16 April 2020 Results Review 4QFY20 Wipro - 4QFY20... · Amit Chandra . [email protected]...

16 April 2020 Results Review 4QFY20

Wipro

Uncertainty persists We maintain REDUCE rating on Wipro based on lower than expected revenue and margin performance. Covid-19 related global slowdown will lead to cut in discretionary spending, pricing discounts and postponement of large deals wins. Headwinds in BFSI (Medium term), stress in Manufacturing (Auto) and ENU (Energy) will offset the improving outlook in Healthcare and Communication. The company has not provided for 1QFY21E guidance, citing uncertainty. We cut our EPS estimates by 0.9/1.5% for FY21/22E. Our TP of Rs 185 is based on 11x FY22 EPS.

Revenue in 4Q stood at USD 2,074mn, +0.4/2.6% QoQ/YoY CC (vs. est. of USD 2,086mn). Growth in 4Q was supported by uptick in ENU (12.8% of rev), Healthcare (13.5% of rev) and Technology (12.8% of rev), while Consumer vertical (16.8% of rev) declined due to Covid impact. BFSI (30.4% of rev) growth decelerated to -1.3% YoY (vs 15.9% YoY CC in 4QFY19), impacted by slowdown in large European banks, Capital market sub-segment and Covid-19 impact.

Growth slowed down in NorthAm (+3.1% YoY CC) while Europe growth was soft (+1.9% YoY CC). Wipro has not given guidance for 1Q due to global uncertainty. The impact of Covid-19 in the quarter was ~USD 14-16mn (3 weeks), which is 0.7-0.8% of revenue. USD rev growth adjusting for Covid comes to +1.2% CC, which is at the midpoint of the guidance (0-2% CC).

IT services margin contracted 76bps QoQ to 17.6% (est. 18.1%). Margin was impacted due to lower growth and higher salary payout, offset by higher utilisation, lower SG&A and currency benefit. APAT came at Rs 24.56bn, -5.3% QoQ impacted by higher ETR of 20.9% (vs. 20.0% in 3Q).

Cash conversion was impacted in the quarter due to increase in working capital related to Covid-19. OCF to PAT conversion was at 60.5% in 4Q vs. ~100% last quarter. Net cash stands at USD 3.3bn (~22% of Mcap).

Valuation and view: Wipro’s growth will continue to lag within the Tier-1 IT pack based on soft outlook for ~51% of rev comprising BFSI, Retail, Travel, Manufacturing & Energy. This will be offset by relatively better outlook in Consumer (e-commerce & new age Media), Healthcare (Hospitals) and Communication. New opportunity will emerge with increased cloud adoption, Automation and workplace modernisation. Clients are looking for higher efficiencies (RTB) and vendor consolidation (benefit for incumbents). While growth concerns remain (Covid led disruption), there is limited scope for margin expansion. We expect USD rev growth of -4.4/+4.7% and IT services EBIT% at 17.0/17.3% for FY21/22E. The stock is down ~25% in 3M and valuations are at ~11.9x FY21E (vs. 12.8x Tier-1 IT median).

Financial Summary YE Mar (Rs bn) 4Q

FY20 4Q

FY19 YoY (%)

3Q FY20

QoQ (%)

FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E

Net Revenue 157.11 150.06 4.7 154.71 1.6 544.87 585.85 610.23 596.13 632.08 EBIT 25.00 25.46 (1.8) 26.51 (5.7) 82.81 92.62 101.42 93.94 101.47 APAT 23.26 23.63 (1.6) 24.56 (5.3) 82.57 90.86 97.22 89.24 96.73 Diluted EPS (Rs) 4.1 4.1 (1.6) 4.3 (5.3) 14.5 15.9 17.0 15.6 17.0 P/E (x)

12.9 11.7 10.9 11.9 11.0

EV / EBITDA (x)

8.7 7.0 6.7 6.5 5.4 RoE (%)

16.5 17.3 17.3 14.9 14.2

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

REDUCE CMP (as on 15 Apr 2020) Rs 187

Target Price Rs 185

NIFTY 8,925

KEY CHANGES

OLD NEW

Rating Reduce Reduce

Price Target Rs 190 Rs 185

EPS change % FY21E FY22E

-0.9 -1.5

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg code WPRO IN

No. of Shares (mn) 5,713

MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 1,066/13,938

6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 889

52 Week high / low Rs 302/159

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) (24.9) (23.4) (35.2)

Relative (%) 2.7 (2.9) (13.5)

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Dec-19 Mar-20

Promoters 74.04 74.04

FIs & Local MFs 7.00 7.01

FPIs 8.42 8.45

Public & Others 10.54 10.50

Pledged Shares - -

Source : BSE

Amit Chandra [email protected] +91-22-6171-7345 Apurva Prasad [email protected] +91-22-6171-7327

Vinesh Vala [email protected] +91-22-6171-7332

HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters

Wipro: Results Review 4QFY20

Quarterly consolidated Financial Snapshot Particulars (Rs bn) 4QFY20 4QFY19 YoY (%) 3QFY20 QoQ (%) IT Services Rev (USD mn) 2,074 2,076 (0.1) 2,095 (1.0) Total Revenues 157.11 150.06 4.7 154.71 1.6

