11 · 2001 Heinz R. Pagels Human Rights of Scientists Award, New York Academy of Sciences ...
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Transcript of 11 · 2001 Heinz R. Pagels Human Rights of Scientists Award, New York Academy of Sciences ...
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A Remarkable Physicist•
Pomeranchuk
Prize winners 1998
•
According to the decision of the Committee the Pomeranchuk
Prize '1998 is awarded to A.I. Akhiezer
(Kharkov, Ukraine) and
to S. Drell
(Stanford, USA).
•
The Prize is awarded to Sidney Drell
for his outstanding
contributions to the quantum theory of electrodynamic
hadronic
process and for development of the beamstrahlung
theory for future colliders. S.Drell
is the author of the famous
monography
"Relativistic quantum fields", written together
with J.D. Bjorken.
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Lifetime of Accomplishments•
Prize Fellowship of the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, November (1984-1989) •
Ernest Orlando Lawrence Memorial Award (1972) for research in Theoretical Physics•
Univ. of Illinois Alumni Award for Distinguished Service in Engineering (1973); Achievement Award (1988) •
Guggenheim Fellowship, (1961-1962) and (1971-1972) •
Leo Szilard Award for Physics in the Public Interest (1980) presented by the American Physical Society •
Honorary Doctors Degrees: University of Illinois; Tel Aviv University; Weizmann Institute of Science •
1983 Honoree of the Natural Resources Defense Council for work in arms control •
1993 Hilliard Roderick Prize of the AAAS in Science, Arms Control, and International Security •
1994 Woodrow Wilson Award, Princeton Univ. for “Distinguished Achievement in the Nation's Service”•
1994 Co-recipient of the “Ettore
Majorana
-
Erice
-
Science for Peace Prize”•
1995 John P. McGovern Science and Society Medalist of Sigma Xi •
1996 Gian
Carlo Wick Commemorative Medal Award, ICSC–World Laboratory •
1997 Distinguished Associate Award of U.S. Department of Energy •
1998 I. Ya. Pomeranchuk
Prize, Inst. of Theoretical and Experimental Physics, Moscow •
1999-2000 Linus
Pauling Medal of Stanford University •
2000 University of California Presidential Medal •
2000 Among 10 scientists honored as "Founder of national reconnaissance as a space discipline" by US NRO •
2000 The Enrico
Fermi Award, presented on behalf of the President of the US by the Secretary of Energy, for a lifetime of achievement in the field of nuclear energy
•
2001 National Intelligence Distinguished Service Medal, presented by the Director of Central Intelligence •
2001 William O. Baker Award for contributions to national security, particularly in the field of foreign intelligence•
2001 Heinz R. Pagels
Human Rights of Scientists Award, New York Academy of Sciences •
2005 11th annual Heinz Award for Public Policy, Washington, D.C.
44© Carnegie Endowment, 2009
Sid’s World
55© Carnegie Endowment, 2009
Why Talk About Nuclear Energy
•
A nuclear power reactor “race”
(pace, scope, dynamics) may be getting underway►
•
For now there is much hype but real action may soon follow ►
•
While Europe is the role model, the driver may not even be the “developed”
world ►
•
Some established players but many new players on the bloc ►
66© Carnegie Endowment, 2009
Multiple MotivationsThe nuclear zeal is driven by:•
Growing global energy demand
•
Scarcity & physical limits on available alternatives ►•
Cost of alternatives and better competitiveness
•
Substitution potential to allow oil & gas exports•
Energy security concerns (e.g. Russia-Ukraine)
•
Nuclear realities (ageing reactor fleet)
►•
Environmental benefits & political commitments
•
Copycat syndrome•
Partial ignorance of nuclear realities and history
•
Prestige and pre-emption•
Nuclear hedging or outright pursuit of weapons
77© Carnegie Endowment, 2009
Enhancing the Nuclear Appeal
•
Proven track record as base loader generators•
Much improved reactor operational track record
•
More robust & experienced utilities (consolidation)•
Prospects for a predictable, simplified, and harmonized regulatory process (e.g. COL)
•
Better and bigger reactor designs•
Government subsidies for the first new batch
•
Low carbon emissions governmental incentives (?)•
Standardization potential
•
Abundant fuel supplies (uranium & spent fuel)•
Superior Non GHG base loader (over geothermal, biomass) whereas wind and sun are problematic
88© Carnegie Endowment, 2009
But…•
Industrial bottlenecks (nuclear food chain) are serious
•
Short term human resources demands insatiable •
Reliable construction cost calculations are tough
•
Utilities lack efficient & affordablmechanisms
