2007/9/281 Prediction of the coastal marine pollution in the Asian waters Hiroyuki MATSUDA Yokohama National University Professor of Environmental Risk Mangmt Program Leader Global COE: Eco-Risk Management from Asian Viewpoints The 1 st Japanese Pew Marine Conservation Fellow WWF Japan: advisory committee for nature consv. Standing Committee of Ecol Soc Japan 2006/5/222 Overview Development-conservation balance Stop severe pollution at the early stage Encourage environment-friendly companies Precautionary adaptive management Sustainable use and conservation by voluntary management 3 Classification of environmental risks Number of people affected (or environment) Individual risk Junko Nakanishi Characteristics of the past pollution incidences and the recent environmental problems. The per capute risk in the past was high, but the number of people affected was limited. The present per capita risk, with the newly-emerged environmental issues, is realtively small, while the number of people affected is big. -The present risk is more ubiquitous, and is unclear in nature. Human Health Risk Ecological risk! Pollution incidences Environmental problems Occupational After Junko Nakanishi 4 What are Asian environmental risks? Population increase and economy development Innovation of biomass and artificial chemicals Degradation of ecosystems and ecosystem services Deforestration and aquatic pollution Sustainable development with precautionary principle Risk trade-off, Risk-benefit, ecosystem, socioeconomy Global COE (Center of Excellence) by Yokohama National University and National Institute for Environmental Studies Global Eco-Risk Management from Asian Viewpoints ecologychemistry 5 Why do we conserve the nature? Biodiversity Ecosystem functions Global Changes Ecosystem services Human well-being Because of intergene- rational sustainability =Our descendant can enjoy ecosystem services (Christensen et al. 1996) (MA2004) Japanese edition: Translated by COE-YNU 2006/5/226 Ecosystem services and well-being (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2004) 05/8/47 3 types of ecosystem services Goods agriculturesGoods agricultures 140trilion yen/yr Regulating servicesRegulating services 1700 trillion yen/yr Cultural services Value of fishing ground >> fisheries yield 8 Approach of Eco-Risk Asia (Building a Society based on Safety and Trust) Adaptive popul. management Ecosystem management model Ecological risk of chemicals Basic studies Social institution Real time Case studies Extinction risk assessment Risk of genetic contamination Law of wildlifeDeer management Revision of Red Data Book EIA for Aichi EXPO 2005 Management of chemicals Field study of benthos Eradication of mongoose Shiretoko World Heritage Marine Protected Areas Law of Exotic Species GMO risk managementLaw of Biosafety Fisheries operating model Stock recovery of mackerel TAC* law system *TAC=Total Allowable Catch 12/6/069 Requiem to Maximum Sustainable Yield Theory (Matsuda & Abrams 2007 Am. Fish. Soc.) Ecosystems are uncertain, non- equilibrium and complex. MSY theory ignores all the three. We recommend adaptive mangmt. AM must be carefully used for ecosystem mangmt Stock abundance surplus production 12/6/ Some resultant biological communities at MSY (Matsuda & Abrams 2006) (b) (a) 12 5 (c) Solution maximizing total yield from community MSY solution usually reduces species and links; (d) (e) 4 May Feedback control in fishing effort is powerful... A straw man says; Even though the MSY level is unknown, the feedback control stabilizes a broad range of target stock level. Stock size N f(N) N*N*N*N*N*N* 12/6/0612 If prey is exploited and fishing effort is feedback control,... (Matsuda & Abrams in prep.) no adaptation (C is constant) dE/dt = U(N-N*) dN/dt=0 dP/dt=0 sardine N predator Pfishery E N P 12/6/0613 Fishing effort must be controlled by the predator density P dE/dt = U(P Target predator density) E = E(N, P), E/ N > 0, E/ P > 0 e.g. E = E target (1 + a log NP/N target P target ) In this case, feedback control guarantees persistence of the target stock and its predators. Adaptive multi-species management is sometimes needed. We must make theory and case studies on ecosystem adaptive management 14 Problems in the current global standard Inconsistent relationship between development and conservation (e.g. CITES vs FAO) Conservation based on top-down regulation Strict regulation in order to discourage developing countries Controversy between Europe and USA Europe Precautionary principle Initiative based on UN USA Adaptive management Independent of UN Kyoto Protocol Three Asian Viewpoints in Eco-Risk Asia Adaptive ex post facto verification is needed for precautionary principle. Perspective of developing countries in Asia that the use of ecosystem services inevitably entails eco-risk. Natural resource management will likely involve voluntary agreements (co-management). Resource Management and Risk Assessment in Tropical Peat-Swamp Forest, Thailand Mizuki TOMITA and Kunio SUZUKI 16/13 Primary tropical swamp forests (protected) Wetland of Melaleuca (protected) Secondary flora (land use) Study site YNU COE program Narathiwat Province Thailand Narathiwat Bangkok Risk assessment for sustainable use of Melaleuca cajuputi. If the utilization continued, the population goes to extinct over 50 percent probability after 18 years beach ridgepeat swamp transitional zone selective logging Risk depends on # selective logging Extinction risk YNU COE program 0 logging 6 logging 12 logging 18 logging Year after the present A Preliminary Study to Comparative Natural Resources Policy: The Concept of Biodiversity and Its Significance in Biodiversity Strategies Hiroki OIKAWA, Mineo KATO and Tadayoshi SHIGEOKA As Indonesian BDS suggests, BDSs prepared by developing countries are likely to put more emphasis on direct use value of biodiversity than its non-direct and non-use values. NationYearHP Indonesia2003 Malaysia1997 Philippin1997 Singapore1992 Thailand2002 Viet Nam1995 Global standardLocal standard indirect utility direct- and indirect utility conservation sustainable use Public involvementStakeholder involvement endemic and endangered species useful native species genetic information morphological information integrity ecosystem services YNU COE program Dioxins in Tokyo Bay: Its Environmental Behavior and Ecological Risk Assessment to Birds Shigeki MASUNAGA, Junko NAKANISHI & Yutaka KAMEDA 19/13 Fig. 1. Spatial distribution of the estimated annual average concentrations of dissolved (left) and suspended (right) dioxins in the surface water of Tokyo Bay (fg-TEQ/L) (N. Kobayashi, et al., (2006) Application of a 3-D Chemical Fate Prediction Model (FATE3D) to Predict Dioxin Concentrations in the Tokyo Bay, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 70, ) Input and output estimation of dioxins in Tokyo Bay ( YNU COE program Bio-accumulation depends on dioxin congeners (Masunaga et al.) Top predators carry accumulated co-PCBs. The present source of dioxins in Tokyo Bay is mainly PCP and CNP in s. 16 N YNU COE program Extinction risk of Great cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo) a) J. P. Ludwig et al. (1996) Risk ControlExposedRatio Individual level egg mortality risk a 0.19 b 2.2 b Hazard quotientNOEL=1,000 c 649 d 954 f Population level Pop. Growth Rate >20% decrease >50% decrease N 10 /N 0 % Cummulative probability Dioxins exposure Dioxins free YNU COE program Ecological Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals (Zinc) to Freshwater Benthic Macroinvertebrate Assemblages Based on Field Survey in the Hasama River Basin, Miyagi, Japan. Iwasaki (YNU), Kagaya (U.Tokyo), Miyamoto(AIST), Matsuda(YNU) 2006/5/2222 23 Zinc concentration near abandoned mine m St.4 St.2 St.3 St.1 St.5 St.9 St.8 St.6 St.7 Hosokura mine source of metals Nihasama Riv Namari Riv. Twice higher Standard Zn = 30 g/L Iwasaki et al. unpublished Hasama