2005 Banking Sector Outlook e

8/4/2019 2005 Banking Sector Outlook e

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Swiss Banking Sector

2005 Chartset


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Swiss Banking Sector 2005Page 2 Dec 2005

Banking sector at a glance

* Legally dependent branches only. Total employment of representative offices, branches andsubsidiaries abroad : 75,900 (2004) ** Offices in Switzerland onlySource: SNB, SBA

116113118121125Personnel (in 1,000)

1614141413of which personnel abroad*

3,5463,2932,9453,3743,677Client portfolios (in CHF bn)**

245226239226228of which offices abroad

148148147150150of which foreign banks

1,877

310

1,316

2,237

3,833

342

2003

1,892

407

1,305

2,227

3,959

369

2001

2,0031,6592,016of non-resident clients

315339412Fiduciary assets (in CHF bn)

338356375Number of institutions

1,5291,3481,196of which foreign assets

2,4912,2522,125Total assets (in CHF bn)

3,7833,9124,037Number of branch offices

200420022000

A large, diversified and internationally oriented banking system


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Structural indicators

... bank consolidation process driven by domestic M&A activity

Source: SNB, SBA

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

Number of banks (left-hand scale)Personnel (in thousands, right-hand scale)


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* UBS, Credit Suisse, and Credit Suisse First Boston ** 451 affiliated banks

Source: SNB, SBA

115.60.6

1.2

3.6

2.7

4.3

9.8

6.3

17.5

16.7

53.1

Personnel(in 1,000)

100.0%2,490.8338Total0.1%3.54Other banks

0.6%14.925Branches of foreign banks

0.7%16.814Private bankers

1.7%42.98Trading banks

3.3%81.583Regional banks& savings banks

3.4%85.553Stock exchange banks

4.3%106.11Raiffeisen banks**

7.3%181.6123Foreign-controlled banks

12.6%314.324Cantonal banks

66.0%1,643.53Big banks*

Share intotal assets

Assets(in CHF bn)

Numberof banks2004

a small number of global financial services providers and aconstellation of boutiques


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Source: SNB, SECO, SBA

... balance sheet positions have expanded at a robust pace sincethe mid-1990s ...

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

InCHFbillions

GDP at current price Total bank assets


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6,175

6,395

3,994

1,472

501

726

425

113

430

2,230

940

342

2003

1,6181,5321,4751,362CHETotal assets

4,4153,8323,7693,503FRA(in EUR bn)

6,5846,3706,2696,064DEU

6,9705,8545,8305,228GBR

.428425405FRA(in thousands)

712754772776DEU

9009901,0501,100FRAbanks

2,1502,3602,5302,740DEU

GBR

CHE

GBR

CHE

511502506483

410450450490

116

338

2004

121

369

2001

356375Number of

118125Personnel

20022000

Source: SNB, ECB, SBA

the banking sector compares well against its global peers


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bank assets total around five times the GDP, more than in anyneighbouring countries

Source: SNB, SECO, ECB, SBA

310%

310%

300%

260%

260%

260%

160%

520%

0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600%

Switzerland

Belgium

Netherlands

Germany

France

United Kingdom

AustriaItaly

Total assets (in % of GDP, 2004)


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Economic significance

banking generates twice as much added value as in the U.S.,France or Germany

Source: BAK, SBA

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Value-added in banking (in % of GDP)


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Swiss Banking Sector 2005Page 10 D ec 2005

Bank lending

100.0%633.3610.6603.8609.2Total

13.2%83.587.597.8114.0Other loans

21.0%132.7129.8133.4133.9Mortgage loans

0.3%2.22.12.63.1Construction loans

34.5%218.4219.5233.8251.1Lending to companies

4.4%27.928.429.432.2Other loans

60.6%383.9359.6336.9321.9Mortgage loans

0.5%3.13.23.74.1Construction loans

65.5%414.9391.1370.0358.1Lending to households

Share in

total loans2004200320022001In CHF bn

Source: SNB, SBA

... the depth of financial intermediation is reflected in recordhigh share of private-sector credit to GDP over 150% ...


