2007:United Nations Common Country Assessmen
-
Upload
econsultbw -
Category
Documents
-
view
235 -
download
0
Transcript of 2007:United Nations Common Country Assessmen
PREPARATION OF SECOND COMMON COUNTRY ASSESSMENT FOR BOTSWANA
SOCIO-ECONOMIC REVIEW & KEY DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES
Structure of Presentation
� Introduction: the CCA Process
� Highlights of Socio-economic Review� Economic structure & growth
� Household incomes
� Labour force & unemployment
� Poverty� Poverty
� Demographic issues
� Health & education
� Governance, social & human rights issues
� Data Issues
� Socio-economic challenges
� Gender highlights
� Environmental Sustainability Issues & Challenges
Introduction
Introduction: Common Country Assessment
The CCA is the common instrument of the UN for analysing the national development situation and identifying key development issues with a focus on the MDGs and the other commitments, goals and targets of the Millennium Declaration and the international conferences, summits, conventions and human rights conferences, summits, conventions and human rights instruments of the UN system.
Its purpose is to foster deeper knowledge of key development challenges among the partners involved based on a common analysis and understanding of the development situation of a country and a people-centred approach. It therefore provides a programming framework for all United Nations agencies
Introduction: CCA
� The Common Country Assessment (CCA) provides the basis for the United Nations System in Botswana to prepare its Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF)
� 2nd UNDAF (2010-2014) will run in parallel with NDP10
� CCA comprises:� CCA comprises:
� an analysis of the existing development situation in Botswana
� a review of policies, programmes and key development issues
� Based on a shared understanding of the issues, with Government and other stakeholders
� CCA identifies challenges that UN can assist in addressing
CCA Methodology
� CCA is primarily a desktop-based literature review based on existing published materials and data
� No new data collection, limited analysis of existing data
� Guided by review and inputs from Reference Group, Stakeholder Workshop & UN Reader Group, to:
� Ensure that CCA reflects national needs & challenges
� Integrate with UN’s own principles and objectives
� Assist with prioritisation of issues and areas for future UN assistance
CCA Deliverables
� Five deliverables:
1. Identification of key development challenges
2. Socio-economic review/situation analysis
3. Overview of key socio-economic indicators3. Overview of key socio-economic indicators
4. Stakeholder workshop
5. Draft CCA document
� Items 1-4 provide the basis for the CCA (5)
Content of Major Outputs
� Socio-economic review:
� Developments in incomes (national, sectoral) & poverty
� Key trends in inequality and access to incomes, employment, financial services and assets;
� Review major economic and social policy and reform processes
� International and national development commitments of Botswana (Vision & MDGs)
� Dataset:
� Use official data sources as far as possible
� based on MDG template
� Disaggregation according geography, gender, language & other socio-economic variables
Timeline – Major Milestones
Milestone Date
Project commences June 25
Inception report – submission July 30
Inception report – reference group August 8
Desk review first draft – submission August 24
Desk review first draft – reference group September 13
Desk review second draft – submission September 27
Stakeholder workshop October 4
Draft CCA document – submission October 21
Draft CCA document – reference group November 14
Final CCA document - submission November 16
Consultancy Team
� Dr Keith Jefferis
� Managing Director, Econsult Botswana (Pty) Ltd
� Economist, Team Leader
� Dr Godisang MookodiSenior Lecturer in Sociology, UB� Senior Lecturer in Sociology, UB
� Gender specialist
� Dr Jaap Arntzen� Managing Director, Centre for Applied Research (CAR)
� Environmental Economist
� Research Assistants from Econsult & CAR
Objectives of Stakeholder Workshop
� To solicit comments on draft report
� To ensure that report reflects a broad-based understanding of socio-economic situation and development challengesdevelopment challenges
� To identify areas that may benefit from UN assistance and support under 2nd UNDAF
Socio-economic Review - Highlights
Highlights of Socio-economic Review
� Economic structure & growth
� Household incomes
� Labour force & unemployment
� Poverty� Poverty
� Demographic issues
� Health & education
� Governance, social & human rights issues
GDP Growth – Long Term
15
20
25� Botswana’s economic
growth has been on a long-term downward trend
-5
0
5
10%
� Recent growth trend around 5%
Structure of GDP
Agric2%
Govt.17%
Soc. & pers.
