Commodities : International Environment & Trading (OFIN 2290A)Franck Pradier Commodities Derivatives Trading February 20081 International Commodities Trading

*History of Commodities Classical civilizations built complex global markets trading gold or silver for spices, cloth, wood and weapons, most of which had standards of quality and timeliness.

The modern commodity markets have their roots in the trading of agricultural products. While wheat and corn, cattle and pigs, were widely traded using standard instruments in the 19th century in the United States, other basic foodstuffs such as soybeans were only added quite recently in most markets. For a commodity market to be established there must be very broad consensus on the variations in the product that make it acceptable for one purpose or another. The economic impact of the development of commodity markets is hard to over-estimate. Through the 19th century "the exchanges became effective spokesmen for, and innovators of, improvements in transportation, warehousing, and financing, which paved the way to expanded interstate and international trade.

Commodity exchanges began in the middle of the 19th century, when businessmen began organizing market forums to make buying and selling of commodities easier. These marketplaces provided a place for buyers and sellers to set the quality, standards, and establish rules of business. By the late 1800s about 1,600 marketplaces had sprung up at ports and railroad stations.

The London Metal Market and Exchange Company was founded in 1877 but the market traces its origins back to 1571 and the opening of the Royal Exchange. At first only copper was traded, lead and zinc were soon added but only gained official trading status in 1920.

The Chicago Board of Trade was founded in 1848. The NYBOT in 1870. The NYMEX in 1882. The COMEX in 1933.

*Commodities World MapUS: Oil, NG (19%), Coal (20%), Ethanol (35%), Gold Silver, Alu, Copper, Lead, Wheat, Corn (41%), Cotton, Soybean (38%), SugarChina: Oil, Coal (42%), Ethanol, Gold, Silver, Base Metals, Steel, Corn, Cotton, Soybean, WheatBrazil: Oil, Ethanol (35%), Alu, Coffee, Soybean, SugarSouth Africa: Oil, Coal, Gold (12%), Platinum (78%)Russia: Oil (11%), NG (22%), Gold (7%), Silver, Alu, NickelAustralia: Oil, Coal, Gold (10%), Silver, Alu, Copper, Lead, NickelIndia: Coal, Ethanol, Alu, Cotton, WheatCanada: Oil, NG (7%), Gold, Silver, LumberSaudi Arabia: Oil (12%), NG (3%)

*Key facts1. Physical Commodity trading represents around :

Where: Crude Oil $3 120 BilRefined Products $3 600 BilElectricity $1 000 BilNatural Gas $ 800 BilCoal $ 700 BilEmissions Eur 48 BilWheat $ 50 BilCotton $ 20 BilSugar$ 40 BilAluminium$ 101 BilCopper $ 132 BilZinc $ 28 Bil Steel $ 700 BilGold$ 82 BilSilver $ 13 Bil

Commodities Derivatives Trading represents in comparison : $ 300 Bil turnover /day

2. Commodities markets have some intrinsic characteristics:

High Volatilities & SpikesLong term trendsSeasonalityHigh speculationPhysical deliveryVery sensitive to International PoliticsPrice not all the time driven by fundamentals like production, stocksEach commodity markets have their own regulation & standards Energy Commodities have a strong interrelationship together

*Trends & Cycles

*Trends & Cycles

*Trends & Fundamentals

*Interrelationships within the energy market EmissionsPowerGasLPGOil ProductsCrude OilRefining MarginBioFuelsCoal

*Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate$/bbl+210% in 15 months

*US Gasoline RBOB+185% in 15 months

*Coal API2+320% in 26 months

*Gold Spot+350% in 6 years & +150% in 8 months

*Corn +250% in 16 months

*Soybean+300% in 15 months

*Wheat+416% in 15 months

*Base MetalsPrice of H.G. Aluminium relative to other base metalsNickelZincAluminium CopperJan 2003 Price = 100

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208.7181381603477.6174393614470.8549222798543.4599156118

