15. Presentation by StepStone Group – 2020 Real Estate ... · 26/2/2020 · The Plan’s...
Transcript of 15. Presentation by StepStone Group – 2020 Real Estate ... · 26/2/2020 · The Plan’s...
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15. Presentation by StepStone Group – 2020 Real Estate Strategic Plan
Presentation to: Department of Water and Power Employees’ Retirement Plan (the “Plan”)
2020 Real Estate Portfolio Strategic Plan
FEBRUARY 2020
Disclosure
This document is meant only to provide a broad overview for discussion purposes. All information provided here is subject to change. This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation for any security, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services by StepStone Group LP, StepStone Group Real Assets LP, StepStone Group Real Estate LP, Swiss Capital Invest Holding (Dublin) Ltd, Swiss Capital Alternative Investments AG or their subsidiaries or affiliates (collectively, “StepStone”) in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The information contained in this document should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. StepStone expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information in this document.
This document is confidential and solely for the use of StepStone and the existing and potential clients of StepStone to whom it has been delivered, where permitted. By accepting delivery of this presentation, each recipient undertakes not to reproduce or distribute this presentation in whole or in part, nor to disclose any of its contents (except to its professional advisors), without the prior written consent of StepStone. While some information used in the presentation has been obtained from various published and unpublished sources considered to be reliable, StepStone does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use. Thus, all such information is subject to independent verification by prospective investors.
The presentation is being made based on the understanding that each recipient has sufficient knowledge and experience to evaluate the merits and risks of investing in private equity products. All expressions of opinion are intended solely as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of returns. All expressions of opinion are as of the date of this document, are subject to change without notice and may differ from views held by other businesses of StepStone.
All valuations are based on current values provided by the general partners of the Underlying Funds and may include both realized and unrealized investments. Due to the inherent uncertainty of valuation, the stated value may differ significantly from the value that would have been used had a ready market existed for all of the portfolio investments, and the difference could be material. The long-term value of these investments may be lesser or greater than the valuations provided.
StepStone is not in the business of providing tax or legal advice. These materials and any tax-related statements are not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used or relied upon, by any taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding tax penalties. Tax-related statements, if any, may have been written in connection with the “promotion or marketing” of the transaction(s) or matter(s) addressed by these materials, to the extent allowed by applicable law. Any taxpayer should seek advice based on the taxpayer’s particular circumstances from an independent tax advisor.
Prospective investors should inform themselves and take appropriate advice as to any applicable legal requirements and any applicable taxation and exchange control regulations in the countries of their citizenship, residence or domicile which might be relevant to the subscription, purchase, holding, exchange, redemption or disposal of any investments. Each prospective investor is urged to discuss any prospective investment with its legal, tax and regulatory advisors in order to make an independent determination of the suitability and consequences of such an investment.
An investment involves a number of risks and there are conflicts of interest. Please refer to the risks and conflicts disclosed herein.
Each of StepStone Group LP, StepStone Group Real Assets LP and StepStone Group Real Estate LP is an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). StepStone Group Europe LLP is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, firm reference number 551580. Swiss Capital Invest Holding (Dublin) Ltd (“SCHIDL”) is an SEC Registered Investment Advisor and Swiss Capital Alternative Investments AG (“SCAI”) (together with SCHIDL, “Swiss Cap”) is registered as a Relying Advisor with the SEC. Such registrations do not imply a certain level of skill or training and no inference to the contrary should be made.
All data As of September 30, 2019 unless otherwise noted.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ACTUAL PERFORMANCE MAY VARY.
Confidential |
Table of Contents
I. 2020 Strategic Plan Overview 4
II. 2019 Commitment Review 6
III. 2020 Projected Income Returns 7
IV. Proposed 2020 Strategic Plan 8
V. Risk/Return Targets 9
VI. Components of Return and Leverage 10
VII. Property Type Diversification 11
VIII. Geographic Diversification 12
IX. 2020 Portfolio Model 13
X. 2020 Strategy Implementation/Action Plan 23
Appendix: Global Real Estate Market Conditions – 3Q 2019
Confidential |
Target Real Estate Allocation: • 8% of the total portfolio.
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Performance Objective: To exceed the designated benchmark (NCREIF plus 50 basis points) in the Department of Water and Power Employees’ Retirement Plan’s (the “Plan”) Investment Policy for Real Estate. Based on the Plan’s long-term 70/20/10 (Core/Value/Opportunistic) allocation with the real estate portfolio assumed return of 7.3%1 and standard deviation of 8.7%¹.
Real Estate Portfolio Investment Objectives:
¹Basedonthetargetpolicyallocationof70/20/10core/value-add/opportunisticandcurrentnetreturnassumptionsof5.86%forcore,9.45%forvalue-add,and13.07%foropportunistic,andvolatility(standarddeviation)assumptionsof4.1%forcore,11.2%forvalue-add,and16.0%foropportunistic
• Attractive Income and Total Returns. Historically, real estate has provided stable, long term income returns that comprise a significant portion of total return [e.g., the NCREIF Property Index (“NPI”) income return comprises more than 80% of the total NPI return since inception]. Significant income return increases the transparency and decreases the volatility of total return. Of note, real estate income returns compare favorably to those generated by public equity and fixed income assets.
• Portfolio Diversification. Investment in real estate may enhance the diversification of the Plan’s total investment portfolio given the historically low or negative return correlation of real estate with other asset classes (e.g., equities and fixed
income).
• Inflation-Hedge. Real estate has historically provided a reasonable hedge against inflation.
2020 Strategic Plan Overview
Confidential |
2020 Strategic Plan Overview
The following have been established as short and long term investment themes and initiatives:
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TACTICAL INITIATIVES (Short-Term Goals)
Selectively allocate to high conviction income-oriented strategies
Continue to evaluate core-plus and attractive risk-adjusted strategies as opportunities arise
Evaluate investments in opportunistic strategies which benefit from market dislocations
Continued slight overweight of the non-core component of portfolio
Evaluate defensive opportunities across the capital stack, including niche strategies
Evaluate increasing non-core industrial exposure
Evaluate regional growth opportunities, e.g., U.S. South and Western European non-core
Continue to monitor and evaluate the Plan’s core portfolio positions
STRATEGIC INITIATIVES (Long-Term Plans)
Exceed benchmark: NCREIF + 50 basis points
Strategic target: 70/20/10 (core/value/opportunistic)
Maintain average commitment size of $60-$100 million
Maintain income and preservation of capital focus
Always consider follow-on funds with existing high conviction managers
Confidential |
2019 Commitment Review The Plan made the following real estate allocations in 2019 pursuant to the commitment amounts and risk strategies described in the 2019 Strategic Plan and other strategic opportunities that emerged in 2019.
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INVESTMENTS DATE $ AMOUNT RISK PROFILE OBJECTIVES
Westbrook XI 2Q19 US$75 million Value Invest in small to medium sized assets, focusing on office, residential and debt assets in the gateway markets of North America, Europe and Asia.
Torchlight Debt Opportunity Fund VI
2Q19 US$15 million Opportunity Increase 2017 original commitment of $60 million to $75 million for this high conviction fund and to gain additional management fee savings.
Lone Star Real Estate Fund V
2Q19 US$39.8 million
Reduction Opportunity
43% ($39.8 million) of original 2016 commitment of $92.7 million released due to difficulty in finding investments suitable for the funds’ strategy.
DRA Growth and Income Fund X
4Q19 US$75 million Value Invest in a diversified portfolio of office, residential, industrial and retail assets in major markets in the U.S., with a focus on high current income generation.
ProLogis Targeted U.S. Logistics Fund
4Q19 US$25 million Core Increase 2015 original commitment of $25 million to $50 million for this high conviction fund and to increase core industrial exposure.
$1066.0$851.8
$266.1
$125.1
$73.3
BeginningValue (+)Contributions (-)Distributions (+)Gain/Loss (=)EndingValue
1YEARCHANGEINMARKETVALUE($millions)4Q18-3Q19
Confidential |
Investment 2020 Expected
Income (%) 2020 Expected
Income ($) Core Brookfield Premier 4.50% 3,610,566 DFA 4.00% 1,483,991 FPA Core Plus III 4.00% 2,380,502 Harrison Street 4.00% 3,157,451 Heitman Securities 4.00% 1,390,693 INVESCO 4.00% 2,902,282 Jamestown 4.00% 2,228,437 JP Morgan SPF 4.00% 3,496,052 PRISA 4.00% 3,914,573 Prologis Industrial 4.00% 1,988,126 USAA Eagle 5.00% 2,723,076 Value Angelo Gordon 4.00% 137,995 Almanac VI 6.00% 327,039 Almanac VII 7.00% 956,604 Almanac VIII 8.00% 264,288 Bristol II 3.00% 606,095 DRA VII 9.00% 391,393 DRA VIII 9.00% 1,678,041 DRA IX 9.00% 4,756,886 DRA X 9.00% 1,125,000 Mesa West III 9.00% 186,045 Mesa West IV 8.00% 2,206,029 PRISA II 4.00% 1,790,958 Westbrook X 3.00% 1,287,604 Westbrook XI 3.00% 375,000 Opportunistic Blackstone VII 3.00% 434,779 Blackstone Europe IV 2.00% 249,276 LaSalle Asia V 4.00% 681,281 Lone Star REF II 8.00% 31,744 Lone Star REF IV 2.00% 390,671 Lone Star REF V 4.00% 341,422 Lone Star VII 7.00% 4,587 Torchlight IV 7.00% 427,129 Torchlight V 9.00% 1,464,967 Torchlight VI 7.00% 1,225,075 Total $47,892,532
2020 Projected Income Returns
• Overall, core fund and value debt fund income returns have trended down over the past several years as core pricing and debt competition have escalated.
