1H12 Results Presentation · 2020. 9. 23. · 1H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012 1 In spite of...
Transcript of 1H12 Results Presentation · 2020. 9. 23. · 1H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012 1 In spite of...
1H12 Results Presentation(Unaudited Figures)
30 July 2012
11H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
In spite of some favourable signs in the first months of the year, the first half of 2012 saw a deterioration in global confidence levels, with expectations of lower global activity growth and with rising risk aversion, mainly related to renewed concerns with the Euro Area debt crisis. Notwithstanding the initial favourable market reaction to the decisions from the European Summit at the end of June, risk aversion has continued to be fed by a contagion of the debt crisis to Spain and Italy and by the ongoing worsening conditions regarding Greece’s public finances.
GDP is expected to have contracted in 2Q 2012 in the Euro Area, as a result of restrictive fiscal policies, the ongoing deleveraging in the private sector, adverse financing conditions and deteriorated confidence levels. In the same period, GDP decelerated in the US, Brazil and China. In this context, in 2Q the main central banks pursued more expansionary monetary policies. In the beginning of July, the ECB cut the main refi rate to 0.75% and the overnight deposit rate to 0%. In 1H 2012, the 3-month Euribor fell 70 bps, to 0.65%.
In this adverse context, the Portuguese economy continued to show a very strong adjustment capacity. Economic activity contracted in 1H 2012, with the restrictive fiscal policy, the deleveraging in the private sector and the rising unemployment contributing to a strong retreat in domestic demand. But exports continued to show a very strong performance, even if decelerating. Merchandise exports rose 9% YoY (nominal growth) in January-May, with extra-EU exports rising close to 28%, as emerging markets in Africa, Latin America and Asia increased their weight in total exports. The coincident indicator of economic activity, which tracks GDP YoY growth, fell 2.5% in 1H 2012, supporting the forecast of an annual GDP contraction slightly below 3% in 2012, above initial expectations.
According to the IMF-EC-ECB, the implementation of the Economic and Financial Adjustment Programme remains “strong”, with “both the fiscal and external current account deficits narrowing significantly” and with “advances in the agreed structural reforms.” These developments have translated into improved market perception of Portugal, with 10 year Government bond yields falling in the secondary market to 10%-11%, from a January high of 17.4%.
Foreword: Macroeconomic highlights
21H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
BES financials reflect a strict financial discipline, key to address the current macro, market and regulatory challenges. The rights issue concluded in May is a key driver for stronger and more solid balance sheet
During this quarter (in May) BES concluded a Eur 1bn rights issue, which represents a landmark in the
capitalization of Portuguese banks, insofar as it permitted to comply, without resorting to any public funds, with
the minimum 9% threshold imposed by EBA for June 2012 as well as with the minimum 10% threshold defined
by the BoP for Portuguese banks for year-end 2012. In fact, Core Tier I (BoP) ratio reached 10.5% in June and
EBA Core Tier I was 9.9%, both comfortably above minimum required levels.
Also during this quarter, BES concluded the acquisition of 50% of BES Vida (life insurance), with the company being 100% consolidated as from May. The implementation of the necessary measures to turnaround the company already led to a positive contribution of Eur 17.4mn to the consolidated net income, partially compensating for the Eur 54.1mn one-off first consolidation adjustment.
Strong cash flow generation is key to compensate for the necessary increase in provisions as asset quality is deteriorating, as expected. In 2Q12, net operating income posted a 46% increase QoQ, backed by a significant banking income growth and cost containment, offsetting the significant increase of provisions.
In this challenging environment, 1H12 net profit stood at Eur 25.5mn, with credit provisions increasing 15% YoY. As a consequence of this prudent stance vis-à-vis risk management, the 1H12 provision charges of 138 bps led to a 4.76% coverage of gross loans, one of the highest levels in Iberia.
31H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
On the liquidity front, this was another challenging quarter as the worsening of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe (namely with the spreading of uncertainties to the Spanish economy) led to an increase in risk aversion from large corporate and institutional clients, which impacted corporate deposits in the quarter. In any case, with a 147% LTD ratio BES is on track to reach the 120% level recommended for 2014 as the deleverage process implemented back in the 2H2010 translated into a sharp decrease of this indicator in the past 2 years, driven by a Eur 6.7bn increase in deposits and a Eur 3.0 bn reduction of the loan portfolio.
Retail and private banking customer funds in Portugal continued to increase (+ 1.3% QoQ and +4.2%YoY), demonstrating the clients’ confidence in the banking system in general and in BES in particular, but with a shift to higher yielding products. In fact, the new rules established by the BoP on deposits pricing reduced the attractiveness of deposits. A wide offer of other products, including corporate bonds issued by some of the Portuguese major companies has been well accepted in the market, showing that the Portuguese savers are starting to shift their capital to less insured products, which allows to finance the economy in the medium term. Emigrants remittances to Portugal maintain an upward trend (+ 18% YoY), which is an additional sign of confidence in the Portuguese economy.
In light of the continued absence of wholesale markets, the pool of collaterals eligible for rediscount with central banks was increased further, with the ECB eligible assets pool providing a comfortable buffer to cope with future redemptions. Over 95% of the MLT debt maturing in 2012 was already repaid in the 1H12 (amounting to Eur 3.3bn).
All in all, this quarter financials continue to show a resilient performance, with management focused on addressing the macro, market and regulatory challenges with strategic independence and a strict financial discipline.
BES financials reflect a strict financial discipline, key to address the current macro, market and regulatory challenges. The rights issue concluded in May is a key driver for stronger and more solid balance sheet
41H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Table of contents
I. Solvency: strong capitalisation levels, with core capital comfortably above minimum
regulatory thresholds of EBA and BoP
II. 1H12 results: strong revenues allowing for reinforced provisioning levels
III. Asset Quality: Conservative and prudent risk management, with strong provision
reserve
IV. Funding & Liquidity: Increase in repoable assets leading to a comfortable buffer of
ECB eligible pool
V. Wrap up
Appendix 1: Detailed financial data
Appendix 2: Portuguese Economy: setting conditions for sustainable growth
Appendix 3: Macro forecasts Portugal, Spain, Angola and Brazil
51H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
1H12 solvency ratios were significantly reinforced with the Eur 1bn rights issue concluded in May. Core Tier I stands at 10.5%
8.2
9.2
10.5
9.2 9.4
10.4
Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12
Core Tier I
Notes: BIS II IRB corresponds to calculations based on IRB Foundation for credit risk and standardised approach for operational risk. Preliminary data as of Jun 12
Solvency Ratios (%) Risk weighted assets and Capital
782
6,185
143
6,067
6,967
79.1%
81,649
3,938
2,198
58,451
64,587
Mar 12
82,42180,23780,162Net Assets
77.4%81.5%82.7%Risk weight
436
6,666
139
6,708
7,102
3,938
1,825
58,054
63,817
Jun 12
799
6,171
194
6,020
6,970
3,938
1,742
59,705
65,385
Dec 11
187ow deductions AFS:
5,445… Core Tier I
6,127… Tier I
2,976… Trading book
3,973… Oper. Risk
7,644Total Capital
1,517
59,367
66,316
Jun 11
... Tier II and Other
… Banking book
RWA (BoP)
Eur bn
(BoP)
RWA’s decreased 3.8% YoY and CTI was reinforced in almost Eur 1.3bn YoY.
CTI ratio improved from 8.2% in Jun-11 to 10.5% in Jun-12.
CTI: +230 bp YoY
61H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Core tier I is now comfortably above both BoP and EBA’s thresholds. BES was able to comply with regulatory requirements without using public funds
Stated Core Tier I (BoP and EBA) – Jun 12
(%)
10.59.9
BoP EBA
% RWAs(30-Jun-2012)
Eur 63,817mn
EBA Jun/2012 minimum
requirement: 9%
BoP Dec/2012 minimum requirement: 10%
Quarterly evolution of Core Tier I - BoP
CTI Mar12
RightsIssue
BES Vida PensionFunds &
SIP
RWA's &Other
CTI Jun12
9.4%
1.5%
-0.2% -0.4%
10.5%0.2%(%)
Quarterly evolution of Core Tier I - EBA
CTI Mar12
RightsIssue
BES Vida PensionFunds &
SIP
SovereignBuffer
RWA's &Other
CTI Jun12
9.2%1.5%
-0.2%-0.4%
9.9%-0.2%
(%)
0.0%
Capital ratios as of Jun-12 already include the full regulatory impact of the Special Inspections Program (SIP), the partial transfer of Pension Funds to Social Security and EBA’s Sovereign buffer
71H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
BES European sovereign exposure increased to Eur 5.6bn (6.5% of net assets) in June 12, as a result of full consolidation of BES Vida. European sovereign exposure is concentrated in Portuguese debt with unrealised potential gains
Total 1Q12
Total
Germany
Austria
Netherlands
Spain
Italy
Greece
Ireland
Portugal
-
2
-
-
-
1
-
-
-
1
T-Bills
o.w. BES Vida
-
1 065
6
3
1
-
1
-
24
1 030
Bonds
o.w. BESTotal
--1
--3
--6
3 3081 1755 550
---
3 169
29
-
-
3 279
Bonds
232
1 618-
-1
-24
1 1735 483
T-Bills
European Sovereign Exposure
Up to 1M
12.0%
1M to 12M
11.0%
> 1Y77.0%
Maturity profile of the European Sovereign Exposure
(Eur mn)(%)
Breakdown of European Sovereign Exposure by portfolio
(%)
AFS86%
HTM3%Trading
5%
At the end of 1H12, BES had a potential gain in its consolidated European sovereign debt portfolio
Fair value6%
81H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Table of contents
I. Solvency: strong capitalisation levels, with core capital comfortably above minimum
regulatory thresholds of EBA and BoP
II. 1H12 results: strong revenues allowing for reinforced provisioning levels
III. Asset Quality: Conservative and prudent risk management, with strong provision
reserve
IV. Funding & Liquidity: Increase in repoable assets leading to a comfortable buffer of
ECB eligible pool
V. Wrap up
Appendix 1: Detailed financial data
Appendix 2: Portuguese Economy: setting conditions for sustainable growth
Appendix 3: Macro forecasts Portugal, Spain, Angola and Brazil
91H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
-1.10.0-1.10.0Insurance Premiums and Costs+
11.6
29.3
7.8
25.3
66.2
190.7
229.0
256.9
271.9
528.8
27.9
500.9
206.4
294.5
1Q12
13.9
35.4
6.2
90.1
139.5
235.6
271.1
375.1
287.6
661.6
102.9
558.7
245.6
313.1
2Q12
19.8%
20.8%
-20.5%
256.1%.
110.7%
23.5%
18.4%
46.0%
5.8%
25.1%
268.8%
11.5%
19.0%
6.3%
QoQ
-85.7%
15.7%
-7.9%
-
-15.5%
-9.2%
28.8%
-11.4%
0.4%
-6.3%
-59.7%
12.0%
12.2%
11.9%
YoY
178.6
56.0
15.2
8.8
243.4
469.7
388.3
713.1
557.4
1,270.5
324.8
945.7
402.9
542.8
1H11
500.1Net Op. Income ex-Mkts & Other
14.0o.w. Special tax on banks
25.5
64.8
115.4
205.7
426.3
632.0
559.5
1,190.4
130.8
1,059.6
452.0
607.6
1H12
Net Income=
-
-
=
-
=
-
=
+
=
+
+
Minority Interests
Taxes
Income Bef. Taxes and Minorities
Net Provisions
Net Operating Income
Operating Costs
Banking Income
Capital Markets & Other Results
Commercial Banking Income
Fees and Commissions
Net Interest Income
(EUR million)
In a very challenging environment, BES has been able to generate operating cash flow to reinforce provisions significantly. Core net operating income increased 28.8% YoY, driven by a 12% YoY growth in commercial banking income and flat operating costs
In December 2011 BES Group changed the accounting policy for booking actuarial differences determined in post employment benefit liabilities, which are now recognised under Other Comprehensive Income (OCI). As provided for in IAS 8, changes in accounting policies with material impact require the restatement of prior periods for comparison purposes. Accordingly, the Balance Sheet and Income Statement include the restated data for 2011
Note: 1H11 capital markets results were positively impacted by the sale of Bradesco
101H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
BES Vida full consolidation: P&L impact
(EUR mn)
25.5
BES Vida control acquisition
(1st consolidation)
Net Income 1H12 excluding one-off effect
of 1st consolidation of BES Vida
Net Income
1H12
54.1 79.6BES Vida: Eur 17.4mn
BES: Eur 62.2mn
BES Vida full consolidation had a total negative impact of Eur 36.7mn in 1H12 P&L:
i) Negative Eur 54.1mn due to control acquisition (1st consolidation)
ii) Positive Eur 17.4mn recurrent profit
BES Vida full consolidation: BS impact
(EUR mn)
-36.7…Net profit
17.4o.w. BES Vida recurrent profit
-16.3...Treasury stock
12.0…Minority interests
2,950
-54.1
98.0
57
2,893
2,950
…Reserves
Total Equity
o.w. BES Vida 1st consolidation adjustment
Total Liabilities
Total Liabilities & Equity
Total Assets
Net Income reached Eur 25.5mn in 1H12 or Eur 13.9mn in 2Q12. BES Vida was fully consolidated for the first time with a negative impact of Eur 54.1mn from 1st consolidation control acquisition. Without this effect, BES’ net income would have reached Eur 79.6mn in 1H12 or Eur 68mn in 2Q12
BES Vida full consolidation had an impact of Eur 2,950mn in Assets
111H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Commercial banking income increased 12% YoY, backed by both NII (+11.9% YoY) and Fees & Commissions (+12.2% YoY)
Consolidated NII Fees & Commissions
Commercial Banking Income
(Eur mn) (Eur mn)
(EUR mn)
1.87 1.74 1.71 1.791.55
3.95 4.33 4.58
-1.97 -1.96 -2.22 -2.62 -2.79
3.833.52
2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12
NIM
AssetsSpread
LiabilitiesSpread
1H12 includes Eur 27.4mn paid to Portuguese government due to GGB’s.
543608
295 313
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1H11 1H12 1Q12 2Q12
6.3%
11.9%
NIM: 24bps
403452
206 246
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1H11 1H12 1Q12 2Q12
12.2%
19.0%
9461060
501 559
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1H11 1H12 1Q12 2Q12
12.0%
11.5%
121H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Domestic operating costs
International operating costs
(Eur mn)
(EUR mn)
Operating costs under strict control (+0.4% YoY), with cost cutting measures already producing results in domestic operations. International costs increased mainly due to new branches opened in Venezuela and Luxembourg
Operating costs *
(Eur mn)Domestic
operating costs decreased 2.5% YoY
* Note: costs of 2011 restated due to changes in accounting policies
International operating costs
increased 7.4% YoY
557 560
272 288
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1H11 1H12 1Q12 2Q12
5.8%
0.4%
559.5
53.8
214.2
291.6
1H12
9.6%112.0102.2-0.5%215.4Admin.
QoQ2Q12
0.4%
2.9%
0.6%
YoY
557.4
52.3
289.7
1H11
5.7%287.5271.9Total
3.7%148.4143.1Staff
26.7
1Q12
27.1 1.7%Dep.
