2007 - 7th Annual U.S. Analyst Airline Market Overview Commecial Aviation
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Transcript of 2007 - 7th Annual U.S. Analyst Airline Market Overview Commecial Aviation
Frederico Fleury Curado - EmbraerExecutive Vice-President, Airline Market
Airline Market Overview
A perspective fromthe 30 to 120-seat segment
7th Annual U.S. Analystand Investor Meeting
April 11th, 2007
Air Transport Industry Review
50-seat Regional Jet Market
E-Jets: The 70 to 120-seat Market Evolution
Embraer Market Forecast
Contents
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
200
6F
200
7F
200
8F
Tota
l RPK
(Bill
ion)
Passenger traffic back and growing
Source: ICAO - Contracting States - Scheduled Airlines
Strong passenger demand
3.5% 6.2% 5.8%
RPK Average Annual Growth Rates
-0.4% 11.4%
LCC’s still in demand’s driver seat
Source: BACK and Embraer
2Q 2000 2Q 2006
LCC’s Market Share(Domestic RPM)
39%2010F34%200619%2000
• LCCs with increased market share and pricing power.• Network Carriers focused more on international markets and
using Regional partners to improve domestic network efficiency.
LCC’s US Domestic Network
Source: ATA (Airline Cost Index)
Strong effort to reduce costs
Operating Costs excluding fuel decreased
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
CA
SM (U
S¢/A
SM)
Fuel 1.50 3.36Other 5.42 5.99Labor 3.57 2.90
3Q2000 3Q2006
(14%)
(52%)
(34%)
(27%)
(49%)
(24%)
+124%
+10%
-19%
3Q06 vs 3Q00
10.49
12.25
8.99 8.89Total Cost (excl. Fuel): -1%
Total Cost: +17%
Fuel Price
Source: EIA - Energy Industry Administration (Feb/07)
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Jet F
uel P
rice
(US$
per
Gal
lon)
New YorkRotterdam
SingaporeChina
Lack of spare oil production capacity remains high price trend
1.99
1.94
1.93
1.67
1.64
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Jet F
uel (
US
$ pe
r Gal
lon)
For coming years oil barrel is expected to stay atUS$52-62 level and jet fuel at US$1.64-1.94/gallon.
Jet Fuel Price Forecast (EIA)Jet Fuel Price by Region
7.25
7.50
7.75
8.00
8.25
8.50
8.75
9.00
9.25
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F
Wor
ld Y
ield
(US
Cen
ts)
Nominal
Real (Y2001; adj. for US inflation)
Revenue environment is improving
Source: ICAO (Contracting States – Passenger, Scheduled Airlines), Global Insight and Embraer
Nominal yields: 10% increase in the last five yearsReal yields: 3% lower than 2001 values
World nominal yields improved in the last 5 years
Profitability ahead
Source: IATA Economics Dec/06 (ICAO 2004-2005 and IATA Forecast 2006-2007)
Values in US$ Billion
US net losses includes $6.1bn restructuring costs in 2006
Europe
AfricaLatin America
North America
Middle East
Asia Pacific
World
2005 2006F 2007F2004
2005 2006F 2007F2004
1.6 1.8 1.51.1
-6.7 -3.7 0.2-10
2.1 1.7 1.23.4
2005 2006F 2007F2004
0.2 0.1 0.10.2
2005 2006F 2007F2004
2005 2006F 2007F2004
-0.1 0.1 0.10.1
2005 2006F 2007F2004
-0.4 -0.5 -0.5-0.3
-3.2 -0.5 2.5-5.6
2005 2006F 2007F2004
Positive results projected for 2007
New Passenger ProfileDifferent Set of Values
(pricing, comfort, more direct flights)
Air transport industry major drivers
Increased CompetitionNeed for differentiation in services
Weak Revenue EnvironmentImproved productivity and efficiency
Demand/Capacity MatchBetter match to avoid empty seats
Old & Inefficient AircraftPressure on Fuel & Maintenance Costs
LiberalizationOpportunities for new entrants
Emissions RegulationsMay anticipate A/C Replacement
Air TransportIndustry
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
TP <
30
TP 3
0-60
TP 6
1-90
Jet 3
0-60
Jet 6
1-90
Jet 9
1-12
0
Jet 1
21-1
45
Jet 1
46-1
75
Jet 1
76-2
10
Jet 2
