151411 acv IPO slide eng (Airports Corporation of Vietnam) IPO by BSC
Transcript of 151411 acv IPO slide eng (Airports Corporation of Vietnam) IPO by BSC
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Investment opportunity inAIRPORTS CORPORATION OF VIETNAM
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Investment highlights (cont.)
The Government of Vietnam: 75%
IPO: 3,47%
Strategic investor: 20%
Employees: 1,40%
Union: 0,13%
Issuer Airports Corporation of Vietnam
Trading name ACV
Total amount offered 77.804.122 shares
Percentage 3,47%
Par value 10.000 VND
Offer price 11.800 VND
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Vietnam airport operation has showed strong prospect
ACV’s project & investment management capacity
Significant growth in all core operations
Potential growth of Non-aeronautical revenues
Substantial cash-flow
Investment highlights
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CONTENTS1. The airport service sector
2. Airport investment and management capacity
3. Business operation
4. Financial performance
5. Operating result forecast & Valuation
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The airport service sector
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Role of airports in aviation valuation
Manufacture
Airlines
Distribution (Freight) Distribution (Passengers)
Service providers
Infrastrucutre
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Airport services
Inside manoeuvring areaOutside manoeuvring area
Airport security
Non-aeronautical service and retail
Passenger service
Take-off & Landing
Ground handing service
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Airports sector’s characteristics X Airport projects require considerable investment and is usually attached to development policies.
Investment in the industry subject to restriction.
X Direct customers of airports are airlines.
X Service charges at airports are regulated by state agencies.
X The revenue of airport positively correlates with the volume and structure of passenger and cargo traffic.
X Fixed costs constitute the majority of expenses, and thus are forecastable and controllable.
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Service charge regulation
X In Vietnam, service charge rates must comply with the regulation of the Government.
X Most service charge categories was increased, effective from 01/10/2014.
X Calculated as “Rate” × “Workload Unit” (Passenger, Flight, Cargo)
1,32 1,44 1,5 1,5
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Figure 1: Comparison of international passenger charge, 2015 (USD)
Figure 2: Comparison of international passenger securitiy charge (USD)
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2012 2013 2.014
Sustainable growth
X Vietnam aviation industry saw significant growth in 2012 – 2014.
X Growth drivers: Economic recovery, population, expanding middle class, expansion strategies of LCC, and global economic integration.
CAGR = 16%
Figure 3: ACV’s terminal passenger traffic, 2012 – 2014
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Sustainable growth
X Vietnam aviation industry would have the fastest growth rate compared its regional peers in the next 20 years.
X International passenger growth forecast: 5,3%/year
X Domestic passenger growth forecast: 8,2%/year.
Figure 4: Aviation industry growth forecast, 2014 – 2034
4,6% 5,
7% 6,2%
5,0%
7,3%
0%
4%
8%
Toàn Cầu Châu Á - Thái Bình Dương
Philippines Indonesia Việt Nam
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ACV’s airport investment and management capacity
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Airports network in Vietnam22 airports in Vietnam aviation infrastructure network:
X Classified by ICAO: according to the ability to serve aircraft (3C to 4F)
X Classified by operation: 07 international and 15 domestic
X Classified by level of service charge: Class-A and Class-B airport.
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Capacity
Total capacity of all airports in Vietnam approximates 69,40 million passengers.
Figure 5: Design capacity of airports in Vietnam (million passenger)
- 5 10 15 20 25 30
Noi Bai (4E)
Tan Son Nhat (4E)
Da Nang (4E)
Phu Quoc (4E)
Can Tho (4E)
Phu Bai (4C)
Cam Ranh (4D)
4 Class-A Airport
11 Class-B Airport
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Strong investment capacity
During 2012-1H2015, ACV has invested in 05 significant airport projects, increasing capacity by 54%.
Dec, 2013 – Hall E, - Ter-minal 1 Noi Bai at Noi Bai Airport
Feb, 2015 – Vinh Air-port
Dec, 2014 – Termi-nal 2, Noi Bai Inter-national Airport
Aug, 2013 – Civil operational area, Tuy Hoa Airport
Dec, 2012 – Phu Quoc international airport
Figure 6: Notable projects, 2012 – 2016
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Strong investment capacity (cont.)
Vietnam airports capacity is expected to increase to 90,8 million passengers by 2020
Figure 7: ACV’s expected total capacity, 2011-2050
Figure 8: Expected capacity increase at key airports
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Tan SonNhat
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Current Expected
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Current Expected
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Growth in all core operating segments
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1.000
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2012 2013 2014 6T2014 6T2015
Passenger service charge Landing charge
Grounding handing charge Airport security charge
Other aeronautical service
Core business growth
Aeronautical services is the main operating segment of ACV, contributing 81% of total revenue during 2012-2015H1 on average. The segment consist of 04 core revenues lines:
X Passenger service charge
X Landing charge
X Ground handling charge
X Airport security charge
Figure 9: Aeronautical revenue, 2012-6T2015
CAGR = 13%
CAGR = 35%
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X Remarkable traffic growth in terms of passenger, cargo and air traffic movement.
X Increase in service charge since 1/10/2014.
X Incentive policy toward airlines cease to be effective from 31/12/2014.
Growth drivers 16%/yearCAGR of terminal passenger, 2012 – 2014
15%/yearCAGR of cargo movement, 2012 – 2014
10%/yearCAGR of air traffic movement, 2012 – 2014
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Passenger charge
Providing terminal, lounge… to passengers
Passenger service revenue contribute the largest proportion of ACV aeronautical revenues.
