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FUTURE CHRISTCHURCH : SOLUTIONS.

Biran He

HOUSING

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CONTENTS

Thesis Statement

1.0 Evolution of Cities

1.1 Global Trend

1.2 Where to now?

1.3 Current Global Trends of Housing

1.4 The Demographia Housing Affordability Survey

1.5 The Rise of Suburbia

1.6 National Trends

2.0 The Other Cities Case Studies

2.1 Lessons from the United States_ Boulder, Colorado

2.2 Lessons from Australia _ Perth, Western Austalia

2.3 Lessons from London_ Urban Infill

3.0 Urban Planning Research

3.1 The Urban Sprawl Argument

3.2 The Intensification Argument

3.3 Our Future Plans

3.3.1 The Greater Christchurch Urban Development Strategy

3.3.2 The Christchurch Central City Plan

3.3.3 The Issue with Affordability

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4.0 CHRISTCHURCH CITY - MARKET RESEARCH

4.1 Age & Sex

4.2 Ethnicity

4.3 Impact of Earthquake on Households

4.4 Household Changes

4.5 Income

4.6 Median House Sale Prices

4.7 Current Housing Supply

4.8 Real Estate Market4.9 Automobile Dependency

4.10 Current Housing Demand

4.11 Temporary Housing

5.0 Summary of findings

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THESIS STATEMENT

Lie in the Canterbury regionchanged orever when a 7.1 magnitudeearthquake struck west o Christchurchon 4 September 2010 ollowed by a4.9 magnitude atershock on BoxingDay. Both earthquakes caused damageto older commercial buildings in thecentral city and widespread damage toresidential suburbs across the city. Noone could have predicted however thatworst was yet to come. On 22 February2011, a 6.3 magnitude earthquake

erupted on what has become knownas the Port Hills ault line, causingsubstantial damage to major historicsites, widespread land displacementcausing whole suburbs to be deemedunstable and destruction o commercialbuildings in the CBD which led to theloss o 181 lives.

Such widespread destruction andthe emotional distress has let manyCantebrians wondering about theuture o Christchurch and how theywill be able rebuild a better Cityamongst all the uncertainty. Theunexpected nature o the events meantthat no planning had been in place todeal with the issues that ollowed andalso that all urban plans in place priorto the events had to be rethought.Going orward Christchurch City hasimplemented the Christchurch Central

City Recovery plan in conjunction withCentral government to address rebuildo housing and commercial centres. Thead-hoc nature o this plan has meantthat not all issues can be properlyaddressed in particular housing.

More than 100,000 houses have beendamaged, 10,000 are un-saveable. Forsome amilies their homes have had tobe demolished and the land underneathdeclared unstable or building. Many

homeowners have aced diculty indealing with insurance companiesand even council inspectors. For manyhomeowners the stresses have been toomuch and they have moved locationsentirely. Many amilies have losteverything and some ace extravagantre-construction costs. The government

intends to help each eected amily byproviding monetary support howeverwith current issues o unaordable andunavailable housing this solution allsshort.

In 2012, all o New Zealands housingstock is deemed severely unaordableby the 8th annual Demographia Survey.This is coupled with the huge housingshortage ater the 2010/11 earthquakesin Christchurch which creates what hasbeen dubbed a housing crisis. Theuture o Christchurch housing will

need to address these issues currentlybut also keep them under controlor uture generations. The housingsolution should promote sustainablegrowth o the city but also enhance thequality o lie or the citys inhabitants.The aim o my research is to be ableto design and present appropriatehousing solutions that will be the best tin bringing together housing demand,housing supply and urban planning

to promote sustainable growth oChristchurch City. I will conduct myresearch using a unnel approach.Firstly, I will look at Housing on aglobal scale to identiy growth theories,patterns and issues that have resultedrom urban planning decisions in muchlarger cities. I will then consider how

these theories, patterns and issues areapplied in the Christchurch contextand current urban planning proposalsin place to act on them.

Secondly, ocusing on Christchurch,I will perorm analysis o theHousing market to understanddemand characteristics o the uturehomeowners and characteristics ocurrent housing stock. From the marketanalysis I would hope to understandwhat home buyers want in a home, howmuch it should be, where it should be

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and some idea o what it should looklike. Thirdly, I will bring together myull understanding o the market, urbanplanning theories and current issues toprovide a best t Future Christchurchhousing solution.

Below is a summary o the preliminaryThesis Structure:

EVOLUTION OF THE CITY History o Cities - How do cities

grow Current Global Trends and Issues Local Trends and issues Conclusions

URBAN PLANNING RESEARCH

Precedent Studies (AUS, US, UK)-

How can Christchurch utiliseelements

Current Plans For ChristchurchCity

MARKET RESEARCH Demand- Demographics, Growth,

Characteristics Supply- Housing stock and uture

growth plans Summary o ndings

URBAN STRATEGY

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1.0 THE EVOLUTION OF CITIES

Rapid Urbanization

Book Cover of The Endless City

Source: LeGates & Stout, 2011

Intersection o High, Manchester and Licheld Streets, Christchurch, 8 May 1923Source: Photographic Archive, Alexander Turnbull Library, National Library o New Zealand

Urbanization is the increase in theshare o a societys population that livesin cities.

The rapid recent and continuing growthin the number and size of cities andurbanizationthe shift of populationrom rural areas and small towns tourban areasare striking phenomena inhuman history. In 1800 only about 6% othe world population o approximately900 million peopleabout 54 million

peoplelived in urban areas and onlyone city (London) had more than onemillion inhabitants. Today nearly halthe world population of 6.5 billionabout 3.25 billion peoplelive inurban areas. Nearly 1.3 billion peoplelive in 524 urban agglomerationswith populations of 750,000 or more.

(LeGates R. , 2006)

The urban transition: an S-shapedgrowth curve showing the urbanizationprocess over time.

Urbanization often follows a pattern thathistorical urban demographer KingsleyDavis describes as an attenuatedS curve with a long let tail as thepopulation in a region slowly becomesmore urban, a steep middle portion othe S as the region urbanizes rapidly,and then a nearly fat upper part o the

S curve once the region is essentiallyfully urban. (LeGates & Stout, 2011)

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1.1 Global Trend

(projected)

The S Curve of Urbanisation

1100

0

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1200 1300 15001400 1600 1700 1800 20001900 2100 2200

percentage

urban

year

industrialrevolution

WWII ended, 1945

A Chatholic Town in 1440 (Augustus Pugin)

A modern downtown of the 1920s

Market Street, San FranciscoIndustrial Town in 1840 (Augustus Pugin)

Suburban development in

Colorado Springs, USA. 2008

The Garden City, 1898

(Ebenezer Howard)

introduction of the

steam engine

Mass production of

the motor-car, 1920s

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Grant Avenue rom Market Street, San Francisco, Caliornia Postcard. ca. 1915-1925, GrantAvenue rom Market Street, San Francisco, Caliornia PostcardSource: Universal Images Group / SuperStock

Colombo Street, Christchurch, looking south towards the Cathedral. ca. 1930Source: Christchurch City Libraries

The Decay of Taste

During the rst part o the nineteenthcentury, new industrial cities basedon steam powered machinery sprangup in Europe. Augustus Pugin, acontemporary observer, contrasts thesame city beore and ater the industrialrevolution. The rst plate titled ACatholic Town in 1440 shows a citywhere church spires are the dominantarchitectural element, the landsurrounding the medieval city walls islargely empty, and the air and water are

clean. (See time line on previous page.)

The second plate titled The SameTown in 1840, shows a layer o smog,with actory smokestacks that havereplaced the steeples. Developmenthas sprawled to the once-empty land,and the oreground is dominated by

a massive prison. Pugin subtitled hiswork: A Parallel between the NobleEdices of the Middle Ages and theCorresponding Buildings o the PresentDay Showing the Present Decay oTaste. (LeGates & Stout, 2011)

A modern downtown of the 1920s. (FIG)One o the prevailing urban eaturesin the mid-nineteenth century wasthe appearance o large streets wherethe upper classes could travel withoutcoming into contact with the squalidliving conditions o the residential

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slums that comprised the greater parto the city. This postcard shows thebustling Market Street in San Franciscoin about 1920 is typical o the newdowntown o the modernist period. Not

that the trams, buses, automobiles, andpedestrians all share the public space.

The picture o Colombo Street inChristchurch around the same erashows some remarkable similarities.There where large streets where peoplewould travel along with the trams and

automobiles. Pedestrians and cyclistsshare the same public space. Also notethe large amount o cyclists on the roadcompared to cars. Since then, the urbanorm has evolved, to become moresprawled out, paved with highways andclogged up with automobiles. Almostlike Augustus Pugins disappointmentat the 1840s industrial town, our citieshave become a decay o taste again.

Levittown, New York, 1947.

While suburbs have a long and varied history, it was during theperiod ater World War II that many o the suburbs surroundingUS cities arose. Levittown, New York, provided entirely newcommunities o aordable, cute, single-amily houses onindividual lots to returning soldiers and irst-time home buyers.

