2 t.k.-tk employment elderly thailand ppt

EMPLOYMENT BEHAVIOUR OF THE ELDERLY

IN THAILAND

Thuttai Keeratipongpaiboon

Department of Economics

School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London

The 11th IFA Global Conference on Ageing

28 May – 1 June 2012. Prague, the Czech Republic

International Federation on Ageing (IFA)

A part of the CSEAS Project

Structure

1 2 3 4

2

1

3

Introduction

Old-Age Employment Situation in Thailand

Determinant of Employment Decisions of the Elderly

4 Conclusion

2

Introduction

1 2 3 4

• Increasing longevity: longer period of retirement

•Thai elderly people cannot rely on their own savings and invisible pensions: need family supports

•Urbanisation has deteriorated strength of family relationship: what happen to Thai elderly people?

•Possibility: a number of Thai elderly people have to be economically active for their own survival.

•Research aim: to study dynamic of employment behaviour of the elderly in Thailand

Significance of the Research

Methodology

• Data

• Socio-Economic Survey (SES) Data, 1990-2007 (National Statistical Office)

• Survey of the Older Persons in Thailand (SOP), 2007 (National Statistical Office)

• Secondary data from reliable sources

• Methodology

• Descriptive Analysis

• Econometric Analysis – using a Probit regression model

3

Situation of Population Ageing in Thailand

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, CD-ROM Edition. 4

Old-age Dependency Ratio is on an upward trend: Thailand has the highest rate in the SEA region 1 2 3 4

0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

14,0

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Old

-Ag

e D

ep

en

de

ncy

Ra

tio

(%

65

+/1

5-6

4)

Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Indonesia LAOS

Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore

Thailand Timor-Leste Viet Nam

Remark: an old-age dependency ratio is defined as a ratio of population 65+ per 100 population 15-64.

In 2007, the majority are:

• Attaining primary education or less

(91.78%)

• Female (56.27%)

• Household heads (59.87%)

• Married (60.68%)

• Able to go out without assistance

(healthy, 87.08%)

• Not working (58.09%)

• Not living in a household with pension

incomes (94.60%)

• Living in the Northeast (35.39%)

• Living with their children (60.39%)

• Living in three-generational households

(36.92%)

Average age of Thai elderly increased

from 69.15 (1990) to 69.72 years.

Summary of the Elderly in Thailand

Source: author’s own calculation from the 1990-2007 SES data 5

Share of the Elderly by Living Arrangements, Thailand, 1990-2007

Remark: *excluding skipped generation households

1 2 3 4

Share of the Elderly by employment situation, Thailand, 1990-2007

• The labour-force participation rates of Thai elderly

persons are quite high; higher than the world

average.

• Almost one-fifth of Thai females aged 65 and over

were found in the workforce in 2005.

• The LFP rates of females are quite high

comparatively to Asia, LAC, Economies in Transition

and the World.

• The share of elderly in Thailand’s labour force is on

an upward trend; increasing from 3.7% to 7.0%

during 1986-2006.

Old-Age Employment Situation

1 2 3 4

6

Labour Force Participation Rates, the World Regions, 2005

Source: United Nations (2007, p.61, Table IV.2), Development in an Ageing World; Author’s own calculation from the ILO’s data, http://laborsta.ilo.org/ accessed on 12 march 2012.

Region/Country1

Age Group

25-54 55-64 65+

Men Women Men Women Men Women

World 95.1 66.7 73.5 38.7 30.2 11.3

Developed Countries 91.9 75.3 63.9 44.9 13.4 6.3

Economies in Transition 90.7 81.3 52.6 31.2 14.2 7.8

Africa 96.2 61.0 86.5 48.3 57.4 25.8

Asia 96.3 64.2 77.6 35.4 38.0 13.2

Latin America and the Caribbean 94.3 64.3 76.1 37.2 37.2 13.7

Oceania 87.4 73.3 76.0 60.6 51.4 33.4

Thailand 95.9 82.2 81.8 65.7 41.0 21.7

Source: summarised from the Ministry of Labour (2007), The Situation of Old-Age Employment in Thailand.

http://laborsta.ilo.org/



1 2 3 4 Situations of Old-Age Labour Force, Thailand, 1986-2006

Sourc

e:

sum

marise

d f

rom

the M

inis

try o

f Labour

(2007),

The S

ituation o

f O

ld-A

ge E

mplo

yment

in T

haila

nd.