Operating Expenses 126.31 119.01 6.1 122.90 2.8

EBITDA 30.80 31.05 (0.8) 31.80 (3.2)

Depreciation 5.80 5.60 3.6 5.30 9.5

EBIT 25.00 25.46 (1.8) 26.51 (5.7)

Other Income 5.32 8.76 (39.3) 5.40 (1.6)

Interest costs 1.65 2.53 (34.7) 1.84 (10.4)

Forex gain/(loss) 0.99 0.32 214.2 0.73 36.6

PBT 29.66 32.00 (7.3) 30.79 (3.7)

Minority Interest 0.19 0.10 83.7 0.07 169.0

Tax 6.21 7.06 (12.2) 6.16 0.7

RPAT 23.26 24.83 (6.3) 24.56 (5.3)

E/o (adj for tax) 0.00 1.20 NM 0.00 NM

APAT 23.26 23.63 (1.6) 24.56 (5.3) Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Margin Analysis Particulars (% of Revenue) 4QFY20 4QFY19 YoY (bps) 3QFY20 QoQ (bps)

Operating Expenses 80.4 79.3 109 79.4 95

EBITDA Margin (%) 19.6 20.7 (109) 20.6 (95)

EBIT Margin (%) 15.9 17.0 (105) 17.1 (122)

IT Services EBIT Margin (%) 17.6 19.2 -165 18.4 -76

Tax Rate (%) 20.9 22.1 (115) 20.0 91

APAT Margin (%) 14.8 16.5 (174) 15.9 (107)


USD Revenue Growth (% QoQ CC) USD Revenue Growth (% YoY CC)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

IT Services/Products/ISRE revenue was up 1.3/8.4/26.7% QoQ in INR terms IT services revenue were impacted by USD 14-16mn (0.7-0.8% of revenue) in 4QFY20 due to COVID-19 IT Services EBIT margin contracted 76bps QoQ to 17.6% (est. 18.1%) due to revenue drop partially offset by lower SG&A & currency tailwind Adjusted PAT stood at Rs 23.26bn (-5.3% QoQ) vs. est. of Rs 23.92bn impacted by lower margin and higher tax rate Total forex hedging at USD 2.7bn for the next four quarters

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Page | 2


IT Services EBIT Margin Trend Revenue Productivity (Rev/emp USD ‘000)


BFSI: Trending downwards (% YoY CC) Consumer: Holding up (% YoY CC)


Healthcare: Positive outlook (% YoY CC) ENU: Utilities doing well, Energy muted (% YoY CC)


21.0 20.7

20.2 20.1

17.8 17.8

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16.8

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18.6

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(%)

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(%, YoY CC)

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Page | 3


Vertical Revenue Break-up (IT Services ex ISRE) Verticals (USD mn)

