Slide 1

11 GBTA Washington Update 12 th Annual Legislative Symposium June 24, 2014

Slide 2

2 Capitol Hill Is A (Relatively) Small Neighborhood House Senate Russell Senate Office Building Dirksen Senate Office Building Hart Senate Office Building Supreme Court Library of Congress Jefferson Building Cannon House Office Building Longworth House Office Building Rayburn House Office Building Capitol Visitors Center Entrance Library of Congress Madison Building Getting To The Hill By Car Capitol Hill offers few public parking options; street parking is difficult. The nearest garage is north of the Capitol, by Union Station Many visitors prefer to arrive by taxi, available throughout the city. By Public Transportation For most visitors, the Metro system will prove the best transportation bet. The Red Line (subway) serves the north side of the Capitol, while the Blue and Orange lines offer two stations to the south The Metrobus serves various points around the Hill; visit WMATA.com to see detailed maps By Foot D.C. is a relatively walkable city. However, hot and humid weather may make long walks inadvisable during summer months 2 Sources: Architect of the Capitol, National Journal Research. Capitol South Metro Federal Center Metro Union Station Metro (not on map) NS E W

Slide 3

3 The Geography of The Senate Side Russell Senate Office Building Dirksen Senate Office Building Hart Senate Office Building Senate Chamber First Street NE Constitution Avenue 3 Understanding Office Numbers BuildingRussell (SR)Dirksen (SD)Hart (SH) Numbering SystemAll rooms are three digits, the first digit indicating floor number and a prefix indicating office building ExampleSen. Harry Reids office, SH 522, is located on the fifth floor of the Hart building Sources: Bing Maps, National Journal Research. EW S N Public Non-Handicapped Accessible Entrance Public, Handicapped Accessible Entrance Entrance Member/Staff-Only Until 10 AM The Delaware Ave. door is exclusively Member/Staff/ Accessible all day

Slide 4

4 Public Non-Handicapped Accessible Entrance Public, Handicapped Accessible Entrance The Geography of the House Side First Street SE Independence Avenue S. Capitol Street SE Rayburn House Office Building Longworth House Office Building Cannon House Office Building House Chamber Understanding Office Numbers BuildingRayburn (RHOB)Longworth (LHOB)Cannon (CHOB) Numbering System All rooms are four digits; the first is always 2, the second indicates floor All rooms are four digits; the first is always 1, the second indicates floor All rooms are three digits; the first indicates floor ExampleRep. Kevin McCarthys office, 2421 RHOB, is on the fourth floor of Rayburn Rep. Paul Ryans office, 1233 LHOB, is on the second floor of Longworth Rep. Nancy Pelosis office, 235 CHOB, is on the second floor of Cannon 4 Sources: Bing Maps, National Journal Research. EW S N Capitol South Metro Entrance Member/Staff-Only Until 10 AM

Slide 5

5 Source: Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives; Illinois Rep. Kelly Takes Seat in House, Replacing Jesse Jackson Jr., The Associated Press, April 11, 2013. Congressional Control House Makeup by Party Vacancy Dem Seat Total Seats Democrats: 201 Republicans: 233 201 1 233 Republican Seat Senate Makeup by Party Independent Seat Dem Seat Republican Seat 5345 2 Total Seats Democrats: 53 Republicans: 45 Independents: 2 Vacancy

Slide 6

6 House Republicans Can Be Considered in Six Factions Six Factions of the Republican Party (Based on Republican Votes on Key Legislation* in 2013) Voted YES 5 of 5 times Voted YES 4 of 5 times Voted YES 3 of 5 times Voted NO 3 of 5 times Voted NO 4 of 5 times Voted NO 5 of 5 times Coalition of the Willing The Deciders Coalition of the Unwilling 6 Source: Cook Political Report, 2014.