(Will this be what uture Christchurchs aordable housing lookslike? )

Aerial view o Levittown, New York, 1947Source: http://instanthouse.blogspot.co.nz/2011/08/levittown-ny.html

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1.2 Where to now?

According to (Newman & Kenworthy,1989), increasing the intensity of urbanactivity within the present urban arearather than continuing to push intogreen-eld rural areas has come to becalled reurbanization.

It ollows the pattern o urban trendsoutlined in the diagram to the right. Inthe reurbanization process, populationand jobs once again begin to grow ininner areas and outer areas concentrate

development and begin to take onmore o the intensity and mixedcharacter o the old inner areas.

Reurbanization is discussed mainlyin Europe and is only minimallyconsidered or its uel savings; theprincipal motivations usually are its

economic and social benets-a vitaland attractive central and inner cityand better utilization of the existingurban inrastructure. In addition,reurbanization is considered to helpdiminish vehicle emissions thatcontribute to acid rain and smog.(Newman & Kenworthy, 1989)

Despite the suburbanization processesof the postwar period, most Europeancities have not de-concentrated asrapidly as have cities in the UnitedStates (or the cities in New Zealand).

Likewise, European cities do notace the same inner and central cityproblems on housing and transport.Nevertheless, there is an ongoing eortto reurbanize.

The Greater Christchurch UrbanDevelopment plan (GCUDS,2007)has already put measures in place toreurbanize the city. Their approach isto contain urther growth o the city,discouraging developments on theurban ringe, and promote consolidation

within the existing urban areas.

Re_urbanisation

Source: (Newman & Kenworthy, 1989)

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Accelerating pace of change

The pace o change has been rapid,city regions o 1 million people or moremultiplied in the twentieth century.Today they accommodate a total o 1

billion people, refecting their role ascenters o global fows o people, capital,culture and inormation. While therewere only a hand ull o city regionso this scale up to the mid-twentiethcentury, the number soared to 450 by2005. (Burdett & Sudjic, 2008)

Accelerating pace o change, 1950 - 2005Colors represent diferent continents, size o dot represents populations o 1 million or more

Source: (Burdett & Sudjic, 2008)

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1.3 Current Global Trends of Housing

An international study by the LondonSchool of Economics, (Scanlon &Whitehead, 2004) revealed some veryinteresting acts on housing trends andtenure.

> In all countries studied, exceptGermany, owner-occupation is thelargest single tenure category.

> Overall, percentages o owner-occupation range from Germany (41%)

to Hungary (92%). The mean is 67% onlya little below the UK gure of 70%.

> In almost every country, theproportion o owner-occupiers is higheramongst Mid-Life than Young Entranthouseholds.

> The proportions o youngerhouseholds entering owner-occupationare, however, stable or alling, oten byquiet signicant amounts.

> The main reason given or youngerhouseholds not entering owner-occupation is aordability. (UKhad increased the availability o

more appropriate private rentedaccommodation as a retort.)

> Given that interest rates have allen inall countries, and mortgage conditionshave eased, aordability problems aremainly the result o increased houseprices.

> In our o nine countries thepercentage o owner-occupiers amongmiddle-aged households with childrenhas allen over the last decade.

>Across countries, social renting is

always the cheapest tenure optionfor either household type. For YoungEntrant households, private rentingis cheaper than owner-occupation,but or Mid-Lie households it is moreexpensive. This is the same pattern aswas observed ten years ago.

(Scanlon & Whitehead, 2004)

The Young Entrant household was

defned as a two-adult household without

children, with the main respondent aged

around 25 years, and an average income

or the age group.

The Mid-Lie household was defned as

a two-adult household with two children,with the main respondent aged around

45 years, and an average income or

that age group.

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Make Inographics...

Compare with CHCH?

Source: Cox & Pavletich, 2012

Owner-occupation dominates tenure choice and continues to grow internationallySource: Scanlon & Whitehead, 2004

Average age o rst-time home buyer is high or most countries.Source: Scanlon & Whitehead, 2004

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To allow this to occur, new starterhousing o an acceptable quality to thepurchasers, with associated commercial

and industrial development, must beallowed to be provided on the urbanfringes at 2.5 times the gross annualmedian household income o that urbanmarket.

The critically important DevelopmentRatios or this new ringe starter

housing should be 17 23% servicedlot/section cost the balance the actualhousing construction.Pavletich urther notes that the urbanringe "is the only supply vent or

infation vent o an urban market." Thisreality is demonstrated by the houseprice experience that has occurredwhere planning authorities have placed

a strangle-hold on the supply o land onthe urban ringe.

In the 8th Annual DemographiaInternational Housing AordabilitySurvey, 325 metropolitan marketsin Australia, Canada, Hong Kong,Ireland, New Zealand, the United

Kingdom and the United States werecovered. According to the report,housing becomes unaordable whenthe median house price (MHP) isthree times higher than "gross annualmedian household income"(GAMHI).Housing in New Zealand was deemedseverely unaordable, with a Median

Multiple of 5.4, nearly three-quartersabove the historic aordability norm o3.0. Housing had been aordable in theearly 1990s, with a Median Multiple o3.0 or less. (Cox & Pavletich, 2012)

According to Demographia, the root ofthe problem is planners - specically theway their zoning rules and regulations

constrain the supply o land. Free upthe supply o land, especially at thecity ringes, says Demographia andhousing will become aordable again.

More suburban sprawl brings housingor all.

The causes o massively deterioratinghousing aordability are not a mystery.They inevitably result rom morerestrictive land use regulations adoptedby governments with insucientattention to economic undamentals.(Cox & Pavletich, 2012)

What may be surprising aboutDemographia's analysis is not that itrefects a property developer's ultimateantasy, but that the New ZealandGovernment is buying its message.(Productivity Commission Report)"National understands there are beproperty cycles, but the recent cyclehas been so extreme as to suggest there

are undamental problems with howthe market is operating, notably aroundthe supply o land - Phil Heatley(Housing Minister)

1.4 The Demographia Housing Affordability Survey

For metropolitan areas to rate

as affordable and ensure that

housing bubbles are not triggered,

housing prices should not exceed

3.0 times gross annual household

income.

Defining Affordable Housing MarketsBased upon the international evidence,Demographia International HousingAordability Survey co-author Hugh

Pavletich, provides the ollowingdenition o an aordable housingmarket:

Auckland was the least affordable

market, with a Median Multiple of

6.4. Christchurch followed closely

behind with a median multiple of

6.3.

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A flawed survey?

However, the research doesn't proveanything about restrictive planning,according to a non-prot social changeagency, Shelter New South Wales. A

research was commissioned to provethis in October 2008. It ound the overarching methodology fawed, pointingout that it includes all house pricesacross an entire city - multimillion-dollar properties alongside lower costhomes.

That can easily give a skewedimpression. "A city with a high medianmultiple might have large numbers oaordable properties that operate asseparate housing markets in the city,"says the research. Demographia onlyincludes home purchases, excludingdwellings in the public and private

rental sector, which are importantsources o aordable housing supply.(Phibbs & Gurran, 2008)

Another feature not taken into accountis the increase in the average size ofnew houses in New Zealand - romabout 130 square metres in 1990 to justunder 200 square metres today. Phibbs

and Gurran note that the boom in houseprices in New Zealand has occurredin places like Timaru, which have ewproblems with land availability. "It's not

really obvious that we have constraintsin nding sites to build on."

Shelter NSW's research argues housing

aordability is a complex mix o supplyand demand variables including incomelevels, employment trends, access to(and the cost of) nance, demographicshits, and housing preerences. "TheDemographia surveys reduce thisvery complex issue to a simple causalrelationship between house prices and

assumed planning constraints on landsupply," says the research. (Phibbs &Gurran, 2008)

A closer look at Demographia's listo 87 "aordable" housing markets inNorth America gives new meaning tothe word. The top 20 most aordable

markets are in economically distressedregions. According to Keith Hall, theChie executive o the New ZealandPlanning Institute, these are mostlythe rust belt cities of the AmericanMidwest. These areas are chronicallyplagued by high unemploymentamong predominantly blue collar autoindustry workers. A close reading of the

Demographia data shows "aordablehousing" is ound largely in fat terrainwith extreme climates, high levels ocrime, dying economies, ew natural

amenities, and limited prospects oracademic and proessional achievementfor the next generation. (Barton, 2009)

Looking at Demographia's 64 "severelyunaordable" housing markets in NorthAmerica, Hall notes most are coastalcities and many are near mountains."Never mind the articial constraintsthat politicians place on these citieswith their growth management andzoning regulations, these cities face real

limitations on growth in constrainedgeographies.

Despite such hurdles ahead,Demographia maintains reeing-upland on the ringe o metropolitanurban limits will save the day. Pull upthe boundary ence and let the city

limits push out. In its vision o suburbanparadise, Demographia does not dwellon the downside - that a more sprawled-out Auckland for example would resultin increased inrastructure, transportand social costs.

