1.1% 1.7% Peru / US$ 3.08 -0.1% 3.4% Brazil / US$ 2 · Formal employment grew 1.7% in urban Peru...

14
February 18 th 2015 Credicorp Capital Research Andean Daily Report CREDICORP CAPITAL RESEARCH Chile: +(562) 2450 1600 Colombia: +(571) 339 4400 Ext. 1505 Peru: +(511) 205 9190 Ext. 36070 CHILE Corpbanca 4Q14 Results: EPS surprise explained by top line growth and deferred tax asset adjustment in Colombia COLOMBIA Industrial production increased 2.1% y/y in Dec-14 while retail sales advanced 9.6% y/y BanRep’s expectations survey Feb-15 Pacific Rubiales: Senior executive sold 20,100 shares of the company Terpel placed COP 400 bn in ordinary bonds at the local market Celsia obtains the environmental permits for the hydroelectric project Porvenir II Bancolombia 4Q14 Results: EPS in line; depreciation reflected on mixed surprises, with opex ex-goodwill amortization above estimates PERU The 1,200 MW auction will be in November Formal employment grew 1.7% in urban Peru (2014) Alicorp 4Q14 results - Bottom line plunged due derivatives losses and FX losses Minsur 4Q14 results Accounting change to equity method for subsidiaries and low tin prices Volcan 4Q14 results Silver price decline deepened the hit This report is property of IM Trust S.A. and/or Credicorp Capital Colombia S.A Sociedad Comisionista de Bolsa and/or Credicorp Capital S.A.A. and/or its subsidiaries (hereinafter jointly called “Credicorp Capital”), therefore, no part of this the material or its content, nor any copy of it may altered in any way, transmitted, copied or distributed to any third party without prior and express written consent of Credicorp Capital. In making this report, Credicorp Capital has relied on information from public sources. Credicorp Capital has not verified the truthfulness, completeness or accuracy of the information accessed, nor has audit the information in any way. Accordingly, this report does not constitute a statement, assertion or guarantee (express or implied) as to the truth, accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein or any other written or oral information furnished to any person and/or their advisors. Local USD Local USD S&P MILA 40 616 -0.5% -0.5% -3.3% -3.3% S&P INDEX 2,100 0.2% 0.2% 2.0% 2.0% Chile 3,984 -0.3% 0.1% 3.4% 1.3% Colombia 1,397 -0.1% -1.2% -7.7% -9.1% Peru 13,768 -2.0% -1.8% -6.9% -10.0% Mexico 43,252 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% -0.7% Brazil 50,636 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% -5.4% Equities Latam 2,638 0.1% 0.1% -3.3% -3.3% CLP / US$ 620 UF / CLP 24,536 Peru / US$ 3.08 Colombia / US$ 2,416 Brazil / US$ 2.83 CLP / Euro 708 Euro / US$ 1.14 Local USD Local USD Copper (US$/lb) 258 Gold (US$/oz) 1,209 Silv er (US$/oz) 16.4 Brent (US$/bbl) 61 Pulp (US$/MT) 900 WTI (US$/bbl) 54 -0.3% -3.4% 1.4% -100.0% -1.5% 2.0% -5.3% 5.0% 2.3% 9.8% Commodities Last D/D % YTD% -1.0% -8.6% 0.0% 7.1% 0.3% -3.4% 0.5% -5.7% 0.0% -0.4% -0.1% 3.4% 1.1% 1.7% Fx Rates Last D/D % YTD% -0.3% 2.1% Index Last D/D % YTD% P/BV 2 0 14 E 2 0 15 E 2 0 14 E 2 0 15 E LTM Chile 20.8x 17.4x 9.1x 8.5x 1.7x Colombia 19.1x 22.4x 8.1x 8.4x 1.4x Peru 14.8x 13.5x 7.8x 7.1x 1.3x Valuations Country P / E EV / EBITDA

Transcript of 1.1% 1.7% Peru / US$ 3.08 -0.1% 3.4% Brazil / US$ 2 · Formal employment grew 1.7% in urban Peru...