11-3
00
Jet 3
01-4
00
Jet >
400
Num
ber o
f Airc
raft
(Uni
ts)
> 30
26-30
21-25
16-20
11-15
6-10
0-5
Source: BACK (Dec/06)
A quick look at the W/W fleet profile
Scheduled Airlines, All Pax Configuration and Active in Service
18,204 aircraftAge (years)
968
1741
414
2027
3395
862
3306
973
525
10671378
1548
ERJ 145 Family
ERJ 145 Family
50 Seats(2,000 nm range)
50 Seats
37 Seats
44 Seats
ERJ 145 Family Orderbook
(as of December 31st, 2006)
53
53
-
-
FirmBacklog
861133914Total
679132732ERJ 145
74-74ERJ 140
1081108ERJ 135
DeliveriesOptionsFirm Orders
RJ´s importance to US hub-and-spoke system
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%OR
DCV
GIA
DIA
HAT
LDF
WCL
TEW
RDT
WLG
APH
LM
SP DEN
SLC
CLE
STL
MEM DC
API
T
Source: Back (T100 and OD1A, RJ50: ERJ Family, CRJ-100/200 and 328Jet)
Hub system extremely dependent of RJs
RJ50: 3 connecting passengers for each local passenger
% of RJ50 passengers through Connections
50-seat Regional Jet Operation - 2006
Source: Back (Jan/07: ERJ135/140/145, CRJ100/200/440, 328Jet ; more than one flight per week)
Single provider routes can benefit from higher yields
Total RJ: 2,856 RoutesUSA
RJ as a Single Service Provider: 1,114 Routes
(39% of total RJ routes)
Total RJ: 1,386 Routes
RJ as a Single Service Provider: 436 Routes
(31% of total RJ routes)
Europe
Source: Back (Oct/06)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 >35
Age (Years)
Num
ber
of A
ircr
aft
Fleet Age Profile (30-60 seats)
2,018 Jets (average age: 7 years)
2,018
64
21
15
187
297
13
1,421
Number of
Aircraft
7World
43%China
51%Asia Pacific
121%Africa & Middle East
319%Russia & CIS
615%Europe
31%Latin America
470%USA & Canada
AverageAge
(years)%Region
RJ 50 Market Opportunities - China
Most of the routes have low demand density and low frequencies.
0
100
200
300
400
500
0 1 2 3 4 5
Number of domestic markets: 755
383 markets 152 (20%) 68 (9%)
Daily Frequency
Dai
ly P
asse
nger
Tra
ffic
51% of total markets have less than
one daily frequency and
less than 135pax/day
Source: China Airline Traffic Statistics 2005 (Markets with at least one weekly frequency)
China - an unbalanced jet fleet
28%
11%
15%
24%
58%
89%
65%
8%
4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
USA China Europe
% o
f Jet
Fle
et (J
30-2
10)
J121-210
J61-120
J30-60
Seat Segment
Source: BACK FleetPC (Jun/06 ; active in service ; scheduled airlines)
30-120 seat jets represent only 12% of China jet fleet (30-210 seats), whileit is 43% in US and 35% in Europe
4,829 aircraft 826 2,612
12%35%43%
China - ERJ 145 and 328Jet Routes
Source: CAAC (2005), Embraer
328Jet
ERJ145
6 ERJ145
4 ERJ145Backlog: 6
5 ERJ145
29 328JetBacklog: 50 ERJ145
Source: BACK (Oct/06)
RJ 50 Market Opportunities - Russia/CIS
Improved fuel consumptionLower Operating CostsIncreased Productivity
186 189146
0
50
100
150
200
Turboprop Jet 30-60 Jet 61-90
Num
ber o
f Airc
raft
An-24
50 seatsAvg. Age35 years
Yak-40
30 seatsAvg. Age32 years
Tu-134
76 seatsAvg. Age29 years
Old fleet replacement need: 521 aircraft
RJ 50s Future Market
• Market entered a mature phase in the US and Europe
• RJ50s will remain the backbone of US hub feeding system
• New market opportunities (long and thin) in the US and EU
• Potential in China, Russia and other markets
• Secondary market developing
E-Jets
Helping airlinesto improve efficiency
E-Jets Family
EMBRAER 170• 70 to 80 seats• 2,000 nm Range• Certification: February 2004
EMBRAER 170/175
EMBRAER 190/195
EMBRAER 175• 78 to 88 seats• 1,900 nm Range• Certification: December 2004
EMBRAER 190• 98 to 114 seats• 2,300 nm Range • Certification: August 2005
EMBRAER 195• 108 to 122 seats• 2,100 nm Range• Certification: June 2006