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Suburbia : Urban Sprawl

Further readings/research:

The Drive-in Culture of Comtemporary America (Kenneth Jackson)

The Causes of Sprawl (Robert Bruegmann)

Robert Bruegmann (Causes of Sprawl) suggests that building ever-outward ismerely a logical, indeed natural response to increased population pressures andthe desire o the middle class to avoid the disagreeable aspects o inner-city lie.

A look at how urban sprawl came to be,and why it came to be.

The New Zealand equivalent o the

American Dream, and show how that isnot the right way to develop housing.

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In the book Bourgeois Utopias, RobertFishman discovered that the suburbanideal was yet another orm o utopia,the utopia o the middle class. (RobertFishman is a proessor o history at theUniversity of Michigan.)

In the medieval period and up through

the eighteenth century, suburbs wereclusters o houses inhabited by poorand/or disreputable people on theoutskirts o towns. When suburbs wererst established or the upper andmiddles classes a phenomenon thathas thrived more in North Americathan in Europe, where working classsuburbs and banlieus (outskirts o acity) often predominate the ideal wasto create a perect synthesis o urbansophistication and rural virtue. Herewas a conception as utopian as any

other visionary social reormer, butwith an important dierence. Fishmanexplains that where other modernutopias have been collectivist, suburbia

has built its vision o community onthe primacy o private property and theindividual family. (Fishman, 1987)

Fishman notes that all new urban ormsappear to be chaotic in their earlystages. Even the most organic city-scapes o the past evolved slowly ater

much chaos and trial and error. Forexample, it took planners like FredrickLaw Olmsted (Olmsteds RiversideSuburb) and Ebenezer Howard (GardenCity) to create orderly parks and gardensuburbs out o the nineteenth centurychaos.

Fishman argues that there is a unctionallogic to sprawl. Perhaps, he speculates,i sprawl is better understood and bettermanaged it might prove to be a positiverather than a negative development.Fishman looks to Frank Lloyd WrightsBroadacre City vision, as an example ohow inspired planners may yet devisean aesthetic to tame the suburbia.

1.5 The Rise of Suburbia

If the nineteenth century

could be called the Age of

Great Cities, post 1945

America would appear to be

the Age of Great Suburbs

-Robert Fishman, 1987

Wrights Broadacre City

Frank Lloyd Wrights Broadacre City,oten conused with a kind o universalsub-urbanization, it was the completeopposite o the suburbs he despised.

Broadacres was based on universalautomobile ownership combined witha network o superhighways whichremoved the need or population tocluster at a particular spot.

Indeed, any such clustering wasnecessarily inecient, a point

o congestion rather than ocommunication. The city wouldthus spread out to the country side atdensities that would allow each amilyto have its own armstead and even toengage in part-time agriculture.

However these armsteads would

not be isolated; their access to thesuperhighways would put them in reachof jobs and may specialized services, asany other nineteenth century urbanite.Travelling in their automobiles, eachcitizen would create his own city withinhundreds o square miles he couldreach in an hours drive. (LeGates &Stout, 2011)

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Sketches or Boadacre City project rom Frank L. Wright.Source: Kjell Olsen / Flickr.com

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1.6 National Trends

Early history suggest that NewZealand was developing a healthypublic transportation system, anddevelopments were built around that.

During the 1880s horse-drawn tramservices were set up in all our maincenters. Commuter suburbs developedalong the tram routes and propertyspeculators took advantage o thistrend by buying and subdividing moreland on the city fringes. (TeAra, 2011)

However, the industrial revolution hit,and the popularization of motor-carssaw rapid urbanization, which lead tosub-urbanization or sprawl. Everyonewanted to have a piece o this NewZealand Dream. (1/4 acre, a car and abungalow)

The development o suburbanisationhas been concurrent with thedevelopment o urbanisation in NewZealand. As New Zealand cities haveexpanded in population, they havealso expanded dramatically in size. Atrst suburbs developed around publictransport routes, then, with advent othe private motor car, urban sprawl

increased.

In 2002 the New Zealand OcialYearbook 2002 recorded Aotearoa/

New Zealand as one o the most highlyurbanised countries in the world, with85.7 percent of its population living inurban areas.

In 1881, urban New Zealanders werea minority, but by 2001 they hadbeen the substantial majority o NewZealanders or some time. This trend isnot unique to New Zealand, but ratherrefects an international trend towardsurbanisation. Worldwide, cities haveexpanded and swallowed up vast areas

o land and population. Main urbanareas have grown at the expense osmaller urban communities.

New Zealand has also ollowed the

international phenomenon o urbanexpansion. In 1901, approximatelyone-quarter o the urban population(10.1 percent o the total population,excluding Mori) lived in a borough

or town district with 25,000 or morepeople. In 2001, over 80 percent o theurban population (71 percent o thecensus usually resident populationcount) lived in a main urban area (anurban area with a population o 30,000or more). The Auckland urban area isnow the largest nationally, increasing by

approximately 3,000 percent between1886 and 2001.

(Stats NZ, 2012)

A Snapshot of Changing New Zealand

1996 2001 2006 2011

Population 3,732,000 3,880,500 4,184,600 4,405,200

Average Household

Size2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6

Couples Only 309,819 376,905 467,700 528,700

Couples with

Children379,218 407,793 480,700 480,100

Single-Person

Households256,569 307,635 362,800 405,900

Vehicles Registered 1,635,718 1,909,480 2,241,490 4,196,826

Data set rom Statistics New Zealand

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New Zealand

1100 1769

0

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1880 2010

percentage

urban

year

urbanisation of N.Z

immigration from Asia in 1990s

James Cook visits New Zealand

introduction of the

motor-car in 1920s

Govt, nance for newhome owners, 1950s

Billboard encouraging suburban dwellers, 1930s

Modern New Zealand Suburb, Auckland. 2009

Electric Tram in Mt Eden, Auckland. 1920s

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Lessons from History.

In 1881, New Zealand was rmly a ruralcountry, with just under 60 percent othe population living in a rural area. NewZealand sold itsel as a rural paradise

in the late nineteenth century, withsuch volumes as Pictorial New Zealandand the New Zealand Cyclopaedia.These books promoted New Zealandto the wider, though still largely British,world with images o lush countrysideand towering mountains. They also,however, included a celebration o

urban development by promoting theprogress o newly established townsand cities, with roads, horses, trams andtrains. Rural and urban New Zealandcoexisted.

By the early twentieth century,however, there was a sense o dismaythat the population was no longerpredominantly rural. Newspapersraised ears about urban corruption anddecay as the population lost their hardypioneering spirit and became sotenedby the experience o urban living. In1923, the prominent educationalist,Professor James Shelley, wrote thatchildren should not be educated in the

town . . . I do not think you realise howdestructive it is.[1] In response, sportssuch as rugby increased in popularityas a suitable medium to toughen young

Growth o Five Main Urban Areas -Census o Population and Dwellings, selected years 18862001

Source: Stats NZ

House Prices and Value o Housing StockSource: Reserve Bank o New Zealand, April 2012 / http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/keygraphs/Fig4.html

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men and inculcate them with suitablevalues. None o these ears slowedthe inexorable march towards anincreasingly urbanised and eventually

sophisticated nation but they infuencedthe orm o cities and shaped the valuesthat the nation espoused.

New Zealand cities became shapedaround the suburban rather thanpurely urban orms, copying the sprawlof cities in Australia and the United

States. Features of European cities suchas narrow streets, terrace housing, andhigh population density seemed aliento the New Zealand ethos, althoughpockets did develop in areas such asDunedins Dundas Street, where theybecame a curiosity rather than thenorm.

Ruralism infuenced education andhousing policies. The New ZealandPrime Minister, Peter Fraser, whenlooking at models or state housing inthe 1940s, was dismayed when shown amulti-block apartment in Lower Hutt,declaring I hope it will be the last.[2]The comprehensive development o

apartment building has been a airlyrecent phenomenon, developing as aresult o pressure on space and highland values in the main cities.

Between 1881 and 2001 the balanceo the population moved rom ruralto urban areas. During this period,the population o urban New Zealandincreased by over 1,500 percent,

compared with an increase in ruralareas o 83 percent.

(Stats NZ, 2012)

Number o People Living in Urban and Rural Areas 18862 001Source: Statistics New Zealand

Lessons from the United States

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Boulder : Limiting Growth

Lessons from the United States

Denver, Colorado. Population Change 2000-2010. U.S. CensusDataSource: http://www.datapointed.net/visualizations/maps/growth-rings/denver-colorado/

Boulder, Colorado in America hasdeveloped a national reputation orhaving dealt creatively with growthmanagement issues. The city has

developed a 27,000-acre greenbelt,a system or controlling the rate opopulation growth by limiting buildingpermits, and a dened urban growthboundary managed in cooperation withBoulder County. Boulder's approach tourban growth boundaries, called theservice area concept, oers important

lessons or controlling sprawl,preserving rural land uses outside thecity, and extending urban services in arational manner.