Riv. Polluted 447 g/L Unpolluted Stop heavy pollution at the early stage! Do not discourage good companies! Major risk source of the present dioxins is pesticides in agriculture during s congener analysis by Masunaga et al. Zinc is strictly regulated (0.03mg/L) Zn in many stn is larger than 0.03mg/L Benthic fauna is not lost in Stn with 0.06mg/L Zn (Iwasaki et al. unpublished) Zn criterion by population level risk is 0.1mg/L Stn near the abandoned mine is very high Zn. (by Kamo & Naito in press, AIST/CRM) 2006/5/2224 2006/5/2225 Overview Development-conservation balance Stop severe pollution at the early stage Encourage environment-friendly companies Precautionary adaptive management Sustainable use and conservation by voluntary management 26 International movement for sea lions conservation National Geographic August 2003 27 Kuril Population of Steller sea lions Population size Adults+juveniles (Perlov 1991) ca 80% decline # killed sea lions in Japan 2006/5/2228 Injuried Missing into the sea Culled Cull + injuried + missing Damage on fishing nets # struck, damage (million yen) Ohtaishi & Wada (eds, 1999), Hokkaido Pref. year 29 Cumulative Extinction Probability for Stellers sea lions (N. Takahashi & Matsuda unpubl.) Mean time to extinction T=66 yr. Method from Lande & Orzack (1987 PNAS) 30 Stellers sea lions should have been listed in endangered (EN). Sea lions accumulate many sorts of environmental chemicals but biological cause of the decline is unclear. Magnitude of the decline is equivalent in effect to a 30-60% reduction in juvenile survival or 70%-100% reduction in female fecundity. >50 sea lions have been still caught by pest control in Japan every year. Due to criticism from abroad, cull limit of sea lions is 106 individuals since 1995 Current sea lion problems When the Shiretoko became the World Nature Heritage in 2005, IUCN did not criticize cull of sea lions. Since 1995, cull limit was 106 per year. Sea lions is now gradually recovering Damage on fishers by sea lions is increasing No. of bycatch is still unreported. 2006/5/2231 Recently, the western Pacific Stellers sea lions are recovering Burkanov and Loughlin 2005 2006/5/2232 Potential Biological Removal (PBR) for sea lions PBR = 0.5 N min R max F r PBR = 0.5 x 5063 x 0.12 x 0.75 = 227 # By-catches is unknown! We estimated 107 by-catches (probably overestimation) #Annual cull limit is (106 to) 120 sea lions. We encourage a transparent by-catch report. 2006/5/2233 2006/5/2234 Traditional fisheries are also endangered Can whaling be managed to protect whales and whalers? Plenary talk by Judy Zeh at International Mammalogical Congress at Sapporo, 2005 Commercial fishery exists in the Shiretoko World Nature Heritage Conserve diversity of flora, fauna, language and culture!! 2006/5/2235 Overview Development-conservation balance Stop severe pollution at the early stage Encourage environment-friendly companies Precautionary adaptive management Sustainable use and conservation by voluntary management 2006/5/2236 Expected Loss of Longevity If cancer probability = and 10 years life expectancy are lost, then Expected loss of longevity = 0.7 hours!! We can compare ELL between various sorts of risk factors. 2006/5/2237 Quantifying Health Benefits from Eating Fish M. Daviglus Society for Risk Analysis 1999 Annual MeetingBenefit = fish includes unsaturated fatty acids and decreases heart diseases. Men aged 40 to 55 years, who consumed 35 g or more of fish daily had 38% and 44% lower risk of death from coronary heart disease and myocardial infarction, respectively. This benefit is much higher than the health risk from dioxin. 