120101 TA Tech-Review

8/3/2019 120101 TA Tech-Review

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YEAR IN REVIEW

2011TECHINICAL

JANUARY2012

SPECIAL REPORT2011011TECHINICALYEAR IN REVIEWTECHINICAL

Its Not "Easy"

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MAY ANALYTICS

While the Main Stream Media and otherswere speculating that this was thebeginnings of a new "bull', we classified itas a rounded top and a corrective in a bearmarket. We specified in our Cover Article"Hybernation Over" that a Top was in theprocess and we would soon be headingdown, even though there was no clear signsyet (technically) of this. Without therounded top marked in for reference, thetrend still appears strong and setting up foranother lift. (CHART 1)

MAY ISSUE 2011ROUNDED TOP CALL

The rounded top has called a major pivot,and you can see the retesting of the right

hand side of the ellipse as we have movedforward (and down) keeping in line with theoverall pattern. The individual moves havealso behaved as expected inside a roundedtop formation.

e recognized the current rounded top formation rightom our initial publication. Even if we were to now

mehow veer away from the formation (not likely), weve had eight months that behaved according to, and

oved along with, a predicted pattern.

8 MONTHS LATERDECEMBER ISSUE 2011

CLEAR ROUNDED TOP FORMATION& INTERNAL BEHAVIOUR

Cover,Page 1

CHART 1

CHART 2

(CHART 2)

SPECIAL REPORT

THE SUMMER SESSION(JUNE, JULY & AUGUST)

Our June issue mentions for the first timethe Head & Shoulders pattern and wesuggest that it is significant and should be

watched out for. We prove this without adoubt in our December Issues' FeatureArticle, "Current Market Fractal: Head &Shoulders Pattern".June's TA discusses volatility, more up-down and another lift expected prior toany great sell off.

(cont. page. 2)

2011 YEAR ENDTECHNICALANALYSISREPORT CARD


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Page 2

2011TECHINICALYEAR IN REVIEWThe Summer Session (cont.)

The chart below (chart 3) from our July issueshows the up-down and lift that was expected.The Moving Average crosses are highlightedhere, noting how the last lift keeps a cross

from occurring. We warn that a drop isexpected and to watch for a cross of the 100DMA by the 50 DMA as a trigger.

(chart 3)

JULY ISSUE - DEATH CROSS SPYNO 50/100 DMA CROSS

Chart 4 below shows us what happened.Another drop and lift, this time crossing the50/100 DMA's and subsequently getting thesubstantial drop called for.

(chart 4)

SPY UPDATE

MA CROSS AND

DROP

The TA section of our August Issue used aGann analysis to further exemplify theRounded Top pattern and demonstrate whatwas occurring.

(chart 5)

(chart 6)

We updated this chart in November. Coming just shy of our expected support, we thenbounced as predicted back up towards theinside of the ellipse and channels. All this is'proper' Rounded Top behavior and adds moresupport to our call(s).

THE FALL SESSION

(SEPTEMBER & OCTOBER)

(chart 5)

(chart 6)

50 DMA

100 DMA

200 DMA00 D A

50/100 DMA Cross

September and October have us looking atpossible Elliott Wave counts as we decipherthe current patterns and potential next moves.Chart 7 (top of next page, pg 3) shows us thethinking in September, looking for anotherwave down at that time.

Chart 8 (page 3) shows how that played out forthe October analysis. We do indeed getanother wave down, followed by the expectedconsolidation lift one expects after thecompletion of EW's 5th wave.

(cont. page. 3)

JANUARY2012

SPECIAL REPORTPECIAL REPORT


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Page 3TECHINICALYEAR IN REVIEW2011

(chart 7)

The pattern starts to become more apparent,allowing us to make predictions of what ourfuture moves will be. It become obvious whereto be looking for the next pivots.

EW counts are dynamic and must be re-evaluated as the market dictates. Below youcan see how our count changed slightly, butstill provided and provides, accuratepredictions. The overall waves still play out asthey are expected to, in hindsight however,modifications for scale or rule violations allowyou to keep the EW count on track for the nextfew foreseeable waves to come.

Counts modified slightly in chart 8, still oncourse and provided / provides accurate

predictions. Waves 4 & 5 have been adjustedfrom chart 7 to waves A & B.

