2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to...

43
2008 Results Reviewed 11 November 2008

Transcript of 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to...

Page 1: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

2008 Results Reviewed

11 November 2008

Page 2: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Agenda

� Overview of company

� Financial results

� Business review

� Institutional

� Personal Investments

� Prospects

Page 3: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Overview

Page 4: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Overview 2008 FYE

� Assets under management of R125 billion (-7%)

� Cash of R186 million returned to shareholders (R40 million through share buy-back)

� Diluted headline earnings per share of 48.6 cents (-33%)

� Distribution of 46 cents per share (-31%)

Page 5: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Market movementsSeptember 2008

-13.6-7.22.9Industrials

-4.4

-15.3

-30.1

1.55

-19.44

-17.9

6 months

%

-17.211.9Financials

-1.5

-38.3

1.07

-21.63

-20.6

3 months

%

-23.4Small Cap

-24.0

2.44

-20.44

-18.0

12 months

%

Resource 20

All Share

(Dividend Return)

All Share

(Capital Return)

All Share

Economic group

Page 6: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Assets under management2003 – 30 September 2008

53,697

63,759

81,930

101,440

133,730124,990

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

2003

Sept

2004

Sept

2005

Sept

2006

Sept

2007

Sept

2008

Sept

Page 7: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Reconciliation of AUM

124.99

-6.94

2.84

-0.73

-3.91

133.73

YTD

Closing market value

Capital appreciation

Currency effect

Charges

Net flows

Opening market value

Page 8: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Total net margin as at 30 September 2008

0.64%

0.52%

0.75%

0.87%

0.97%

0.58% 0.59%

0.68% 0.69% 0.70%

0.52%

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Page 9: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Financial summary

� Revenue R804 million (-16%)

� Profit from Fund Management R277 million (-36%)

� PAT R178 million (-38%)

� Cash generated from operations R328 million

Page 10: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Share price

3 Feb Ex div : 36cpu

15 Jun – 25 AugBuyback : 35m

11 DecEx div : 53cpu

4 JunEx div : 20cpu

31 Jul – 15 AugBuyback – 35.5m

29 JanSENS Trading Update

13 MayEx div : 16cpu

13 NovEx div : 47cpu

Source: I-Net Bridge

26 Jun – 3 SeptBuyback – 8.2m

Page 11: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Share buy-back

� Details

� Total consideration R39.6m (incl. costs)

� Date 26 June – 3 September

� Number purchased 8.2 million

� Average price R4.81 (incl. costs)

� No of shares in issue post buy-back

� Currently 315,8 million

Page 12: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Company structureat 30 September 2008

Coronation InvestmentCoronation InvestmentCoronation InvestmentCoronation Investment

Management Management Management Management ((((PtyPtyPtyPty) ) ) ) LtdLtdLtdLtd

Coronation Asset Coronation Asset Coronation Asset Coronation Asset Management (Pty) LtdManagement (Pty) LtdManagement (Pty) LtdManagement (Pty) Ltd

Coronation Coronation Coronation Coronation Management Company Management Company Management Company Management Company

LtdLtdLtdLtd

Coronation Life Coronation Life Coronation Life Coronation Life Assurance Company Assurance Company Assurance Company Assurance Company

LtdLtdLtdLtdCFM (Isle of Man) LtdCFM (Isle of Man) LtdCFM (Isle of Man) LtdCFM (Isle of Man) Ltd

Coronation Fund Managers LtdCoronation Fund Managers LtdCoronation Fund Managers LtdCoronation Fund Managers Ltd

The Imvula TrustThe Imvula TrustThe Imvula TrustThe Imvula Trust

Coronation Fund Coronation Fund Coronation Fund Coronation Fund

Managers (Botswana) Managers (Botswana) Managers (Botswana) Managers (Botswana) (Pty) Ltd(Pty) Ltd(Pty) Ltd(Pty) Ltd

10%

51%

Botswana

100% 100% 100% 100%

90%

Coronation Investment Coronation Investment Coronation Investment Coronation Investment Services (Pty) LtdServices (Pty) LtdServices (Pty) LtdServices (Pty) Ltd

Namibia Asset Namibia Asset Namibia Asset Namibia Asset Management Company Management Company Management Company Management Company