398 388
188 199
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1H11 1H12 1Q12 2Q12
-2.5%
5.8%
160 172
84 88
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1H11 1H12 1Q12 1Q12
7.4%
5.6%
131H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Strong growth of core operating income shows the resilient earnings power of the Bank, compensating high provisioning effort, with cost of risk up to 1.38% in 1H12
Core Net Operating Performance
(Core Net Operating Income: Commercial Bkg Income – Op. Costs; Eur mn)
388
500
180208
229271
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1H11 1H12 1Q11 2Q12 1Q12 2Q12
305
352
225
149
203
81
1H11 1H12 1Q11 2Q11 1Q12 2Q12
Credit Provisions
(Eur mn)
1.18Cost of Risk28.8%
18.4%
1.38 0.63 1.74 1.17 1.59
15.2%
36.2%
141H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Domestic business would have been break-even without the negative impact from the 1st consolidation of BES Vida. Net income from International operations reached Eur 78.2mn, with special focus on the Strategic Triangle (Africa, Brazil and Spain)
International Business
(Eur mn)
(1) Includes Africa, Brazil and Spain
Domestic Business
(Eur mn)
1H12 includes the negative impact of
the first consolidation of BES Vida (Eur
54.1mn). Without this effect,
domestic results would have been
Eur 1.4mn
Eur 54.1 mn
78.2
-0.8
3.9
11.4
63.7
10.5
10.2
43.0
1H12
-42.9Africa
-25%13.6Brazil
59%6.6Spain
-46%7.1US
-6.3%83.5Total
52%7.5UK
5.8
63.1
1H11
n.m
1%
YoY
Other
Strategic Triangle (1)
-52.7
95.1
1.4
1H11 1H12
1H11 includes profits form the sale of Bradesco stake and extraordinary dividends of PT (partly offset by higher
provisions)
Africa68%
Brazil16%
Spain16%
Africa includes Angola, C. Verde, Libya and Mozambique
Total: Eur 63.7mn
Strategic Triangle breakdown
151H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Investment Banking: Portuguese Privatisations and internationalisation
Banking Income: Eur 123.1 mn (+4.0%)
NII37% Fees &
Commissions49%
Capital Mkts14%
0%
2000%
4000%
6000%
8000%
10000%
12000%
1H11 1H12
118.3 123.1
Domestic
International
International contribution
Net Profit: Eur 14.8mn +181.3%)
79%
21%
67%
33%
0
5
10
15
20
1H11 1H12
5.3
14.8
Domestic Market: Important role on the privatisations
Advisory of REN on the acquisition of a 7.5% stake in Hidroeléctrica de CahoraBassa (Eur 38m), while REN and EDP’s privatisations were concluded.
Joint Lead Manager on the Public Bond Offerings of EDP (Eur 250 million) and ZON Multimedia (Eur 250 million).
Leadership in the Portuguese brokerage market, ending June with a 12.4% accumulated market share and also in M&A market by value and number of deals (Mergermarket).
International activity: Brazil remains active, India starts operation
In India, Espírito Santo Securities India Private Limited started the brokerage activity in May.
In Brazil, the Bank advised Meizler Biopharma shareholders on the sale of a 51% stake of the company to UCB and Aegea Saneamento on the auction promoted by the municipality of Piracicaba (São Paulo State) to award the construction, operation and maintenance of a sewage treatment system. The Bank acted as exclusive broker on the purchase of a 2.8% stake in Portugal Telecom by Oi S.A. (Eur 99.8mn) and as Bookrunner on the R$ 209 million debentures issue by OAS Engenharia.
In the UK, the Bank acted as Sole Bookrunner on the 22.9 million shares placement of Xchanging plc (£ 22.4m). The Bank reached the 3rd position on the Leading Pan-European Brokerage Firm for UK Small & Mid Caps ranking (ThomsonExtel Surveys 2012).
In Poland, the Bank advised Gebomsa Polska Sp. z.o.o. on the acquisition of a local competitor, Betopompa, and was Mandated Lead Arranger on the PLN 4.8m financing for this acquisition. The Bank ranked 12th in the Polish brokerage market, with a 2.9% market share in the 1H2012.
In Spain, the Bank ranked #3 in the Madrid Stock Exchange with a 6.7% market share in the 1H2012.
162% 45%
161H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Table of contents
I. Solvency: strong capitalisation levels, with core capital comfortably above minimum
regulatory thresholds of EBA and BoP
II. 1H12 results: strong revenues allowing for reinforced provisioning levels
III. Asset Quality: Conservative and prudent risk management, with strong provision
reserve
IV. Funding & Liquidity: Increase in repoable assets leading to a comfortable buffer of
ECB eligible pool
V. Wrap up
Appendix 1: Detailed financial data
Appendix 2: Portuguese Economy: setting conditions for sustainable growth
Appendix 3: Macro forecasts Portugal, Spain, Angola and Brazil
171H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
0.8
1.14
0.850.76
0.620.71 0.630.710.63
1.141.151.17
1.59
0.33
0.52
1.74
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
81
148 147 149
203
97
138104 96
8095 84 94
22540
66
0
50
100
150
200
250
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
Quarterly Credit ProvisionsCost of Risk
Eur 40 mnadditional
charge
(Eur mn)(%)
Economic conditions in Portugal still impose a strong provisioning effort, with operating cash flow being used to steadily reinforce provision reserve. Maintaining a prudent stance vis-à-vis asset quality, cost of risk was 1.59% in 2Q12 (1.38% in 1H12)
Eur 66 mnadditional
charge
1.47%, including additional LLC
2009Eur 540mn
2010Eur 352mn
2011Eur 601mn
2009107 bps
201067 bps
2011117 bps
(1)
(1) Includes Eur 42.7 mn of provisions resulting from the SIP. The difference vs the initial amount of Eur 125mn is explained by the fact that the remaining provision charges were made in accordance with BES Group’s usual criteria.
1.28%, including additional LLC
1H12138 bps
1H12Eur 352 mn
181H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Total provisions reserve is 4.76% of the loan portfolio (Eur 2.4bn), one of the highest levels in Iberia. Credit at risk totals 7.9% of the loan portfolio, with a 60% coverage by provisions on BS (excluding collaterals and guarantees)
BES On-BS Provisions Reserve
2 1672 271
2 435
1 983
1 777
1 552
1 148990
2007 2008 2009 2010 Jun-11 2011 Mar-12 Jun-12
Overdue and Credit at Risk ratios
(Eur mn) (%)
Provisions as % of Gross Loans
2.29% 2.38% 3.07% 3.38% 3.83%
Overdue loans
+ 90 days
7.91%
3.73%3.30%
Overdue loans
+ 30 days
Credit at Risk*
144%
Coverage (excluding collaterals and guarantees)
128% 60%
4.23%
(*) According to Instruction 23/2011 of Bank of Portugal. Credit at risk includes: a) total value of credit with capital or interest past due by 90 days or more; b) other restructured credit, where the principal or interest payments were past due by more than 90 days and have been capitalized or refinanced without full coverage by collaterals or the interest fallen due have not been fully paid by the debtor and c) credits of an insolvent or bankrupt debtors.
4.45%
+23%On BS provisions
reserve increased to 4.76%, one of the
highest levels in Iberia
4.76%
191H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Overdue loans ratios are consistently below Portuguese average, showing BES excels in risk management
1. 9% 1. 9%
1. 2%
1. 8%2 . 1%
4. 8%
5. 7%
1. 3 %1. 3 %1. 5%
2 . 1%
3 . 0%
3 . 7 %
3 . 5%3 . 2%
2 . 4%2 . 3 %
1. 8%2 . 1%
5. 3 %
4. 5%
2 . 2 %
3 . 2 %3 . 4%
1. 7%1. 6%
1. 9%2 . 0%
2 . 3 %2 . 2 %
2 . 2%2 . 1%
2 . 6%
3 . 6%
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
BES Overdue Loans Ratio* Evolution vsPortuguese System
Source: BES and BoP. May 2012* Overdue loans + 30 days
4.45%
0.86%
6.01%
8.5%
1.9%
10.7%Consumer
& Other
Mortgage
Corporate
System
BES
Overdue loans continue to increase, reflecting the
deterioration of macroeconomic conditions
Total Overdue Loans/Gross Loans SystemTotal Overdue Loans/Gross Loans BES
1Q12
System data as of May 2012; Source: BoP
2Q12
201H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Credit portfolio is mainly composed by Corporate loans (72.7% of total) and remains well diversified
Credit Portfolio as of June 2012 (Eur 51.2 bn Gross Loans)
Excludes securitised credit
Corporate72.7%
(Eur 37.2 bn)
Consumer & Other5.0% (Eur 2.6bn)
Mortgage22.3%
(Eur 11.4 bn)
1 Represents a composite of other sectors of the economy none representing more than 3% per se.
Services
Con.& Pub Works
Real Estate
Retail
Other Man.
T&C
Other Services1
Fin. Inst.
13.1%
10.1%
12.6%
6.3%
7.0%
6.9%
4.3%
12.5%
Services
Const. & Public Works
Real Estate
Whol. & Retail
Other Manuf.
T&C
Fin. Inst.
Other Sectors1
% of Total Credit Portfolio
211H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Credit Portfolio as of June 2012 (Eur 51.2bn Gross Loans)
Excludes securitised credit
Domestic77.4%
(Eur 39.6 bn)
International22.6%
(Eur 11.6 bn)
8.9%
6.5%
4.0%
1.3%
1.2%
0.7%
Angola
Spain
US
(Eur 4.6bn)
Brazil
Other
(Eur 3.3bn)
(Eur 2.1bn)
(Eur 0.6bn)
(Eur 0.6bn)
(Eur 0.3bn)
International loans account for 22.6% (Eur 11.6bn) of credit portfolio. Main exposures are Angola and Spain. UK portfolio has been reducing with the deleverage plan
UK
221H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Table of contents
I. Solvency: strong capitalisation levels, with core capital comfortably above minimum
regulatory thresholds of EBA and BoP
II. 1H12 results: strong revenues allowing for reinforced provisioning levels
III. Asset Quality: Conservative and prudent risk management, with strong provision
reserve
IV. Funding & Liquidity: Increase in repoable assets leading to a comfortable buffer of
ECB eligible pool
V. Wrap up
Appendix 1: Detailed financial data
Appendix 2: Portuguese Economy: setting conditions for sustainable growth
Appendix 3: Macro forecasts Portugal, Spain, Angola and Brazil
231H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Wholesale markets have been closed for Portuguese banks since 2Q10. As a result, BES implemented a deleverage plan since 2H10 that allowed it to redeem Eur 19.5bn of wholesale debt in the period, while ECB facilities were used in the amount of Eur 13.7bn
Evolution of ECB use and BES redemptions (*)
(Eur bn)
(*) Includes MLT and ST redemptions
13.7
8.7
3.9
-0.3
19.5
15.8
5.3
0.0
Use of ECB Redemptions
14.0
6.7
12.8
Increase in useof ECB
Redemptions
Mar-10 Dec 10 Jun 12
14.0
Increase in ECB use and BES redemptions (*) since March 2010
MLT
ST
19.5+19.5bn
Eur 5.8bn
Dec 11
+14.0bn
AA1
A-A2
BB-Ba3
BBBa2
S&PMoody’s
(-7 notches)(-8 notches)
The liquidity gap was covered internally through deleverage (increase of deposits, sale of
international loans an cash flow generation)
241H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
54% 43% 35% 29%
6%
36%46% 55% 52%
10% 11% 10% 12%
-8% -11%
2%
-16%
2009 2010 2011 Jun-12
MLT Funds Bancassurance Deposits Equity Treasury Gap (net interbank deposits)
Weight of deposits in overall funding mix increased from 36% to 52% (+16 p.p.) between 2009 and Jun-12, while MLT Funds decreased from 54% to 29% (-25p.p.)
Evolution of Funding mix
(%)
Share of customer funds in funding mix increased significantly
Note: ECB included in Treasury Gap.
251H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
2.8
0.50.1
0
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12
Over 95% of 2012 MLT maturities already repaid in 1H12. Remaining quarters represent undemanding cash requirements. 2013-2015 annual MLT refinancing needs are much lower than in 2011-2012
4.3
3.31.8
2.42.5
0.1
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Medium and Long Term Debt maturing in 2012 Medium and Long Term Debt maturity profile
(Eur bn)(EUR bn; Total Eur 3.4bn)
Of which: Eur 1. 5bn
Senior Guar. and Eur
1.2bn EMTN
3.4
already repaid
From the Eur 3.4bn to be redeemed in 2012, over 95%, or Eur 3.3bn, was already repaid
already repaid
2013-2015 MLT annual redemptions are much lower than in 2011-2012
Average: Eur 3.9bn
Average: Eur 2.2bn
261H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
ECB
Use
Dec.
11
1H12
MLT
Rede
mpt
ions
Fina
ncia
las
sets
BES
Vida
Depo
sits
ST L
ines
Oth
er
Righ
ts Is
sue
Debt
Issu
ance
ECB
Use
1H12
Use of ECB liquidity facilities increased to Eur 13.7bn during 1H12. Repoable assets continued to be significantly reinforced and provide a substantial liquidity buffer
BES use of ECB liquidity facilities (net) (EUR bn)
16.5 16.918.9
24.227.0
10.813.2
15.1
20.522.6
Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12
ECB Eligible Total
Total Repoable Assets1
(EUR bn)
8.7
3.31.4
1.4 0.1
-1.0-0.8
Outflows: 6.8
Inflows: 1.8
ECB: +11.2bnTotal: +9.8bn
+ Eur 5.0 bn
1. Pre-haircuts..Includes repo’ed assets.
0.4
< 1year: Eur 3.5bn
> 1year: Eur 10.2bn
13.70.2
271H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
198%
165% 163%155%
146% 147%135%
171%
141%137%130% 131% 130% 125% 122% 124%
117%119%
1H10 9M10 FY10 1Q11 1H11 9M11 FY11 1Q12 1H12 Target
Loans to DepositsRatio
Loans / On-BSCustomer Funds
*
Transformation Ratio
LTD ratio reached 147% in Jun-12. Despite the quarterly increase, LTD is 51 p.p. lower than 2 years ago and on track to reach the 120% recommended target. Loans to On-BS Customer funds ratio stands at 124%
120%
-51 p.p.
-27 p.p.
* Calculated according to BoP definition for Funding and Capital Plan.