1Q FY19

2Q FY19

3Q FY19

4Q FY19

FY19 1Q

FY20 2Q

FY20 3Q

FY20 4Q

FY20 FY20

BFSI 593 613 643 654 2,509 644 641 647 630 2,559

QoQ % 2.3% 3.4% 4.8% 1.7%

-1.5% -0.5% 0.9% -2.6%

YoY % 15.2% 12.7% 15.1% 12.8% 14.3% 8.7% 4.6% 0.7% -3.6% 2.0%

% of Rev 29.8% 30.5% 31.4% 31.5% 30.9% 31.6% 31.3% 30.9% 30.4% 31.0%

Consumer 304 315 319 336 1,275 318 328 354 348 1,346

QoQ % 0.5% 3.7% 1.2% 5.3%

-5.4% 3.1% 8.0% -1.6%

YoY % 4.9% 6.1% 7.2% 11.0% 7.7% 4.5% 3.9% 10.9% 3.6% 5.6%

% of Rev 15.3% 15.7% 15.6% 16.2% 15.7% 15.6% 16.0% 16.9% 16.8% 16.3%

Healthcare 270 261 268 274 1,072 269 266 274 280 1,090

QoQ % -5.7% -3.4% 2.6% 2.2%

-1.8% -1.0% 3.0% 2.0%

YoY % -7.4% -5.3% -5.0% -4.4% -5.7% -0.5% 2.0% 2.4% 2.2% 1.7%

% of Rev 13.6% 13.0% 13.1% 13.2% 13.2% 13.2% 13.0% 13.1% 13.5% 13.2%

ENU 253 257 266 266 1,039 261 264 270 265 1,065

QoQ % -1.5% 1.8% 3.4% -0.1%

-1.8% 1.3% 2.2% -1.8%

YoY % -3.2% -3.3% 6.2% 3.6% 0.5% 3.3% 2.8% 1.6% -0.1% 2.5%

% of Rev 12.7% 12.8% 13.0% 12.8% 12.8% 12.8% 12.9% 12.9% 12.8% 12.9%

Technology 288 279 266 262 1,096 265 266 258 265 1,057

QoQ % -2.2% -3.1% -4.8% -1.7%

1.4% 0.5% -3.3% 3.0%

YoY % 8.1% -0.8% -5.7% -11.3% -2.9% -8.1% -4.6% -3.2% 1.5% -3.6%

% of Rev 14.5% 13.9% 13.0% 12.6% 13.5% 13.0% 13.0% 12.3% 12.8% 12.8%

Manufacturing 167 167 166 166 666 161 166 172 170 669

QoQ % -7.0% -0.2% -0.6% 0.2%

-3.0% 3.0% 3.5% -1.0%

YoY % -5.0% -4.9% -4.5% -7.6% -5.2% -3.6% -0.5% 3.6% 2.4% 0.4%

% of Rev 8.4% 8.3% 8.1% 8.0% 8.2% 7.9% 8.1% 8.2% 8.2% 8.1%

Communications 113 117 119 118 463 120 117 119 114 471

QoQ % -4.8% 2.8% 1.8% -0.3%

1.7% -2.9% 2.2% -4.5%

YoY % -15.0% -10.3% -7.4% -0.7% -9.8% 6.1% 0.2% 0.6% -3.6% 1.7%

% of Rev 5.7% 5.8% 5.8% 5.7% 5.7% 5.9% 5.7% 5.7% 5.5% 5.7% Total Revenue (IT Services)

1,989 2,010 2,047 2,076 8,120 2,039 2,049 2,095 2,074 8,256

QoQ % -1.5% 1.0% 1.8% 1.4%

-1.8% 0.5% 2.2% -1.0%

YoY % 2.9% 2.0% 3.7% 2.8% 2.9% 2.5% 2.0% 2.4% -0.1% 1.7%


BFSI has slowed down for Wipro due to challenges in US capital market, EU Banks and COVID-19 disruption Consumer growth was muted due to lower deals in e-commerce sub vertical Healthcare & Medical devices is seeing strong demand related to Hospital management and ventilators requirements ENU slowed down due to lower oil prices impacting Oil & Gas sub vertical Manufacturing de grew for the quarter, impacted by Auto segment Airlines & Airports, Oil & Gas, Retail, Travel & Hospitality, Auto sectors are high impact verticals due to COVID 19

Page | 4


Service Line Break-Up (IT Services ex ISRE) Services Mix (USD mn)

1Q FY19

2Q FY19

3Q FY19

4Q FY19

FY19 1Q

FY20 2Q

FY20 3Q

FY20 4Q

FY20 FY20

Modern Application Services

929 930 933 936 3,727 909 918 926 927 3,674

QoQ % 1.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%

-2.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.1%

YoY % 4.2% 2.5% 3.5% 1.9% 3.1% -2.1% -1.3% -0.8% -1.0% -1.4% % of Rev 46.7% 46.3% 45.6% 45.1% 45.9% 44.6% 44.8% 44.2% 44.7% 44.5% Cloud and Infrastructure 523 514 512 523 2,071 524 527 540 535 2,130

QoQ % -6.1% -1.6% -0.5% 2.2%

0.2% 0.5% 2.6% -1.0%

YoY % -0.5% -4.0% -5.0% -6.1% -3.9% 0.2% 2.4% 5.6% 2.3% 2.9%

% of Rev 26.3% 25.6% 25.0% 25.2% 25.5% 25.7% 25.7% 25.8% 25.8% 25.8% Digital Operations and Platforms

247 259 301 309 1,112 300 301 321 303 1,222

QoQ % -1.5% 5.1% 16.1% 2.8%

-3.1% 0.5% 6.4% -5.5%

YoY % 3.7% 6.1% 18.2% 23.5% 12.7% 21.5% 16.2% 6.5% -2.1% 9.8% % of Rev 12.4% 12.9% 14.7% 14.9% 13.7% 14.7% 14.7% 15.3% 14.6% 14.8% Industrial & Engineering Services

147 149 145 149 593 155 154 157 160 627

QoQ % -1.5% 1.0% -2.3% 2.8%

3.7% -0.8% 2.2% 1.6%

YoY % 7.2% 6.3% 5.2% 0.0% 4.3% 5.3% 3.3% 8.1% 6.9% 5.9% % of Rev 7.4% 7.4% 7.1% 7.2% 7.3% 7.6% 7.5% 7.5% 7.7% 7.6% Data, Analytics and AI

143 157 156 158 617 151 150 151 149 603

QoQ % -0.1% 9.5% -0.8% 1.4%

-4.4% -0.9% 0.8% -1.0%

YoY % 1.5% 10.5% 11.0% 10.0% 8.6% 5.4% -4.6% -3.0% -5.3% -2.3%

% of Rev 7.2% 7.8% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.4% 7.3% 7.2% 7.2% 7.3% Total Revenue (IT Services)