(Pty) Ltd(Pty) Ltd(Pty) Ltd(Pty) Ltd

Namibia

100%

55%

Professional Provident Society Professional Provident Society Professional Provident Society Professional Provident Society Investments (Pty) LtdInvestments (Pty) LtdInvestments (Pty) LtdInvestments (Pty) Ltd

49%

Page 13: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Financial Review

Page 14: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Earnings

Change % 2008 2007

Attributable earnings (39) 172,942 283,887

EPS (34) 53.9 81.4

Headline earnings (39) 169,782 277,871

HEPS (34) 52.9 79.6

Diluted HEPS (33) 48.6 72.7

Weighted average shares in issue - 30 Sept (8) 321,080,742 348,893,885

Actual shares in issue - 30 Sept (2) 315,774,163 320,732,799

Proposed Final DPS (36) 30 47

Page 15: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Earnings (continued)

PE earnings – share price/HEPS

Change % 2008 2007

Cost to income (14) 66.2% 57.2%

EBITDA (34) 295,352 448,725

Market capitalisation (35) 1,815,701 2,780,753

Share price @ 30 September (34) 5.75 8.67

Price earnings per share (0) 10.9 10.9

Page 16: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Shares in issue

2008 2007

Opening balance - 1 October 320,732,799 349,577,402

Issued during the year 3,253,352 6,659,990

Bought back and cancelled -8,211,988 -35,504,593

Closing balance - 30 September 315,774,163 320,732,799

Weighted average - 30 September 321,080,742 348,893,885

Page 17: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Funds subject to performance feesas a % of AUM

Funds % Benchmark

Relative benchmark performance fees 43%

CAPI, SWIX, FINDI, ALBI, MSCI,

performance over cash & median or 75h

percentile

Absolute benchmark performance fees 14% CPI/CPIX plus target

Total 57%

2008 2007

Institutional 57% 58%

Retail 40% 44%

International 88% 78%

TOTAL 57% 57%

Page 18: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Earnings summary – 2nd vs 1st half

Change Apr-Sept-08 Oct-Mar-08

% R'000 R'000

Revenue (11) 385,291 432,908

Operating expenses (3) -196,438 -203,128

Distribution payments (21) -47,903 -60,399

IFRS2 charges 51 -20,266 -13,395

PBT (23) 120,684 155,987

Tax (49) -33,364 -65,719

PAT (3) 87,320 90,268

Page 19: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Cash returned to shareholders

2008 2007 2006 2005

R'000 R'000 R'000 R'000

Share buy-back 39,576 299,576 200,168 0

Distribution - interim 51,739 71,238 0 0

Special distribution - BEE deal 0 0 0 95,569

Distribution - final 94,732 150,744 185,276 138,197

Cash returned 186,047 521,559 385,444 233,766

No. of shares in issue @ 30 September 315,774,163 320,732,799 349,577,402 382,274,930

Page 20: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

IFRS2 effect

Forecast 2009 2008 2007 2006

R'000 R'000 R'000 R'000

December 2003 options 0 149 637 1,968

Imvula transaction 5,301 12,236 8,969 5,877

CIT transaction 1 (February 2005) 3,814 10,896 15,405 13,132

CIT transaction 2 (April 2005) 4,132 7,754 9,556 9,556

CIT transaction 3 (September 2005) 545 2,297 5,645 8,156

Preference shares 0 0 0 12,695

Total 13,792 33,332 40,212 51,384

Page 21: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Cost comparison

* New employees - Private Equity 4, Global Emerging Markets & Africa 4

Change 2008 2007

% R'000 R'000

Total operating expenses (6) 541,528 577,537

Interest Expense 16,441 13,049

Share-based payments 33,661 40,212

Renovation/Office move 9,332 702

Impairment of capital assets -72 981

Adjusted costs (8) 482,166 522,594

Variable costs (17) 272,492 329,357

Fixed costs 9 209,674 193,236

Major contributors:

Fixed remuneration 14 78,739 69,163

Marketing 9 27,707 25,513

Staff numbers* 183 178

Page 22: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Business Review

Page 23: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Institutional performanceand New Business

