130514 국회예산정책처 국제스포츠행사 지원사업 평가

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국회예산정책처 국제스포츠행사의 비경제성

Transcript of 130514 국회예산정책처 국제스포츠행사 지원사업 평가

  • 13-08( 283)

    , . : | 02) 788-3782 | [email protected] (www.nabo.go.kr) .

  • 2013. 5

  • 222 3 .

  • . 2014 2 499, 2018 5 5,723 . , .

    .

    , , , , . , SOC , , .

    , , , .

    .

    2013 5

  • vii

    1.

    , .

    .

    , , .

    . (F1)

    , 2013 , 2014 , 2015 , 2015 , 2018 .

    2002 , 2003 , .

  • viii

    2.

    10 .

    .

    (: )

    F1 10,288 1,001 5,031 1,268 2,9882013 993 288 565 140 -2014 22,905 5,039 15,460 2,382 242015 8,171 2,609 4,330 1,232 -2015 538 269 161 108 -2018 89,491 52,104 3,619 16,111 17,657

    3.

    .

    F1 .

    1,001 .

  • ix

    .

    6 .

    (Net Present Value; NPV) / (Benefit-Cost ratio; B/C ra-tio) .

    20 4,973, 8 7,546, 23 25 .

    () 2.2 .

    2 4 8,601 .

    .

    F1 . 25~31%

    .

  • x

    . ,

    , 467(), 431() .

    .

    1 6,836 , , 25.8% . 2007 125.2% 2012

    338% , 430 .

    F1 577 .

    2010~2016 7 4,000 .

    .

    . 80%, 60% 50

    151 9,300 .

  • xi

    , 2014 . OCA 50 2,000

    , 2014 200 .

    .

    SOC . 38 500

    300 , 132 .

    . SOC

    ~ B/C 0.287 . 2010 5 14 2018

    , 2010 6 10 6,101 3 9,411( ) .

    .

    1 , .

  • xii

    1,176, 1,602 2,778 .

    289 , 920 .

    .

    , 15 (16 ) 1 3,138 . 2,633

    1 505 .

    .

    1 , 2 . 1 ,

    / 2,000 .

    .

  • xiii

    5,200 .

    4.

    .

    , .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    , .

  • xiv

    .

    , .

    .

    .

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    .

  • xv

    .

    , , .

    , , .

  • xvii

    . / 1

    1. 1

    2. 2

    . / 5

    1. 5. 5. 6

    2. 8. (F1) 9. 2013 11. 2014 11. 2015 12. 2015 13. 2018 14

    . / 17

    1. 17

    2. 20. 20. 22. 34. 41

  • xviii

    . 43. SOC 46. 49. 51. 61

    . / 69

    1. 69. 69. 70. 71. 72. 73. 73

    2. 74

    / 77

  • xix

    [ 1] 2

    [ 2] 5

    [ 3] 6

    [ 4] F1 10

    [ 5] 2013 11

    [ 6] 2014 12

    [ 7] 2015 13

    [ 8] 2015 14

    [ 9] 2018 15

    [ 10] F1 21

    [ 11] F1 21

    [ 12] F1 29

    [ 13] F1 30

    [ 14] 2013 32

    [ 15] 6 34

    [ 16] 35

    [ 17] 2010 2014 35

    [ 18] 36

    [ 19] 36

    [ 20] , , 37

    [ 21] 37

  • xx

    [ 22] 38

    [ 23] F1 39

    [ 24] F1 41

    [ 25] 2015 42

    [ 26] 2014 43

    [ 27] 44

    [ 28] 45

    [ 29] 47

    [ 30] - 48

    [ 31] 50

    [ 32] 52

    [ 33] 2014 52

    [ 34] 53

    [ 35] 54

    [ 36] 57

    [ 37] 2015 58

    [ 38] 60

    [ 39] 61

    [ 40] 61

    [ 41] 2002 62

    [ 42] 63

    [ 43] 2018 64

    [ 44] 66

    [ 45] 68

    [ 46] 70

  • xxi

    [ 1] 8

    [ 2] 17

    [ 3] 2014 55

  • 1. 1

    .

    1.

    . 1988 2002 , . 2002 , 2003 , 2011 , 2014 , 2015 , 2018 . .

    , . , . , , . .

    .

  • 2 .

    2.

    (F1) , 2013 , 2014 , 2015 , 2015 2018 6 .

    (F1)

    2013 2011, 2013, 2014, 2014 2015

    2014

    2015

    2015 2015

    2018 2018

    [ 1]

    1988 , 2002 , 2002 , 2003 2011 1) , .

    6 , 2), . .

    1) 1988(1989.4.3), 2002(2003.6.30), 2003(2003.3.28), 2003(2004.3.31), 2011 (2011.12.31)

    2) 3 .

  • 2. 3

    .2 ,

    , 3 , , 4 .

  • 1. 5

    .

    1.

    . 2 .3)

    2 . , , .

    , , ,

    , , , ,

    , ( ), , ( ), ,

    (, , )

    [ 2]

    : , 2013.

    3) , , , 2007.

  • 6 .