281H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Net Loan Portfolio Evolution
(EUR bn; excludes securitised credit)
48.7 48.749.9
51.7 51.0 50.849.9 49.7 49.0
1H10 9M10 FY10 1Q11 1H11 9M11 FY11 1Q12 1H12
Gross loans decreased 1.0% YoY (Eur 0.5bn) to Eur 51.2bn. Despite the deleverage, BES continues to support exporting SME’s and domestic corporates
Gross loans: YoY growth
(EUR bn)
(Base 100 = Jun 10)
Evolution of credit components
Exporting SME’s: +12%
Domestic corporate segment: +2%
Jun10 Dec10 Dec11Jun11
International credit*: -29%
* International credit excludes Angola and Brazil
51.7 51.2 51.0 51.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jun-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12
-0.5bn-1.0% -3.0bn
-5.7%
-1.0bn-2.0%
Jun12
The Eur 0.2bn increase in 2Q12 gross
loans is mainly due to FX impacts
291H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Core deposits up 2.5% YoY (Eur 0.8bn) to Eur 32.8bn. On a quarterly basis, deposits decreased Eur 3.2bn driven mainly by institutional and corporate Clients
Total Deposits Evolution
(EUR bn)
Deposits – quarterly breakdown
(EUR bn)
26.1
29.9 30.8 30.532.0
33.9 34.236.0
32.8
1H10 9M10 FY10 1Q11 1H11 9M11 FY11 1Q12 1H12
+6.7bn+25.6%
+0.8bn+2.5%
-3.2bn-8.9%
DepositsMar-12
Corporates Individuals DepositsJun-12
36.0
-2.8 -0.4
32.8
Mainly explained by Large Corporates & Institutional, due to i) increase in risk aversion related to the
Euro Zone debt crisis and ii) companies deleverage
Mainly explained by Clients moving their savings to
higher yielding investment products, following new
rules regarding pricing of deposits applied by BoPfrom April 2012 onwards
301H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
+520+660
-140
DepositsOther
Customer Funds
Total Customer
Funds
In Domestic activity, Retail & Private Banking savings continue to show an upward trend, with customer funds increasing Eur 570mn in the quarter. Decrease in deposits compensated by stronger increase in higher yielding products
Domestic Customer Funds (quarterly evolution) (*)
(EUR bn)
Deposits - average rate evolution
(%)
Retail
Private Banking
+50+430
-380
In Portugal, Retail & Private Banking deposits decreased c.Eur 0.4bn, with Clients moving their savings to higher
yielding investment products, following new rules regarding pricing of deposits applied by BoP from April 2012 onwards
(*) Change in average monthly balance
3.49 3.44
3.07
4Q11 1Q12 2Q12
110100
136
Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar
Stock of Household Deposits(December 2010: Index 100)
BES
Market
2010 2011 2012
311H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Table of contents
I. Solvency: strong capitalisation levels, with core capital comfortably above minimum
regulatory thresholds of EBA and BoP
II. 1H12 results: strong revenues allowing for reinforced provisioning levels
III. Asset Quality: Conservative and prudent risk management, with strong provision
reserve
IV. Funding & Liquidity: Increase in repoable assets leading to a comfortable buffer of
ECB eligible pool
V. Wrap up
Appendix 1: Detailed financial data
Appendix 2: Portuguese Economy: setting conditions for sustainable growth
Appendix 3: Macro forecasts Portugal, Spain, Angola and Brazil
321H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Proactively addressing challenges: strong capital ratios, conservative risk management with operating cash-flow used to increase provision reserve and high level of repoable assets to provide a comfortable liquidity buffer
Solvency
Rights issue concluded in May strengthened BES’ capitalisation level, based solely on market solutions and internal capital generation. No use of public funds allows the Bank to maintain its strategic independence. Core Tier I of 10.5% in Jun 12 (9.9% applying EBA methodology) is comfortably above minimum regulatory thresholds. Public debt portfolio concentrated in Portugal and with unrealised capital gains.
Conservative risk management with provision reserve being a cushion to overcome expected asset quality deterioration. In Jun 12, on-Balance Sheet provisions reached Eur 2.4bn or 4.76% of gross loans.Despite an expected increase, overdue loan ratios are consistently below the Portuguese average (despite higher weight of corporate loans).
Operating income ex-markets increased 29% YoY, driven by a 12% YoY growth in commercial banking income and flat operating costs.Strong cash-flow generation key to compensate high level of provision charges.
Risk Management
1H12 Results
Successful implementation of a deleveraging programme since 2H10. LTD decreased 51 p.p. in the last 2 years to 147% in Jun 12, on track to reach the recommended target of 120% by Y-end 2014.ECB eligible pool of repoable assets increased to Eur 22.6bn, leading to a comfortable liquidity buffer.
Funding & Liquidity
Portuguese economy continues to show a strong adjustment capacity, recognised by the IMF / ECB / EC. Market perception is also improving, translating into declining bond yields.Strong exports growth coupled with contraction of domestic demand is positively impacting external deficit, expected to turn positive already in 2013.Increase of emigrants remittances to Portugal (+18% YoY) and appetite for higher risk savings products mirror an increased confidence in the Portuguese economy.
Portuguese Economy
331H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Table of contents
I. Solvency: strong capitalisation levels, with core capital comfortably above minimum
regulatory thresholds of EBA and BoP
II. 1H12 results: strong revenues allowing for reinforced provisioning levels
III. Asset Quality: Conservative and prudent risk management, with strong provision
reserve
IV. Funding & Liquidity: Increase in repoable assets leading to a comfortable buffer of
ECB eligible pool
V. Wrap up
Appendix 1: Detailed financial data
Appendix 2: Portuguese Economy: setting conditions for sustainable growth
Appendix 3: Macro forecasts Portugal, Spain, Angola and Brazil
341H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Accumulated income statement: domestic and international
--0.00.0--1.10.0+ Insurance premiums and costs
Domestic
-
51.3%
83.0%
5.9%
-
12.5%
11.1%
34.5%
30.7%
32.7%
19.6%
34.4%
38.9%
31.0%
% Total. Consolidated
-
48.7%
17.0%
94.1%
100.0%
87.5%
88.9%
65.5%
69.3%
67.3%
80.4%
65.6%
61.1%
69.0%
% Total Consolidated
2.6pp47.2%44.6%-12.0pp55.8%67.7%Cost to Income ex-Markets
16.3%44.137.915.1%307.9267.5… credit
-0.0-0.1-66.7%18.856.5… securities
-43.7%3.35.9-48.8%52.2102.0… other
International
0.8pp
-6.3%
12.1%
2.8%
8.4%
4.0%
7.4%
5.5%
-
1.5%
67.7%
-25.8%
YoY
43.3%
83.5
82.5
166.0
43.7
209.7
159.9
369.6
10.9
358.7
105.0
253.7
1H11
44.1%
78.2
92.5
170.7
47.4
218.1
171.7
389.8
25.6
364.2
176.0
188.2
1H12
4.3pp
-
-
-54.8%
-11.0%
-17.8%
-2.5%
-11.1%
-66.5%
18.5%
-7.4%
45.1%
YoY
48.4%44.1%Cost to Income
-52.795.1= Net Income
87.7
35.0
378.9
413.9
387.8
800.6
105.2
695.4
276.0
419.4
1H12
17.7
77.4
426.0
503.4
397.5
900.9
313.9
587.0
297.9
289.1
1H11
- Taxes & Minorities
= Inc. pre-Tax&Min.
- Net Provisions
= Net Oper. Income
- Operating Costs
= Banking Income
+ Capital Mkts & Other
= Commercial Bkg Inc.
+ Fees & Commissions
+ Net Interest Income
(EUR million)
(*) 2011 quarterly staff costs reflect the change of the accounting policy related to emplyees long term benefits, accounted in Other Comprehensive Income as from 2011
351H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Quarterly consolidated income statement*
1.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0+ Insurance Premiums and Costs
54.3%
51.4%
11.6
29.3
7.8
-23.5
41.0
25.3
66.2
190.7
229.2
256.9
-
271.9
528.8
-11.4
39.2
500.9
206.4
294.5
1Q12
51.5%
43.5%
13.9
35.4
6.2
80.1
3.8
90.1
139.5
235.6
271.1
375.1
-
287.6
661.6
-86.4
189.3
558.7
245.6
313.1
2Q12
-11.411.311.311.611.611.611.6Note: Amort. actuarial diff. eliminated
59.8%
-.
-280.6
17.4
7.6
-85.4
7.7
-70.1
-333.4
187.6
200.8
-145.7
298.9
153.2
-236.1
-110.5
499.7
192.4
307.3
4Q11
18.3%30.1%253.8208.4179.9169.3282.7208.0187.9NOI ex-Mkts & Other
57.0%
37.1%
106.4
16.9
7.6
-79.4
50.7
-21.0
102.3
366.5
468.8
276.4
745.2
15.7
244.7
484.8
213.3
271.5
2Q11
19.8%
20.8%
-18.4%
-
-90.7%
-
110.7%
23.5%
46.0%
5.8%
25.1%
-
-
11.5%
19.0%
6.3%
QoQ
-18.4%7.67.60000… Special Tax
-92.5%0.413.3-0.518.86.734.8… Income Tax
-22.29.0-10.314.3-15.3-4.6… Deferred Taxes
51.8%
51.8%
-6.8
39.2
30.2
62.6
191.0
253.6
272.8
526.4
-33.9
33.7
526.6
195.2
331.4
3Q11
64.2%
46.5%
116.6
61.7
-10.8
167.5
182.8
350.3
303.9
654.2
52.9
128.1
473.2
201.8
271.4
4Q10
61.0%
53.5%
72.3
39.1
29.9
141.3
103.1
244.3
281.0
525.3
-35.9
100.4
460.9
189.6
271.3
1Q11
49.7%
45.9%
134.8
49.0
33.1
216.9
112.0
328.9
279.0
607.9
0.2
46.2
561.7
215.5
346.2
3Q10
57.6%57.8%Cost to Income ex-Markets
48.2%46.4%Cost to Income
-86.9%174.7130.7= Net Income
14.1
-8.6
180.2
123.7
303.9
282.5
586.4
-1.9
97.8
490.5
197.8
292.7
2Q10
21.7
30.2
182.6
115.1
297.7
257.6
555.3
12.7
97.1
445.5
191.8
253.7
1Q10
-
-
36.4%
-35.7%
-20.0%
4.1%
-11.2%
-
-
15.2%
15.1%
15.3%
YoY
- Minorities
- Taxes
= Income Bef. Tax & Min.
+ Other Results
- Net Provisions
= Net Operating Income
- Operating Costs (restated)
= Banking Income
+ Capital Markets Results
= Commercial Bkg Income
+ Fees and Commissions
+ Net Interest Income
(EUR million)
(*) The change in the accounting policy related to emplyees long term benefits, now accounted in Other ComprehensiveIncome, led to a restatement of the staff costs line in 2010 and in the first three quarters of 2011
361H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Quarterly domestic income statement*
-1.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0+ Insurance Premiums and Costs
55.4%
52.1%
-11.3
4.7
14.3
7.7
165.3
151.7
173.0
188.5
361.4
21.3
340.1
142.8
197.3
1Q12
56.1%
45.4%
-41.5
-2.4
71.1
27.3
213.6
155.9
240.9
199.3
439.2
83.9
355.3
133.2
222.1
2Q12
64.1%
-
-311.3
-2.4
-90.9
-404.6
178.1
115.0
-226.5
205.1
-20.8
-340.7
320.0
151.5
168.4
4Q11
2.8%19.5%148.0130.559.045.3172.4116.991.0NOI ex-Mkts & Other
56.5%
57.7%
-54.2
2.4
18.0
-33.8
174.7
140.9
190.8
331.7
-7.1
338.8
150.6
188.2
3Q11
0.7pp
-6.7pp
-
-
-
-
29.2%
39.2%
5.8%
21.5%
-
4.5%
-6.7%
12.6%
QoQ
77.2%
62.3%
16.2
-0.2
14.2
30.2
90.7
120.9
200.0
320.9
61.8
259.0
134.2
124.8
1Q11
83.1%
49.0%
79.2
25.1
-18.4
85.9
145.5
231.4
222.1
453.5
186.0
267.4
149.8
117.7
4Q10
60.2%
34.1%
79.1
-1.1
-30.5
47.5
335.1
382.6
197.6
580.2
252.1
328.1
163.7
164.4
2Q11
61.9%
56.0%
64.7
0.4
6.7
71.8
90.7
162.5
207.2
369.7
34.8
334.9
163.1
171.8
3Q10
-4.1pp64.9%68.2%Cost to Income ex-Markets
+11.3pp51.1%50.7%Cost to Income
-126.782.6= Net Income
-1.5
-20.5
104.7
101.4
206.1
215.8
421.9
89.2
332.7
147.8
184.9
2Q10
-1.8
16.3
97.1
92.8
189.9
195.1
385.0
98.9
286.1
149.3
136.8
1Q10
-
-
-42.5%
-36.3%
-37.0%
0.9%
-24.3%
-66.7%.
8.3%
-18.6%
35.1%
YoY
- Minorities
- Taxes
= Income Bef. Taxes and Min.
- Net Provisions
= Net Operating Income
- Operating Costs (restated)
= Banking Income
+ Capital Mkts & Other Results
= Commercial Bkg Income
+ Fees and Commissions
+ Net Interest Income
(EUR million)
(*) The change in the accounting policy related to emplyees long term benefits, now accounted in Other ComprehensiveIncome, led to a restatement of the staff costs line in 2010 and in the first three quarters of 2011
371H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Quarterly international income statement
51.9%
49.9%
22.9
24.5
10.9
58.5
25.4
77.4
83.8
83.5
167.4
6.5
160.9
63.6
97.2
1Q12
52.4%
54.1%
29.8
19.8
20.8
70.3
9.6
85.5
79.9
94.3
173.9
-5.9
179.8
40.9
138.9
4Q11
43.4%
39.6%
55.3
37.9
19.1
112.2
22.1
115.2
134.2
88.2
222.4
19.1
203.3
112.3
90.9
2Q12
48.8%48.1%105.977.8120.9123.9155.091.196.9NOI ex-Mkts & Other
43.6%
42.1%
47.3
36.9
12.2
96.4
16.4
112.8
82.0
194.8
7.0
187.9
44.6
143.2
3Q11
-8.5pp
-10.3pp
141.5%
55.1%
75.2%
91.9%
14.9%
59.9%
5.6%
32.9%
-
26.4%
76.1%
-6.5%
QoQ
40.1%
39.6%
56.0
39.3
15.7
111.0
12.4
123.4
81.0
204.4
2.5
201.9
55.3
146.6
1Q11
39.8%
40.9%
37.6
36.6
7.4
81.7
37.2
118.9
81.8
200.7
-5.0
205.8
52.0
153.7
4Q10
50.3%
47.8%
27.3
18.0
9.4
54.9
31.3
86.2
78.9
165.1
8.4
156.7
49.6
107.1
2Q11
42.3%
40.5%
48.0
15.6
12.0
75.4
22.3
97.8
66.7
164.5
6.7
157.8
50.0
107.8
2Q10
-6.9bp31.6%39.2%Cost to Income ex-Markets
102.6%70.148.1= Net Income
-8.2pp30.1%36.7%Cost to Income
48.6
26.4
145.1
21.3
166.4
71.8
238.2
11.4
226.8
52.4
174.4
3Q10
23.5
13.9
85.5
22.3
107.8
62.5
170.3
10.9
159.4
42.5
116.9
1Q10
111.1%
103.2%
104.4%
-29.7%
55.8%
11.8%
34.8%
127.4%
29.8%
126.6%
-15.0%
YoY
- Minorities
- Taxes
= Income Bef. Taxes & Min.
- Net Provisions
= Net Operating Income
- Operating Costs
= Banking Income
+ Capital Mkts & Other Res.
