POPULATION AND SUSTAINABILITY1.2 No 21

A COUNTRIES POPULATION PYRAMID CHANGES OVER TIME

Total 2006

Total 2011

40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

44

48

52

56

60

64

68

72

76

80

84

88

Age

Male Female

Total 2016

40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

44

48

52

56

60

64

68

72

76

80

84

88

Age

Male Female

Total 2021

40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

44

48

52

56

60

64

68

72

76

80

84

88

Age

Male Female

Total 2026

40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

44

48

52

56

60

64

68

72

76

80

84

88

Age

Female Male

It takes time for change to happen – changes to the BR now will only impact on a country in 20 years time. It takes 3 generations before a decrease in the number of babies now decreases our overall population.

This relates to the Demographic Transition model

Stage 1 is not shown. How would this be different?

Each of these pyramids poses a problems to the country concerned.

Stage 1 2 3 4 5

Pyramid Shape

Problems

Country example

Stage 1 2 3 4 5

Pyramid Shape

Short Pyramid

Taller pyramid

Pyramid with flat base

Bell Shape

Coffin Shape

Problems High death rate

High Natural Increase

High Natural Increase

Ageing Population

Ageing Population

Country example

None NepalBangladesh

IndiaChina

NZUSA

JapanGermany

In countries with a pyramid shape like India they suffer from having too many young people

Census Year

% population under 25

1971 58.6%

1981 57.8%

1991 55.4%

2001 53.7%

2011 51.4%

What is happening to this statistic over time?

Why?

In countries with a pyramid shape like India they suffer from having too many young people

Census Year

% population under 25

1971 58.6%

1981 57.8%

1991 55.4%

2001 53.7%

2011 51.4%What is happening to this statistic over time?

It is decreasing slowly

Why? The BR is decreasing

What problems do you think this causes?

Problems of a youthful population

Complete the star diagram with effects and consequences as we go through them

This causes many problems!

1. There is not enough food

As a result over 17 million children and babies are malnourished in India!

2. There is a shortage of services like schools

As a result only 65% of the population are literate with 90 million girls unable to read

and write

Few children go to school beyond primary level

3. Houses are crowded

Many people live in slums or are homeless. In Mumbai 40% live in shanties and 2

million live on the streets

4. There are too many dependants and not enough workers

Less people provide resources putting pressure on those who work. In India 44% are dependants.

5. Demographic momentum –lots of children today means more in

the future

It takes 3 generations before it can cause a population decline. Today 38% of the population are under 15

Meanwhile countries with a coffin shape suffer different issues:

Compare the dependency rate of these countries:

India NZ Japan

% working age

43 51 64

% under 15

50 29 13

% over 64

7 20 23

What problems occur in a country with many old people?

Need for smaller houses Less people to work Payment of pensions is issue More need for medical care More old peoples homes Less need for schools

Draw pictures to represent each of these

What solutions can you suggest to the government to prevent many of these issues?

People may have to work longer – until 70 or so

People have to set money aside for their pensions

People need to invest in private health options for better care.

More government money needs to be invested in health care and hospitals.

All countries will face this issue in the future – including India.

In groups of 3-4 discuss and brainstorm:

•What is causing the growth of Dharavi?

•How sustainable you think Dharavi is?

•What are some environmental problems with this slum and similar slums?

•What do you think could be done to help this situation?

• Currently Dharavi is the largest slum in India and it is home to almost 1 million people (approx – hard to get an exact figure)

• It start is located on what was once mangrove swamp and started off as a fishing village. It boomed with the tanning and textiles industries and grew with urbanisation

• Population density = 11 times more than Mumbai (the area around the slum) and most residents are second generation.

• Located in the middle of the financial capital valuable land!

• SO something needs to be done…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8oAQNi22Luk

What would this involve?•Promised residents 220 square feet apartments to replace their homes

•Activists insist on 400 square feet homes because the interconnectivity of the slums, the informal and courtyard spaces that are freely occupied at ground level are not accounted for

•High rise apartments would occupy 65% of the land -

•The other 35% would be leased out for commercial use for profit

PROS CONS

Draw up the table below in your books – Thinking about the Dharavi Redevelopment Scheme what are the pros and cons.

•Focus on sustainability (resources, culture, traditions, environment)