    . 4)

    10 .5)

    ()

    (50)

    (15)

    - - -

    (15)

    - () - -

    (20)

    - -

    -

    (50)

    (15)

    - - -

    (8)

    - -

    (7)

    - -

    (8)

    - -

    (12)

    - -

    [ 3]

    : , 2013.

    4) 2015 .

    5) ( 169) 21 ( 95) 21

  • 1. 7

    2 . 6) , .

    , . 50 .7) .8)

    . .

    9) .

    6) 10 .( 5)

    7) 148) 9) 10

    , (2012.5.23) , . .

  • 8 .

    /

    / , ,

    / , ,

    [ 1]

    :

    2.

    9 4 50%, 30% .10) , 11) 12) .

    ,

    10) 41 1( )

    11) 2018 2018 35 75% , 9 4 70% .

    12) 2015 50% .

  • 2. 9

    . .

    (F1) , 2013 , 2014 , 2015 , 2015 2018 .

    . (F1)

    (F1) 2010 2016 7 . 2010 2011 F1 F1 KOVO(Korea Auto Valley Operation)13) , 2012 .

    F1 14) 1 288 . 9.7%(1,001) 48.9%(5,031) . 15) 12.3%(1,268), 29.1%(2,988).

    1,643, 3,335, TV 295. 2010 391, 2011 248, 2012 200, 2013 170 . (FOM; Formula One Management)16) 2010 381, 2011 484, 2012 508 .

    13) KAVO 2006.9.13 F1 () . F1 (2011.12), F1 (2012.6) .

    14) 2010 2012 .

    15) F1 , .

    16) FOM (FIA;International Automobile Federation) F1 , TV .

  • 10 .

    ()

    10,288

    (100)1,001 5,031 1,268 2,988

    100 9.7 48.9 12.3 29.1

    4,465(43.4)

    768 1,507 - 2,190

    4,465 768 1,507 - 2,190

    550(5.3)

    132 418 - -

    550 132 418 - -

    5,273(51.3)

    101 3,106 1,268 798

    1,643 101 1,221 51 270

    2010 391 1 119 1 270

    2011 248 - 248 - -

    2012 200 50 130 20 -

    2013 170 50 90 30 -

    14~16 634 - 634 -

    3,335 - 1,737 1,217 381

    2010 381 - - 381

    2011 484 - 237 247 -

    2012 508 - 300 208 -

    13~16 1,962 - 1,200 762 -

    TV

    295 - 148 - 147

    2010 147 - - - 147

    2011 148 - 148 - -

    [ 4] F1 (: , %)

    : 94(2011 44, 2012 25, 2013 25) : , 2013.2.

  • 2. 11

    . 2013

    2013 993. 594, 38, 361 .

    288, 565, 140 , 29.0%, 56.8%, 14.2%.

    ()

    993

    (100)288 565 140

    100 29.0 56.8 14.2

    594(59.8)

    178 416 -

    38(3.8)

    19 19 -

    361(36.4)

    91 130 140

    [ 5] 2013 (: )

    : , 2013.5.

    . 2014 2014 2 2,905. 1 6,221, 1,230, 5,454 .

    , , , . (), () , .

  • 12 .

    5,039, 1 5,460, 24, 2,382 , 22.0%, 67.5%, 10%, 0.1%.

    70.8%, 23.8%, 5.4%.

    ()

    22,905

    (100)5,039 15,460 2,382 24

    100 22.0 67.5 10.4 0.1

    16,221(70.8)

    2,804 13,393 - 24

    13,510 2,541 10,969 - - 743 223 496 - 24

    131 40 91 - - 1,837 - 1,837 - -

    1,230(5.4)

    599 631 - -

    1,198 599 599 - - - - - - -

    32 - 32 - -

    5,454(23.8)

    1,636 1,436 2,382 -

    [ 6] 2014 (: , %)

    : , 2013.2.

    . 2015

    8,171 . 3,817, 866, 3,488.

    (4), (34), (1), (34) , .

  • 2. 13

    ()

    8,171

    (100)2,609 4,330 1,232

    () 100 31.9 53 15.1

    3,817(46.7)

    1,145 2,672 -

    2,402 720 1,682 - 1,005 302 703 -

    78 23 55 -

    113 34 79 - 219 66 153 -

    866

    (10.6)418 448 -

    791 396 395 - 75 22 53 -

    3,488(42.7)

    1,046 1,210 1,232

    [ 7] 2015 (: , %)

    : 2015 , 2013.2.

    2,609, 4,330, 1,232 , 31.9% 53% 15.1% .

    . 2015 17)

    538 . 71, 467.

    17) 1948 2 (International Military Sports Council) 4 .

  • 14 .

    269, 161, 108 , 50.0%, 30.0%, 20.0%.

    ()

    538

    (100)269 161 108

    () 100 50 30 20

    71(13.2)

    35 21 15

    467(86.8)

    234 140 93

    [ 8] 2015 (: , %)

    : 2015 , 2013.5.

    . 2018 2018 8 9,491 .

    6,993 6 6,694, 2 299 . 2018 35 75% .18) 6 4,892 , , 4 7,235 , 8,162, 9,045 . 7.8% 72.5% .

    18) 2018 35( ) 9 75 . , .

  • 2. 15

    5 2,104, 3,619, 1 7,657, 1 6,111 , 58.2% 4.1%, 19.7% 18.0%.