1

2

3

4

5

(chart 8)

The Fall Session (cont.)

S&P 500 HOURLY - SeptemberLOOKING FOR ANOTHER WAVE DOWN

(WAVE 5)

Chart 8 shows that even though we havemodified the count a little, we still providedaccurate warnings for the end of a significanttrend, the pivot location and lift for the nextwave. Chart 8 is also clearly showing where

that wave is expected to terminate and whereto be looking for the next pivot.

Up until this point, all of our analysis hasbeen provided for free in our Beta Issues on amonth to month basis.

November started our subscription plan andalso added an exciting new service. As well asthe regular analysis that you have seen hereso far being provided in our monthlypublication, we added inter-issue Updates &Alerts. These allow us to offer a more fluidand stable on-going analysis with twice aweek updates and alerts as needed.

November's analysis refreshed our location inthe rounded top and what to expect for thenext moves.

We also provided an update to our patternand targets from chart 8. See chart 10 (page4). Our expected target and pivot area come inas predicted.

OCTOBER ANALYSIS

NOVEMBER ANALYTICS

SPX DAILY - ROUNDED TOP& NEXT MOVES

(chart 9)

(cont. page. 4)

JANUARY2012



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Page 4

TECHINICALYEAR IN REVIEW

NOVEMBER - PATTERN UPDATE

November Analytics (cont.)

(chart 10)

Updated from chart 8, chart 10 above showswe had it right.

Our first ever Update & Alert issued on Nov16th took a look at the pattern forming off thetop resistance (c, 4) and predicted the movedown, prior to chart 10's publication.

As expected, we get a nice down move fromhere. The triangle is broken as well as the 50DMA trigger from chart 10.

On the evening of Sunday November 27, priorto Mondays open, we issued an alert (chart12) that warned of the coming pivot. In chart

12 you can see the down that occurred ascalled in our alert from Nov 16th (chart 11above) as well as the rational for our call onthe next pivot. We issued this as an alert, asour analysis gave us indications that theoverall pattern may not be entirely as we had

(chart 11)

(chart 11)

Predicting a down move to come

first thought, and was going to fall short of thelower support marked in chart 10, connectingwave 3 and the last low. Or rather, we are goingto have some bounce and play before we getthere.

Our December 6th Update had us revising theEW count once again, as well as warning ofanother pivot close at hand.

The wave labeled wave 4 in charts 10 & 12, hasbecome a wave A in chart 13. Our previousalert was right on target and formed wave B.Our Update here warns of a pending pivot tocomplete wave C. This pattern had beenidentified from our last alert and we had beenwatching it unfold, on queue, all week.

3

41

2

I

II

(chart 12)

DECEMBER ANALYTICS

2011

Alert issued the night before market opencatches the next pivot correctly

JANUARY2012


(cont. page. 5)

(chart 13)


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TECHINICALYEAR IN REVIEW2011

JANUARY2012


December Analytics (cont.)

Chart 14: From our December 8th update,analyzing the pivot. Our hourly chartsuggested triggers that were confirmed asthis pattern played out and we ended up withanother correct call. Note the predicted movesdotted in red - outcome seen in the blueshaded area in the next chart (chart 15).

Our call to continue on down towards ourpivot area, from the Dec 15th Update. The

blue shaded area reflects the move called inour Dec 8th Update channels set up thetrend continued move down towrds "D" ispredicted.

(chart 14)

(chart 15)

SPX Hourly - Dec 8th Update


(chart 16)

SPX Hourly - Dec 22nd Update

We issued an alert on the 20th (not shown) asour predicted move from the 15th played outand we neared our potential pivot area.

The trend actually ends up coming short on

our predicted pivot area, by 2 points, butconfirms "D" with a trigger by breaking out ofthe Blue channel.

Our update on the 22nd also tried to explainwhat was occurring, why and what to expectnext, using the diagram below.

We are in a contracting wave. This will nothave a clear end but will 'mix in' with the nextwave, which is expanding. Where the one isfading away the other is just beginning, in thesame space. This can cause wild volatilityand make trading more difficult. When the

waves are clearly expanding, then you knowwe have moved on to the next wave. Anexpansion of the waves in the next significantmove is to be expected.

