nations adopted the International Plan of Action on Ageing at the first World Assembly on Ageing (United Nations, 1982). Then, in 1999 in its resolution 54/262, the General Assembly decided to convene the Second World Assembly on Ageing in 2002. The Second World Assembly adopted the Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing, marking a turning point in how the world addresses the key challenge of building a society for all ages. The Plan focuses on three priority areas: older persons and development; advancing health and well-being into old age; and ensuring enabling and supportive environments. This new edition of World Population Ageing is the third in a series. The first report was released in 2002 in conjunction with the Second World Assembly on Ageing. The present report, which updates the 2007 edition, provides a description of global trends in population ageing and includes a series of indicators of the ageing process by development regions, major areas, regions and countries. This new edition includes new features on ageing in rural and urban areas, the coverage of pension systems and the impact of the 2007-2008 financial crisis on pension systems. The report is intended to provide a solid demographic foundation for the follow-up activities of the Second World Assembly on Ageing. Comments and suggestions on this report are welcome and may be addressed to Ms. Hania Zlotnik, Director, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Secretariat, New York, N.Y. 10017, fax number (212) 963-2147.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division

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SOURCES, METHODS AND CLASSIFICATIONSData on demographic trends used in the present report are taken from the 2008 Revision of the official United Nations world population estimates and projections (United Nations, 2009b). In addition, data: on labour force participation were obtained from the International Labour Organization (International Labour Organization, 2009); on illiteracy from the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization1; on statutory pensionable age from the United States Social Security Administration (United States Social Security Administration, 2009). Data on living arrangements and marital status were compiled for the present report from United Nations publications (United Nations, 2005, 2006; United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2009a), the Demographic Yearbook database of the Statistics Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (including updates through August 2009) and data from the Demographic and Health Surveys programme.2 The population estimates and projections, which are prepared biennially by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, provide the standard and consistent set of population figures that are used throughout the United Nations system as the basis for activities requiring population information. In the case of the 2008 Revision, standard demographic techniques were used to estimate the population by age and sex, as well as trends in total fertility, life expectancy at birth, infant mortality and international migration for the years 1950 through 2010, from data available from censuses, demographic and vital registration systems and sample surveys. The resulting estimates provided the basis from which the population projections follow. The present report draws on the medium variant projections through the year 2050.3 The countries and areas identified as statistical units by the Statistics Division of the United Nations and covered by the above estimates and projections, are grouped geographically into six major areas: Africa; Asia; Europe; Latin America and the Caribbean; Northern America; and Oceania. Those major areas are further divided geographically into 21 regions. In addition, the regions are summarized, for statistical convenience, into two general groupsmore developed and less developedon the basis of demographic and socio-economic characteristics. The less developed regions include all regions of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), Latin America and the Caribbean, and Oceania (excluding Australia and New Zealand). The more developed regions include all other regions plus the three countries excluded from the less developed regions. The group of least developed countries, as defined by the United Nations General Assembly in its resolutions (59/209, 59/210 and 60/33) in 2007, comprises 49 countries. See Annex II for further detail.

1

Special tabulations of data on illiteracy for countries and regions by the UNESCO Institute for Statistics, personal communication, December 2008 and March 2009 2 See MEASURE DHS, http://www.measuredhs.com. 3 Further information about data sources and methods underlying the estimates and projections of population can be found on the Internet at http://esa.un.org/wpp/sources/country.aspx and http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp?panel=4

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World Population Ageing 2009

CONTENTSPage Preface...................................................................................................................................... Sources, methods and classifications ....................................................................................... Explanatory notes ..................................................................................................................... EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................... INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................... CHAPTER I. II. III. IV. V. DEMOGRAPHIC DETERMINANTS AND SPEED OF POPULATION AGEING........................ THE CHANGING BALANCE AMONG AGE GROUPS ....................................................... DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF THE OLDER POPULATION ................................................. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF