2008 - Ny Presentation Companys Overview For The Regional And Mid Capacity Jets.

57
Commercial Jets Market Overview Commercial Jets Market Overview Luiz S. Chiessi VP Market Intelligence – Airline Market Jul/2008 Jul/2008

Transcript of 2008 - Ny Presentation Companys Overview For The Regional And Mid Capacity Jets.

Page 1: 2008 - Ny   Presentation Companys Overview For The Regional And Mid Capacity Jets.

Commercial Jets

Market Overview

Commercial Jets

Market Overview

Luiz S. Chiessi

VP Market Intelligence – Airline Market

Jul/2008Jul/2008

Page 2: 2008 - Ny   Presentation Companys Overview For The Regional And Mid Capacity Jets.

This presentation includes forward-looking statements or statements about events or circumstances which have not occurred. We have based these forward-looking statements largely on our current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends affecting our business and our future financial performance. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including, among other things: general economic, political and business conditions, both in Brazil and in our market.

The words “believes,” “may,” “will,” “estimates,” “continues,” “anticipates,” “intends,”“expects” and similar words are intended to identify forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligations to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements because of new information, future events or other factors. In light of these risks and uncertainties, the forward-looking events and circumstances discussed in this presentation might not occur. Our actual results could differ substantially from those anticipated in our forward-looking statements.

Forward Looking StatementForward Looking Statement

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� Air Transport Industry Review

� RJ50 Market & the ERJ145 Family

� 70 to 120-seat Market & the E-Jets

� Competitive Scenario

Contents

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Air Transport

Industry Review

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Some relief in fuel price for 2009 / 2010?Some relief in fuel price for 2009 / 2010?

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Estimated US GDP Growth (as of Jun 2008)Estimated US GDP Growth (as of Jun 2008)

Quarter over Quarter Growth % (Annualized Rates)

1.81.61.80.2

Prior Survey Results (May/08)

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Emerging EconomiesEmerging Economies

World Real GDP Share (Measured in Yr2000 US$ PPP)

Emerging economies increasing their share of global output

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1997 2007 2017 2027

Other AdvancedEconomies

Japan

United States

Eurozone

Other EmergingEconomies

India

China

Source: Global Insight (Jun/08)

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-6.7

-2.6

2.8

-2.8

-4.2

1.6 1.82.1

0.61.2

0.8 0.90.4

-0.3

0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2

-0.1-0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3-0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7

-4.1

-0.5

5.6

-2.3

-6.1

-0.4

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2005 2006 2007 2008F 2008F

North America Europe Asia-Pacific Middle East Latin America Africa Global

Industry Net ResultsIndustry Net Results

Source: IATA Economics Jun/08 (ICAO data to 2007 and IATA Forecast 2008-2009)

Values in US$ BillionGlobal and US net results includes restructuring costs and

excludes United Airlines ‘fresh-start’ accounting losses and gains

Scenario 1

US$80-120

per barrel

Scenario 2

US$120-140

per barrel

Profitability is not expected to be achieved until 2010 or later

US

$ B

illio

n

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What can we expect?What can we expect?

• World air transport demand keeps growing despite US

slowdown

• More consolidation, merges and less start-ups

• Capacity cuts (mainly in the US)

• Fare increases & slowdown in demand

• Additional quest for efficiency: cost cuts, higher LFs and

higher aircraft utilization

• Early retirement of older jets

• Better match of aircraft capacity to a lower demand

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RJ50s & the

ERJ145 Family

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ERJ 145 Family Order Book

4169275733ERJ 145

41

0

0

FirmBacklog

87475915Total

74074ERJ 140

1080108ERJ 135

DeliveriesOptionsFirm

Orders

(June 30th, 2008)

September, 2007

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Dec 1998Dec 1998

Dec 1999Dec 1999

Aug 2000Aug 2000

Dec 1996Dec 1996

First DeliveryFirst Delivery

May 2003May 2003Mar 2001Mar 2001 Sep 2001Sep 2001 May 2002May 2002 Feb 2005Feb 2005May 2004May 2004