    ()

    89,491

    (100)52,104 3,619 17,657 16,111

    100% 58.2 4.1 19.7 18.0

    6,993(7.8)

    5,245 1,748 - -

    6,694 5,020 1,674 - -

    299 225 74 - -

    64,892(72.5)

    46,169 1,066 17,657 -

    47,235 46,169 1,066 - -

    5 5 - - -

    ~ 39,411 39,411 - - -

    VC 312 312 - - -

    6(~) 1,050 1,050 - - -

    59(~) 2,905 2,905 - - -

    3,552 2,486 1,066 - -

    8,162 - - 8,162 -

    9,045 - - 9,045 -

    IBC/MPC 450 - - 450 -

    17,606(19.7)

    690 805 - 16,111

    [ 9] 2018 (: , %)

    : , (IOC ) .

    : , 2013.2.

  • 1. 17

    .

    1.

    .

    (outputs)

    (reached)

    (outcomes)

    / ,

    ,

    ( )

    (

    )

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    IOC

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    ()

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  • 18 .

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  • 1. 19

    19) . , SOC , , .

    , () , , .

    , () . () () , . 6 .

    1~3 , , 20) .

    , . SOC , ,

    19) .20) 2013 , 2014 , 2015 , 2015

    2018 , F1 2010~2012 .

  • 20 .

    . 2002

    .

    2.

    . . . , SOC . (F1) .

    2006 3 21 FOM 2010 10 1 2016 . 1 229 21). F1 2009 9 .

    21) 2,064 , 1,192, 4,855 2016 1 229 . , (2011.7)49.

  • 2. 21

    2006.2.27 F1 2006.3.21 MBH22) FOM

    2006.06.21 2006.09.13 MBH KOVO 2007.12.05 KAVO FOM (Novation Agreement)2008.8.25 2009.9.16 2009.10. 9 2009.12.15 2010.10.22 1 2011.10.14 2 2012.10.12 3

    [ 10] F1

    : F1 , 2013.

    F1 2010 568, 2011 200, 2012 50, 2013 50 891 , 1,001 .

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 - - - 568 200 - - 768- 23) 10 100 22 - - - 132- - - - 1 50 50 101

    10 100 590 201 50 50 1,001

    [ 11] F1 (: )

    : F1 , 2013.

    22) F1 23) 2008 10, 2009 100, 2010 22 34

    2 .

  • 22 .

    . . .

    .

    , , , F1 , , . 24) . . 25) .

    . , , , , , . 2 , .

    24) .(, 1996:36-43) (impact) .

    25) (Cost-Benefit Analysis) .

  • 2. 23

    , , , (-) . , SOC (-) . SOC (+) (-) . . 26) . (autonomous) , .27) .28)

    6 . (Net Present Value; NPV) / (Benefit-Cost ratio; B/C ratio) .

    , .

    26) (crowding out effect) . . . . . .

    27) R.N. McKean, Efficiency in Government through System Analysis(New York: Wiley, 1958) (, , , 61~62)

    28) . 1 2 .(Arthur Maas, Benefit-Cost Analysis: Its Relevance to Public Investment Decision, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 80(May 1966), 208~226. (, , , 62))

  • 24 .

    (1) 2018 , . .29)

    ( ) 2.2 . (c)30)

    0.545 , . 1 , 1 1 . 20 4,973, 8 7,546, 23 25 . 2.2 . 31) .

    , . , () .

    29) 119 .30) , .31)

    .

  • 2. 25

    (2) 32) . 2 (1 9,784), (2 1,200), (7,617) 4 8,601 .

    . , , .

    (FDI) . .

    , , , , 33) . 3 .

    , EIU34) 52 1998~2002 , 1,04035) , , 3 6 8

    32) , 2014 , 2006.7.333) , , 3

    .34) Economist Intelligence Unit .

    . 60 / .

    35) 1998 1 2002 4 20 52 2052=1,040 .

  • 26 .

    0.8% 36). 1998 4 2002 3 2 , 2002 . . , .

    , , , . , 37).

    , .

    (3) F1 F1 . () () .38)

    36) (2002/2 , 2002/3 ), (1998/1 , 2002/2 ), (1998/3 ), (2000/3 ), (2000/3 ), (1998/4 ) 8 . 1,040 8/1,040=0.008 . 3 4.6% , .

    37) GDP 1 GDP, (+/GDP) 3 .

  • 2. 27

    , .

    , . .

    , , , , , , , .

    39) . 13~14% 40) 5%, 8% . 5% 8% (NPV) 0 , 10% 15% (NPV) 0 .

    , 2,300 . .

    . ,

    38) (2004) 62 .39) ()

    , , , . 40) (2001) 387 .

  • 28 .

    F1 , , F1 . 41) , F1 . , 25~31% , . . , F1 . , , .

    F1 42) (KDI PIMAC) .

    43) F1 12 1, F1 12 30 2, F1 7 30 3 , , 5 , , 5 44) 9 . , 1(F1 12 ) F1 , 5 , , 5 NPV -2,131 5,200, -2,824 200, -3,451 5,800 . 2(F1 12, 30 ) NPV -1,856 7,200( 5 ), -2,527 3,800( ), -3,152 4,100( 5

    41) 60 .42)

    . 43) KDI , 2010 F1 , 2007.744) F1 18 ,

    5 , , 5 .

