2008 Seasonal Prediction for 2008 Seasonal Prediction for CanadaCanada

Kerry AndersonKerry Anderson

Richard CarrRichard Carr

Peter EnglefieldPeter Englefield

MethodologyMethodology

1.1. Calculate spring start-up conditions based on fall Calculate spring start-up conditions based on fall drought code (DC) values and over-winter precipitation drought code (DC) values and over-winter precipitation amounts,amounts,

2.2. Calculate average daily weather for weather stations Calculate average daily weather for weather stations across country,across country,

3.3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions,predictions,

4.4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average seasonal severity rating forecasted over average seasonal severity rating (SSR).(SSR).

Changes from Last YearChanges from Last Year

1.1. Inclusion of 4 model, 10 member ensemble Inclusion of 4 model, 10 member ensemble predictions from Environment Canada,predictions from Environment Canada,

2.2. Estimate confidence range based on ensemble Estimate confidence range based on ensemble spread,spread,

3.3. Move towards monthly predictions,Move towards monthly predictions,

4.4. Evaluation of past forecasts.Evaluation of past forecasts.

Ensemble ForecastsEnsemble Forecasts

Recently, the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) of Environment Canada has begun providing temperature and precipitation probabilistic forecasts based on an ensemble of ten integrations of four independent models:

1. climate ver. of the Global Environmental Multiscale model (GEM-CLIM),

2. 2nd gen. of the Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM2),

3. 3rd gen. of the Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM3),

4. Spectral aux éléments finis (SEF).

Forecasts are provided for the next four months.Forecasts are provided for the next four months.

Ensemble ForecastsEnsemble Forecasts

The ensemble approach provides a measure of confidence indicated by the spread of the ensemble members.

The extended The extended forecast continues forecast continues to use the single, to use the single, deterministic deterministic forecastforecast

CYEG

date

Tem

p-G

CM

2

05

1015

2025

30

CYEG

date

Tem

p-G

CM

3

05

1015

2025

30

CYEG

date

Tem

p-

GE

M

05

1015

2025

30

CYEG

date

Tem

p-S

EF

05

1015

2025

30

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2007 Seasonal Prediction

2007 PredictionLast year’s Last year’s

prediction showed prediction showed below-average below-average

conditions conditions throughout much of throughout much of

Canada.Canada.

Only Vancouver Only Vancouver Island, central Island, central

Saskatchewan and Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba northern Manitoba

show above-show above-average severity.average severity.

2007 Prediction

As it turned out, 2007 was a As it turned out, 2007 was a quiet fire season with fire quiet fire season with fire

activity limited to Quebec, activity limited to Quebec, Southeastern BC, and the Southeastern BC, and the

northern boreal plains.northern boreal plains.

2008 Seasonal Prediction2008 Seasonal Prediction

Spring Start-up ConditionsSpring Start-up Conditions

The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System allows for the carry-over of (FWI) System allows for the carry-over of fall conditions to the spring.fall conditions to the spring.

This is handled by the Drought Code (DC) This is handled by the Drought Code (DC) (similar to the 1000 hour moisture code).(similar to the 1000 hour moisture code).

All other moisture codes in the FWI All other moisture codes in the FWI system are reset.system are reset.

Spring Start-up ConditionsSpring Start-up Conditions

Fall DC values Fall DC values show high (dry) show high (dry) conditions conditions throughout much throughout much of Western of Western Canada and the Canada and the Territories with Territories with the highest values the highest values in Northeastern in Northeastern Alberta and the Alberta and the Yukon.Yukon.

Spring Start-up ConditionsSpring Start-up Conditions

Most of the winter Most of the winter precipitation came to precipitation came to

western BC, the parts western BC, the parts of the Yukon and of the Yukon and Eastern Canada.Eastern Canada.

The southern Prairies The southern Prairies and western Ontario and western Ontario saw below-average saw below-average

amounts of snow amounts of snow over the winter.over the winter.