Boulder is a mid sized city pressedagainst the vertical fank o the Rockies,about 50 kilometres from Denver.Boulder is home to approximately96,000 people. Its strong economyis ounded on the university, ederallaboratories, regional and local retail,and a dynamic industrial sectorconcentrated in the high tech industryand business services. Nearly 40 yearsago, the city tried to control its utureon its own, setting itsel up as an ideal

mix of wild and urban. (Pollock, 1998)The plan was called the service areaconcept. In the decade of the 1950s,Boulder's population grew from 25,000to 37,000 and during the 1960s it grew

by a whopping 29,000 to reach 66,000.

Starting in 1959; Boulder drew a linein the mountains just above the city,above which no water or sewer servicescould be extended. It was dubbedthe Blue Line, and it was setup toprotect the oothills rom developmentwhich was considered imminent andextremely detrimental to the natural

beauty o Boulder. It insured that Citywater service could not be used tourther urban development up into thefoothills. (Egan, 1996)

Then, in 1967, Boulder started to take aportion o the sales tax and buy up openspace, mostly ranch land that was beingsold to commercial developers. It has

since purchased 25,000 acres. In 1976,Boulder went a step urther, setting alimit on residential growth, at 2 percenta year. (Egan, 1996)

Benefits:

The service area concept creates an

identiable urban/rural edge. Unlikemany cities that have either sprawledinto the countryside or acilitatedleaprog development, Boulder hascreated a real edge between urban andrural development.

It provides for the rational extensiono urban services. The denition oareas where services are to be provided(along with initial designations oland use) allows a direct link betweenland use planning and inrastructureplanning. Parks, recreation, police, re,transportation, water, sewer and foodcontrol service providers can developtheir master plans knowing where

services are to be extended, over whattime rame, and or what types o landuses.

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It helps preserve rural lands outsidethe city. Boulder's service area policyhas sent a clear signal to the landmarkets that land outside o Boulder's

service area is not likely to beurbanized in the near future. This haslessened land speculation or urbandevelopment purposes and acilitatedthe acquisition o open space.

It helps focus development within thecity. Through redevelopment o under

utilized areas and inll development,the city has been able to capitalizeon existing public investments ininrastructure.

It provides both exibility andcertainty to the planning process. Asthe community experiences changeover time, land can be added to ordeleted rom the service area, andproperty owners inside and outsidethe service area can act accordingly.(Pollock, 1998)

Pitfalls:

Boulder's region encompasses the

whole county. Thereore, the city'ssurging job growth and limitationson residential growth have had asignicant impact on housing demandin adjoining communities. The most

striking example is the nearby towno Superior. In 1990 the population oSuperior was 255; in 1996 it was 3,377.It has practically no jobs and no sales

tax base. This regional imbalancebetween jobs and housing has createdtremendous problems with traccongestion, lack o aordable housingand school acility needs.

Getting a hold on sprawl is only halfthe equation. What happens within

the urban service area is the other. InBoulder's initial planning eorts; therewas a clear expression o a preerenceor inll and redevelopment over sprawl.Since there is no requirement that acertain amount o land be containedwithin its service area (such as the20-year required land supply withinOregon's urban growth boundaries),Boulder does not have to make atrade-o between expansion versusinll and redevelopment. However, itis increasingly dicult to convincespecic neighborhoods and thecommunity as a whole that additionaldensity is in their best interests. Thecommunity can choose to not expand

the service area, maintain currentdensities and simply not grow. (Pollock,1998)

Is that good or bad?

On the good side, it has allowedBoulder to determine its own ideal city

size, with consideration of how muchcongestion is tolerable, what sizedcity leads to a high quality o lie, andwhat is sustainable over time. On thebad size, it holds Boulder back fromcapturing some o the benets thatadditional development could bring,such as more aordable housing and

less dependence on the automobile bybuilding mixed use, transit-orientedneighborhood centers.

Lessons from Australia.

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Lessons from Australia.

Perth : Beating Urban Sprawl

The retention o bushland in Perth can be attributed to theCorridor Plan o the 1970sSource: Atkinson, 2009

Urban Sprawl : Perth needs more apartments.Source: Perth Now, 2010

Perths population is the astest growingof all the cities in Australia, and thisincrease has placed strains upon boththe built and the natural environment.In recent years planning authorities (ateach level of government) have beenunder pressure rom the communityand industry to improve services and

amenity, and to plan or the presentand uture needs o society, whilemaintaining the quality o the naturalenvironment. Finding a balancebetween conserving the naturalenvironment while increasing the sizeo the built environment (to cater orincreasing population demands) hasled to an array o sustainability driven

policies and initiatives that aim toaddress Perths urban problems.

Perth is on its way to becoming an

urban sprawl that would make it two-thirds the size of greater New Yorkbut with just a sliver of the Big Apple'spopulation. Greater New York is home

to more than 18 million people covering17,400sqkm. Perth's population o 1.9million covers 5500sqkm. But based oncurrent growth rates, Perth could reach3.8 million people by 2050 sprawlingacross 12,000sqkm.And our homes are getting bigger - adecade ago a new WA home averaged

220sqm, now they average 245sqm.Despite the bigger homes, there arefewer people in them. (Wright, 2011)

The development o a series o regionaland local plans and policies over thelast 50 years illustrates the ways inwhich the citys urban problems havebeen addressed. Regional plans thathave been implemented include, theCorridor Plan, the Metroplan and, morerecently, Network City. (Atkinson, 2009)

The Corridor Plan

The StephensonHepburn Plan o1955 represented the rst regional

planning approach to the long-termplanning o Perths growth. TheCorridor Plan o the 1970s evolved outo this plan and was the basis or thecitys development up until the mid-

1980s. It identied our major transportcorridorsnorth-west, east, south-eastand south-westall extending fromthe CBD. The plan aligned the growtho the city along these corridors, andit was considered these would alsoprovide an economical inrastructureor the growing population. While itwas not the prime intention o the plan,the Corridor Plan also ortuitouslyprotected areas o natural bush landbetween these corridors. Even today,much o the morphology o the citysurban development can be attributedto this plan. (Atkinson, 2009)

The Metroplan

In 1987, ater a period o review, the rst major change to the Corridor Planwas endorsed by the government

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Network City Framework, Perth

Source: Western Australian Planning Commission, 2005

Network City

Introduced in late 2004, Network Cityis an overarching ramework that hasbeen designed to act as a planningguide or government departments

in WA. It incorporates the Perth andPeel and Murray regions and aims topromote sustainable development.Network City resulted rom a processinvolving dialogue with 1000 people

o the day. The resulting Metroplanbrought some important changes tothe concept o corridor development.One o its prime objectives was to slow

down the outward growth o the cityby encouraging an intensication ourban land use through consolidation.In addition to the traditional orms odetached housing, the plan detailed anincreasing emphasis on well-designedmedium density housing locatedclose to specied centres o activity

and public transport facilities. Urbanrenewal and redevelopment was alsoencouraged, and this was emphasised tolocal councils by the state government.Metroplan also addressed the allingpublic transport patronage at the timeby emphasising the need or higherdensity housing along existing railwaylinks and around existing regionalcentres. (Atkinson, 2009)

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Directions 2031 and Beyond

Directions 2031 and Beyond the latestgrowth strategy or Perth, launchedin 2010. It is aimed to tighten up the

sprawling city, and plan or higherdensity living and greater public

transport. John Day, Western AustraliaPlanning Minister said a big boost ininll housing (whereby additional unitswere added to an already approvedsubdivision or neighborhood) wasneeded to help accommodate the550,000 extra residents expected inthat time. (Perth Now, 2010)

The 20-year strategy set a target o 47per cent or inll development, withthe other 53 per cent coming fromgreenelds developments (whereby

We cannot continue simply

to focus on more urbansprawlthat has high costs

in providing infrastructure,

high social costs, high

transport costs. So, we

do need to become a more

compact city than we have

been in the past.''

John Day (Western

Australia Planning Minister)

in September 2003, a change romprevious strategies that involved onlysmall groups of experts in the eld. Asa plan, Network city aims to express:

a contemporary understanding othe challenges acing Perth andPeel and the options or respondingimaginatively to them. Many o theseprinciples and plans have been aroundor a long time, and many orm thebasis or important initiatives such aspolicies or liveable neighbourhoods,

water sensitive urban design, vibrantcentres, transit oriented developmentand better public transport and majorinrastructure investments such as NewMetroRail. Network city brings togetherthese policies and other innovationsin a more integrated orm and with arenewed sense o urgency. Within theplan, there is an emphasis on growthmanagement, containing urban sprawl,and enhancing opportunities or urbanregeneration and renewal withinthe existing urban area. (WesternAustralian Planning Commission,2005)

new land is allocated for projects). Theinll target was well above the 30 to 35per cent achieved over the past decadeor so

The new strategy ocused on providingve to six story structures along majorpublic transport routes or highways.The aim was smaller homes on averageand greater use o public transportwhile ensuring Perth remained one othe most livable cities in the world.