1,000 ERJ Platforms Already Delivered

September, 2007September, 2007

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0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

5-2

5

26-5

0

51-7

5

76-1

00

101-

150

151-

200

201-

300

>30

0Market Density (PDEW)

An

nu

al

Fli

gh

ts

RJ50s – Market Density Profile

US Domestic (2007)

Source: BACK / OD1A 2007

76-100

7%

101-150

10%

151-200

5%

>200

19%

5-25

29%

26-50

19%51-75

11%

% 2007 RJ50 Flightsper Market Density (PDEW Class)

Almost 60% of all RJ50 flights served low density markets

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US Hub & Spoke – RJ50 Importance

Regional Carriers Passenger Type Breakdown

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

5-2

5

26

-50

51

-75

76

-10

0

10

1-1

50

15

1-2

00

20

1-3

00

RJ

30

-60

Connecting Passenger Local Passenger

RJ50 is a fundamental feeder of network operations, especially in low

density markets (two connecting passengers for each local passengers)

Source: BACK - RJ50 operations with 1 coupon

3:1 2:1 1:1 1:1 1:1 1:2 1:2 2:1

PDEW

:

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RJ50 – Importance to the Air Transport SystemRJ50 – Importance to the Air Transport System

Feeding system is vital for Airline´s Success

Seabury Group – FAA Forecast Conference (Mar 11, 2008)

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

RJ50 Presence

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Source: US DOT (T100)

RJ50 – Relevance to the US Transport SystemRJ50 – Relevance to the US Transport System

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000 2007

Pax E

np

lan

em

en

ts (

Mil

lio

ns)

Other Aircraft RJ50

RJ50s carried more than 90 mi passengers (13% of all US domestic)

2/3 of all RJ50 passengers (~61 millions) are connecting

CAGR: 25.1%

CAGR: 0.1%

3% 13%RJ50 - % of all US domestic enplanements

US Domestic (2007)

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0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000

2008

E

2000

2008

E

2000

2008

E

2000

2008

E

2000

2008

E

2000

2008

E

AS

M O

ffere

d

30-60 61-90

US Regionals: Trend to higher capacity aircraft

Capacity Share by Jet Capacity Segment

Source: BACK (not considered AVRO operation in 2000 for Northwest)

Backlog:

NW: 12 E175

15 CRJ900

DL: 17 CRJ900

UA: 14 CRJ700

SKYW: 18 CRJ700

4 CRJ900

REP: 17 E175

Source: EMB (as of Jun 2008)BBD (as of Apr 2008)

Skywest Airlines regional operations: CO, DL and UA Republic Airways regional operations: AA, CO, DL, UA and US

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$0,00

$0,04

$0,08

$0,12

$0,16

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Distance (sm)

Aircraft Direct Operating Cost

$0,00

$0,04

$0,08

$0,12

$0,16

Jet 50 Jet 158

Most of the operating cost difference between small jets and big jets is

due to the distance they fly, not the airplane size.

-42%

CA

SM

($

)

-12%

As reported. Adjusted for distance (409 sm).

Source: US form 41 - fiscal year ending 3Q07Airplane variable + ownership cost

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$0,00

$0,04

$0,08

$0,12

$0,16

Jet 50 Jet 158

Source: US form 41 - fiscal year ending 3Q07Airplane variable + ownership cost

Fuel Price Impact on Aircraft Cost

Rising fuel prices affect big airplanes as much as small airplanes.

CA

SM

($

)

19%

21%

Fuel at $2 Fuel at $3

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Source: Airlines (Jun/18/08) (*) United Airlines report "North America" figures, what includes transborder flights to Canada.

