2 sun shot perspective-pathways to reducing pv lcoe

energy.gov/sunshot

energy.gov/sunshot

A SunShot Perspective: Pathways to Reducing PV LCOE

Becca Jones‐Albertus, PhDProgram Manager for Photovoltaics

energy.gov/sunshot

Outline

• The SunShot Initiative and Where we are Today

• Quantifying Impacts on LCOE

• SunShot Funding and Opportunities

1

energy.gov/sunshotenergy.gov/sunshot

SunShotInitiative

SunShot 2020 Goal: 6¢/kWh without subsidy

Enabling PV to supply ~10% of U.S. electricity by 2030

Price

6¢/kWh

SunShot Initiative

Solar Coal Nuclear Gas


Calculated LCOE for Photovoltaics Systems in the U.S.

3

Without tax credit

With tax credit

Ranges represent geographic variation across the U.S.


MAJOR PROGRESS27.4GW 5,400,000

average American homes

At the end of 2015…

Enough to powerSolar capacity has grown

23‐foldsince President Obama took office.

Solar accounted for

34% of all new electrical generation capacity installed in 2015.

8,000solar businesses in the U.S.

$16.3 billion: Value of the U.S. solar market

in 2015

53% Solar systems costs are down

50% Since 2010

U.S. Capacity & Economic Impact

Solar now generating 1% of U.S. electricity with one MILLION installations


One Path To the 2020 SunShot Goal via PV Technology

Benchmark 100 MW Utility Systems With 1,480 kWh/kW First Year Performance. No ITC but Five Year MACRS is Included.

5

R. Jones‐Albertus et al., Prog. in PV: Res. and Appl., in press.

energy.gov/sunshot

Unlocking PV’s Potential

• SunShot 2020 goal is cost‐competiveness at low penetrations

• As PV penetration increases, value of PV energy decreases

• To continue rapid rate of PV installations:• Continue to decrease cost

• Increase value (e.g., grid services, dispatchability) 6

Source: Varun Sivaram & Shayle Kann. “Solar power needs a more ambitious cost target.” Nature Energy. April 2016.

energy.gov/sunshotFORECASTING

SUPPLY SHIFTING

LOAD SHIFTING

Increasing Value: Dispatchable PV

ADDITIONAL LOAD


Decreasing Costs: A Pathway To 3¢/kWh


8


energy.gov/sunshot

Outline


• Quantifying Technology Impacts on LCOE


9


SunShot Photovoltaics R&D Perspective

10


LCOE includes Lifecycle Costs and Impact of Location

11

Installation Cost + Annual O&M Costs

n

1+ Discount Rate nn=1

N

Depreciation

n

1+ Discount Rate nx(Tax Rate) Residual Value


N

Initial kWh/kW

1+ Discount Rate nx(1- System Degradation Rate)n

n=1

N


Lifecycle Costs are a Major LCOE Driver


12


If taken alone: 2.7 cents/kWh


Better Performance is Worth More

13

SunShot 2020 Baseline for Utility Scale:20% efficiency, 0.2%/yr degradation rate. $0.40/W Module, $0.10/W Inverter, and $0.60/W BOS and Overhead

Analysis assumes cost of non-module components reduced to 65% of 2014 values

20% efficiency $0.40/W



Metric Sets to Achieve the SunShot 2020 Goal (6¢/kWh)


Better Performance is Worth More

14

Analysis assumes cost of non-module components reduced to 65% of 2014 values

-8¢/W

+30¢/W





• Greater energy output over the system lifetime• Reduced financing rates through reduced uncertainty in

performance• Financing is also impacted by other factors, such as credit

worthiness of the system owner, and the system financing structure and term

15

The Impact of Reliability and Durability


• Greater energy output over the system lifetime• Reduced financing rates through reduced uncertainty in

performance

16

The Impact of Reliability and Durability

42% LCOE Reduction

2015 Utility Baseline


Source of LCOE data: Mike Woodhouse, NREL

Source of figure: D C Jordan, S R Kurtz, K T van Sant, and J Newmiller, ‘Compendium of Photovoltaic Degradation Rates’, 2016, Accepted by Progress in PV.

