1D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Debriefing FishBanks An example of game...

1DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows

Debriefing FishBanks

An example of game debriefing

Dennis Meadows

Uppsala University; 11/5/2015


Reflecting on the Game

• Video of an actual fishing system (optional)

• Performance of the teams• Alternative strategies• Why did that happen?• What can be done?


Summary of Game Behavior

FISH BOATS CATCH

123456789

10

0

YEAR

INDEX

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

FISH CATCHSHIPS


Typical Game Behavior

FishShipsShips8

6

4

2

0

INDEX

Catch

Ships

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

YEAR


Typical Game Behavior - Fleet

0

10

20

3040

50

60

70

80

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7YEAR

SHIPS

TOTAL FLEET


Typical Game Behavior - Catch

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

YEAR

Fishper

Year

Deep SeaCatch

CoastalCatch


Typical Game Behavior - Fish Population

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

YEAR

FISH

Deep Sea

Coastal


Does fish depletion happen in real life?

• Pacific sardine fishery

• Peruvian anchovy fishery

• North Sea Herring• Georges Bank Cod

fish


Pacific Sardine Catch

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700


Peruvian Anchovy Catch

YEAR

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Estimated Maximum Sustainable Catch


North Sea Herring Catch

Mark Wise, Common Fisheries Policy of the European Community, New York, Methuen, 1984.

a

0200400600800100012001400

North Seaherring ban


Georges Bank Codfish Catch

aa

Year00000101010101020202020203030303030404040404050505050506060606060


Total World Fish Catch

Source: Fisheries of the United States. US Dept. of Commerce.

YEAR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


Global Fisheries Depletion

Region

Northwest Atlantic

Northeast Atlantic

Southeast Atlantic

Northwest Pacific

Northeast Pacific

Southeast Pacific

Total

Species

CodHaddockCapelinHerring

Herring

Pilchard

Salmon

Halibut PerchKing Crab

Anchoveta

Potential

1,350 100 500 300

2,250

600 350

38 210 40

2-5,000*

10,738

1988 Catch

643 36 110 284

1394

66 258

43 33 10

2,877

5754

Loss

707 64 390 16

856

534

92

-5 177 30

2,123

4,984

Source: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, "Review of World Fishery Resources," Rome 1990.*Potential use to be 9,-11,000,000 tons before the collapse in the 1960s. The new potential is more likely 2-

5,000,000 tons, but the stock is highly variable.

Thousands of Tons


New England Fisheries - Hard Times

I remember catching 5,000 pounds of fish in eight nets. Today, it might take up to 80 nets. Back then, the average codfish in the spring would probably be 25 to 40 pounds. Now, it's 5 to 8 pounds." - Peter Morse

"Go down to the docks and talk to the guys down there," said John Nelson, chief of the Marine Fisheries Division of the state Fish and Game Department. "Most of them have their boats for sale. If they could sell their boats and do something else, they would.Source: Clare Kittredge, "N.H. Fish Story Is Not a Happy One," Boston Globe.

February 4, 1990.


Present Value of the Fishery

The maximization of the present value of the fishery by employing an optimum dynamic strategy need not but can imply extinctions of the fishery. Does this mean that economists would recommend the extinction of fish species under appropriate market conditions? Social decisions take place in a multiple-objective or multiple-criterion framework of which economic net benefits are but one criterion. The responsible economist would generate information on the present values of the fishery under different schemes of management. If the highest present value of net benefits appears to be generated by a pattern of fishing that eventually would exterminate the fish stock, this would be stated, along with the information on other schemes that would preserve a viable fish stock. The decision makers then would understand the tradeoffs involved and could proceed with their decision.Source: Charles W. Howe, "The Management of Fisheries," in Natural Resource

Economics, John Wiley & Sons, 1979.


Dietary Importance of Fish Population

At present, fish comprise 34 percent of the animal-

protein for the world's population; in developing

nations, more than 40 percent.

Source: "Assaulting the Seas: Rising Human Tide Overwhelms Oceans," The ZPG Reporter, July 1991.


Other Importance of Fish Population

• provides export earnings for poor nations

• important source of jobs and income

• foundation for the culture of many regions and towns

• supports a diverse ecosystem


Alternative Strategies

1

2

3Maximum

SustainableCatch

TIME

CATCH

-

-

-

-


What Happened?

What caused the overshoot and collapse?

Who was responsible?


Causes of Overshoot

• poor understanding of the level and the causes of the limit

• science is inadequate, market prices confuse the issue, those with a short-term vested interest misrepresent the situation

• momentum in the system

• long delays in deciding, responding, affecting


Causes of Collapse

Collapse happens when the process of overshooting lowers the limit, and it takes a long time for the system to recover.


Examples of Collapse

• drinking too much alcohol

• cutting too many trees

• abusing trust and good will - phone marketing

• relying on debt

• building too many offices or residences

• misleading accounting

• ozone layer, ground water, agricultural soils


Avoiding Collapse

• understand the limit

• reduce the momentum or look ahead

• speed up response

• avoid the destruction of the system in ways that lower the limit.

• what is the role of technology?


Impact of Technology on Ship Effectiveness

0 MAXIMUM0

HIGH TECHNOLOGY

LOWTECHNOLOGY

CATCHPER

SHIP-YEAR

FISH DENSITY

-

-

-

-

-


The Fisheries System: Fish

TOTALCATCH

FISH

DENSITY

REGENERATION

+-+-, +(+-,)


The Fisheries System: Catch

PROFIT

SHIPS

INVESTMENT

DESIREDGROWTH

INCOME

FISHPRICE

TOTALCATCH

FISH

DENSITY

CATCH PERSHIPOPERATINGCOSTS

PURCHASE ANDCONSTRUCTION

COSTS

-+-

++

++

++ +++

-(-)

(-)(+)

CATCH

+


The Fisheries System: Investment

PROFIT

SHIPS

INVESTMENT

DESIREDGROWTH

INCOME

FISHPRICE

TOTALCATCH

OPERATINGCOSTS


COSTS

-+-

++

++

++ +

(-)(+)

(+)

+,-


The Fisheries System Structure

PROFIT

SHIPS

INVESTMENT

DESIREDGROWTH

INCOME

FISHPRICE

TOTALCATCH

FISH

DENSITY

CATCH PERSHIP

REGENERATION

OPERATINGCOSTS


COSTS

-+-

++

++

++ +++

+-+-, +

(-)(+-,)

(-)(+)

(+)

+,-


What can be done?

• Partition the seas• Establish quotas• Farm fish• Move down food chain• Change consumption preferences• Reduce destruction and pollution

of fisheries• Limit ship fleets, technology• Develop better methods to assess

stock• Change social values and

economic incentives

1D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Debriefing FishBanks An example of game...

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