• Debt funds and income-focused value equity funds continue to bring strong current income returns to the Plan’s portfolio.
• In 2019, the Plan’s portfolio is projected to generate a $47.9 million income return, a significant increase from last year, a
result of the recent focus on income-producing investments.
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Confidential |
The Plan’s projected 12/31/19 real estate allocation is 7.1%. Based on an overall 7.00% Plan annual growth rate assumption, for 2020 StepStone recommends committing approximately $225 million to new real estate investments towards achieving the 8% target allocation in the near term:
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StepStone further projects the following 2021 commitment amounts will be required to stabilize at the 8% target allocation to real estate by year end 2022:
Based on a 7.00% Plan growth rate, in the absence of new investments the real estate portfolio drops to 5.4% of total Plan assets by 2023.
• Core: $60-100 million
• Value: $60-100 million
• Opportunistic: $60-100million
• Core: Up to $75 million
• Value: Up to $50 million
• Opportunistic: Up to $50 million
Proposed 2020 Strategic Plan
Confidential |
Risk/Return Targets
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INVESTMENT AND PORTFOLIO RISK/RETURN RANGES
RISK/RETURN NOMINAL NET
RETURN¹ STANDARD DEVIATION² EXPOSURE 9-30-19
FULLY FUNDED EXPOSURE³
PROPOSED STRATEGY RANGE POLICY RANGE
Core 5.86% 4.1% 67.0% 48.7% 50.0-70.0% 50.0-100.0%
Value-Add 9.45% 11.2% 22.4% 32.7% 20.0-40.0% 0.0-40.0%
Opportunistic 13.07% 16.0% 10.6% 18.6% 10.0-20.0% 0.0-20.0%
• For the core section of the portfolio, strong demand and recent run-up in valuations for institutional “trophy” real estate in major U.S. markets indicate “peak” or “near peak” pricing.
• Continue to evaluate investments providing downside protection, including income-oriented and defensive equity strategies, and increasing non-core industrial exposure.
• Given current market conditions, selectively evaluate core-plus strategies and value investments that emphasize strong current income and moderate use of leverage.
• For non-core investments, continue to evaluate strategies that 1) look to take advantage of dislocations in the capital
markets, including niche strategies, and 2) target regions with strong economic and demographic drivers, such as the U.S. South, and regional opportunities in select European markets.
1:DataderivedfromStepStoneRealEstatereturnassumptionsbasedonthePREAConsensusSurveyasof9/30/19.2:BasedonhistoricalCourtlandPartnersIndexQuarterlyReturnInformationasof12/31/88-6/30/19,thenSREassumptionsthrough2020.3:Includesexposureasof9-30-19plusallunfundedcommitments.
Confidential |
Leverage Review
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LEVERAGE RANGES AND AVERAGE LOAN-TO-VALUE TARGET (AS OF 9-30-2019)
RISK ACTUAL STRATEGIC RANGES POLICY RANGE
Aggregate Core 28.3% 20.0-30.0% Up to 40.0%
Aggregate Value 56.9% 50.0-60.0% Up to 65.0%
Aggregate Opportunistic 59.0% 55.0-65.0% Up to 75.0%
Total Real Estate Portfolio 37.9% 25.0-40.0% Up to 50.0%
• Over the past year, leverage on a portfolio basis, rose 200 basis points (35.9% to 37.9%), which is within the Strategic Range of 25%-40% and well below the Policy Range of up to 50%.
• Core leverage increased 440 basis points (23.9% to 28.3%). An increase was expected given the significant commitment fundings over the past year to incrementally higher-leveraged core-plus investments (Brookfield Premier and USAA Eagle), and slightly higher permitted leverage utilization among the portfolio’s other core holdings. Despite these increases, overall core leverage remains below the strategic limit of 30% and well below the policy range limit of 40%.
• The annual changes in non-core leverage were de minimus and the current ratios remain comfortably below the Strategic
Ranges and Policy Range.
• The Plan’s and StepStone staff will consistently focus on strategies where leverage is not the primary driver of returns.
• In 2020, the Plan’s and StepStone staff will continue to monitor the use of leverage, the debt maturity schedule, and debt composition (fixed vs. floating) to identify and avoid leverage related risks in case of market volatility.
Confidential |
Property Type Diversification Targets
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PROPERTY TYPE DIVERSIFICATION (AS OF 9-30-2019)
PROPERTY TYPE ALLOCATION² POLICY RANGE NCREIF PROPERTY INDEX
Office 29.9% Up to 40.0% 35.3%
Industrial 17.2% Up to 35.0% 17.7%
Retail 13.0% Up to 40.0% 21.4%
Residential 28.1% Up to 40.0% 25.2%
Hotel 2.4% Up to 15.0% 0.4%
Other¹ 9.4% Up to 20.0% N/A
• Notably, over the past year industrial exposure has increased 330 basis points (13.9% to 17.2%), while retail and hotel exposure decreased 240 basis points (15.4% to 13.0%) and 70 basis points (3.1% to 2.4%), respectively.
Proposed Recommendation for 2020:
• Focus strategies which are diversified across property types as well as specific single property-type funds (i.e., non-core industrial, select workforce and B-quality multifamily).
• Continue consideration of diversified portfolio investments that limit hotel exposure and retail shopping center and community center exposure, or target specific niche retail opportunities, such as grocer-anchored neighborhood centers and
ethnic-themed opportunities.
¹Mayincludeseniorliving,healthcare,studenthousing,land,selfstorage,andothernoncategorizedinvestments(i.e.,debtportfolio,non-allocatedCMBS,etc.).²Withpooled/diversifiedfundstrategies,itisdifficulttoprojectpropertytypeexposures.
Confidential |
Geographic Diversification Targets
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GEOGRAPHIC DIVERSIFICATION (AS OF 9-30-2019)
SUB REGIONS ALLOCATION² POLICY RANGE NCREIF PROPERTY INDEX
West (1) 31.0% Up to 50.0% 39.5%
South (2) 16.1% Up to 40.0% 20.1%
Midwest (3) 10.2% Up to 40.0% 8.3%
East (4) 28.1% Up to 50.0% 32.2%
US Non Classified 4.4% N/A N/A
International* 10.1% Up to 20.0% N/A
• Maintain and monitor the portfolio’s exposure to the historically stable and economically well-diversified coastal and gateway markets.
• Consider other high growth/demographically favorable markets, such as select U.S. South markets where these drivers are increasing demand for tenant space in the STEM industries (science, technology, engineering, math).
• Consider select tertiary markets very selectively, based on property type and strategy, as well as select international growth-oriented opportunities with specialist, high conviction managers.
*Note:Withpooled/diversifiedfundstrategies,itisdifficulttoprojectpropertytypeexposures.
Proposed Recommendation for 2020:
(1) Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming. (2) Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas. (3) Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin. (4) Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia.
Confidential |
Current RE Portfolio at 0% Plan Growth
13Basedon3Q19data.Estimatedplanassetsandover/underallocationbasedonassumed0.00%totalportfolio-levelgrowthrate.
Dec-19 Mkt. Value Dec-20 Mkt. Value Dec-21 Mkt. Value Dec-22 Mkt. Value Dec-23 Mkt. Value
Cor
e
Dimensional Global RE 37,099,787 37,841,783 38,598,618 39,370,591 40,158,003
FPA Core Plus III 59,512,539 56,512,539 52,312,539 46,912,539 40,912,539
Harrison Street Core Property 78,936,270 82,093,721 85,377,470 88,792,568 92,344,271
Heitman REIT 34,767,313 35,462,659 36,171,912 36,895,351 37,633,258
Invesco Core Real Estate 73,140,375 76,065,990 79,108,630 82,272,975 85,563,894
Jamestown Premier 55,710,917 55,817,754 55,928,864 56,044,418 56,164,595
JP Morgan SPF 87,401,300 90,065,903 92,787,494 95,565,395 98,398,723
Prologis Industrial Fund 49,996,930 65,009,110 77,870,112 80,984,917 84,224,313
Prudential PRISA 97,864,324 101,778,897 105,850,053 110,084,055 114,487,417
Brookfield Premier Real Estate Partners 80,234,794 83,444,186 86,781,953 90,253,231 93,863,361
USAA Eagle Real Estate Fund 60,512,806 79,209,200 82,377,568 85,672,670 89,099,577
Total 715,177,356 763,301,741 793,165,213 812,848,710 832,849,950
66% 61% 63% 70% 77%
Val
ue
AG Core Plus Realty Fund III 3,448,984 0 0 0 0
Almanac Realty Securities VI 5,450,642 2,700,642 0 0 0
Almanac Realty Securities VII 15,289,473 17,216,973 17,798,112 16,739,270 14,021,987
Almanac Realty Securities VIII 3,303,604 24,381,542 43,702,985 60,937,418 55,337,418
Bristol Value II 20,203,155 6,802,220 0 0 0
DRA Growth and Income Fund VII 4,348,695 140,506 0 0 0
DRA Growth and Income Fund VIII 18,644,895 12,879,202 4,223,619 0 0
DRA Growth and Income Fund IX 52,854,288 47,516,500 42,178,711 22,013,732 1,848,754
DRA Growth and Income Fund X 0 23,875,000 45,500,000 64,875,000 64,875,000
Mesa West Income Fund III 2,067,170 940,562 0 0 0
Mesa West Income Fund IV 27,575,359 52,295,360 47,895,360 29,745,360 11,595,360
Prudential PRISA II 44,773,958 46,117,177 47,500,692 48,925,713 50,393,484
Westbrook X 42,920,127 44,789,847 23,917,223 2,637,223 0
Westbrook XI 0 23,500,000 44,000,000 56,800,000 48,400,000
Total 240,880,350 303,155,531 316,716,702 302,673,716 246,472,002
22% 24% 25% 26% 23%
Opp
ortu
nist
ic
Blackstone BREP VII 14,503,036 8,820,056 3,087,236 0 0
Blackstone Europe IV 12,684,336 8,468,767 2,169,274 0 0
LaSalle Asia V 17,032,033 33,689,341 48,712,951 26,529,618 4,346,285
Lone Star Fund VII 65,524 0 0 0 0
Lone Star Real Estate Fund II 396,795 217,365 180,424 180,424 180,424
Lone Star Real Estate Fund IV 19,533,557 16,231,848 9,353,267 0 0
Lone Star Real Estate Fund V 9,693,219 34,692,008 26,375,146 5,072,694 0
Torchlight Debt Opportunity IV 6,101,848 2,971,108 0 0 0
Torchlight Debt Opportunity V 16,277,412 15,295,805 6,295,805 3,063,916 0
Torchlight Debt Opportunity VI 32,332,551 56,478,650 48,778,650 15,378,650 0
Total 128,620,311 176,864,946 144,952,751 50,225,301 4,526,709
12% 14% 12% 4% 0%
Total Real Estate 1,084,678,017 1,243,322,218 1,254,834,666 1,165,747,728 1,083,848,661
% of Plan Assets 7.1% 8.1% 8.2% 7.6% 7.1%
Plan Assets (0% Growth) 15,302,456,284 15,302,456,284 15,302,456,284 15,302,456,284 15,302,456,284
Over/Under Funded -139,518,486 19,125,715 30,638,163 -58,448,775 -140,347,842
Confidential |
Current RE Portfolio at 7.00% Plan Growth
14Basedon3Q19data.Estimatedplanassetsandover/underallocationbasedonassumed7.00%totalportfolio-levelgrowthrate.