1,989 2,010 2,047 2,076 8,120 2,039 2,049 2,095 2,074 8,256

QoQ % -1.5% 1.0% 1.8% 1.4%

-1.8% 0.5% 2.2% -1.0%

YoY % 2.9% 2.0% 3.7% 2.8% 2.9% 2.5% 2.0% 2.4% -0.1% 1.7%


Business Mix Segments (USD mn)

1Q FY19

2Q FY19

3Q FY19

4Q FY19

FY19 1Q

FY20 2Q

FY20 3Q

FY20 4Q

FY20 FY20

Digital 557 631 679 722 2,590 763 811 834 854 3,262 QoQ % 3.7% 13.3% 7.7% 6.3%

5.6% 6.4% 2.8% 2.5%

YoY % 26.3% 32.9% 37.7% 34.5% 33.1% 36.9% 28.6% 22.7% 18.3% 26.0%

% of Rev 28.0% 31.4% 33.2% 34.8% 31.9% 37.4% 39.6% 39.8% 41.2% 39.5% Legacy (Non Digital)

1,432 1,379 1,367 1,353 5,531 1,276 1,238 1,261 1,219 4,994

QoQ % -3.4% -3.7% -0.8% -1.0%

-5.7% -3.0% 1.9% -3.3%

YoY % -4.1% -7.8% -7.6% -8.7% -7.0% -10.9% -10.2% -7.8% -9.9% -9.7% % of Rev 72.0% 68.6% 66.8% 65.2% 68.1% 62.6% 60.4% 60.2% 58.8% 60.5%

Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

BPO de-grew 5.5% QoQ and 2.1 QoQ as WFH is difficult to acheive Cloud Infra and Analytics both de-grew 1% in the quarter Opportunities are emerging in Virtual collaboration tools, cyber security, Process automation & increased cloud adoption (medium to long-term) Digital (41.2% of rev) growth is slowing down (18.3% YoY vs. 34.5% in 4QFY19) Legacy continues to be under stress (-3.3% QoQ & -9.9% YoY). Fall in legacy is higher than peers. Cash conversion was poor due to increase in working capital related to Covid-19. OCF to PAT conversion was at 60.5% vs. ~100% last quarter

Page | 5


Geographic Revenue Break-up (IT Services ex ISRE) Geography Mix (USD mn)

1Q FY19

2Q FY19

3Q FY19

4Q FY19

FY19 1Q

FY20 2Q

FY20 3Q

FY20 4Q

FY20

FY20

US 1,114 1,127 1,169 1,208 4,612 1,197 1,221 1,240 1,226 4,879

QoQ % 2.5% 1.2% 3.7% 3.4%

-0.9% 2.0% 1.6% -1.2%

YoY % 3.6% 4.4% 9.5% 11.2% 7.0% 7.5% 8.3% 6.1% 1.5% 5.8% % of Rev 56.0% 56.1% 57.1% 58.2% 56.8% 58.7% 59.6% 59.2% 59.1% 59.1% Europe 519 516 522 511 2,071 502 481 496 500 1,981 QoQ % -6.5% -0.5% 1.0% -2.2%

-1.8% -4.0% 3.1% 0.7%

YoY % 8.7% 2.4% -0.2% -8.0% 0.5% -3.4% -6.8% -4.9% -2.1% -4.3% % of Rev 26.1% 25.7% 25.5% 24.6% 25.5% 24.6% 23.5% 23.7% 24.1% 24.0%

RoW 356 366 356 357 1,437 340 346 358 348 1,395

QoQ % -5.7% 2.7% -2.6% 0.3%

-4.6% 1.7% 3.5% -2.7%

YoY % -6.5% -5.3% -7.0% -5.5% -5.7% -4.4% -5.3% 0.6% -2.4% -2.9% % of Rev 17.9% 18.2% 17.4% 17.2% 17.7% 16.7% 16.9% 17.1% 16.8% 16.9% Total Revenue (IT Services)

1,989 2,010 2,047 2,076 8,120 2,039 2,049 2,095 2,074 8,256

QoQ % -1.5% 1.0% 1.8% 1.4% -1.8% 0.5% 2.2% -1.0% YoY % 2.9% 2.0% 3.7% 2.8% 2.9% 2.5% 2.0% 2.4% -0.1% 1.7%


Onsite-offshore Split (IT Services ex ISRE) Onsite Offshore Revenue (USD mn)

1Q FY19

2Q FY19

3Q FY19

4Q FY19

FY19 1Q

FY20 2Q

FY20 3Q

FY20 4Q

FY20 FY20

Onsite 1,052 1,061 1,068 1,069 4,247 1,066 1,092 1,114 1,074 4,368

QoQ % -1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1%

-0.2% 2.4% 2.0% -3.6%

YoY % 1.5% 1.3% 1.2% 0.5% 1.1% 1.4% 2.9% 4.3% 0.5% 2.8% % of Rev 52.9% 52.8% 52.2% 51.5% 52.3% 52.3% 53.3% 53.2% 51.8% 52.9% Offshore 937 948 978 1,007 3,873 973 957 980 1,000 3,889 QoQ % -1.9% 1.3% 3.1% 2.9%