The E-Jets Family - Main Applications
Natural evolution for existing 50-seat markets
Right-sizing of low load-factor narrow-body flightsCapacity, range & seamless service
Enhancing services by increasing frequencies
New market opportunities – low risk developmentMedium density and long/thin markets
Replacement of old & inefficient jets
Market Opportunities – Right-sizing
US Domestic (100-160 seat Jet - 12 months ending Sep/2006)
0
120,000
240,000
360,000
480,000
600,000
<50 50 60 70 80 90 100
110
>120
Pax per Departure
Ann
ual F
light
s
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Ave
rage
Loa
d Fa
ctor
Source: BACK
Industry100-seater
76-seater
Avg. Load Factor
• 851 thousand flights (40% of total) carried less than 100 passengers onboard
Air Canada Strategic Review Presentation (September 27, 2004)
COPY
Air Canada - Changing the Game Presentation (Dec/2006)
COPY
Delta Flight Plan Presentation (Mar/2007)
COPY
Not AllowedUp to 67 unitsUnlimited
Not AllowedUp to 35 units 50 seats and 35 units 69 seats
Not Allowed(Grandfathered rights 18 AirWis BAe 146)
Up to 65 units
Not Allowed(Grandfathered rights 36 Avro RJ85 up to 69 seats)
30 units 45-55 seatsUnlimited
US Scope Clauses - Jun/2000
Unlimited Not Allowed
Not AllowedUnlimited
40 50 70Seats 60 80 90 100
Up to 75 units
2003
2002
2000
2003
2000
2003
Labor Contract
AmendableYear
Up to 200 units(30 units 71-76 seats + 3 units for each
mainline aircraft increase)Not AllowedUnlimited
Unlimited Not Allowed
Not AllowedUp to 50 units“Unlimited”
(Up to 110% AA narrow body)
Not Allowed“Unlimited” up to 70 seats
40 50 70Seats 60 80 90 100
Not AllowedUp to 90 unitsUnlimited
US Scope Clauses - Jun/2006
Not AllowedUnlimited up to 78 seats Up to 93 units(86 seats)
2009
2008
2010
2012
2010
2010
Labor Contract
AmendableYear
30% of 61-120 fleet
(735 acft) with more
than 20 years
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 >35
Age (Years)
Num
ber
of A
ircr
aft
Source: BACK (Oct/06)
Market Opportunities - Replacement
World Fleet Age Profile (61-120 seats): 2,454 jets with 15 years average age
152,454World838China
19241Asia Pacific
1648Middle East
22148Africa
23231Russia & CIS
11617Europe
23285Latin America
10846USA, Canada & Caribbean
Avg. Age# Acft.Region
better yields CapacityManagement
better yields / more revenueNew markets
better fares and yieldsMore directflights
market stimulation
. . . with business passengers
better market share
More flights
RevenuesYields / Fares
Maximizing the Revenue in the Profit Equation
Revenue strengths of smaller airplanes
E-Jets Joint Certification means Flexibility
• Same Type Design for ANAC, FAA and EASA
EASAFAA
• Market swap flexibility• Increased residual value
July 20062nd Quarter 2007June 2006EMBRAER 195
January 2005August 2006December 2004EMBRAER 175
June 2006September, 2005August 2005EMBRAER 190
February 2004February 2004EMBRAER 170
EASAFAAANAC
Training Qualification Differences : According to FAA AC 120- 53, grades range from A (best) to E (worst) in 3 categories: Training Differences, Check Differences and Recurrent Training
E-Jets Commonality
Training 70% of the potential benefits
same cockpit, common systems and fly-by-wire technology mean maximum training commonality within the family
-------A/A/AA/A/AA/A/A195
A/A/A-------A/A/AA/A/A190
A/A/AA/A/A-------A/A/A175
A/A/AA/A/AA/A/A-------170
195190175170EMBRA
ER
• E-Jets have the maximum training commonality (A/A/A)• E-Jets offer an outstanding parts commonality (86% to 100%)
Spare Parts 30% of the potential benefits
E190
E195
86%
E170
E175
Based on the aircraft RSPL (Recommended Spare Parts List)Note: Airframe and Ground Servicing Equipment only (Engines are not included).
