17th July 2007

Brendan Connor, Cenex

Pollution Control - Meeting the Emissions Challenge:Towards a New Partnership between Local Authorities,

Transport Operators and the Commercial Vehicle Industry

Introduction

• Cenex role– Change agent role aiding market transformation and UK

supply chain development through projects driving innovation and through Knowledge Transfer Network

– Projects aid technology advancement through demonstration and public technology procurement

– Pathways to CO2 reduction being studied and then showcased (helping overcome barriers to future uptake)

• Benefits of Cenex approach– Evidence based analysis– Pragmatic solutions for individual sectors– Parallel experiences and evidence– Maintain technology options– Learning through UK-based capabilities development

Background

• Low Carbon Transport Innovation Strategy / E4Tech reports

• CO2 road transport sector contributions

• Vehicle parc and historic rate of change• Ownership pattern• Existing regulatory framework

But, we must remember that there are no specific targets set for road transport CO2 reduction.

Road Transport CO2 Reduction Objectives

• Different approaches can be adopted– Fast-track for CO2 reduction approach

• Fastest rate and quantitative reduction in CO2

• Lowest expenditure of public funds• Minimal invention new fiscal / regulatory framework within UK• Lowest technology risk• Minimum supply chain dislocation• Maximum market imperative to switch to ‘low CO2’

– Market intervention focused on long-term targets• Aim at best potential technologies (hydrogen fuel cells, second

generation bio-fuels and hybrids, etc) and seek to deliver against final target

• Greater technology risk-reward• Supply chain support and market assistance needed to establish new

markets• Downside that two-tier end market of new “low” emitters + old “high”

emitters

UK Vehicle Parc Profile

Total UK Parc*

Turnover cycle

(yrs)*

MtC Avg.**

CO2 vehicle

(t/v)**

CO2 emission range

Ownership Fragmentation

Cars 30.8M

13.4 19.1 0.62 HIGH HIGH

LGV 3.4M 12.8 4.6 1.35 MED MED

HGV 593K 13.2 7.8 13.1 MED LOW

Buses 102K 16.6 1.0 9.8 LOW V.LOW

Motorcycles etc.

1.5M 15.2 MED HIGH

SPV 429K 17.8 MED MED

*Source SMMT **Source LCTIS / DTI

Priorities In Road Transport CO2 Reduction

• HGV #1• LCV #2• Buses #3

…Cars distant #4

Heavy Goods Vehicles

• Priority development of CNG / methane infrastructure• CNG / methane infrastructure exists – it’s just not connected

to the road network• Contribution of bio-methane grid injection should be

recognised• European experience (Italy, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland)• Replacement cycle – 25% reduction in total road transport

CO2 by 2025 in two steps

– Diesel to CNG yields up to 3.4 tonnes per vehicle reduction – CNG to bio-methane yields up to 9.7 tonnes* per vehicle

reduction

* Blend and process dependent

Light Goods Vehicle

• Fastest growth sector in vehicles/mileage• 20% growth in 5 years, and higher individual average

mileages• Low CO2 technology options

– Use CNG from HGV infrastructure– Diesel electric hybrids (technology share with car sector)– Bio-diesel from certified non-food / non environmental

impact sources– Electric for urban use

• Potential to reduce CO2 from 4.6 MtC to 3.0 MtC* (5% of total parc CO2)

* Joint Research Council, May 2006.

Buses

• Bus growth within public transport strategy• BSOG• Range of technology options

– CNG

– Diesel-electric hybrid

– Fuel cell

– Electric (inc. trolley bus)

• Public procurement technology pull-through

• CO2 reduction potential of 1% of total vehicle parc CO2

Cars

• EU wide end of ‘voluntarism’• EU / UK regulatory framework and consistency • UK car parc near saturation point• Existing UK fiscal framework based on VED and fuel duty• Technology options

– Improved petrol and diesel engine efficiencies– Weight reduction and reduced rolling resistance – Petrol / Diesel electric hybrid– Biofuels– Electric

• If average new car CO2 achieved 113g/km by 2025, cars would deliver a 9% reduction in road transport CO2.

Road Transport CO2 Reduction Summary

• Road transport CO2 at 2007 = 32.5 MtC• By 2025 each road transport segment potential

reduction in 2007 levels is– HGV’s 25%

– LCV’s 5%

– Buses 1%

– Cars 9%

• 40% reduction in road transport CO2 at 2007 levels

UK Supply Chain

• CNG fuel switch has minimal impact on UK powertrain industry

• Electric vehicles are a growing area of UK capability – risk and opportunity exists in energy storage technology

• Diesel electric hybrid for cars/vans remains an unexploited opportunity

• Hydrogen and fuel cells remain a longer-term option for vehicle propulsion, but other road transport opportunities exist e.g. refrigerated trailers

Summary

• Differing routes to CO2 reduction– Low risk route to 40% road transport CO2 reduction by 2025

outlined

– Higher risk approaches exist using hydrogen\fuel cells, etc

• No silver bullets, sector specific approaches should be favoured– Significant opportunity for HGV CO2 reduction

– Cars left to EU in short-term, need for full range of low carbon technologies (and infrastructure support) in the long-term

• Critical role for technology demonstration and public technology procurement to establish validity of pathways and encourage industry and end user investment

Thank you for your attention

www.cenex.co.uk