10 CRJ-200

17 B737-300 ; 4 B757; 4 A3203 to 5% ▲4 to 6% ▲

-5 to -3% ▼Regional

System

23 EMB-120“Some of United’s 737 routes will be down-gauged to 50- to 70-seaters, which are

operated by regional affiliates under the United Express banner”. (Jake Brace, UAL CFO - Merrill Lynch Conf. Jun 18, 2008)

64 B737-300 ; 30 B737-500 ; 6 B7471.5 to 2.5% ▲

0 to 1% ▲

-8 to -7% ▼ (*)

Regional

Mainline

-2% ▼-13% ▼-7% ▼

50 to 55% ▲-9.5 to -8.5% ▼

-13% ▼

3.6% ▲-4.5% ▼

-6.5 to -5.5% ▼-6 to -5% ▼

Domestic

2008 ASM Forecast (compared to 2007)

15 to 17% ▲

4.7% ▲

1 to 2% ▲

International

Adjustments to the fleet, will be made available at a later date. (AC Press Release - Jun 17, 2008)

DomesticTransborderInternational

Regional growth: introduction of 76-seater26 DC-9-30 ; 7 DC-9-40/50; 4 A319 ; 4 A320 ; 6 B757

Regional (4Q08)System (4Q08)

12 ATR-72 ; 60-70 Regional Jets15 MD-80 ; 3 B757 ; 2 B767-300

System (1H08)

3 Beech 1900 ; 24 CRJ-200 ; 30 ERJ135; 10 ERJ14547 B737-300 ; 20 B737-500

RegionalMainline

35 to 40 Regional Jets ; 26 Saab 34055 MD-80 ; 3 A300

RegionalMainline

2008-2012Airline

Aircraft Removal Plan

U.S. Capacity Reduction Plan

• 184 RJ50s to be removed by the end of 2012• RJ50s are essential to feed/support international expansion

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050

100150200250300350400450500

TP

J30-6

0

J61-9

0

J91-1

20

NB

WB

U.S. Airlines Capacity Reductions for 2008U.S. Airlines Capacity Reductions for 2008

• Forecasted Change in ASM

� Network Carriers -20 bln ASM (-2.7%)

� Regional Carriers +3 bln ASM (+3.3%) � mainly from backlog in J70/J80

� Largest Fleet Reduction J140 Segment (-118 units)

2007 2008E

Source: BACK, Airlines and Embraer

ASM (billion)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

TP

J30-6

0

J61-9

0

J91-1

20

NB

WB

Fleet in Service – Number of Aircraft

-1%-2%-33%25%-8%-8%

FIS08E vs. FIS07

Backlog

Removed

-7-91-5283-119-41

14414102020

-8-135-66-19-119-61

Number of aircraft

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Mexico - RJ50 EvolutionMexico - RJ50 Evolution

2004 2007

405 nm405 nmAv. Stage Length

1818Markets

55# Aircraft

ERJ145RJ50

369 nm362 nmAv. Stage Length

78106Markets

2744# Aircraft

ERJ145RJ50

Source: BACK (Dec/07), RJ50 includes ERJ145 and CRJ100/200/440

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RJ50 Market Opportunities – CIS

Yakovlev Yak-4030-seat jet

Aircraft in service

Scheduled Airlines: 176Non-Scheduled Airlines: 110

Average age: 33 years

458 aircraft requiring replacement

Replacement already started: Dniproavia’s ERJ145

Tupolev Tu-13470-seat jet

Aircraft in service

Scheduled Airlines: 135Non-Scheduled Airlines: 37

Average age: 30 years

Source: BACK (Mar/08 – CIS includes Russia)

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20062003

Source: CAAC

RJ50 Evolution in China

China´́́́s RJ aviation is growing at slower pace but has huge potential

196 Markets - 45 A/C 223 Markets - 61 A/C

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

USA

Europe

China

30-120 Seats

120-210 Seats

unbalanced jet fleet11%

33%

42%

% of Fleet

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RJ50 Market Trends

• RJ50 feeder is fundamental to support US hub and spoke system

• High fuel prices forcing airlines to revise RJ50 short-haul and long/thin operations

• Regionals trend towards high capacity aircraft (75 seater)

• Potential US removal of up to 250 RJ50 units in five years

• China will absorb additional new units to achieve a better capacitybalance in its fleet