� Doanh thu
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International Domestic
At 1H2015, rev-enue was 2.463
VND vn., up 34%.
CAGR = 21%
Figure 10: Passenger charge 2012 – 2015 (ten VND bn. ) and terminal passenger traffic volume (million passenger)
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2012 2013 2014 6T2014 6T2015
Doanh thu hạ cất cánh (tỷ đồng) Số lượt hạ cất cánh thương mại (nghìn lượt)
Landing chargev
Providing runway, taxiway, lighting system and other support systems to ensure the safety of landing/ take off.
Landing service is the second important segment, contributing on average 17% of ACV aeronautical revenues
At 1H2015, reve-nue was 671 VND
bn. up 28%.
CAGR = 6%
Figure 11: Landing charge 2012 – 6T2015 (VND bn.) and number of air traffic movement
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Ground handling service
Services provided acorrding to IATA standard ground handling agreement, such as check-in, loading/unloading and carrying luggage/cargo from aircrafts to the terminals or vice versa with specialized facilities and equipment; aircraft movement control;
Figure 12: Ground handling service, 2012 – 2015 (VND bn.)
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ACV và HGS thực hiện SAGS
CAGR = 18%
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Stable financial structure and robust cashflow
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Revenue & Profit
14%/year
Compound annual growth of revenue, 2012 – 2014
5.173 VND bn.
Net revenue 1H2015, up 37,72% compared to the previous period
1.693 VND bn.
Profit before tax in 2014, excluding unrealized gains from foreign exchange, up 15% in 2012 – 2014
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Total cost structure
27+33+20+20+M 28%Depreciation: Some equipment, machinery and vehicle are depreciated twice as fast. Depreciation expense over originial cost ratio is approximately 10%.
26%Wage, salaries and benefits: Remained stable, constitute a major expense category due to ACV’s charateristically large labour force.
15%Repair and maintenance: Accrued to stabilize operating result, approximate VND 900 bn/year
31%Other operating cost (equipment, materials, outsourced services...)
7.395 VND bn.
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Assets structure
- 10 20 30 40
2013
2014
Tiền, tương đương tiền và tiền gửi ngân hàngTài sản ngắn hạn khácTài sản cố định dài hạnCác khoản đầu tư tài chính dài hạnTài sản dài hạn khác
At the end of 1H2015, long-term assets increased by 49% compared to 2013 due to the investment in T2 Terminal at Noi Bai International Airport .
Cash, cash equivalents and short-term financial in-vestments totalled VND 14 tn. as of 2015H1. This represent 75% of current assets.
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Financing
- 10 20 30 40
2013
2014
Vốn chủ sở hữu
Vay dài hạn
Chi phí phải trả ngắn hạn
Nợ phải trả ngắn hạn khác
ACV utilize long-term ODA financing (40 years), with a grace period much longer than the useful life of the terminal, low interest and subject to foreign exhange risk
As of H12015H1, the debt/total assets of ACV was 0,52x
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ACV possesses robust financial capacity and operating cash flow, due to:
X Core business growth;
X Long financing term with low interest;
X High depreciation and high accrued repair & mantenance costs.
Robust operating cashflow
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Operating result forecast and valuation
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Revenue foreastCore assumption
X We use IATA’s forecast of traffic growth
X To be prudent, we assume service charge after 2015 remain stable
Aeronautical revenue
X We forecast (i) Passenger charge (ii) Landing charge, (iii) Ground handling charge, (iv) Security charge and (v) Other aeronautical revenue
Non–Aeronautical revenue
X Based on each airports and the amount of commercial space available
Financial revenue
X Based on interest and dividend revenues
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X Labor expense: based on revenue and investment
X Depreciation expense: forecast to increase in 2015 and and subsequently decrease
X Major repair expense: maintained at current level
X Financial expenses: decrease due to repayment of long-term financing
Expense forecast
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Operating result forecast
Actual result may differ from our conservative estimation due to strong growth drivers of the aviation industry.
13.993 VND bn.2020 revenue forecast
10.130 VND bn.2015 revenue forecast
3.424 VND bn.2015 net profit forecast
1.719 VND bn.2015 net profit forecast
9% /yearCoumpound annual growth rate forecast of profit from core business lines, 2015 – 2020
1.526 VND/shareEPS 2020
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FCFF valuation
X Rf (Risk free rate): as at 30/10/2015
X Risk premium for B1 and US market obtained from 3rd party research
X Beta obtained from 1-year beta of peers
X Equity/Debt structure as estimated in 2016 – 2020
12.068 VND/shareFCFF valuation result
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Comparables valuation
X Peer selection: 19 airport managers and operators global and regional
X Multiple used: Median EV/EBITDA and P/B
14.606 VND/shareEV/EBITDA valuation result
14.766 VND/shareP/B valuation result
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Summary of valuation result
We price ACV shares from 12.068 VND/share to 14.766 VND/share
Valuation method ResultFCFF 12.068EV/EBITDA 14.606P/B 14.766
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Thank you!
ContactHead office 10, 11 fl – BIDV Tower35 Hang Voi – Hoan Kiem – Ha NoiTel: 84 4 39352722Fax: 84 4 22200669Website: www.bsc.com.vn
Ho Chi Minh BRanch9 fl– 146 Nguyen Cong TruDist. 1, Ho Chi Minh CityTel: 84 8 3 8218885Fax: 84 8 3 8218510Facebook: www.facebook.com/BIDVSecurities
Tran Thang Long Head of Research [email protected] (+84) 43935 2722 ext. 118