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Bank lending

56%

31%

13%

Microenterprises(up to 9 employees)

SMEs

(10 to 249 employees)

Large enterprises

(more than 250 employees)

... the lion's share of credit is directed towards micro, small andmedium-sized enterprises ...

Source: SNB, SBA


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Wealth management

... a core strength of the Swiss financial centre lies in itsleading global position in investment management ...

100.0%3,54632932,9453,374Total

4.7%165150150164Enterprises

27.2%964852709755Institutional clients

24.6%873876800973Private clients

56.5%2,00318771,6591,892Foreign-client portfolios

6.0%212206182226Enterprises

23.2%822724660726Institutional clients

14.4%509485444592Private clients

43.5%1,5431,4161,2861,482Swiss-client portfolios

Share in

total assets2004200320022001In CHF bn

Note: Banks in Switzerland are estimated to hold a market share of one-third ininternational private banking (Boston Consulting Group, 'Global Wealth 2004')

Source: SNB, SBA


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Wealth & asset management

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Swiss clients Foreign clients

Securitiesportfoliosby

currency

CHF

EUR

USD

Other currencies

... whereas foreign-client portfolios are equally distributed betweenhard currencies, Swiss-client ones display a typical 'home bias' ...

Source: SNB, SBA


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Performance indicators

15.512.89.311.719.2Profit (after tax and extraord.items, in CHF bn)

0.6%0.6%0.4%0.5%0.9%Return on assets (ROA)**

12.6%10.7%7.8%9.7%16.3%Return on equity (ROE)***

60.5%61.1%58.7%60.7%54.6%Cost-to-income ratio*

41.1%

42.9%

54.9

2003

41.1%

37.2%

61.3

2001

38.6%37.6%34.4%

Net interest income

(in % of total income)

42.4%38.5%42.1%Net commission income(in % of total income)

58.559.368.7Total income (in CHF bn)

200420022000

* total expenses divided by total income ** net profit divided by total assets*** net profit divided by equitySource: SNB, SBA

... banking industry posts robust earnings, even though it isexposed to economic and market fluctuations


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Source: SNB, SBA

profitability of equity investment is steadily on the rise

6.4%

9.5%

11.4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004Average Return on Equity (ROE)


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commission income is gradually overtaking net interestincome ...

Source: SNB, SBA

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

%oftotaloperati

ngincome

Net interest income Commission incomeNet dealing income Other income


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50

75

100

125

150

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

SPI SPI Banks SMI

banks' equity prices have out-performed in the recent economicupturn ...

Note: Dec 31, 2000 = 100Source: SWX, SBA


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* 0 (respectively 100) indicates the lowest (highest) possible average rating

Source: Moodys, IMF, SBA

aggregate bank financial strength is at comfortable levels

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

United Kingdom

United States

Canada

Switzerland

France

Italy

Germany

Japan

Moody's average bank financial s trength ratings (2004)*


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Macroeconomic indicators

the recent broad-based growth momentum is driven bystrong external demand and improving private consumption

Source: SECO, SBA

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Real GDP (annual % changes, left-hand scale)Index of consumer sentiment (right-hand scale)


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Macroeconomic indicators

despite repeated oil shocks, inflation is at historically lowand stable levels ...

Source: SECO, SBA

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Annual%changes

Total inflation Domestic inflation Imported inflation


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Financial market indicators

... enduringly expansive monetary conditions, despite thegradual normalisation of the policy stance ...

Source: SNB, SBA

0

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Interestrateandyield(in%)

3-month LIBOR CHF 10-year Swiss Conf. bond yield


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... the tendency towards long-run nominal appreciation of theSwiss franc persists ...

Source: SNB, SBA

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

GBPCHF EURCHF USDCHF JPYCHF (100)


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the Swiss franc is the world fifth most traded currency

Source: BIS, SNB

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2001 2004

Sharesofaveragedailytu

rnover(in%)

USD

EURJPY

GBP

CHF

Other currencies



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further enquiries:

Steve DonzHead Economic AdvisorySwiss Bankers Association

+41-61-295-93-02

[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

2005 Banking Sector Outlook e

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