• Secondary markets will keep expanding – used RJ50s moving to CIS, Mexico, Africa and South America

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70 to 12070 to 120--seat seat

Market & the EMarket & the E--JetsJets

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E-Jets Family Order Book

75217796EMBRAER 195

437

270

46

46

FirmBacklog

410827847Total

161467431EMBRAER 190

88173134EMBRAER 175

140110186EMBRAER 170

DeliveriesOptionsFirm

Orders

(June 30th, 2008)

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Source: BACK, Embraer

E-Jets Deployment - North AmericaE-Jets Deployment - North America

27% 51% 8% 14%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Natural Growth Right-sizing

Direct Replacement New Markets

E-Jets

Jun/08

17 E175

76 E170

37 E175

28 E19019 E190

12 E17524 E175

15 E175

45 E190

126252

69 E19036 E190

BacklogDeliveries

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E-Jets Deployment - Europe/CIS

Source: BACK, Embraer

42% 43% 7% 8%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Natural Growth Right-sizing

Direct Replacement New Markets

1 E190

9 E170 5 E190

6 E190

1 E1951 E195

10 E190

10 E195

5 E1903 E190

5 E1951 E195

30 E190

2 E19512 E195

5 E19010 E170 8 E190

6 E170

E-Jets

Jun/08

95 65

12 E17510 E1706 E175

2 E170

BacklogDeliveries

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8% 78% 15%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Natural Growth Right-sizing New Markets

E-Jets Deployment - Middle East & Africa

Source: BACK, Embraer

8 E1902 E195

7 E170

3 E190

2 E170

1 E1702 E170

6 E1706 E170

15 E170

E-Jets

Jun/08

2733

1 E170

5 E195

2 E175

BacklogDeliveries

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5% 20% 75%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Right-sizing Direct Replacement New Markets

E-Jets Deployment - Asia Pacific & ChinaE-Jets Deployment - Asia Pacific & China

Source: BACK, Embraer

7 E170ETA Star Aviation

2 E170

10 E170

1 E170

1 E1901 E170

1 E190

2 E170

3 E175

1 E1901 E195

6 E190

47 E1903 E190

E-Jets

Jun/08

8426

2 E170

13 E190

4 E170

5 E190

BacklogDeliveries

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E-Jets Deployment - Latin AmericaE-Jets Deployment - Latin America

21% 61% 18%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Natural Growth Right-sizing New Markets

Source: BACK, Embraer

5 E175

20 E195

2 E170

3 E190

36 E195

4 E190

11 E190

2 E170

2 E190 13 E190

4 E1908 E190

E-Jets

Jun/08

7834

1 E175

1 E190

BacklogDeliveries

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27%42%

26%

8%

7%

6%

51%

42%

53%

14% 8% 15%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

North America Europe World

% o

f T

ota

l E

-Je

ts M

ark

ets

Natural Growth Direct Replacement Right-sizing New Markets

E-Jets Deployment – Summary

Source: BACK, Embraer

53% of E-Jets operations: right-sizing of narrowbody services

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Narrow-body Complement - North America

6:00

8:00

10:00

12:00

14:00

16:00

18:00

20:00

22:00

2008436

2007318

Charlotte – Toronto

Seats*

Source: BACK (4Q06) *4th Wednesday of January

20071,033

A319

2008992

Toronto - Halifax

E190A320

A320

A320

A320

A320

A320

A319

E190A320

A319

A319

A319

E190

E190

737-300

737-300

CRJ-200E170

737-300

E175

737-400

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Air Canada – Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference (Jun/2007)

COPY

Domestic

International

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"What could be better if you're looking at a high fuel cost,

increasing passenger ticket price environment, which will

logically lead to decreased demand, than to have the most

efficient, comfortable aircraft in the 100-seat category,

which is the Embraer 190?" Mr. Robert Milton told

reporters after the ACE annual meeting.

The Globe and Mail and Financial Post

Robert Milton (AC) statement on June 30th, 2008Robert Milton (AC) statement on June 30th, 2008

Page 37: 2008 - Ny   Presentation Companys Overview For The Regional And Mid Capacity Jets.

