2008 Presidential Election Polls2008 Presidential Election PollsFebruary 5February 5thth states states

CaliforniaCalifornia

IllinoisIllinois

TennesseeTennesseeNew YorkNew York

New JerseyNew Jersey

Information retrieved fromInformation retrieved from

Just a Few on TuesdayJust a Few on Tuesday

Sen. Joe Biden Sen. Hillary ClintonSen. Joe Biden Sen. Hillary Clinton Sen. Chris DoddSen. Chris Dodd

Sen. John EdwardsSen. John Edwards Sen. Mike Grave Rep. Dennis Kucinich Sen. Mike Grave Rep. Dennis Kucinich

Sen. Barack Obama Gov. Bill RichardsonSen. Barack Obama Gov. Bill Richardson

The Road to the White House:The Road to the White House: Meet The Democratic CandidatesMeet The Democratic Candidates

The Road to the White House:The Road to the White House: Meet The Republican CandidatesMeet The Republican Candidates

Mayor Rudy Giuliani Gov. Mike Huckabee Rep. Duncan HunterMayor Rudy Giuliani Gov. Mike Huckabee Rep. Duncan Hunter

Sen. John McCain Rep. Ron Paul Gov. Mitt RomneySen. John McCain Rep. Ron Paul Gov. Mitt Romney

Rep. Tom Tancredo Sen. Fred ThompsonRep. Tom Tancredo Sen. Fred Thompson

• Frontloaded CalendarFrontloaded Calendar– Early start, prospect of significant gap between clinching the Early start, prospect of significant gap between clinching the

nomination and the party conventionnomination and the party convention– Need to raise unprecedented amounts of money to compete in Need to raise unprecedented amounts of money to compete in

what is essentially a national primary--$100 million in 2007 alonewhat is essentially a national primary--$100 million in 2007 alone– Retail politics at outset, namely in Iowa and New Hampshire, to Retail politics at outset, namely in Iowa and New Hampshire, to

lesser extent in South Carolinalesser extent in South Carolina– SC and Nevada added to mix this year to increase racial SC and Nevada added to mix this year to increase racial

representation of the fieldrepresentation of the field– Wyoming, Michigan, and Florida refused to obey orders, Wyoming, Michigan, and Florida refused to obey orders,

instigating further frontloadinginstigating further frontloading– Iowa kicks off the process on January 3Iowa kicks off the process on January 3rdrd, followed by New , followed by New

Hampshire on Tuesday.Hampshire on Tuesday.

The Road to the White House:The Road to the White House:Early Caucuses and PrimariesEarly Caucuses and Primaries

– Super Tuesday emerged in 1988 as an attempt to avoid 1984 Super Tuesday emerged in 1988 as an attempt to avoid 1984 Democratic disaster---3 candidates split vote in 15 statesDemocratic disaster---3 candidates split vote in 15 states

– Tsunami Tuesday, February 5th, identified by Democratic Tsunami Tuesday, February 5th, identified by Democratic Party as earliest date for primary with exceptions for IA, NH, Party as earliest date for primary with exceptions for IA, NH, SC and NV—20 states, including Illinois, circled this dateSC and NV—20 states, including Illinois, circled this date

– Implications:Implications:• Big states, many media markets, shift away from retailBig states, many media markets, shift away from retail• Majority of delegates available, potential to clinch Majority of delegates available, potential to clinch

nominationnomination• Crowded field, particularly GOP with no clear frontrunner, Crowded field, particularly GOP with no clear frontrunner,

could split delegates and extend racecould split delegates and extend race

The Road to the White House:The Road to the White House:Tsunami TuesdayTsunami Tuesday

• Horse race/inside baseball aspect of campaignHorse race/inside baseball aspect of campaign

• Focus on frontrunnersFocus on frontrunners

• Little attention to issues, candidate comparisons, Little attention to issues, candidate comparisons, and qualifications for officeand qualifications for office

• Top issue in the news since start of year, but only Top issue in the news since start of year, but only 25% of the public has tuned in25% of the public has tuned in