Dec-19 Mkt. Value Dec-20 Mkt. Value Dec-21 Mkt. Value Dec-22 Mkt. Value Dec-23 Mkt. Value
Cor
e
Dimensional Global RE 37,099,787 37,841,783 38,598,618 39,370,591 40,158,003
FPA Core Plus III 59,512,539 56,512,539 52,312,539 46,912,539 40,912,539
Harrison Street Core Property 78,936,270 82,093,721 85,377,470 88,792,568 92,344,271
Heitman REIT 34,767,313 35,462,659 36,171,912 36,895,351 37,633,258
Invesco Core Real Estate 73,140,375 76,065,990 79,108,630 82,272,975 85,563,894
Jamestown Premier 55,710,917 55,817,754 55,928,864 56,044,418 56,164,595
JP Morgan SPF 87,401,300 90,065,903 92,787,494 95,565,395 98,398,723
Prologis Industrial Fund 49,996,930 65,009,110 77,870,112 80,984,917 84,224,313
Prudential PRISA 97,864,324 101,778,897 105,850,053 110,084,055 114,487,417
Brookfield Premier Real Estate Partners 80,234,794 83,444,186 86,781,953 90,253,231 93,863,361
USAA Eagle Real Estate Fund 60,512,806 79,209,200 82,377,568 85,672,670 89,099,577
Total 715,177,356 763,301,741 793,165,213 812,848,710 832,849,950
66% 61% 63% 70% 77%
Val
ue
AG Core Plus Realty Fund III 3,448,984 0 0 0 0
Almanac Realty Securities VI 5,450,642 2,700,642 0 0 0
Almanac Realty Securities VII 15,289,473 17,216,973 17,798,112 16,739,270 14,021,987
Almanac Realty Securities VIII 3,303,604 24,381,542 43,702,985 60,937,418 55,337,418
Bristol Value II 20,203,155 6,802,220 0 0 0
DRA Growth and Income Fund VII 4,348,695 140,506 0 0 0
DRA Growth and Income Fund VIII 18,644,895 12,879,202 4,223,619 0 0
DRA Growth and Income Fund IX 52,854,288 47,516,500 42,178,711 22,013,732 1,848,754
DRA Growth and Income Fund X 0 23,875,000 45,500,000 64,875,000 64,875,000
Mesa West Income Fund III 2,067,170 940,562 0 0 0
Mesa West Income Fund IV 27,575,359 52,295,360 47,895,360 29,745,360 11,595,360
Prudential PRISA II 44,773,958 46,117,177 47,500,692 48,925,713 50,393,484
Westbrook X 42,920,127 44,789,847 23,917,223 2,637,223 0
Westbrook XI 0 23,500,000 44,000,000 56,800,000 48,400,000
Total 240,880,350 303,155,531 316,716,702 302,673,716 246,472,002
22% 24% 25% 26% 23%
Opp
ortu
nist
ic
Blackstone BREP VII 14,503,036 8,820,056 3,087,236 0 0
Blackstone Europe IV 12,684,336 8,468,767 2,169,274 0 0
LaSalle Asia V 17,032,033 33,689,341 48,712,951 26,529,618 4,346,285
Lone Star Fund VII 65,524 0 0 0 0
Lone Star Real Estate Fund II 396,795 217,365 180,424 180,424 180,424
Lone Star Real Estate Fund IV 19,533,557 16,231,848 9,353,267 0 0
Lone Star Real Estate Fund V 9,693,219 34,692,008 26,375,146 5,072,694 0
Torchlight Debt Opportunity IV 6,101,848 2,971,108 0 0 0
Torchlight Debt Opportunity V 16,277,412 15,295,805 6,295,805 3,063,916 0
Torchlight Debt Opportunity VI 32,332,551 56,478,650 48,778,650 15,378,650 0
Total 128,620,311 176,864,946 144,952,751 50,225,301 4,526,709
12% 14% 12% 4% 0%
Total Real Estate 1,084,678,017 1,243,322,218 1,254,834,666 1,165,747,728 1,083,848,661
% of Plan Assets 7.1% 7.6% 7.2% 6.2% 5.4% Plan Assets (7.25% Growth) $15,302,456,284 $16,373,628,224 $17,519,782,200 $18,746,166,954 $20,058,398,640
Over/Under Funded -139,518,486 -66,568,040 -146,747,910 -333,945,629 -520,823,230
Confidential |
Current & New RE Commitments at 0.00% Plan Growth
15Basedon3Q19data.Estimatedplanassetsandover/underallocationbasedonassumed0.00%totalportfolio-levelgrowthrate.
Dec-19 Mkt. Value Dec-20 Mkt. Value Dec-21 Mkt. Value Dec-22 Mkt. Value Dec-23 Mkt. Value
Cor
e
Dimensional Global RE 37,099,787 37,841,783 38,598,618 39,370,591 40,158,003
FPA Core Plus III 59,512,539 56,512,539 52,312,539 46,912,539 40,912,539
Harrison Street Core Property 78,936,270 82,093,721 85,377,470 88,792,568 92,344,271
Heitman REIT 34,767,313 35,462,659 36,171,912 36,895,351 37,633,258
Invesco Core Real Estate 73,140,375 76,065,990 79,108,630 82,272,975 85,563,894
Jamestown Premier 55,710,917 55,817,754 55,928,864 56,044,418 56,164,595
JP Morgan SPF 87,401,300 90,065,903 92,787,494 95,565,395 98,398,723
Prologis Industrial Fund 49,996,930 65,009,110 77,870,112 80,984,917 84,224,313
Prudential PRISA 97,864,324 101,778,897 105,850,053 110,084,055 114,487,417
Brookfield Premier Real Estate Partners 80,234,794 83,444,186 86,781,953 90,253,231 93,863,361
USAA Eagle Real Estate Fund 60,512,806 79,209,200 82,377,568 85,672,670 89,099,577
Core 2020 0 24,375,000 47,500,000 69,375,000 65,625,000
Core 2021 0 0 24,375,000 47,500,000 69,375,000
Total 715,177,356 787,676,741 865,040,213 929,723,710 967,849,950
66% 60% 60% 63% 66%
Val
ue
AG Core Plus Realty Fund III 3,448,984 0 0 0 0
Almanac Realty Securities VI 5,450,642 2,700,642 0 0 0
Almanac Realty Securities VII 15,289,473 17,216,973 17,798,112 16,739,270 14,021,987
Almanac Realty Securities VIII 3,303,604 24,381,542 43,702,985 60,937,418 55,337,418
Bristol Value II 20,203,155 6,802,220 0 0 0
DRA Growth and Income Fund VII 4,348,695 140,506 0 0 0
DRA Growth and Income Fund VIII 18,644,895 12,879,202 4,223,619 0 0
DRA Growth and Income Fund IX 52,854,288 47,516,500 42,178,711 22,013,732 1,848,754
DRA Growth and Income Fund X 0 23,875,000 45,500,000 64,875,000 64,875,000
Mesa West Income Fund III 2,067,170 940,562 0 0 0
Mesa West Income Fund IV 27,575,359 52,295,360 47,895,360 29,745,360 11,595,360
Prudential PRISA II 44,773,958 46,117,177 47,500,692 48,925,713 50,393,484
Westbrook X 42,920,127 44,789,847 23,917,223 2,637,223 0
Westbrook XI 0 23,500,000 44,000,000 56,800,000 48,400,000
Value 2020 0 23,000,000 44,000,000 64,000,000 58,000,000
Value 2021 0 0 16,000,000 30,666,667 44,000,000
Total 240,880,350 326,155,531 376,716,702 397,340,382 348,472,002
22% 25% 26% 27% 24%
Opp
ortu
nist
ic
Blackstone BREP VII 14,503,036 8,820,056 3,087,236 0 0
Blackstone Europe IV 12,684,336 8,468,767 2,169,274 0 0
LaSalle Asia V 17,032,033 33,689,341 48,712,951 26,529,618 4,346,285
Lone Star Fund VII 65,524 0 0 0 0
Lone Star Real Estate Fund II 396,795 217,365 180,424 180,424 180,424
Lone Star Real Estate Fund IV 19,533,557 16,231,848 9,353,267 0 0
Lone Star Real Estate Fund V 9,693,219 34,692,008 26,375,146 5,072,694 21,676,095
Torchlight Debt Opportunity IV 6,101,848 2,971,108 0 0 0
Torchlight Debt Opportunity V 16,277,412 15,295,805 6,295,805 3,063,916 0
Torchlight Debt Opportunity VI 32,332,551 56,478,650 48,778,650 15,378,650 0
Opportunistic 2020 0 24,750,000 49,000,000 72,750,000 71,250,000
Opportunistic 2021 0 0 16,500,000 32,666,667 48,500,000
Total 128,620,311 201,614,946 210,452,751 155,641,968 145,952,804
12% 15% 14% 10% 10%
Total Real Estate 1,084,678,017 1,315,447,218 1,452,209,666 1,482,706,061 1,462,274,756
% of Plan Assets 7.1% 8.6% 9.5% 9.7% 9.6% Plan Assets (0% Growth) 15,302,456,284 15,302,456,284 15,302,456,284 15,302,456,284 15,302,456,284
Over/Under Funded -139,518,486 91,250,715 228,013,163 258,509,558 238,078,253
Confidential |
Current & New RE Commitments at 7.00% Plan Growth
16Basedon3Q19data.Estimatedplanassetsandover/underallocationbasedonassumed7.00%totalportfolio-levelgrowthrate.