Helsinki - Gothenburg Helsinki - Dusseldorf Helsinki - Warsaw

2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008

Seats Oferred 126 202 304 126 226 278 76 202 252

6:00

E170 E170

8:00 A319 E170 E170

E170 A319

10:00

A319

12:00 E170 E170

14:00

16:00 E170 A320 A319

E170 E190

18:00 A319 E170

E170

20:00 E170

22:00

Midnight

E170/190 at FinnairE170/190 at Finnair

E-Jets Right-sizing at Finnair: 76% of E170/190 markets

18 markets complementing A319/320s ; 11 markets replacing A319/320s/ MD-80s

Source: BACK (Jan/08) *4th Wednesday of January

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E170 at EgyptairE170 at Egyptair

Cairo - Sharm El Sheikh Cairo - Luxor Cairo - Hurghada

2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007

Seats Oferred 756 707 432 780 352 583

6:00 A320 B737-500 A320 A320 A320 A321

B737-500 B737-500 B737-500

8:00 A320 A320 E170 E170

A340 E170

10:00 B737-500

12:00 E170 E170 E170

14:00 B737-500

16:00

E170 E170

18:00 E170

20:00 E170 E170

22:00 A320 E170

A320

Midnight B737-500 B737-500 A321

E-Jets Right-sizing at Egyptair: 52% of E170 routes

2 markets complementing A320/321 ; 4 markets replacing A320/321

Source: BACK (Jan/08) *4th Wednesday of January

Page 39: 2008 - Ny   Presentation Companys Overview For The Regional And Mid Capacity Jets.

E-Jets Interchanged with NarrowbodiesE-Jets Interchanged with Narrowbodies

E-Jets Narrowbodies

Source: BACK

Denver - Montreal1,400 nm

Spring Summer Fall Winter Spring Summer Fall Winter

Apr/06

E-Jets provide year-round network coverage, optimizing fleet

capacity to seasonal market demand

New York City - Portland(JFK-PWM)

274 sm

Spring Summer Fall Winter Spring Summer Fall Winter

Apr/06

Page 40: 2008 - Ny   Presentation Companys Overview For The Regional And Mid Capacity Jets.

Source: BACK (Jan/08)

Efficiency and flexibility also for long haul domestic/transborder markets

Toronto - Seattle

1,783 nm; 4:57 (1 Daily)

Boston - Austin

1,470 nm; 4:17 (1 Daily)

Chicago - Edmonton

1,231 nm; 3:39 (2 Daily)

Philadelphia - Houston

1,150 nm; 3:41 (4 Daily)

Minneapolis - Vancouver

1,243 nm; 3:44 (1 Daily)

Denver - Los Cabos

1,040 nm; 3:06 (1 Daily)

Atlanta - Queretaro

1,154 nm; 3:38 (1/2 Daily)

E-Jets Deployment in Long Haul MarketsE-Jets Deployment in Long Haul Markets

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Fuel & Maintenance Cost Savings vs. Older JetsFuel & Maintenance Cost Savings vs. Older Jets

$0

$500

$1.000

$1.500

$2.000

$2.500

$3.000

$3.500

$4.000

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Additional Fuel Burn (%) vs. E170

Ad

dit

ion

al A

nn

ua

l C

os

t (U

S$

-

tho

us

an

ds

) V

s. E

17

0

E175

F70

BAe 146-100

BAe 146-200

AVRO RJ-85

DC-9-10

500 nm Sector, Full Pax, Network Environment (3,200 annual BH), Jet Fuel Price $3.00/gallon

E170/175 can offer up to US$ 2.2 million yearly fuel savings and up to

US$ 1.3 million maintenance cost savings

Page 42: 2008 - Ny   Presentation Companys Overview For The Regional And Mid Capacity Jets.