-3.4% -1.6% 2.5% 2.0%

YoY % 4.4% 2.9% 6.6% 5.4% 4.8% 3.8% 0.9% 0.2% -0.7% 0.4% % of Rev 47.1% 47.2% 47.8% 48.5% 47.7% 47.7% 46.7% 46.8% 48.2% 47.1% Total Revenue (IT Services)

1,989 2,010 2,047 2,076 8,120 2,039 2,049 2,095 2,074 8,256

QoQ % -1.5% 1.0% 1.8% 1.4%

-1.8% 0.5% 2.2% -1.0%

YoY % 2.9% 2.0% 3.7% 2.8% 2.9% 2.5% 2.0% 2.4% -0.1% 1.7%


America’s de-grew after two second consecutive quarter of growth due to COVID 19 impact Europe reported muted growth but YoY growth is still under pressure Onsite revenue was under pressure, offshoring helped margins

Page | 6


Client Performance (IT Services ex ISRE) Clients Revenue Metric (USD mn)

1Q FY19

2Q FY19

3Q FY19

4Q FY19

FY19 1Q

FY20 2Q

FY20 3Q

FY20 4Q

FY20 FY20

Top customer 74 74 76 77 300 75 66 63 62 264 QoQ % 1.2% 1.0% 1.8% 1.4% -1.8% -13.1% -4.1% -1.0%

YoY % 31.2% 18.0% 19.9% 5.6% 18.9% 2.5% -11.8% -17.0% -19.0% -12.1% % of Rev 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.2% Top 2-5 163 171 190 208 731 206 197 195 191 793 QoQ % -6.1% 4.7% 11.4% 9.1% -0.8% -4.5% -1.0% -2.1% YoY % 11.0% 8.4% 16.2% 19.5% 12.9% 26.3% 15.2% 2.4% -8.1% 8.5% % of Rev 8.2% 8.5% 9.3% 10.0% 9.0% 10.1% 9.6% 9.3% 9.2% 9.6% Top 5 237 245 266 284 1,031 281 262 258 253 1,057

QoQ % -3.9% 3.6% 8.5% 6.9% -1.1% -6.8% -1.8% -1.8% YoY % 16.6% 11.1% 17.3% 15.4% 14.6% 18.9% 7.0% -3.2% -11.0% 2.5% % of Rev 11.9% 12.2% 13.0% 13.7% 12.7% 13.8% 12.8% 12.3% 12.2% 12.8% Top 6-10 135 139 137 139 552 141 143 145 147 570 QoQ % 1.5% 2.5% -1.1% 1.4% 1.2% 2.0% 0.8% 1.9% YoY % -4.2% -2.2% 3.7% 4.4% 1.4% 4.0% 3.4% 5.4% 5.9% 3.2% % of Rev 6.8% 6.9% 6.7% 6.7% 6.8% 6.9% 7.0% 6.9% 7.1% 6.9% Top 10 372 384 403 423 1,583 422 406 402 400 1,626 QoQ % -2.0% 3.2% 5.0% 5.0% -0.3% -3.9% -0.9% -0.5% YoY % 8.1% 5.9% 12.3% 11.5% 9.6% 13.5% 5.7% -0.2% -5.5% 2.7% % of Rev 18.7% 19.1% 19.7% 20.4% 19.5% 20.7% 19.8% 19.2% 19.3% 19.7%

Non top 10 1,617 1,626 1,643 1,652 6,537 1,617 1,643 1,693 1,673 6,630 QoQ % -1.4% 0.5% 1.1% 0.5% -2.1% 1.6% 3.0% -1.1% YoY % 1.7% 1.1% 1.8% 0.8% 1.3% 0.0% 1.1% 3.0% 1.3% 1.4% % of Rev 81.3% 80.9% 80.3% 79.6% 80.5% 79.3% 80.2% 80.8% 80.7% 80.3%

Headcount, Attrition and Utilisation Data

(Nos.) 3Q

FY19 4Q

FY19 FY19

1Q FY20

2Q FY20

3Q FY20

4Q FY20

FY20

Total headcount

1,72,379 1,71,425 1,71,425 1,74,850 1,81,453 1,87,318 1,82,886 1,82,886

Net additions 928 -954 11,502 3,425 6,603 5,865 -4,432 11,461 Voluntary TTM attrition (%)

17.9% 17.6% 17.6% 17.6% 17.0% 15.7% 14.7% 14.7%

Gross Utilisation (%)

73.4% 75.4% 74.4% 73.9% 71.4% 70.2% 73.4% 72.2%

Utilisation ex-trainees (%)

83.2% 85.4% 84.8% 85.0% 82.1% 79.6% 82.6% 82.3%


Top customer is under pressure since last three quarters Wipro’s Top-5 client’s performance have been muted for the past four qtrs impacted by BFSI Gross utilisation improved 320bps on account of lower net additions Net reduction of 4,432 employees witnessed during the quarter Attrition moderated to 14.7% (-100bps QoQ), attrition is at multi qtr low

Page | 7


Key Assumptions Particulars FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E