``We also need to get areas oemployment, industrial landdevelopments and other commercialdevelopments, so that people can,hopeully, live not too ar rom wherethey are working,'' says Mr Day. (PerthNow, 2010)

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Lessons from London

Urban Inll Strategies in London. Potential inll sites and value.Source: http://www.urbaninll.co.uk

Density diferences between New York, Paris and London. d.p.h (dwellings per hectare)Source: http://www.urbaninll.co.uk

45d.p.h

90d.p.h

100d.p.h

With population set to increase by 1.3million in the 25 years to 2031, andaverage household size declining from2.34 persons/household to 2.19, the

number o households in London couldrise by 0.9 million This approximatesto 34,000 additional households a year.(Greater London Authority, 2009)

For a major city, London has a remarkablylow housing density at 45 dph (dwellingsper hectare) compared to other cities

such as New York (100 dph) and Paris(90 dph). There are many opportunitiesor well designed, conscientious andcontextual buildings to ll missingteeth within the urban abric. The termurban inll can be best understood asa conscious eort to increase the densityand intensity o previously developedurban sites. (Meyer, 1999)

These urban-cavities are all around orbuilding within Central London via inlldevelopment. Under-used garages, gapsat the end o terraces, spaces above shopsor licensed premises are just a ew placesin which inll buildings oer excellentdesign opportunities. In turn this benets

the citys appearance and unctionality,reduces the necessity or urban sprawland yields excellent nancial rewards orproperty owners.

Urban Infill

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Urban Inll example in West London.Source: http://www.urbaninll.co.uk

Existing: Two disused garages

Proposed: New retail unit + three bedtriplex

Build cost: 300k

Sale Value: 700k

Profit: 400k

Situated between neighbouringbuildings in West London, twoneglected garages have a detrimentalimpact on the streetscape. The gap

between the buildings is at a prominentstreet junction where a building o higharchitectural merit will provide a muchneeded ocal point.

This inll building has been designedin an intentionally bold and modernstyle to avoid creating a pastiche in this

neighborhood o mixed architecturalprecedent. The intention was also tocater or the needs o a young, vibrantand creative local community. Thisaddition improves the appearance othe urban environment whilst providingthe reeholder with a very substantialprot. (Urban Inll , 2012)

>The strategic lling o urban cavitiescan help reduce the need or urbansprawl and can yield great nancialrewards or property owners.

>A clever way of intensifying the citycenter, while using up derelict urbanland.

>Could be a great strategy or post-quake Christchurch, with largeamounts o urban land waiting to be re-

developed.

>It is a chance to insert mixed-usedbuildings into the urban center, andprovided a great range o housingchoices.

>Loss o light and privacy

>Lack o open space and greenery

>Increase in noise levels

>Hard or neighborhoods to maintainits identity.

Benefits:Example Pitfalls:

3 0 Urban Planning Zoning strangulation by government. new homes per year on the ringes o

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3.0 Urban PlanningThe case for sprawl

The case for intensification

Limiting greeneld developments candrive up house prices across board.

Constraints on release o residentialland creates scarcity, limits choices andincreases market price.

Immediate release o land will easesupply constraints and reduce pressureon prices.

CHCH housing is 6.3x more thanmedian income. It should only be 3x!

We should be building 4000-5000

Christchurch.

High density intensied central urbanplanning is the governments keyobjective at the expense o displacedred zoners who are leaving the city.

ARC REPORT - In the section onhousing aordability, the reportconcludes: The model outputs on rentindicate that aordability deterioratesfor all scenarios similarly. An expansivescenario has little eect on housingaordability across the region, despite

the release of 50% more land thanthe compact scenarios or urbandevelopment.

http://www.propbd.co.nz/afa.asp?idWebPage=8338&idBobDeyProperty_Articles=14336&SID=59

Get land opened up on thefringes ASAP!

Build as many affordablehouses * as we can for thepeople in the Red Zone.

Hugh Pavletich

Sprawl will cause the urbanization ofproductive rural land.

It is more economically viable or

developing transport inrastructure.

Cuts down the cost o commute byworkers.

Reduces congestion and pollution inthe city.

Intensication can reduce the landcosts/unit (lower rents) and provideaordable options within centres thathave good access to transport (lowertransport costs).

The lower transport costs (in terms ominutes) that would be experienced bythe compact scenarios would start tooset housing costs overall. Thereore,when considering the combined costs ohousing & transport, a compact scenariowould have greater aordability.

- Auckland Regional Council Report,2009

Kill Sprawl before itkills you!

3.1 Sprawl Info-graphic to be made...

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3.1 Sprawl

3.2 Intensication

Externalities (positives, negatives)

Info graphic to be made...

Externalities (positives, negatives)

> Housing aordability is incompatible with restrictive land-use?...one literature review lists more than 25 studies over a period of 30 years, all of which indicate a potential for associationbetween more restrictive land use regulations and higher house prices. (Cox & Pavletich, 2012)> Increasing urban development puts pressure on suburban centres and towns to maintain their individual and districtidentities. (GCUDS, 2007)> Recent examples o housing inll have raised issues about the loss o period houses, light and privacy, open space andgreenery (particularly large trees) and increases in noise and a neighbourhoods ability to maintain its identity. (GCUDS,2007)

Research in Christchurch highlighted strong resistance to inll housing among residents, and the way it was seen tocontradict the garden city heritage and undermine an established and valued way o suburban lie intimately linked withfamily and social relations (Vallance et al., 2005).

Inner city residents o medium density housing in Christchurch were similarly concerned about the intrusive nature o

any urther increase in densities and the lower quality o development and standards o living they are associated with.Increased density was seen as actually lowering the social sustainability o housing; intensication o inner city sites sawthe displacement o lower income households rom the ageing housing stock in which they had enjoyed accessibilitybenets by more prosperous residents in modern, well-appointed units (Ancell and Fawcett Thompson, 2007).

* In economics, an externality, or transaction spillover, is a cost or benet not transmitted through prices that is incurredby a party who did not agree to the action causing the cost or benet. (e.g. urban sprawl causes negative externalities suchas transportation costs, infrastructure costs, pollution etc..)

> car use dependency> demand or new inrastructure and services> the encroachment of the built environment into other land use zones.

3.3 OUR FUTURE PLANS

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NZ Council Plans (which way are we heading? In support or against of sprawl)

What is the Council is planning for!?

Yet to be analyzed:

An overview of what has already beenplanned or the uture o Christchurch,and to critically analyze if they areeective.

> CCC Plan> Greater Christchuch UrbanDevelopment Plan> Productivity Commission Report> National Party Plan> Labour Party Plan

3.3.1 The Greater Christchurch Urban Development Strategy

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the edge o the city and the balanceo 22,000 households mainly throughgreeneld development integratedwith existing district towns. (GCUDS,

2007)

The proposed settlement patternis based upon maintaining thedistinction between urban and ruralareas by concentrating development atand around existing urban areas, bothlarge and small. The Strategy proposes

that over the next 35 years GreaterChristchurchs growth will be split71% within Christchurch City, 16% inSelwyn District and 13% in WaimakaririDistrict. (GCUDS, 2007)

Decentralised Pattern ofDevelopment

Growth in Christchurch has been

characterised by a decentralised patterno development. This has occurredas a result o demographic andsocio-economic changes (e.g. steadypopulation growth, higher householdincomes, desire or home ownershipand changes in the dominant modes otransport rom oot, bicycle, and tram

to the private car).

The response to this pattern odevelopment was the adoptionby successive regional planningauthorities during the period between1959 and 1991 of spatial policies forcontainment o urban growth within theChristchurch built-up area, combined

with planned decentralisation opopulation at designated satellitegrowth centres at Rangiora, Kaiapoi,Woodend and Rolleston.

The main points o the GreaterChristchurch Urban DevelopmentStrategy (GCUDS) are:

> Urban sprawl is minimized.

> Our electricity, communications,sewage, water and waste water systemsgrow with our population.

The Greater Christchurch populationcontinues to grow. The GCUDS is a

collaborative planning eort betweenlocal authorities in the greaterChristchurch metropolitan area.

Greater Christchurch is expectingan increase of around 75,000 newhouseholds over the next 35 years,with two thirds o this growth withinthe rst 20 years. An assessment was

made o the capacity or plannedintensication in Central Christchurchand elsewhere in the existing built uparea o Christchurch, together withan allowance made or on-going inll.In total these areas are to be plannedand (re)developed to accommodatean additional 33,500 households,

indicating a rate of 45% intensicationand inll as the strategy target.

A further 19,500 households areproposed or new developments on

Overview of Growth Issues Current Growth Containment

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A number of key issues inuencing theuture growth o Greater Christchurchare:

> Dispersed urban growth in GreaterChristchurch has resulted in a losso connectivity between living andworking. People are now travellingincreased distances to see riends, go towork or obtain goods and services.