Dec-19 Mkt. Value Dec-20 Mkt. Value Dec-21 Mkt. Value Dec-22 Mkt. Value Dec-23 Mkt. Value C
ore
Dimensional Global RE 37,099,787 37,841,783 38,598,618 39,370,591 40,158,003
FPA Core Plus III 59,512,539 56,512,539 52,312,539 46,912,539 40,912,539
Harrison Street Core Property 78,936,270 82,093,721 85,377,470 88,792,568 92,344,271
Heitman REIT 34,767,313 35,462,659 36,171,912 36,895,351 37,633,258
Invesco Core Real Estate 73,140,375 76,065,990 79,108,630 82,272,975 85,563,894
Jamestown Premier 55,710,917 55,817,754 55,928,864 56,044,418 56,164,595
JP Morgan SPF 87,401,300 90,065,903 92,787,494 95,565,395 98,398,723
Prologis Industrial Fund 49,996,930 65,009,110 77,870,112 80,984,917 84,224,313
Prudential PRISA 97,864,324 101,778,897 105,850,053 110,084,055 114,487,417
Brookfield Premier Real Estate Partners 80,234,794 83,444,186 86,781,953 90,253,231 93,863,361
USAA Eagle Real Estate Fund 60,512,806 79,209,200 82,377,568 85,672,670 89,099,577
Core 2020 0 24,375,000 47,500,000 69,375,000 65,625,000
Core 2021 0 0 24,375,000 47,500,000 69,375,000
Total 715,177,356 787,676,741 865,040,213 929,723,710 967,849,950
66% 60% 60% 63% 66%
Val
ue
AG Core Plus Realty Fund III 3,448,984 0 0 0 0
Almanac Realty Securities VI 5,450,642 2,700,642 0 0 0
Almanac Realty Securities VII 15,289,473 17,216,973 17,798,112 16,739,270 14,021,987
Almanac Realty Securities VIII 3,303,604 24,381,542 43,702,985 60,937,418 55,337,418
Bristol Value II 20,203,155 6,802,220 0 0 0
DRA Growth and Income Fund VII 4,348,695 140,506 0 0 0
DRA Growth and Income Fund VIII 18,644,895 12,879,202 4,223,619 0 0
DRA Growth and Income Fund IX 52,854,288 47,516,500 42,178,711 22,013,732 1,848,754
DRA Growth and Income Fund X 0 23,875,000 45,500,000 64,875,000 64,875,000
Mesa West Income Fund III 2,067,170 940,562 0 0 0
Mesa West Income Fund IV 27,575,359 52,295,360 47,895,360 29,745,360 11,595,360
Prudential PRISA II 44,773,958 46,117,177 47,500,692 48,925,713 50,393,484
Westbrook X 42,920,127 44,789,847 23,917,223 2,637,223 0
Westbrook XI 0 23,500,000 44,000,000 56,800,000 48,400,000
Value 2020 0 23,000,000 44,000,000 64,000,000 58,000,000
Value 2021 0 0 16,000,000 30,666,667 44,000,000
Total 240,880,350 326,155,531 376,716,702 397,340,382 348,472,002
22% 25% 26% 27% 24%
Opp
ortu
nist
ic
Blackstone BREP VII 14,503,036 8,820,056 3,087,236 0 0
Blackstone Europe IV 12,684,336 8,468,767 2,169,274 0 0
LaSalle Asia V 17,032,033 33,689,341 48,712,951 26,529,618 4,346,285
Lone Star Fund VII 65,524 0 0 0 0
Lone Star Real Estate Fund II 396,795 217,365 180,424 180,424 180,424
Lone Star Real Estate Fund IV 19,533,557 16,231,848 9,353,267 0 0
Lone Star Real Estate Fund V 9,693,219 34,692,008 26,375,146 5,072,694 21,676,095
Torchlight Debt Opportunity IV 6,101,848 2,971,108 0 0 0
Torchlight Debt Opportunity V 16,277,412 15,295,805 6,295,805 3,063,916 0
Torchlight Debt Opportunity VI 32,332,551 56,478,650 48,778,650 15,378,650 0
Opportunistic 2020 0 24,750,000 49,000,000 72,750,000 71,250,000
Opportunistic 2021 0 0 16,500,000 32,666,667 48,500,000
Total 128,620,311 201,614,946 210,452,751 155,641,968 145,952,804
12% 15% 14% 10% 10%
Total Real Estate 1,084,678,017 1,315,447,218 1,452,209,666 1,482,706,061 1,462,274,756
% of Plan Assets 7.1% 8.0% 8.3% 7.9% 7.3% Plan Assets (7.25% Growth) 15,302,456,284 16,373,628,224 17,519,782,200 18,746,166,954 20,058,398,640
Over/Under Funded -139,518,486 5,556,960 50,627,090 -16,987,295 -142,397,135
Confidential |
Risk/Return Allocation
17Theaboveproperty-typediversificationtables/chartsarebasedoncurrentportfoliowithnoproposedallocations.Proposedallocationdiversificationinformationisnotincludedasitisdifficulttopredictthenatureoffuturecommitments.
Risk/Return Strategy 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Core 66% 61% 63% 70% 77%Value 22% 24% 25% 26% 23%Opportunistic 12% 14% 12% 4% 0%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
66%
22%
12%
2019
Core
Value
Opportunistic
77%
23%
0%
2023
Core
Value
Opportunistic
Confidential |
Property Type Diversification
18
(1)IncludesMixed-Use,SelfStorage,OperatingCompanies,SeniorHousing,Healthcare,CMBSandPrivateDebt,LandandHealthcareTheaboveproperty-typediversificationtables/chartsarebasedoncurrentportfoliowithnoproposedallocations.Proposedallocationdiversificationinformationisnotincludedasitisdifficulttopredictthenatureoffuturecommitments.
Property Type 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Office 27% 26% 25% 25% 24%Retail 13% 12% 12% 12% 12%Residential 25% 25% 24% 23% 22%Industrial 17% 19% 21% 23% 24%Hotel 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%Other (1) 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
27%
13%
25%
17%
3%
15%
2019
Office
Retail
Residential
Industrial
Hotel
Other (1)
24%
12%
22%
24%
3%
15%
2023
Office
Retail
Residential
Industrial
Hotel
Other (1)
Confidential |
Geographic Diversification
19
1IncludesLatinAmerica,SouthAmericaandother(non-allocated).Theabovegeographicdiversificationtables/chartsarebasedoncurrentportfoliowithnoproposedallocations.Proposedallocationdiversificationinformationisnotincludedasitisdifficulttopredictthenatureoffuturecommitments.
Geographic Diversification 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 East 29% 28% 28% 29% 29%West 32% 31% 31% 33% 34%Midwest 11% 11% 11% 11% 10%South 17% 18% 19% 21% 21%International 10% 12% 11% 6% 4%Other (1) 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
29%
32%
11%
17%
10% 1%
2019
East
West
Midwest
South
International
Other (1)
29%
34%
10%
21%
4% 0%
2023
East
West
Midwest
South
International
Other (1)
Confidential |
Other Portfolio Structure Diversification
20Theaboveproperty-typediversificationarebasedoncurrentportfoliowithnoproposedallocations.Proposedallocationdiversificationinformationisnotincludedasitisdifficulttopredictthenatureoffuturecommitments.