= Commercial Bkg Income
+ Fees and Commissions
+ Net Interest Income
(EUR million)
381H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Strategic triangle income statement: Africa, Brazil and Spain
53.0%
6.6
1.0
7.6
30.2
37.8
42.6
80.4
7.7
72.7
25.1
47.6
1H11
Spain
52.9%
10.5
1.4
11.9
26.0
37.9
42.5
80.5
11.8
68.6
24.6
44.0
1H12
-
59%
37
56%
-14%
-
-
-
54%
-6%
-2%
-8%
YoY
Strategic TriangleBrazilAfrica*
24.3%
42.8
73.7
116.5
11.6
128.1
41.2
169.3
5.5
163.8
18.4
145.4
1H11
26.0%
43.0
84.9
127.8
18.7
146.5
51.4
197.9
16.7
181.3
100.3
80.9
1H12
1.7pp
-
15%
10%
61%
14%
25%
17%
-
11%
-
-44%
YoY
35.8%
63.7
96.2
159.9
45.1
205.0
114.3
319.4
17.4
302.0
142.1
159.8
1H12
8.3pp
-25%
-12%
-19%
-87%
-27%
2.5%
-15%
-
11%
-22%
41%
YoY
41.5%
13.6
11.3
24.9
3.1
28.0
19.9
47.9
1.2
46.7
22.0
24.7
1H11
1pp
1%
12%
7%
-
6%
10%
7%
21%
7%
117%
-27%
YoY
49.8%
10.2
9.9
20.2
0.4
20.6
20.4
41.0
-11.1
52.1
17.2
34.9
1H12
34.8%Cost to Income
63.0= Net Income
86.0
149.0
44.9
193.9
103.7
297.6
14.4
283.2
65.5
217.7
1H11
- Taxes & Min.
= Income Bef. Tax & Min.
- Net Provisions
= Net Op. Income
- Operating Costs
= Banking Income
+ Markets & Other
= Com. Bkg Income
+ Fees and Com.
+ Net Interest Income
(EUR million)
* Comprising Angola, Cape Verde, Mozambique and Libya
391H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Angola: Quarterly income statement
734.2
4,061.9
6,778.5
30.0%
12.5
32.6
45.1
7.0
52.0
22.4
74.4
8.8
65.6
20.8
44.8
1Q12
844.6
4,558.3
7,625.3
20.3%
27.7
48.1
75.8
12.4
88.2
22.5
110.7
3.4
107.3
73.6
33.7
2Q12
556.1
3,221.2
5,992.8
22.3%
41.7
72.9
114.6
9.8
124.4
35.7
160.1
3.6
156.5
12.5
144.1
1H11
4,558.3
7,625.3
24.2%
40.2
80.6
120.8
19.4
140.2
44.9
185.1
12.2
172.9
94.4
78.5
1H12
41%
27%
1.9pp
-3%
11%
5%
97%
13%
26%
16%
-
11%
-
-45%
YoY
721.3
3,946.3
6,867.0
25.7%
21.0
36.6
57.6
10.7
68.3
23.6
91.9
-1.1
93.0
5.9
87.1
4Q11
653.6
3,579.5
6,880.8
19.4%
29.0
50.3
79.3
7.4
86.7
20.8
107.5
9.4
98.0
5.8
92.3
3Q11
15.0%
12%
12%
-9.7pp
122%
48%
68%
78%
70%
1%
49%
-61%
64%
-
-25%
QoQ
51.9%556.1526.9485.7419.0369.0303.1Equity
3,029.4
6,210.1
19.5%
27.1
47.3
74.4
4.7
79.2
19.2
98.3
5.3
93.0
6.2
86.8
1Q11
3,221.2
5,992.8
26.7%
14.6
25.6
40.2
5.1
45.3
16.5
61.8
-1.8
63.6
6.3
57.3
2Q11
2,823.6
5,923.9
18.6%
26.3
46.6
72.9
14.2
87.1
20.0
107.1
8.8
98.3
6.0
92.3
4Q10
2,443.1
5,520.8
35.2%
10.8
18.6
29.5
3.0
32.4
17.6
50.0
3.9
46.1
7.5
38.6
2Q10 (EUR million)
2,553.9
5,211.6
15.7%
35.8
63.1
98.9
3.8
102.7
19.2
121.9
-0.5
122.4
6.3
116.1
3Q10
1,966.9
4,775.5
22.8%
18.0
30.4
48.4
2.3
50.7
14.9
65.6
11.2
54.4
5.8
48.7
1Q10
27%Total Assets
41%Total Credit (Gross)
-6.4ppCost to Income
69%= Commercial Bkg Income
90%= Net Income
88%
89%
144%
95%
37%
79%
-
-
-41%
YoY
- Taxes & Minority Interests
= Income Bef. Taxes & Min.
- Net Provisions
= Net Operating Income
- Operating Costs
= Banking Income
+ Capital Mkts & Other
+ Fees and Commissions
+ Net Interest Income
401H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Brazil: Quarterly income statement
2,425.7
42.0%
7.0
5.7
12.7
0.6
13.3
9.7
23.0
-1.9
24.9
10.0
14.9
1Q12
2,645.7
58.0%
1.8
8.2
10.1
-1.5
8.5
11.8
20.4
2.7
17.7
3.2
14.4
4Q11
2,711.4
41.5%
13.6
11.3
24.9
3.1
28.1
19.9
47.9
1.2
46.8
22.0
24.7
1H11
2,711.6
49.8%
10.2
9.9
20.2
0.4
20.6
20.4
41.0
-11.1
52.1
17.2
34.9
1H12
2,711.6
59.7%
3.2
4.2
7.5
-0.2
7.2
10.7
17.9
-9.2
27.2
7.2
20.0
2Q12
2,502.1
49.7%
5.0
4.4
9.4
0.0
9.4
9.3
18.7
-1.8
20.5
6.9
13.6
3Q11
11.8%
17.7pp
-54-
-25%
-41%
-
-46%
11%
-22%
-
9%
-28%
34%
QoQ
2,755.7
42.7%
5.7
5.6
11.3
1.5
12.8
9.6
22.4
-1.8
24.2
10.1
14.1
1Q11
--2,711.42,672.22,301.52,340.51,962.4Assets
40.4%
8.0
5.6
13.6
1.6
15.2
10.3
25.5
3.0
22.6
11.9
10.7
2Q11
8.3pp
-25%
-12%
-19%
-87%
-27%
3%
-15%
-.
11%
-22%
41%
YoY
55.8%
6.1
1.8
7.9
1.2
9.1
10.2
19.2
-3.2
22.4
8.5
14.0
4Q10
40.2%
7.3
6.0
13.3
-0.1
13.2
8.9
22.1
0.2
21.9
7.9
14.0
2Q10(EUR million)
28.0%
15.7
7.8
23.4
1.4
24.8
9.6
34.5
7.8
26.7
13.9
12.8
3Q10
51.6%
3.1
2.3
5.4
2.6
8.0
8.5
16.5
-2.8
19.3
6.8
12.5
1Q10
19.3ppCost to Income
21%= Commercial Bkg Income
-60%= Net Income
-25%
-45%
-
-52%
4%
-30%
-
-40%
88%
YoY
- Taxes & Minority Interests
= Income Bef. Taxes & Min.
- Net Provisions
= Net Operating Income
- Operating Costs
= Banking Income
+ Capital Markets & Other
+ Fees and Commissions
+ Net Interest Income
411H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Spain: Quarterly income statement
5,139.2
94 bp
3,371.5
60.7%
4.7
0.1
4.8
9.1
13.9
21.4
35.3
0.8
34.6
12.7
21.9
1Q12
5,302.5
115 bp
3,495.1
60.1%
5.0
-1.4
3.5
11.1
14.6
21.9
36.5
0.8
35.7
14.0
21.7
4Q11
4,792.0
161bp
3,690.5
52.9%
6.6
1.0
7.6
30.2
37.9
42.6
80.5
7.7
72.8
25.1
47.6
1H11
5,013.0
bp
3,347.2
52.9%
10.5
1.4
11.9
26.0
37.9
42.5
80.5
11.8
68.6
24.6
44.0
1H12
5,013.0
183 bp
3,347.2
46.8%
5.9
1.2
7.1
16.9
24.0
21.1
45.1
11.1
34.1
12.0
22.1
2Q12
4,874.2
161 bp
3,564.8
64.5%
-1.7
-1.0
-2.7
14.4
11.6
21.1
32.7
-0.1
32.8
12.3
20.5
3Q11
-2%
89 bp
-1%
-13.9pp
26%
-
50%
85%
73%
-2%
28%
-
-2%
-5%
1%
QoQ
5,502.6
142 bp
3,736.4
51.9%
5.8
1.6
7.4
13.3
20.7
22.3
43.0
5.1
37.9
12.5
25.4
1Q11
4,792.0
178 bp
3,690.5
54.1%
0.8
-0.6
0.2
16.9
17.2
20.3
37.5
2.5
34.9
12.7
22.3
2Q11
5%
Bp
-9%
-
59%
37%
56%
-14%
-
-
-
55%
-6%
-2%
-8%
YoY
5,498.4
60 bp
4,093.7
64.7%
2.6
1.0
3.5
8.8
12.4
22.7
35.1
-0.5
35.6
11.1
24.5
4Q10
5,722.3
105 bp
4,197.7
55.0%
5.6
0.5
6.0
11.1
17.2
21.0
38.1
1.4
36.7
12.8
23.9
2Q10(EUR million)
5,527.0
103 bp
4,111.7
60.1%
2.1
1.8
3.9
10.7
14.6
22.0
36.7
2.2
34.5
12.8
21.7
3Q10
6,029.4
141 bp
4,156.1
56.9%
2.5
0.4
2.9
14.6
17.5
23.1
40.7
1.6
39.1
14.6
24.5
1Q10
-5 bpCost of Risk (bp)
-9%Credit (Gross)
-7.3ppCost to Income
-2%= Commercial Bkg Income
-= Net Income
5%
-
-
-
40%
4%
21%
-
-5%
-1%
YoY
Assets
- Taxes & Minority Interests
= Income Bef. Taxes & Min.
- Net Provisions
= Net Operating Income
- Operating Costs
= Banking Income
+ Capital Markets & Other
+ Fees and Commissions
+ Net Interest Income
421H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
UK: Quarterly income statement
2,122.5
88.9%
-2.1
-5.0
-7.2
8.9
1.7
13.5
15.2
-4.8
20.0
12.2
7.8
1Q12
1,930.5
-
-0.4
2.6
2.2
-14.7
-12.5
17.3
4.8
-8.7
13.6
5.7
7.8
4Q11
2,122.5
83.6%
7.5
-3.8
3.7
3.3
7.0
35.8
42.8
-6.5
49.4
26.9
22.5
1H11
2,051.3
75.1%
11.4
-3.3
8.1
1.2
9.3
28.3
37.7
2.1
35.6
20.8
14.8
1H12
2,051.3
66.0%
13.5
1.7
15.3
-7.6
7.6
14.8
22.5
6.9
15.6
8.6
7.0.
2Q12
2,079.1
93.5%
11.5
-4.0
7.5
-6.2
1.3
18.7
20.0
-2.6
22.6
13.0
9.6
3Q11
-3.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
10%
48%
-
-22%
-30%
-10%
QoQ
2,349.2
76.2%
10.2
-0.2
10.0
-4.3
5.7
18.3
24.0
-7.2
31.1
18.4
12.8
1Q11
2,122.5
92.9%
-2.7
-3.6
-6.3
7.6
1.3
17.5
18.9
0.6
18.2
8.5
9.7
2Q11
-3.4%
-8.5pp
52%
-
119%
-63%
33%
-21%.
-12%
-.
28%
-23%
-34%%
YoY
2,699.1
84.9%
-2.5
-6.7
-9.1
11.5
2.3
13.1
15.4
-10.8
26.2
13.3
12.9
4Q10
2,986.9
14.0%
20.9
2.2
23.1
3.6
26.7
4.4
31.1
0.8
30.3
11.3
19.0
2Q10(EUR million)
2,814.4
16.5%
20.5
1.9
22.4
-0.2
22.2
4.4
26.7
-0.3
26.9
6.5
20.5
1Q10
2,979.7
22.0%
8.3
2.9
11.2
6.1
17.3
4.9
22.2
1.2
20.9
5.7
15.2
3Q10
-3.4%Credit (Gross)
-Cost to Income
-15%= Commercial Bkg Income
-= Net Income
-
-
-
-
-15%
19%
-
1%
-28%
YoY
- Taxes & Minority Interests
= Income Bef. Taxes & Min.
- Net Provisions
= Net Operating Income
- Operating Costs
= Banking Income
+ Capital Markets & Other
+ Fees and Commissions
+ Net Interest Income
431H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Quarterly Net Interest Income(N
IM in
bp;
Qua
rterly
Fig
ures
)
254
293
346
271
271
272
331
307
295
313
258
253
269
306
315
335
300
250
179171174187
155156152
190161
141176 169
167188193 171199
141
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
0
50
100
150
200
NII
NIM45
4
455
507
546
562
540
437
397
401
380
375
423
406
395
4.294.524.22
3.923.553.553.32.983.08
3.583.38 3.25
3.02 3.03
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
Credit NII (LHS, Eur mn) Credit Margin (RHS, %)
-47
-36
-39
-41
-52
-57
-66
-110
-136
-129
-146
-173
-206
-203
-2.38-2.39-2.0-1.78-1.64-1.78
-1.45
-0.97-0.88-0.83-0.66-0.61-0.59-0.74
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
Deposits NII (LHS, Eur mn) Deposits Margin (RHS, %)
Credit Margin Deposit Margin
Quarterly Net Interest Income & NIM Euribor 3M (quarterly average)(%)
0.66 0.69 0.87 1.02 1.091.41 1.56 1.50
1.040.70
4.484.86 4.98
4.21
2.01
1.310.87 0.72
0
1
2
3
4
5
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
75
95
115
135
155
175
195
441H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Quarterly fees & commissions
(1) Includes trade finance and letters of credit(2) Includes Brokerage(3) Includes discretionary management
Note: Changes calculated based on figures in thousand euros.