February 18th 2015

Credicorp Capital Research

Andean Daily Report

CREDICORP CAPITAL RESEARCH

Chile: +(562) 2450 1600

Colombia: +(571) 339 4400 Ext. 1505

Peru: +(511) 205 9190 Ext. 36070

CHILE

Corpbanca 4Q14 Results: EPS surprise explained by top line growth

and deferred tax asset adjustment in Colombia

COLOMBIA

Industrial production increased 2.1% y/y in Dec-14 while retail sales

advanced 9.6% y/y

BanRep’s expectations survey Feb-15

Pacific Rubiales: Senior executive sold 20,100 shares of the company

Terpel placed COP 400 bn in ordinary bonds at the local market

Celsia obtains the environmental permits for the hydroelectric project

Porvenir II

Bancolombia 4Q14 Results: EPS in line; depreciation reflected on

mixed surprises, with opex ex-goodwill amortization above estimates

PERU

The 1,200 MW auction will be in November

Formal employment grew 1.7% in urban Peru (2014)

Alicorp 4Q14 results - Bottom line plunged due derivatives losses and

FX losses

Minsur 4Q14 results – Accounting change to equity method for

subsidiaries and low tin prices

Volcan 4Q14 results – Silver price decline deepened the hit

This report is property of IM Trust S.A. and/or Credicorp Capital Colombia S.A Sociedad Comisionista de Bolsa and/or Credicorp Capital S.A.A. and/or its subsidiaries (hereinafter jointly called “Credicorp Capital”), therefore, no part of this the material or its content, nor any copy of it may altered in any way, transmitted, copied or distributed to any third party without prior and express written consent of Credicorp Capital. In making this report, Credicorp Capital has relied on information from public sources. Credicorp Capital has not verified the truthfulness, completeness or accuracy of the information accessed, nor has audit the information in any way. Accordingly, this report does not constitute a statement, assertion or guarantee (express or implied) as to the truth, accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein or any other written or oral information furnished to any person and/or their advisors.

Local USD Local USD

S&P MILA 40 616 -0.5% -0.5% -3.3% -3.3%

S&P INDEX 2,100 0.2% 0.2% 2.0% 2.0%

Chile 3,984 -0.3% 0.1% 3.4% 1.3%

Colombia 1,397 -0.1% -1.2% -7.7% -9.1%

Peru 13,768 -2.0% -1.8% -6.9% -10.0%

Mex ico 43,252 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% -0.7%

Brazil 50,636 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% -5.4%

Equities Latam 2,638 0.1% 0.1% -3.3% -3.3%

CLP / US$ 620

UF / CLP 24,536

Peru / US$ 3.08

Colombia / US$ 2,416

Brazil / US$ 2.83

CLP / Euro 708

Euro / US$ 1.14

Local USD Local USD

Copper (US$/lb) 258

Gold (US$/oz) 1,209

Silv er (US$/oz) 16.4

Brent (US$/bbl) 61

Pulp (US$/MT) 900

WTI (US$/bbl) 54

-0.3% -3.4%

1.4% -100.0%

-1.5% 2.0%

-5.3% 5.0%

2.3% 9.8%

Commodities LastD/D % YTD%

-1.0% -8.6%

0.0% 7.1%

0.3% -3.4%

0.5% -5.7%

0.0% -0.4%

-0.1% 3.4%

1.1% 1.7%

Fx Rates LastD/D % YTD%

-0.3% 2.1%

Index LastD/D % YTD%

P/BV

2 0 14 E 2 0 15 E 2 0 14 E 2 0 15 E LTM

Chile 20.8x 17.4x 9.1x 8.5x 1.7x

Colombia 19.1x 22.4x 8.1x 8.4x 1.4x

Peru 14.8x 13.5x 7.8x 7.1x 1.3x

Va lua tions

CountryP / E EV / EBITDA

2

Chile

Company News

Corpbanca 4Q14 Results: EPS surprise explained by top line growth and deferred tax

asset adjustment in Colombia

(CORPBANCA: BUY; T.P.: CLP 8.80)

Corpbanca recorded profits of CLP 66 bn in 4Q14, equivalent to a 22% y/y growth. As a result,

ROAE in 2014 reached 15.9%. Quarterly results came 41% above our estimates. The top line

beat our forecast by 8% mostly due to trading gains that include tax hedging. On the other hand,

opex was in line and the Colombian operation once again showed a satisfactory cost-to-income

ratio of 53%. On the negative side, provision expenses came 19% above our estimate as a result

of depreciation. The surprise on profits was bolstered by tax expenses in Colombia, following a

deferred tax asset adjustment due to an additional goodwill accounted from the Helm Bank

transaction. As a consequence, the positive surprise in profits lowers to a still attractive 18% on a

pre-tax basis; hence, we conclude that results were positive.

