2. Modelling Workstream ExternalWorkshop 2ndofMay FINAL · Aquaculture workshop 2 May 2019 31...
Transcript of 2. Modelling Workstream ExternalWorkshop 2ndofMay FINAL · Aquaculture workshop 2 May 2019 31...
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Aquaculture workshop2 May 2019
Aquaculture Modelling
Alan Hills & Andrew Berkeley1
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Aquaculture workshop2 May 2019
Presentation Structure• Review Some Key Concepts
• Proposed New Modelling Workflow – What’s New?
• Introduce Screening Modelling
• Update on Depomod
• Marine Modelling/Bath Treatment Modelling
• Application Modelling Requirements
• Summary of Key Points
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Key Concept – Mixing Zone
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100 m RadiusMixing Zone ForMarine Outfalls
Chronic ImpactsAllowed Within
Mixing Zone
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Key Concept – Mixing Zone - Aquaculture
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100 m FromFarm Cage
Edge
Farm Cage
OverlappingAreas
Applies toSeabed
Ecology & InFeed
Chemicals
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Key Concept – Mixing Zone - Aquaculture
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EquivalentAreas
DEPOMOD
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Key Concept – Wider Impacts
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Mixing zone
MarineModelling
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Key Concept – Marine Modelling
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CreateMesh
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Key Concept – Marine Modelling
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RunModel
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Proposed Modelling Workflow: What’s New (1)Present Approach New Approach
Minimal Pre-Application Discussion. Structured Pre-Application Discussion.
No Initial Screening of Impacts. Initial Screening Modelling To InformRisk Discussion.
No Agreed Method For AddressingRisks – Rely On Standard Method ForAll.
Agreed “Method Statement” To AddressRisks – Flexible and Risk Proportionate.
15 Days Of Current Meter Data – NotAlways Checked At Pre-App.
90 Days of Current Meter Data CheckedAt Pre-App - Required.
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Proposed Modelling Workflow: What’s New (2)Present Approach New Approach
Local Impact Modelling With Old Model. Local Impact Modelling With New Model.
Simple Assessment OfSpatial/Cumulative Impact AndInteractions.
Marine Modelling To InformSpatial/Cumulative Impact AndInteractions.
Bath Treatment Modelling With OldSimplified Tools.
Bath Treatment Modelling with MarineModel.
Some Modelling/Data Issues OftenIdentified At Application Stage =Potential Delays.
Modelling/Data Issues Identified At Pre-App Stage.
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Screening Modelling – Coverage – 2D Models
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Screening Modelling – Coverage – 2D Models
Pentland FirthOrkney Waters
Shetland (InDevelopment)
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Screening Modelling – Coverage – 2D Models
East CoastLewis & Harris
WiderLochLinnheSystem
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Screening Modelling – Coverage – 2D Models
Firth ofClyde
SouthernHebrides
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Screening Modelling – Method – 2D Models• Indicative One Month Run Using Average:
• Tide• Wind• River Flow
• Particle Modelling (Sediment, In-Feeds).
• Dissolved Modelling (Bath, Nutrients).
• Can Include Inputs From MultipleSources.
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Screening Modelling – Output – Current SpeedMeanCurrentSpeed(m/s)
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Screening Modelling – Output – Particle Modelling
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Screening Modelling – Advantages• Consistent Modelling Method.
• Informs Risk Discussion At An EarlyStage.
• Visualisation Of Potential Impacts Helpswith Discussions.
• Assists with Marine ModellingDevelopment.
• Method Can Be Improved and RefinedOver Time.