•Trends: more females, more older elderly (65+), better educated.

•The majority are self-employed (60.97% in 2006). More elderly people are recently found in the private sector.


1 2 3 4

8

Old-Age Employment Situations Thailand by Living Arrangements, 2007

Source: author’s own calculation from the 2007 SOP data


1 2 3 4

9

The Situation of Old-Age Employment in Thailand, by Living Arrangements and Age Group, 2007


5.1

13.8

20.7

35.6

47.3

22.4

29.6

6.7

15.1

21.623.4

35.6

52.1

33.0

6.4

14.1

32.4

55.0

34.0

42.6

45.6

13.7

23.3

31.1

45.0

61.7

33.4

43.0

7.6

16.8

25.1

39.5

53.6

35.6

26.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Total Elderly (60+) Total Elderly (65+) 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 and over

Age Groups (Year)

Percen

tag

e o

f E

co

no

mic

all

y A

cti

ve E

lderly

Perso

ns

in E

ach

Ag

e G

ro

up

(%

)

Three-or-More-Generational Households Two-Generational Households (excl. Skipped) Skipped Generation Households

One-Generational Households All Living Arrangements


1 2 3 4

10

Reasons for Remaining in the Labour Force of the Elderly, by living arrangements, 2007


36.3541.49

34.83 34.60 33.20

51.72 43.86 54.88 57.4154.83

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

All Living Arrangements Three-or-More-

Generational Households

Two-Generational

Households (exc Skipped)

Skipped Generation

Households

One-Generational

Households

Still Healthy Looking after themselves/family Looking after their children

Noone can replace the job Not retire yet Having debt

Spend time Help child(ren)/ family members Others


1 2 3 4

11

Reasons for Leaving the Labour Force of the Elderly, by living arrangements, 2007


9.13 8.59 8.15

19.12

7.03

72.61 77.80

71.10

61.12

69.94

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

All Living Arrangements Three-or-More-Generational

Households

Two-Generational

Households (exc Skipped)

Skipped Generation

Households

O ne-Generational

Households

Household working/ looking after family members Spouse/Child(ren) do not allow to work Waiting for next season

Too old Incapable for work with disability Illness

Voluntary idle Looking or waiting for a job Pension official

To rest Others

Determinant of Old-Age Employment

12

Variables Year

1990 1994 1998 2004 2007

I. Demographic Factors

- Age -0.027*** -0.028*** -0.029*** -0.029*** -0.028***

(-11.14) (-14.41) (-18.38) (-17.17) (-22.15)

- Secondary Education -0.207*** -0.018 -0.012 -0.014 -0.037

(-3.31) (-0.30) (-0.19) (-0.35) (-1.21)

- Bachelor’s Degree 0.011 -0.107 0.050 -0.038 -0.117***

(0.10) (-1.16) (0.43) (-0.73) (-2.64)

- Master’s Degree or Higher 0.187 -0.024 -0.204**

(1.40) (-0.16) (-2.45)

- Male 0.118*** 0.056* 0.113*** 0.075*** 0.165***

(2.67) (1.72) (4.19) (3.32) (8.83)

- Household Head 0.177*** 0.262*** 0.188*** 0.273*** 0.228***

(3.37) (6.90) (7.11) (12.40) (12.23)

- Married 0.191*** 0.220*** 0.173*** 0.177*** 0.156***

(4.81) (6.87) (7.13) (7.73) (8.42)

- Able to go out by Themselves

without Assistance

0.269***

(10.98)

- Access to Medical Welfare -0.014 0.004

(-0.40) (0.11)