Corpbanca Y/Y A/E

(CLP bn) (%) (%)

Rev enues 247 232 229 6% 8% P/E 11.4x 13.5x

Prov . Ex p. -43 -26 -36 68% 19% P/BV 1.8x 1.3x

Opex -125 -118 -126 6% -1% ROAE 15.9% 12.8%

Net Income 66 54 47 22% 41% Div . Yield 3.4% 2.6%

ROAE 17.7% 15.7% 12.0%

ROAA 1.3% 1.2% 0.9%

2015E4Q14A 4Q13A 4Q14E Corpbanca 2014A

3

Colombia

Economics and Politics

Industrial production increased 2.1% y/y in Dec-14 while retail sales advanced 9.6% y/y

22 out of 44 subsectors from the manufacturing sample registered an advance in production, with

‘motor vehicles’ industries leading (26.9% y/y), along with ‘meat and fish’ (14.4%), ‘electrical

machinery’ (22.8%), and ‘chemicals’ (6.3%). The figure was quite positive as the market expected

an advance of just 0.1% y/y, according to Bloomberg’s survey. Thus, manufacturing production

closed 2014 with an overall increase of 1.3% y/y.

On the other hand, retail sales went up amid strong rates of growth for durable goods sales. Thus,

vehicles and motorcycles sales increased 25.8% y/y, ‘hardware, glass and paint’ grew 16.4% y/y

and home appliances and furniture did it by 12.6%. Likewise, 2014’s retail sales reached a 7.7%

y/y growth, closing a strong year of private consumption and great dynamics in the domestic

demand.

We expect private consumption to decelerate during 2015, which is consistent with the recent

drop on consumer confidence index during Jan-15. On the other hand, we estimate a recovery of

the industrial production in 2015 supported by more competitive COP levels and the expected

pick up in main trading partners’ economic activity.

BanRep’s expectations survey Feb-15

According to Feb-15 BanRep’s expectations survey, market consensus expects the inflation rate

to stand at 3.35% by year-end, this implies an increase of 4bp against the previous estimate.

Thus, for Feb-15, the market expects 0.64% m/m inflation, in line with our estimate (0.66%). As

for monetary policy, 100% of respondents expect an unchanged repo rate (4.50%) for this month.

In turn, the market consensus expects an unaltered rate for all of 2015.

Company News

Pacific Rubiales: Senior executive sold 20,100 shares of the company

(PREC: UNDERPERFORM, T.P.: COP 11,400)

Pacific Rubiales announced that José Francisco Arata, senior executive of the company, sold

20,100 shares on February 12th and 13th, 2015.

Terpel placed COP 400 bn in ordinary bonds at the local market

(TERPEL: HOLD; T.P.: COP 20,000)

Terpel carried out a successful issuance of ordinary bonds at the local market, with a bid-to-cover

ratio of 1.6x. The company placed 2-year fixed rate bonds at 5.67%, while the 3-year and 5-year

bonds (CPI-linked) were placed at CPI+2.44% and CPI+2.9%, respectively.

4

Celsia obtains the environmental permits for the hydroelectric project Porvenir II

(CELSIA: HOLD; T.P.: COP 7,020)

Celsia announced that it obtained the environmental permits required for the hydroelectric project

Porvenir II (subject to a prudential period of time to receive comments on the terms of the

permits). It is worth noting that the ownership of the project is in hands of the local firm

Producción de Energía S.A.S. E.S.P. (“Proesas”); Celsia signed a purchase agreement with this

company to acquire the project, conditioned to the procurement of the environmental permits.

Currently, the deal is expecting the permits to be in force, which is the contractual condition to

close the purchase agreement.

The environmental permits come with a delay of more than one year compared to the initial

schedule, and thus, it has caused delays in the start in operation of the project, which was

expected for December 2018. As a consequence, the project lost its rights to the reliability charge

and Celsia had to pay a guarantee of COP 34,626 mn in Jan-15 (the provision of the guarantee

was accounted for in 3Q14 results). On the other hand, in Jun-14 Celsia renegotiated the

purchase agreement with Proesas in order to recognize the new conditions of the project,

adjusting the cost of acquisition of the project (the details of the agreement are not public).

