19 October 2009Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants11 2010-2020: A NEW DECADE OF CHANGES IN...

19 October 2009 19 October 2009 Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants 1111

2010-2020: A NEW DECADE 2010-2020: A NEW DECADE OF CHANGES IN REFRIGERATION AND OF CHANGES IN REFRIGERATION AND AC AC

Lambert Kuijpers

Technical University,

Eindhoven, NL

UNEP TOC Refrigeration, AC and Heat Pumps

Atmosphere 2009 Atmosphere 2009

““Natural Refrigerants” Natural Refrigerants”

BrusselsBrussels

19-20 October 200919-20 October 2009


The increased interest in “natural The increased interest in “natural refrigerants”refrigerants” Refrigerants such as ammonia, hydrocarbons, ethers,

carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide etc. were the ones considered before the synthetic fluorocarbon refrigerants

For CFCs, refrigeration and AC considered HCFC and HFC (3rd generation) refrigerants as replacements; the chemical industry now develops low-GWP HFCs (the “4th generation”)

The IIR started meetings in 1994-1996 on “natural refrigerants”, that became “Gustav Lorentzen” conferences

UNEP TEAP reported on the potential of HFCs-PFCs in 1998 In 1999 a so called “IPCC TEAP Joint Expert Meeting” took

place in Petten, NL, which considered both climate and ozone layer protection; it was a meeting where there was substantial discussion on non-fluorocarbon refrigerants


The UNFCCC COP-8 in New Delhi, 2002The UNFCCC COP-8 in New Delhi, 2002

In 2002, at the Climate Meeting in New Delhi, IPCC and TEAP agreed in principle to do a Special Report on “Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System” (afterwards officially agreed at MP MOP-14, Rome)

Published in 2005, after government approvement in Addis Abeba, the SR looked at HFCs and HFC replacements, it made first good estimates of banks, it studied production trends for synthetic refrigerants and mentioned the increasing potential for low GWP (natural non-fluorocarbon, other) refrigerants

In principle, the SR set the scene for Decisions XVIII/12, XIX/6, as well as the decisions XX/7 and XX/8 on banks and emissions, and on HCFC and HFC alternatives, respectively


Climate componentClimate component

This IPCC TEAP Special Report 2005 --as well as its Supplement Report with specific data on banks and emissions-- really introduced the climate component (“the climate aspect”) into many of the discussions and decisions under the Montreal Protocol

This is a good reason for describing here the results This is a good reason for describing here the results of the work requested to the Assessment Panel in of the work requested to the Assessment Panel in various Montreal Protocol decisions, for elaborating various Montreal Protocol decisions, for elaborating on the climate component and its relation to natural on the climate component and its relation to natural refrigerantsrefrigerants


OutlineOutline

Introduction Decision XIX/6, the accelerated HCFC phase-out Banks and emissions Decision XX/7 on banks Decision XX/8 on alternatives The proposed HFC Amendment to the Protocol Future outlook Final comments to natural refrigerant applications


Climate impact of ODS avoided in 2 waysClimate impact of ODS avoided in 2 ways

By bank managementBy bank management Montreal Protocol Parties are currently giving consideration to Montreal Protocol Parties are currently giving consideration to

means of managing banksmeans of managing banks Bank management is expensive and may exceed available Bank management is expensive and may exceed available

grant-funding from MLF and other sources, in many casesgrant-funding from MLF and other sources, in many cases Leveraging carbon finance may be an important component Leveraging carbon finance may be an important component

in dealing with banks in dealing with banks By accelerating the phasing out of HCFC useBy accelerating the phasing out of HCFC use Decision XIX/6 provides the framework for doing this Decision XIX/6 provides the framework for doing this Both ozone and climate benefits can result from this action Both ozone and climate benefits can result from this action Climate impact much depends on the choice of the Climate impact much depends on the choice of the

alternativealternative ……so what does Decision XIX/6 say about climate?so what does Decision XIX/6 say about climate?