80

85

90

95

100

Y

0 5 10 15 20 25

Year

Linear, 0.5 %/yearExponential2‐stepLinear, 0.16 %/year

Nam

eplate ra

ting (%

)

Year

Linear0.5%/year

Exponential 2-step 90% start,0.16%/yr

10.8¢/kWh 11.2¢/kWh 10.5¢/kWh 11.5¢/kWh

Degradation Rate Shape Impacts LCOE

10.8¢

11.2¢

11.5¢

10.5¢

energy.gov/sunshot

2010 to 2015 ($20/kW.yr to $15/kW.yr)

2015 to 2020 ($15/kW.yr to $7/kW.yr)

-0.4 ¢/kWh -0.6 ¢/kWh

Impact of O&M Expenses and Discount Rates (Utility‐Scale)

Source: Mike Woodhouse, NREL

energy.gov/sunshot

Impact of O&M Expenses and Discount Rates (Residential)

Source: Mike Woodhouse, NREL

2010 to 2015 ($33/kW.yr to $20/kW.yr)

2015 to 2020 ($20/kW.yr to $10/kW.yr)

-0.9¢/kWh -0.7¢/kWh

energy.gov/sunshot

Outline


• Quantifying Impacts on LCOE


20


Reliability/Durability/O&M: 2016‐2018

Regional Test Centers Program: $8.3M

Degradation Assessment of Fielded CIGS Photovoltaic

Module Technologies: $3.0M

Support of International PV Module Quality Assurance Task Force (PVQAT):

$10.0M

Scientific Approach to Reducing PV Module Material Costs While Increasing Durability: $2.5M

Funding Total (FY16-FY18): ~$53M

Improving PV performance estimates in the System Advisor Model with component and

system reliability metrics: $0.6M

Manufacturing and Reliability Science for

CIGS Photovoltaics: $4M

From Modules to Atoms: Increasing Reliability/Stability of Commercially‐Relevant PV

Technologies: $6M

Novel Accelerated Aging Protocols for PV Modules (PREDICTS2 EPRI): $1M

Non‐destructive evaluation of water ingress in PV modules (PREDICTS2, LLNL): $0.6M

Predictive Models and Novel Accelerated Tests for the Reliability of Cell Metallization and Solder Joints in PV Modules (PREDICTS2, SunPower):

$1.3M

Module‐Level Exposure and Evaluation Test for PV Modules (PREDICTS2 CWRU): $1.4M

Backsheets: Correlation of Long‐Term Field Reliability with Accelerated Laboratory Testing (PREDICTS2 UL): $1.3M

Generalizable Mechanistic Understanding of Module‐level Light‐, Moisture‐ and Thermal‐Induced Instabilities in CIGS

(PREDICTS2 UIUC): $1.4M

Coupled Thermo‐Mechanical and Photo‐Chemical Degradation Mechanisms ‐ CPV Technologies (PREDICTS, Stanford): $0.6M

Unified Numerical Solver for Device Meta‐stabilities in

CdTe Thin‐Film PV (PREDICTS, ASU): $0.7M

PV Risk Reduction through Quantifying In‐Field Energy: $4.5M

PV Lifetime Project: $3M

Best Practices for Installation, O&M of PV and Storage Systems: $1.8M

Personnel Certifications for the Design, Installation and Maintenance of PV Systems (STEP, NABCEP): $1.1M


DuraMat Consortium Call for Proposals is Open: $30M for New, Durable Module Materials and Form Factors

Source of Figure: NREL

22

http://energy.gov/eere/sunshot/downloads/call-proposals-duramat-consortium

• Goal: dramatically accelerate the development of new module materials that enable significant reductions in LCOE

• Consortium led by a National Laboratory

• Proposals must be led by a National Lab


• Will we eventually need to account for disposal costs?• Are there unique challenges to recycling PV modules? • Can we design for recyclability?

Recycling: Part of the Lifecycle

23

Installation Cost + Annual O&M Costs

n


N

Depreciation

n

1+ Discount Rate nx(Tax Rate) Residual Value


N

Initial kWh/kW

1+ Discount Rate nx(1- System Degradation Rate)n

n=1

N

Recycling?


INTERESTED IN JOINING SUNSHOT?

Take on the SunShot grand challenge to make solar energy cost‐competitive with traditional energy sources by 2020.

Join our team. Design national R&D strategies across:

PV

CSP

Systems Integration

Soft Costs

Tech to Market

Technical and support positions available. EMAIL [email protected] for more information.

Search “solar energy technology manager” on USAJOBS

energy.gov/sunshot

energy.gov/sunshot

Becca Jones‐Albertus, Ph.DRebecca.Jones‐[email protected]

SunShot Initiative, Solar Energy Technologies Office

Thank You!

2 sun shot perspective-pathways to reducing pv lcoe

Technology

Transcript of 2 sun shot perspective-pathways to reducing pv lcoe