II. Economic Factors

- Pensions (Yes) -0.086 -0.145** -0.066 -0.145*** -0.114***

(-1.23) (-1.99) (-1.27) (-3.05) (-3.09)

- Transfer Payments (Yes) 0.024 -0.026 0.012 -0.026

(0.61) (-0.88) (0.58) (-1.31)

- Poverty (Yes) 0.055 0.093** 0.036 0.080*** 0.024

(1.27) (2.50) (1.01) (2.67) (0.90)

- Savings (Yes) 0.007 -0.017 0.014 -0.003 -0.012

(0.22) (-0.67) (0.60) (-0.21) (-0.73)

Variables Year

1990 1994 1998 2004 2007

III. Household Characteristics

- Central 0.049 0.050 0.073 0.048 0.126***

(0.61) (0.84) (1.19) (1.40) (3.78)

- North 0.032 -0.022 0.050 0.040 0.122***

(0.39) (-0.38) (0.81) (1.14) (3.53)

- Northeast -0.013 0.055 -0.020 0.058 0.112***

(-0.16) (0.90) (-0.36) (1.62) (3.25)

- South 0.170* 0.081 0.125** 0.127*** 0.187***

(1.84) (1.25) (1.97) (3.21) (4.91)

- Rural -0.073* 0.000 0.013 -0.060*** -0.035**

(-1.65) (0.02) (0.39) (-3.72) (-2.46)

- Live in Three-or-More-

Generational Household

-0.040 -0.017 -0.125*** -0.056*

(-0.69) (-0.41) (-3.07) (-1.84)

- Live in Two-Generational

Household

-0.085 -0.208*** -0.154*** -0.230*** -0.198***

(-1.65) (-5.72) (-5.51) (-9.10) (-9.35)

- Live in Skipped Generation

Household

0.288*** 0.280*** 0.309*** 0.254*** 0.295***

(4.39) (5.92) (7.46) (7.63) (10.00)

- Household Size -0.210*** -0.205*** -0.186*** -0.213*** -0.256***

(-10.76) (-9.73) (-13.61) (-15.37) (-22.38)

- Household In the Agricultural

Sector

0.086** 0.114*** 0.102*** 0.430*** 0.386***

(2.25) (3.57) (4.15) (20.47) (20.59)

- Number of Recipients in

Household

-0.119*** -0.133*** -0.129*** 0.001

(-4.96) (-7.05) (-7.50) (0.12)

- Number of Earners in Household 0.431*** 0.493*** 0.465*** 0.438*** 0.494***

(15.17) (19.82) (23.57) (27.01) (34.02)

Number of Observations 2,279 5,861 6,913 15,478 20,120

Wald Chi-Squared 474.66 894.06 1085.73 1883.94 2785.62

Probability > Chi-Squared 0.0000*** 0.0000*** 0.0000*** 0.0000*** 0.0000***

Pseudo R-Squared 0.4974 0.5670 0.5660 0.6041 0.6240

Log Pseudo-Likelihood -796.59 -1724.72 -1986.62 -4175.35 -5144.71

1 2 3 4

Source: author’s own calculation from the 1990-2007 SES data

Determinant of Old-Age Employment

13

Significant Factors:

•Demographic Factors: age(-), male(+), household head(+), married(+), healthy(+)

•Economic Factors: pensions(-), poverty(+)

•Household Characteristics: rural(-), agricultural(+), household size(-),

one-generational households(+)

Key Findings:

•The elderly living in one-generational households are more likely to be economically

active than those staying in other living arrangements.

•Implying: the presence of adult children is one of the key factors in the older persons’

decision to continue or to quit working.

1 2 3 4

Conclusions

1 2 3 4

Conclusions

Policy Implications

• Although working could contribute to the country’s economic development, elderly employment

should be also considered in its social aspects.

• Ideally, older persons should continue working as long as they wish and as long as their ability and

competency allow them to do.

• The labour-force participation rates of the elderly have been increasing over these two decades.

• The majority of employed older persons are male, aged between 60-69, low-educated, married and

self-employed.

