17.181F16 Sustainability: Lecture Slides 8 - Climate ... › courses › political-science ›...
Transcript of 17.181F16 Sustainability: Lecture Slides 8 - Climate ... › courses › political-science ›...
` 17.181/17.182 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Week 8 Outline Climate Change & Sustainable Development
1. THE CONTEXT
2. ASPECTS of CLIMATE CHANGE 3. POLICY ISSUES GOVERNANCE ANALYSIS
1
` 17.181/17.182 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Week 8 Outline Climate Change & Sustainable Development
1. THE CONTEXT
2. ASPECTS of CLIMATE CHANGE 3. POLICY ISSUES GOVERNANCE ANALYSIS
2
The Context • State sustainability in various parts of the world is
a source of threat to national security - Every case is unique; but there are common processes
• The global system is increasingly volatile – There are more actors, agents, countries, firms, institutions, opportunities, challenges … and greater interdependence
• This new global volatility creates greater interdependence – more mutual sensitivity and mutual vulnerability
– more potentials for loss of control – but more opportunities
• Need for better preparedness, some examples: – “We learned that the institutions charted with protecting
…national security did not understand how grave this threat can be, and did not adjust their policies, plans, and practices to deter or defeat it” [9/11 Commission Report]
3
Some Legacies of 20th C.
• More People
• More Countries
• More IGO’s and NGO’s
• More Trade
• More Technology
• More Energy Use
• CO2 – GHGs - Pollution
4
New York Times, February 10, 2008. © The New York Times Company. All rights reserved. This content is excludedfrom our Creative Commons license. For more information, see https://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/.
5
Easton, David. A System of Analysis of Political Life. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 1965. © John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved. This content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. For more information, see https://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/.
6
State Sustainability
• The sustainability of a state is a process States can be at different stages of ‘sustainability’ –
depending on the measures of performance reflecting
the ratio of loads to capacity. Various variables
combine to generate loads & reflect capacity.
• ‘Good’ state changes & ‘Bad’ state changes ‘Bad’ changes include Somalia, Ruwanda, Burundi.
‘Good’ changes include Czechoslovakia and USSR
• Multiple modes of fragility, different paths
and ‘end points’ We need a strategy to model complex state stability
in policy relevant terms
7
The Extended Enterprise
• By Definition: - Operates cross boundaries and cross jurisdictions
- Functions at various levels of economic and
political organization
- Encounters uncertainties and unanticipated conditions
• By Choice:
- Prefers to reduce uncertainty
- Seeks certain stability in business environment
- Remains hostage to the realities of host states
• By Necessity:
- Requires good assessments of exposure to potential risk
- Calculates risks to global volatility and host state stability
-Needs robust and reliable estimates of stability
conditions 8
` 17.181/17.182 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Week 8 Outline Climate Change & Sustainable Development
1. THE CONTEXT
2. ASPECTS of CLIMATE CHANGE 3. POLICY ISSUES, GOVERNANCE & ANALYSIS
9
© Verisk Maplecroft. All rights reserved. This content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. For more information, see https://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/.
10
© United Nations Environmental Program. All rights reserved. This content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. For more information, see https://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/.
11
© Center for Sustainabilty and the Global Environment (SAGE). All rights reserved. This content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. For more information, see https://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/.