According to an interview in local media with Juan Guillermo Londoño, CEO of Celsia, the

company maintains its interest on the development of the project and is analyzing the terms of the

environmental permits to advance in the construction of the project.

Bancolombia 4Q14 Results: EPS in line; depreciation reflected on mixed surprises, with

opex ex-goodwill amortization above estimates

(PFBCOLO: HOLD; T.P.: COP 31,000)

Bancolombia recorded profits of COP 488 bn equivalent to COP 507/share EPS and a flattish y/y

growth. EPS came 2.5% above our estimate, roughly in line with our estimates. Slight positive

surprises in top line and provision expenses were offset by higher opex. The strong depreciation

of the COP reflected on mixed surprises. On one hand, NII came 5.5% above our estimate as the

net loan book recorded a surprising 11% q/q growth, while other operating income came well

above our forecast partly due to FX trading gains. On the other hand, the translation of

Banistmo’s opex to COP reflected on a negative surprise in opex (ex-goodwill amortization),

which came 12% above our forecast, high considering that we did incorporate depreciation and

seasonality in our opex estimate for the quarter. Finally, goodwill amortization surprised as the

bank reduced its amortization period from 20 to 10 years; this change in accounting policy should

not alter results going forward as under IFRS goodwill is not amortized.

Bancolombia Y/Y A/E

(COP bn) (%) (%)

Rev enues 2,627 2,131 2,455 23% 7% P/E 13.6x 11.1x

Prov . Ex p. -378 -273 -399 39% -5% P/BV 1.5x 1.4x

Opex -1,743 -1,246 -1,399 40% 25% ROAE 12.8% 13.4%

Net Income 488 489 476 0% 3% Div . Yield 2.9% 3.1%

ROAE 11.9% 16.0% 11.7%

ROAA 1.4% 1.6% 1.4%

4Q14A 4Q13A 4Q14EBancolomb

ia2014A 2015E

5

Peru

Economics and Politics

The 1,200 MW auction will be in November

Pro Inversión will award 1,200 MW in hydroelectric power plant projects in November. It was

indicated that these projects total USD 3,000 mn and that interested bidders can submit their

request until September 18th. The tenders of these hydroelectric power plant projects were

originally expected to be launched in early 2015. After having been postponed to 2016, this

announcement brings the tender closer to 2015.

Formal employment grew 1.7% in urban Peru (2014)

According to a survey conducted by the Ministry of Labour, formal employment grew 1.7% in

private enterprises of ten or more workers in Peru’s urban sector. The cities that showed a

highest growth in formal employment were Sullana in Piura (12%) and Abancay in Apurimac

(8.9%) –an export oriented department in the North and a booming mining department in the

South, respectively– and the ones with the lowest growth were Chimbote in Ancash (-12.2%) and

Chachapoyas in Amazonas (-8.4%) –the former a hard hit fishing town, the latter an isolated

region close to Cajamarca–. The largest growth was seen in the sectors of services, mining and

oil and gas, and transportation with 3.9%, 3.0% and 1.9%, respectively. Regarding the employed

economically active population, the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics informed that

the youth segment was the only one that showed a decrease in 2014 (-0.7% in the age range of

14 to 24 years old).

Company News

Alicorp 4Q14 results - Bottom line plunged due derivatives losses and FX losses

Mark-to-market changes of commodities and financial hedging derivatives generated losses for -

PEN228.2mn and FX losses amounted to -PEN35.3. Also financial expenses were -PEN75.6mn.

These effects drove the miss earnings.

ALICORP Y/Y A/E

(PENmn) (%) (%)

Rev enues 1,688 1,601 1,722 5.4% -2.0% P/E 319.8x 18.3x

EBIT 155 161 183 -3.6% -15.1% EV/EBITDA 12.7x 11.8x

EBITDA 182 188 210 -3.3% -13.3% P/BV 2.8x 2.5x

Net Income -169 185 102 nm nm Div . Yield 1.7% 0.1%

EBITDA Mg. 10.8% 11.8% 12.2%

Net Mg. -10.0% 11.5% 5.9%

ALICORPLTM Dec.

20142015E4Q14A 4Q13A 4Q14E

6

Minsur 4Q14 results – Accounting change to equity method for subsidiaries and low tin

prices

(MINSUR: BUY; T.P.: PEN 2.20)

Minsur faced lower tin prices that decreased its EBITDA. On top of that, it changed its accounting

method to consider its subsidiaries by the equity method in the individual numbers (those we

follow) so as to match the assets value in both consolidated and individual numbers. Without the

ensuing non-cash charge, net income would have been USD17.9mn (-66% y/y).