> High quality open space is becoming

increasingly scarce. As population anddwelling densities increase it becomeseven more important to provide andadequately manage open spaces

> An aging population requires dierentinfrastructure and new investment. Asthe population ages, the requirementsor recreation and transport acilities, in

particular, may change.

Christchurch City Council has apolicy o urban containment that hasdiscouraged development on the urbanringe and promoted consolidation

within existing urban areas. Demandor urban land that cannot be met inChristchurch has been accommodatedin the surrounding districts. ThisStrategy has been initiated in responseto the adverse eects arising rom thelocation and orm o urban growth.Four settlement plans or managing

uture growth were developed during2004 - 2005. The Great ChristchurchMetropolitan area was in avour othe concentration option, with 63%public support. The next most popularoption was the consolidated orm andthe option proposing a dispersed ormwas the least facoured.(Lilley, 2006)

l

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Business as usualSource: GCUDS, 2007

Option A - ConcentrationSource: GCUDS, 2007

Option A Concentration

The concentration option putforward by the GCUDS posed a newhousing development ocus on central

Christchurch and inner suburbsof Riccarton, Spreydon, St Albans,Waltham and Linwood. O a proposed62,000 additional dwellings, 60%would be via the process o renewalor redevelopment, and 40% by newsubdivision or traditional inll. Multi-storey townhouses, apartments and fats

would replace villas and bungalows,and mixed development o commercialspace on lower foors and residential onupper foors would occur.

Business as Usual

This settlement pattern wouldcontinue with the current trends odevelopment spreading out around

the Greater Christchurch area in newsubdivisions, with some housing inurban renewal developments. Councilswould continue to pursue independentgrowth strategies.

Option B Consolidated Form

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Option B Consolidated FormSource: GCUDS, 2007

Option C Dispersed FormSource: GCUDS, 2007

Proposed to balance uture urbandevelopment between existing builtareas, with particular attention to keyocal points, and some expansion intoadjacent areas. This option was the

second most popular, ollowing theconcentration option.

Option C Dispersed Form

Proposed to disperse development outaround the Greater Christchurch area

away rom established urban areas.This option was the least supported bythe Christchurch Metropolitan area.

The Great Christchurch

Metropolitan area was in

favour of the concentration

option, with 63% public

support. The next most

popular option was the

consolidated form and the

option proposing a dispersed

form was the least favoured.

Proposed settlement pattern

The Strategy proposes that over the next

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Proposed settlement pattern

The proposed settlement pattern isbased upon maintaining the distinctionbetween urban and rural areas byconcentrating development at and

around existing urban areas, both largeand small.

Transport is a key component oan integrated approach to land usedevelopment. Securing the main north,west and southern corridors to ensureaccessibility to the Port o Lyttelton and

International Airport are top priorities.Enhanced public transport services,that provide practical and aordablealternatives to using private motorcars,are essential or a more sustainableand environmentally riendly transportsystem. Christchurch Airportsoperation would not be compromisedby urban expansion under the fight

path to ensure competitiveness andaccessibility.

Commercial and business activitycentres to the north at Belast andsouthwest at Hornby will be developedto meet the needs o city residents andpeople living beyond these city edges.

A revitalised Central City serves asa regional ocus or commerce andentertainment and as home or 30,000residents. (GCDUS,2007)

35 years Greater Christchurchs growth

will be split 71% within Christchurch

City, 16% in Selwyn District and 13% in

Waimakariri District.

Proposed Settlement Plan or Greater Christchurch RegionSource: GCUDS, 2007

3.3.2 The Christchurch Central City Plan

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The Christchurch Central City Plan(CCCP) aims to bring people into thecity center to live and work. Beore theearthquake, the Central City was already

home to 7700 residents. The GreaterChristchurch Urban DevelopmentStrategy (GCUDS), and subsequentCanterbury Regional Policy Statement,identiy the Central City as a keyresidential growth area as part o a shittowards a more consolidated urbanorm in Greater Christchurch.

The Central City Plan proposes greaterchoice o housing in the Central Cityto attract a diverse range o residents,including amilies who seek saeenvironments in which to raise theirchildren; places where they can enjoya range o stimulating activities in ahealthy environment.

For the Central Citys recovery to besuccessul it requires a signicantresidential population to supportbusiness growth and development,and create a high level o activity andvibrancy. This works in conjunction withthe councils plan or a more compact

CBD in the uture. (Christchurch CityCouncil, 2011)

The CCCP set out ve key initiatives toshape the uture Christchurch:

A greener more attractive city, supported bya wider and upgraded Avon River/takarocorridor, a greener Cathedral Square, new streettrees throughout the Central City, 500 newgreen-rated buildings, rain gardens, surace

stormwater treatment and a new network oneighbourhood parks.

A lower rise city with sae, sustainable buildingsthat look good and unction well, supportedby urban design controls, new regulation andincentives, strengthened heritage buildingswith adaptive reuse, new lanes and courtyardsand precincts o distinct activities, characterand culture.

A more compact Central Business District(CBD) supported by business incentives, newregulations and well-designed streetscapes.Ultra-ast broadband and ree WiFi, short-termree car parking in Council-controlled car paring buildings and bus routes around the edgeso the CBD.

New high-quality inner city housing optionsand demonstration projects, residentialincentives, improved access to a wide range oschools, new metropolitan sporting acilities,a new Central Library, new public art andperorming arts venues and playgrounds.

A city easy to get to and around, supportedby excellent walking and cycling paths, high-

quality public transport, a network o green two-way streets and an efcient and attractive ringroad or trafc around Moorhouse, Fitzgerald,Bealey, Harper and Deans avenues.

Beore and ater diagrams showing the ve key initiatives toredevelop the city.Source: Christchurch City Council, 2011

1. Green city

2. Stronger built identity

3. Compact CBD

4. Live, work, play, learn and visit

5. Accessible city

Overview

Housing strategies for Christchurch City

R id ti l I ti S i l H i

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Residential Incentives Social HousingThe council has planned or a residentialincentives package to make the CentralCity an aordable housing choice,which will get more people living in

and enjoying lie in the new city.

The package will address the highdevelopment costs o building in theCentral City and potential homeownershaving diculty in securing nance tobuy a home. The project will introduce aDevelopment Contributions rebate anda Central City Home Buyers AssistanceIncentive.

The Central City Home BuyersAssistance Incentive will reduce thedeposit required or a home loan.Many traditional lenders require highdeposits or Central City apartmentstyle properties. Lowering the level o

deposit will make home ownership inthe Central City more accessible to awider range o people which is the keyto providing the demand developersseek beore committing to newdevelopments.

The incentives will be based around

criteria to ensure quality design andthese will be targeted to areas othe Central City where the greatestopportunities or creating newcommunities exist. (CCCP, 2011)

The social housing project is aimedat rebuilding the Central Citys socialhousing stock, and work with partnersto assess uture social housing needs.

The estimated budget is around$300,000.

The City Council has provided low-cost accommodation to low-incomeresidents in Christchurch or more than70 years, operating as a sel-undingentity. Following the earthquakes,Council has 116 complexes throughoutthe city which have sustained damage.This provides an opportunity toconsider relocation o some o theseproperties closer to the Central City oreasier access to acilities and services.

Repairs and replacements will takeplace within the next two years, and

the Council will work with centralgovernment and other parties toincrease options or social housing.

Location o small-scale social housingclose to the neighbourhood centresand community acilities, along withintegration o social housing with other

homes, is desirable as it increases thehousehold diversity, can reduce socialisolation and oster local communityresilience.

The Central City will be an afordable place or everyone tolive.

Source: Christchurch City Council, 2011

Development Contributions Rebateand Central City HomebuyersAssistance Package

Where: Central City (with criteriaapplied)

When: From 2012

Who: Christchurch City Council

Cost: $17.9 million

Neighbourhood CentresAffordable Housing

A new agency will be established to The CCCP has identied ve broadthe Central City, including mixed use

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A new agency will be established tomake housing more aordable in thecentral city or low-to middle incomeearners.

The housing agency will investigateand develop options to make housingin the Central City more aordable andwork with private partners and centralgovernment to deliver a better rangeo aordable houses. The Council islooking to invest $14 million into thisproject.

The availability o aordable housingwill encourage households, who wouldotherwise not be able to aord to live inthe Central City, especially young, rsthome buyers and amilies.

A greater number of people living inthe Central City will bring vibrancy,

variety and business activity to thearea and increase use o the new andreturning acilities, open spaces, retailand entertainment areas.

The Council has explored new housingsolutions in response to changingliestyles and urban growth challenges.The available housing typologiesdemonstrate a wide range o bestpractice choices to deliver high-qualityhouses and neighbourhood amenity inexisting and new residential areas in

The CCCP has identied ve broadareas within the city as potentialneighbourhood centers to provide aocus and identity or existing andnew residential communities. Thegeographical extent, ocal points andcharacter o these neighborhoods willevolve over time.

