Kunming, China 22-26 October 2018

1Department of Agrometeorology and Applied Informatics

2Department of Plant Breeding and Biotechnology

Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation

– State Research Institute

8 Czartoryskich Str., 24-100 Pulawy, Poland

tberbec@iung.pulawy.pl

1Tytus Berbec, 1Andrzej Doroszewski, 2Apoloniusz Berbec

Occurrence of unfavorable weather conditions (including drought) causes significant losses in yield crops. It is

estimated that by 2030, the negative impact of drought in crops will contribute to a 30% reduction in crop yields in

the whole world [McKeown et al., 2006].

In Poland, the Agricultural Drought Monitoring System (ADMS), developed by IUNG-PIB [Doroszewski et al. 2008,

2012]. The system provides information on potential losses caused by water scarcity. ADMS uses the climatic water

balance index (CWB) to monitor drought conditions in Poland. Agricultural drought occurs when threshold values of CWB are exceeded across the area of a municipality. The occurrence of agricultural drought is

recognized when at least about 20% reduction in yields in a municipality can be attributed to water shortage, in

relation to yields obtained with medium long-term weather conditions (critical thresholds are presented in Tables1-

3). Soil conditions also determine the occurrence of drought, soil and agricultural maps (1: 25,000) are used for this

purpose, with aggregation of soils into 4 categories [Mizak et al. 2011].

The aim of the work was to evaluate yield losses to the tobacco crop at the municipality level in drought affected

areas in Poland in the years 2009-2017 based on area under tobacco, yields and ADMS data.

From among the tobacco types in Poland, the greatest area is planted to flue-cured tobacco. Because of that, the

soils under tobacco are usually light, permeable and moderately rich in nutrients and, preferably, lightly acidic

(about 5.5-6.0 pH). The demand for water for tobacco depending on type, expected yield and weather pattern

during the growing season is from 300 to 650mm [Peng et al. 2015]. In tobacco production, two critical phases of

water demand can be identified. The first phase (leaf development) occurs immediately after planting in the field

in May, while the second phase in the intensive growth phase in July (elongation of the shoot and development of

the canopy) [CORESTA Guide No. 7].

The occurrence of agricultural drought was found in the years 2010, 2011, 2013, 2015 and 2017 [ADMS Reports].

Tobacco production was located mainly in the Lublin-Podkarpackie region (in the Lubelskie Voivodeship, 50.4% of

the national crop), Świętokrzyskie-Małopolskie (Małopolskie Voivodeship 10.5%, Świętokrzyskie 9.5%), and

Kujawsko-pomorskie (9.5%) (Fig. 1) , that is, in the areas where the greatest water shortage for tobacco in 2015

was recorded. The largest yield losses to drought for the analyzed period were found in 2015 (Fig. 4,5). The area

of cultivation was 13.4 thousand ha and the average yield was 20.3 dt/ha [GUS], that is, 3.7 dt/ha less than the

average for periods in which no drought was observed. Drought in 2015 covered 74.58% of all municipalities in

Poland [Doroszewski 2015, SMSR Report IUNG-PIB]. The occurrence of drought was also recorded in 2010 and 2011

(Fig. 3) in the period from 21 IV to 10 VIII in the voivodships located in the north-western and central part of the

country where tobacco production is of a relatively small significance. However, the drought resulted in

noticeable yield losses to tobacco in the province of Kujawsko-Pomorskie. The occurrence of substantial water

deficit) was also recorded in 2013 in the period from 11 May to 10 September in voivodships in the central part of

the country (Fig. 6), resulting in a significant reduction in yield (to 21 dt / ha). In 2017 drought occurred in a small

area and only in one reporting period (Fig. 6) and did not cause a significant reduction in the yield of tobacco.

Explanations: soil categories: I - very light soil, II - light soil, III - medium soil, IV - heavy soil. Source: own study based on data from SMSR (www.susza.iung.pulawy.pl).

Fig. 2. Yield, cultivation area and tobacco harvest in

Poland in 2009-2017 (red-yellow color means the year

in with was threat of drought)

ADMS reports provided the source material for estimating the threat of agricultural drought to the tobacco crop in Poland in 2009-2017. Tables 1,2,3 show the threshold values of CWB, the excess of which results in a 20% reduction

in yields. GUS statistical yearbooks were the source of information about yields, areas and harvest of crops.