2006/5/2238 Weekly intake of each fish (Souce: Japan Ministry of Health 2005, Nakanishi et al. 2003) 2006/5/2239 Risk of mercury (Source: Japan Ministry of Health 2005, Nakanishi et al. 2003) 2006/5/ My typical lunch menu (for 2 persons) 650 yen (US$6) with coffee 2006/5/2241 Overview Development-conservation balance Stop severe pollution at the early stage Encourage environment-friendly companies Precautionary adaptive management Sustainable use and conservation by voluntary management 2006/5/ Fallacy of Zero-Risk Qis anxiety (Qi-you ) Rodricks Calculating Risks 2006/5/2243 Risk of human lives by climate change Parry et al., (2001) 2006/5/2244 Effect on ecosystems by climate chage Hare, W. L. (2003). Assessment of Knowledge on Impacts of Climate Change Contribution to the Specification of Art. 2 of the UNFCCC.Global mean temperature increase above pre-industrial 2006/5/2245 Overview Development-conservation balance Stop severe pollution at the early stage Encourage environment-friendly companies Precautionary adaptive management Sustainable use and conservation by voluntary management 46 Guideline for nature restoration projects. Committee on Ecosystem Management of The Ecological Society of Japan* (2005) Japanese Journal of Conservation Ecology 10: with English abstract *Hiroyuki MATSUDA, *Hiroyuki MATSUDA, Tetsukazu YAHARA, Yasuhiro TAKEMON, Yoshio HADA, Mariko HASEGAWA, Kazumasa HIDAKA, Stefan HOTES, Yasuro KADONO, Mahito KAMADA, Fusayuki KANDA, Makoto KATO, Hidenobu KUNII, Hiroshi MUKAI, Okimasa MURAKAMI, Nobukazu NAKAGOSHI, Futoshi NAKAMURA, Kaneyuki NAKANE, Miho Ajima NISHIHIRO, Jun NISHIHIRO, Toshiyuki SATO, Masakazu SHIMADA, Hinako SHIOSAKA, Noriko TAKAMURA, Noriko TAMURA, Kenichi TATSUKAWA, Yoshitaka TSUBAKI, Satoshi TSUDA, Izumi WASHITANICoral reefs between Ishigaki & Iriomote 2006/5/ Set preliminary numerical goal 10. Choose monitoring measures 11. Select method of control Flow diagram for ecological risk management 0. Concerns, issues 2.Delimit management scope, invite stakeholder 3.Organize local council and scientific committee 14. Initiate management 15. Continue management and monitoring Scientific procedure Consensus building 4.Characterize undesired events 5. Enumerate measures of effects 6. Analyze stress factors by modelling 7. Risk assessment for no-action case Revision required Reset goals when not agreed Reset goals when infeasible 8. Check necessity and purpose of management 13. Decide measures & goals 12. Check feasibility of goals 16. Review numerical goals and purposes 1. Screening Finish program scientistspublic 2006/5/2248 Why to conserve biodiversity? To enjoy human well-being based on ecosystem services based on biodiversity (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005) Good indicator for sustainable historical relationship between human and nature Same as to conserve historical monuments (Hirakawa & Higuchi 1997) 2006/5/2249 Conserve biodiversity and monuments Hirakawa & Higuchi 1997; Yahara & Washitani 1996 Rich biodiversity = an evidence of sustainable relationship between our ancestors and nature Sustainability is a global standard. Loss of biodiversity = an indicator of unsustainable impact on the nature Our generations mission = to leave native biodiversity to the next generation as much as possible. Similar to conserve historical monuments (1997) 67: (1996) 270 50 Spawning ground Since 1995 Since 2005 MPAs to protect Walleye Pollack Bottom trawlings are totally banned at the coastal area Made by Mitsutaku Makino 51 Most of keystone species are caught and recorded by local fishers org.s! Sustainable fisheries play roles of umbrella species like top predators! Coastal Foodweb at Shiretoko World Natural Heritage Made by Mitsutaku Makino 52 Fisheries production statistics (tons) at Shiretoko WNH Very informative time-series data for monitoring the changes in ecosystem structure/functions Made by Mitsutaku Makino 2006/5/2253 Thank you! We like to try real time case studies under collaboration with government side. 2004/1/2953 Windfirm birdstrikes Shiretoko World Heritage Pelagic fish management Mongoose eradication program at Amami Island Mainichi Shimbun N. Ishii FSNRI H.M. at Shiretoko Release of Chamicals Plant Red Data Book Deer management EXPO2005 at Aichi, Revision of RDB