Decision XIX/6Decision XIX/6

‘…… ‘…… encourages encourages PartiesParties to promote the selection of to promote the selection of alternatives to HCFCs that minimise environmental alternatives to HCFCs that minimise environmental impacts, in particular impacts on climate, as well as impacts, in particular impacts on climate, as well as meeting other health, safety and economic meeting other health, safety and economic considerations’ considerations’

‘‘To agree that the To agree that the Executive CommitteeExecutive Committee,, when when developing and applying funding criteria for projects and developing and applying funding criteria for projects and programmes [….] give(s) priority to cost-effective programmes [….] give(s) priority to cost-effective projects and programmes which focus inter alia on : projects and programmes which focus inter alia on : Substitutes and alternatives that minimise other Substitutes and alternatives that minimise other

impacts on the environment, including on the climate, impacts on the environment, including on the climate, taking into account global warming potential, energy taking into account global warming potential, energy use and other relevant factorsuse and other relevant factors


Giving priority … what does it mean ?Giving priority … what does it mean ?

This could be “giving priority” in terms of This could be “giving priority” in terms of timing, timing, funding or overall selection funding or overall selection

Prioritising Prioritising timingtiming only works if the technologies of only works if the technologies of choice are already available choice are already available

Prioritisation of Prioritisation of fundingfunding would mean that more would mean that more funds would go to projects with climate benefits funds would go to projects with climate benefits

However, does this mean conversely that less funds However, does this mean conversely that less funds should go to projects with climate dis-benefits? should go to projects with climate dis-benefits?

Prioritising Prioritising in overall selectionin overall selection could mean that could mean that there are technologies that would not be there are technologies that would not be supportedsupported


Back to Decision XIX/6Back to Decision XIX/6

Climate benefit in Decision XIX/6 is an important criterion In how far can the climate benefit be realised by natural

refrigerants, related to superiour or high energy efficiency, low GWP, and acceptable costs for conversion projects for developing countries (supported by the Multilateral Fund)

Developments for low GWP HFC refrigerants are continuing

In how far can climate benefit be better realised (given the above conditions) by natural refrigerants compared to new --and further to be developed-- low GWP fluorocarbon (HFC or HFO) chemicals ?

At this stage there are clearly still uncertainties


Emissions and ConsumptionEmissions and Consumption

Control of consumption Control of emission (Montreal Protocol) (Kyoto Protocol)

Controlling commercial availability Providing incentives and

of newly produced material monitoring to reduce emissions vis-à-vis other GHG

CFC X HCFC X HFC X ODS emissions from banks are not controlled !


Bank sizes foams and refrigeration and Bank sizes foams and refrigeration and ACAC

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2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015

Banks by Sector

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CO

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q)

Other

Foams

Mobile AirConditioning

Stationary AirConditioning

Refrigeration


Banks: observationsBanks: observations

CFC banks in countries are already small except for CFC banks in countries are already small except for some refrigeration sectors in developing countriessome refrigeration sectors in developing countries

HCFC banks are still to a large degree “in operation” HCFC banks are still to a large degree “in operation” (and replacement will come in due time)(and replacement will come in due time)

Foams banks are huge in particular in developed Foams banks are huge in particular in developed countries, but difficult to reach (buildings)countries, but difficult to reach (buildings)

Although the potential is large, more than 20 Gt CO2 Although the potential is large, more than 20 Gt CO2 from the point of view of climate relevance, from the point of view of climate relevance,

In reality the chance of avoiding of emissions from In reality the chance of avoiding of emissions from banks may be much smaller; also related to banks may be much smaller; also related to (un)successful recovery(un)successful recovery

Destruction costs related to specific efforts, Destruction costs related to specific efforts, infrastructure... infrastructure...


Banks: Decision XX/7 reportBanks: Decision XX/7 report

The amount of material in the bank will at a given The amount of material in the bank will at a given moment be released to the waste stream, this over a moment be released to the waste stream, this over a number of years, which could exceed 15 years (=lifetime number of years, which could exceed 15 years (=lifetime of products)of products)

Foam in building applications difficult to reach, at high Foam in building applications difficult to reach, at high efforteffort

There is a significant climate impact in the refrigerant There is a significant climate impact in the refrigerant releases in both developed and developing countriesreleases in both developed and developing countries

Refrigerators (and their foams containing ODS) are Refrigerators (and their foams containing ODS) are important, due to the high numbers in operation globallyimportant, due to the high numbers in operation globally

However, only part of the emissions from the bank can However, only part of the emissions from the bank can be avoided at relatively high cost; XX/7 reports give be avoided at relatively high cost; XX/7 reports give figures for the costs involved (order of US$ 1-3 figures for the costs involved (order of US$ 1-3 billion/year globally)billion/year globally)


The banks issue in futureThe banks issue in future

Decision XX/7 work concentrated on a study of ODS banks In future, the banks that are released to the waste stream

will increasingly contain HFC substances In the numbers derived (20 Gt CO2 eq.) this HFC content

was already considered If the capture of emissions (avoiding of emissions) will cost

large amounts of money, which part could potentially be invested in converting to refrigerants that do not need emission avoiding such as ODS and HFCs for climate reasons ?

