12-הסתברות - נוסחאות
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Transcript of 12-הסתברות - נוסחאות
ze`gqep s — dwihqihhq dwixehpianewx ql zeiexyt`d xtqn •
n! dxeya mipey mixai` n –
(n − 1)! lbrna mipey mixai` n –
n!n1!···nk! i beqn mixai` ni mpyi xy`k dxeya mibeq k-n mixai` n –:minb n •xe q `l xe q mb n
(
nk
)
= n!k!(n−k)! (n)k = n!
(n−k)! dxfgd `ll(k+n−1
k
)
= (k+n−1)!k!(n−1)! nk dxfgd mr
(nk
)
=(n−1k−1
)
+(n−1
k
) lwqt yleyn zgqep •
(a + b)n =∑n
i=0
(
ni
)
aibn−i oeheip ly mepiad •∑k
i=0
(ni
)( mk−i
)
=(n+m
k
)
Vandermonde ly zedfd •zexazqd iagxn:zexazqd ziivwpet zepekz •.A ⊆ Ω rxe`n lkl P (A) ≥ 0 .1.P (Ω) = 1 .2.P (∪iAi) =∑
i P (Ai) f` zebefa mixf zerxe`n A1, A2, . . . m` .3:miixhniq zexazqd iagxn •P (A) = |A|/|Ω| miiwzn (Ω, P ) ixhniq i a zexazqd agxna A rxe`n lklP (A ∩ B) = P (B|A)P (A) :zipzen zexazqd •P (∩n
i=1Ai) = P (A1)P (A2|A1) · · ·P (An| ∩n−1i=1 Ai) :ltkd zgqep •
∪iAi = Ω-y jk zebefa mixf zerxe`n ly dx q A1, A2, . . . m` :dnlyd zexazqdd zgqep •P (B) =
∑
i P (B|Ai) · P (Ai) f`P (C|B) = P (B|C)·P (C)
P (B) :qiia htyn •
P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B) m` miielz izla md B-e A zerxe`n •:miiwzn I ⊆ 1, . . . , n miqw pi` ly dveaw lkl m` miielz izla md A1, . . . , An zerxe`n •P (∩i∈IAi) =
∏
i∈I P (Ai) miixwn mipzyn:m` X i a ixwn dpzyn ly zexazqd ziivwpet `id PX •
x lkl PX(x) ≥ 0 –
∑
x PX(x) = 1 –:m` (X,Y ) i a ixwn xehwe ly zexazqd ziivwpet `id PXY •
y-e x lkl PXY (x, y) ≥ 0 –
∑
x
∑
y PXY (x, y) = 1 –:zeiley zeiebltzd •
PX(x) =∑
y PXY (x, y) –
PY (y) =∑
x PXY (x, y) –
PXY (x, y) = PX(x) · PY (y) miiwzn y-e x lkl m` miielz izla md Y -e X •3
zlgezE(X) =
∑
x x · P (X = x) zlgez •E(f(X)) =
∑
x f(x) · P (X = x) n''n ly divwpet ly zlgez •E(f(X,Y )) =
∑
x
∑
y f(x, y) · P (X = x, Y = y) n''n ipy ly divwpet ly zlgez •:zlgez ly zepekz •
E(C) = C C reaw ly zlgez .1E(
∑ni=1 αiXi) =
∑ni=1 αiE(Xi) zlgezd ly zeix`pil .2
E(X) =∑∞
k=1 P (X ≥ k) f` ,ilily i` n''n X idi •E(XY ) = E(X)E(Y ) m` min`ezn izla mi`xwp Y -e X •zipzen zlgezE(X|A) =
∑
x x · P (X = x|A) :A rxe`n ozpda zipzen zlgez •f` ∪iAi = Ω-y jk zebefa mixf zerxe`n ly dx q A1, A2, . . . m` :dnlyd zlgezd zgqep •E(X) =
∑
i E(X|Ai) · P (Ai) zepeyVar(X) = E((X − µ)2) = E(X2) − E(X)2 zepey •σ(X) =
√
Var(X) owz ziihq •:zepey ly zepekz •.P (X = C) = 1 m''m` Var(X) = 0 ,ok enk .X n''n lkl Var(X) ≥ 0 .1Var(aX + b) = a2Var(X) b-e a mireaw ipy lkl .2Var(
∑ni=1 Xi) =
∑ni=1 Var(Xi) f` zebefa min`ezn izla X1, . . . ,Xn m` .3m`zn m wne ztzeyn zepey
Cov(X,Y ) = E[(X − µX)(Y − µY )] = E(XY ) − E(X)E(Y ) :ztzeyn zepey •:ztzeyn zepey ly zepekz •