206.4
36.2
1.8
19.1
10.0
19.9
18.4
17.3
15.9
19.4
29.1
19.3
1Q12
192.1
26.0
2.2
2.7
11.1
15.9
18.2
35.5
12.0
18.6
27.9
22.1
4Q11
402.9
32.9
3.9
21.9
19.7
48.7
52.2
62.5
36.8
33.8
51.5
39.0
1H11
452.0
123.8
3.4
27.5
20.4
38.5
37.4
41.5
24.9
43.5
51.8
39.2
1H12
12%
-
-11%
26%
4%
-21%
-28%
-34%
-32%
29%
1%
1%
YoY
245.6
87.6
1.6
8.4
10.4
18.6
19.0
24.1
9.1
24.1
22.7
19.9
2Q12
195.4
16.2
2.2
10.3
10.2
21.2
19.5
27.4
10.8
32.9
24.9
20.0
3Q11
19%
-
-9%
-56%
4%
-7%
3%
39%
-43%
24%
-22%
3%
QoQ
189.6
16.8
1.9
11.7
9.7
23.7
29.6
25.6
15.0
12.3
23.8
19.4
1Q11
213.3
16.1
2.0
10.2
10.0
25.0
22.6
36.9
21.9
21.4
27.7
19.6
2Q11
201.8
17.8
2.1
12.9
10.8
26.1
14.8
28.4
15.6
15.4
35.3
22.4
4Q10
197.8
21.3
1.9
17.0
9.8
24.7
12.1
23.6
17.2
16.3
32.6
21.2
2Q10
191.8
20.6
2.2
13.0
8.9
25.2
15.6
18.1
13.9
27.6
27.1
19.6
1Q10
215.5
17.8
2.2
13.5
10.5
25.9
8.4
22.1
22.8
35.0
35.8
21.6
3Q10
15%
-
-17%
-18%
5%
-26%
-16%
-35%
-59%
13%
-18%
2%
YoY
Trade Finance & Exp. related (1)
Corporate & Project Finance
Other
Bancassurance
Factoring
Guarantees
Total Fees & Commissions
Cards
Asset Management (3)
Securities related fees (2)
Commissions on Loans
Account Management Fees
(EUR million)
451H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Quarterly capital markets results and VAR
37.3
1.9
39.2
36.7
-78.4
-41.7
-0.5
23.3
58.1
80.9
1Q12
-122.1
11.6
-110.5
25.6
-88.8
-63.3
-9.1
19.0
-36.5
-47.2
4Q11
172.5
16.9
189.4
63.9
-113.8
-50.0
30.8
-13.2
221.9
239.5
2Q12
288.6
56.4
345.0
141.0
145.9
286.9
-7.9
22.7
43.3
58.1
1H11
28.6
5.3
33.9
1.2
-131.5
-130.3
18.2
99.6
46.4
164.2
3Q11
188.8
55.8
244.6
136.7
100.3
237.0
-12.2
14.3
5.5
7.6
2Q11
209.8
18.8
228.6
100.6
-192.4
-91.8
30.3
10.1
280.0
320.4
1H12
99.8
0.6
100.4
4.3
45.6
49.9
4.3
8.4
37.8
50.5
1Q11
88.7
39.4
128.1
116.9
144.9
261.8
-8.0
-147.7
22.0
-133.7
4Q10
41.2
4.8
46.0
7.5
-19.6
-12.1
22.9
44.7
-9.5
58.1
3Q10
81.8
16.0
97.8
65.7
32.7
98.4
28.7
-32.3
3.0
-0.6
2Q10
80.7
16.4
97.1
3.2
45.2
48.4
16.0
18.3
14.4
48.7
1Q10
Capital Markets net of Provisions for securities
… Interest rate
… Credit
… FX & Other
Provisions for Securities
Capital market results
… Income from securities
… Trading
Equity
Interest Rate, Credit & FX
(EUR million)
461H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
64
36
3
2415
88
28 3525
51 50 54 53 55
1935
26
51
84
13
46
80 82
44
66 68 73
196
3955
72
155
-14
16
48
124108
97 98
46
128
100
245
34 39
189
-1-4
49
27
2
84
109
109
1Q99
2Q99
3Q99
4Q99
1Q00
2Q00
3Q00
4Q00
1Q01
2Q01
3Q01
4Q01
1Q02
2Q02
3Q02
4Q02
1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
4Q03
1Q04
2Q04
3Q04
4Q04
1Q05
2Q05
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
2Quarterly capital markets results
Quarterly history of capital markets results since 1999
(EUR mn)
Excludes the one-offimpact of Eur 107mn related to the partial
transfer of the pension fundto the Social Security
471H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Quarterly equity accounted earnings and other results
-11.4
-10.4
-14.8
3.6
-0.2
3.4
1Q12
-236.1
-21.0
-57.5
4.7
-183.3
-178.6
4Q11
-33.9
-23.0
-24.5
3.1
-12.6
-9.5
3Q11
15.7
-7.2
6.9
9.0
-0.2
8.8
2Q11
-35.9
-38.6
-40.0
1.2
2.9
4.1
1Q11
-86.4
-14.6
-90.3
0.8
3.0
3.8
2Q12
0.2
1.9
-16.5
11.4
5.3
8.4
3Q10
52.9
35.4
44.9
4.8
3.2
8.0
4Q10
-2.6-0.6… Results from sale other assets
1.73.8… Other
-14.14.1Other Results, ow
12.7
4.8
8.6
1Q10
-1.9
2.2
12.2
2Q10
Equity Accounted Earnings and Other Results (Quarterly)
Total Equity Accounted and Other Results
… BES Vida
Equity Accounted Earnings
(EUR million)
-10.4
-14.8
-0.2
3.4
3M12
-89.9
-115.1
-193.2
-175.2
FY11
-68.8
-57.5
-9.9
3.4
9M11
-105.1-33.1-40.018.4-26.5-10.04.1Other Results, ow
-33.1
2.7
12.9
6M11
-40.0
2.9
4.1
3M11
-25.0
2.8
7.2
6M12
-26.5
12.3
29.2
9M10
-10.0
7.0
20.8
6M10
4.1
4.8
8.6
3M10
18.4
15.5
37.2
FY10
Equity Accounted Earnings and Other results (Accumulated)
… Results from sale of other assets
… BES Vida
Equity Accounted Earnings, ow
(EUR million)
481H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Quarterly other results: Reconciliation between IFRS P&L and Presentation
-4.4
-7.8
32.3
10.1
30.2
1Q12
-13.8
-7.6
41.5
6.4
3.9
4Q11
-1.4
-7.6
192.1
7.7
190.7
3Q11
14.1
-7.6
111.4
9.3
127.2
2Q11
-1.4
-7.6
36.0
9.0
36.0
1Q11
-6.2--------… Special Tax on Banks
9.5
-29.1
6.2
-13.4
4Q10
-10.0
-7.6
12.6
-5.1
3Q10
-11.4
-8.1
8.2
-11.2
2Q10
-75.74.6-2.2-24.1-11.7-7.2… Other
-16.7
14.2
-4.8
4Q09
0.8
10.7
16.1
1Q10
13.3
9.1
-1.7
3Q09
10.2
5.3
3.8
2Q09
96.5
9.2
98.5
1Q09
Quarterly
27.9… Capital Markets
7.9… Fees
-46.0Other Results (IFRS), ow
2Q12(EUR million)
-4.4
-7.8
32.3
10.1
30.2
3M12
-25.1
-30.5
381.0
32.4
357.8
FY11
11.3
-22.9
339.5
26.0
353.9
9M11
12.7
-15.2
147.4
18.3
163.2
6M11
-1.4
-7.6
36.0
9.0
36.0
3M11
-14.0--------… Special Tax Banks
-7.3
-44.0
37.7
-13.6
FY10
-16.8
-14.9
31.5
-0.2
9M10
-6.8
-7.3
18.9
4.9
6M10
-80.14.6-45.2-43.0-18.9-7.2… Other
0.8
10.7
16.1
3M10
103.3
37.8
95.8
FY09
120.0
23.6
100.6
9M09
106.7
14.5
102.3
6M09
96.5
9.2
98.5
3M09
Accumulated
60.2… Capital Markets
18.0… Fees
-15.8Other Results (IFRS), ow
6M12(EUR million)
491H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Breakdown of operating costs*
271.9
26.6
102.2
23.6
4.8
114.7
143.1
1Q12
298.9
29.1
120.3
20.3
2.9
126.2
149.5
4Q11
557.4
52.3
215.4
48.9
13.0
227.9
289.7
1H11
559.5
53.8
214.2
48.3
9.5
233.7
291.5
1H12
0.4%
2.9%
-0.5%
-1.2%
-26.9%
2.5%
0.6%
YoY
272.8
26.5
98.1
23.9
6.8
117.5
148.2
3Q11
5.7%
1.7%
9.6%
4.7%
-2.6%
3.8%
3.7%
QoQ
287.5
27.1
112.0
24.7
4.7
119.0
148.4
2Q12
280.9
26.1
107.5
24.6
6.8
116.0
147.4
1Q11
276.5
26.2
107.9
24.3
6.2
111.9
142.4
2Q11
303.9
24.3
117.2
20.9
13.1
128.5
162.4
4Q10
282.6
26.8
113.3
17.2
9.0
116.3
142.4
2Q10
257.5
23.7
100.6
16.5
8.7
108.1
133.2
1Q10
1.6%17.3…LT service benefits & Other
-24.2%13.5…Pension Benefits (restated)
279.1
25.3
109.9
113.0
143.8
3Q10
4.0%
3.8%
3.8%
6.3%
4.2%
YoY
…Remunerations
Admin costs
Total Operating Costs
Depreciation
Staff costs
Quarterly Operating Costs(EUR million)
(*) The change in the accounting policy related to employees long term benefits, now accounted in Other Comprehensive Income, led to a
restatement of the staff costs line in 2010 and the first three quarters of 2011
501H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Breakdown of quarterly operating costs: domestic* and international
83.5
6.8
28.3
1.7
0.8
45.8
48.4
188.4
19.8
73.9
21.9
4.0
68.8
94.7
1Q12
93.8
8.0
31.1
1.8
1.1
51.9
54.7
205.1
21.1
89.1
18.5
1.9
74.4
94.8
4Q11
159.9
12.0
58.3
4.4
1.7
83.5
89.6
397.5
40.3
157.1
44.5
11.1
144.4
200.1
1H11
171.7
14.6
58.2
3.3
1.7
93.8
98.9
387.8
39.2
156.0
45.0
7.8
139.8
192.6
1H12
7.4%
21.7%
-0.2%
-25.0%
-
12.3%
10.4%
-2.4%
-2.7%
-0.7%
1.1%
-29.7%
-3.2%
-3.7%
YoY
5.6%
14.7%
5.7%
-23.8%
12.5%
%
4.3%
5.8%
-2.0%
11.1%
5.5%
-5.0%
3.2%
3.4%
QoQ
88.1
7.7
29.9
1.6
0.9
48.0
50.5
199.4
19.4
82.1
23.1
3.8
71.0
97.9
2Q12
82.0
6.2
27.8
1.3
0.8
45.9
48.0
190.8
20.2
70.4
22.7
6.0
71.6
100.2
3Q11
81.0
5.8
28.9
2.2
0.9
43.2
46.3
199.9
20.3
78.6
22.4
5.8
72.8
101.1
1Q11
78.9
6.2
29.3
2.2
0.8
40.3
43.3
197.6
20.0
78.6
22.1
5.3
71.6
99.1
2Q11
81.9
4.7
30.4
5.0
0.4
41.4
46.8
222.0
19.6
86.8
15.8
12.7
87.0
115.6
4Q10
71.8
6.4
25.2
1.9
1.1
37.2
40.2
207.3
18.9
84.7
15.5
12.4
75.7
103.6
3Q10
62.5
4.3
21.0
1.1
0.8
35.2
37.2
195.0
19.3
79.6
15.3
7.8
73.0
96.1
1Q10
-27.3%2.3… LT service benefits & Other
4.5%14.9…LT service benefits & Other
-28.3%8.0…Pension Benefits
%34.1…Remunerations
16.6%37.4Staff Costs
International
66.7
5.3
24.0
1.0
215.9
21.6
89.3
82.2
105.1
2Q10
11.8%
25.8%
2.0%
12.5%
0.9%
-3.0%
4.5%
-0.8%
-1.2%
YoY
…Remunerations
International Operating Costs
Admin costs
Depreciation
Admin costs
…Pension Benefits
Domestic Operating Costs
Depreciation
Staff costs
Domestic
(EUR million)
(*) The change in the accounting policy related to employees long term benefits, now accounted in Other Comprehensive Income, led to a restatement of the
staff costs line in 2010 and the first three quarters of 2011
511H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Quarterly provisions
25.4
165.3
190.7
39.8
1.9
82bp
22.5
126bp
126.4
117bp
149.0
1Q12
9.6
178.1
187.6
28.6
11.6
33bp
9.0
137bp
138.3
115bp
147.4
4Q11
-11.0%378.9425.829.2%-36.3%213.6174.7335.190.7145.590.7101.492.8… Domestic
8.5%47.443.7-12.9%-29.6%22.116.431.312.437.221.322.322.3… International
235.7
15.8
16.9
75bp
21.6
183bp
181.4
159bp
203.0
2Q12
366.5
86.1
55.7
104bp
27.2
191bp
197.4
174bp
224.6
2Q11
191.0
37.9
5.3
59bp
15.4
128bp
132.4
114bp
147.8
3Q11
-35.7%
-81.8%
-69.7%
-29bp
-21.0%
-8bp
-8.1%
-15bp
-9.6%
YoY
23.6%
-60.6%
-
-7bp
-4.4%
57bp
43.6%
42bp
36.3%
QoQ
426.3
55.5
18.8
76bp
44.1
155bp
307.9
138bp
352.0
1H12
103.0
21.6
0.6
40bp
10.7
68bp
70.1
63bp
80.9
1Q11
469.5
107.7
56.3
71bp
37.9
130bp
267.5
118bp
305.5
1H11
182.8
49.7
39.4
110 bp
30.8
61 bp
62.9
71 bp
93.7
4Q10
112.0
23.6
4.8
68 bp
19.5
62 bp
64.1
63 bp
83.6
3Q10
115.1
18.7
16.4
74bp
19.9
59bp
60.1
62bp
80.0
1Q10
123.7
13.2
16.0
78 bp
22.9
69 bp
71.6
71 bp
94.5
2Q10
5bpcost of risk (bp)
15.1%… Domestic
25bpcost of risk (bp)
16.4%… International
-66.6%…Securities
-48.5%…Other
20bpcost of risk (bp)
-9.2%
15.2%
YoY
…Credit
Total Provisions
(EUR million)
Note: Detailed credit provisions and asset quality data in following slides
521H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Quarterly taxes: domestic and international
25.3
7.8
-23.5
41.0
11.0
8.3
2.7
14.3
7.8
-31.8
38.3
1Q12
80.1-85.422.2-79.49.0-10.514.5-15.3-4.6Deferred taxes
International
4.21.8-7.67.27.5-3.817.03.88.7Income Tax
14.819.119.82.38.210.09.58.25.2Deferred taxes
19.020.912.29.515.77.326.611.913.9Total international taxes
-70.1
7.6
7.7
-91.0
7.6
-104.5
5.9
4Q11
3.80.450.813.2-1.718.76.734.7Income Tax
6.27.67.67.6----Banking sector special tax
90.1
71.1
6.2
65.3
-0.4
2Q12
-21.0
-30.5
7.6
-81.7
43.6
2Q11
29.9
14.2
7.6
0.8
5.7
1Q11
30.2
18.0
7.6
2.4
8.0
3Q11
-11.1
-18.4
-
-20.5
2.1
4Q10
33.3
6.7
-
5.0
1.7
3Q10
30.1
16.2
-
-9.8
26.0
1Q10
-Banking sector special tax
Consolidated
-8.6
-20.5
-23.5
2.9
2Q10
Deferred taxes
Total taxes
Total domestic taxes
Income Tax
Domestic
(EUR million)
531H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Quarterly balance sheet: assets
--3Reinsurance Technical Provisions
3.0%-20.8%3,7243,6143,0314,4674,7043,8864,0833,7193,7053,670Other assets
--9… Direct and Indirect Insurance Creditors
81,265
3,614
714
31
858
227
834
-
1,827
468
1,183
(2,271)
48,713
2,288
12,438
2,096
3,885
562
1,527
Mar 12
80,237
3,031
712
29
807
230
852
-
1,647
510
1,541
(2,167)
49,043
3,283
11,483
1,964
3,435
581
1,090
Dec 11
85,292
3,715
665
38
577
485
865
385
2,164
485
1,310
(2,435)
48,741
2,084
14,298
3,194
3,904
723
1,646
Jun 12
82,767
4,467
375
40
948
223
823
-
674
435
2,092
(2,101)
49,933
4,049
12,137
1,487
3,458
610
1,015
Sep 11
5.0%
2.8%
-6.8%
22.0%
-32.7%
113.9%
3.6%
-
18.5%
3.6%
10.8%
7.2%
0.1%
-8.9%
15.0%
52.4%
0.5%
28.8%
7.8%
QoQ
80,746
3,886
292
99
961
230
780
-
605
296
2,349
( 1,790)
49,862
3,765
10,777
1,525
3,398
671
1,252
Mar 11
80,162
4,704
377
108
961
221
798
-
637
329
2,252
(1,983)
49,718
3,439
10,925
1,063
3,007
538
1,085
Jun 11
83,655
4,083
283
99
962
234
809
-
575
447
2,459
(1,777)
50,829
4,245
11,775
1,424
3,942
558
931
Dec 10
82,137
3,719
220
29
868
153
792
-
636
524
2,606
(1,725)
51,032
2,596
11,642
1,618
4,300
555
847
Sep 10
84,874
3,705
237
25
852
153
746
-
486
533
2,757
(1,682)
51,674
3,570
10,115
1,611
5,966
501
1,943
Jun 10
6.4%
-21.0%
76.6%
-64.8%
-39.9%
119.5%
8.3%
-
-
47.3%
-41.8%
22.8%
-2.0%
-39.4%