Services4%
� Mining still dominant; together with government accounts for well over half of GDPMining
41%
Manuf.3%Water &
elec.3%
Constr.4%
Trade etc.11%
Transport4%
Banks etc.11%
GDP
� Diversification objective not yet achieved
Sectoral growth, 1995/6 – 2005/6
Banks etc.
Transport
Constr.
Manuf.
Agric � Mining and government fastest growing sectors over past decade
-5% 0% 5% 10%
Mining
Govt.
Water & elec.
Trade etc.
Soc. & pers. serv.
Banks etc.
Average annual growth
� Long-term contraction of agricultural sector
� Slower growth in sectors other than mining & government
Highlights of Socio-economic Review
� Economic structure & growth
� Household incomes
� Labour force & unemployment
� Poverty� Poverty
� Demographic issues
� Health & education
� Governance, social & human rights issues
Real Income (P/m, 2006 prices) by Gender of HH and Settlement Type
2000
2500
3000
3500
Male
� HIES data on median HH incomes shows clearly:
� highest average incomes in urban areas; lowest in
0
500
1000
1500Male
Female
All
in urban areas; lowest in rural areas; ratio of 2.6:1
� FHH lower incomes than MHH in urban and UV areas
� FHH incomes 2/3 of MHH incomes nationally
Change in Median Real Household Incomes by Settlement Type, 1993/4 – 2002/3
15%16% � Reasonable real
income growth in towns/cities & urban villages
-15%
Urban Urban Village
Rural
� Real income decline in rural areas
� Deepening contrast between urban/UV and rural income levels
Change in Rural HH real incomes, by income categories
0%
5%
10%� Decline in rural
incomes was not evenly spread;
� Worst affected were
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5% Male
Female
All
� Worst affected were not the poorest but HHs around/above the middle
Household Income by Level of Education of Household Head and Settlement Type, 2002/3
4,000
5,000
6,000
� Clear relationship between incomes and education
� Applies across all
Urban
U/vill
Rural0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Settlement type
Level of education
� Applies across all settlement types
Highlights of Socio-economic Review
� Economic structure & growth
� Household incomes
� Labour force & unemployment
� Poverty� Poverty
� Demographic issues
� Health & education
� Governance, social & human rights issues
Structure of Labour Force
Female
Total
� Nearly have the labour force has paid jobs (unusual for SSA)
� Other half split between self-employed, traditional agric and unemployed
0% 50% 100%
Male
Paid employee
Self-employed/family business
Traditional agriculture
Unemployed
agric and unemployed
� Similar structures for male and female workers
� Poverty concentrated amongst those who do not have formal sector jobs
Unemployment Rate by Gender & Age Group
25
30
35
40
Male
� Clear relationship between age and unemployment
� Majority of
0
5
10
15
20
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65+
Tota
l
% Male
Female
Total
� Majority of unemployed are under 30
� Female unemployment higher than male
Highlights of Socio-economic Review
� Economic structure & growth
� Household incomes
� Labour force & unemployment
� Poverty� Poverty
� Demographic issues
� Health & education
� Governance, social & human rights issues
Poverty Rate (Headcount) by District
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%� Official poverty data
from 2002/03 HIES not yet available
� Analysis of poverty levels published
0%
10%
20% levels published elsewhere shows clear urban-rural divide
� Rural NW & SW have highest poverty rates
� Rural SE & NE have highest poverty numbers
Poverty & Inequality
� Slow decline in poverty levels, becoming increasingly rural
� Comparative international data show that poverty & inequality are high for a country of Botswana’s income level
Factors associated with poverty:� Factors associated with poverty:� Rural areas� Female-headed households� Lack of wage employment� Large families/households� Low levels of education
Highlights of Socio-economic Review
� Economic structure & growth
� Household incomes