IT Services Growth (USD) % 4.9 2.5 2.9 1.7 (4.4) 4.7

USD/INR rate 68.0 66.4 70.3 71.6 73.0 74.0

Products Growth (INR) % (4.6) (28.3) (39.4) (10.6) 0.3 2.0

IT Services EBIT Margin* % 18.2 16.8 18.4 18.2 17.0 17.3

Consolidated EBIT margin (%) 15.6 15.2 17.1 16.6 15.8 16.1

Source: Company, HDFC Sec Inst Research

Change in Estimates

(Rs bn)

FY21 FY22

Earlier New % Change Earlier New % Change

IT revenue (USD bn) 7.94 7.90 (0.6) 8.32 8.27 (0.6)

Net revenue (Rs bn) 598.97 596.13 (0.5) 635.16 632.08 (0.5)

Cons. EBIT (Rs bn) 95.44 93.94 (1.6) 103.88 101.47 (2.3)

EBIT margin (%) 15.9 15.8 -18 16.4 16.1 -30

EPS (Rs) 15.8 15.6 (0.9) 17.2 17.0 (1.5)

Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

Peer Set Comparison

Company MCap (Rs bn)

CMP (Rs)

TP (Rs)

RECO EPS (Rs) P/E (x) RoE (%)

FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

TCS 6,510 1,735 1,770 REDUCE 83.9 86.4 83.5 93.1 20.7 20.1 20.8 18.6 36.1 35.6 33.9 37.6

Infosys 2,717 640 670 BUY 37.1 37.8 37.2 41.5 17.2 16.9 17.2 15.4 24.3 25.2 24.7 25.9

HCL Tech 1,305 481 525 BUY 37.3 39.5 37.5 43.9 12.9 12.2 12.8 11.0 26.0 23.5 19.1 19.4

Wipro 1,064 187 185 REDUCE 15.8 17.0 15.6 17.0 11.8 10.9 11.9 11.0 17.3 17.3 14.9 14.2

TechM 518 537 660 BUY 48.9 48.3 45.0 50.9 11.0 11.1 11.9 10.5 22.0 20.6 17.7 17.8

Tier-1 IT Median

12.9 12.2 12.8 11.0 24.3 23.5 19.1 19.4

LTI 255 1,465 1,650 ADD 87.1 86.2 93.1 109.9 16.8 17.0 15.7 13.3 34.6 28.2 26.3 27.0

Mphasis 125 670 800 ADD 57.6 60.4 59.6 66.9 11.6 11.1 11.2 10.0 20.0 20.5 18.6 19.3

L&T Tech 127 1,218 1,215 ADD 67.8 77.2 72.9 86.7 18.0 15.8 16.7 14.1 32.0 29.8 24.4 25.2

Mindtree 127 770 815 ADD 44.1 40.2 43.4 54.2 17.5 19.1 17.7 14.2 24.9 19.0 20.6 23.0

Hexaware * 87 292 295 ADD 19.6 21.5 20.0 22.6 14.9 13.6 14.6 12.9 26.5 24.6 20.1 20.5

Persistent 39 506 535 REDUCE 47.8 45.7 36.2 44.5 10.6 11.1 14.0 11.4 15.7 14.0 11.3 12.9

Tata Elxsi^ 46 734 NA NR 46.6 41.2 40.2 45.1 15.8 17.8 18.2 16.3 34.5 25.2 21.4 20.9

Cyient 25 225 280 ADD 43.6 34.7 27.8 31.1 5.2 6.5 8.1 7.2 19.5 14.7 11.0 11.5

Zensar 22 95 95 ADD 14.2 10.3 9.2 11.8 6.7 9.2 10.3 8.0 17.6 11.5 9.4 11.2

Sonata 18 174 250 BUY 23.7 27.3 22.4 27.5 7.3 6.4 7.8 6.3 35.1 34.6 25.6 28.6

Intellect^ 10 76 NA NR 7.7 (1.7) 1.7 4.9 10.0 NM 44.5 15.6 11.1 (2.2) 2.2 6.1

Majesco 8 275 360 BUY 18.3 18.0 20.5 24.8 15.0 15.3 13.4 11.1 8.4 7.3 7.8 8.8

Mastek 6 210 333 BUY 39.9 39.8 39.6 43.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 4.9 15.9 15.0 13.3 12.8

Tier-2 IT AVG

11.9 12.3 15.2 11.2 22.8 18.6 16.3 17.5

Tier-2 IT Median

11.6 12.3 14.0 11.4 20.0 19.0 18.6 19.3

Source: HDFC sec Inst Research, Bloomberg, *Dec YE, ^ Not Rated

Page | 8


Financials Consolidated Income Statement YE March (Rs bn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E IT Services Net Revenues (US $bn)