  • 2. 29

    ) , 3(F1 7, 30 ) -1,774 8,500( 5 ), -2,179 4,200( ), -2,567 500( 5 ) .

    1 2 3 5

    -213,152 -185,672 -177,485

    -282,402 -252,738 -217,942

    5 -345,158 -315,241 -256,705

    [ 12] F1 (: )

    : KDI , F1 , 2007.7.

    20%, 10% , , 10% , 20% NPV (PI)45) . , 1~3 5 , , 5 NPV (-) , PI 0.9 . , F1 , , F1 KAVO 46) .

    45) (PI : Profitability Index) . PI 1 . , PI 1 PI .

    46) 425, 2,500 .

  • 30 .

    20%

    10%

    10%

    20%

    1

    5 0.80 0.76 0.72 0.68 0.65

    0.68 0.65 0.61 0.59 0.56

    5 0.57 0.54 0.51 0.49 0.47

    2

    5 0.90 0.86 0.81 0.77 0.73

    0.82 0.78 0.73 0.70 0.66

    5 0.74 0.70 0.66 0.63 0.60

    3

    5 0.89 0.83 0.78 0.74 0.70

    0.82 0.77 0.73 0.69 0.65

    5 0.76 0.71 0.67 0.63 0.60

    [ 13] F1

    : KDI , F1 , 2007.7.

    F1 , , 2007 F1 F1 2010~2012 . KDI .

    (4) 2013

  • 2. 31

    , .47) , .

    . , . , .

    , () . , . .

    , 488, 488 () , 21(4.3%) , , , 432(88.5%) . (15), (20) . , 467 .48)

    47) , 2013 , 2008. 4, 9148) .

  • 32 .

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 - - 82 59 19 - 160 - - 35 30 9 - 74 2 120 35 29 9 - 195 - - - - - 3 3 - - 15 - - - 15 - - 13 - - 7 20 - - - - - 16 16

    - - - - - 5 5 2 120 180 118 37 31 488 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    () 2 - - - - - 2 - 120 - - - - 120

    - - 105 - - - 105

    - - 16 - - - 16/ - - 24 - - - 24

    - - 35 31 - - 66 - - - 26 - - 26

    - - - 18 - - 18 - - - 46 - - 46

    - - - - 31 - 31() - - - - 6 - 6

    - 1.55 4.65 4.65 4.65 15.5 31 2 121.55 184.65 125.65 41.65 15.5 488

    [ 14] 2013 (: )

    : 2013 , . 2009~2013 5 5%, 15%,15%,15%, 50% .

    : , 2013 , 2008. 4.,

  • 2. 33

    , (NPV) /(BCR) , -1.3 0.99 . 0, / 1 2013 . .

    . . .

    (5) 6 49) .50)

    , 539, 241 () , , 108(20.0%) , , 431(80.0%) . , 431 .51) .52)

    49) , .

    50) , 6 , 2010.4 13051) . 52) ,

    .

  • 34 .

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    30 254 413 914 2,711 1,886 6,208 12 104 169 373 967 943 2,568 - - - - - 1,996 1,996

    105 896 1,456 3,218 9,195 12,062 26,932

    63 538 873 1,931 5,517 7,237 16,159 210 1,792 2,911 6,436 18,390 24,124 53,863 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    - 187 467 560 467 187 1,868

    - - 237 1,659 1,896 948 4,740

    - - - - 386 129 515

    - 57 38 115 250 6,128 6,588 - 68 34 203 2,623 1,032 3,960 - 575 1,041 2,111 10,412 15,070 29,209 209 905 1,094 1,788 2,355 631 6,982

    209 1,792 2,911 6,436 18,389 24,125 53,862

    [ 15] 6 (: )

    : , 6 , 2010. 4.

    .

    1988 2002 . 2003 . 2010 , 2014 . 2018 .

  • 2. 35

    8,497 62 1,246

    2004. 2.14-2.28 664 22 1082005. 1.24~2.5 689 26 1092006. 2.5~2.17 742 30 1112007. 2.4~2.16 899 32 135

    2008. 2.17~2.26 751 29 1152009. 2.17~2.26 834 29 1142010. 1.21~1.30 834 29 1142011. 2.12~2.21 969 33 1412012. 2.8~2.19 905 30 1362013. 1.5~1.17 1,200 39 163

    [ 16] (: )

    : , 2013.2.

    2010, 2014 515( 162, 127, 226) .

    2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 144 - 42 107 222 515 57 - - 29 76 162 25 - 25 40 37 127

    62 - 17 38 109 226

    [ 17] 2010 2014 (: )

    : 2018 , 2013.2.

    2010, 2014 53) , . 2004 3 2010 7

    53) 49 .

  • 36 .

    1 6,836 , .

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 36,789 36,311 36,133 37,929 37,171

    [ 18] (: )

    : , 2013.2.

    . 2012 1 215 9,199.

    (A)

    (B) (A-B) 2010 2011 2012

    11,530 1,315 18 573 724 10,215 10,218 1,019 8 522 489 9,199 1,050 260 10 15 235 790APT 262 36 - 36 - 226

    [ 19] (: , 2012 )

    : , 2013.2.