� Labour force & unemployment
� Poverty� Poverty
� Demographic issues
� Health & education
� Governance, social & human rights issues
Life Expectancy
55
60
65
70
75� Projections from
Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS study
� Impact of HIV/AIDS clear, as well as positive
40
45
50
55
No AIDS No ART ART CSO
clear, as well as positive impact of ART (+8yrs)
� Contrast with CSO projections
� External “Doomsday” projections (LE<40) not substantiated
Trends in Child Age Cohorts
240
250
260
270
280 � Numbers of children in different age cohorts peaking and then falling in next few years
� Effect likely to be more pronounced in rural areas
200
210
220
230
240
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19
Effect likely to be more pronounced in rural areas due to migration
� Implications for resource planning (esp. education)
� No’s of primary school enrolments already falling
Population Pyramids
60 - 6465 - 69
70 - 7475 - 79
80 - 8485 +
1990
60 - 6465 - 69
70 - 7475 - 79
80 - 8485 +
2007
0 - 45-9
10-1415 -1920 - 24
25 - 2930 - 34
35 - 3940 - 44
45 - 4950 - 5455 - 59
0 - 45-9
10-1415 -1920 - 24
25 - 2930 - 34
35 - 3940 - 44
45 - 4950 - 5455 - 59
Other Demographic Trends
� Declining population growth and fertility rates
� Declining household size
� Rapidly rising no. of orphans
� Continued rural-urban migration
� Rural HHs:� have “old” & “young” but missing “middle”
� larger than average
� higher dependency (children/adult)
� FHHs larger than average
� Low coverage of vital registration (births, deaths)
Highlights of Socio-economic Review
� Economic structure & growth
� Household incomes
� Labour force & unemployment
� Poverty� Poverty
� Demographic issues
� Health & education
� Governance, social & human rights issues
HIV prevalence
20
25
30
35
40
45� Overall HIV
prevalence appears to have peaked, although not a useful indicator in ART environment
0
5
10
15
20
15-19 20-24 25-49 Total
in ART environment
� Longer term decline in younger age groups suggests beneficial impact of awareness campaigns
Child Health
100
120
140
160
1971
0
20
40
60
80
Infant mortality rate Child mortality rate Under 5 mortality
1971
1981
1991
2001
Health Developments
� Improvement in wide range of health indicators reversed due to HIV/AIDS
� Health expenditure has increased steadily, driven by HIV/AIDS
� Important support from donors (approx. 20% of HIV/AIDS costs)costs)
� Other health concerns remain (only partially HIV-related): � TB; malaria; respiratory infections; diarrhoea; diabetes;
� Concern about diversion of resources and attention to HIV/AIDS resulting in possible neglect of other diseases and conditions
� Vertical programmes vs. building health sector
Access to education by region
ChobeNorth East
GhanziJwaneng
Kgalagadi SouthBarolong
Kgalagadi NorthSowa
Orapa
Pupil/teacher ratio, 2004
KgatlengSelibe-Phikwe
FrancistownOrapa
South EastLobatse
Kgalagadi NorthNorth East
Gaborone Kgalagadi South
% aged 6-12 in school
15 20 25 30
FrancistownSelibe Phikwe
BobonongTutumeBoteti
Ngami- SouthKweneng
Ngami-NorthLobatse
Serowe/ PalapyeMahalapye
TotalNgwaketseGaboroneSouth East
Chobe
70 80 90 100
GhanziCentral Boteti
SouthernJwaneng
Ngwaketse WestChobe
Central TutumeNgamiland North
BarolongSowa
Central SeroweKweneng East
Kweneng WestCentral Mahalapye
Ngamiland SouthTotal
Central BobonongKgatleng
Access to Education by Language Group - % attended school (>12yo)
Sebirwa
Herero
Sekgalagadi
Zezuru/Shona
Sembukushu
Seyei
Sesarwa � Considerable variation in (historical) access to education across language groups, with remote areas less well
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
English
Other
Ndebele
Afrikaans
Kalanga
Setswana
Total
Sesubiya
Setswapong remote areas less well served;
� May not reflect current situation
Education Issues
� Primary school coverage good (literacy survey indicates 1% have not attended school)
� Improving secondary enrolment and completion rates