Could (part of) this future cost to society in either developed or developing countries be separated and invested upfront ?

Does this give an extra opportunity to natural refrigerants ?


Decision XX/8 on alternativesDecision XX/8 on alternatives

Montreal Protocol Parties requested an overview of alternatives to HCFCs and HFCs in Decision XX/8

A long presentation was done in Geneva in July 2009 All sectors (not only refrigeration and AC) were

highlighted, however, most of the attention was paid to all the subsectors of refrigeration and AC

Some of the statements made for the different subsectors in refrigeration and AC follow below


Decision XX/8 (2)Decision XX/8 (2)

Domestic RefrigerationDomestic Refrigeration: HC-600a use expanding, : HC-600a use expanding, and manufacturing is changing from HFC-134a to HC-and manufacturing is changing from HFC-134a to HC-600a600a in Japan, USA, other countries change driven by lower GWP, possibility of carbon credits,

governmental incentives and restrictions Commercial RefrigerationCommercial Refrigeration: i: indirect systems using

CO2 as a heat transfer fluid have been developed, as well as CO2, HC and NH3 and HFC blends are being used in Europe as primary refrigerants since more than 10 years and are currently expanding from a small percentage of the European installed base



Commercial RefrigerationCommercial Refrigeration: small vending units : small vending units increasingly apply hydrocarbons or CO2. A definite increasingly apply hydrocarbons or CO2. A definite choice for the future concerning low GWP choice for the future concerning low GWP refrigerants for (large) centralised systems has not refrigerants for (large) centralised systems has not yet been made; the technical solutions are still yet been made; the technical solutions are still under evaluationunder evaluation

Large size refrigerationLarge size refrigeration: there is widespread use : there is widespread use of ammonia, as well as emergent use of carbon of ammonia, as well as emergent use of carbon dioxide where ammonia is not suitable. HCFCs were dioxide where ammonia is not suitable. HCFCs were used in some markets, but HFCs have not been used in some markets, but HFCs have not been readily accepted as an alternative due to cost and readily accepted as an alternative due to cost and reliability issuesreliability issues

19 October 2009 19 October 2009 Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants 181814 July 2009 14 July 2009 1818


Unitary ACUnitary AC: HFC refrigerants, the R-410A and R-407C : HFC refrigerants, the R-410A and R-407C blends, have been dominant replacements for HCFC-22 in all blends, have been dominant replacements for HCFC-22 in all categories of unitary air conditioners. Hydrocarbons have categories of unitary air conditioners. Hydrocarbons have been used in some applications; including lower capacity been used in some applications; including lower capacity portable room units and split system air conditionersportable room units and split system air conditioners

Positive displacement chillersPositive displacement chillers (screw-scroll-reciprocating) (screw-scroll-reciprocating) R-717 (ammonia) is used today in chillers, particularly in Europe. R-R-717 (ammonia) is used today in chillers, particularly in Europe. R-

717 chillers with heat recovery features offer high efficiency717 chillers with heat recovery features offer high efficiency Hydrocarbons are used today in chillers, particularly in EuropeHydrocarbons are used today in chillers, particularly in Europe Carbon dioxide (R-744) has a relatively low energy efficiency for Carbon dioxide (R-744) has a relatively low energy efficiency for

most chiller applications. In cool climates such as Northern Europe, most chiller applications. In cool climates such as Northern Europe, R-744 chillers are accepted as viable alternatives to HFC chillersR-744 chillers are accepted as viable alternatives to HFC chillers


Decision XX/8: Mobile Air-conditioningDecision XX/8: Mobile Air-conditioning

The EC Mobile Air Conditioning regulation (refrigerants with GWP <150 in new model cars as of 2011, and in all new cars in 2017) has been an important driver

Status 2008-09: two candidates are top of the list: carbon dioxide and HFC-1234yf, an unsaturated HFC (HFO) Standpoint of the automotive industry in Europe has always

been that they would be “going for” CO2; US industry is silent US EPA now asks for Public Comments to SNAP approval of

HFC-1234yf; this while more low-GWP HFCs are being developed (HFC-1234ze, HFC-1243zf…)

The necessary MAC choice is still unclear; if HFC-1234yf gets a substantial part of the MAC market it will have further impacts!