30.9%
200.3%
29.8%
34.5%
51.7%
YoY
84,098Total Assets
3,670Other assets
191Deferred income tax assets
18Current income tax assets
872Investments in assoc. companies
135Intangible assets
712Other tangible assets
-Investment property
440Non current assets held for sale
486Hedging derivatives
2,664Held to maturity investments
(1,609)(Provisions)
49,898Loans and adv. to customers
6,635Loans and advances to banks
9,058Financial assets available for sale
2,653Financial assets FV through P&L
4,041Financial assets held for trading
509Deposits with banks
2,115Cash & deposits at central banks
Mar 10(Eur mn)
541H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Quarterly balance sheet: liabilities
--11---------… Direct and Indirect Insurance Creditors
-5.5%14.9%1,8871,9961,3211,9501,6421,6031,9351,2261,1971,219Other liabilities
--1,817---------Technical provisions
--1,844---------Investment Contracts
74,875
1,996
946
115
46
166
141
182
15,116
35,959
4,950
1,943
13,316
Mar 12
74,045
1,321
961
111
45
190
141
239
18,453
34,206
6,239
2,125
10,014
Dec 11
77,768
1,876
834
136
44
186
165
184
15,615
32,765
5,767
2,167
14,356
Jun 12
75,863
1,950
1,158
94
24
200
5
225
18,649
33,854
6,170
2,113
11,422
Sep 11
17.8%
-6.0%
-11.9%
17.5%
-2.7%
12.4%
17.4%
1.5%
3.3%
-8.9%
16.5%
11.5%
7.8%
QoQ
73,386
1,603
2,327
110
27
212
5
217
20,742
30,545
7,199
1,875
8521
Mar 11
73,175
1,642
1,578
79
25
207
5
230
19,907
31,972
5,961
1,895
9,673
Jun 11
76,179
1,935
2,292
116
25
215
5
229
24,110
30,819
6,381
2,088
7,965
Dec 10
74,874
1,226
2,311
94
84
192
43
214
25,643
29,923
6,215
2,275
6,654
Sep 10
76,978
1,219
2,306
70
126
172
26
215
33,062
26,522
7,302
1,736
4,222
Mar 10
7.7%
14.2%
-47.2%
70.7%
78.9%
-9.7%
-
-19.9%
-21.6%
2.5%
-3.3%
14.3%
48.4%
YoY
77,959Total Liabilities
1,197… Other liabilities
2,306Other subordinated loans
92Deferred income tax liabilities
97Current income tax liabilities
180Provisions
35Non current liabilities held for sale
241Hedging derivatives
29,451Debt securities
26,082Due to customers
7,112Deposits from banks
2,169Financial liabilities held for trading
8,996Amounts owed to central banks
Jun 10(Eur mn)
551H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Quarterly balance sheet: equity
6,389
609
12
1,330
(900)
199
(1)
29
1,082
4,030
5,769
Mar 12
6,192
588
(109)
1,447
(1,086)
212
(1)
30
1,082
4,030
5,713
Dec 11
7,525
663
25
1,340
(821)
193
(11)
29
1,067
5,040
6,837
Jun 12
6,904
634
138
1,337
(467)
409
(1)
269
1,085
3,500
6,132
Sep 11
17.8%
8.8%
120.3%
0.7%
-
-3.2%
-
-
-1.4%
25.1%
18.5%
QoQ
7,361
562
61
1,317
(33)
600
(1)
269
1,085
3,500
6,738
Mar 11
6,987
583
156
1,322
(383)
456
(1)
269
1,085
3,500
6,274
Jun 11
7,476
541
511
979
( 10)
600
-
270
1,085
3,500
6,474
Dec 10
7,263
412
405
993
292
600
(25)
-
1,085
3,500
6,446
Sep 10
7,120
315
119
1,198
326
600
(25)
-
1,086
3,500
6,686
Mar 10
6,915
390
282
1,023
60
600
(25)
-
1,085
3,500
6,243
Jun 10
7.7%
13.7%
-83.7%
1.3%
-
-57.7%
-
-
-1.7%
44.0%
9.4%
YoY
Total Equity
Minority interests
Net Profit for the period / year
Other reserves and retained earnings
Fair value reserve
Preference shares
Treasury stock
Other capital instruments
Share premium
Share capital
Shareholders' Equity
(Eur mn)
561H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Quarterly loan portfolio (including securitised)
20%
10,972
42,834
53,806
9,885
27,038
36,923
565
2,013
2,578
522
13,783
14,305
16,883
Mar 12
21%
10,846
43,241
54,087
9,725
27,160
36,885
586
2,130
2,715
535
13,951
14,486
17,202
Dec 11
21%
11,572
42,376
53,948
10,420
26,777
37,197
615
1,952
2,567
536
13,648
14,184
16,751
Jun 12
19%
10,534
44,431
54,965
9,718
28,159
37,877
334
2,228
2,562
483
14,044
14,527
17,089
Sep 11
5.5%
-1.1%
0.3%
5.4%
-1.0%
0.7%
8.9%
-3.1%
-0.4%
2.7%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.8%
QoQ
20%
10,686
44,011
54,697
9,878
27,441
37,319
335
2,348
2,683
473
14,222
14,695
17,378
Mar 11
19%
10,460
44,229
54,689
9,645
27,764
37,409
341
2,305
2,646
474
14,160
14,634
17,280
Jun 11
20%
11,187
44,527
55,713
10,349
27,734
38,083
354
2,468
2,822
483
14,325
14,808
17,630
Dec 10
20%
11,403
44,427
55,929
10,577
27,701
38,278
329
2,428
2,757
496
14,398
14,894
17,651
Sep 10
20%
10,810
44,054
54,864
9,972
27,164
37,136
333
2,461
2,794
504
14,429
14,933
17,728
Mar 10
21%
11,673
44,925
56,597
10,833
27,990
38,823
343
2,451
2,794
497
14,484
14,981
17,775
Jun 10
10.6%
-4.2%
-1.4%
8.0%
-3.6%
-0.6%
80.4%
-15.3%
-3.0%
13.1%
-3.6%
-3.1%
-3.1%
YoY
… International
… Domestic
Loan portfolio
… International
Int as % total
… ow Other
… Domestic
Corporate Lending
… International
… Domestic
… International
… Domestic
… ow Mortgages
Loans to Individuals
(EUR million)
(1) Considering the outstanding amounts of securitised credit. Securitised credit only includes domestic loans.
571H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Quarterly gross loan portfolio (excluding securitised)
21%
10,972
40,012
50,984
9,885
27,003
36,889
565
2,034
2,599
522
10,975
11,496
14,095
Mar 12
21%
10,846
40,365
51,211
9,725
27,160
36,885
586
2,130
2,716
535
11,075
11,610
14,326
Dec 11
23%
11,572
39,604
51,176
10,420
26,777
37,197
615
1,952
2,567
536
10,875
11,411
13,979
Jun 12
20%
10,534
41,499
52,033
9,717
28,159
37,876
334
2,228
2,562
483
11,112
11,595
14,157
Sep 11
5.5%
-1.0%
0.4%
5.4%
-0.8%
0.8%
8.9%
-4.0%
-1.2%
2.7%
-0.9%
-0.7%
-0.8%
QoQ
21%
10,686
40,966
51,652
9,878
27,441
37,319
335
2,348
2,683
473
11,177
11,650
14,333
Mar 11
20%
10,460
41,241
51,701
9,645
27,764
37,409
341
2,305
2,646
474
11,172
11,646
14,292
Jun 11
21%
11,187
41,420
52,606
10,349
27,734
38,083
354
2,468
2,822
483
11,218
11,701
14,523
Dec 10
22%
11,403
41,354
52,757
10,577
27,701
38,279
329
2,428
2,757
496
11,225
11,722
14,479
Sep 10
21%
10,810
40,697
51,507
9,972
27,164
37,137
333
2,461
2,794
504
11,072
11,576
14,371
Mar 10
22%
11,673
41,682
53,355
10,833
27,990
38,823
343
2,451
2,794
497
11,242
11,739
14,532
Jun 10
10.6%
-4.0%
-1.0%
8.0%
-3.6%
-0.6%
80.4%
-15.3%
-3.0%
13.1%
-2.7%
-2.0%
-2.2%
YoY
… International
… Domestic
Loan portfolio
… International
Int as % total
… ow Other
… Domestic
Corporate Lending
… International
… Domestic
… International
… Domestic
… ow Mortgages
Loans to Individuals
(EUR million)
581H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Quarterly asset quality indicators
75bp
184bp
159bp
4.76%
127.6%
4.45%
6.01%
0.86%
3.73%
144.0%
3.30%
Jun 12
82bp
126bp
117bp
4.45%
127.8%
4.18%
5.40%
0.83%
3.48%
150.3%
2.96%
Mar 12
33bp
137bp
115bp
4.23%
140.2%
3.56%
4.98%
0.84%
3.02%
154.5%
2.74%
Dec 11
59bp
128bp
114bp
4.04%
141.6%
3.33%
4.87%
0.85%
2.85%
155.0%
2.60%
Sep 11
104bp
191bp
174bp
3.83%
148.3%
3.00%
4.55%
0.82%
2.59%
163.0%
2.35%
Jun 11
40bp
68bp
63bp
3.47%
145.4%
2.27%
4.46%
0.84%
2.38%
159.4%
2.17%
Mar 11
68 bp
62 bp
63 bp
3.27%
157.8%
2.30%
4.14%
0.84%
2.07%
172.5%
1.90%
Sep 10
110 bp
61 bp
71 bp
3.38%
160.6%
2.36%
4.08%
0.80%
2.10%
173.0%
1.95%
Dec 10
74 bp
59 bp
62 bp
3.12%
160.7%
2.16%
3.59%
0.86%
1.94%
187.5%
1.67%
Mar 10
1.70%Overdue Loans >90 days / Gross Loans
184.9%Coverage of Overdue Loans > 90 days
2.09%Corporates (>30d)
3.64%Consumer (>30d)
0.82%Mortgage (>30d)
69 bp… Domestic
78 bp… International
71 bpQoQ Provision Charge
166.3%Coverage of Overdue Loans >30 days
3.15%Provisions for Credit / Total Gross Loans
1.90%Overdue Loans >30 days / Gross Loans
Jun 10
591H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
1.67% 1.70%1.90% 1.95%
2.17%2.35%
2.96%3.30%
2.60%2.74%
188% 185%
173% 173%
159%163%
155% 155%150%
144%
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q121.03%
0.23%
0.74%
0.37%
1.23%
0.88%
1.29%
0.91%
2.05%
1.26%
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12
Overdue loans ratios and coverage
Total Overdue Loans Ratio (+30d) & Coverage (%)
Net New Entries as % of Performing Loans
(quarterly annualised)Quarterly Write Offs (Eur mn)
Overdue Loans +90 days Ratio & Coverage (%)
22.8 20.0 14.1 34.8 30.0
1.94% 1.90% 2.07% 2.10% 2.38% 2.59%
3.48% 3.73%
3.02%2.85%
161%166%
158% 161%145% 148% 142% 140%
128% 128%
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12
5.0 16.4 50.5 21.8 24.2
601H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Quarterly asset quality indicators: Domestic and International
335.2
1,935.9
2,271.2
268.5
1,242.3
1,510.8
287.9
1,488.6
1,776.5
10,972
40,012
50,984
Mar 12
301.6
1,865.9
2,167.4
280.1
1,123.2
1,403.3
308.9
1,236.7
1,545.6
10,846
40,365
51,211
Dec 11
301.8
1,798.7
2,100.6
253.9
1,101.3
1,355.2
269.9
1,213.5
1,483.4
10,534.3
41,499.2
52,033.5
Sep 11
287.8
1,694.8
1,982.6
220.2
996.0
1,216.2
236.0
1,101.1
1,337.1
10,459.7
41,240.9
51,700.5
Jun 11
273.8
1,516.3
1,790.1
191.0
931.7
1,122.7
212.8
1018.7
1,231.5
10,685.8
40,966.3
51,652.1
Mar 11
352.3
2,082.4
2,434.7
283.4
1,407.5
1,690.8
326.0
1,582.0
1,908.0
11,572
39,604
51,176
Jun 12
256.0
1,469.2
1,725.3
167.9
833.1
1,000.1
192.5
900.9
1,093.4
11,402.7
41,354.3
52,757.0
Sep 10
1,494.71,421.91,367.1…Domestic
282.3259.6241.8… International
913837.4812.4…Domestic
193.3174.0189.0… International
1,777.0
176.7
850.4
1,027.1
1,106.7
11,186.5
41,419.6
52,606.1
Dec 10
41,682.340,697.3…Domestic
11,672.810,809.8… International
764.6719.0…Domestic
144.7139.0… International
1,608.9
858.0
1,001.3
51,509.2
Mar 10
53,355.1Gross Loans
1,011.4Total Overdue Loans (> 30 days)
1,681.5Total Credit Provisions (BS)
909.3Overdue Loans > 90 days
Jun 10(EUR million)
611H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Quarterly asset quality indicators: Domestic and International
116.5%
130.1%
127.8%
2.62%
3.72%
3.48%
124.8%
155.8%
150.3%
2.45%
3.10%
2.96%
Mar 12
97.6%
150.9%
140.2%
2.85%
3.06%
3.02%
107.7%
166.1%
154.5%
2.58%
2.78%
2.74%
Dec 11
111.8%
148.2%
141.6%
2.56%
2.92%
2.85%
118.9%
163.3%
155.0%
2.41%
2.65%
2.60%
Sep 11
121.9%
153.9%
148.3%
2.26%
2.67%
2.59%
130.7%
170.2%
163.0%
2.11%
2.41%
2.35%
Jun 11
128.6%
148.8%
145.4%
1.99%
2.49%
2.38%
143.3%
162.7%
159.4%
1.79%
2.27%
2.17%
Mar 11
146.0%
163.7%
160.6%
1.73%
2.21%
2.10%
159.5%
175.8%
173.0%
1.58%
2.05%
1.95%
Dec 10
133.0%
163.1%
157.8%
1.69%
2.18%
2.07%
152.5%
176.4%
172.5%
1.47%
2.01%
1.90%
Sep 10
131.6%170.4%168.3%…Domestic
108.1%149.2%127.9%… International
148.0%186.0%190.1%…Domestic
124.3%179.4%174.0%… International
127.6%
2.82%
3.99%
3.73%
144.0%
2.45%
3.55%
3.30%
Jun 12
1.83%1.77%…Domestic
1.24%1.29%… International
2.01%2.00%…Domestic
1.49%1.75%… International
160.7%
1.94%
187.5%
1.67%
Mar 10
1.70%Overdue Loans >90 days / Gross Loans
184.9%Coverage of Overdue Loans > 90 days
166.3%Coverage of Overdue Loans >30 days
1.90%Overdue Loans >30 days / Gross Loans
Jun 10
621H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Quarterly and accumulated credit provision charge & net new entries
21.8
205bp
205bp
82bp
126bp
117bp
22.6
126.4
149.0
82bp
126bp
117bp
22.6
126.4
149.0
1Q12
50.5
109bp
91bp
58bp
133bp
117bp
62.4
538.2
600.6
33bp
137bp
115bp
9.0
138.3
147.4
4Q11
16.4
113bp
129bp
68bp
128bp
116bp
53.5
399.7
453.2
59bp
128bp
114bp
15.4
132.4
147.8
3Q11
5.0
105bp
88bp
71bp
130bp
118bp
37.9
267.5
305.4
104bp
191bp
174bp
27.2
197.4
224.6
2Q11
30.0
123bp
123bp
40bp
68bp
63bp
10.7
70.1
80.9
40bp
68bp
63bp
10.7
70.1
80.9
1Q11
24.2
166bp
126bp
76bp
155bp
138bp
44.1
307.9
352.0
75bp
183bp
159bp
21.5
181.4
203.0
2Q12
14.1
66 bp
74 bp
73 bp
63 bp
65 bp
62.3
195.8
258.1
68 bp
62 bp
63 bp
19.5
64.1
83.6
3Q10
20.0
61 bp
23 bp
73 bp
63 bp
65 bp
42.8
131.7
174.5
78 bp
69 bp
71 bp
22.9
71.6
94.5
2Q10
59 bp103 bpNet new entries as % Performing Loans (accum.)