• Elderly persons living in one-generational households are more likely to be economically active than

those staying in other living arrangements.

• The main reason for remaining in the workforce is financial i.e. poverty and low family support.

Another reason is that they are too healthy to retire.

• The key factor of labour-force withdrawal is health problems; they are too old to work.

14

Thank You

15

Thuttai Keeratipongpaiboon

Department of Economics

SOAS, University of London

Email: [email protected]

Supporting Documents

16

Living Arrangements of the Elderly

1990 2007

• The majority of elderly people in Bangkok live in two-generational households. Meanwhile, the majority of

older persons in the Northeast and Central regions live in three-generational households.

• Trend: more elderly people are found in one-generational households in every region.

• Skipped generational households are mostly found in the Northeast and North regions; an upward trend.

• The average size of household is decreasing in every region. This is because of a delay of marriage and

changing value towards having children. 17

Share of the Elderly, by Living Arrangements and Regions of Residence, 1990 & 2007

Source: author’s own calculation from the 1990 and 2007 SES data

Factors affecting Family Relationship

Source: Mason (1992), Figure 1 18

Key factors to decrease the importance of family: Industrialisation, Urbanisation and Migration

Industrialisation

Urbanisation

Migration

Family Productive Enterprise

Wage Employment of Individuals

Cost of Home-produced Goods

Demand for Female Labour

Universal Primary and Secondary Schooling

Per Capita Income Fertility

Child Survival

Filial Piety

Parental Power

Female Labour Force Participations

Joint/Stem Family

Ability to Purchase Privacy/Care

Availability of Caregivers

Housing Availability

Separation of the Generations

Care of the Elderly

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

+ -

-

+

+

+

- +

+

+

- +

-

+

+

+

+

- -

-

-

-

Remarks: - Straight and single-headed arrows show casual relationships that run from the cause to the effect; meanwhile, curved and double-headed arrows represent correlated factors,

- A sign shown next to the arrow demonstrates a relation between factors. The net impact of factors can be calculated by multiplying the signs. For example, if there is a negative sign between factor A and B, and also a negative sign between factor B and C, the relationship of factors A and C is positive.

Regional Population Ageing in Thailand

Region

Share of the Elderly (%) Old-Age Dependency Ratio (%)

2000 2010 2020 2025 2000 2010 2020 2025

Whole Kingdom 9.43 11.90 17.51 21.22 14.30 17.61 26.58 33.28

Bangkok 7.88 11.28 20.40 26.97 10.61 16.06 30.68 42.50

Central (excl.BKK) 9.84 11.63 16.98 20.80 14.54 16.87 25.18 31.83

North 11.09 13.43 20.16 24.21 17.02 19.65 31.02 39.08

North-East 8.71 11.93 16.95 20.12 13.62 17.99 25.92 31.67

South 9.41 10.76 14.61 17.45 15.06 16.42 22.45 27.28

Source: Author’s own calculation from the Thailand’s Population Projection 2000-2030 provided by NESDB 19

Shares of the Elderly and Old-Age Dependency Rations, Thailand, 2000-2025

Age Profiles of Household Savings

Age Profiles of Savings (Whole Kingdom), by ages of household heads, 2007

100

exp x

incomecapitaperhousehold

enditurenconsumptiocapitaperhouseholdincomecapitaperhouseholdratiosavinghousehold

Source: Author’s own calculation from the 2007 SES data provided by NSO 20

• Poor if household per capita income is

below the poverty line

•The majority of poor elderly people

are in the Northeast region.

•Rich households have positive

savings; meanwhile, poor households

are likely to face the problem of

insufficient income.