� High youth unemployment – relationship between schooling and employment changing as more children in schooling and employment changing as more children in school
� Quality & relevance of education questioned
� Very high levels of education spend by GoB
� “Cost Sharing” in secondary schools – low compliance; impact on poor families
Highlights of Socio-economic Review
� Economic structure & growth
� Household incomes
� Labour force & unemployment
� Poverty� Poverty
� Demographic issues
� Health & education
� Social, Governance & Human Rights issues
Social, Governance & Human Rights Developments
� Crime & Corruption� Rising crime rates
� Botswana scores consistently highly on international corruption perceptions assessments, but concerns remain
Negative impact of illegal immigration/regional � Negative impact of illegal immigration/regional instability
� Diminishing importance of traditional social & support structures (extended family)
� Changing role of dikgosi (political & social)
� Dominant government, weak civil society?
Social, Governance & Human Rights Developments
� Access to land & housing a persistent problem
� Poor quality of housing for many
� Shortage of low income housing & financing mechanisms
� Restricted access to and inefficient use of land (and high prices), despite plentiful supply
� Traditional land allocation/tenure systems under stress
� Markets play a limited role
� National settlement policy – flexible enough?
Social, Governance & Human Rights Developments
� Botswana scores highly on international governance and human rights assessments
� But some challenging Human Rights issues have emerged over past decade:
CKGR� CKGR
� Minority tribes (constitution; languages)
� Gender equality
� HIV-related (routine testing, employment discrimination)
� Labour issues
� School fees & access to education
Data Issues
Data Issues
� Substantial dataset compiled, covering social, economic, demographic and environmental variables
� Broken down by geography, gender etc. where � Broken down by geography, gender etc. where available
� Dataset guided by UN data framework for MDG monitoring
� Amended where appropriate for Botswana variables
Data Issues
� Botswana data is generally good, but some shortcomings� Outdated in some areas� Infrequent or irregular time periods (e.g. unemployment)� Limited geographical breakdown
Some data unreliable, inconsistent series (e.g. life � Some data unreliable, inconsistent series (e.g. life expectancy, agric stats)
� Gaps in published data (e.g., crime)� Lack of poverty data (latest comprehensive data is
1993/94)� Dissemination is irregular; only summary data available
online
Economic & Social Challenges
Economic & Social Challenges
� Inadequate economic growth, slow diversification, low investment, insufficient job creation, competitiveness concerns
� High unemployment, slow decline in poverty, high � High unemployment, slow decline in poverty, high inequality for a country of Botswana’s income level
� Fiscal pressures: prospects of long-term decline in government revenues as diamonds run out, combined with ever-increasing demands for public resources
Unemployment & Poverty Challenges
� Unemployment remains a problem despite reasonably fast job creation
� Primarily a youth problem: majority of unemployed are under 30are under 30
� Main cause of poverty is lack of jobs not low wages
� Poverty can only be addressed in long term by more job creation
� Need for reform of welfare system to support those left behind
Rural Development Challenges
� Rural areas economically weak, with declining agriculture, both arable and cattle-rearing
� Dependent upon government transfers and employment
� Falling real incomes, high poverty rates, outward migration, demographic imbalance (missing middle)migration, demographic imbalance (missing middle)
� Rural areas are main location of Botswana’s poverty, and rising inequality due to rural areas being left behind
� Long-term economic prospects poor
� National settlement policy needs review
� Revival or managed decline?