    . 2007 125.2% 2012 338% , 436 .

  • 2. 37

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 352,574 636,231 759,935 952,652 905,074 842,686 125.2 238.8 312.8 340.6 343.8 338.0 529 7,524 16,243 22,826 12,711 9,799 12,037 24,571 34,881 53,445 50,283 43,69254) 0.04 0.31 0.47 0.43 0.25 0.22

    [ 20] , , (: , %, )

    : , , 2013.

    , , . 21 1 1,445 2012 12 2,954 25.8% . 4,000 , 2007 .

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

    55) 5,836 1,743 29.9 452 64 502 162 423 140 2,000 295 14.8 69 7 63 25 22 109 1,873 664 35.4 21 225 91 56 109 162

    1,033 252 24.4 - 3 135 43 39 32 703 0 0 - - - - - -

    11,445 2,954 25.8 542 299 791 286 593 443

    [ 21] (: , %)

    : , 2013.2.

    54) =/ .

    55) 268 18~40.

  • 38 .

    . .

    F1 , .

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 56.2 54.4 53.6 53.9 53.6 52.2 51.9

    95.0 93.3 88.7 85.7 90.4 83.4 88.8 70.6 68.7 60.8 59.2 55.5 54.1 52.1 72.6 70.6 61.9 56.7 50.7 52.7 48.6 66.3 68.3 67.7 71.2 75.7 70.0 65.8 54.6 54.1 50.1 47.8 42.9 43.2 42.0 71.0 68.9 67.4 61.2 54.5 52.1 51.9 63.7 60.0 63.0 63.3 59.3 60.2 62.5

    70.3 68.8 66.5 66.1 64.1 59.3 60.1 22.4 21.8 24.2 23.3 21.4 20.8 21.4

    25.2 25.6 27.1 27.0 25.4 25.1 24.1 29.0 29.4 30.4 29.7 28.1 24.0 28.3 17.9 18.0 18.4 15.3 17.5 17.3 18.6 11.9 13.6 10.6 11.0 10.4 11.5 13.5 22.4 19.6 21.9 20.7 19.1 21.7 21.4 29.8 31.4 30.5 32.1 32.5 34.2 35.2 30.3 29.9 26.3 25.9 24.9 25.7 24.9

    [ 22] (: %)

    :

    F1 , 2010 F1 152, TV 17 194 , 381, 373 919 725 . 2011 TV

  • 2. 39

    16 44 315 121 , FOM 484 103 610 . 2012 50, 25 347 508, 222 743 396 .

    2010 2011 2012

    - - TV- - - - - -

    1521700

    15

    10

    168331013181

    4428

    13433134

    23502565

    194 315 347 856

    - - - -

    38114718

    373

    48414814

    279

    508-

    13222

    919 925 743 2,587 725 610 396 1,731

    [ 23] F1 (: )

    : 1. (2010 47,703, 2011 52,473, 2012 43,739, 2013 43,739)

    2. 2012 FOM FOM F1 2012 33 TV .

    3. 2012 65 35, 26, 2, 2.

    : F1 , 2013.

  • 40 .

    F1 . 56) FOM . 57) F1 . 2016 57758) , F1 4,000 .

    F1 2,975 . F1 868 () 300 59) 600 , 2,000 . 2013 800 , 700 1,500 , . , 15 .

    56) 2012 46 .57) 2012 50, 25, 73

    542 .58) 3(2010 2012) . 59) . 17 37

  • 2. 41

    ()

    2012

    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

    F1

    510

    (4.85)86,803 56,803 0

    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    F1

    510

    (4.0)12,692 12,692

    508 508 508 1,777 13,708 - - - 1,269 11,423 508 508 508 508 2,285

    F1()

    510

    (4.80)197,987 5,000 192,987

    159,263 2,063 2,063 2,063 54,335 150,000 - - - 42,987 9,263 2,063 2,063 2,063 11,348

    [ 24] F1 (: )

    : 2013 800 , 700 (1,500 ) : , 2013.4.

    FOM F1 , 1 1,169 60).

    .

    .

    2015 61) .62) 80%, 60% .

    60) , (2011.7)4961) 2013 . 62) ,

    .

  • 42 .

    96 1,500 . 50 55 7,800 . 151 9,300 .

    170 10,624 9,615 5,578

    37 4,269 4,808 2,241 10 423 418 222 25 1,463 1,978 768 21 3,345 1,365 1,756

    5 298 313 157

    2 33 49 17 38 286 376 150 7 22 40 12 20 481 262 253

    5 4 6 2

    [ 25] 2015 (: )

    : 1. World Bank 1 (GNI) 1,178 , 2011 .

    2. ( 1,877,200, 1,645,400, 2,253,000, 680,000, 1,753,000)

    3. 7 , 1 1,500 .: 2015

    2014 . 2007 . , 2014 . 2014 226 . . (OCA; Olympic Counil of Asia) 50 2,000 . 1563) 30 . 250 .