500 nm Sector, Full Pax, Network Environment (3,200 annual BH), Jet Fuel Price $3.00/gallon

$0

$500

$1.000

$1.500

$2.000

$2.500

$3.000

$3.500

$4.000

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Additional Fuel Burn (%) vs. E190

Ad

dit

ion

al A

nn

ua

l C

os

t (U

S$

-

tho

us

an

ds

) V

s. E

19

0

E195

717

F100

737-500

737-300

DC-9-30

MD-87

Fuel & Maintenance Cost Savings vs. Older Jets

E190/195 can offer up to US$ 2.7 million yearly fuel savings and up to

US$ 1.2 million maintenance cost savings

Page 43: 2008 - Ny   Presentation Companys Overview For The Regional And Mid Capacity Jets.

26% of 61-120 fleet

(666 acft) with more

than 20 years

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 >35

Age (Years)

Nu

mb

er

of

Air

cra

ft

Source: BACK (Dec/07)

World Fleet Age Profile (61-120 seats): 2,582 jets / 14 years average age

142,582World

929China

19215Asia Pacific

1379Middle East

22143Africa

24272Russia & CIS

11655Europe

22305Latin America

8884North America

Avg. Age

# Acft.Region

Nearly 700 aircraft (26% of fleet) need replacement in the coming years.

Retirement cycle may be antecipated due to fuel costs and environment.

Market Opportunities - ReplacementMarket Opportunities - Replacement

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1 2 3 4 9 14 19 29 45 50Customers/Operators

60

110 112 118

245

343

440

764

847

619

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun/ 08

Accu

mu

late

d F

irm

Ord

ers

Source: Embraer

Deliveries

E-Jets Customer Base EvolutionE-Jets Customer Base Evolution

ETA Star

Aviation

Page 45: 2008 - Ny   Presentation Companys Overview For The Regional And Mid Capacity Jets.

E-Jets Worldwide Distribution

Growing and diversified customer-base across five continents.

Increased presence in emerging markets with established carriers.

14%

19%

47%

13%

7%

Asia Pacific /China

Middle East /Africa

Europe/CIS

Latin America

North America

21%

26%

19%17%

17%

Customers Firm Orders

Source: Embraer (Jun/08)

Page 46: 2008 - Ny   Presentation Companys Overview For The Regional And Mid Capacity Jets.

E-Jets - Efficiency to all Business Models

Source: Embraer (Jun/08 ; Sirte Oil, GECAS and Jetscape not presented)

Regional Network Low Cost

Charter

ETA Star

Aviation

Page 47: 2008 - Ny   Presentation Companys Overview For The Regional And Mid Capacity Jets.

4%

19%

15%34%

28%

Embraer Worldwide Backlog Distribution

Increased presence in emerging markets.

Emerging Countries

North America

Western Europe

Latin America

ROW

Backlog (437 aircraft)

Source: Embraer (Jun/08)

Emerging Coutries: China, India, Brazil, Emerging Europe (Central Europe & the Balkans + CIS); Latin America does not include Brazil

Page 48: 2008 - Ny   Presentation Companys Overview For The Regional And Mid Capacity Jets.

Competitive

Scenario

Page 49: 2008 - Ny   Presentation Companys Overview For The Regional And Mid Capacity Jets.

Source: BACK – OAG (4Q07)

45%

12%

43%

27%

13%

60%

Narrowbody Regional Jet Monopoly

Large CRJs

171 Markets

E-Jets

93 Markets

E-Jets vs. Large CRJs Competitive ProfileE-Jets vs. Large CRJs Competitive Profile

E-Jets are clearly being used by airlines to compete against narrowbodyaircraft; CRJs are being more used in monopoly routes.

Page 50: 2008 - Ny   Presentation Companys Overview For The Regional And Mid Capacity Jets.

Backlog Evolution ComparisonBacklog Evolution Comparison

Source: Embraer, Bombardier, ACAS

E-Jets have a strong competitive position ���� price premium

245

297

322

410430 437

111 10584 76

165175

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun/08

Ba

ck

log

- N

um

be

r o

f A

irc

raft

E-Jets Backlog

CRJ 700/900/1000 Backlog

Page 51: 2008 - Ny   Presentation Companys Overview For The Regional And Mid Capacity Jets.