7.08 7.35 7.70 7.90 8.12 8.26 7.90 8.27 Growth (%) 7.0 3.7 4.9 2.5 2.9 1.7 (4.4) 4.7 Net Revenues 469.55 512.44 550.40 544.87 585.85 610.23 596.13 632.08 Growth (%) 8.1 9.1 7.4 (1.0) 7.5 4.2 (2.3) 6.0 Operating Expenses 364.94 404.40 441.28 440.94 473.75 487.95 480.33 507.19 EBITDA 104.61 108.04 109.13 103.93 112.09 122.28 115.80 124.89 Depreciation 12.82 14.97 23.11 21.12 19.47 20.86 21.86 23.41 EBIT 91.79 93.07 86.02 82.81 92.62 101.42 93.94 101.47 EBIT (%) 19.5 18.2 15.6 15.2 15.8 16.6 15.8 16.1 EBIT Growth (%) 6.7 1.4 (7.6) (3.7) 11.9 9.5 (7.4) 8.0 Other Income 19.86 23.44 21.66 23.86 26.96 25.25 23.68 26.15 Interest 3.60 5.58 5.18 5.68 7.38 7.33 7.12 7.44 Forex gains/(losses) 3.64 3.87 3.78 1.49 3.22 3.17 1.53 1.24 PBT 111.68 114.80 106.27 102.47 115.42 122.51 112.04 121.43 Tax (incl deferred) 24.62 25.32 25.21 22.39 25.24 24.80 22.41 24.29 Minority Interest and associate profit -0.53 -0.49 -0.25 -0.00 -0.14 -0.50 -0.39 -0.41 RPAT 86.53 88.99 84.90 80.08 90.03 97.22 89.24 96.73 EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) 0.00 0.00 4.08 -2.49 -0.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 APAT 86.53 88.99 80.81 82.57 90.86 97.22 89.24 96.73 APAT Growth (%) 11.0 2.8 (9.2) 2.2 10.0 7.0 (8.2) 8.4 EPS 15.2 15.6 14.2 14.5 15.9 17.0 15.6 17.0 EPS Growth (%) 11.0 2.8 (9.2) 2.2 10.0 7.0 (8.2) 8.4


Consolidated Balance Sheet YE March (Rs bn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E SOURCES OF FUNDS

Share Capital - Equity 4.94 4.94 4.86 9.05 12.07 11.43 11.43 11.43 Reserves 403.05 460.23 515.44 473.89 556.05 546.03 627.25 715.28 Total Shareholders' Funds 407.98 465.17 520.30 482.94 568.12 557.46 638.67 726.71 Minority Interest 1.65 2.21 2.39 2.41 2.64 1.88 2.26 2.67 Total Debt 78.91 125.22 142.41 138.26 99.47 97.39 97.39 97.39 Net Deferred Taxes 0.30 0.82 3.52 (3.85) (2.19) (3.18) (3.48) (3.80) Long Term Provisions & Others 10.43 15.59 15.05 19.67 16.28 20.88 20.88 20.88 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 499.27 609.02 683.68 639.43 684.32 674.43 755.73 843.86 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Net Block 56.67 74.58 76.77 67.39 61.59 93.88 95.87 97.74 CWIP 5.47 6.21 8.95 15.17 22.77 20.35 20.35 20.35 Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets 68.08 101.99 125.80 117.58 116.98 131.01 131.01 131.01 LT Loans & Advances, Others 30.38 32.75 40.01 74.64 54.56 45.96 48.26 50.68 Total Non Current Assets 160.60 215.53 251.52 274.78 255.90 291.21 295.49 299.77 Cash & Equivalents 212.85 303.29 344.74 294.02 379.25 334.13 401.06 485.17 Debtors 91.53 100.98 94.85 100.99 100.49 104.47 107.79 112.56 Inventories 4.85 5.39 3.92 3.37 3.95 1.87 2.09 2.21 Other Current Assets 127.26 94.53 95.40 80.58 87.98 79.38 82.27 85.33 Total Current Assets (ex Cash) 223.64 200.89 194.16 184.94 192.42 185.72 192.14 200.11 Creditors 58.75 68.19 65.49 68.13 88.30 78.13 77.97 82.69 Other Current Liabilities & Provns 39.08 42.51 41.26 46.18 54.95 58.50 55.00 58.50 Total Current Liabilities 97.82 110.70 106.74 114.30 143.25 136.63 132.97 141.19 Net Current Assets 125.82 90.19 87.42 70.63 49.17 49.09 59.18 58.92 TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 499.27 609.02 683.68 639.43 684.32 674.43 755.73 843.86


Page | 9


Consolidated Cash Flow YE March (Rs bn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E