Non-Development/Development 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Development 6% 7% 8% 8% 8%Non-Develop 94% 93% 92% 92% 92%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Public vs. Private 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Public 10% 9% 8% 7% 7%Private 90% 91% 92% 93% 93%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Debt vs. Equity (Portion of Capital Structure) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Debt 13% 17% 15% 11% 7%Equity 87% 83% 85% 89% 93%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Confidential |
Projected Changes in Portfolio Value
21Theaboveprojectedchangesinportfoliovaluearebasedoncurrentportfoliowithnoproposedallocations.Proposedallocationdiversificationinformationisnotincludedasitisdifficulttopredictthenatureoffuturecommitments.
In the absence of new commitments, the portfolio begins to decline in value starting in 2020.
Cash Flow out of/into Fund
2019-2020 Change 2020-2021 Change 2021-2022 Change 2022-2023 Change Return of Capital (68,586,244) (108,733,898) (152,139,120) (140,875,063) Capital Calls 166,787,971 86,917,190 49,409,433 - Total 98,201,728 (21,816,707) (102,729,687) (140,875,063)
(200,000,000)
(150,000,000)
(100,000,000)
(50,000,000)
-
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
2019-2020 Change 2020-2021 Change 2021-2022 Change 2022-2023 Change
Return of Capital Capital Calls Total
Retu
rn o
f Cap
ital
Cap
ital C
alls
Confidential |
Projected Changes in Portfolio Value
22Theaboveprojectedchangesinportfoliovaluearebasedoncurrentportfoliowithnoproposedallocationsandbasedon7.00%portfoliogrowthrate(actuarialreturn).
Financial Model Projected Allocation to Real Estate
Assuming No Additional Investment Commitments Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23
Total Plan Assets 15,302,456,284 16,373,628,224 17,519,782,200 18,746,166,954 20,058,398,640
Real Estate Investments 1,084,678,017 1,243,322,218 1,254,834,666 1,165,747,728 1,083,848,661
Allocation to Real Estate 7.1% 7.6% 7.2% 6.2% 5.4%
8% Target Allocation to Real Estate 1,224,196,503 1,309,890,258 1,401,582,576 1,499,693,356 1,604,671,891
Remaining Commitments 327,360,546 238,707,177 18,934,056 (52,013,903) (54,347,237)
Over/(Under) Allocation - Gross (139,518,486) (66,568,040) (146,747,910) (333,945,629) (520,823,230)
Over/(Under) Allocation - Net 187,842,060 172,139,137 (127,813,854) (385,959,532) (575,170,467)
Confidential |
2020 Strategy Implementation/Action Plan
23
RISK/RETURN ACTION PLAN OBJECTIVES
Core $60-100 million
• Selectively allocate to core-plus strategies. • Consider alternative core strategies (e.g., stabilized non-traditional property types). • Place continued emphasis on current income and preservation of capital/ downside
protection.
Value $60-100 million
• Place continued emphasis on high income with potential for value creation. • Focus on managers that acquire assets below market value and discounts to replacement
cost and subsequently “manufacture” class A and B assets. • Consider debt portion of capital structure. • Focus on top performing follow-on managers if their strategies are consistent and continue to
be a portfolio fit. • Consider strategies that focus on high growth and demographically favorable markets,
including the U.S. South and specific European markets.
Opportunistic $60-100 million
• Focus on investments that target distressed capital structures as opposed to distressed Focus on strategies that provide basis protection in order to minimize downside volatility.
• Consider strategies that focus on high growth and demographically favorable markets, including the U.S. South and specific European markets.
• Consider investments in secondary strategies. • Focus on investments that are not generating returns solely through the use of financial
engineering.
GLOBAL REAL ESTATE MARKET CONDITIONS – 3Q 2019
|
Global Economic Expansion
25Source: Bloomberg As of September 30, 2018
FORECASTS
• Government bond yields rose in the quarter due to positive economic data • Italian bonds increased 40+ bps over deficit concerns • Economic growth is occurring across all major economies, but the rate of growth is projected to slow in
countries like France, Germany, Japan and the United States
TOTAL INCOME PRODUCING REAL ESTATE
$57.0 TRILLION
GDP Unemployment 10YearGovYield 2018F 2019F 2020F 2018F 2019F 2020F 3Q18 2018F 2019F Australia 3.2% 2.8% 2.7% 5.4% 5.1% 5.0% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0%Brazil 1.3% 2.3% 2.5% 12.2% 11.4% 10.8% 10.1% 10.0% 10.4%Canada 2.1% 2.1% 1.7% 5.9% 5.8% 5.9% 2.2% 2.5% 2.9%China 6.6% 6.2% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.4% 3.5% 3.4%France 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 9.1% 8.7% 8.3% 0.7% 0.8% 1.2%Germany 1.8% 1.7% 1.5% 5.2% 4.9% 4.8% 0.3% 0.6% 1.0%India 7.5% 7.4% 7.5% -- -- -- 7.8% 8.0% 7.9%Indonesia 5.2% 5.1% 5.2% 5.4% 5.3% 5.2% 8.0% 8.1% 8.1%Italy 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 10.5% 10.4% 10.2% 3.2% 3.4% 3.6%Japan 1.0% 1.1% 0.8% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%Mexico 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 3.4% 3.5% -- 9.0% 8.5% 8.0%SouthAfrica 0.7% 1.7% 2.1% 27.3% 27.7% 27.6% 8.7% 9.1% 9.0%SouthKorea 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 2.2% 2.4% 2.7%Turkey 3.5% 0.8% 3.0% 11.0% 12.2% 11.9% 17.0% 20.7% 14.9%UnitedKingdom 1.3% 1.5% 1.6% 4.1% 4.0% 4.1% 1.8% 1.5% 2.0%UnitedStates 2.9% 2.6% 1.9% 3.9% 3.6% 3.7% 2.9% 3.2% 3.5%
|
Real Estate Transaction Volume: Global
26Source: Real Capital Analytics As of September 30, 2019 Current year data are year-to-date.
ANNUAL VOLUME
• Global transaction volume was $226 billion in the quarter, up from $210 billion. • Quarterly volume was down -7% from 3Q18 to 3Q19. • EMEA and Asia volumes were each down -10% compared to the year ago, while the Americas were down 5%
over that period.
BY REGION
$1027
$446
$239
$414
$533$583
$726
$837
$975
$872$914
$999
$635
$
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
TransactionVo
lume($billion)
50%
34%
24%
34%41%
47% 46% 45%49% 50%
45%49% 53%
13%
19%
26%
26%21%
20% 20% 18%16% 17%
18%17%
17%
37%
47% 50%
39% 38%33% 35% 37% 36% 34% 37% 33% 30%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Americas Asia EMEA
|
Real Estate Transaction Volume: Americas
27Source: Real Capital Analytics As of September 30, 2019 Current year data are year-to-date.
ANNUAL VOLUME
• There was $130 billion of transaction volume in the Americas for the quarter. • The annualized rate of $446 billion is approximately 90% of the 2018 volume. • Year-over-year volume in Industrial transactions is up 78%.
BY PROPERTY TYPE
$516
$152
$57
$143
$220
$271
$332
$375
$474
$433$411
$493
$334
$
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
TransactionVo
lume($billion)
41% 42%33% 37%
32% 32% 32% 33% 31% 32% 32%26% 28%
10%13%
13%14%
15% 12% 13% 11% 14% 11% 15%18%
20%
14%14%
24% 17% 20%19% 20% 20%
16%15%
13% 15% 9%
18%
24%25%
22% 23% 29% 28% 27%30% 34% 34% 33% 36%
16%
7% 5%10% 9% 7% 8% 9% 10% 8% 6% 8% 6%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Office Industrial Retail Apartment Hotel
|
Real Estate Transaction Volume: EMEA
28Source: Real Capital Analytics As of September 30, 2019 Current year data are year-to-date.
ANNUAL VOLUME BY PROPERTY TYPE
• There was $66 billion of transaction volume in EMEA for the quarter. • The annualized rate of $256 billion is approximately 77% of the 2018 volume. • Year-over-year volume in Industrial transactions is down – 22%.
50%44% 47%
40%44% 44% 43% 45% 43% 43% 43% 43% 45%
10%
11% 10%
10%10% 10% 10%
11%10% 11%
15% 12% 11%
26%29% 28%
30%29%
25% 24%24%
25% 23% 19%18% 14%
6% 9% 9%11%
10%14% 16% 12% 13% 14% 16%
19%21%
8% 7% 7% 9% 7% 7% 7% 8% 9% 8% 7% 8% 9%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Office Industrial Retail Apartment Hotel
$381
$210
$118
$162
$200 $193
$250
$308
$348
$293
$339 $334
$192
$
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
TransactionVo
lume($billion)
|
Real Estate Transaction Volume: Asia
29Source: Real Capital Analytics As of September 30, 2019 Current year data are year-to-date.
ANNUAL VOLUME BY PROPERTY TYPE
• There was $31 billion of transaction volume in Asia for the quarter. • The annualized rate of $145 billion is approximately 84% of the 2018 volume. • The Office sector transaction volume is down -19% year-over-year.
$130
$83
$63
$109$113
$119
$143
$154 $153$146
$163
$172
$109
$
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
TransactionVo
lume($billion)
41% 42%33% 37%
32% 32% 32% 33% 31% 32% 32%26% 28%
10%13%
13%14%
15% 12% 13% 11% 14% 11% 15%18%
20%
14%14%
24% 17% 20%19% 20% 20%
16%15%
13% 15% 9%
18%
24%25%
22% 23% 29% 28% 27%30% 34% 34% 33% 36%
16%
7% 5%10% 9% 7% 8% 9% 10% 8% 6% 8% 6%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Office Industrial Retail Apartment Hotel
|
Comparing Yield Spreads
30Cap Rate Spreads are Office cap rates minus the 10 year government debt from each respective country Source: Bloomberg, Real Capital Analytics As of September 30, 2019
• Negative rates in Europe and Japan have led to wide yield spreads in Tokyo, Paris and Frankfurt. • US yield spreads rose 14 bps as rates fell. • Hong Kong Office cap rates have widened 75 bps from 3Q19 amid political unrest, raising the spread to 1.00%.