These neighbourhood centres willbe accessible and support day-to-day needs o the local communitieswith convenience shopping andlocal services and acilities in close

proximity. Some centres already existand will be redeveloped; some areas arerecognized as neighborhoods but haveno identied centre; while others willevolve as more residents move into theCentral City and new neighborhoodsemerge. (See proposed precincts mapto on the next page.)

the Central City, including mixed usedesigns. The Council is also supportinga number o initiatives or greenhousing.

Neighbourhood centres project

Where: Identified neighbourhood centres

When: 2012 to 2018

Who: Christchurch City Council to

implement, working in collaboration with

community organizations (e.g.churches) and social service agencies

Cost: $2.9 million

Affordable housing project

Where: Where opportunity is available

When: Starting 2012

Who: The Council and partners

Cost: $14 million

Afordable housing will encourage more people to call theCentral City home.

Source: Christchurch City Council, 2011

Housing Showcase

The council is also looking at high

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Proposed uture neighbourhood scenarioSource: Christchuch City Council, 2011

Proposed uture precincts and areas o interest.Source: Christchuch City Council, 2011

g gquality, commercially viable exampleso residential development that willinspire developers and show potentialresidents the benets o living in theCentral City. There will be $200,000worth o unding every year or thisprogramme starting in 2012.

The Housing Showcase will be createdearly in the redevelopment o the cityto help motivate high-quality urbandesign outcomes or Christchurch. Itwill ocus on new mixed-use, inner-city

neighbourhood displaying mediumdensity homes, based on sustainabledesign principles.

The Council will consider establishinga number o housing showcases i theopportunity arises.

Housing showcase project

Where: Size and location to be decided

with development partners

When: Early in the redevelopment process

to influence other developments (2012-

13)

Who: Christchurch City Council,

Department of Building and Housing,Beacon Pathway, private developers and

technology providers

Cost: $200,000 annually for three years

3.3.3 THE ISSUE OF AFFORDABILITY

Housing affordability draft report (Auckland Focus)

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Housing affordability draft report (Auckland Focus)

Commission Chair Murray Sherwinsays, The 2001-2007 housing boomwas unprecedented with house pricesalmost doubling over that period.

Aordable quality housingis undamental to successulcommunities. And its abundantly clearthat or younger people and those onlower incomes there is a missing stepon the property ladder, particularlyin Auckland. The chances of themever purchasing their rst home aredecreasing.The Commissions keyrecommendations include:

The urgent need for more land to be

opened up or housing, especially inurban areas, because sections nowaverage about 40% to 60% o the cost oa house.

Reconsideration of Aucklands draftspatial plan. Auckland faces signicanthousing aordability challenges andthe Commission ound its current plan,with a target of accommodating 75%o new homes within existing urbanboundaries, will be dicult to reconcilewith aordable housing. Improved processes for consenting, tospeed up the service and lower costs. Improving how local councildevelopment charges or inrastructureare calculated and applied, includingmaking them reviewable.

The Commission considers thatthere is scope to improve productivityin the home construction sector andendorses the work o the Buildingand Construction Sector ProductivityPartnership, established in 2010 as ajoint industry-government initiative.

The Commission ound that land pricesnow account or up to 60% o the cost oa house in Auckland.

That means new homes tend to be

at the top-end o the market. No oneis going to put a $150,000 home on a$300,000 section, Mr Sherwin said.

The cost o building materials andhouse construction is also high in NewZealand compared to Australia, and thehome construction sectors productivityis fat-lining.The high costs o building and land areconstraining the supply o aordablenew houses available or purchase.Yet, New Zealand faces a growingpopulation.

Projections are or around 400,000 newhouseholds over the next 20 years, withhalf of these in Auckland.

We think its important to makeurgent changes to accommodate whats

coming down the line, Mr Sherwinsaid.

If the Authorities had made

affordable land available

from the outset with $50,000

sections on the fringes, there

would have been in excess of

5,000 new homes available

for people now.

-Hugh Pavletich

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Christchurch Quick Facts

* GCUDS

** 2006 Stats NZ Data

2006 Population 348,435

422,100

73,665

0.85%

24,000+

75,000*

1000 aprox.

2031 Population

Population growth from 06-31

Average annual growth rate

New housing units needed to accomodate inux of workers

New housing units break down by type**

Average number of new housing units constructed per year

New housing units needed to accomodate population growth

74% Separate House

22% Two or more Flats/Units Joined

4% Others/ Not Dened

Source: Statistics New Zealand Data Set, 2006

4.0 CHRISTCHURCH CITY - MARKET RESEARCHChristchurchs Demographics What were the immediate impacts This may suggest an outward migration

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In order to understand the housingrequirement or Christchurch, it isimportant to study the demographicmakeup of the city. After gathering in

depth data regarding the demographics,then is logical to apply an urbanstrategy according to the ndings.

Total Population

>348,435 people usually live inChristchurch City. This is an increaseof 24,375 people, or 7.5 percent, since

the 2001 Census.

>Its population ranks 2nd in size out ofthe 73 districts in New Zealand.

>Christchurch City has 8.7 percent oNew Zealands population

What are the population projectionsand how will that affect housing?

Populations are projected to rise by60,300 to 422,100 in 2031 (at the mediumvariant), which is a 17% increase in theperiod of 25 years.

The GCUDS expects at least 75,000new housing units to accommodatethis increase in population.

after the Earthquakes?

Statistics New Zealand released its sub-national population estimates for June2011 in late October 2011.

These showed that between June 2010and June 2011, Christchurch city lost8900 people. This compares with along-term average annual increase oabout 3500 people per annum since1996.

This loss was in the 0 to 14 (4,800) and15 to 39 (5,200) year age groups.

Factors contributing to this decreaseincluded:

> an increased outfow o young childrenand their parents

> an increased outfow o young adults,who tend to be a highly mobile sub-group o the population

> a decrease in the number o youngadults moving to Christchurch city tostudy.

While Christchurch citys populationdecreased, the remainder o theCanterbury region experiencedpopulation growth of 3,900 (2.1 percent).

o Christchurch City population to thesurrounding Canterbury regions post-earthquake. (Statistics NZ, 2011)

Impact on education and enrolment

Data at 13 September 2011 shows5442 students were still away fromtheir original school within Selwyn,Waimakariri and Christchurch.

O these, 1600 had moved withinChristchurch, and 375 and 225 had

moved within or to Wamakariri andSelwyn respectively.

The total net loss o school students isaround 3250 from the GCUDS area or4.3% of the total students at July 2010.(Statistics NZ, 2011)

Influx of construction and otherworkers heading to Christchurchgenerated by the earthquake.

In the Press on 34 March 2012, theCanterbury Employment and SkillsBoard estimates that the earthquakerebuild will require 24,000 carpenters,painters, labourers, concrete layersand other trades, plus a urther 12,000managers, accountants, engineers,shop sta and hospitality workers, to

support them. That is a total o 20,000k l

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to 30,000 workers, plus in many casestheir amilies.

Were talking about a 10-to-15 yearrebuild. So, or many, it is going tobe a potentially permanent move...says Canterbury Employers Chambero Commerce chie executive PeterTownsend. (Stu.co.nz, 2012)

Many o the arriving workers will beolder skilled tradespeople, and theyare usually married with one or two

kids. This will put more pressure on thesupply o housing in Christchurch.

Townsend gives quiet a grim analogyo the current situation: The simpleway that I look at it is weve eectivelylost an Ashburton inside our city ifyou look at the houses that have been

destroyed. And to accommodate theinfux o workers, we will need anothertwo Ashbutons.

Townsend concludes that ...we needa total of another three Ashburtonsinside Christchurch by the end o nextyear.(Stu.co.nz, 2012)

Ashburton

Population: 30,000

Households: 10,821

We need a total of three Ashburtons inside Christchurch by end of next year...

4.1 Age & Sex

Th di i 36 4 l Th di t ib ti l d

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The median age is 36.4 years or peoplein Christchurch City, which is slightlyolder compared to the rest o NewZealand as a whole, where the medianage is 35.9 years.

>Christchurch City has a higherpercentage of population aged 65years and over, at 13.5%, compared with12.3 percent o the total New Zealandpopulation.

>18.8 percent o people are aged under

15 years in Christchurch City, comparedwith 21.5 percent for all of New Zealand.

>The distribution o males andfemales are about even at 48% and 52%respectively.

Age and Sex ProjectionsOverall the population o ChristchurchCity tends to be on older, with majorityo population in the older age-groups.

Projections show that the trend willcontinue this way, with the babyboomers (those aged 45-64 in 2011)

moving to the 65-84 age groups in 2031.

This data proves that the utureChristchurch population will have moreempty nesters, where old couples havestayed, while the younger generations

have migrated away.

Median age is 36.4 years for

people in Christchurch City

48% 52% Projections show dominant age

group to be 65-84 years in 2031

4.2 Ethnicity

Th th i k Ch i t h h

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The ethnic make-up o ChristchurchCity is dominated by Europeans at75%, and the Maori and Pacic peoplesaccount for 11%. Asians make up about8%.

