1998/9/7 研究方法 1

解釋架構 Schema

• 我們對於世界的認知大多為不專注，不須深思熟慮的半意識活動。我們依賴一套結構化的先驗知識系統 (highly structured, pre-existing knowledge system) 來解釋世界並作為我們行為的依據。

1998/9/7 研究方法 2

個人對於外在世界的解釋架構

外在事件外在事件

對於行為及事件的因果關係之解釋

對於行為及事件的因果關係之解釋

修正既有的解釋架構

解釋架構認知結構解釋架構認知結構

觀察認知

學習、約定成俗的信仰與社會化、權威

學習、約定成俗的信仰與社會化、權威

解釋

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解釋架構的好處

• 由於過去經驗的累積，行動者通常已經理出一套不可言傳（ tacit knowledge ）的行為方式。 Schema 使我們用相同的方式來處理同類的情境，這些做事通則幫我們省去不少時間。讓我們不必花腦筋在熟悉的情境上，可撥出更多的注意力於複雜、多變的事物中。

• Business Intuition

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解釋架構不但影響你對世界的了解也影響世界

• 對人性的假設影響人性

對行為、人性的假設：學生都是懶惰被動的，必須以嚴格的要求及監督來改

變其行為

對行為、人性的假設：學生都是懶惰被動的，必須以嚴格的要求及監督來改

變其行為

對待人的方式：每週小考、上課點名、重修

對待人的方式：每週小考、上課點名、重修

人性human nat

ure

人性human nat

ure

學生無法養成自動學習的習慣

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賣花女與淑女的差異

• George Bernard Shaw: PygmalionEliza: “Apart from the things anyone can pick up (the dressing and the proper way of speaking, and so on), the difference between a lady and a flower girl is not how she behaves, but how she’s treated.”

• Pygmalion in the Classroom ： 告訴小學老師 20% 的班上學童顯示出「特殊的智性潛力」。八個月後這些學童的 IQ 成績大幅成長。

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解釋架構的不完美

觀察能力須要透過學習不是與生俱來的能力開車車距科學家開研討會的實驗測量工具的不精準 :態度與行為的不一致工作滿意度、客戶滿意度及購買意願先驗的解釋架構對觀察的影響個人文化背景對觀察的影響 ( 棒球 vs. 鬥牛 ; 罪犯 vs. 農

夫）

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語言對意義的干擾代表語意與隱含意義：兩車相撞的試驗語言的脈絡可以引導錯誤的邏輯A ：我有兩個小孩Ｂ：沒關係Ａ：我還有一隻狗Ｂ：哪可不行

解釋架構的不完美：對資訊解釋及溝通的誤謬

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約定成俗的傳統權威猩猩的香蕉的試驗群體權威與從眾行為實驗室排隊專業權威最低工資與就業率電擊試驗

解釋架構的不完美：知識權威

1998/9/7 研究方法 9

缺乏檢證的解釋架構可能將我們導入歧途

解釋架構變成通則：• “愈晚離開辦公室的員工愈認真、勤勞”

• 愈晚離開辦公室的員工做事愈不得法、愈沒效率“

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The Icarus Paradox

•組織興衰的生命週期十分相似。

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What are the goals of theory?What are the goals of theory?

實證科學的傳統 Prediction Prediction UnderstandingUnderstanding To predict phenomena, we must have an To predict phenomena, we must have an

explanation of why explanation of why variablesvariables behave as th behave as they do. Theories provide these explanationey do. Theories provide these explanations. s.

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The Meaning of TheoryThe Meaning of Theory

A theory is a coherent set of general propositions命題 used to explain the apparent relationships among certain observed phenomena. Theories allow generalizations beyond individual facts or situations.

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Concepts-the building block of theoryConcepts-the building block of theory

Concepts (概念） --A generalized idea about a class of objects, attributes, occurrences, or processes; an abstraction of reality that is the basic unit for theory development.

Concepts are created by classifying and categorizing分門別類 objects or events that have common characteristics共同性質 beyond the single observation.

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Concepts-the building block of theoryConcepts-the building block of theory

ConceptsConcepts abstract reality and may vary in abstract reality and may vary in degree of abstractiondegree of abstraction

The The abstract level-abstract level---in theory development, the in theory development, the level of knowledge expressing a concept that level of knowledge expressing a concept that exists only as an idea or a quality apart from an exists only as an idea or a quality apart from an object. object.

Empirical level-Empirical level---level of knowledge reflecting level of knowledge reflecting that which is verifiable by experience or that which is verifiable by experience or observation.observation.

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Concepts-the building block of theoryConcepts-the building block of theory

Identify two concepts from the following statement: “Older workers prefer different rewards than younger workers.”

two concepts -- age of worker and reward preference.

Researchers are concerned with the observable world (reality). Theorists translate their conceptualization of reality into abstract ideas. Things are not the essence of theory: ideas are. Concepts in isolation are not theories. Only when we explain how concepts relate to other concepts do we begin to construct theories.

