1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
-
Upload
barb-jacobs -
Category
Documents
-
view
215 -
download
0
Transcript of 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
1/52
Cycle or Trend?
A man should look for what is, and not for what he thinks should be... - Albert Einstein
Senate Environment and Energy CommitteeJanuary 22, 2013
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
2/52
Serial entrepreneur
9 Minnesota companies
Signal Amidst the Noise
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
3/52
Serial entrepreneur
9 Minnesota companies
If I dont respond to data &
trends Im road-kill
Applied this same disciplineto weather and climate trends.
Signal Amidst the Noise
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
4/52
Skeptical about climate trends in 80s
Responding to Data
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
5/52
Skeptical about climate trends in 80s
90s: saw fingerprints of climate change in Minnesotas day to day weather
Responding to Data
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
6/52
Skeptical about climate trends in 80s
90s: saw fingerprints of climate change inMinnesotas day to day weather
Normal Weather had shifted
Frequency/Intensity of Weather Extremes
Responding to Data
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
7/52
An Accumulation of Coincidences
No Overnight Epiphany
Tracking weather patterns
Are we imagining more extremes?
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
8/52
An Accumulation of Coincidences
No Overnight Epiphany
Tracking weather patterns
Are we imagining more extremes?
Why doubt climate scientists?
What motive to they have to mislead?
Skeptical of conspiracy theories
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
9/52
2012 : Warmest Year On Record
Climate Central - NCDC
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
10/52
2012: Off the Charts
3.2 F. warmer than 20 th century average
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
11/52
36 Years of Global Temps.Above 20 th Century Avg.
NASA GISS 2012 anomalies above
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
12/52
9 Warmest YearsObserved Since 2000
132 year NASA GISS record
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
13/52
2000-2010
Warmest decade in 1,000 years
an accumulation of coincidences
Art Warner Little Falls MN
Art Warner Little Falls MN
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
14/52
2012 : Record Arctic Sea Ice Loss
September 13, 2012
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
15/52
Melting Happening Faster ThanComputer Models Predicted
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
16/52
Polar Amplification
Weather systems moving slower, spike in extreme weather events
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
17/52
Trends : More Volatility/Extremes
Climate Extreme Index : national extremes in moisture
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
18/52
Weather On Steroids
Barry Bonds: you cant prove any one of his 762 home runs was caused by steroids
Steroids influenced base state
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
19/52
Weather On Steroids
No single storm can be blamed on climate change
But are we loading the dice?
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
20/52
Weather On Steroids
Natural Disasters have increased 3-4Xsince 1980
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
21/52
133 Billion $$ Disasters since 1980
46 between 1980 and 1995
86 between 1996 and 2011
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
22/52
Sandy: Freak Hybrid Storm
5-7 sea level rise Ocean Temps : more typical of Jacksonville, Florida in October
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
23/52
Weather Whiplash
2011 2012
7 month flood on Worst drought since 1956
Missouri River
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
24/52
Warmer Atmosphere
Warmer air holdsmore water
4-5% increase inwater vapor over
oceans
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
25/52
1-Day Precipitation Trends
Warmer air holds
Every 1 C. warming = 20% more rainfall
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
26/52
3+ Downpours Across Upper Midwest Have Doubled Since 1964
Duluth, June 19-20, 2012
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
27/52
of Peer-Reviewed, PublishedClimate Scientists see a link
between Warming andGreenhouse Gas Emissions
97%
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
28/52
"All truth goes through three
stages. First it is ridiculed.
Then it is violently opposed.
Finally it is accepted as self-
evident.
- Schoepenhouer
NOAA, NASA,
National Academy of Science
Insurance Industry
U.S. Military
Symptom of
Growth &Progress
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
29/52
Confuse Divide - Delay
Organized effort to delaymeaningful action
Reminiscent of smokingdebate in 70s
Denial from specialinterests, even after
Surgeon Generals report
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
30/52
No Warming Since 98?
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
31/52
.recent trip to the Yukon aNative American Elder
presented me with a 4,000year old tomahawk that wasrecently discoveredmelting
snow revealed this ancient
artifactchances of this beinga coincidenceslim to nil
Senator McCain
2007
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
32/52
We will see cold & snow
Cant look out the window andmake long-term, global
assumptions
Tracking subtle, yet critically
important long-term (global)trends
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
33/52
Slow Motion Transformation
Make a note of newspecies of birds,
insects, plants andflowers that creep intoyour yard in the
coming years anddecades
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
34/52
USDA Plant Hardiness
MSP Metro now in Climate Zone 5
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
35/52
Fast-Forward Climate
Magnolia trees in full bloom on March 27, 2012
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
36/52
Fast-Forward Climate
Magnolia trees in full bloom on March 27, 2012Business as Usual Scenario for 2090 in Minnesota
- Lee Frelich, U of MN Center for Hardwood Ecology
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
37/52
Minnesotas Shrinking Winters
30 Year Trend
Shorter winters
Fewer subzero nights
More midwinter rain/ice
Inconsistent and sporadicsnowfall across the state
Thumbprints of warming
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
38/52
Heating Degree Days
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
39/52
Winter Lows Trending Milder
Coldest Winter Lows @ MSP since 1963
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
40/52
MN Min Temp. Trends
Minnesota Climate Office
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
41/52
Average Ice Out Date
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
42/52
Lake Superior Water Temps.
3.3F. warming during summer between 1979 and 2006
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
43/52
Minnesotas Extended Outlook
Increasingly Hot & Dry with
More Extreme Rainfall Events
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
44/52
Minnesotas Quality of Life
Heavier rain, but falling more infrequently
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
45/52
Minnesotas Quality of Life
Heavier rain, but falling more infrequently
Warming trend = increased evaporation
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
46/52
Climate Assessment Report
More frequent and intense Midwest heat waves
Degraded air and water quality
More intense rainstorms and floods
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
47/52
Climate Assessment Report
More frequent and intense Midwest heat waves
Degraded air and water quality
More intense rainstorms and floods
More stress on Great Lakes
Increasing public health risks
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
48/52
Environmental Conservatism
Im proud of having been one of the first torecognize that States and the Federal Governmenthave a duty to protect our natural resources from
the damaging effects of pollution that canaccompany industrial development."
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
49/52
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
50/52
Long Range Outlook:
Mitigating Climate Change Will Require a Level of Sustained Innovation and American Reinvention that
will propel the USA Into a New Competitive Paradigm
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
51/52
We Are Accountable
Man has been appointed as a steward for the management of Gods property,and ultimately he will give account for his stewardship
Luke 16:2
-
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas
52/52
We do not inherit the earth from
our ancestors,We borrow it from our children.
- Native American Proverb