(cont. page. 6)

(chart 16)

(diag.1)


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(chart 17)

Page 6


JANUARY2012

SPECIAL REPORTPECIAL REPORTDecember Analytics (cont.)


C

D

E

Our move up to "E" occurs as predicted. Wemake note of an allowable potential"overthrow" of our resistance, and thepending pivot. (Large arrow denotes trenddirection only - not path)

(chart 18)

C

D

E

Chart 18 is from our last update of the year,Dec.29th. We can see some play in the'overthrow' zone before heading back down,pivot called again... or at least the end of E.

WHAT'S NEXT?

By this chart it seems almost

obvious what is going on and

where we are headed? Some may

question how we know that we

won't get a lift from here on out

that breaks through the

downward channel?

A look at our Global Economic

situation is the answer. The only

lifts that are occurring, and will

occur, are artificially created by

the injection of cash. This will

provide further volatility and may

even push up another wave to the

top trend line. However there

have not been any solutions that

are 'game changers' to cause ashift in the overall trend.

ROUNDED TOP

As explained on page 5 of this report, diagram 1, we are expecting more volatility, and expandingwaves going in to a downward trend for the New Year.


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JANUARY2012


CONCLUSIONS

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As an Introductory Member, your subscription

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INTER-ISSUE UPDATES & ALERTS

Subscribe at:

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ALERTS

We are currently at a significant 'decisionpoint' in the markets. Our present trend has

been 'winding down' or contracting and weare looking out for the next wave to startexpanding. While our current Primaryperspective is looking for a wave down, wedo have an alternative that we have beenappraising our readers about for some timenow. We will learn more in the New Year asthe markets set up for what ever the nextmove may be.

Regardless of the next move, what we have

published over the last eight monthsspeaks for itself. We don't pretend to beinfallible, and we expect to get it wrongfrom time to time. That is one of the manyreasons why TRIGGER$ is NOT a TradeAdvisory Service. We are a TechnicalAnalysis Service. Our Updates & Alerts arenot meant to be used to trade off of, butrather, as one of the many sources ofinformation you use to implement your owntrading strategy. Our Triggers are NOTtriggers to trade, they are confirmations ofa shifting trend and are no where neardetailed enough to be considered a 'tradingstrategy'.

Through the use of our analysis however,we hope to improve your own strategies

by giving you useful information andincreasing your knowledge.

The analysis you see on one of our chartsis ultimately the end product of numerousanalysis and various information. Weattempt to give you the bottom line asclearly and straight forward as possible.

If you can appreciate the level of work thatgoes in to our analysis and think it may be

useful for your own market research,consider a subscription. We currentlyhave an Introductory Offer that gives youour monthly publication and the WeeklyUpdates & Alerts for a low monthly cost($19.95).

Still not convinced and want to see more?We have a 2 week free trial for ourUpdates & Alerts, and 6 of our past issuesare Freely available for your inspection.

If you are in the camp of "anybody can dothis", then we ask: why aren't you?

2 WEEKFREE TRIAL2 WEEREE TRIAL

(cont. page. 8)


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SPX DAILY2011 TECHNICAL YEAR IN REVIEW

REPORT CARD SUMMARY

Page 8


JANUARY2012


May Issue: calling arounded top correctivein a bear market, lookingfor chart topping.

A

A

June: calls anotherlift before sell-off

B

B

C

July: warn of sell off, lookfor 50 x100 DMA cross.

C

August: calls more downstill to come - actual lowin Oct just shy of predicted low in Aug.

E

E

F

F

September: looking fordown move, expect liftimmediately afterward

G

G

H

H October: bounced asexpected, give target forend of wave

November: target andpivot as expected, alertbreak of pattern down.

I

I

Nov 27th Alert: warning

given prior to pivot

J

December 6th Update:

warning of coming pivot

K

December 8th: patternand triggers given for

pending down - play outas expected

Conclusions (cont.)

LDec 20th Update:warning of targetpivot close

L

J K

M

December 27th: targetreached, throw over and

pivot warning

M

We will leave you with one last look at TRIGGER$ 2011 Technical Year In Review.Here we have summarized this report for a quick overview and another perspective.

GOOD TRADING ENDGoldenPhi

120101 TA Tech-Review

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