Spring Start-up ConditionsSpring Start-up Conditions

Eastern Canada, the Eastern Canada, the northern Prairies and northern Prairies and western BC near total western BC near total recharge of deep fuel recharge of deep fuel moistures.moistures.

Southeastern BC and the Southeastern BC and the southern Prairies, parts of southern Prairies, parts of the Yukon and the the Yukon and the Mackenzie basin show high Mackenzie basin show high spring DC values.spring DC values.

Seasonal ForecastsSeasonal Forecasts

Spring temperature Spring temperature anomalies are low for anomalies are low for western Canada and western Canada and high for eastern high for eastern Canada. Canada.

Precipitation Precipitation anomalies are high for anomalies are high for nearly all of Canada nearly all of Canada except for southern except for southern Alberta, BC and the Alberta, BC and the far north.far north.

April-May-June

Seasonal ForecastsSeasonal ForecastsEarly summer sees Early summer sees

above normal above normal temperatures temperatures

throughout most of throughout most of Canada with the Canada with the exception of BC.exception of BC.

Above normal Above normal precipitation precipitation

predicted for Alberta, predicted for Alberta, Saskatchewan and Saskatchewan and Manitoba, below in Manitoba, below in

southern BC and southern BC and western Ontariowestern Ontario May-June-July

Seasonal ForecastsSeasonal ForecastsSummer temperature Summer temperature anomalies are high for anomalies are high for western and northern western and northern Canada.Canada.

Below-normal Below-normal precipitation is predicted precipitation is predicted for central BC and for central BC and Hudson’s Bay, while Hudson’s Bay, while above-normal above-normal precipitation is predicted precipitation is predicted for the central prairies, for the central prairies, the western territories the western territories and much of eastern and much of eastern CanadaCanadaJune-July-August

April 2008April 2008

Low conditions in the Prairies and eastern Canada. Above Low conditions in the Prairies and eastern Canada. Above average conditions in the northwest though confidence is low average conditions in the northwest though confidence is low

for Mackenzie basin.for Mackenzie basin.

Prediction(predicted values normalized against average weather)

Confidence(standard deviation normalized against average weather)

May 2008May 2008

Average conditions throughout most of Canada except for Average conditions throughout most of Canada except for the Mackenzie basin, northern Quebec and Labrador the Mackenzie basin, northern Quebec and Labrador

(above), and Churchill (below). (above), and Churchill (below).

Prediction(predicted values normalized against average weather)

Confidence(standard deviation normalized against average weather)

June 2008June 2008

With the exception of northern BC and the Maritimes, With the exception of northern BC and the Maritimes, June sees an increase in fire weather conditions in much June sees an increase in fire weather conditions in much

of Canada.of Canada.

Prediction(predicted values normalized against average weather)

Confidence(standard deviation normalized against average weather)

July 2008July 2008

July sees an significant increase in fire weather conditions July sees an significant increase in fire weather conditions in nearly all of Canada. Low confidence in predictions for in nearly all of Canada. Low confidence in predictions for

northern and western Canada (the extreme areas).northern and western Canada (the extreme areas).

Prediction(predicted values normalized against average weather)

Confidence(standard deviation normalized against average weather)

July, August, September 2008July, August, September 2008

Predictions (based on deterministic) show increased fire Predictions (based on deterministic) show increased fire weather severity in BC, Manitoba and western Ontario. weather severity in BC, Manitoba and western Ontario.

Confidence in these extended forecasts are low.Confidence in these extended forecasts are low.

Predictions(predicted values normalized against average weather)

May-Aug 2008May-Aug 2008

The 2008 fire season is above-average for BC through The 2008 fire season is above-average for BC through Ontario (except for central Prairies). Confidence is Ontario (except for central Prairies). Confidence is

highest in BC and eastern Canada.highest in BC and eastern Canada.

Prediction(predicted values normalized against average weather)

Confidence(standard deviation normalized against average weather)

The EndThe End