• Press determines candidate viabilityPress determines candidate viability

– Focus on polls and fundraisingFocus on polls and fundraising

• Tone of coverage leads to perception of biasTone of coverage leads to perception of bias

The Road to the White House:The Road to the White House: Press Coverage Press Coverage

The Road to the White House:

Tsunami Tuesday– Future Fixes:

• Delaware Plan: – 4 blocs of states divided by population (smallest to largest)

– Month-long window for each grouping (March-June)

The Road to the White House:

Tsunami Tuesday– Future Fixes:

• Rotating Regional Primary

• National Primary

• National Primary in June with early voting starting January 1st and regular updates

– Future Fixes:Future Fixes:• Delaware Plan: Delaware Plan:

–4 blocs of states divided by 4 blocs of states divided by population (smallest to largest)population (smallest to largest)

–Month-long window for each Month-long window for each grouping (March-June)grouping (March-June)

The Road to the White House:The Road to the White House:Tsunami TuesdayTsunami Tuesday

• Strategic Selection of Sites: red/blue paradigmStrategic Selection of Sites: red/blue paradigm– Democrats in DenverDemocrats in Denver– GOP in St. PaulGOP in St. Paul

• Conventions have essentially become infomercials that Conventions have essentially become infomercials that network TV covers only in parts—formerly excellent network TV covers only in parts—formerly excellent mechanisms of socialization for young peoplemechanisms of socialization for young people

• Potential that Tsunami Tuesday could lead to first floor Potential that Tsunami Tuesday could lead to first floor fight since 1976 GOP Conventionfight since 1976 GOP Convention– Problem: current set-up is ill-equipped to determine Problem: current set-up is ill-equipped to determine

nomineenominee• More probable dilemma: the longest general election More probable dilemma: the longest general election

campaign in history where those who have tuned in are campaign in history where those who have tuned in are alienated from the processalienated from the process

The Road to the White House:The Road to the White House: Party Conventions Party Conventions

The Electoral College

• Each state has as many electors as it has Senators and Representatives

• Each state’s legislature decides how its electors are chosen

• 48 states and DC use a “winner take all” method of assigning delegates

Electoral College

• 538 votes are in the electoral college

• 270 votes are needed to win the election

• In case of a tie or no majority, the House of Reps chooses the President and the Senate chooses the VP

Flaws in the Electoral College

• Winner of the popular vote may not become president (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000?)

• Nothing requires a State’s presidential electors to vote for the candidate that wins the popular vote in that state

• A 3rd party candidate could put an election into the House of Reps

The Electoral College

• Common complaints about it:– Its winner-take-all feature. If a candidate wins a

state by one vote, he or she wins all the state's electors.

– The winner-take-all system favors the large-population states. Ironically, at the same time, the smallest states are over-represented.

– Electors are not constitutionally bound. There have been only about a dozen electors who have not followed the voters' instruction in their states.

Ideas to Replace the Electoral College

• District Plan: electors would represent congressional districts and support the popular vote winner in their district

• The winner of the state at large would get 2 electoral votes

• Used by Nebraska and Maine

Ideas to Replace the Electoral College

• The Proportional Plan: each candidate would receive the same share of the State’s electoral vote as he received of its popular vote

• Proposed recently in Colorado and California

Ideas to Replace the Electoral College

• Direct Popular Election: The voters directly elect the President.

• Would require Constitutional Amendment

Ideas to Replace the Electoral College

• Adds to the current system by giving “bonus” electoral votes to the popular vote winner.

• The state would automatically award its electors to the national popular vote winner.