Which boundary conditions, or chances do exist (or do they not exist ?) for natural refrigerants compared to other low GWP synthetic fluorocarbon refrigerants in replacing fluorocarbon refrigerants, the HCFC/HFCs, throughout all subsectors ?

How and where can these chances be influenced ?


HFC HFC Amendment proposed by Island States, N.-Amendment proposed by Island States, N.-AmericaAmerica

To add HFCs with their GWPs in an Annex F to the To add HFCs with their GWPs in an Annex F to the Montreal Protocol Montreal Protocol

To add GWPs to the HCFCs already covered under the To add GWPs to the HCFCs already covered under the ProtocolProtocol

To apply the concept of GWP-t, comparable to ODP-t, To apply the concept of GWP-t, comparable to ODP-t, for the consideration of control schedules (on the basis for the consideration of control schedules (on the basis of the usual country Article 7 reporting) and requiring of the usual country Article 7 reporting) and requiring reporting of HFC production and consumptionreporting of HFC production and consumption

To establish a baseline for controls consisting of HCFC To establish a baseline for controls consisting of HCFC + HFC consumption in a given year (2004-2006, 2005)+ HFC consumption in a given year (2004-2006, 2005)

Timelines are still optionalTimelines are still optional


Amendment proposedAmendment proposed Defines a phase-down schedule for the developed Defines a phase-down schedule for the developed

countries as of [2013] (years and percentages in countries as of [2013] (years and percentages in brackets), with some remaining HFC consumption brackets), with some remaining HFC consumption after [2033], in analogy with US law circulating after [2033], in analogy with US law circulating

Defines the same type of schedule for the Defines the same type of schedule for the developing countries with years and percentages developing countries with years and percentages less clear, with some remaining HFC consumption less clear, with some remaining HFC consumption after [2043] after [2043]

Inserts an emissions clause (emissions limit) for HFC-Inserts an emissions clause (emissions limit) for HFC-23 from HCFC-22 production at a level of 0.1% of the 23 from HCFC-22 production at a level of 0.1% of the HCFC-22 quantity producedHCFC-22 quantity produced


HCFC and HFC consumption levels in developed countries follow ing the proposed Amendment

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2005 2009 2010 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037 2041 2045 2049

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HCFC dvlpd

HFC dvlpd


HCFC and HFC consumption in developing countries follow ing the proposed Amendment

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HCFC dvlping

HFC dvlping


ObservationsObservations

HCFC schedules are already fixed for phase-out HCFC schedules are already fixed for phase-out In both developed and developing countriesIn both developed and developing countriesThe proposed HFC amendment does allow (some) growthThe proposed HFC amendment does allow (some) growth Dependent on the consumption of HFCs this phase-out Dependent on the consumption of HFCs this phase-out

schedule will allow for some further growth in HFC schedule will allow for some further growth in HFC consumption until [2013] (developed), or [2017] (developing)consumption until [2013] (developed), or [2017] (developing)

As of these dates HFC consumption has to decrease As of these dates HFC consumption has to decrease Emissions control may-must or will play a more important role Emissions control may-must or will play a more important role

in future (are drivers such that it will be more successful ?)in future (are drivers such that it will be more successful ?) Can further HFC consumption decreases only be done by Can further HFC consumption decreases only be done by

allowing alternatives to high GWP chemicals such as “natural allowing alternatives to high GWP chemicals such as “natural refrigerants”, but also low GWP HFCs (in which sub-sectors) ?refrigerants”, but also low GWP HFCs (in which sub-sectors) ?


Observations related to the HFC Observations related to the HFC AmendmentAmendment

Will or can the developed countries make the change to Will or can the developed countries make the change to avoid the high GWP HFC route if they are still massively avoid the high GWP HFC route if they are still massively introducing HFCs in retrofits and in new equipment ?introducing HFCs in retrofits and in new equipment ?

