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IPY20072008

Role of WMO in the International Polar Year

2007-2008

Dr. Eduard SarukhanianSpecial Adviser to the WMO Secretary-General on IPY

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IPY20072008 Brief History

Twelve countries participated in the First IPY was held in 1882-1883. The observations were made at 13 stations in the Northern Hemisphere and at two stations in the Sub-Antarctic including observations of the Earth’s magnetic field, temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity and visual observations of clouds and polar lights.The Second IPY was held in 1932–1933. During this year the hydro-meteorological network in polar areas has been expanded. The measurements have been made provided new representations about character of a polar atmosphere behavior. Many expeditionsto the Arctic seas were made, circulation and sea ice were studied.In 1957, the first global experiment for observation of the Earth’s environment – the International Geophysical Year began. At that time it was a truly outstanding event. During the period confined to the maximum solar activity July 1957 to December 1958, scientists from 67 countries began comprehensive observations of the global geophysical processes. That events have initiated a significant number of large international research projects prescribing in fact a standard for conducting such experiments for many years ahead.In 2003 February, ICSU Executive Board establish a Planning Group to explore the possibility for IPY and formulate its objectives.In 2003 May, WMO Congress approved the idea of holding an International Polar Year in 2007-2008.In 2003 February, ICSU Executive Board approved holding of IPY in 2007-2008 and invited WMO to jointly sponsor the IPYIn 2004 June, ICSU and WMO agreed to act as cosponsors for the IPY and establish IPY Joint Organizing Committee.

Polar bear attacked the German scientistin the Arctic, 1870th

Oceanographic measurements in the Arctic,beginning of the 1900th

Ice-breaking steamer “Sybyrjakov”, Chukotka, 1933

Polar station in the Polar night, 1957

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IPY20072008 IPY Outline Science Plan:

IPY 2007-2008 main themes

• To determine the present environmental status of the polar regions by quantifying their spatial and temporal variability.

• To quantify, and understand, past and present environmental and human change in the polar regions in order to improve predictions

• To advance our understanding of polar - global interactions by studying teleconnections on all scales.

• To investigate the unknowns at the frontiers of science in the polar regions.

• To use the unique vantage point of the polar regions to develop and enhance observatories studying the Earth's inner core, the Earth's magnetic field, geospace, the Sun and beyond.

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IPY20072008 IPY Outline Science Plan:

Emerging Observational Initiatives

Five emerging observational initiatives serve the scientific themes:

1. A synoptic-scale set of multidisciplinary observations to establish the status of the polar environment in 2007-2008

2. The acquisition of key data sets necessary to understand factorscontrolling change in the polar environment

3. The establishment of a legacy of multidisciplinary observationalnetworks

4. The launch of internationally coordinated, multidisciplinary expeditions into new scientific frontiers

5. The implementation of polar observatories to study important facets ofPlanet Earth and beyond

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IPY20072008 Areas of WMO Activities

• Observing component, including space-based subsystem• Polar stratospheric ozone• Atmospheric pollution effects on climate, ozone depletion, and the

environment• Weather forecasting research, Polar THORPEX• Climate assessment• Climate and cryosphere• Polar oceanography• Hydrology and water resources

“WMO Executive Council stressed that observing networks established or improved during the IPY period should be kept in operational mode for as many years as possible to provide data for detection and projection of climate change…”WMO EC-LVI, June, 2004, General summary, par. 15.3.4

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IPY20072008 Observing Component,

Including Space-based SubsystemProposed activities:

• Rehabilitate or re-activate existing meteorological stations, increase the number of drifting buoys, voluntary observing ships and aircraft in Polar Regions.

• Use existing components of the space-based subsystem, as well as new operational polar-orbiting satellite series, especially satellites with new observational capabilities for polar regions.

• Support the development of the comprehensive polar re-analyses, using all available data including historical datasets.