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Local scale (“mixing zone”) modelling -NewDepomod
Calculatemixing zonearea
Predicted impactarea(NewDepomod)
Actualimpactproduced
Actualimpactmonitored
Actual impactareaestimated
Model indicates whether impact arealikely to exceed mixing zone area
Measured areamust not exceedmixing zone area
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Why ellipses?• Need to produce area estimate from limited data – simplifying assumptions
required
• Dispersive processes acting equally in all directions expected to produce circularimpact
• In cases where bi-directional asymmetries occur this generalises to an ellipse
• Tidal currents described conceptually in terms of “tidal ellipses”
• Ellipse can be fitted to arbitrary numbers of sampling transects
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NewDepomod AutoDepomod
Mean bedspeed 25 cm/s
Mean bedspeed 7 cm/s
Max, 340 ug/kg
Max, 20 ug/kg
Max, 0.45ug/kg
Max, 0 ug/kg
Max, 40 ug/kg
Max, 2.8 ug/kg
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Modelled, 90,124 m2
Measured, 89,317 m2
• AutoDepomod used a single snapshot in time of deposition to identifyecological impacts
• This is not reliable given that deposition can vary on hourly timescales
• Most robust signal for predicting IQI impact area is based on a ve ra gedeposition rates through time
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Local scale (“mixing zone”) modelling -NewDepomod
• Improves on AutoDepomod: predicts impacts in high-energy locations,distributes material more realistically in lower-energy areas
• Good for impact sca le , sometimes with positional errors
• Performance can be anchored and validated with good seabed data – thisshould become common practice for existing sites given future monitoringrequirements
• New methodological guidance issued shortly
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Marine Modelling/Bath Treatment Modelling
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Marine Modelling/Bath Treatment Modelling
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Marine Modelling/Bath Treatment Modelling
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Marine Modelling/Bath Treatment Modelling
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Bath Treatment Modelling - Simple Approach
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Marine Modelling/Bath Treatment Modelling• Single Dye Releases Challenging To
Model.
• Models May Be Used To Determine TotalArea of Potential Exposure.
• Smaller Scale Dye Releases Likely To BeRequired To Check Marine Model.
• Be Mindful of Lead Time For Dye ReleasePermission from Marine Scotland (10 To12 Weeks).
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Modelling Requirements - Depomod• Depomod
• Driven By 90 Days Of Current Meter Data.• Default Risk Assessment Settings.• Can Be Compared Against Existing
Monitoring.• Modelling Checked At Pre-Application Stage.
• Key Outputs• Assess Likelihood of Mixing Zone
Compliance.• In-Feed Chemical Permit Limits.• Provides Baseline Survey Guide.
• Issue• Model performance issues in Complex Areas.
Technical Guidance andSubmission Guidance
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Modelling Requirements – Marine Modelling• Marine Modelling
• More Detailed Version of ScreeningModelling.
• Generally Required For All Applications.
• Exceptions Possible For Low RiskProposals.
• Complexity Appropriate To Risk.
• Key Outputs• Cumulative Impact Information.
• Impact on Features of Interest.
• Bath Chemical Permit Limits.
Technical Guidance andSubmission Guidance
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Summary Of Key Points – Modelling Process
ModellingProcess
ScreeningModelling WillImprove RiskDiscussion
More TechnicalWork At Pre-Application
Stage
Consistent WithApproach ToOther SEPA
Marine Permits
“MethodStatement” ForAgreeing Work
Should AddressAgreed Risks
Technical AndSubmission
Guidance WillBe Available
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Summary Of Key Points – Screening Modelling
ScreeningModelling
Coverage AndMethod Can Be
Developed
Takes Accountof Impacts
From MultipleSources
Visualisation ofImpacts
Outside MixingZone
Will ImproveAquaculture
DecisionMaking
Can InformBaselineSurvey
May Be UsefulFor Non-
AquacultureMarine Issues
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Summary Of Key Points - Depomod
Depomod
Model ImprovedAnd MoreFlexible
More RealisticGuide To
Mixing ZoneImpacts
Driven By 90Days Of Current
Meter Data
Can Be DrivenBy Marine
Model Output
Can InformBaselineSurvey
Performance InComplex Areas
Must BeTreated With
Caution
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Summary Of Key Points – Marine Modelling
MarineModelling
More DetailedVersion OfScreeningModelling
CumulativeImpact
Information
ImpactInformation On
FeaturesOutside theMixing Zone
GenerallyRequired For
All Sites
MultipleSubstancesModelled,
Including Baths
BetterVisualisation
andQuantification
of Impacts