  • 2. 43

    2007 1,369 : 6 75 : 2

    2008 2,862 : 5 53 : 3 6 : 2

    2009 3,912 : 7 129 : 2 2

    2010 3,262 : 12 110 : 4 4 : 7

    2011 3,202 : 14 89 : 5 6 : 7

    2012 3,228 : 10 78 : 2 2 : 11

    2013() 3,190 2014() 1,571 -

    22,596

    [ 26] 2014 (: )

    : 2014 , 2013.

    . 500 300 64) . . .

    63) 2014 .(: 757 2,000 = 1,514,000, : 57(50) 2,000 13 = 1,482,000)

    64) 38 131

  • 44 .

    132 .

    1. , , 2. 3. 4. 5. ,

    6. , ,

    7. 8. 9. ,

    10. ,

    [ 27]

    [ 28] 2014 2015 2011, 2013, 2014, 2014 2015 , 2018 2018 .

    SOC . , .

  • 2. 45

    F1

    F1 4,270 768 3,502 (202)2014

    5,288 765 4,523

    1,882 565 1,317 1,733 520 1,213 1,665 499 1,166 1,567 470 1,097

    577 288.5 288.52015

    1,118 335 783 684 205 479

    791 396 3952018

    1,095 821 274

    // 1,228 921 307 1,311 983 328/ 1,361 1,021 340() 1,079 809 270() 620 465 155

    - 39,411 39,411 - 59(-) 1,248 1,248 - - 3,100 3,100 (2010)

    (-) 23,841 12,605 - 6(-) 1,597 1,597 -

    6(-) 781 781 -

    6(-) 1,760 1,760 -6(-) 1,065 1,065 -

    408 562 393 169

    13 519 363 156 1,214 850 364

    [ 28] (: )

    : , 2013.

  • 46 .

    . SOC - 1995.9.27~1996.5 1 8,652, B/C 1.03 . 2007 BTL 3 8,573(106.8% ) , 63% 65) 2007 . , B/C 0.287 .

    66) DB(KTDB; Korea Transport Database) 2004 O/D67) . - , ~ . , 34, 24, 57 . , 50, 47, 65 . ~~~~~~ 68). () .

    65) 5 100 20 .

    66) KDI , 2007 ~ , 2007.667) () (origin) (destination)

    () (O/D survey) , .

    68) - 450m 430m 430m .

  • 2. 47

    34 24 57 41.8km 29.4km 71.2km 75km/h 74km/h 75km/h

    50 47 65 10 21 31 30 16 24

    10 10 10

    45.1km 49.5km 65.0km 28.5km 17.1km 16.0km 16.6km 32.4km 49.0km

    57km/h 64km/h 40km/h 101km/h 94km/h 95km/h : ~ : ~ : ~

    [ 29]

    : KDI , - , 2007.6.

    , 1( ), 2( ) . , B/C 0.287 , B/C 0.380 . 2 B/C 0.291, 0.386 , .

  • 48 .

    B/C 1 2

    0.287 0.291 0.380 0.386

    1 B/C=0.380, NPV=-12,335.7, IRR=-1.01%

    [ 30] -

    : KDI , - , 2007.6.

    ~ ~(270km) - , ~ 69), ~ . , 30% (18) 10 . ~ 0.287( ) .

    2006~2010 . , .

    ~ , ,

    69) . ( ) .

  • 2. 49

    . .

    , ~ 2010 5 14 2018 2010 6 10 6,101 3 9,411( ) . SOC .

    .

    , , . , , SOC .

    . 70,000( 50,000, 20,000) 2,122, 2,338 4,460 . 2006 70) KDI .

    . .

    70) , 2014 , 2006.7.3

  • 50 .

    2012 15071), 2013 615, 2014 41172) 1,176 . 2013 615 , 2013 4~7(4) (KDI PIMAC) 73). 1,176, 1,602 2,778 .

    (A)

    12 (B)

    3 ()(C)

    (C-A)

    70,000 61,628 61,628 8,372

    50,000 30,304 30,304 19,696 20,000 31,324 31,324 11,324

    4,460 4,900 4,900 440 - - 1,176 1,176

    2,122 4,900 3,724 1,602 2,338 - - 2,338

    [ 31] (: , )

    :

    1 , . 2014 . 50% , 2013 4

    71) 2011.12.31 72) 2012.12.31 73) 800 5,200

    .

  • 2. 51

    74) . .

    . 75) 289 , 1 (2012.7.4) 920 . .

    .

    20% 80% . 1988 2002 , 2014 88 31.4% 2002 42.5% 2014 70.8% . 88 15.1% , 2002 19.8%, 2014 23.8% .

    74) () 44( ) . , 49( ) 2 .

    75) (IOC) .

  • 52 .

    88 2002 2014

    23,826 (100) 12,182 (100) 22,905 (100)

    7,473 (31.4) 5,169 (42.5) 16,221 (70.8) 12,742 (53.5) 4,579 (37.7) 1,230 (5.4) 3,611 (15.1) 2,434 (19.8) 5,454 (23.8)

    [ 32] (: , %)

    : 14

    2014 1 3,510 83.3% , 743(4.6%), 131(0.8%) .76) .

    () 16,221(100%) 2,804 13,393 24

    13,510(83.3%) 2,541 10,969 - 743(4.6%) 223 496 24

    131(0.8%) 40 91 - 1,837(11.3%) - 1,837 -

    [ 33] 2014 (: )

    : , 2013.2.