• Being considered by Maryland and many other state legislatures

• A mere three states shifted their allegiance A mere three states shifted their allegiance in 2004 from 2000: IA, NM, and NHin 2004 from 2000: IA, NM, and NH

• As we all know, in 2000 FL decided the As we all know, in 2000 FL decided the election; in 2004 it was OH; some pundits election; in 2004 it was OH; some pundits predict that the 2008 battleground will be predict that the 2008 battleground will be PA, others suggest MN and WI, with both PA, others suggest MN and WI, with both scenarios conceding OH to the Democratsscenarios conceding OH to the Democrats

• Ballot measure in CA, if successful, could Ballot measure in CA, if successful, could result in the transfer of roughly 20 result in the transfer of roughly 20 electoral votes to the GOP candidateelectoral votes to the GOP candidate

The Road to the White House:The Road to the White House: Electoral College Electoral College

The Road to the White House:The Road to the White House:Polling Data: Democrats (NationalPolling Data: Democrats (National)

The Road to the White House:The Road to the White House:Polling Data: Republicans (National)Polling Data: Republicans (National)

CaliforniaCalifornia

CaliforniaCalifornia

PollsterPollster ClintonClinton ObamaObama

RasmussenRasmussen

Reuters/C-Span/Reuters/C-Span/ZogbyZogby

SuffolkSuffolk

44%44%

41%41%

39%39%

45%45%

45%45%

40%40%

CaliforniaCalifornia

CaliforniaCalifornia

PollsterPollster HuckabeeHuckabee RomneyRomney PaulPaul

RasmussenRasmussen

Reuters/Reuters/C-Span/C-Span/ZogbyZogby

SuffolkSuffolk

McCainMcCain

10%10%

12%12%

8%8%

38%38%

34%34%

39%39%

38%38%

37%37%

24%24%

6%6%

5%5%

10%10%

IllinoisIllinois

IllinoisIllinois

PollsterPollster ClintonClinton ObamaObama

Survey USASurvey USA

Tribune/WGNTribune/WGN

ARGARG

30%30%

24%24%

40%40%

66%66%

55%55%

51%51%

IllinoisIllinois

IllinoisIllinois

PollsterPollster HuckabeeHuckabee McCainMcCain RomneyRomney PaulPaul

Survey USASurvey USA

Tribune/WGNTribune/WGN

ARGARG

17%17%

15%15%

3%3%

46%46%

43%43%

48%48%

8%8%

4%4%

3%3%

25%25%

20%20%

34%34%

New YorkNew York

PollsterPollster ClintonClinton ObamaObama

New YorkNew York

PPP (D)PPP (D)

Survey USASurvey USA

QuinnipiacQuinnipiac

51%51%

56%56%

53%53%

32%32%

38%38%

39%39%

New YorkNew York

New YorkNew York

PollsterPollster HuckabeeHuckabee McCainMcCain RomneyRomney PaulPaul

PPP (D)PPP (D)

Survey USASurvey USA

QuinnipiacQuinnipiac

9%9%

8%8%

9%9%

49%49%

56%56%

54%54%

5%5%

4%4%

5%5%

24%24%

23%23%

22%22%

New JerseyNew Jersey

PollsterPollster ClintonClinton ObamaObama

New JerseyNew Jersey

Survey USASurvey USA

Strategic Vision (R) Strategic Vision (R)

QuinnipiacQuinnipiac

52%52%

47%47%

48%48%

41%41%

41%41%

35%35%

New JerseyNew Jersey

New JerseyNew Jersey

PollsterPollster HuckabeeHuckabee McCainMcCain RomneyRomney PaulPaul

Survey USASurvey USA

Strategic Vision (R) Strategic Vision (R)

QuinnipiacQuinnipiac

7%7%

10%10%

6%6%

54%54%

55%55%

52%52%

25%25%

25%25%

30%30%

6%6%

4%4%

6%6%

TennesseeTennessee

PollsterPollster ClintonClinton ObamaObama

TennesseeTennessee

PPP (D)PPP (D)

Insider AdvantageInsider Advantage

RasmussenRasmussen

56%56%

55%55%

49%49%

34%34%

35%35%

35%35%

TennesseeTennessee

TennesseeTennessee

PollsterPollster HuckabeeHuckabee McCainMcCain RomneyRomney PaulPaul

PPP (D)PPP (D)

Insider AdvantageInsider Advantage

RasmussenRasmussen

28%28%

30%30%

23%23%

34%34%

32%32%

32%32%

22%22%

29%29%

18%18%

7%7%

6%6%

8%8%