204.6545991873476.819158735452.9792746114529.9578059072

202.1425932767475.8980657046449.481865285526.582278481

203.5463612856481.1175928769449.481865285513.9240506329

203.7680088659491.8636782315459.1968911917509.7046413502

203.2508311784482.6527479275455.9585492228530.7172995781

202.364240857483.5738409579450.1295336788519.4092827004

200.9604728482470.9855695425435.2331606218504.641350211

195.4192833395472.2136935831433.9378238342491.9831223629

195.936461027475.5910346945437.8238341969492.8270042194

196.8969338751465.4590113601445.5958549223487.7637130802

195.6409309198458.7043291372439.1191709845474.2616033755

192.2423346878457.4762050967431.3471502591455.6962025316

191.3557443665463.9238563095434.585492228449.7890295359

191.5773919468455.3269880258426.8134715026463.2911392405

188.5482083487448.879336813418.3937823834460.7594936709

187.8832656077413.877801658387.3056994819447.2573839662

182.4898411526430.4574762051397.6683937824423.6286919831

184.3369043221431.0715382254398.3160621762438.8185654008

183.00701884428.3082591342387.9533678756440.5063291139

183.00701884439.0543444888402.2020725389458.9873417722

185.8145548578445.2563708935408.0310880829475.1054852321

187.0705578131449.1863678232405.4404145078469.1983122363

189.7303287772446.7301197421398.3160621762467.5105485232

186.6272626524452.5637089346398.3160621762467.4261603376

186.7750277059454.4058949954393.7823834197469.1983122363

186.9227927595458.090267117402.8497409326477.6371308017

187.9571481345453.7918329751393.7823834197502.9535864979

183.0809013668448.879336813382.1243523316502.9535864979

181.0860731437439.6684065091365.2849740933484.388185654

180.642777983448.2652747928365.932642487460.7594936709

182.4898411526440.4973902364359.4559585492461.1814345992

180.7905430366439.6684065091350.2590673575455.6962025316

179.0912449206459.0113601474357.5129533679451.0548523207

181.6032508312455.6340190359357.5129533679455.6962025316

180.2733653491462.879950875371.7616580311457.3839662447

183.2286664204463.6168252994369.170984456470.8860759494

179.5345400813460.546515198360.103626943482.7004219409

176.9486516439465.7660423703367.8756476684489.4514767932

177.8352419653484.1879029782386.5284974093518.9873417722

183.5241965275484.4949339883376.1658031088570.4641350211

180.4211304027484.1879029782372.9274611399550.2109704641

177.8352419653493.7058642923378.8860103627545.1476793249

177.9830070188490.9425852011378.8860103627558.6497890295

181.4554857776487.5652440897386.6580310881549.3670886076

182.342076099492.4777402518398.3160621762547.6793248945

184.5585519025492.4777402518395.0777202073536.7088607595

186.1839674917498.0042984341401.5544041451514.7679324895

186.7011451792501.0746085355397.0207253886513.0801687764

183.7458441079509.6714768192402.8497409326518.1434599156

183.376431474503.5308566165391.8393782383532.0675105485

179.0173623938504.1449186368395.725388601519.8312236287

179.5345400813488.7933681302382.1243523316529.9578059072

176.3575914296494.9339883328387.9533678756508.8607594937

179.0173623938502.302732576397.0207253886518.1434599156

182.1943110454496.1621123733397.6683937824531.5611814346

182.4898411526495.241019343404.792746114541.7721518987

185.07572959500.4605465152406.7357512953540.0843881857

184.1891392686494.3199263126394.4300518135539.2405063291

184.706316956489.1003991403385.3626943005536.7088607595

185.4451422239482.6527479275384.7150259067536.7088607595

188.4743258219483.2668099478382.7720207254548.5232067511

188.9176209826476.5121277249373.0569948187544.3037974684

186.7011451792478.6613447958377.2020725389535.864978903

186.3317325453472.2136935831367.2279792746535.864978903

184.3369043221476.819158735371.1139896373519.8312236287

185.6667898042483.2668099478375.6476683938532.4894514768

187.5138529738481.7316548971376.2953367876536.7088607595

186.5533801256476.5121277249368.5233160622532.4894514768

186.3317325453474.362910654365.932642487534.1772151899

188.0310306612460.8535462082354.9222797927542.6160337553

187.7355005541456.5551120663358.6787564767546.835443038

193.7199852235454.7129260055352.9792746114544.3037974684

192.8333949021459.3183911575365.2849740933533.3333333333

195.2715182859449.1863678232357.5129533679542.6160337553

193.7938677503442.1246545901359.4559585492542.6160337553

194.3110454378431.6856002456352.3316062176550.6329113924

192.8333949021427.0801350936342.9404145078570.4641350211

189.8780938308425.2379490329343.2642487047568.776371308

190.3952715183437.8262204483351.3601036269565.4008438819