TOTAL INCOME PRODUCING REAL ESTATE
$57.0 TRILLION
CAP RATE SPREAD: PAST 3 YEARS CAP RATE SPREAD: 3Q19
3.64%
4.37%
1.00%
3.45%
2.61%
4.17%
5.54%5.72%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
Sydney Tokyo HongKong Toronto
NewYork London Paris Frankfurt
5.72%5.54%
4.37%4.17%
3.64%3.45%
2.61%
1.00%
Frankfurt Paris Tokyo London Sydney Toronto NewYork HongKong
|
Global Fundraising
31Source: Preqin As of November 2019
• There were 243 funds closed through November 2019, which is on pace to fall well below 2018 levels. • $140 billion was raised through November, which is also on pace to exceed 2018 levels.
FUNDS CLOSED BY YEAR
1923
15 16
48
80
105
141148
5360
78
92
111
121
145
134 136
147140
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ThruNov2019
Num
bero
fFun
dsClosed
CapitalRaisedAn
nually($
Bln)
CapitalRaised FundsClosed
|
Dry Powder
32Source: Preqin As of November 2019
• Dry powder levels have declined in all major regions. • Value Add and Debt strategies have seen a drop in dry powder in 2019.
TOTAL INCOME PRODUCING REAL ESTATE
$57.0 TRILLION
BY REGION BY STRATEGY
207
84.7
34.3
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
ThruNov2019
NORTHAMERICA EUROPE ASIA
86.3
137.2
53.7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
ThruNov2019
VALUEADDED OPPORTUNISTIC DEBT
|
Cap Rate Spread
33Source: NCREIF, Bloomberg As of September 30, 2019
NPI CAP RATE & 10 YEAR US TREASURY BOND YIELDS
• NCREIF cap rates have been in a saw tooth motion of up one quarter and down the next since 1Q17. • US interest rates fell 34 bps in the quarter, and are down 140 bps since the end of 3Q18. • Cap rate spreads widened to 2.66%, 16 basis points above the 20 year average spread.
TOTAL INCOME PRODUCING REAL ESTATE
$57.0 TRILLION
2.66%
4.32%
1.66%
2.50%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Dec-99
Jun-00
Dec-00
Jun-01
Dec-01
Jun-02
Dec-02
Jun-03
Dec-03
Jun-04
Dec-04
Jun-05
Dec-05
Jun-06
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Spread
Rates
Spread(Right) CapRate(Left) 10YrUST(Left) 20YrAvgSpread(Right)
|
Core Contributions & Redemptions
34Source: StepStone Real Estate manager surveys As of September 30, 2019
ODCE FUND QUEUES ($ BILLIONS)
• Redemption queues grew after lagging contribution queues last quarter • Redemption queues are at their cycle high • Of the 25 ODCE funds, 13 have contribution queues and 4 have redemption queues • Morgan Stanley Prime has the largest contribution queue ($1.4 bil., 5.4% of NAV) and UBS Trumbull Property
has the largest redemption queue ($3.8 bil., 22.0% of NAV).
TOTAL INCOME PRODUCING REAL ESTATE
$57.0 TRILLION
$1.5
$3.1
$4.2
$5.6
$6.2
$7.4
$7.7
$6.5
$7.5
$8.2
$6.7
$6.9
$7.0
$6.8
$8.4
$8.3
$10.
6
$10.
3
$9.9
$10.
9
$10.
8
$9.9
$10.
0
$10.
7
$8.9
$7.0
$5.1
$5.0
$6.1
$7.1
$6.5
$7.5
$6.2
$6.7
$4.7
$3.8
$3.8
$3.1
$4.5
$3.7
($6.
2)
($4.
9)
($2.
4)
($.2
)
($.3
)
($.2
)
($.3
)
($.3
)
($.4
)
($.6
)
($.2
)
($.1
)
($.1
)
($.2
)
($.3
)
($.2
)
($.1
)
($.1
)
($.0
)
($.1
)
($.0
)
($.1
)
($.1
)
($.2
)
($.2
)
($.8
)
($1.
7)
($1.
7)
($1.
9)
($1.
7) ($
.5)
($.4
)
($.3
)
($.7
)
($1.
5)
($1.
8)
($2.
3)
($3.
8)
($3.
7)
($4.
4)
$211.5
Dec
-09
Mar
-10
Jun-
10
Sep-
10
Dec
-10
Mar
-11
Jun-
11
Sep-
11
Dec
-11
Mar
-12
Jun-
12
Sep-
12
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun-
13
Sep-
13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14
Sep-
14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun-
15
Sep-
15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun-
16
Sep-
16
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun-
17
Sep-
17
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Jun-
18
Sep-
18
Dec
-18
Mar
-19
Jun-
19
Sep-
19
Contribution Queue Redemption Queue Total Net Assets in Core Funds
|
NCREIF Trends
35Source: NCREIF. Data reflect the prior 40 quarters. As of September 30, 2019
TOTAL INCOME PRODUCING REAL ESTATE
$57.0 TRILLION
4 QUARTER NOI GROWTH
CAP RATE VACANCY
• Vacancy is at a 10-year low for NPI, driven by a low in Office.
• Industrial NOI growth has been above 5% for 21 of the past 22 quarters.
• Cap rates ticked up slightly in all property types bringing NPI cap rates down 5 bps to 4.32%.
4.3% 4.2%
4.4% 4.2%
4.6%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
NPI Apartment Industrial Office Retail
Cap
Rate
Average Current Prior 4 Qtrs
6.2% 6.8% 8.0%
7.0%
3.5%
-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
10% 12% 14%
NPI Apartment Industrial Office Retail
4 Q
uart
er N
OI G
row
th R
ate
5.8% 5.8%
3.4%
9.6%
7.1%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
NPI Apartment Industrial Office Retail
Vaca
ncy
|
Change in Valuation
36Source: Moody’s CPPI. The “Major Markets” are six gateway metropolitan areas: Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco and Washington D.C. As of September 30, 2019
MAJOR VS NON MAJOR MARKETS
• Major markets (+1.8%) lagged non-major markets (+2.2%). • Apartments had the largest value change for the quarter (2.9%), slightly edging out Industrials for the 3-years. • Industrials have the largest 1-year gain (12.7%), followed by Apartments (8.2%).
PROPERTY TYPE
120.5
122.6
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Inde
xVa
lue
MajorMarkets
NonMajorMarkets
131.1
130.6
116.6
106.0
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Inde
xVa
lue
ApartmentIndustrialOfficeRetail
|
Periodic Chart of Returns
37Note: 2019 data reflects the trailing 12 months Source: NCREIF As of September 30, 2019
• Industrial has been best performing sector since 2016, after being second worst in 2010 • Suburban Office has outperformed CBD Office since 2016
TOTAL INCOME PRODUCING REAL ESTATE
$57.0 TRILLION
NCREIF ANNUAL RETURNS
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019HighRiseApart.
GardenApart.
SuperReg.Mall
SuperReg.Mall
SuperReg.Mall
SuperReg.Mall Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial
19.7% 15.6% 14.1% 14.2% 15.2% 16.8% 12.3% 13.1% 14.3% 13.6%
GardenApart.
CBDOffice
NghbrhdRetail
RegionalMall
NghbrhdRetail
RegionalMall
SuperReg.Mall
GardenApart.
GardenApart.
GardenApart.
16.8% 15.4% 11.4% 13.6% 13.4% 16.4% 10.3% 8.9% 8.9% 8.0%
CBDOffice
HighRiseApart.
HighRiseApart. Industrial Industrial
NghbrhdRetail
GardenApart. NCREIF
SubOffice
SubOffice
16.1% 14.9% 11.1% 12.3% 13.4% 15.0% 9.5% 7.0% 7.4% 7.5%
SuperReg.Mall
NghbrhdRetail
GardenApart.
NghbrhdRetail
RegionalMall Industrial
RegionalMall
NghbrhdRetail NCREIF NCREIF
16.0% 14.7% 10.9% 11.5% 13.4% 14.9% 9.5% 6.5% 6.7% 6.2%
RegionalMall
SuperReg.Mall Industrial NCREIF
SubOffice
GardenApart.
NghbrhdRetail
SubOffice
CBDOffice
CBDOffice
14.5% 14.6% 10.7% 11.0% 12.3% 14.6% 9.2% 6.3% 6.5% 5.9%
NCREIF Industrial NCREIFGardenApart. NCREIF NCREIF NCREIF
SuperReg.Mall
NghbrhdRetail
NghbrhdRetail
13.1% 14.6% 10.5% 10.7% 11.8% 13.3% 8.0% 5.9% 5.5% 4.6%
NghbrhdRetail NCREIF
RegionalMall
HighRiseApart.
GardenApart.
CBDOffice
SubOffice
CBDOffice
HighRiseApart.
HighRiseApart.
9.9% 14.3% 10.4% 10.2% 11.3% 13.1% 6.6% 5.8% 4.7% 4.2%
IndustrialRegionalMall
CBDOffice
CBDOffice
CBDOffice
SubOffice
HighRiseApart.
HighRiseApart.