Volcan 4Q14 results – Silver price decline deepened the hit

(VOLCAN: BUY; T.P.: PEN1.10)

Results came below our expectations dragged down by a stronger impact of low silver prices and

higher depreciation. Gross margin halved to 12% because of higher depreciation (+67% y/y) from

new units and concluded expansions, lower silver price magnified impact from sales adjustments

and lower margin from the concentrates trading business (to -3% from 11%).

VOLCAN Y/Y A/E

(USDmn) (%) (%)

Rev enues 248 287 267 -13.8% -7.3% P/E 22.6x 8.0x

EBIT 9 40 17 -78.5% -49.2% EV/EBITDA 6.5x 7.2x

EBITDA 56 70 64 -19.5% -12.0% P/BV 1.1x 0.9x

Net Income 10 24 15 -56.4% -31.0% Div . Yield 2.70% 1.00%

EBITDA Mg. 22.7% 24.4% 24.0%

Net Mg. 4.2% 8.3% 5.6%

VOLCAN 2014 2015E4Q14A 4Q13A 4Q14E

MINSUR Y/Y A/E

(USDmn) (%) (%)

Rev enues 168 203 160 -17.2% 5.1% P/E 17.0x 7.6x

EBIT 49 96 60 -49.1% -18.8% EV/EBITDA 4.6x 4.7x

EBITDA 68 112 74 -38.8% -7.6% P/BV 0.6x 0.5x

Net Income 1 23 40 -94.9% -97.1% Div . Yield 1.60% 2.30%

EBITDA Mg. 40.7% 55.0% 46.3%

Net Mg. 0.7% 11.3% 25.0%

4Q14A 4Q13A 4Q14E 2014 2015EMINSUR

7

Top Winners & Losers

Volume Leaders

Trading Information

Traded Volume

Sources: Bloomberg & Credicorp Capital

Country Vol. (USDmn) Best sector Worst Sector

Chile 65.1 Const. & H.B. / +1.40% Industrial / -1.41%

Colombia 57.1 - -

Peru 15.0 - Agribusiness / -2.92%

USD Th. Clp. % USD Th. Cop. % USD Th. Pen %

CAP $ 8,858.3 1.66% Ecopetrol $ 17,252.8 0.46% Milpo $ 9,310 -3.33%

Enersis $ 7,091.0 0.14% EEB $ 12,685.4 0.31% Rio Alto Mining $ 746 -1.00%

Banco de Chile $ 6,429.5 0.25% Bancolombia $ 8,583.0 -0.75% Volcan-B $ 663 -3.17%

Chile PeruColombia

Top Winners CLP Clp.% Top Winners COP Cop.% Top Winners PEN / USD %

Ripley $ 297 3.42% Pacific Rubiales $ 8,590 5.79% Relapasa $ 0.20 5.26%

Antarchile $ 7,800 3.31% PFGrupsura $ 35,380 1.09% Credicorp $ 152.40 0.93%

Besalco $ 353 3.07% Bogota $ 63,520 0.83% IFS $ 29.30 0.83%

Top Losers CLP Clp.% Top Losers COP Cop.% Top Losers PEN / USD %

Quiñenco $ 1,315.0 -2.59% Canacol $ 6,100 -1.61% Minera IRL $ 0.05 -16.67%

Aguas-A $ 370.9 -2.20% PFCemargos $ 9,100 -1.09% Minsur $ 1.58 -7.06%

Falabella $ 4,366.0 -1.98% Bancolombia $ 26,480 -0.75% BVN $ 10.50 -6.25%

Chile PeruColombia

8

Economic Calendar

Sources: Bloomberg & Credicorp Capital

Date Time Indicator / Event Period Consensus

Credicorp

CapitalActual Previous

5-Feb 8:30 Economic Activity Index YoY Dec-14 2.0% 2.1% 2.9% 1.3%

6-Feb 8:00 CPI MoM Jan-15 -0.3% -0.3% 0.1% -0.4%

12-Feb 18:00 Overnight Rate Target Feb-15 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%