12
Matrix of Possible Climate Change/Security Interactions over Time- Strong Interactions
Direct impact Indirect Consequences Slow-onset
Water Food Health Mega-projects Disasters Bio-fuel Sea level
Short term
(2007-2020)
Local
conflict
over water
Failure to
meet
MDGs
Failure to
meet
MDGs
Long history of
development-
induced
displacement from
1950s
Nation states
begin to lose
credibility due
to inability to
prevent large
disasters
Isolated
food – fuel
competition
& price
spikes
Small number
of
displacements
Medium term
(2021-2050)
Increased
local &
some
internationa
l conflict
over water
Significant
displaceme
nt due to
famine
Interacts
with food
production
problems
Displacement of
rural poor due to
CDM & large scale
dams & other state
based mitigation &
adaptation
projects
Significant
political unrest
due to failure of
DRR &
inadequate
recovery in
many countries
Food-fuel
competition
increases &
biodiversity
erosion
Increasing
displacement
& national/
international
tension
Long term
(2051-2100)
Major
internationa
l conflict
over water
Major
displaceme
nt &
political
upheaval
Major
displacem
ent due to
epidemics
Major urban
upheaval and
other political fall
out from mega-
project
displacement
Major upheaval
with
international
implications
due to
unattended
weather
catastrophes
Major
discontent
due to
food-fuel
competition
Major
international
tensions due to
population
displacement
Wisner, Ben, Maureen Fordham, et al. "Climate Change and Human Security." April 15, 2007. © Ben Wisner, Maureen Fordham, et al. All rights reserved. This content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. For more information, see https://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/.
13
Torrance, Wendy E. F. "Science or Salience: Building an Agenda for Climate Change." In Global Environmental Assessments:
Information and Influence. Edited by Ronald B. Mitchell, William C. Clark, et al. © MIT Press. All rights reserved. This content
is excluded from our Creative Commons license. For more information, see https://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/.
14
"Changing Climate." National Geographic, October 2007. © National Geographic Partners. All rights reserved. This content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. For more information, see https://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/.
15
"Changing Climate." National Geographic, October 2007. © National Geographic Partners. All rights reserved. This content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. For more information, see https://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/.
16
Climate Change –
Potential Effects
• Differential impacts within & across countries
– more burdens on the poor everywhere – more social cleavages
• Erosion of governance & institutions
– Loss of law and order – Growth of individual ‘self-help’ actions
N. Choucri 17
Climate Change Index (CCI)
for 189 countries
• The 10 countries of highest overall risk
account for 2% of GHG Emission
Djibouti, Egypt, Pakistan, Cuba, Iraq,
Morocco, Dominica, Antigua and
Barbuda, Mozambique and Somalia.
• Of the 31 countries with extreme risk, only 3
are industrial
Netherlands, Canada & USA
The index consists of 3 equal components; (i) Coastal exposure; (ii) Inland exposure
(iii) Health exposure. Socio-economic or other impacts not covered/. Source: Mapplecroft Maps N. Choucri 18
N. Choucri
Distribution of CCI Impacts
© Verisk Maplecroft. All rights reserved. This content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. For more information, see https://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/.
19
Global sea levels rise as oceans warm & sea ice melts
– uninhabitable conditions
Increase in rainfall intensity will increase tropical storms
– more risk of weather-relate disasters
– Infectious disease
Infrastructure must adapt to these changes
– more social & economic pressures
– more stresses on resources N. Choucri
Some Potential Dangers
20
The Dark Side: Countries at Risk of Conflict - 2005
Colors: High-Intermediate-Low Triangle: Significant terrorist risk
© Verisk Maplecroft. All rights reserved. This content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. For more information, see https://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/.
21
` 17.181/17.182 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Week 8 Outline Climate Change & Sustainable Development
1. THE CONTEXT
2. ASPECTS of CLIMATE CHANGE 3. POLICY ISSUES, GOVERNANCE, & ANALYSIS
22
New Global Agenda
• Salience of Environment –
Growth in Environmental Treaties
• Framing New Objectives
“Sustainable Development”
• Re-Visiting the Fundamentals
Equity Matters– not only efficiency
• Addressing New Realities
Connecting Climate Change & Sustainability Issues
23
DE-MASSIFICATION DE-SPACIALIZATION DE-CENTRLIZATION DIS-AGGREGATION
DE-NATIONALIZATION DIS-INTERMEDIATION
ONCE MORE: Requisites for Sustainable Development
Brown, John Seely, and Paul Duguid. The Social Life of Information. Harvard Business Review Press, 2017. © Harvard Business Review Press. All rights reserved. This content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. For more information, see https://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/.
24
MIT OpenCourseWarehttps://ocw.mit.edu
17.181 / 17.182 Sustainability: Political Economy, Science, and PolicyFall 2016
For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: https://ocw.mit.edu/terms.