WMO World Weather Watch, Applications of Meteorology and Space Programmes, International Arctic Buoy Program, WCRP International Programme for Antarctic Buoys

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IPY20072008

Observing System:land stations and drifting bouys

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IPY20072008 Observation system:

tools and platforms

Airborne measurements

Meteorological ice drifting buoy using for IABP and IPAB Automatic

weather station

Satellite images

MODIS (TERRA) AVHRR (NOAA) SAR (RADARSAT)

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IPY20072008 Polar Stratospheric Ozone

Proposed activities:

• Enhance integrated monitoring of the ozone layer, with an increased spatial and temporal coverage, using ground-based optical remote sensing instrumentation and ozone sondes aircraft and satellites consistent with the Integrated Global Atmospheric Chemistry Observation system of IGOS led by WMO.

Atmospheric Research and Environment (GAW) and WMO Space Programmes

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IPY20072008 Increased ultraviolet radiation as

a result of ozone depletionin polar regions

Ozone hole over the Antarctica in 2003

Increases in UV doses can induceskin cancer and cataracts

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IPY20072008 Atmospheric Pollution Effects on

Climate, Ozone Depletion, and the Environment

Proposed activities:

• Intensify long-term integrated measurement/modelling of the transport of greenhouse gases and aerosols, particularly to the Arctic and studies of processes of atmosphere - surface ocean interactions in order to minimize the impact of chemicals on thepolar ecosystems.

Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme (GAW)

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IPY20072008

Courtesy WMO AREP

Global Atmospheric Watch

Multidisciplinary Obs

Observation system:

O3

Courtesy A. Geer

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IPY20072008 Weather Forecasting Research.

Proposed activities (from Thorpex International Science Plan):• Increase knowledge of global-to-regional influences on the initiation,

evolution and predictability of high-impact weather. • Contribute to the design and demonstration of interactive forecast system

that allow information to flow between forecast users, numerical forecast models, data assimilation system and observations to maximize forecast skill and enhance the utility of weather forecasts.

Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme(WWRP THORPEX) and World Weather Watch Programme

Evolution and prediction of high impact weather events can save life and property

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IPY20072008 Climate Assessment

Proposed activities:

• Participate in development of a joint WMO/ICSU comprehensive IPYdata management plan and coordinate establishment of a comprehensive database of historical polar climate and related data

• Investigate teleconnections between polar regions and the lower latitudes, in an effort to improve climate prediction

• Assess and project future climate change in polar regions

• Develop tailored climate products for application to, for example, the energy, health, or tourism sectors at high latitudes.

World Climate, World Climate Research, and WMO Space Programmes

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IPY20072008 Arctic in the global climate

system

66°33’ 66°33’

Freezingmelting

P e r m a f r o s t

L a n dWorldOcean

ArcticOcean

Warm, salty water

OpenOcean deep

convection

Deepwater outflow

Runoff

FW

disch

arge

CO2

Aerosol

O Z O N L A YER

FW + ice outflow

Heat

Mois

ure

S U N

Accumulation melting

ICE CAPsnow; sheet; glacier

Shel

f Co

nvec

tion

C L O U D S

y

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IPY20072008 Rapid climate change affect the

vulnerable ecosystems in Polar regions

Anomalies of annual surfaceair temperature :

1 – to the north of 62 °N(Polyakov et al., 2003);

2 – in Northern Hemisphere(Jones et al., 2003).

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

1

2

C

Change of sea ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

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9

10

11

12

13

106 km2

1 2

3

Annual ice extent:1 - NH (Chapman, Walsh)2 - NH (Johannessen et al., 2003)3 - Arctic Ocean & Nordic Seas (Zakharov, 2003)

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IPY20072008 Climate and Cryosphere

Proposed activities:

• Intensify of polar climate studies addressing the role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling, cryospheric processes and feedbacks through which the cryosphere interacts with other components of the climate system

• Assess the impacts of past and future climatic variability and change on components of the cryosphere and their consequences

• Enhance the observation and monitoring of the cryosphere in support of process studies, model evaluation, and change detection.

World Climate Research Programme/Climate and Cryosphere Project

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IPY20072008 What is the cryosphere?