for funding new construction, especially nuclear
•
Governments’
role in nuclear power uncertain•
Carbon emission subsidies are under defined
•
Sophisticated waste disposal challenge lingers on•
NIMBY attitude affects selection of new sites
•
Prospects for trouble abroad are significant•
Vicious nuclear global politics is unfolding
99© Carnegie Endowment, 2009
The United States Scene•
The US used to be at the nuclear forefront (weapons, propulsion, power) ►
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Has fallen behind in nuclear science, engineering, and industry (TVA & TMI effects combined)
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Is still haunted by the nuclear legacy•
Remains ambivalent about encouraging a comeback (waste, safety, security, finance)
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Ambitious plans face an uncertain future•
The nuclear energy policy has been problematic
•
Overall energy policy choices will prove critical in shaping its nuclear future
1010© Carnegie Endowment, 2009
Reconciling Acute Dilemmas•
Proliferation and disarmament
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Safety and security •
Handling nuclear waste (spent fuel rods)
•
Disseminating nuclear culture & knowledge•
Financing new build
•
Harmonizing regulatory & liability standards•
Misfit between economic viability and grid capacity/ local energy demand
•
Global nuclear politics
1111© Carnegie Endowment, 2009
Why Time is of the Essence•
Impending environmental and energy crisis ►
•
Long lead times for significant nuclear response ►•
The present nuclear industry’s posture is unsustainable
•
Planned nuclear phase-outs will escalate challenges•
Unbridled nuclear competition runs risks
•
Nuclear disarmament process creates additional risks but also opens up considerable opportunities
The Drell
Legacy: pursue an integrated policy, national and international in scope, marrying science, technology, economics, security, and politics
1212© Carnegie Endowment, 2007
1313© Carnegie Endowment, 2009
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2020
Gas Combined Cycle (GCC)
Coal
EPR – Flamanville 3
Cost Escalation of Energy Production in Europe
© Carnegie Endowment, 2009
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Wor
ldP
rimar
yE
nerg
yS
ourc
es (G
toe)
6
6,5
7
7,5
8
8,5
9
Wor
ldP
opul
atio
n (B
illion
s)
Other RenewablesBiomassNuclearGasOilCoalPopulation
Source IEA : Energy to 2050 -Scenarios for a Sustainable Future
Many
forcasts
see
a significant increase in the nuclear share of the energy production mix by 2050
© Carnegie Endowment, 2009
Projected Evolution of Energy Mix
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Installed nuclear power might increase by a factor of 3-5 by 2050 ?
© Carnegie Endowment, 2009
Increasing Global Demand for Nuclear Energy
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More than 50 countries considering to launch nuclear power programs
Operating ConsideringOperating
© Carnegie Endowment, 2009
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Spare Slides
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UAE•
Saudi Arabia
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Yemen•
Egypt
•
Jordan•
Morocco
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Tunisia•
Libya
•
Algeria
•
Italy•
Turkey
•
Poland/Latvia/Lithuania•
Kazakhstan
•
Vietnam•
Indonesia
•
Philippines•
Thailand
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Ghana•
Chile
New Nuclear Power Aspirants
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Need to emphasize on: Energy Planning before considering nuclear programmeSound nuclear infrastructure for safe, reliable & efficient useSelf-assessment of infrastructure status to identify gaps and areas needing support from outside
possibly followed by IAEA review missionFor wise and effective investment and international
confidence buildingUse of relevant international guidance documents & servicesParty to various international instrumentsRegional approach for efficiency Important role by the Government Training capabilities
New Nuclear Power Aspirants
© Carnegie Endowment, 2009
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Energy security
High safety level and steady improvements
Economic competitiveness~ 28 vs 36 €/MWh (gas, coal)[DGEMP-DIDEME Study 2003]
Green-house gas emissions from electricity
Renewable energies
Coal Oil Natural gas
Nuclear
400
300
20 0
100
0
gCeq /kWh
Dispersion due to various technologies
Quasi no CO2 emission with nuclear
Escalating price of oil
© Carnegie Endowment, 2009
Assets of Nuclear Power
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