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Transcript of 130314_Chicoutimi Conference FINAL
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Andre Gauthier
Profils de carrire
Chicoutimi
Exploration minire travers le monde;gnration, dveloppement et financement
de projets
Andre Gauthier
Le 15 Mars 2013
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Andre Gauthier
Pays visites
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Andre Gauthier
AGENDA
Explorations: 1975 -2013
Decouvertes: 1975 - 2013
Production Miniere
Prix des Metaux et taux de change Geopolitique
Financement Minier
Nouvelles Economies
Evolution du Risque
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Depenses Dexploration
1975-2010
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Depenses Dexploration
Monde 89-12
Worldwide Exploration Budgets byCompany Type, 1999-2009(as a percentage of worldwide exploration)
Significant Exploration-Related
Financings by Junior Companies
Budgets*, 2008-2012 (US$ billion)
Estimated Global Nonferrous Exploration Budget Totals1989-2012 (US$ billion)
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Type de Compagnies
1998-2010 (US$ mil)
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Depenses Dexploration
Type Stage
By objective, 2001-2008(1,912 companies with a total budget of $12.6 bill.)
Por stage, 2001-2008(as a percentage of world exploration)
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Depenses Dexploration
Base-metal et Or $Mil
YearsBase
metalsGold Total
1950s 3 0.5 3.5
1960s 7.2 1.3 8.5
1970s 9.3 2.7 12
1980s 7.3 16.7 24
1990s 10 18 28
2000s 32 25 57
2010s 26 24 50
Total 94.98 88.64 183.62
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Top Destinations for Nonferrous
Exploration, 2012
Source: Metals Economics Group
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Number of deposits found each year-
by size: 1975-2011
Source: Minex Consulting
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Depenses Dexploration Or Onces Trouvees:
1950-2010
Source: Minex Consulting
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Couts de Decouvertes Auriferes
1950 - 2010
Source: Minex Consulting
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Decouverte et Production Or Ratio
1950-2010
Source: Minex Consulting
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Depots decouverts Annuel commodite
1975-2011
Source: Minex Consulting
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Decouvertes Majeures
1975-2012
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Decouvertes Auriferes dans le monde
Source: Minex Consulting
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Decouvertes Annuelles localisation
1975 -2011
Source: Minex Consulting
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Onzes trouvees par region
1950-2010
Source: Minex Consulting
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Decouvertes Annuelles type de compagnie
1975-2011
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Production Miniere Mondiale
1950-2008
In 2008, there were in the world more than 1.4 billion tons of metals, twice the amount of the late
1970s and more than seven times more than in 1950.
Since the mid-twentieth century, there have been 40 billion tons of metals: aluminum, arsenic,
cadmium, chromium, copper, gold, lead, mercury, nickel and steel.
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Production Aurifere
Gold production growth exceeded population growth from the 1840s to 1940s
It declined after WWII for almost 50 years, but started up again in 1989.
Maybe the long term equilibrium point is about 3/4 ounce per person ?
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GDP 2011- Evolution OCDE
Second MileniumIncome trend growth thresholds
Commodity demand intensity correlates with
growth thresholds
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Production Miniere Mondiale
Snap shot 2006
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Mining Industry Value
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Activite Miniere Globale 2011
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Production by Deposit Type
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US Dollar Price
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0.000
0.200
0.400
0.600
0.800
1.0001.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
ZINC US$/lb
0.000
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.00030.000
35.000
40.000
45.000
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
SILVER US$/Oz.
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
COPPER US$/lb
0.000
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1,000.000
1,200.000
1,400.000
1,600.000
1,800.000
2,000.000
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
GOLD US$/Oz.tr.
Prix de Metaux Mondial - Evolution
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Indice Prix de Metaux
1948-2012
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
1948
1949
1951
1953
1954
1956
1958
1959
1961
1963
1964
1966
1968
1969
1971
1973
1974
1976
1978
1979
1981
1983
1984
1986
1988
1989
1991
1993
1994
1996
1998
1999
2001
2003
2004
2006
2008
2009
2011
2013
BerlinWallFalls
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Indice Prix de Metaux
1948-2012
Main events table
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Dette Americaine Globale 2011
Total American Debt is USD50 Trillions and GDP
is $16.5 Trillons
The current source of american dollars still being
the money of the next war
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US$ Value
OR vs US$ Euro vs US$
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Robert Mundell et le Chaos du
Changement
"The key initiative that could be taken
to improve the economy would be to
stabilize the exchange rate dollar-
euro"
What would be the winning formula
for today? What advice would you
give to Washington to help reverse
the situation of the moribund U.S.economy?
Economy Nobel Price 1999
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Conclusions
China a vu limportance de lor et sen assure le controle : Production -vente
Speciallement en temps de crise
Haut Risque de Devaluation de US $ , moyen long terme
Or en hausse
Pression pour inflation globale acceleree Crise financiere pas pres de se resorber
Chine et Asie seront plus fort apres la crise
Deviendront la source des financement a risque (venture capital).