Date Time Indicator / Event Period Consensus

Credicorp

CapitalActual Previous

17-Feb 18:00 Retail Sales YoY Dec-14 9.5% - 9.6% 8.4%

17-Feb 18:00 Industrial Production YoY Dec-14 -0.1% - 2.1% -0.9%

20-Feb Overnight Lending Rate Feb-15 4.50% - - 4.50%

Date Time Indicator / Event Period Consensus

Credicorp

CapitalActual Previous

12-Feb 20:00 Reference Rate Feb-15 3.25% - 3.25% 3.25%

16-Feb Unemployment Rate Jan-15 6.1% - 6.4% 5.6%

16-Feb Economic Activity YoY Dec-14 0.5% - 0.5% 0.3%

Chile

Colombia

Peru

9

Important Disclosures This research report was prepared by CredicorpCapital Peru S.A and/or Credicorp Capital Colombia Sociedad Comisionista de

Bolsa and/or IM Trust S.A. Corredores de Bolsa, companies authorized to engage in securities activities in Peru, Colombia and

Chile, respectively and indirect subsidiaries of Credicorp Capital Ltd. (jointly referred to as “Credicorp Capital”). None of the

companies jointly referred to as Credicorp Capital are registered as broker-dealers in the United States and, therefore, they are not

subject to U.S. rules regarding the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. This research report

is provided for distribution only to “major U.S. institutional investors” in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule

15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”).

Any U.S. recipient of this research report wishing to effect any transaction to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments

based on the information provided in this research report can do so only through Credicorp Securities Inc., a registered broker-

dealer in the United States. Under no circumstances may a U.S. recipient of this research report effect any transaction to buy or sell

securities or related financial instruments directly through Credicorp Capital.

Credicorp Securities Inc. accepts responsibility for the contents of this research report, subject to the terms set out below, to the

extent that it is delivered to a U.S. person other than a major U.S. institutional investor.

Any analyst whose name appears on this research report is not registered or qualified as a research analyst with the Financial

Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) and is not a registered representative of Credicorp Securities Inc. and, therefore, is not

subject to applicable restrictions under FINRA Rules on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading

securities held by a research analyst account.

A.Analyst Disclosures

The functional job title of the person(s) responsible for the recommendations contained in this report is Equity Research Analyst

unless otherwise stated on the cover.

Regulation AC - Analyst Certification: Each Equity Research Analyst listed on the front-page of this report is principally

responsible for the preparation and content of all or any identified portion of this research report and hereby certifies thatwith

respect to each issuer or security or any identified portion of the report with respect to an issuer or security that the Equity Research

Analyst covers in this research report, all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about

those issuer(s) or securities. Each Equity Research Analyst also certifies that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be,

directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) expressed by that Equity Research Analyst in this research

report.

Each Equity Research Analyst certifies that he or she is acting independently and impartially from the referenced

company/shareholders, directors and is not affected by any current or potential conflict of interest that may arise from any of the

companies’ activities.

Analyst Compensation: The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of the content of this research report

attest(s) that no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations that

he or she expressed in the research report.

Registration of non-US Analysts: Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed on the front of this report are employees of

one of the companies jointly referred as Credicorp Capital, which are non-US affiliates of Credicorp Securities Inc., a SEC registered

and FINRA member broker-dealer. Equity Research Analysts employed by the companies jointly referred as Credicorp Capital, are

not registered/ qualified as research analysts under FINRA/NYSE rules, are not registered representatives of CredicorpSecurities

Inc. and may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public

appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Please refer to www.credicorpcapital.com for further

information relating to research and conflict of interest management.

10

B.Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest

Credicorp Securities Inc. or its affiliates ‘beneficially own’, as determined in accordance with Section 13(d) of the Exchange Act, 1%

or more of the equity securities of the company Alicorp.

Credicorp Securities Inc., its affiliates and/or their respective officers, directors or employees may have interests, or long or short

positions, and may at any time make purchases or sales as a principal or agent of the securities referred to herein.

C.Compensation and Investment Banking Activities

Credicorp Securities Inc. or any of its affiliates have managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for one or more of the

companies referenced in this report in the past 12 months. Credicorp Securities Inc. or its affiliates have received compensation for

investment banking services from the companies Corpbanca, Celsia, Bancolombia and Alicorp in the past 12 months. Credicorp

Securities Inc. or its affiliates do expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from one or more

of the mentioned companies in the next 3 months.