Old-Age Poverty

21

Regions Total Elderly People

(%)

Share of Poor Elderly People to Total Elderly People (%)

1990 1994 1998 2004 2007

Whole Kingdom 100.00 25.61 20.96 18.14 13.55 12.82 Bangkok 100.00 7.14 2.34 1.79 1.79 1.55 Central (excl.BKK) 100.00 21.93 10.97 13.25 7.95 5.26 North 100.00 26.85 19.77 15.97 19.77 14.18 North-East 100.00 30.61 32.18 27.10 17.65 20.40 South 100.00 31.29 18.63 15.36 10.36 9.55

Share of the Poor Elderly (60+), by Region, Thailand, 1990-2007

Source: Author’s own calculation from the 2007 SES data

Age Profiles of Household Savings, by Income Groups, Thailand, 2007

Source: Author’s own calculation from the 1990-2007 SES data

Source: Author’s own calculation from the 1990-2007 SES data

Share of Poor Elderly People, by Region, Thailand, 1990-2007

100

exp x

incomecapitaperhousehold

enditurenconsumptiocapitaperhouseholdincomecapitaperhouseholdratesavinghousehold

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

Ho

use

ho

ld S

av

ing

Ra

te (

%)

Age of Household Head

1st Decile 2nd Decile 3rd Decile 4th Decile 5th Decile

6th Decile 7th Decile 8th Decile 9th Decile 10th Decile

Fertility in Thailand

Remarks: 1 Bangkok was included in the Central region during 1960-1969;

2 1970 Census with Own Children Estimate, National Statistic Office;



5 2000 Census with Indirect Method Estimate, National Statistic Office;

6 The United Nations (2009a), World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision;

7 Survey of Population Change, National Statistical Office.

Source: adapted from Table 1 in Prachuabmoh and Mithranon (2003). 22

Source

and Year

Whole

Kingdom Bangkok

Central (exclude

Bangkok) North Northeast South

Census

1960-19642 6.48 n/a

1 6.06 6.36 6.97 6.52

1965-19692 6.19 n/a

1 5.32 5.71 7.20 6.48

1970-19743 5.41 3.15 4.75 4.74 6.78 5.95

1975-19793 3.88 2.40 3.43 3.23 4.88 4.59

19894 2.28 1.30 2.02 1.98 2.78 2.85

20005 1.82 1.17 1.53 1.76 2.15 2.25

2010-20506 1.85 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

SPC7

1964-1965 6.30 n/a1 5.90 6.47 6.61 6.02

1974-1976 4.90 3.46 4.11 3.74 6.25 6.12

1985-1986 2.73 1.74 2.49 2.25 3.10 4.05

1989 2.41 1.41 2.17 2.06 2.87 3.31

1991 2.17 1.13 1.95 1.97 2.67 2.98

1995-1996 2.02 1.26 1.66 1.89 2.44 2.85

Alternative Old-Age Dependency Ratios

23

Name Description

The Standard The proportion of total elderly population to total working-age

population

Type 1 The proportion of total elderly population to economically active working-age population

Type 2 The proportion of non-economically active elderly population to

economically active working-age population

Type 3 The proportion of non-economically active elderly population to economically active population aged 15 and over

Type 4 The proportion of non-economically active elderly population to

total working-age population


Source: Author’s calculation, using the data of the International Labour Organization, http://laborsta.ilo.org/, accessed on 1 March 2010. 24

Standard and Alternative Old-age Dependency Ratios, the World, 1980-2020

Estimates Projections



Source: Author’s calculation, using the data of the International Labour Organization, http://laborsta.ilo.org/, accessed on 1 March 2010. 25

Standard and Alternative Old-age Dependency Ratios, Thailand, 1980-2020

Estimates Projections


Natural Increases and Net Migration

Remark: Natural Increase = Births – Deaths

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat,

World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm accessed 8 March 2012. 26

Estimates (1950-2010) and Projections (2010-2050), Thailand

Thailand

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

19

50

-55

19

55

-60

19

60

-65

19

65

-70

19

70

-75

19

75

-80

19

80

-85

19

85

-90

19

90

-95

19

95

-00

20

00

-05

20

05

-10

20

10

-15

20

15

-20

20

20

-25

20

25

-30

20

30

-35

20

35

-40

20

40

-45

20

45

-50

('0

00

) p

ers

on

s

Natural Increase Net Migration

http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm

2 t.k.-tk employment elderly thailand ppt

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