    76) 2012 34 19 8 7 . 8 2 5,000 2016 .

  • 2. 53

    50,000 70,000 . 34 .

    5 71,330

    ,

    ,

    ,

    [ 34]

    : (2014 )

    , 2 . 2 , 15 . , 30 . .

  • 54 .

    100, 350, 600 1,250 . . 900 .

    100

    ,

    200

    350 600

    1,250

    [ 35] (: )

    : , 2014

    4,900 51 900 , , 77) .

    77) , 800 5,200 .

  • 2. 55

    [ 3] 2014

  • 56 .

    .

    (2009.9) , ( 1), (()), (88), (88), ( ), (), ( ), ( , ) , (), (), (/), (), (), (, ), () .

    2006 , . 2006 , (70m42m, 19m), (44m22m, 8m) .78) , .

    () , . , () . , , .

    78) () (10~ 3) .

  • 2. 57

    ()

    ( )

    4,900

    , 900 () -

    50 50 - -

    373 88 88() ,

    358 45

    - -

    1,545

    386

    88(),

    1,665

    416

    () (

    ) -

    () - () -

    1,715

    101 -

    -/

    20 -

    1,860

    465

    ( )

    1

    672

    28

    - -

    (BMX) 134 - - 13,138 2,633

    [ 36] (: )

    : 16 .:

    . 2003

  • 58 .

    79) 72 88 () 373 1/4 . 2015 [ 37] 86, 10~45, 28, 20 .

    8,554 , ,

    2,205 , () (, ) ,

    4,487

    (8501,000) ,

    1,049 (9241,000) , , ,

    1,051 , (,) ,

    2,269

    , () (, ) ,

    2,761 (1,000)

    2,038

    (2,7305,000) ,

    [ 37] 2015 (: )

    :

    79) (, , (1,3142,000), , ), ( (01,000), , ), ( , ), (, , , , )( )

  • 2. 59

    2014 15 80) . , , , , , , , , , , , 1/4 81). , (BMX) 82). , [ 36] 2,633 . 15 1 3,138 20% , 1 505 .

    . 2009 2012 1 7,897 . 6,850 38.3% . 1 505 .

    80) 2014 16 .

    81) .

    82) , (BMX) .

  • 60 .

    2009 2010 2011 2012 78,283 73,318 72,657 79,866 304,124 23,343 26,949 27,401 28,021 105,714 8,386 4,937 1,943 2,631 17,897

    AG 1,850 3,500 500 1,000 6,850 2 289 320 254 323 1,186, 6,247 1,117 1,189 1,308 9,861

    474 1,331 1,736 2,012 5,553 29.8 36.8 37.7 35.1 34.7

    [ 38] (: , %)

    : 2010 : , 2013.2

    . . 83) , . 2007 1 4,741 2011 6 4,166 .

    84) . 5 . 2011 361 .

    83) GM , U-city , , , 1 , 672 .

    84) , 9,049 .

  • 2. 61

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1,474,148 1,946,749 3,513,445 4,847,504 6,416,621 171.1 232.4 241.0 290.2 326.0 119,475 84,308 39,318 33,623 5,028 64,484 83,632 156,563 220,533 296,515

    47,057 34,524 36,307 19,615 36,105

    [ 39] (: , %)

    : , , 2013.

    2011 6 4,000 2012 , 20132015 . 1.52.9 , .

    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 6,416,620 799,572 2,881,300 1,726,900 1,561,900 406,900

    [ 40] (: )

    : , , 2013.

    . . .

    2002 . 2002 2 10 .

  • 62 .

    () () 216,712 64,728 2,033 330,578 53,926 2,269 512,479 65,857 3,000 441,628 50,100 3,200 329,225 43,121 1,588 172,378 40,782 1,217 911,058 43,606 1,514 425,000 43,138 2,522 480,326 42,477 1,331 134,122 42,256 1,125

    19,779

    [ 41] 2002 (: )

    : ( 318, 412, 860, 160) :

    10 2009~2012 , , , 6 . , , 63, 33, 28 . 3 . .

  • 2. 63

    2009 2010 2011 2012 10,721 10,432 9,987 9,638 40,778 1,710 315 68 621 2,084 57 122 146 604 929 493 972 394 987 872 3,653 3,337 3,531 4,417 14,938 1,637 1,492 1,569 1,645 6,343 358 375 174 150 1,057 574 1,208 498 401 2,681 764 665 805 547 2,781 785 593 1,157 792 3,327

    [ 42] (: )

    : , 2013.2.

    , . . 2018 . 15 13 7 6 .

    1,095, , 1,228 . 2 2 4 4,371 . 1 . 1 1,079 633 .

  • 64 .

    (BID)

    13 6,993

    8 2,528

    L=3,360m1,095

    L=2,120m

    L=1,191m

    - L=583m

    K125, K98 -/ L=7.5km -

    L=4.0km -//

    L=1,600m 1,228 ,

    L=250m

    205

    - L=110m

    L=900m

    L=478m- L=800m

    L=130m

    5 4,465

    8,500 1,311 ,

    3,500 94

    /

    12,000 1,361 ,

    () 10,000 1,079 () 6,000 620

    [ 43] 2018 (: )

    : .: 2018 , 2013.2.