28.8
103 bp
74 bp
59 bp
62 bp
19.9
60.1
80.0
74 bp
59 bp
62 bp
19.9
60.1
80.0
1Q10
37 bpNet new entries as % Performing Loans (quarter)
258.7… Domestic
93.1… International
62 bp… Domestic
83 bp… International
61 bp… Domestic
110 bp… International
62.9… Domestic
30.8… International
34.8
67 bp
351.8
71 bp
93.7
4Q10
Quarterly Write Offs (Eur mn)
As % Loan Portfolio (bp)
P&L Credit Provisions Accumulated
As % Loan Portfolio (bp)
P&L Credit Provisions Quarter
(EUR million; % annualised)
631H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Quarterly customer funds
--3,661---------Life Insurance Products
24%
13,103
41,572
54,675
13,260
41,415
4,804
652
26,840
9,119
35,959
Mar 12
22%
11,905
42,479
54,383
13,714
40,670
5,820
644
25,633
8,573
34,206
Dec 11
30%
15,682
36,719
52,401
9,976
42,425
5,226
773
24,244
8,521
32,765
Jun 12
24%
13,430
42,057
55,487
14,788
40,699
5,273
1,573
25,124
8,730
33,854
Sep 11
19.7%
-11.7%
-3.7%
-24.8%
2.4%
8.8%
18.6%
-9.7%
-6.6%
-8.9%
QoQ
25%
14,281
41,732
56,013
17,715
38,298
5,747
2,006
22,401
8,145
30,545
Mar 11
25%
13,781
42,351
56,132
16,522
39,610
5,988
1,650
23,506
8,466
31,972
Jun 11
23%
12,841
43,147
55,988
17,094
38,894
6,326
1,749
22,143
8,676
30,819
Dec 10
28%
15,472
40,375
55,847
18,006
37,841
5,924
5,834
18,108
7,974
26,082
Jun 10
23%31%% total
18,865
41,728
60,594
18,985
41,609
6,460
8,626
19,469
7,053
26,522
Mar 10
12,965
43,969
56,934
17,763
39,171
5,596
3,653
21,994
7,929
29,923
Sep 10
0.6%… Sight
3.1%… Term
2.5%Deposits
-53.1%Certificates of Deposits
13.8%
-13.3%
-6.2%
-39.6%
7.1%
-12.7%
YoY
Total
… International
… Domestic
Off-BS Funds
On-BS Customer Funds
Debt Securities placed with Clients
(EUR million)
(1) The increase of Life Insurance Products reflects the full consolidation of BES Vida as from 2Q2012.
(1)
641H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Quarterly off-BS customer funds
3,127
10,133
13,260
552
1,746
2,298
3,292
229
1,580
1,809
92
1,052
1,144
2,254
2,463
4,717
Mar 12
3,128
10,586
13,714
561
1,684
2,245
3,478
222
1,933
2,155
93
1,110
1,203
2,252
2,381
4,633
Dec 11
3,030
6,946
9,976
525
1,755
2,280
89
218
1,554
1,772
98
1,013
1,111
2,189
2,535
4,724
Jun 12
3,895
12,627
16,522
804
2,349
3,153
4,315
239
2,448
2,687
80
1,249
1,329
2,772
2,267
5,038
Jun 11
-3.1%
-31.5%
-24.8%
-4.9%
0.5%
-0.8%
-
-5.0%
-1.6%
-2.1%
6.9%
-3.7%
-2.9%
-2.9%
2.9%
0.2%
QoQ
3,873
13,842
17,715
806
2,638
3,444
4,805
134
2,539
2,673
81
1,275
1,356
2,852
2,585
5,437
Mar 11
3,528
11,260
14,788
639
1,874
2,513
3,794
223
2,332
2,555
88
1,209
1,297
2,578
2,051
4,629
Sep 11
2,700
14,394
17,094
430
2,801
3,231
5,374
133
2,522
2,655
84
1,291
1,375
2,053
2,406
4,459
Dec 10
2,666
15,340
18,006
450
3,053
3,503
5,716
153
2,486
2,639
86
1,353
1,439
1,977
2,732
4,709
Jun 10
2,838
16,147
18,985
488
3,437
3,925
5,846
138
2,569
2,707
77
1,251
1,328
2,135
3,044
5,179
Mar 10
2,611
15,152
17,763
436
2,930
3,366
5,705
135
2,508
2,643
79
1,350
1,429
1,961
2,659
4,620
Sep 10
-18.9%… Domestic
22.3%… International
-22.2%
-45.0%
-39.6%
-34.7%
-25.3%
-27.7%
-
-8.8%
-36.5%
-34.1%
-16.4%
-21.0%
11.9%
-6.2%
YoY
… Domestic
Total Off-BS Funds
… International
… Domestic
… International
Pension Funds
Other (2)
Bancassurance (Domestic)
… International
… Domestic
Real Estate Funds
… International
… Domestic
Mutual Funds
(EUR million)
(1) The decrease of Bancassurance funds reflects the full consolidation of BES Vida. Life Insurance Products are included in On Balance Sheet customer funds as from 2Q2012. (2) Other includes off-BS structured products, discretionary management and venture capital
(1)
651H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Available for Sale Portfolio – main equity holdings potential gains & losses
-120.2
5.5
-117.2
-8.5
1Q12
-169.4
5.7
-151.0
-24.1
4Q11
-224.8
6.2
-200.9
-30.1
3Q11
-161.7
5.2
-146.8
-20.1
2Q11
112.6
6.3
-28.7
0.0
1Q11
120.3
7.3
-7.3
-49.9
2010
-111.2
-1.3
-99.8
-10.1
2Q12
741.4Total
2.56%
12.57%
2.30%
Stake (%)
76.8BMCE
498.2PT
166.4EDP
Acquis.
Value(EUR million)
Potential Gains and Losses
661H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Quarterly solvency ratios
10.8%
9.6%
9.4%
4%
233
782
6,185
6,067
6,967
3,938
2,198
58,451
64,587
Mar 12(IRB)
10.7%
9.4%
9.2%
4%
245
799
6,171
6,020
6,970
3,938
1,742
59,705
65,385
Dec 11(IRB)
10.6%
9.0%
8.1%
12%
729
1,018
6,020
5,380
7,038
3,973
2,218
60,524
66,715
Sep 11(IRB)
11. 5%
9.2%
8.2%
13%
775
1,517
6,127
5,445
7,577
3,973
2,976
59,482
66,431
Jun 11(IRB)
11.4%
8.8%
7.9%
15%
920
1,805
6,033
5,395
7,838
3,973
4,389
60,214
68,576
Mar 11(IRB)
11.3%
8.8%
7.9%
15%
920
1,758
6,040
5,416
7,798
3,973
4,219
60,610
68,802
Dec 10(IRB)
11.0%
8.3%
7.9%
11%
600
1,807
5,589
5,303
7,393
3,668
3,900
59,642
67,210
Sep 10(IRB)
11.1%
10.4%
10.5%
3%
226
436
6,666
6,708
7,102
3,938
1,825
58,054
63,817
Jun 12(IRB)
10.6%
8.1%
7.9%
11%
600
1,699
5,405
5,276
7,104
3,668
4,303
59,092
67,063
Mar 10(IRB)
11.2%
8.4%
7.9%
11%
600
1,857
5,668
5,300
7,516
3,668
4,408
59,115
67,191
Jun 10(IRB)
As % Tier I
…Banking Book
…Trading Book
…Oper. Risk
Core Tier I
Tier I (%)
Total Capital
Tier I
Tier II and Other
Core Tier I (%)
Total (%)
Hybrid Capital
RWA (BoP)
(EUR million)
Notes: BIS II IRB corresponds to calculations based on IRB Foundation for credit risk and standardised approach for operational risk. Preliminary data as of Jun 2012.
671H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Pension Funds
1.21.1
Assets Liabilities
Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12
Discount rate 5.50% 5.50% 5.50%
Expected Return of Plan Assets
5.50% 5.50% 5.50%
Increase in Salaries 3.25% 2.25% 2.25%
Increase in Pensions 1.75% 1.00% 1.00%
Pension Fund Assets & Liabilities Actuarial assumptions
681H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Table of contents
I. Solvency: strong capitalisation levels, with core capital comfortably above minimum
regulatory thresholds of EBA and BoP
II. 1H12 results: strong revenues allowing for reinforced provisioning levels
III. Asset Quality: Conservative and prudent risk management, with strong provision
reserve
IV. Funding & Liquidity: Increase in repoable assets leading to a comfortable buffer of
ECB eligible pool
V. Wrap up
Appendix 1: Detailed financial data
Appendix 2: Portuguese Economy: setting conditions for sustainable growth
Appendix 3: Macro forecasts Portugal, Spain, Angola and Brazil
691H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Sources: ECB, Bloomberg, Reuters EcoWin Pro.
EUR/USD.
External environment: Higher risk aversion, given renewed concerns with the Euro Area
Euro Area 5-year CDS spreads, financial sector (bps).Main world stock indices.
Government bond yields (%).10-year Government bond spreads(%).
OECD Leading Indicator.
0
50
100
150
200
250
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Basis
Poi
nts
0200400600800
10001200140016001800200022002400260028003000320034003600
Oct. 2007 Jul. 2008 Apr. 2009 Jan. 2010 Oct. 2010 Jul. 2011 Apr. 2012
Pont
os B
ase
Greece
Ireland
Portugal
Spain
614
1024
509
2636
519Italy
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
EUR
/USD
1.226
YTD 2012: -5.4%
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
%
USA
Germany 1.401.23
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Inde
x (P
oint
s)
China
US
Euro Area
701H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Portugal: Economic activity is contracting, but most indicators are starting to suggest a gradual stabilisation trend over the next quarters
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
10.9%
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012
OECD Leading IndicatorCoincident indicator of economicactivity (% y-o-y)
Retail sales (%, real annual averagegrowth, 12m MA)
Total electricity consumption(% y-o-y, 3m MA)
Households’ savings rate (% disposable income)
GDP growth (%)
Sources: INE, Bank of Portugal, European Commission, ES Research.
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
%
Q-o-Q
Y-o-Y
-0.1
-2.2
May: -2.1% yoyJan-May: -2.6% yoy
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011
%
Total
-7.1
Food products
Non Food products
Total excl. fuel
-6.6
-4.3
-9.9
May. 2012
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
Jan. 2011
Mar. 2011
May. 2011
Jul. 2011
Sep. 2011
Nov. 2011
Jan. 2012
Mar. 2012
May. 2012
%
-3.3%(May 2012)
%1Q 2012
May
711H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
• The Budget implementation from January-June shows a strong decline in the State’s discretionary public spending...
• Primary current spending: -3.5% y-o-y (vs. -3.1% target)• Wage spending: -16.9% y-o-y• Purchases of goods and services: -16% y-o-y• Investment spending: -49.7% y-o-y
• ... but the cyclical components of revenue and expenditure are falling (even if at a slower pace), reflecting the significant contraction in domestic demand and the increase in unemployment.
• Tax revenues: -3.1% y-o-y (vs. +2.6% target)• VAT revenue: -1.8% y-o-y• Unemployment benefits: +22.4% y-o-y• Interest spending: +19.9% y-o-y
• Overall, in January-June the State’s total expenditure decreased 2.2% y-o-y (vs. -0.9% target) and total revenues (excluding the one-off effect of the transfer of banks’ pension funds) fell 2.1% y-o-y (vs. +1.2% target).
• In spite of the risks and difficult challenges still remaining in 2012 and 2013, the budget implementation suggests that significant results are being achieved in fiscal consolidation. This has translatedinto improved market perceptions of Portugal, with 10 year Government bond yields falling in the secondary market.
With the strong commitment to fiscal consolidation, and in spite of the difficult challenges, investors’ perceptions of the Portuguese economy have improved
Portuguese Government Bond yields in thesecondary market (%)
Average yields in Treasury Bill issues (%)
Sources: Bloomberg,IGCP.
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
1 Jun. 2011
20 Jul. 2011
7 Sep. 2011
19 Oct. 2011
7 Dec. 2011
1 Feb. 2012
4 Apr. 2012
18 Jul. 2012
3 Month
6 Month12 Month
18 Month
2.29%
3.5%
02468
10121416182022
Jan. 2010 Jul. 2010 Jan. 2011 Jul. 2011 Jan. 2012 Jul. 2012
10Y
2Y
7.6010.5
721H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Portugal’s public debt is sustainable, even under conservative assumptions. PSI is not envisaged nor required
Base scenarios for Portugal’s public debt (% GDP) (1) Public debt scenarios (% GDP) according to average GDP growth (% ) (1)(2)
No restructuring (or PSI) is expected. Also, given Portugal’s strong commitment to the financial and structural adjustment targets, the IMF/EU/ECB have reaffirmed their commitment to continue to support Portugal “until market access is regained”.
Sources: EC, IMF, ECB, ES Research.