Slide 7

7 Obamas Second Term Cabinet 7 Top White House Staff Secretary of State Defense Secretary Attorney General CIA Director, Director of National Intelligence National Security Adviser Homeland Security Secretary Treasury Secretary OMB Director Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Commerce Secretary Energy Secretary Health and Human Services Secretary Housing and Urban Development Secretary Interior Secretary Labor Secretary Agriculture Secretary Transportation Secretary Education Secretary EPA Administrator Federal Reserve Board Veterans Affairs Secretary Small Business Administration Administrator

Slide 8

88 Congress Likely to Focus on Must-Pass Bills Before Midterms Analysis Stalemates between the Republican House and Democratic Senate mean that few bills are likely to pass Congress between now and the end of session, except for those measures that both parties see as a must- pass Both parties hope to be in a better position to influence the legislative agenda following the November elections, so both may see incentives to delay Congressional action until then Sources: Billy House, Time is Running Out for Big Bills, National Journal, April 13, 2014; Bob Litan and Loren Duggan, Whats On Tap in Congress in 2014, Bloomberg Government, January 8, 2014. Issues Congress Could Consider in 2014 Issues With Deadlines Issues Without Deadlines MayJuneJuly August (recess) Septembe r October November (midterm s) December Highway Trust Fund: The government account that pays for highway construction is projected to run out before September National Defense Authorization Act: Legislation authorizing Department of Defense operations is seen as a must-pass for Congress; legislators expect to produce a bill by October Unemployment Benefits: The House and Senate remain stymied on the question of extending unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed Export-Import Bank: Congress faces a September 30 th deadline for reauthorizing Annual Appropriations: The Ryan-Murray budget deal set overall spending, but lawmakers may attempt to produce an appropriations bill before the fiscal year Income Inequality : Senate Democrats are expected to propose a number of measures aimed at addressing income inequality, such as raising the minimum wage and a gender-pay bill, but the legislation is not expected to advance in a Republican-controlled House Healthcare Reform: House Republicans have pledged to suggest an alternative to the Affordable Care Act before November elections, but the Senate is almost certain to fail to take up any measure Tax Extenders: Congress may address expired tax breaks Immigration Reform: Movement on a bill is possible

Slide 9

9 Possible gain of 5-10 seats Majority control In the House Odds are that the House will remain stable Possible Republican gain of 5-10 seats In the Senate Odds are better than 50/50 that for a Republican takeover Would be surprised if Republicans didnt net at least 5 seats, and 6 seats is looking increasingly likely Many races will swing together, e.g., if Sen. Landrieu (D-LA) loses, difficult to see Sen. Hagan (D-NC) or Sen. Pryor (D-AR) winning Possible gain of 6+ seats Majority control Overall Outlook Projected Party Composition Shifts 9

Slide 10

10 Competitive Senate Midterm Races Recommendations and detected threats OH WV VA PA NY ME NC SC GA TN KY IN MI WI MN IL LA TX OK ID NV OR WA CA AZ NM CO WY MT ND SD IA UT FL AR MO MS AL NE KS VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD AK HI NC: Sen. Hagan (D) has watched her polling leads vanish; she will face state House Speaker Thom Tillis (R) in the general election AR: Sen. Pryor (D) faces an uphill battle against Republican opponent Tom Cotton in an increasingly conservative state AK: Sen. Begich (D) awaits a challenger from the crowded Alaska primary candidate pool; former Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan (R) has polled well against Begich LA: Sen. Landrieu (D) faces Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) in a race rated a pure toss-up by The Cook Political Report KY: Sen. McConnell (R) is running neck and neck with Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Grimes (D) GA: After Sen. Chambliss (R) announced his retirement, Democrats made this seat a target; rookie Michelle Nunn (D) has raised over $3 million The races identified above are considered competitive by The Cook Political Report based on each jurisdictions past election history, polling results, campaign fundraising, candidate quality, and other factors. MI: No longer a safe Democratic seat; both parties are polling well early Republican Senators Democrat Senators Open Senate Seats 10 MT: In the contest for the seat of retiring Sen. Max Baucus (D), Rep. Steve Daines (R) will face Lt. Gov. John Walsh (D), who has been serving since Baucus left Updated June 16, 2014