Page 24: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

-15.40%

-5.59%

9.52%

2.83%

2.79%

4.39%

-0.52%

3.60%

1.75%

-0.97%

-7.54%

0.17%3.53%

1.34%

-10.19%

-6.33%

-6.20%

-17.65%-1

0.88%

1.75%

3.60%

-12.16%-7.76%

-5.24%

-10.16%

16.20%

-8.27%

-20.00%

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Mar-08

annualised

Private market Official Total market

Net fund flows

Page 25: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

PerformanceGlobal Large Manager Watch3 years ending 30 September 2008

11.22%

11.97%

12.32%

12.40%

13.79%

14.34%

14.57%

14.63%

14.93%

14.99%

17.69%

18.47%

Sanlam

Cadiz African Harvest

Metropolitan

Stanlib

RMBAM

Median

Prudential

OMIGSA

Oasis

Coronation

Allan Gray

Investec

Source: Alexander Forbes

Page 26: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

PerformanceGlobal Large Manager Watch5 years ending 30 September 2008

19.55%

19.75%

20.12%

20.35%

21.42%

21.48%

21.81%

22.66%

22.72%

22.74%

23.38%

24.26%

Sanlam

Metropolitan

Stanlib

Cadiz African Harvest

Oasis

RMBAM

Median

Coronation

OMIGSA

Prudential

Allan Gray

Investec

Source: Alexander Forbes

Page 27: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

PerformanceSA Large Manager Watch3 years ending 30 September 2008

10.95%

11.63%

13.60%

13.62%

14.69%

14.81%

15.23%

15.37%

16.29%

16.63%

18.99%

19.21%

Sanlam

Cadiz African Harvest

Metropolitan

Stanlib

RMBAM

OMIGSA

Prudential

Median

Coronation

Oasis

Allan Gray

Investec

Source: Alexander Forbes

Page 28: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

PerformanceAbsolute Return productPeriods ending 30 September 2008

15.3%

8.3%

14.6%

3 Years

14.0%20.2%CPIX +7%

7.0%13.2%CPIX

19.0%-2.8%Absolute

Since inception*

1 Year

*Since inception – August 1999

Page 29: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

11.86%

13.87%

14.33%

15.00%

16.07%

17.23%

17.56%

17.78%

18.26%

18.94%

20.10%

21.88%

RMBAM Equity Aggressive-Wider Universe

RMBAM Equity Moderate Active

OMIGSA Value Equity Investments Value Portfolio

Regarding Capital Management

Investec Value*

Fraters Specialist Equity

Coronation Houseview Equity

Fraters Equity

Stanlib Value Fund

Oasis Specialist Domestic

ABSA Asset Management Value

Allan Gray

PerformanceCoronation Houseview Equity3 years ending 30 September 2008

Source: Alexander Forbes

Page 30: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

PerformanceSA Bond Manager Watch3 years ending 30 September 2008

7.04%

7.11%

7.12%

7.13%

7.16%

7.19%

7.31%

7.32%

7.36%

7.39%

7.41%

7.42%

7.49%

7.82%

7.86%

8.09%

8.20%

OMIGSA Fixed Income Investments Bond Portfolio

Prescient Bond Quant

Stanlib Core Bond Portfolio

Metropolitan Managed Gilt Portfolio

SIM Duration Bond Fund

Pan Africa AM Segregated Domestic Bond

Investment Solutions Pure Fixed Interest Portfolio

Prudential Yield Enhanced Portfolio

Median

Cadiz African Harvest Core Bond

RMBAM Bond Portfolio

Advantage Moderate Bond FOF

Coronation Active Bond Portfolio

Prescient Bond QuantPlus

Investec Dynamic Bond Portfolio

Futuregrowth Yield Enhanced

Tri-Linear Fixed Income

Source: Alexander Forbes

Page 31: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Retail Performanceand New Business

Page 32: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Coronation Personal InvestmentsBusiness performance in 2008

� Industry assets remained flat, but in our niche market declined by 11% to R296bn

� We lost 0.85% market share, to 7.1% as a result of asset losses in

� Strategic Income Fund (clients de-risking to cash, relative underperformance)

� Thematic equity funds (structural changes at multi-manager clients)

� Flexible funds (major client de-risking; underperformance of Absolute Fund)

� Significant switch in assets within retirement funding range to Balanced Plus

� Low but stable market share in domestic and international equity

� Potential (relative) growth areas: managed funds, domestic equity, international

