John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. & Chief Economist, IEEP
12/5/20151 Coachella Valley 2010 Now What? John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc.
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Transcript of 12/5/20151 Coachella Valley 2010 Now What? John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc.
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04/18/23 1
Coachella Valley 2010Now What?
John Husing, Ph.D.
Economics & Politics, Inc.
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After Losing 8.36 Million Jobs …U.S. Job Creation Is Crawling Back
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Consumers Confidence Decaying Again!!
100.0 = Normal
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04/18/23 4
So. CA Job Change, 1991-2010e
-488,700-886,849-10.0%
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04/18/23 5
Inland Empire Job Change, 1984-2010e
+20,600
-168,577-13.1%
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04/18/23 6
Coachella Valley, Job Changes
1,879
14,121-10.1%
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04/18/23 7
Worst National Unemployment Rates
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04/18/23 8
“”not U or V
Shape of Recovery?
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04/18/23 9
What About the Future?
… Look At The Economic Base
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Gold Mine Theory
Primary Tier
Secondary Tier
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Economic Base
04/18/23 11
•Construction•Hotels & Conventions•Tourism•Tourist Shoppers•Agriculture•Clean Tech•Creative Arts•Distribution•Retirees•Health Care•Manufacturing
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04/18/23 12
Existing Homes Sales Headed For A Record in 2010 … Thanks To Short Sales/ Foreclosures
7.3%
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New Homes Sales Headed For A Record in 2010 … Thanks To Short Sales/ Foreclosures
04/18/23 13
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04/18/23 14
Existing Home Price ReboundTo 2003 Level
30.5%
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04/18/23 15
New Home Price Back To 2000-2002Level … Just Above Existing Homes
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04/18/23 16
Coachella Valley Housing Permits At Modern Low … Can’t Build At These Prices
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04/18/23 17
42,60742,607 Traded 2004-7 of 97,471 Total (43.7%43.7%)
31,99531,995 Drained Equity
74,562 74,562 Problem Homes of 97,471 Total (76.5%76.5%)
46.6% 46.6% County Average Notices of DefaultCounty Average Notices of Default
34,746 34,746 Notices of Default Filed (estimate)Notices of Default Filed (estimate)
39,816 Where Are They?39,816 Where Are They?
Supply: Upside Down Homes
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Somebody Has To Take A Major Hit!
Homeowners Lose Their Homes
Lenders Lose Part of Their Investments
Mortgage Backed Security Owners Lose Part of Their Investments
Taxpayers Subsidize One of the Above
Until This Happens … We Don’t Have A Recovery!
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04/18/23 19
Isn’t There Any Good News?
Yes!
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04/18/23 20
Supply & Demand
Demand From Lower Prices
Supply From Foreclosures vs.
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Price Stability?
Riverside Co. San Bernardino Co.
May $180,000 $137,000
June $185,000 2.80% $140,000 2.20%
July $185,000 2.80% $140,000 2.20%
August $190,000 5.60% $145,000 5.80%
Sept. $183,000 1.70% $150,000 9.50%
Oct. $190,000 5.60% $150,000 9.50%
Nov. $200,000 11.10% $160,000 16.80%
Dec. $196,000 8.90% $154,000 12.40%
Jan-10 $195,000 8.30% $150,000 9.50%
Feb. $190,000 5.60% $144,000 5.10%
Mar. $198,000 10.00% $152,000 10.90%
Apr. $195,000 8.30% $150,000 9.50%
May $210,000 16.70% $160,000 16.80%
June $210,000 16.70% $160,000 16.80%
July $200,000 11.10% $155,000 13.10%
August $200,000 11.10% $158,000 15.30%
Sept. $200,000 11.10% $160,000 16.80%
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Assessed Valuation
… Next Move Is UPUP!
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04/18/23 23
Soaring CV Housing AffordabilitySets A Record & Drives DemandDemand
62%
10%
53%55%
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Competitive Housing Prices
04/18/23 24
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Done Const Total
Palm Springs-Cath. Cty, DHSprgs. 17 0 17
Rancho Mirage 8 7 15
Palm Desert 6 21 27
Indian Wells-La Quinta 75 33 108
Indio-Coachella 17 31 48
123 92 215
04/18/23
Limited New Home Supply, 2nd -2010
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Economic Base
04/18/23 26
•Construction D-•Hotels & Conventions•Tourism•Tourist Shoppers•Agriculture•Clean Tech•Creative Arts•Distribution•Retirees•Health Care•Manufacturing
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Hotel Rates, A Weak Pulse
04/18/23 27
Corporate Meetings & Conventions Still Missing
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Airport Volume Increasing
04/18/23 28
Wishing For More Flights Like Phoenix-Scottsdale
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Car Rental Activity On & Near Airport
04/18/23 29
Tourists … Not Business Travelers?
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04/18/23 30
Transit Occupancy Tax: Palm Springs
12.7%
-1.1% -0.4%
-11.9%
4.8%
21.6%13,024,61114,677,511 14,521,402 14,466,704
12,751,47813,367,685
FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 July/Aug.