Cov(X,Y ) = Cov(Y,X) zeixhniq .1Cov(aX + b, cY + d) = ac · Cov(X,Y ) .2Cov(X,Y + Z) = Cov(X,Y ) + Cov(X,Z) .3Var(
∑
i Xi) =∑
i Var(Xi) +∑
i6=j Cov(Xi,Xj) miixwn mipzyn ly mekq ly zepey •
X = X−µX
σXowezn ixwn dpzyn •
ρ(X,Y ) = Cov(X,Y )σ(X)σ(Y ) = Cov(X, Y ) m`zn m wn •mitivx miixwn mipzyn.x ∈ R lkl P (X = x) = 0 m` sivx `xwi X ixwn dpzyn •
FX(x) = P (X ≤ x) sivx n''n ly zxahvnd zebltzdd ziivwpet •miiwzn x ∈ R lkly jk fX zilily i` diivwpet `id X sivx n''n ly zetitvd ziivwpet •FX(x) =
∫ x−∞ fX(t)dt
E(X) =∫ ∞−∞ tfX(t)dt sivx ixwn dpzyn ly zlgez •
E(g(X)) =∫ ∞−∞ g(t)fX(t)dt sivx ixwn dpzyn ly divwpet ly zlgez •
Var(X) =∫ ∞−∞(t − µ)2fX(t)dt = E(X2) − E(X)2 sivx ixwn dpzyn ly zepey •
FXY (x, y) = P (X ≤ x, Y ≤ y) mitivx n''n ipy ly ztzeynd zebltzdd ziivwpet •FY (y) = FXY (∞, y) ,FX(x) = FXY (x,∞) zeiley zebltzd zeivwpet •FXY (x, y) = FX(x) · FY (y) m''m` miielz izla md Y -e X •fXY (x, y) = fX(x) · fY (y) m''m` miielz izla md Y -e X •4
ihx phq ilnxep ixwn dpzynX = X−µ
σ ∼ N(0, 1) f` X ∼ (µ, σ2) m` •FZ(z) = Φ(z) `f Z ∼ N(0, 1) m` •
Φ(−z) = 1 − Φ(z) •leab ihtyne mipeieeiy i`P (X ≥ a) ≤ E(X)
a miiwzn a > 0 lkl f` ilily i` n''n `ed X m` :aewxn oeieeiy i` •t > 0 lkl f` zeiteq Var(X) zepeye E(X) zlgez lra n''n `ed X m` :ayia'v oeieeiy i` •
P (|X − E(X)| ≥ t) ≤ Var(X)t2
miiwznly ylgd wegdy xn`p .µi = E(Xi) zeiteq zelgez ilra n''n ly dx q X1,X2, . . . idz •limn→∞ P (|Xn − µn| ≤ ε) = 1 miiwzn ε > 0 lkl m` dx qd lr lg mile bd mixtqnd
µn = 1n
∑ni=1 µi-e Xn = 1
n
∑ni=1 Xi xy`k
Var(Xi) = σ2-e E(Xi) = µ miiwzny jk miielz izla n''n ly dx q `id X1,X2, . . . m` •.dx qd lr lg mile bd mixtqnd ly ylgd wegd f` ,i lkllimn→∞ Var(Xn) = 0 :mile bd mixtqnd ly ylgd wegd meiwl witqn i`pz •zepeye µ zlgez ilra ,zebltzd ieeye miielz izla n''n X1,X2, . . . eidi :ifkxnd leabd htyn •
limn→∞ P ( Xn−µσ/
√n≤ x) = Φ(x) miiwzn x ∈ R lkl f` ,zeiteq σ2:dpwqn
Xn ; N(µ, σ2/n) –
∑ni=1 Xi ; N(nµ, nσ2) –
Var(X) E(X) PX(k) mikxr ixwn dpzyn(N−M+1)2−1
12M+N
21
N−M+1 M, . . . ,N X ∼ U(M,N) ig`p(1 − p) p pk(1 − p)1−k 0, 1 X ∼ Ber(p) ilepxanp(1 − p) np
(nk
)
pk(1 − p)n−k 0, . . . , n X ∼ Bin(n, p) inepian(D
N )(N−DN )(N−n
N−1 ) nDN
(Dk
)(N−Dn−k
)
/(N
n
)
0, . . . , n X ∼ HG(n,N,D) ixhne`ibxtid1−pp2
1p (1 − p)k−1p 1, 2, . . . X ∼ G(p) ixhne`ib
λ λ λk
k! e−λ 0, 1, . . . X ∼ Pois(λ) ipeq`et
Var(X) E(X) fX(x) mikxr ixwn dpzyn(b−a)2
12a+b2
1b−a [a, b] X ∼ U [a, b] ig`
1λ2
1λ λe−λx
R≥0 X ∼ Exp(λ) ikixrn
σ2 µ 1√2πσ2
e−(x−µ)2
2σ2 R X ∼ N(µ, σ2) ilnxep1 0 1√
2πe−
x2
2 R Z ∼ N(0, 1) ihx phq ilnxep
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