100%
100%
“Passengers love this aircraft for its spacious interior design and in particular the absence of a middle seat” Bryan Bedford, CEO Republic Airways (Jul/06)
“The comfort of the E175 aircraft is important to our customers and the economics of the aircraft make good business sense.”Scott Kirby, US Airways EVP Sales and Marketing (Jul/06)
The Comfort Factor
CRJ700/90017.3”
16”
EMBRAER 170/19018.25”
19.75”
A318/32018.0”
19”
Widest seats
Widest aisles
No middle seats
0.25” (0.6 cm) wider seats
0.75” (1.9 cm) wider aisle
Equal volume per seat
0.95” (2.4cm) wider seats
3.75” (9.5cm) wider aisle (+23%)
16% more volume per seat
E170/190 advantages:
E-Jets: Narrowbody airplane comfort in convenient sizes
51355368
60586310
7563
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
E170 E175 E190 E195 A319 / B737-700
US$
per
Trip
The Trip Cost Factor
US DomesticNetwork Airline -
800 sm trip
Costs exclude: revenue related costs and system (overhead) costsCosts include: variable: fuel, crew, maintenance, landing fees, handling fees ; ownership: lease cost, hull insurance, spares inventory costs
2-class seating: 70 78 94 104 124
Airplane Variableplus OwnershipCosts per Trip
- 32%- 20%
E-Jets: Lower trip costs than comparable airplanes
Air Canada - Changing the Game Presentation (Dec/2006)
COPY
E-Jets Family Orderbook
4335146EMBRAER 195
410
264
74
29
FirmBacklog
209568619Total
53248317EMBRAER 190
2513699EMBRAER 175
128133157EMBRAER 170
DeliveriesOptionsFirm Orders
(as of December 31st, 2006)
60110 112 118
245
343
440
619
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Acc
umul
ated
Firm
Ord
ers
E-Jets Customer Base Evolution
Source: Embraer
1 2 3 4 9 13 18 33Customers
Deliveries
E-Jets Worldwide Distribution
• growing and diversified customer-base across five continents• increased presence in emerging markets with established carriers
16%
6%
60%
13%5%
Asia Pacific /China
Middle East /Africa
Europe
Latin America
North America
17%24%
24%14%
21%
Customers Firm Orders
E-Jets Family - Efficiency to all Business Models
Regional Network Low Cost
Source: Embraer (Jan/07 ; Sirte Oil and GECAS not presented)
Charter
4 E170 *
28 E170
E-Jets
Dec/06
16 E170
55 E1902 E190
36 E175
27 E19015 E17518 E190
226134
30 E17528 E170
78 E19023 E190
BacklogDeliveries
Source: BACK (4Q06), Embraer
E-Jets Deployment - USA and Canada
40% 42% 18%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Natural Growth Right-sizing New Routes
% of Routes (4Q06)
* to be operated in Mar/07
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
<100
101-2
0020
1-300
301-4
0040
1-500
501-6
0060
1-700
701-8
0080
1-900
901-1
000
1001
-1100
1101
-1200
1201
-1300
1301
-1400
1401
-1500
1501
-1600
1601
-1700
1701
-1800
Distance (nm)
Num
ber o
f Flig
hts
663 nm
669 nm
Average Stage Length (4Q06)
548 nmE-Jets
474 nm
549 nm
440 nm
Source: BACK (4Q06)
E-Jets Operational Profile - USA and Canada
Washington-Norfork175 sm - 1:00 (2 Daily)
Denver-Toronto1,310 sm - 3:16 (1 Daily)
Boston-New York187 sm - 1:16 (7 Daily)
Austin-New York1,515 sm - 3:30 (1 Daily)
Ottawa-Toronto225 sm - 1:00 (2 Daily)
Montreal-Calgary1,866 sm - 4:18 (2 Daily)
Airline
KeyWest-Ft.Lauderdale145 sm - 0:49 (1 Daily)
Houston-Philadelphia1,323 sm - 3:06 (1 Daily)
Atlanta-Charlotte227 sm - 1:14 (1 Daily)