  • 2. 65

    2018 , , 4 . . , /, 2, ( ) 4 , .

    685 8,000 9 1 76 2,000 . 153 6,000 2 1 76 8,000 . 4 6 . 21 9,000 4 1 5 4,000 . 1 361 6,000 67 .

  • 66 .

    ()

    (6) , , , , ,

    10,249(1,708)

    (1) 2,801(2,801)

    (8)

    , , , 2 , , , ,

    11,937(1,492)

    (2) , 1,536(768)

    (1) 1,562(1,562)

    /(1) 1,515+2,101=3,616(3,616)

    (2) , 1,874(937)

    /(2) , 1,463+1,914=3,377(1,688)

    /(4) , , , 2,507+2,699=5,206

    (1,301)

    (1) 1,135(1,135)

    /(9)

    , , , , , , , ,

    3,550+3,308=6,858(762)

    (0) 576

    [ 44]

    : 1. 2012 , 2011 .2. , 3. ( ) 1

    : ,

  • 2. 67

    .

    1 2 85) . 1 633 , 32 3,885(2012 ) 21 9,152 86) 2 , . 2 87). .88)

    / . . .

    2,000 89) . , 2018 .90)

    85) IOC .

    86) . () .

    87) . 2013 6 .

    88) .

    89) / 1 , 2 , .

  • 68 .

    .91)

    . 92) . [ 45] . 2005~2012 93) 393 50 .

    , 5,200 94) .

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 106 108 129 141 85 170 93 193

    3,777 2,780 4,000 2,592 4,798 2,592 2,168 3,607 6,978 7,091 6,592 8,672 8,078 9,105 9,528 9,559 3,201 4,311 2,592 6,080 3,280 6,513 7,360 5,952

    [ 45] (: , )

    : , , .: , 2013.2.

    90) 2010 50 , 1998 100 .(, , 2012.)

    91) 1994 .

    92) FC .93) , . 94) 2 4,900, 800

    .

  • 1. 69

    .

    1.

    . . 2014 2015 , , . 2018 .

    . , .

    . . (UK sport)95) , , , , , , .96) . .

    95) . (the Department for Culture, Media and Sport; DCMS) .

    96) UK sport, Major Sports Events: The Guide, 2005.4.

  • 70 .

    52( ) 51 ( ) .

    .

    1. 2. ,

    3. 4.

    5.

    6.

    .

    [ 46]

    .

    . 2012 5 23 . . .

  • 1. 71

    . 2014 . . . ( ) .

    . . . .

    .

    , . , .

    , .

  • 72 .

    . , 97) 98) . .

    . . . , KDI .

    , . . , , .

    97) (2012.2.7. , 95)98)

    .

  • 1. 73

    . .

    . 2018 , , . 2014 16 , 1 .

    . , , , . . , .

    , , . . .

  • 74 .

    2.

    . , . . .

    . . . , . F1 . . . . .

    .99) ,

    99) .( , 2013.5.8 )

  • 2. 75

    30% , , 5 , , (B/C) . . , . . , , . .

    . . . - , .

    . . .

  • 76 .

    . , . , , , , , 1 . , 1, 2 1 633 , 2 . 6 .

    , .

  • 77

    , , 2011.7, 2010 , 2011, , 2013, : , 2010.6, , , 2004, 2014 , 2006.7, 2013 , 2008, 6 , 2010, 2013 , 2012.9, 2014

    , 2008.7, 2018 , 2008.4, , 1999, , 2009.9, F1 , 2006, , , 2007, 2018 , 2012 , 2012 F1 , 2012, (3), 2001.12, 2010 F1 , 2007, 2014 , 2009, 2007 ~ , 2007.6, 2002 FIFA , 2003, , 2012.10

    UK sport, Major Sports Events: The Guide, 2005.4

  • 13-08

    2013 5 29

    1(tel 02 2070 3114)

    (tel 02 2273 5090)1. .2.

    . (tel 02 788 3782)ISBN 978-89-6073-641-2 93350 , 2013

  • . 1. 2.

    . 1. . .

    2. . (F1) . 2013 . 2014 . 2015 . 2015 . 2018

    . 1. 2. . . . . . . SOC . . .

    . 1. . . . . . .

    2.

    [ 1] [ 2] [ 3] [ 4] F1 [ 5] 2013 [ 6] 2014 [ 7] 2015 [ 8] 2015 [ 9] 2018 [ 10] F1 [ 11] F1 [ 12] F1 [ 13] F1 [ 14] 2013 [ 15] 6 [ 16] [ 17] 2010 2014 [ 18] [ 19] [ 20] , , [ 21] [ 22] [ 23] F1 [ 24] F1 [ 25] 2015 [ 26] 2014 [ 27] [ 28] [ 29] [ 30] - [ 31] [ 32] [ 33] 2014 [ 34] [ 35] [ 36] [ 37] 2015 [ 38] [ 39] [ 40] [ 41] 2002 [ 42] [ 43] 2018 [ 44] [ 45] [ 46]

    [ 1] [ 2] [ 3] 2014