SuperReg.Mall
SuperReg.Mall
9.4% 13.3% 10.4% 10.0% 10.9% 11.6% 6.1% 4.7% 0.6% 0.6%
SubOffice
SubOffice
SubOffice
SubOffice
HighRiseApart.
HighRiseApart.
CBDOffice
RegionalMall
RegionalMall
RegionalMall
8.8% 12.4% 8.6% 9.7% 9.6% 10.6% 5.9% 4.4% -1.5% -0.3%
|
Office Fundamentals – US Metro
38
• Completions in 2019 are trending slightly below 2018 levels and below 20 year average. • Rents have grown for 8 straight years, but rate of growth about of half of the 2015 levels.
TOTAL INCOME PRODUCING REAL ESTATE
$57.0 TRILLION
NEW CONSTRUCTION EFFECTIVE RENTS
Source: Reis. 2019 – 2023 Estimates provided by REIS. As of September 30, 2019
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019-E
2020-E
2021-E
2022-E
2023-E
Completions(M
il.Sq.Ft.)
Completions 10YrAvgComp. 20YrAvgComp
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
$18
$20
$22
$24
$26
$28
$30
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019-E
2020-E
2021-E
2022-E
2023-E
RentChange(YOY)
EffectiveRe
nt
EffectiveRent RentChg
|
Office Fundamentals – Class A vs Class BC
39Source: Reis. Current year information reflects the last four quarters. As of September 30, 2019
ASKING RENTS SUPPLY & DEMAND
ASKING RENTS SUPPLY & DEMAND
• Class A Completions on pace to lag 2018 and 2017
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20
40
60
80
100
120
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Vacancy
Completions(M
il.Sq.Ft.)
ClassA
Completions 15YrAvg Vacancy%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
$28
$30
$32
$34
$36
$38
$40
$42
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
RentChange(YOY)
AskingRen
t
ClassA
AskingRent RentChg
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Vacancy
Completions(M
ill.Sq.Ft.)
ClassBC
Completions 15YrAvg Vacancy%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
$18
$20
$22
$24
$26
$28
$30
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
RentChange(YOY)
AskingRen
t
ClassBC
AskingRent RentChg
|
Apartment Fundamentals – US Metro
40Source: Reis. 2019 – 2023 Estimates provided by REIS. As of September 30, 2019
• Projected completions for 2019 have increased in 3Q • Future completions estimated to decline below the 10 year average. • Rents continue to grow, but rate of growth has fallen for five straight quarters.
TOTAL INCOME PRODUCING REAL ESTATE
$57.0 TRILLION
EFFECTIVE RENTS NEW CONSTRUCTION
50
100
150
200
250
300
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019-E
2020-E
2021-E
2022-E
2023-E
Completions(T
hous.U
nits)
Completions 10YrAvgComp. 20YrAvgComp
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
$750
$850
$950
$1,050
$1,150
$1,250
$1,350
$1,450
$1,550
$1,650
$1,750
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019-E
2020-E
2021-E
2022-E
2023-E
RentChange(YOY)
EffectiveRe
nt
EffectiveRent RentChg
|
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Vacancy
Completions(U
nits)
ClassA
Completions 15YrAvg Vacancy%
-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500
$1,600
$1,700
$1,800
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
RentChange(YOY)
AskingRen
t
ClassA
EffectiveRent RentChg
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Vacancy
Completions(U
nits)
ClassBC
Completions 15YrAvg Vacancy%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
RentChange(YOY)
AskingRen
t
ClassBC
EffectiveRent RentChg
Apartment Fundamentals – Class A vs Class BC
41Source: Reis. Current year information reflects the last four quarters. As of September 30, 2019
ASKING RENTS SUPPLY & DEMAND
ASKING RENTS SUPPLY & DEMAND
• Vacancies are moving down in Class A and Class BC • Rent growth is falling in A and BC
|
Industrial Fundamentals – US Metro
42Source: Reis. 2019 – 2023 Estimates provided by REIS. As of September 30, 2019
• Completions are projected to decline over coming years. • Industrial rent growth is projected to accelerate in 2020.
TOTAL INCOME PRODUCING REAL ESTATE
$57.0 TRILLION
EFFECTIVE RENTS NEW CONSTRUCTION
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019-E
2020-E
2021-E
2022-E
2023-E
Vacancy
Completions(M
il.Sq.Ft.)
Completions 9YrAvgComp. Vacancy%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
$4.00
$4.20
$4.40
$4.60
$4.80
$5.00
$5.20
$5.40
$5.60
$5.80
$6.00
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019-E
2020-E
2021-E
2022-E
2023-E
RentChange(YOY)
EffectiveRe
nt
EffectiveRent RentChg
|
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
5
10
15
20
25
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Vacancy
Completions(M
il.Sq.Ft.)
Community
Completions 15YrAvg Vacancy%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
$16
$17
$18
$19
$20
$21
$22
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
RentChange(YOY)
AskingRen
t
Community
AskingRent RentChg
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Vacancy
Completions(M
ill.Sq.Ft.)
Neighborhood
Completions 15YrAvg Vacancy%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
$14
$15
$16
$17
$18
$19
$20
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
RentChange(YOY)
AskingRen
t
Neighborhood
AskingRent RentChg
Retail Fundamentals – Community vs Neighborhood*
43Source: Reis. Current year information reflects the last four quarters. *- ICSC defines “Community” centers as typically having of 15-40 stores consisting of discount store, supermarket, drug, large-specialty discount (toys, books, electronics, home improvement/furnishings or sporting goods, etc.). ICSC defines “Neighborhood” centers as typically having of 5-20 stores consisting mostly of a supermarket. As of September 30, 2019
ASKING RENTS SUPPLY & DEMAND
ASKING RENTS SUPPLY & DEMAND
• Both Community and Neighborhood retail centers have vacancy falling in 2019
|
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
5
10
15
20
25
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Vacancy
Completions(M
il.Sq.Ft.)
Community
Completions 15YrAvg Vacancy%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
$16
$17
$18
$19
$20
$21
$22
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
RentChange(YOY)
AskingRen
t
Community
AskingRent RentChg
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Vacancy
Completions(M
ill.Sq.Ft.)
Neighborhood
Completions 15YrAvg Vacancy%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
$14
$15
$16
$17
$18
$19
$20
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
RentChange(YOY)
AskingRen
t
Neighborhood
AskingRent RentChg
Retail Fundamentals – Community vs Neighborhood*
44Source: Reis. Current year information reflects the last four quarters. *- ICSC defines “Community” centers as typically having of 15-40 stores consisting of discount store, supermarket, drug, large-specialty discount (toys, books, electronics, home improvement/furnishings or sporting goods, etc.). ICSC defines “Neighborhood” centers as typically having of 5-20 stores consisting mostly of a supermarket. As of September 30, 2019
ASKING RENTS SUPPLY & DEMAND
ASKING RENTS SUPPLY & DEMAND
• Both Community and Neighborhood retail centers have vacancy falling in 2019
|
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
04Q1
04Q4
05Q3
06Q2
07Q1
07Q4
08Q3
09Q2
10Q1
10Q4
11Q3
12Q2
13Q1
13Q4
14Q3
15Q2
16Q1
16Q4
17Q3
18Q2
10YrTreas. CapRate
144bps
368bps
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
04Q1
04Q4
05Q3
06Q2
07Q1
07Q4
08Q3
09Q2
10Q1
10Q4
11Q3
12Q2
13Q1
13Q4
14Q3
15Q2
16Q1
16Q4
17Q3
18Q2
Spread(b
ps)
Rate(%
)
MortgageRate MortgageSpread
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
04Q1
04Q4
05Q3
06Q2
07Q1
07Q4
08Q3
09Q2
10Q1
10Q4
11Q3
12Q2
13Q1
13Q4
14Q3
15Q2
16Q1
16Q4
17Q3
18Q2
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
2.00
04Q1
04Q4
05Q3
06Q2
07Q1
07Q4
08Q3
09Q2
10Q1
10Q4
11Q3
12Q2
13Q1
13Q4
14Q3
15Q2
16Q1
16Q4
17Q3
18Q2
Real Estate Financing
45Source: Real Capital Analytics As of September 30, 2018
MORTGAGE RATE CAP RATES
DEBT COVERAGE MORTGAGE CONSTANT
• Mortgage rates have declined since the GFC but are now increasing in lock step with the yield on the 10 year UST
|
• Europeanrealestatetransactionvolumesdeclinedbyamoderate4.6%forthefullyear2018,thoughremainedatelevatedpre-GFClevels
• Thedeclinehasbeenmorepronouncedinthefirstthreequartersof2019,withvolumesfallingapproximately7.0%year-on-year
• Therehavebeennonoticeablechangesininvestorcomposition,withdomesticinvestorsaccountingforapproximately50%ofmarketvolumes
• Similarly,individualassettradesaccountedforapproximately65%ofvolumesinthefirstthreequartersof2019,onlyslightlyabovethesameperiodin2018
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Individual Asset Portfolio Entity
% TRANSACTION VOLUMES BY TYPE EUROPEAN TRANSACTION VOLUME (EUR BILLION)
European Investment Activity I
46Source:RCA,3Q2019
131
87 57
83 89 92 116
134 166 163 161 156
0
103 100
107
45
17
28 28 32
33
40
65 62 67 76
0
48 43
66
27
14
20 32
37
52
71
100
65
100 81
0
52 47
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Domestic Continental Global
|
European Investment Activity II
47
% TRANSACTION VOLUMES BY SECTOR % TRANSACTION VOLUMES BY COUNTRY
• TheUKlostapproximately500bpsofEuropeaninvestmentmarketshareinthefirstthreequartersof2019,withBrexituncertaintyweighingonvolumes,whichinabsolutetermsfell27%
• AcrossEurope,theretailsectorhasgainedsomeshareinthefirstthreequartersof2019,accountingfor14%ofvolumesyear-to-dateascomparedto12%overthesameperiodlastyear.However,retail’sshareoftotalvolumesremainswellbelowits10yearaverageofapproximately23%.