Dallas-New York1,377 sm - 3:46 (1 Daily)
Shortest RouteLongest Route
Source: BACK (4Q06)
E-Jets Deployment - USA and Canada
Efficiency and flexibility for long and short haul markets
E175/190 at Air Canada
6:008:00
10:0012:0014:0016:0018:0020:0022:00
2005870
A319
A319
A319
A319
A319
A319
2007508
E175
E175
E190
E175
E175
E175
CRJ
2007485
E175E175
E175
E175
E175
A319
E-Jets Right-sizing at Air Canada:• 76% of total E175/190 routes• 5 routes complementing A319 and 7 routes complementing A320
• 11 routes replacing A319 and 2 routes replacing A320
LaGuardia – Montreal 2005480
A319
A319
A319
A319
Chicago – Toronto
Seats*
Source: BACK (4Q06) *4th Wednesday of January
6:008:00
10:0012:0014:0016:0018:0020:0022:00
2005100
CRJ
ERJ
E170 at US Airways
E-Jets Natural Growth at US Airways:• 56% of E170 routes• 17 routes complementing CRJ-100/200 and 4 routes complementing ERJ 145
• 5 routes replacing CRJ-100/200 and 1 route replacing ERJ 145
Philadelphia – Charleston2007190
CRJ
E170
E170
Washington – Portland ME2005150
CRJ
CRJ
CRJ
2007260
CRJ
E170
E170
E170
Seats*
Source: BACK (4Q06) *4th Wednesday of January
5 E1901 E190
12 E1952 E195
9 E19010 E170 1 E190
6 E170
E-Jets
Dec/06
56 38
15 E17015 E195
10 E170 6 E175
2 E170
BacklogDeliveries
Source: BACK (4Q06), Embraer% of Routes (4Q06)
41% 53% 3%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Natural Growth Right-sizing New Routes
E-Jets Deployment - Europe
E170/190 at Finnair
6:008:00
10:0012:0014:0016:0018:0020:0022:00
2005528
A319
A319
A319
A319
2007559
A319
E190
E170
A321
E170
2007228
E170
E170
E170
E-Jets Right-sizing at Finnair:• 74% of total E-Jets routes• 44 routes complementing A319/320s
• 8 routes replacing A319/320s and 6 routes replacing MD-80s
2005252
A319
A319
Hamburg – HelsinkiHelsinki – Copenhagen
Seats*
Source: BACK (4Q06) *4th Wednesday of January
E-Jets Deployment - Middle East & Africa
% of Routes (Jan/07)
3 E170
6 E170
1 E17014 E170
E-Jets
Dec/06
1815
2 E170
6 E195 1 E195
BacklogDeliveries
Source: BACK (Jan/07), Embraer
5% 86% 9%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Natural Growth Right-sizing New Routes
1 E170
2 E1703 E175
3 E1905 E195
1 E170
50 E190
E-Jets
Dec/06
745
3 E17011 E190
BacklogDeliveries
Source: BACK (1Q07), Embraer
E-Jets Deployment - Asia Pacific & China
E-Jets Deployment - Latin America
9 E1906 E190
4 E1901 E190
2 E1701 E190
2 E170
1 E1901 E175
E-Jets
Dec/06
1413
BacklogDeliveries
Source: Embraer
E-Jets Family - EIS Statistics
(*) Air Canada operates E175 and E190 and Tame operates E170 and E190Source: Airlines (as of Mar 26th, 2007)
Operators 13 Operators 10Aircraft in Service 156 Aircraft in Service 67Flight Hours 582,594 Flight Hours 94,725Flight Cycles 403,422 Flight Cycles 58,740
Fleet Leaders Fleet LeadersFlight Hours (Republic S/N 16) 7,624 Flight Hours (JetBlue S/N 8) 3,072Flight Cycles (Republic S/N 13) 5,243 Flight Cycles (JetBlue S/N 8) 2,164
Operators*Aircraft in ServiceFlight HoursFlight Cycles
677,319462,162
E170/190 Family
E170/175 E190/195
21223
E170/190 at Virgin Blue
“People refer to it as a regional jet, but it is not a regional jet, it is thefirst airliner that has bridged that gap between NBs and RJs ... It’s a wonderful aeroplane for being able to pick up some markets we flytoday that we’re not doing particularly well on.”