(1) Includes EUR 12 billion of Bank recapitalisation funds, which are not expected to be used entirely. (2) ES Research analysis, assuming 2% GDP deflator, 5% average interest rate and 3% of GDP average primary surplus. .
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
118.6
97.7
87.9
68.3
87.9
97.7
107.5
103.7
108.0
110.2
112.3
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0
3.0
2.0
1.5
1.0
731H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Portuguese exports increased 9% YoY (nominal growth) in the period January-May, with extra-EU exports increasing 28% YoY
2.0
0.6
5.7
1.1
4.2
0.5
0.9
1.3
5.1
12.2
13.0
22.5
196.7
63.7
37.3
33.5
33.1
24.6
12.4
12.0
10.5
4.8
2.0
-5.3
Portuguese merchandise exports to selected countries
(%)Weight merchandise
exports, %Growth merchandise
exports, %
(0.7)
(0.4)
(4.5)
(0.9)
(3.5)
(0.4)
(0.9)
(1.2)
(5.0)
(12.7)
(13.9)
(25.9)
Growth May 2012/11Weight May 2012( ) May 2011
Top 5 merchandise exports(2012 May, weight, %)
Top 5 services exports
(2012 May, weight, %)
6.3
8.3
8.4
8.7
13.1
0 5 10 15
Transportation Vehicles
Machinery and electrical equipment
Mineral Fuels
Common Metals
Machinery and mechanical appliances
2.8
3.1
16
31.2
38.8
0 20 40 60
Travel and Tourism
Transportation
Other business services
Communications services
Computer and information services
China
Mozambique
Angola
Morocco
USA
Japan
Poland
Brazil
UK
France
Germany
Spain
Sources: INE, ES Research.
741H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012Sources: INE, Bank of Portugal, ES Research.
Portuguese Exports Profile (2000 - 2011)
(EUR bn)
Total: 13%
15%Merchandise
9%Services
%Δ 2011/10
Portuguese Exports Breakdown, Intra-EU and Extra-EU
(2000-2011, weight, %) %Δ 2012/11
(Merchandise,January-May)
9.0%
27.2 31.1 38.8 31.7 36.8 42.49.8 12.2
17.916.3 17.6 19.2
2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011
Services
Merchandise
79.2 79.5 74.5 74.7 74.1 73.3
26.7 25.9 25.3 25.5 20.5 20.8
2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011
EXTRA-EU
INTRA-EU
Portugal has been expanding its relevant market to fast growing emerging markets. The profile of Portuguese exports has been changing, with an increase in the weight of high value added goods and services
751H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
-10.3-17.9
-24.8-31.9
-39.5-46.3
-55.4 -58.2-63.1 -67.4
-78.8-88.9
-96.1
-110.6-107.3 -103.7-105.4
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
% of
GDP
Banking Sector Monetary authority General GovernmentOther Sectors Total net external liabilities
The ongoing deleveraging is also translating into a lower stock of net external liabilities, which declined from 110.6% to 105.4% of GDP between 2009 and 1Q 2012
Source: Bank of Portugal.
Banking Sector Monet. Auth. General Gov. Other Sectors2009 1Q 2012
-46 -12
Stock of net external
liabilities of the Portuguese economy
(% GDP)
2009 1Q 2012
+2 -222009 1Q 2012
-60 -532009 1Q 2012
-7 -18
761H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
0
2
4
6
8
10
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q 2012
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q 2012
% of
GDP
Ample external assets provide stability in the face of a tough financing environment. Portugal is one of the main world holders of gold reserves
Portugal’s gold reservesPortugal’s gross external assets (% GDP)
In the face of a difficult financing environment, Portugal benefits from holding ample external assets (173% of GDP in 1Q 2012). Also, Portugal is one of the main world holders of gold reserves (estimated at 9.6% of GDP).
9.6173
(% GDP)(% GDP)
771H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
The Portuguese language and the Portuguese communities abroad represent an important asset to Portuguese companies, giving them a comparative advantage in their approach to several fast growing markets and their neighbouring areas
AngolaBrazil
Cape Verde
Guinea Bissau
Mozambique
Portugal
EquatorialGuinea
East Timor
Macau
Countries with relevant Portuguese communities:
India
USA
Canada
France
UK
SwitzerlandLuxemburg
NetherlandsBelgium Germany
Spain
South AfricaArgentina
Venezuela
Australia> 15 000 and < 100 000
> 100 000 and < 500 000
> 500 000 and < 1 000 000
> 1 000 000
São Tomé and Príncipe
The Portuguese language in the world - 2011
1 Data for 2010 referring to countries with Portuguese as official language.Sources: UN, IMF, ES Research.
Population PIB International Trade1
256.5 million EUR 2 225.2 billion EUR 441.9 billion3.7% of world 4.4% of world 2% of world
781H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Strong transport and logistic potential. Portuguese ports can play an important role in the trade flows between America, Africa, Asia and Europe
(…)
(…)
Potential routes to the Portuguese ports
Sources: IPTM, ES Research - Research Sectorial.
Container cargo, Portuguese ports, 2004 - 2011(Thousand TEUs/year)
Main maritime trade routes from South America and Western Africa are experiencing very strong growth.Portuguese ports are becoming privileged gateways into the European market given the signs of congestion at the major seaports of Europe.
791H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
• Reducing unit labour costs: Increase in the number of workdays and decrease in overtime work compensation.
• Labour market flexibility: Lower restrictions in individual dismissals; Lower severance payments, in line with EU average; Implementation of working time management mechanisms (e.g. the hour bank).
Ongoing structural reforms will also contribute to higher growth over the medium term
Labour marketreform
• Increased competition in Telecoms: Lower mobile termination rates; more competitive auction rules (e.g. 4G); Broader access of all operators to existing networks.
• Reducing excessive mark-ups and increased competition in Electricity: Convergence to market-based pricing, increased choice of service supplier.
• Ongoing implementation of the Services Directive: Liberalisation of access to regulated professions.
Product marketreform
• Competition environment: New Competition Law harmonised with EU practice, strengthening the power of the Competition Authority; Creation of a specialisedCourt on Competition, Regulation and Supervision.
• Rental market reform: Improving contract flexibility and the possibility of rent adjustments.
• Improved judicial system: Higher speed and simplification of corporate insolvencies and recoveries; Easier out-of-court settlements.
Improvingbusinessenvironment
801H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
The successful implementation of the privatisation programme underscores the attractiveness of the Portuguese economy to foreign investment and Portugal’s ability to diversify sources of capital and liquidity in a difficult funding environment
Sources: Ministry of Finance.
Air infrastructure
Electricity distribution Air transport Railway
logisticsTelevision
broadcasting
Water distributionInsuranceEnergy retail
and production
Mail distribution
✓
✓
2011 2012 20131H 2H
(1)
(1) Concession
NOTE: GALP privatisation waits favourable market conditions The Government sold its stake of 21.35% in EDP to China’s Three Gorges for EUR 2.69 bn; the operation will also involve investments of EUR 2 bn in wind farms and guaranteed funding of EUR 2 bn through Chinese banks. The Government also sold a 25% stake in REN to China’s State Grid (EUR 387 mn) and to Oman Oil (EUR 205 mn).
811H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Sources: Reuters EcoWin Pro, Bank of Portugal, Other National Central Banks.
The correction of the macroeconomic imbalances is proceeding in a context of financial sector stability. Performance of Bank deposits in Portugal is in clear contrast with other periphery economies
Stock of Bank deposits (December 2009 = 100)* Central Bank liquidity provision (including ELA estimates for Greece and Ireland), EUR Billion
* Greece: data for June; Portugal and Ireland: data for May; Spain: data for April.
Changesince Dec.
2009
+16%
+16%
+2%+2%
-9%-9%
-35%
-35%
Deposits / GDP.
Dec.11
138%138%
215%215%
104%104%
84%84%0
255075
100125150175200225250275300325350
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012EU
R B
illion
Spain(337.2Jun. 2012)
Greece(135.6;Jun. 2012)
Ireland(126.0; May 2012)
Italy(281.4;May2012)
Portugal(60.5; Jun. 2012)
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
Dez. 09 Abr. 10 Ago. 10 Dez. 10 Abr. 11 Ago. 11 Dez. 11 Abr. 12
Portugal
Spain
Ireland
Greece
821H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
100
150
200
250
300
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
7
4457
96
No bubble in house prices. Between 1998 and 2011, Portugal real estate prices have shown very little real growth, in clear contrast with other Euro Area economies
Sources: ECB, Bloomberg, ES Research.
2011
Residential Property, Accumulated Real Price Growth 1998-2011 (%)1
Nominal House Price Index1998 = 100
(1) Accumulated nominal house price growth minus accumulated CPI growth
The Portuguese housing market faced the recent global financial crisis in a very different cyclical position from those in economies such as Ireland or Spain. House price growth has been moderate over the last years, essentially reflecting macroeconomic developments and fundamentals. Portuguese banks haven’t been facing the hangover of a bubble burst in house prices.
831H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Table of contents
I. Solvency: strong capitalisation levels, with core capital comfortably above minimum
regulatory thresholds of EBA and BoP
II. 1H12 results: strong revenues allowing for reinforced provisioning levels
III. Asset Quality: Conservative and prudent risk management, with strong provision
reserve
IV. Funding & Liquidity: Increase in repoable assets leading to a comfortable buffer of
ECB eligible pool
V. Wrap up
Appendix 1: Detailed financial data
Appendix 2: Portuguese Economy: setting conditions for sustainable growth
Appendix 3: Macro forecasts Portugal, Spain, Angola and Brazil
841H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
GDP 2.4 0.0 -2.9 1.4 -1.6 -2.8 0.3 1.5 2.3
Private Consumption 2.5 1.3 -2.3 2.1 -4.0 -5.2 -1.6 0.4 1.0
Public Consumption 0.5 0.3 4.7 0.9 -3.8 -2.7 -1.1 0.2 0.3
Investment 2.1 -0.1 -13.3 -3.6 -13.9 -10.6 -4.5 0.2 2.7
Exports 7.5 -0.1 -10.9 8.8 7.6 4.2 4.5 5.7 6.7
Imports 5.5 2.3 -10.0 5.4 -5.3 -4.2 -1.5 2.6 3.9
Inflation (%) 2.5 2.6 -0.8 1.4 3.7 3.3 1.5 1.6 1.6
Budget Balance (% GDP) -3.1 -3.6 -10.1 -9.8 -4.2* -4.5** -3.0** -1.8** -1.0**
Public Debt (% GDP) 68.3 71.6 83.0 93.4 107.8 114.4 118.6 117.8 115.8
Unemployment (% Labour Force)*** 8.0 7.6 9.5 10.8 12.7 15.4 15.8 14.6 13.0
Current & Capital Account Balance (% GDP) -8.9 -11.1 -10.1 -8.3 -5.1 -1.7 0.8 1.0 1.1
Annual growth rates (%), except where indicated
* Including the effects of the integration of the banks’ pension funds and other one-off measures. Without these effects, the deficit would be 7.9% of GDP. ** Economic and Financial Adjustment Program targets.*** Figures for 2011 and following years not comparable with the previous figures, due to a change of series. F: Forecast.Sources: Bank of Portugal, INE, ES Research, European Commission, IMF, OECD.
Portugal: Main Forecasts 2012-2015
851H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Sources: INE, Bank of Spain, ES Research, European Commission.
Spain: Main Forecasts 2012-2013
Annual real growth rates (%), except where indicated. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F
GDP 3.5 0.9 -3.7 -0.1 0.7 -1.9 -0.8
Private Consumption 3.5 -0.6 -4.3 1.3 -0.1 -2.0 -1.5
Public Consumption 5.6 5.9 3.2 -0.1 -2.2 -11.5 -3.2
Investment 4.5 -4.7 -16.0 -7.4 -5.1 -6.5 1.6
Exports 6.7 -1.0 -11.6 9.2 9.0 3.8 4.0
Imports 8.0 -5.2 -17.8 3.5 -0.1 -6.0 -1.2
Inflation (%) 2.8 4.1 -0.2 2.0 3.1 1.9 1.1
Budget Deficit (% GDP) 1.9 -4.5 -11.1 -9.3 -8.9 -6.3 -4.5
Public Debt (% GDP) 36.2 40.1 53.8 61.0 68.5 79.8 81.0
Current & Capital Account Balance (% GDP) -9.6 -9.2 -4.5 -4.0 -3.4 -0.7 -1.0
Unemployment (% of Labour Force) 8.3 11.3 18.0 20.0 21.6 24.3 25.0
861H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Sources: IMF, Angolan Central Bank, Finance Ministry, ES Research.
Angola: Main Forecasts 2012-2013
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F
GDP (real growth rate, %) 22.6 13.8 2.4 3.4 3.9 6.8 6.0
GDP per capita (USD, current prices) 3 443 4 671 4 082 4 329 5 144 6 009 6 231
Inflation (%) 12.3 12.5 13.7 14.5 13.5 10.8 8.6
Current Account Balance (% GDP) 21.7 12.7 -9.9 9.0 9.6 7.3 4.4
Budget Balance (% GDP) 11.3 8.9 -4.9 5.5 10.2 6.1 1.7
Exchange Rate (USD/KZ), annual
average76.8 75.0 79.2 91.9 93.7 95.2 95.4
BNA Rediscount Rate (%), end of period 19.6 19.6 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 15.0
871H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Sources: IBGE, Central Bank of Brazil, ES Research.
Brazil: Main Forecasts 2012-2013
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F
GDP (real growth rate, %) 6.1 5.2 -0.3 7.5 2.7 2.2 4.5
Inflation (%) 4.5 5.9 4.3 5.9 6.5 5.0 5.8
Primary Budget Balance (% GDP) 3.4 4.0 2.0 2.7 3.1 2.8 3.1
Public Debt (% GDP) 45.1 38.0 41.5 39.2 36.5 37.0 36.3
Unemployment (% of Labour Force) 9.3 7.9 8.1 6.7 6.0 5.7 5.9
Current Account Balance (% GDP) 0.1 -1.7 -1.5 -2.2 -2.1 -2.5 -2.8
Exchange Rate (USD/BRL), annual
average1.95 1.84 1.99 1.76 1.68 1.93 1.92
SELIC Interest Rate (%, End of Period) 11.25 13.75 8.75 10.75 11.00 7.50 9.00
881H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
Disclaimer
This news release may include certain statements relating to the Banco Espírito Santo Group that are neither reported financial results nor other historical information. These statements, which may include targets, forecasts, projections, descriptions of anticipated cost savings, statements regarding the possible development or possible assumed future results of operations and any statement preceded by, followed by or that includes the words “believes”, “expects”, “aims”, “intends”, “may” or similar expressions or negatives thereof are or may constitute forward-looking statements.
By their nature, forward-looking statements are inherently predictive, speculative and involve risk and uncertainty. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by forward-looking statements. These factors include, but are not limited to, changes in economic conditions in individual countries in which the BES Group conducts its business and internationally, fiscal or other policies adopted by various governments and regulatory authorities of Portugal and other jurisdictions, levels of competition from other banks and financial services companies as well as future exchange and interest rates.
Banco Espírito Santo does not undertake to release publicly any revision to the forward-looking information included in this news release to reflect events, circumstances or unanticipated events occurring after the date hereof.
891H12 Results Presentation 30 July 2012
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