Note: FY 2011 Based On July-August 2009-2010Source: City of Palm Springs
Transit Occupancy TaxPalm Springs, FY 2005 to FY 2011 ytd
Cold Weather In So. California Helped!
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Increased Tourist Options:Possible Thermal Motor Sports Park
04/18/23 31
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Retail Sales … Finally Some Life
04/18/23 32
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04/18/23 33
Retail Sales By City
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Economic Base
04/18/23 34
•Construction D-•Hotels & Conventions D-•Tourism C+•Tourist Shoppers C-•Agriculture•Clean Tech•Creative Arts•Distribution•Retirees•Health Care•Manufacturing
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High Value Crops
04/18/23 35
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Agricultural Production
04/18/23 36
When Construction Recovers … Will Need The “AgJobs” Temporary Visa Program
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Economic Base
04/18/23 37
•Construction D-•Hotels & Conventions D-•Tourism C+•Tourist Shoppers C-•Agriculture B•Clean Tech•Creative Arts•Distribution•Health Care•Retirees•Manufacturing
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Clean Energy Initiatives
04/18/23 38
DemandProperty Assessed Clean Energy
Financing (PACE)Palm Desert Municipal Program
AB 811Net Metering
DevelopmentSkill Training To Work In the
IndustryElectric Vehicle Production
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Economic Base
04/18/23 39
•Construction D-•Hotels & Conventions D•Tourism C+•Tourist Shoppers C-•Agriculture B•Clean Tech C+•Creative Arts•Distribution•Health Care•Retirees•Manufacturing
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Creative Arts
04/18/23 40
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Major Films & Important CommercialsAre Already Shot in the Coachella Valley
04/18/23 41
Value of Filming Activity Coachella Valley
Coachella Valley Riverside Co. Share
2006 $11,892,591 $24,225,500 49.1%
2007 $10,174,750 $15,336,750 66.3%
2008 $11,705,000 $13,551,000 86.4%
2009 $4,732,000 $9,639,200 49.1%
2006-2006 $38,504,341 $62,752,450 61.4%Assumes Coachella Valley equal to lowest share of 2007-2009Source: Inland Empire Film Commission
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Opportunities Exist:
04/18/23 42
• Coachella Valley Has Always Been A Hollywood Playground
• Films & Commercials Are Already Shot In the Valley
• Major Venues Already Require Skilled Technicians
• Major Entertainment & Film Related Events Already Take Place
• Relationships With Key Arts & Entertainment Leaders Already Exist
Its Time To Take The Next Step & Seriously Become A Center For the Creative Arts
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Economic Base
04/18/23 43
•Construction D-•Hotels & Conventions D•Tourism C+•Tourist Shoppers C-•Agriculture B•Clean Tech C+•Creative Arts B-•Distribution•Health Care•Retirees•Manufacturing
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Logistics Links
04/18/23 44
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Key Transportation Links
04/18/23 45
To East
To Mexico
To East & Mexico
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Distribution
04/18/23 46
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Economic Base
04/18/23 47
•Construction D-•Hotels & Conventions D•Tourism C+•Tourist Shoppers C-•Agriculture B•Clean Tech C+•Creative Arts B-•Distribution C+•Health Care•Retirees•Manufacturing
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Facilities & Medical Staff
04/18/23 48
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Health Care Employment
04/18/23 49
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Age Distribution
04/18/23 50
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Economic Base
04/18/23 51
•Construction D-•Hotels & Conventions D•Tourism C+•Tourist Shoppers C-•Agriculture B•Clean Tech C+•Creative Arts B-•Distribution C+•Health Care A-•Retirees•Manufacturing
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Is the Past … the Future?
04/18/23 52
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Active Baby Boomer Retirees
04/18/23 53
Now This
No Longer Just This
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Economic Base
04/18/23 54
•Construction D-•Hotels & Conventions D•Tourism C+•Tourist Shoppers C-•Agriculture B•Clean Tech C+•Creative Arts B-•Distribution C+•Health Care A-•Retirees A•Manufacturing
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Manufacturing JobsBack Below 1997 Level
04/18/23 55
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Setting Conditions For The Future
04/18/23 56
•Construction D-•Hotels & Conventions D•Tourism C+•Tourist Shoppers C-•Agriculture B•Clean Tech C+•Creative Arts B-•Distribution C+•Health Care A-•Retirees A•Manufacturing D-
Over All Grade
C-
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Other Key Current Facts …
04/18/23 57
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04/18/23 58
Growth Has Slowed
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04/18/23 59
Academic Performance
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04/18/23 60
Adult Educational Level
Economic Target: Educational Performance
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04/18/23 61
What Jobs Grew?
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04/18/23 62
Largest Employers
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04/18/23 63
Payroll Released Into Valley
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Crime Per 1,000 Residents
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2010, 2011
When Will “Normal” Start To Return?
x2012
If Mortgages Fixed!
x
x2014-2015
Not
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