“It has the mission capabilities to be able to fly the length and breadthof our country, it has the capabilities to fly into the Pacific to where wefly today with our 737s. But we’re able to do it at a lower trip cost.”
Brett Godfrey, Virgin Blue CEO Australian Aviation, Jan/Feb 2007
6 Embraer 170
14 Embraer 190
E190 at Hainan
“The acquisition of ERJ-145s and EMBRAER 190s represents animportant validation of our strategy of providing more flexible flightsto match the rapidly increasing demand of the domestic market in China” Chen Feng – Chairman Hainan Airlines ATI News Aug/06
50 ERJ 145 plus 50 EMBRAER 190 order
E190 at Flybaboo
Embraer 190: 5 firm + 5 options
“Comfort is one of our constant concerns and I’m truly convinced that, with the EMBRAER 190, we will be offering the highest quality of comfort and service to our clients.”
“We selected the E190 for its comfort and its performance. It has four-hour flight endurance, enabling it to reach destinations with a range of more than 3,000 km, along with capability to take-off and land at small airports.”Julian Cook, Flybaboo Founder and Managing Director Source: ATI News, Embraer, Feb 2007
2007-2026 Embraer Market Outlook4th. Edition
A LONG-TERM VIEW OF THE 30 TO 120-SEAT
COMMERCIAL JET MARKET
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%
World
China
Asia Pacific
Middle East
Africa
CIS
Europe
Latin America
USA, Canada & Caribbean
Average Annual Growth (%)
RPKGDP
Projected Traffic and Economic Growth
Growth by Region (2007-2026)
Projected world GDP growth around 3% in the next twenty yearswill sustain nearly 5% annual increase in air transport demand.
Source: Global Insight and Embraer (Oct/06)
Regional Trends
• Airline Consolidation• Increased Competition (LCC Expansion)• Scope Clause Relaxation• Right-Sizing Opportunities
USA, Canada & Caribbean
Latin America • Increased Competition (LCC Expansion)• Ageing Fleet• Right-Sizing and Direct Replacement
Opportunities• Trend Towards Liberalization
Asia Pacific
China• New Policies for Regional Aviation• Increased Competition (Start-ups)• Pilot Shortage• Concentration on Large Aircraft• Right-sizing opportunities
• Trends Towards Liberalization• Increased Competition (Start-ups)• Concentration on Large Aircraft• Infrastructure Constraints to
growth• Pilot Shortage
Africa
Europe Russia & CIS
Middle East
• Government Owned Flag Carriers• Ageing Fleets (Used Aircraft)• Very Fragmented Market• Liberalization on some countries /
regions
• Regional Network Under Development• Slow Liberalization Trend• High Comfort Standards• Travel Demand Growing Above World
Level
• Environment rules may impact air transport growth
• Increased Competition (LCC Expansion)• High Speed Train Competition • Right-Sizing and Direct Replacement
Opportunities
• Recovering Economy and Yield Environment
• Tax Barriers to Western Aircraft • Ageing Fleet
4,4504,450
1,8501,850
1,5001,500
1,1001,100
2017 2017 -- 20262026
7,5007,500
3,5003,500
2,6002,600
1,4001,400
2007 2007 -- 20262026
3,0503,05030 30 -- 120120
1,6501,65091 91 -- 120120
1,1001,10061 61 -- 9090
30030030 30 -- 6060
2007 2007 -- 20162016SegmentSegment
Embraer Market Forecast (2007-2026)
Worldwide Jet Deliveries
Projected Deliveries (30-120 seats): 7,500 Jets
USA, Canada& Caribbean
3,85051%
Europe1,29017% China
6309%
LatinAmerica
4806%
Africa1302% Asia
Pacific3855%
MiddleEast2303%
Russia & CIS5057%
Embraer Market Forecast (2007-2026)
78 airlines. 45 countries. 1 manufacturer. EMBRAER78 airlines. 45 countries. 1 manufacturer. EMBRAER
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