> In 2006, over two thirds (68 per cent)o Central City residents identied withthe European ethnic group. This hasdecreased rom 88 per cent in 1996.

> In 2006, almost one-fth (19 per cent)o Central City residents identied

with the Asian ethnic group. This hasincreased rom 7 percent in 1996.

> In 2006, 6.5 per cent of Central Cityresidents identied with the Maoriethnic group. This has decreased rom8 per cent in 1996.

> In 2006, 1.6 per cent o Central Cityresidents identied with the PacicPeoples ethnic group. This hasdecreased rom 2 percent in 1996.

(Statistics NZ, 2006 census)

Proportion o ethnicity among the populationSource: Statistics New Zealand Data Set, 2006

Ethnicity proportion o population living in Central CitySource: Statistics New Zealand Data Set, 2006

M k E i d240,000

250,000

UDS Pre Earthquake

4.3 Impact of Earthquake on Households

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Market Economics was contractedto provide a household model thattook into account the impact o theearthquake on the UDS projections, and

subsequently, the impact on projectionswithin the three Central City area units.

This model uses three UDS levelscenarios that refect possible impactson uture growth as a result o theearthquake. The low impact scenarioassumes a small immediate loss ohouseholds (2%) and a return to the

normal growth rate relatively quickly.

The major impact scenario assumesa high level of initial loss (5%), withgrowth taking longer to recover.

The medium impact scenario is thehal-way point between both scenarios.

Note all scenarios expect growth toreturn to normal ater about 10 years.

(See line graph to the right)

150,000

160,000

170,000

180,000

190,000

200,000

210,000

220,000

230,000

240,000

2006 2011 post

earthquake

2016 2021 2031 2041

ProjectedHouse

holds

Projecton Year

UDS -low impact scenario

UDS -medium impact scenario

UDS -High impact scenario

Future scenarios o household numbers or the Greater Christchurch Urban Development Strategy area.Source: CCCP, 2011

4.4 Household Changes60.0%

St ti ti N Z l d j ti

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In 2006, there were

41,900 couples in

Christchurch. By 2031,

there will be 62,200

couples. That is anincrease of 48% !

One-person households

are projected to

increase by an average

of 2.0 percent a year,

from 363,000 in 2006 to602,000 in 2031.

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

New Zealand Auckland Christchurch

Couple One Parent Two Parent Single Person Other Mult-Person

Statistics New Zealand projectionso household composition and agestructure indicate the demographicdrivers o the shit towards smaller

households, the main one being anincrease in couple and single personhouseholds over the 25 years from 2006to 2031. This compared with modestgrowth in two parent amilies and alikely contraction in single parentamilies a pattern most pronounced inChristchurch.

The resulting all in average householdsize is what informs projections ofthe potential or higher residentialdensities, both as a result o the generaltendency towards smaller householdsand because amilies with childrenare becoming a smaller componento the long-term housing prole. This

expectation is moderated for Auckland,where past migration gains and ethnicdiversity have maintained a youngerage prole.

Analysis of Statistics New Zealand age-specic projections casts some light onthe possible consequences o the overallchanges in household type. By ar thebulk o people driving uture growth insingle and two person households areempty nesters (represented by peopleaged between 50 to 64 years for present

Changing Household Composition, 2006-2031Source: Statistics New Zealand Data Set, 2006

purposes) and early or active retirees(represented by people aged 65 to 79

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( p y p p g 5 79years; Figure 4). Together they accountor 74% o the projected growth in smallerhouseholds. Analysis of apartmentdwellers in 2006 suggests that currently

these groups are not likely to reside inapartments, particularly in the centralof city. (Dunbar & McDermott, 2011)

Household composition

> In 2006, 41 percent o Central Cityhouseholds consisted o one amily,

compared with 66 percent city-wide.

> In 2006, 15 per cent of Central Cityhouseholds consisted o other multi-person households (in a non-amilysituation, e.g. atting), compared with7 per cent city-wide.

> In 2006, 40 per cent o Central Cityhouseholds consisted o one-personhouseholds, compared with 25 per centcity-wide.

(Statistics NZ, 2006 census)

Family type

>In 2006, 68 per cent o Central Cityamilies were couples without children,compared with 42 per cent city-wide.

Make up o amily type in the Central CitySource: Statistics New Zealand Data Set, 2006

>In 2006, 17 per cent o Central Cityamilies were couples with children,compared with 40 per cent city-wide.

>In 2006, 15 per cent of Central Cityamilies were one parent with children,compared with 18 per cent city-wide.

Growing trend of inner city dwellings

The 2010 Statistics New Zealand surveyof apartment dwellers in AucklandWellington, and Christchurch in2006 indicated that 49% o inner city

apartment dwellers were aged between20 and 29 years, and 24% o non innercity dwellers. These gures were wellahead o a 13% share o the national

population.By contrast, only around 15% of peopleliving in inner city and 25% in outer cityapartments were aged over 50 years,compared with a 29% share o the totalpopulation.

The young adults who have dominatedthe expansion o inner city apartmentliving orm only 11% o the gainprojected in the small household groupin Canterbury.

Their declining share o the market

raises questions over how ar themomentum they have provided orapartment dwelling in central citylocations will be sustained.

By contrast the empty nester group

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By contrast, the empty nester groupaccounts or 47% o the expansion amongthe couples and single-dominated agein Christchurch. These people are moreimportant early in the period, but theweight swings progressively to theearly retired group later.

In fact, people aged over 50 yearsaccount for around 55% of all projectedpopulation growth in Auckland, 52% inWellington, and 53% in Christchurch.

While the projections are indicativeonly, the strong inerence is that theprojected growth in demand or smallerhouses is shiting rom the youngadults and non-amily households withwhom they have been associated to aast expanding empty nester segmentand increasingly the early retirement

segment.

This may even help explain anapparently slow uptake o mediumdensity housing, suggesting that oldercouples do not necessarily downsizetheir housing, at least not until wellater the children have let home.Many also avour remaining in amiliarneighborhoods when they do downsize.The assumption that a growing numbero smaller households will lit demandor centralised, multi-unit and multi-

Projected Distribution o Younger and Older Adults, 2006-2031Source: Statistics New Zealand, 2006

storey housing may be a misreadingo current market preerences amongthose cohorts which are now behind

the increase in smaller households.(Dunbar & McDermott, 2011)

4.5 Income

The median annual household income

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The median annual household incomein Christchurch is $48,200 (Auckland$72,000) where in the poorer east itis just $46,000, the lowest o any majormetro in New Zealand and Australia.(Cantaburians Unite, 2012)

> In 2006, the median household incomewas $48,200. This is an increase o 32per cent since 2001, when the medianhousehold income was $36,500.

> In 2006, one-parent with child(ren)amilies were more likely to be on lowerincomes than other amily types. Suchamilies were ar less likely to be onhigher incomes than other amily types.

> In 2006, only 7 per cent o one-parentwith child(ren) families earned over

$70,000 per year, compared with 46 percent of couple with child(ren) familiesand 33 per cent o couple withoutchildren amilies.

> Generally household incomes areproportionally higher in the CentralCity as a whole.

(Statistics NZ, 2006 census)

Family Income by Family TypeSource: Statistics New Zealand Data Set, 2006

Household Income, 2001 and 2006Source: Statistics New Zealand Data Set, 2006

4.6 Median House Sale Prices

Rapidly increasing house sale prices

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Rental Prices to beresearched...

p y g phave a signicant impact on housingaordability or rst time home buyers;while decreasing house sale pricesmake housing more aordable or thosetrying to get into the market.

Housing costs are generally the largestcomponent o household expenditure.The cost o housing plays a majorpart in the ability o households andamilies to own their own home, as wellas aecting the level o residual income

to spend on other essential householdcosts such as ood and power.

House sale prices are one o threecomponents that infuence housingaordability; the other two beingincome and mortgage interest rates.

(Statistics NZ, 2006 census)

> In October 2010, the six-monthlyrunning average median house pricewas $333,800.

> Between October 2002 and March2008, the average median house saleprice in Christchurch more thandoubled, increasing from $154,600 topeak at $332,800. This indicates thestart and peak o the New Zealandhousing boom.

This graph shows the number o monthly house salesand the average median house price in Christchurchrom January 1995 to 2010.Source: Real Estate Institute o New Zealand: HousingFacts.

> In October 2010, 343 houses weresold. The lowest number o sales in theabove time series was 237 in September2010 (which can be attributed to the7.1M earthquake that month), whilethe highest number was 1,191 in March1996.

4.7 Current Housing Supply

According to Statistics New Zealand, in main dwelling type in the City (74%).

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g ,2006, there was a total o 134,718 privateoccupied dwellings in Christchurch.

Housing Tenure

In Christchurch City, 57.6 percento households in private occupieddwellings own the dwelling, with orwithout a mortgage.

Christchuch is one o ew cities to havehigher levels o home ownership than

the rest of New Zealand (53.8%).

74%

22%

4%

Christchurch Dwelling Type 2006

Separate House

Two or more Flats or H