192.7595123753425.483573841335.4922279793564.5569620253

189.804211304432.2996622659328.0440414508535.0210970464

188.4004432952417.2551427694299.2227979275530.8016877637

185.3712596971417.2551427694305.6994818653503.7974683544

187.9571481345400.061406202286.2694300518512.6582278481

186.2578500185403.1317163033289.8316062176501.2658227848

184.706316956412.0356155972296.3082901554493.6708860759

184.3369043221414.4918636782310.8808290155487.3417721519

185.4451422239405.5879643844308.225388601489.4514767932

185.2973771703412.3426466073320.5958549223485.864978903

185.4451422239422.4746699417323.8341968912474.2616033755

185.0018470632429.8434141848332.9015544041456.9620253165

184.706316956417.5621737796322.8626943005459.0717299578

181.677133358411.1145225668312.8238341969452.3206751055

182.6745474695411.1145225668312.8238341969435.4430379747

182.0834872553412.9567086276311.5284974093439.6624472574

181.5663095678424.3168560025316.7098445596436.7088607595

183.5611377909419.0973288302308.9378238342462.447257384

182.0834872553418.7902978201310.8808290155443.8818565401

182.1204285187409.8863985263317.3575129534445.5696202532

180.8644255634401.9035922628307.6424870466443.8818565401

178.9065386036400.6754682223301.4896373057435.864978903

178.278537126390.8504758981296.9559585492448.1012658228

177.6505356483391.7715689285299.8704663212433.7552742616

178.4632434429400.9824992324299.8704663212439.6624472574

179.5345400813402.5176542831300.518134715450.6329113924

178.7587735501420.0184218606312.8238341969445.5696202532

178.943479867423.0580288609319.3005181347456.5400843882

178.6110084965419.4043598403314.1191709845458.2278481013

178.6479497599409.8863985263306.9948186529445.5696202532

177.9830070188414.7988946884317.4870466321443.8818565401

180.1256002955428.001228124333.5492227979459.0717299578

185.07572959424.3168560025323.1865284974488.6075949367

182.1943110454424.3168560025322.5388601036475.9493670886

182.342076099443.9668406509334.1968911917475.9493670886

185.07572959443.3527786306323.8341968912504.5569620253

184.1152567418441.5105925698316.0621761658497.8902953586

183.9674916882448.2652747928309.585492228484.388185654

185.740672331454.4058949954310.2331606218483.5443037975

188.2526782416439.6684065091297.9274611399494.5147679325

183.5980790543429.8434141848295.3367875648480.1687763713

182.4159586258429.2907583666295.9844559586470.8860759494

180.1994828223438.5016886706305.0518134715465.8227848101

181.0121906169421.8606079214288.2124352332485.6540084388

178.0568895456431.0715382254298.5751295337467.5105485232

179.7561876616421.8606079214286.2694300518464.135021097

178.4263021795431.0715382254292.2279792746454.0928270042

181.9726634651431.0715382254295.3367875648459.9156118143

186.1839674917433.5277863064296.6321243523453.5864978903

185.5929072774447.7126189745308.2901554404455.6962025316

195.4192833395439.6684065091304.4041450777468.2700421941

195.0498707056451.3355848941325.7772020725459.9156118143

200.2216475803443.9668406509320.5958549223462.447257384

196.1581086073445.8090267117319.9481865285472.5738396624

196.8969338751437.8262204483306.9948186529457.3839662447

193.7938677503450.1074608535308.9378238342452.3206751055

195.2715182859463.0027632791304.4041450777454.0084388186

198.2268193572472.8277556033317.3575129534463.2911392405

199.1134096786476.819158735318.6528497409477.6371308017

198.7439970447484.3721215843321.8911917098474.2616033755

196.0842260805477.7402517654312.8238341969474.2616033755

198.8178795715471.5996315628304.5336787565472.5738396624

207.3143701515474.6699416641299.8704663212470.8860759494

208.3487255264489.6530549586306.3471502591466.2447257384

208.7181381603502.9167945963316.7098445596466.6666666667

212.1906169191500.4605465152312.1761658031475.9493670886

212.9294421869517.3472520725328.3678756477474.2616033755

217.5840413742511.51366288323.7046632124493.6708860759

215.7369782047503.5308566165323.5751295337479.3248945148

214.4070927226508.1363217685323.1865284974476.8776371308

219.8743997045517.9613140927347.7979274611471.7299578059

228.3708902844522.5667792447361.3989637306492.8270042194

232.2866642039517.6542830826354.9222797927524.8945147679

229.4791281862519.4964691434356.8652849741531.6455696203

Al

Copper

Zinc

Nickel

Stocks

Date (GMT)Last1998199920002001200220032004200520062007

05/01/19981/5/981_19986220251609736.25700972.5771305357996.590909091835284.0909090911228414.130434781435373.86363636689587.5672504.761904762712960.227272727