It is part of a climate system, which includes:• permafrost• ground ice• snow• sea ice• river and lake ice• glaciers• ice caps

Permafrost legendContinuousDiscontinuousSporadicOffshore permafrost The Arctic region is an area

of the most pronounced climatic changes and manifestation of their

consequences such as a decay of the permafrost

coast of the Arctic Seas

Ice sheetIce extent in SeptemberIce extent in April

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IPY20072008

Ice flow, ice streams,drainage basins

Courtesy WCRP/CLiC

Different basins –different “climates”

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IPY20072008

Vostok ice-core recordsand sea level change

(courtesy A. Frolov)

400 300 200 100 0Age (thousand years before present)

-20-15-10-505

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Tem

pera

ture

(C

)

200

240

280

320

360

CO

2 (p

pmv)

-120

-80

-40

0

40

Sea

leve

l (m

)

Temperature

CO2

Sea level

11 1

3579

Present-day level

Vostok ice core samples

Drilling tower at Vostokstation, Antarctica

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IPY20072008 Polar Oceanography (WMO/IOC)

Proposed activities:• To investigate physical processes in polar oceans, such as

the formation of deep water, sea ice formation and melting, etc. , as well as the role of polar oceans in climate change.

• To establish the Arctic Ocean and the Southern Ocean Observing Systems.

• To collect a comprehensive data set of IPY observations containing a high resolution snapshot of the polar oceans and the atmosphere above.

WMO Marine Meteorology and Oceanography and Space Programmes,WCRP CLIVAR and CliC

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IPY20072008

ANTARCTIC BOTTOM WATER

(From Gordon & Comiso, 1988), courtesy I. Allison

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IPY20072008

Global Ocean Observing System:IOC/WMO

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IPY20072008

Ice Covered Ocean Observing System: tools and platforms

Multipurpose research vessel for ice covered ocean investigations and supply operations in the Arctic and Antarctic

Drifting research ice camp for Central Arctic ocean investigations

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IPY20072008

Electromagnetic Induction Techniques for Measuring Antarctic Sea Ice Thickness

EM31 and laser mounted on a boom which is approx. 10 m from the ship’s hull and 3 m above the ice.

EM data are recorded every second. Laser data are recorded at 27 Hz.

Pitch and roll data are recorded every second.

Courtesy I.Allison

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IPY20072008 Hydrology and Water Resources

Proposed activities:

• Achieve quantitative understanding of fresh water input to the Arctic Basin and Southern Ocean

• Implement the ARCTIC-HYCOS project and provide data on river input to the Arctic basin over the entire Arctic drainage area by the establishment of the observational network with 40 Data Collection Platforms.

WMO Hydrology and Water Resources and Space Programmes

Changes in the runoff of the Arctic rivers can have significant regional and local implications. Consequences of the spring flood on the Lena

River in the Lensk area

(courtesy A.Frolov)

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IPY20072008 Observing System:

hydrology

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2

1 1 2

34

Mackenzie

Lena

PechoraPasvic

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IPY20072008 Organizational Aspects

Establishment of the following working bodies:• IPY Joint Organizing Committee (WMO, ICSU and

other relevant international organizations)• International Polar Year Consultative Forum• Project Steering Committees, responsible for

implementation of individual projects• IPY International Programme Office• WMO Intercommission Task Group on IPYResources to support implementation process:• National programmes• Regional and International bodies• WMO Programmes• IPY Trust Fund $

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IPY20072008 Collaboration with other international

organizations– Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), – United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP), – Arctic Council, – Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting (ATCM), – International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), – Scientific Committee of Antarctic Research (SCAR), – Forum of Antarctic Research Operators (FARO), – Council of Managers of National Antarctic Programme

(COMNAP)– International Ocean Institute (IOI)

are invited to contribute, through their Members, to the intensification of scientific research and the development of technical and logistical infrastructure for operations and research in polar regions during the preparation and implementation stages of the IPY.

From WMO EC-LVI(June,2004) General summary, par.15.3.6

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IPY20072008 Thank you!