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Problems in concept useProblems in concept use 概念在使用上的問題概念在使用上的問題

people differ in the meanings they include under the particular label.

leadership motivation personality social class organizational commitment組織忠誠度 The success of research hinges on (1) how clearly we conceptua

lize and (2) how well others understand the concepts we use.

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VariableVariable

A variable is a special kind of concept. They are at the empirical level and may assume different numerical values.

Social Science involves the study of variables and the attributes that compose them.

Attributes or values are characteristics or qualities that describe an object

Variables are logical groupings of attributes Male/female are attributes, sex or gender are the variables

composed of those two attributes.

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OperationalizationOperationalization

Operations involved in measuring a variable. An operational definition is one stated in terms of specific testing criteria or operations 用可操作的或可測量的標準來定義 . These terms must have empirical referents 經驗的對象 (that is, we must be able to count, measure, or in some other way gather the information through our senses 能用感官去蒐集的資訊 ).

Operationalize the following concepts: Operationalize the following concepts: Firm size Firm size The degree of competition in the marketThe degree of competition in the market family's total incomefamily's total income

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OperationalizationOperationalization

• A concept and the operational definition are NOT the same thing概念不等同於操作型定義 . Operational definitions provide only limited insight into what a concept really is.

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Nature of propositionNature of proposition

Propositions (命題 ) are statements concerned with the relationship among concepts. A proposition explains the logical linkage among concepts by asserting a universal connection between concepts.

Theories are networks of propositions (relationships between propositions).

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HypothesisHypothesis

A hypothesis is specified expectations about empirical reality, derived from proposition. It is an unproven proposition or supposition that tentatively explains certain facts or phenomenon; it is empirically testable.

A variable is a special kind of concept. They are at the empirical level and may assume different numerical values.

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What is a good hypothesis?What is a good hypothesis?

the hypothesis must be testable The hypothesis must be better than its

rivals the hypothesis must be simple, requiring

few conditions or assumptions.

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Hypothesis are the empirical Hypothesis are the empirical counterpart of propositionscounterpart of propositions

Concept ADegree of demographic heterogeneity

Concept ADegree of demographic heterogeneity

Proposition

Concept BSocial integration

Concept BSocial integration

Abstract level

HypothesisEmpirical level

Age, education, gender, seniority variation

Turnover, communication, conflicts

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A basic theory explaining voluntary job A basic theory explaining voluntary job turnoverturnover

Job performance

Job performance

Labor market conditions, number of organizations, personal characteristics…etc.

Perceived ease of movement

Perceived ease of movement

Perceived desirability of movement (job satisfaction)

Perceived desirability of movement (job satisfaction)

Pay, job complexity, participation in decision making…etc.

Intentions to quitIntentions to quit

Job turnoverJob turnover

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A note on the difference between A note on the difference between theories and modelstheories and models

• A model is definedA model is defined as as a representation of a systea representation of a system that is constructed to study some aspect of thm that is constructed to study some aspect of that system or the system as a whole.at system or the system as a whole.

• A model is not an explanation.A model is not an explanation. Models differ frModels differ from theories om theories in that in that a theory‘s role is explanationa theory‘s role is explanation解釋解釋 whereas whereas a model’s role is representationa model’s role is representation表達表達 ..

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Verifying theoryVerifying theory

There are alternative theories to explain certain There are alternative theories to explain certain classes of phenomenaclasses of phenomena. To determine which is . To determine which is the better theory, researchers gather empirical the better theory, researchers gather empirical data or observations to verify the theories. data or observations to verify the theories.

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Verifying vs. Falsifying TheoryVerifying vs. Falsifying Theory

It must be possible to demonstrate that a given It must be possible to demonstrate that a given proposition or theory is false…Why “false” rather proposition or theory is false…Why “false” rather than “true”? than “true”?

Technically, there may be other untested theories Technically, there may be other untested theories which could account for the results we obtained in which could account for the results we obtained in our study of a proposition. At the very least, there our study of a proposition. At the very least, there may be a competing explanation which could be may be a competing explanation which could be the real explanation for a given set of research the real explanation for a given set of research findings. Thus, we can never be certain that our findings. Thus, we can never be certain that our proposition or theory is the correct one. proposition or theory is the correct one.

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Verifying theoryVerifying theory

The scientist can only say, “I have a theory The scientist can only say, “I have a theory which I have objectively tested with data and which I have objectively tested with data and the data are consistent with my theory.” if the the data are consistent with my theory.” if the possibility of proving an idea false or wrong possibility of proving an idea false or wrong is not inherent in our test of an idea, then we is not inherent in our test of an idea, then we cannot put much faith in the evidence that cannot put much faith in the evidence that suggests it to be true. No other evidence was suggests it to be true. No other evidence was allowed to manifest itself. allowed to manifest itself.