06/01/19981/6/981_19986242502572415806881.25837691.666666667451561.25889562.512106051411732.5632172.5735182.5769172.5

07/01/19981/7/981_19986231003554048.863636364814766.304347826812779.347826087474862.5974448.751254061.90476191322009.7826087567792.857142857784969.565217391804406.818181818

08/01/19981/8/981_19986214254528038.75800390716615.277777778468753.9473684211059928.571428571222980.681818181179763.0952381546792.857142857753916.666666667816372.368421053

09/01/19981/9/981_19986194255530894.736842105774794.736842105632285.714285714518945.2380952381133910.227272731163204.545454551109157.14285714552832.5763719.047619048833879.761904762

12/01/19981/12/981_19986169256545918.181818182761021.590909091556670.454545455609302.3809523811200163.888888891129090.47619048994892.045454545550000766465.909090909828295.238095238

13/01/19981/13/981_19986177507502842.391304348746017.045454545490369.047619048629628.4090909091260955.434782611235259.7826087909971.590909091529976.190476191742302.380952381832810.227272727

14/01/19981/14/981_19986148008461307.5779317.857142857429267.045454545670202.2727272731294942.857142861326179.76190476799984.523809524515901.136363636703529.545454545832901.136363636

15/01/19981/15/981_19986128509483913.636363636796805.681818182381635.714285714690473.751296120.238095241358314.77272727710565.909090909513259.090909091703953.571428571903952.5

16/01/19981/16/981_199861280010519646.590909091790301.190476191345372.727272727717658.6956521741283305.434782611372335.86956522699319.047619048501491.666666667687038.636363636936413.461538462

19/01/19981/19/981_199861085011534955.952380952784098.863636364328114.772727273695519.3181818181287313.09523811381220720582.954545455554102.272727273680380.681818182

20/01/19981/20/981_199860902512598155.952380952768826.25308498.684210526771277.9411764711250590.789473681402691.30434783703890.476190476635763.75681717.105263158

21/01/19981/21/981_1998606550

22/01/19981/22/981_1998605125

23/01/19981/23/981_1998603100

26/01/19981/26/981_1998601400

27/01/19981/27/981_1998598550

28/01/19981/28/981_1998594375

29/01/19981/29/981_1998591500

30/01/19981/30/981_1998588900

02/02/19982/2/982_1998586075

03/02/19982/3/982_1998584350

04/02/19982/4/982_1998582100

05/02/19982/5/982_1998579725

06/02/19982/6/982_1998577600

09/02/19982/9/982_1998574900

10/02/19982/10/982_1998572775

11/02/19982/11/982_1998570425

12/02/19982/12/982_1998568600

13/02/19982/13/982_1998567575

16/02/19982/16/982_1998567175

17/02/19982/17/982_1998569450

18/02/19982/18/982_1998567875

19/02/19982/19/982_1998568200

20/02/19982/20/982_1998568350

23/02/19982/23/982_1998570075

24/02/19982/24/982_1998569250

25/02/19982/25/982_1998570650

26/02/19982/26/982_1998567750

27/02/19982/27/982_1998565400

02/03/19983/2/983_1998566725

03/03/19983/3/983_1998564700

04/03/19983/4/983_1998561400

05/03/19983/5/983_1998561025

06/03/19983/6/983_1998559475

09/03/19983/9/983_1998560750

10/03/19983/10/983_1998560475

11/03/19983/11/983_1998557600

12/03/19983/12/983_1998555275

13/03/19983/13/983_1998554425

16/03/19983/16/983_1998556125

17/03/19983/17/983_1998552450

18/03/19983/18/983_1998553000

19/03/19983/19/983_1998553125

20/03/19983/20/983_1998551025

23/03/19983/23/983_1998548700

24/03/19983/24/983_1998547250

25/03/19983/25/983_1998545800

26/03/19983/26/983_1998545175

27/03/19983/27/983_1998545050

30/03/19983/30/983_1998544950

31/03/19983/31/983_1998544575

01/04/19984/1/984_1998545650

02/04/19984/2/984_1998543550

03/04/19984/3/984_1998540750

06/04/19984/6/984_1998537375

07/04/19984/7/984_1998535650