Fig.5 The potencial range of agricultural drought in

tobacco cultivation in 2015 period 10 (1.VII - 31.VIII)

Fig.1 Location of Poland in Europe (left figure) and the

division of tobacco crops in Poland into communes of

gminas (according to the Regulation of the Ministry of

Agriculture and Rural Development)

Table 1,2,3. Critical thresholds CWB, determining the occurrence of drought in tobacco growing in ADMS

(in mm) valid until 2015 (table on the left) in 2016 (middle) and from 2017 (table on the right)

Fig.4 Climatic Water Balanced (CWB) in year

2015 period 10 (1.VII - 31.VIII)

Literature: CORESTA Guide No. 7 – A Scale for Coding Growth Stages in Tobacco Crops (https://www.coresta.org/sites/default/files/technical_documents/main/Guide-No07-Growth-Stages_Feb09_0.pdf); Doroszewski A., Kozyra J., Pudełko R., Stuczyński T., Jadczyszyn J., Koza P., Łopatka A. 2008. Monitoring suszy rolniczej w Polsce. Wiadomości Melioracyjne i Łąkarskie. Nr 1 s. 35–38. Doroszewski A. 2015. Susza w uprawie tytoniu w 2015 roku. Przegląd Tytoniowy, ISSN 1232-3837, rok XXII (LVII,LXXV),4: 2-4; McKeown A.W., Warland J., McDonald M.R., 2006. Long-term climate and weather patterns in relation to crop yield: a minireviev. Canadian Journal of Botany, 84(7) s. 1031-1037 Mizak K., Pudełko R., Kozyra J., Nieróbca A., Doroszewski A., Świtaj Ł., Łopatka A. 2011. Wyniki Monitoringu Suszy Rolniczej w Uprawach Pszenicy Ozimej w Polsce w Latach 2008-2010. Woda-Środowisko-Obszary Wiejskie t 11 z. 2 (34) s. 95-107; Peng S., Gao X., Yang S., Yang J., Zhang H. 2015. Water requirement pattern for tobacco and its response to water deficit in Guizhu Province. Water Science and Engineering 8(2): 96-101 Raporty SMSR 2006-2016 roku. System Monitoringu Suszy Rolniczej w Polsce prowadzony w Instytucie Uprawy Nawożenia i Gleboznawstwa –Państwowym Instytucie Badawczym w Puławach; Roczniki Statystyczne Rolnictwa, 2009-2016, GUS. Wyniki produkcji roślinnej. Warszawa.

Reduced

yield

20%

Climatic Water Balance value

May-June June-July July-August

soil categories

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

-190 -200 -230 -250 -200 -220 -240 -250 -200 -210 -240 -250

Reduced yield

20 %

Climatic Water Balance value

Six-figure period

3 (21.IV-

20.VI)

4 (1.V-

30.VI)

5 (11.V-

10.VII)

6 (21.V-

20.VII)

7 (1.VI-

31.VII)

8 (11.VI-

10.VIII)

9 (21.VI-

20.VIII)

10 (1.VII-

31.VIII)

11 (11.VII-

10.IX)

soil

categories

I -186 -188 -192 -196 -198 -200 -200 -200 -200

II -198 -200 -204 -208 -210 -212 -212 -212 -212

III -222 -224 -230 -234 -236 -238 -238 -238 -238

IV -238 -240 -246 -250 -252 -254 -254 -256 -254

Reduced yield

20 %

Climatic Water Balance value

Six-figure period

4

21IV

-

20VI

5

1V

-

30VI

6

11V

-

10VII

7

21V

-

20VII

8

1VI

-

31VII

9

11VI

-

10VIII

10

21VI

-

20VIII

11

1VII

-

31VIII

12

11VII

-

10IX

soil

categories

I -185 -188 -191 -194 -196 -198 -199 -200 -200

II -197 -200 -203 -206 -208 -210 -211 -212 -212

III -222 -225 -228 -231 -234 -236 -237 -238 -238

IV -235 -238 -241 -244 -247 -249 -250 -251 -251

The development of the poster was carried out as part of the Agricultural Drought Monitoring System in Poland

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Cultivation area in thous. of ha. Yield in dt/ha Harvest in thous. of tons

Fig. 3. The potencial range of agricultural drought in

tobacco growing areas and CBW in 2010 period 6 (top

maps) and 2011 period 3 (bottom maps)

Fig. 6. The potencial range of agricultural drought in

tobacco production and CBW values in 2013 period 10 (top

maps) and 2011 period 3 (bottom maps)

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