Reported PBT 111.68 114.80 106.27 102.47 115.42 122.51 112.04 121.43 Non-operating & EO items (14.00) (18.10) (19.76) (10.32) (20.63) (12.46) (23.68) (26.15) Interest expenses 3.60 5.58 5.18 5.68 7.38 7.33 7.12 7.44 Depreciation 12.82 14.97 23.11 21.12 19.47 20.86 21.86 23.41 Working Capital Change (7.98) (5.99) 4.54 (0.94) 27.17 (23.86) (12.69) (2.46) Tax paid (24.27) (26.94) (25.48) (28.11) (25.15) (6.38) (22.41) (24.29) OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 81.86 84.32 93.87 89.91 123.65 108.00 82.23 99.38 Capex (22.60) (52.55) (53.25) (27.35) (20.84) (24.77) (23.85) (25.28) Free cash flow (FCF) 59.26 31.77 40.62 62.56 102.81 83.23 58.39 74.09 Investments (25.94) 0.27 (0.23) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Non-operating income 12.43 18.43 17.38 14.96 20.52 24.20 23.68 26.15 INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (36.12) (33.85) (36.10) (12.40) (0.32) (0.57) (0.16) 0.87 Debt Issuance 21.88 35.25 12.98 (11.15) (39.14) (32.82) 0.00 0.00 Interest expenses (3.60) (5.58) (5.18) (5.68) (4.80) (4.60) (7.12) (7.44) FCFE 77.54 61.44 48.42 45.74 58.87 45.81 51.27 66.65 Share capital Issuance/Buyback 0.01 0.00 (25.00) (110.29) 0.00 (105.30) 0.00 0.00 Dividend (29.49) (35.49) (8.73) (5.42) (5.43) (8.28) (8.03) (8.70) FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (11.20) (5.82) (25.94) (132.53) (49.37) (151.00) (15.14) (16.14) NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 34.54 44.65 31.84 (55.02) 73.96 (43.57) 66.92 84.11 Non-operating and EO items 3.55 45.79 9.61 4.30 11.26 (1.55) 0.00 0.00 Closing Cash & Equivalents 212.85 303.29 344.74 294.02 379.25 334.13 401.06 485.17


Key Ratios FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E PROFITABILITY (%)

EBITDA Margin 22.3 21.1 19.8 19.1 19.1 20.0 19.4 19.8 APAT Margin 18.4 17.4 14.7 15.2 15.5 15.9 15.0 15.3 RoE 23.0 20.4 16.4 16.5 17.3 17.3 14.9 14.2 RoIC or Core RoCE 25.0 23.7 19.6 18.7 23.7 23.8 21.2 22.6 RoCE 16.2 14.1 11.2 11.2 12.1 12.5 11.1 10.9 EFFICIENCY

Tax Rate (%) 22.4 22.0 22.1 22.8 21.8 21.9 20.2 20.0 Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.8 3.1 2.7 2.6 Debtors (days) 71 72 63 68 63 62 66 65 Other Current Assets (days) 99 67 63 54 55 47 50 49 Payables (days) 46 49 43 46 55 47 48 48 Other Current Liability (days) 30 30 27 31 34 35 34 34 Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 94 60 55 45 28 28 35 33 Net Debt/EBITDA (x) (1.3) (1.6) (1.9) (1.5) (2.5) (1.9) (2.6) (3.1) Net Debt/Equity (x) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) (0.3) (0.5) (0.4) (0.5) (0.5) Interest Coverage (x) 25.5 16.7 16.6 14.6 12.6 13.8 13.2 13.6 PER SHARE DATA

EPS (Rs/sh) 15.2 15.6 14.2 14.5 15.9 17.0 15.6 17.0 CEPS (Rs/sh) 17.4 18.2 18.9 17.7 19.2 20.7 19.5 21.1 DPS (Rs/sh) 5.2 6.2 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 BV (Rs/sh) 71.5 81.6 91.2 84.7 99.6 97.7 112.0 127.4 VALUATION

P/E 12.3 12.0 13.2 12.9 11.7 10.9 11.9 11.0 P/BV 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.5 EV/EBITDA 8.9 8.2 7.9 8.7 7.0 6.7 6.5 5.4 OCF/EV (%) 8.8 9.5 10.9 9.9 15.8 13.1 10.8 14.7 FCF/EV (%) 6.4 3.6 4.7 6.9 13.1 10.1 7.7 11.0 FCFE/mkt cap (%) 7.3 5.8 4.6 4.3 5.5 4.3 4.8 6.3 Dividend Yield (%) 2.4 2.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7


Page | 10


Rating Criteria BUY: >+15% return potential ADD: +5% to +15% return potential REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential SELL: > 10% Downside return potential

Date CMP Reco Target 1-Apr-19 255 NEU 241 9-Apr-19 264 NEU 245

17-Apr-19 281 SELL 250 5-Jul-19 272 SELL 255 18-Jul-19 260 SELL 220

27-Aug-19 249 SELL 220 22-Sep-19 246 SELL 220 4-Oct-19 236 NEU 222 16-Oct-19 244 NEU 230 7-Jan-20 252 NEU 235

15-Jan-20 257 NEU 235 2-Mar-20 221 REDUCE 240 18-Mar-20 173 REDUCE 205 6-Apr-20 180 REDUCE 190

16-Apr-20 187 REDUCE 185 From 2nd March 2020, we have moved to new rating system

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

Apr

-19

May

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-1

9

Aug

-19

Sep-

19

Oct

-19

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr

-20

Wipro TP

Page | 11


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16 April 2020 Results Review 4QFY20 Wipro - 4QFY20... · Amit Chandra . [email protected]...

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