Demographic, Health & Social Challenges
� Population structure changing due to HIV/AIDS and declining fertility, needs to be factored in to resource planning, especially education
� Rising crime and social problems – an unemployment issue?
Unemployment and social problems may get worse as � Unemployment and social problems may get worse as youth “bulge” passes through population
� HIV/AIDS remains a major health challenge, but signs of improvement
� Other health and child welfare indicators deteriorating – diversion of resources to HIV/AIDS?
� Need to rethink resource allocation?
Child Welfare Challenges
� Key issues:
� Children (albeit few) missing from primary schools
� Quality of primary and secondary education
� School fees
� Child health & survival – reversal of some previous gains� Child health & survival – reversal of some previous gains
� Vital registration
� Child-headed households
� Orphans
� Mostly in the process of being addressed, but need to ensure interventions are consistent and well-designed
Governance Challenges
� Strengthening civil society
� Determining appropriate roles for and balance between:� Central and local government
� Traditional and elected authorities� Traditional and elected authorities
� Reducing dependence upon government
� Promoting balance between rights and responsibilities for both citizens and government authorities
� Evolution of existing consultation processes, and establishing appropriate ones for “minorities”
Gender Issues
Emerging Gender Issues
� Many economic and social indicators show
gender bias:
� Unemployment: higher among females than males. Unemployment among the 20 -24 year old females is exceptionally high; exceptionally high;
� household income levels differ between fhh and mhh;
� Poverty: higher among fhh than mhh overall;
� HIV prevalence rates: tend to be higher amongst females than males;
Emerging Gender Issues
� Education
� Higher literacy rate for females;
� Progress in Gross, Net Enrolment for both genders in primary and secondary schools;
� Progression rates to Standard 7 and Forrm 5 higher for � Progression rates to Standard 7 and Forrm 5 higher for females;
� Vocational education enrolment biased towards males;
Emerging Gender Issues
� Health
� Males marginalised from MCH/FP approach to reproductive health;
� Paradigm shift: National Sexual and Reproductive Health Programme Framework focuses on the need for male Programme Framework focuses on the need for male involvement in reproductive health delivery;
� Crime
� Gender Based Violence –the number of crimes committed by males against females (rape, defilement and femicide) is increasing due in part to increased reporting;
Emerging Gender Issues
� Inclusion of men in the fight against GBV through the male involvment initiative (MOH);
� Political Representation� Increase in number of female MPs Iine 1999 followed by
decline in 2004;
� Representation of females in Ntlo ya Dikgosi increasing but low;
� Governance� Amendment of gender biased legislation marks significant
progress.
� Civil society continues to play a key role in spearheading legislative reform.
Emerging Gender Issues
� Gender Policy Framework Progress
� Elevation of status of Women’s Affairs Division to Departmental Status
� Review of laws affecting women
Key Gender Challenges
� Gender Policy Framework continues to be female focused resulting in male backlash. Implementation mechanisms are weak.
� The Cultural Environment – culturally-based patriarchal beliefs and practices challenge gender patriarchal beliefs and practices challenge gender equality efforts.
Key Gender Challenges
� Education: most access indicators not gender-biased, but gender disparities in completion of secondary education, and gender stereotyping in tertiary education.
� Health: slow pace of behavioural change. � Health: slow pace of behavioural change. Programmes that exclude vulnerable groups.
� Access to and Control over Productive Resources: lower household incomes, due to womens’ limited access to capital, and higher unemployment rate among females.
Key Gender Challenges
� Leadership and decision-making: low female representation in political decision-making. Glass-ceiling and male-focused work culture impedes female progression.
� Legislative Reform: contradictions between � Legislative Reform: contradictions between customary and common law.
� Gender-Based Violence: lack of comprehensive approach to addressing GBV that includes law enforcers, legislators, civil society and the public.