26% 20%
31% 30% 28% 29% 32% 31% 31% 22% 23% 22% 25%
20%
24%
15%
15% 16% 21% 24%
23% 22% 23%
22% 22% 24% 23%
22%
11%
9%
12% 14% 14% 13% 10% 11% 11%
12% 12% 12% 10%
12%
7%
8%
7% 5% 4%
4% 5% 6% 6%
8% 8% 9% 10% 9%
10%
15%
8% 12% 11%
13% 9% 10% 10%
12% 11% 9% 10% 12%
10%
14% 10%
8% 6% 3% 5% 8% 8%
10% 11% 11% 11% 12%
9% 15% 8%
10% 11% 8% 10% 6% 6% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6%
3% 4% 9%
4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 5% 7% 6% 6% 5% 6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
United Kindom Germany France Benelux
Nordics Southern Europe CEE Other
46% 40% 44%
38% 42% 41% 40% 43% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 41%
10%
10% 9%
10% 10% 9% 10%
11% 9% 11% 14% 12% 11% 11%
23% 26%
26% 28%
27% 24% 22%
22% 24% 22% 18%
16% 17% 13%
6% 8%
9% 11% 9% 14% 15% 12% 13% 14% 15% 18% 17% 19%
7% 6%
6% 8% 7% 6% 6% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8%
8% 11% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6% 5% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Office Industrial Retail Apartment Hotel Other
Source:RCA,3Q2019
|
PRIME OFFICE VACANCY RATES – CURRENT VS 10 YEAR HIGH-TO-LOW RANGE
48
Source:KnightFrank,3Q2019
Office Market Fundamentals
• Currentvacancysitsatthelowerendofthe10-yearrangeinmostEuropeanmarkets
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
10-YrHightoLowVacancy Sep-19
|
2.5% 2.8% 2.8%
3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1%
3.5% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%
4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.3%
4.5% 4.5%
5.8%
5.4%
3.2%
3.9% 4.1% 4.2%
4.7% 4.8% 5.1%
5.7%
6.6% 6.6% 6.9% 6.9%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Prime Yields Average Transaction Yields
EUROPEAN PRIME AND ‘AVERAGE TRANSACTION’ YIELDS
Office Sector Pricing
Source: Knight Frank, RCA 3Q 2019
Prime yields in major markets remain at historically low levels reflecting strong investor demand for stabilized income and the low interest rate environment
49
|
EUROPEAN PRIME AND ‘AVERAGE TRANSACTION’ YIELDS
Industrial & Logistics Sector Pricing
Low yields in London reflect very limited supply and the sector is sought by investors seeking the available yield premia over office and retail, together with healthy fundamentals
3.9% 4.0% 4.0% 4.1% 4.3% 4.5% 4.5%
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3%
5.5% 5.8%
6.0% 6.3%
6.5%
5.9%
6.9%
3.9%
5.0% 5.1% 5.4%
5.7% 5.9%
6.5% 6.8%
7.3% 7.7%
8.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Prime Yields Average Transaction Yields
Source: Knight Frank, RCA 3Q 2019
50
|
2.3% 2.5% 2.5%
2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.3%
3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%
4.0% 4.0%
4.8%
6.2% 5.9%
3.9%
4.7% 4.9%
5.5% 5.6%
6.0% 6.0% 6.3% 6.3% 6.5%
7.2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
EUROPEAN PRIME AND ‘AVERAGE TRANSACTION’ YIELDS
Retail Sector Pricing
European Prime Yield – High Street Assets Average Transaction Yield – All Retail Assets
There is much greater convergence in prime high street yields when contrasted with other property types
Source: Knight Frank, RCA 1Q 2019 51
|
EUROPEAN PRIME LIVING SECTOR YIELDS
Living Sector Pricing
52Source:Savills,KnightFrank,RCA,3Q2019
3.7%
4.0% 4.0%
4.3% 4.3%
4.5%
4.8% 4.8%
5.0%
3.5% 3.5%
4.0% 4.2% 4.2%
5.0%
2.1%
2.6% 2.8%
3.0% 3.0%
3.5% 3.5%
3.8%
4.0%
4.4%
4.1%
3.1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Prime Multifamily Yield
Prime Senior Housing Yield
Prime Student Housing Yield
Average
• Livingsectoryieldsarewellpositionedrelativeto‘traditional’commercialpropertytypes,especiallywhenconsideringthedemographictrendsunderlyingtheirgenerallylessvolatileincomestreams
• Outsidetheprimedefinitionfurtheryieldenhancementprovidesattractiverisk-adjustedreturnse.g.‘Core’UKseniorhousingprovidesfora5.5%incomeyieldaccordingtoKnightFranksvs4%forprime
|
LOCAL CURRENCY TOTAL RETURNS (ORDERED BY ONE-YEAR ROLLING RETURNS)
European Real Estate Fund Performance
53Source:INREV,3Q2019Note,2Q19returnshavenotbeenannualized
2.6%
3.7%
1.8% 1.8% 1.5%0.9% 1.3%
0.5% 0.2%
-1.4%-2.3%
12.9%
8.4% 8.4% 8.2%
7.0% 7.0%6.4%
4.4%
2.6%
0.9%
-0.1%
14.8%
9.8%8.8% 9.2%
7.8%
10.0%
8.1%
2.5%
5.3%
9.4%
4.0%
11% 28% 35% 24% 24% 35% 16% 42% 7% 34% 37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Netherlands France Germany ContinentalEurope
Pan-European Nordic WesternEurope
CEE UK SouthernEurope
Italy
TotalReturn(%
)
2Q19(un-annualized) 1Year 3Year CurrentLTV
LTV
• Onaone-yearrollingbasis,fundsfocusedonNetherlands,FranceandGermanyhaveoutperformedfundsfocusedonContinentalEurope,albeitFranceandGermanyathigherleveragelevels
• UK-focusedfundscontinuetounderperformdrivenbyBrexit-leduncertainty,withItalian-focusedfundsdraggingdownSouthernEuropeanperformanceowingtopoliticalandfinancialvolatility
Confidential | 54As of June 30, 2019
Confidential | 55As of June 30, 2019
Confidential | 56As of June 30, 2019
Confidential | 57As of June 30, 2019
Confidential | 58As of June 30, 2019
Risks and Other Considerations
Risks Associated with Investments. Identifying attractive investment opportunities and the right underlying fund managers is difficult and involves a high degree of uncertainty. There is no assurance that the investments will be profitable and there is a substantial risk that losses and expenses will exceed income and gains.
Restrictions on Transfer and Withdrawal; Illiquidity of Interests; Interests Not Registered. The investment is highly illiquid and subject to transfer restrictions and should only be acquired by an investor able to commit its funds for a significant period of time and to bear the risk inherent in such investment, with no certainty of return. Interests in the investment have not been and will not be registered under the laws of any jurisdiction. Investment has not been recommended by any securities commission or regulatory authority. Furthermore, the aforementioned authorities have not confirmed the accuracy or determined the adequacy of this document.
Limited Diversification of Investments. The investment opportunity does not have fixed guidelines for diversification and may make a limited number of investments.
Reliance on Third Parties. StepStone will require, and rely upon, the services of a variety of third parties, including but not limited to attorneys, accountants, brokers, custodians, consultants and other agents and failure by any of these third parties to perform their duties could have a material adverse effect on the investment.
Reliance on Managers. The investment will be highly dependent on the capabilities of the managers.
Risk Associated with Portfolio Companies. The environment in which the investors directly or indirectly invest will sometimes involve a high degree of business and financial risk. StepStone generally will not seek control over the management of the portfolio companies in which investments are made, and the success of each investment generally will depend on the ability and success of the management of the portfolio company.
Taxation. An investment involves numerous tax risks. Please consult with your independent tax advisor.
Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts of interest may arise between StepStone and investors. Certain potential conflicts of interest are described below; however, they are by no means exhaustive. There can be no assurance that any particular conflict of interest will be resolved in favor of an investor.
Allocation of Investment Opportunities. StepStone currently makes investments, and in the future will make investments, for separate accounts having overlapping investment objectives. In making investments for separate accounts, these accounts may be in competition for investment opportunities.
Existing Relationships. StepStone and its principals have long-term relationships with many private equity managers. StepStone clients may seek to invest in the pooled investment vehicles and/or the portfolio companies managed by those managers.
Carried Interest. The entitlement of StepStone and the underlying portfolio fund managers to carried interest over and above their basic management fees could create an incentive for StepStone and the portfolio fund managers to make investments that are riskier or more speculative than would otherwise be the case.
Other Activities. Employees of StepStone are not required to devote all of their time to the investment and may spend a substantial portion of their time on matters other than the investment.
Material, Non-Public Information. From time to time, StepStone may come into possession of material, non-public information that would limit their ability to buy and sell investments.
59
Global Offices
60
BEIJING Kerry Centre, South Tower, 16th Floor 1 Guang Hua Road Chaoyang District Beijing, China 100020 +86.10.8529.8784
LA JOLLA 4275 Executive Square, Suite 500 La Jolla, CA 92037 +1.858.558.9700
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