T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t

Competition: E-Jets vs. New players

China and countrieswith Chinese influence.

FB: Higher

COC: Higher

DOC: ?

Product: Conventional

Risk: Moderate

Supp.: from scratch

ARJ21x E175

Product: New Concept

Risk: High

Supp.: from scratch

Product: Conventional

Risk: Moderate

Supp.: from scratch

Overview

Eastern Europe, maybealso Western Europe(political reasons).

FB: Similar

COC: Similar

DOC: Lower

SSJ 95x E190

Initially to be proved in Japan/ Asia Pacific.

FB: Lower

COC: Similar

DOC: ?

MRJ 90x E175

Fuel/ COC/ DOC

vs. E-Jets

Potential MarketsAircraft

Page 52: 2008 - Ny   Presentation Companys Overview For The Regional And Mid Capacity Jets.

Embraer´s views on CSeries Value PropositionsEmbraer´s views on CSeries Value Propositions

• The most significant propositions of the CSeries are:• Lower Engine SFC• Lower External Noise

• Estimated impacts on aircraft efficiency:• OEW: 5.5 tons heavier than E195 (vs. C110)• Wet Area: 11.7% larger than E195

• Other offsets may come from new technologies risks: • New platform design and full FBW lacking strong experience• High composite level on high cycle aircraft• New engine with new technology

• Most part of the SFC benefit is cancelled by the “family” requirements:• Optimization point is on C130 (C110 with same engine / structure)• Longer range (C110 capability exceeds 3,000 nm)• Accomodation for future “C150” needs

Page 53: 2008 - Ny   Presentation Companys Overview For The Regional And Mid Capacity Jets.

Market Share - World (30-60 seats)

45

32

17

7

52

48 47 45 46 4745 4748

47

5252

48

5556 55 54 53

68

83

93

53 53 53

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun/08

(%)

Embraer: ERJ 145/140/135

Bombardier: CRJ100/200/440

Page 54: 2008 - Ny   Presentation Companys Overview For The Regional And Mid Capacity Jets.

Market Share - World (61-120 seats)

2

32

52

38

232122

17

4546464444

4032

3639

38

4442

33 34

25

579

11

100 100 99

60

28

17 16 16

44

1216

2129

30

4

698

4

7

25 42 2 10

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun/08

(%)

Embraer: 170/175/190/195

Bombardier: CRJ700/900/1000

Airbus: A318

Boeing: B737-600

AVIC I: ARJ-21

Sukhoi: Superjet 100

Antonov: An-148

Mitsubishi: MRJ90

Page 55: 2008 - Ny   Presentation Companys Overview For The Regional And Mid Capacity Jets.

Market Share - World (30-120 seats)

59

52

47

1 2

454242

4438

34

24

11

5

464747

45

45

43

52

44

4850505150

44

51

44

233

3

3738

23

14

84 4 4

2 2345

88

223

222

4

121 1 10

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun/08

(%)

Embraer: ERJ 145/140/135 ; Embraer 170/175/190/195

Bombardier: CRJ100/200/440/700/900/1000

Airbus: A318

Boeing: B737-600

AVIC I: ARJ-21

Sukhoi: Superjet 100

Antonov: An-148

Mitsubishi: MRJ90

Page 56: 2008 - Ny   Presentation Companys Overview For The Regional And Mid Capacity Jets.

#

US Parked

Acft by Equip

(2001-2000)

17DC-10-30

19737-700

22FOKKER 100

23737-300

25MD-82

29DC-9-30

105737-200

106727-200

During slowdown periods, smaller aircraft help airlines keeping market

presence and are more part of the solution than of the problem.

Page 57: 2008 - Ny   Presentation Companys Overview For The Regional And Mid Capacity Jets.

E-Jets around the world: 48 Airlines / 34 Countries

E-Jets around the world: 48 Airlines / 34 Countries

Star

*

Thank You

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