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How are theories generated?How are theories generated?

The tradition image of scienceThe tradition image of scienceIdea/interest

Theoretical understanding

A B

C X

YHypothesisY = f(X)

y = f(x)

Operationalization

Hypothesis testing

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Deductive versus inductive reasoningDeductive versus inductive reasoning

The traditional image of science is based on deductive The traditional image of science is based on deductive reasoning.reasoning.

Deductive reasoningDeductive reasoning moves from the general to the specific. It moves from the general to the specific. It moves from (1) a pattern that might be logically or theoretically moves from (1) a pattern that might be logically or theoretically expected to (2) observation that test whether the expected expected to (2) observation that test whether the expected pattern actually occurspattern actually occurs

Inductive reasoningInductive reasoning moves from the particular to the general, moves from the particular to the general, from a set of specific observations to the discovery of a pattern from a set of specific observations to the discovery of a pattern that represents some degree of order among all the given that represents some degree of order among all the given events. events.

Notice that deduction begins with “why” and moves to “whether” Notice that deduction begins with “why” and moves to “whether” while induction moves in the opposite direction.while induction moves in the opposite direction.

Deductive MethodDeductive Methodgrades

Hours studying

Hypothesis

grades

Hours studying

Observation

grades

Hours studying

Reject hypothesis?

Inductive MethodInductive Methodgrades

Hours studying

Observations

grades

Hours studying

Finding a pattern

grades

Hours studying

Tentative conclusion

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Deductive versus inductive reasoningDeductive versus inductive reasoning

Example: How do we explain stock performance?Example: How do we explain stock performance? Fundamental and technical analysisFundamental and technical analysis Question: Can you come up with an inductive anQuestion: Can you come up with an inductive an

d a deductive theory of marriage?d a deductive theory of marriage? Dependent=Dependent=是否結婚，從戀愛到結婚的時間，是否結婚，從戀愛到結婚的時間，

duration of marriage, divorce probability…etc. duration of marriage, divorce probability…etc. Independent = “distance” of age, education, sociIndependent = “distance” of age, education, soci

o-economic status…etc. o-economic status…etc.

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The Wheel of ScienceThe Wheel of Science

Both deduction and induction are routes to the construction of social theories. Theory and research Both deduction and induction are routes to the construction of social theories. Theory and research interact through a never ending alternation of deduction, induction, deduction, and so forth. It’s a interact through a never ending alternation of deduction, induction, deduction, and so forth. It’s a matter of personal choice!matter of personal choice!

Theories

Hypotheses

Observations

Empirical generalizations

DeductionDeductionInductionInduction

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Deductive theory constructionDeductive theory construction

Pick a topic that interest you and write down your own Pick a topic that interest you and write down your own observations and ideas about it. observations and ideas about it.

Specify the range of phenomena your theory address. Specify the range of phenomena your theory address. Identify and specify your major concepts and variables. Identify and specify your major concepts and variables. Find out what is known (propositions) about the Find out what is known (propositions) about the

relationships among those variable.relationships among those variable. Reason logically from those propositions to the specific Reason logically from those propositions to the specific

topic you are examining. topic you are examining.

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Inductive theory constructionInductive theory construction

Field research--the direct observation of events Field research--the direct observation of events in progress--is frequently used to develop theorin progress--is frequently used to develop theories through observation. ies through observation.

Analysis of secondary data may be another way Analysis of secondary data may be another way to the development of inductive theory. to the development of inductive theory.

Example : choice of accounting firms. Example : choice of accounting firms. Example : Job SearchExample : Job Search

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Combining deduction and inductionCombining deduction and induction

• 1) Encounters a curiosity, doubt, barrier, suspicion, or obstacle.

• 2) Struggles to state the problem: asks questions, contemplates existing knowledge, gathers facts, and moves from an emotional to an intellectual confrontation with the problem.

• 3) Proposes hypotheses to explain the facts that are believed to be logically related to the problem.

• 4) Deduces outcomes or consequences of the hypotheses

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Combining deduction and inductionCombining deduction and induction

• 5) Formulates several rival hypotheses.• 6) Devises and conducts a crucial empirical test with

various possible outcomes, each of which selectively excludes one or more hypotheses.

• 7) Draws a conclusion, an inductive inference, based on acceptance or rejection of the hypotheses.

• 8) Feeds information back into the original problem, modifying it according to the strength of the evidence.

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Overview of the scientific methodOverview of the scientific method

Assessment of relevant existing knowledgeAssessment of relevant existing knowledge Formulation of concepts and propositionsFormulation of concepts and propositions Statement of hypothesesStatement of hypotheses Design the research to test the hypothesesDesign the research to test the hypotheses Acquisition of meaningful empirical dataAcquisition of meaningful empirical data Analysis and evaluation of dataAnalysis and evaluation of data Provide explanation and state new problems Provide explanation and state new problems

raised by the researchraised by the research