� Balanced and Equity relative performance exceptional over short and long term

� Conditions will remain extremely tough until fear leaves the markets

Page 33: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

CIS industryDistribution of assets by niche market

Source: ACI Quarterly Statistics, Sep.08/Sep.07

Assets Under Management Sept 08 Sept 07

Long-term single manager net flows 294,834 330,616

Fund of Funds 66,553 67,455

Institutional Multi-Managers 36,983 34,885

Institutional Single Managers 107,198 108,352

Money market & Enhanced cash 171,870 147,509

Dividend income funds 37,299 27,561

Total: 714,737 716,378

Page 34: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

CIS industryMarket share: Long-term single managers only Ranking excl. cash and dividend income funds

Source: ACI Quarterly Statistics, Sept 08 / Sept 07

% Movement Market share Sept 08 Sept 07

1 � Allan Gray 1.02% 23.0% 67,936 72,796

2 � Investec (0.02)% 12.7% 37,494 42,117

3 � Old Mutual (1.29)% 9.3% 27,395 34,976

4 � Nedgroup (0.13)% 8.3% 24,414 27,806

5 � Stanlib (1.24)% 8.2% 24,264 31,319

6 ���� Coronation (0.85)% 7.1% 20,969 26,310

7 � RMB 1.04% 6.3% 18,553 17,356

8 � Sanlam (0.23)% 4.7% 13,937 16,400

9 � Metropolitan 0.24% 2.5% 7,297 7,389

10 � Oasis Crescent 0.09% 2.3% 6,901 7,425

11 � Satrix 0.13% 2.3% 6,862 7,252

12 � Prudential 0.30% 2.1% 6,050 5,777

13 � Absa 0.28% 1.4% 4,090 3,671

CIS Industry 294,834 330,616

Page 35: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Unit trust assetsR22.8bn as at 30 September 2008

Net Flows:

12 months to September 2008:

Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion

Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Financial: -R627 million

Balanced Plus &

Balanced Defensive: R900 million

International funds, 1,935 8.5%

Equity funds, 3,66116.0%

Managed funds, 10,058 44.0%

Cash funds, 1,8368.0%

Fixed interest funds, 5,363

23.5%

Page 36: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Prospects

Page 37: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Dramatic recent developments

� Global financial crisis escalated to a global run on the banks

� Paralysed banking system was in need of desperate rescue measures

� Several large financial firms have gone bankrupt

� Markets sold-off aggressively

� Co-ordinated global efforts to provide liquidity to banking system and confidence to

financial markets

Page 38: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Global stock markets in US$

-7.3%-46.8%MSCI World

-6.1%-63.7%MSCI EM

-8.9%-60.8%South Africa (ALSI)

+1.1%-66.8%India

+5.2%-70.3%China

-14.9%-77.9%-Russia

-2.5%-54.1%German Dax

-9.5%-45.5%Nikkei

-9.1%-54.1%UK FTSE 100

-8.1%-42.7%US S&P

3 year CAGRDecline from peak

Updated: 24 October 2008

Page 39: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Don’t let yourself get too negative after a big sell-off…

Markets always turn before the underlying economy…

…usually at the point of maximum pessimism

Markets always turn before the underlying economy…

…usually at the point of maximum pessimism

Source: I-Net Bridge

Page 40: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Global equities

MSCI World

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

MSCI World

Source: Datastream

The last time equity ratings were this low was early 1980s

Page 41: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Dividend yields now higher thanbond yields in Europe

European Valuations

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Jan-73

Sep-74

May-76

Jan-78

Sep-79

May-81

Jan-83

Sep-84

May-86

Jan-88

Sep-89

May-91

Jan-93

Sep-94

May-96

Jan-98

Sep-99

May-01

Jan-03

Sep-04

May-06

Jan-08

Nov-08

0

2

4

6

8

10

12Div Yield - Bond Yield

Germany long bond yield

European dividend yield

Opportunity looks bigger than that of early 80s, 87, 98 and 2003………

Page 42: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Business implications

� Rationale for active management self-evident

� Significant opportunities to deliver good returns for clients

� Ideal opportunity to build track records in new products

� Lead times on new initiatives extended

� Period of consolidation

Page 43: 2008 Results Reviewed - Coronation · R22.8bn as at 30 September 2008 Net Flows: 12 months to September 2008: Strategic Income: -R1.5 billion Capital Plus/Absolute: -R1.1 billion

Thank you