HFC controls prohibit funding developing country conversions HFC controls prohibit funding developing country conversions away from HFCs via CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) away from HFCs via CDM (Clean Development Mechanism)

Will developing countries make principal steps when a lot of Will developing countries make principal steps when a lot of funding issues are not cleared (including funding conversions funding issues are not cleared (including funding conversions from HCFC to HFC), to non-HFC climate positive alternatives ?from HCFC to HFC), to non-HFC climate positive alternatives ?

There are differences in opinion regarding the funding There are differences in opinion regarding the funding principles for developing countries between several principles for developing countries between several developed country blocksdeveloped country blocks


Questions developing countries Questions developing countries How can the question of funding a conversion that would How can the question of funding a conversion that would

avoid HFCs be resolved if rules for HCFC funding (following avoid HFCs be resolved if rules for HCFC funding (following conventional approaches) have still not been agreed in conventional approaches) have still not been agreed in practice for HCFC Phase-out Plans in developing countries ?practice for HCFC Phase-out Plans in developing countries ?

This implies a conversion to different approaches, equipment This implies a conversion to different approaches, equipment and products, with a better climate performance, but does and products, with a better climate performance, but does this also imply that higher investments are allowed in this also imply that higher investments are allowed in future ?future ?

An important question is whether Article 5 countries will sign An important question is whether Article 5 countries will sign up to a regulation that would create a precedent for all other up to a regulation that would create a precedent for all other greenhouse gases (CO2), where they have agreed to not greenhouse gases (CO2), where they have agreed to not consider any binding regime and percentages (now)consider any binding regime and percentages (now)

Progress only in close co-operation between Protocols, if at Progress only in close co-operation between Protocols, if at allall


Concluding observation HFC Concluding observation HFC AmendmentAmendment

How much time will Montreal Protocol Parties need for How much time will Montreal Protocol Parties need for reaching whatever agreement on this Amendment ? reaching whatever agreement on this Amendment ?

In how far will the Copenhagen negotiations outcome In how far will the Copenhagen negotiations outcome (after the Montreal Protocol MOP-21 discussions in (after the Montreal Protocol MOP-21 discussions in November) have an impact on the type of agreement November) have an impact on the type of agreement that can be reached ?that can be reached ?

Does this give extra opportunities for the application Does this give extra opportunities for the application of low GWP refrigerants, natural refrigerants ?of low GWP refrigerants, natural refrigerants ?


Future outlookFuture outlook

Decision XIX/6 gives an extra stimulus to the possible Decision XIX/6 gives an extra stimulus to the possible application of natural refrigerants - if they are available application of natural refrigerants - if they are available (addressing safety and health) and at acceptable costs (addressing safety and health) and at acceptable costs

The reports for Decision XX/7 on banks and emissions The reports for Decision XX/7 on banks and emissions mention large amounts of funding required for climate mention large amounts of funding required for climate mitigation; an extra opportunity for natural mitigation; an extra opportunity for natural refrigerants ?refrigerants ?

Decision XX/8 mentions that natural refrigerants are Decision XX/8 mentions that natural refrigerants are used; can their use be expanded ?used; can their use be expanded ?

If the HFC Amendment would be accepted; what does it If the HFC Amendment would be accepted; what does it mean for natural refrigerants versus other “low-GWP” ?mean for natural refrigerants versus other “low-GWP” ?


Final commentFinal comment

At this moment there are many things moving in the At this moment there are many things moving in the conversion away from HCFCs and possibly from HFCsconversion away from HCFCs and possibly from HFCs

Many of the elements currently considered Many of the elements currently considered internationally imply that significant changes can be internationally imply that significant changes can be expected in refrigeration and AC in the 2010-2020 expected in refrigeration and AC in the 2010-2020 decadedecade

A MAC sector decision may have large consequences A MAC sector decision may have large consequences Is this altogether a clear opportunity for increasing the Is this altogether a clear opportunity for increasing the

share of the natural refrigerants in many sub-sectors share of the natural refrigerants in many sub-sectors globally ?globally ?


Thank you !Thank you !

19 October 2009Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants11 2010-2020: A NEW DECADE OF CHANGES IN...

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