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Compagnies listees en bourses
2002 vs. 2008 vs. 2013 majeures et junior
Global Markets at a Glance - December 2008
TSX TSXVTSX &TSXV LSE AIM
LSE &AIM ASX JSE HKEx NYSE
NYSEAlternext SSE PSE BVL Total
Number of Mining Issuers Listed 356 1071 1427 42 174 216 684 55 84 48 68 23 188 Juniors
18 Grandes2649
Quoted Market Cap. (CS Billions) $207.0 $8.7 $215.7 $199.3 $7.9 $207.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
New Mining Listings 42 96 138 2 7 9 29 2 3 3 5 N/A N/A N/A
Equity Capital Raised* (C$ Billions) $5.2 $3.0 $8.3 S3.9 $1.8 $5.7 $3.1 $0.04 $1.3 $2.9 $0.0 N/A N/A N/A
Number of Deals 213 1382 1595 2 119 121 246 1 1 4 0 N/A N/A N/A
TSX and TSXV, Stock Exch ange websites. Gamah Intern al
TSX- TSX Venture 2002 ASX LSE - AIM JSE NYSE Amex
196 321 44 52 46 16
920 34 _
1116 321 78 52 46 16
Global Markets at a Glance January 2013
TSX TSXVTSX &TSXV LSE AIM
LSE &AIM ASX JSE HKEx NYSE
NYSEAlternext SSE PSE BVL Total
Number of Mining Issuers Listed 356 1218 1574 186 78 264 684 55 84 48 68 23 1817 Juniors28 Majors
2863
Quoted Market Cap. (CS Billions) $207.0 $8.7 $215.7 $199.3 $7.9 $207.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
New Mining Listings 42 96 138 2 7 9 29 2 3 3 5 N/A N/A N/A
Equity Capital Raised* (C$ Billions) $5.2 $3.0 $8.3 S3.9 $1.8 $5.7 $3.1 $0.04 $1.3 $2.9 $0.0 N/A N/A N/A
Number of Deals 213 1382 1595 2 119 121 246 1 1 4 0 N/A N/A N/A
TSX and TSXV, Stock Exch ange websites. Gamah Intern al
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Capital leve pas Destination (OR)
2008-1H 2011
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Pays visites
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Global Events
Berlin Wall - 1989 Gulf War - 1991
US Crisis - 2008 Euro Crisis - 2010
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National Debt by Country
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Global Impact of Euro Crisis
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Quebec, Separatism
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Comparison Solcialist World Map
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Historical Solcialist World Map
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Leconomie chinois a progresse dramatiquement dans
les derniers 30 ans, et continuera sa marche
China became the world's second-largest economy in 2010 and is likelyto overtake the US around 2025 to become the world's largest economy
C i i Chi i l
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Consommatioin Chinoise et les causes
de cette croissance
*Note: ROW stands for Rest of World and APAC stands for Asia-Pacific
Source: CEIC; CRU; UN; World Steel Association; The Beijing Axis Analysis
*Note: ROW stands for Rest of WorldSource: World Bank; CNBS; CEIC; The Beijing Axis Analysis
Source: CNBS; Deutsche Bank; Morgan Stanley; The Beijing Axis Analysis
China's economy is heading for a soft landing -
more moderate and more sustainable growth
Asia has become a fundamentally important engine ofcapital, trade and commodity consumption worldwide
China has dramatically increased its share of world
consumption of key metals and minerals over the pasttwo decades. The drivers of this trend remain intact
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Plusieurs stages de Developpment
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Importance des pays Asiatiques
In the last decade,Asia has emerged asan attractivedestination forforeign investments -China has attractedthe most inflows
The Asian regionis gradually also
becoming aprominent sourceof OFDI - China's
OFDI stock isexpected to reach
USD 560 billionby 2015
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Croissance de la Demande Chinoise
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Croissance de la Chine
I ti t i i Chi i
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Investissements miniers Chinois
2006- 2012 ( 7 ans )
I t t Gl b l d l Chi R
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Interet Global de la Chine sur Resources
Principales
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Investissements Chinois Details 1
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Investissements Chinois Details 2
E l ti I d t i E l ti Mi i
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1975 2005 Exploration de Surface
1980 - 2013 Requis Environmental
2000 - 2013 Comunautes et la $, participation
2010-2013 Les Governments $ ; Nationalisme
2005 2013 Exploration en profondeur
Evolution Industrie Exploration Miniere
1975 2013
Conclusions Generales
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Conclusions Generales
Financement
Exploration a passe de Majeur a Junior , mas pas plus efficace
Junior pensent Court terme Aucune Approche long terme dans lindusrie
Majeur , tres peu Grass root , donc peu Generation projets
Entreprise de gouvernment peuvent etre tres imortante pour certainesresources
Succes dexploration tres bas compare aux depenses , cout extres deconstruction ( en plus )
Encore plein de potentiel dexploration sure la planete , pres de la surface ,depend des payes Chine , un des potentiel miniers non explore a ce jour etpourtant important producteur minier ( Au, Cu, RE, Pb, Zn,,etcc)
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Conclusions Generales
Prix de metaux ne devraient pas atteidre des extremescomme en 2007 ; Non sustainable ( Capital , Main dOeuvre,materiaux, services ,etc)
Plusieurs depots resteront non-economiques sur la base des
prix des metaux , inutiles de faire faisability , inneficace !!!Mais bon pour Stock market
Prix de metaux se maintiendront pour un bon bout de temps
Quantites de compagnies Junior tres elevees (2500) , trop ,Nombre de compagnies minieres peu en comparaison ( 2000).
RISQUES EXPLORATION MINIERE
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RISQUES EXPLORATION MINIERE
1975 2013
Internal
Technical
Geologie
Geochimie
Metallogenie
Structure
Geophysique
Resources Reserves
Extraction
Financial Financement
Environmental
External
Financier
Taux de change
Taxes et redevances
Marches financiers
Taux dinterets
Cout de main douvres
Couts services, etc Speculation
Politiques
Guerre
Instabilite
Revolte
Comunautes
Rejet
Confusion