D. Rating System

Stock ratings are based on the analyst’s expectation of the stock’s total return during the twelve to eighteen months following

assignment of the rating. This view is based on the target price, set as described below, and on the analyst’s opinion, general market

conditions and economic developments.

Buy: Expected returns of 5 percentage points or more in excess over the expected return of the local index, over the next 12-18

months.

Hold: Expected returns of +/- 5% in excess/below the expected return of the local index over the next 12-18 months.

Underperform: Expected to underperform the local index by 5 percentage points or more over the next 12-18 months.

Under Review / Restricted: Company coverage is under review or restricted.

IPSA index is the selective equity index calculated by the Bolsa de Comercio de Santiago.

COLCAP index is the selective equity index calculated by the Bolsa de Valores de Colombia.

IGBVL index is the selective equity index calculated by the Bolsa de Valores de Lima..

In making a recommendation, the analyst compares the target price with the actual share price, and compares the resulting

expected return for the IPSA indes, as estimated by IM Trust Corredores de Bolsa S.A., and then makes a recommendation derived

from the difference in upside potential between the shares and the index.

E. Distribution of Ratings

Rating

N° of Companies covered with this

rating

Companies covered with this rating

(% )

Buy 35 42%

Hold 37 45%

Underperform 9 11%

Under Review /

Restricted2 2%

Total 83 100%

11

F.Price Target

Unless otherwise stated in the text of this report, target prices in this report are based on either a discounted cash flow valuation or

comparison of valuation ratios with companies seen by the analyst as comparable or a combination of the two methods. The result of

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method is used there is a significant risk that the target price will not be achieved within the expected timeframe. Risk factors include

unforeseen changes in competitive pressures or in the level of demand for the company’s products. Such demand variations may

result from changes in technology, in the overall level of economic activity or, in some cases, in fashion. Valuations may also be

affected by changes in taxation, in exchange rates and, in certain industries, in regulations. Investment in overseas markets and

instruments such as ADRs can result in increased risk from factors such as exchange rates, exchange controls, taxation, and

political and social conditions. This discussion of valuation methods and risk factors is not comprehensive – further information is

available upon request.

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12

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13

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14

Heinrich Lessau Hugo Horta

Director of Research Director of Sales & Trading

[email protected] [email protected]

CHILE COLOMBIA PERU Hernán Arellano

Head of Equities

Francisca Manuschevich César Cuervo Héctor Collantes [email protected]

Head of Equity Research Head of North Andean Equity Research Head of Equity Research

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

# (562) 2446 1798 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1012 # (511) 205 9190 Ext 33052 Javier Günther Marilyn Macdonald Cristián Castillo

International Equity Sales International Equity Sales International Sales Trader

Christopher DiSalvatore Jaime Pedroza Fernando Pereda [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Associate: Retail & Financials Senior Analyst: Utilities Senior Analyst: Cement & Utilities # (562) 2450 1695 # (4477) 7151 5855 # (786) 999 1633

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

# (562) 2446 1724 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1025 # (511) 205 9190 Ext 37856 CHILE PERU COLOMBIA

Arturo Prado Juan C. Domínguez Iván Bogarín René Ossa Rodrigo Zavala Juan A. Jiménez

Senior Analyst: Natural Resources Senior Analyst: Banks Senior Analyst: Retail & Others International Equity Sales Head of Equity - Peru Head of International Equity Sales

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

# (562) 2450 1688 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1026 # (511) 416 3333 Ext 33055 # (562) 2651 9324 # (511) 313 2918 Ext 36044 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1701

Andrés Ossa Sebastián Gallego Tamara Vasquez Christian Munchmeyer Ursula Mitterhofer Santiago Castro

Analyst: Utilities, Telecom & I.T. Analyst: Oil & Gas Research Assistant International Sales & Trading Sales & Trading International Sales & Trading

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

# (562) 2651 9332 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1594 # (511) 416 3333 Ext 37946 # (562) 2450 1613 # (511) 313 2918 Ext 32922 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1344

Tomás Sanhueza Carlos E. Rodriguez

Analyst: Food & Beverages, Healthcare Analyst: GEA & infrastructure

[email protected] [email protected]

# (562) 2446 1751 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1365

Pilar González

Analyst: Transport

[email protected]

# (562) 2446 1768 Felipe García

Head of Fixed Income

Lourdes Alamos [email protected]

Research Coordinator & Holdings Analyst

[email protected]

# (562) 2450 1609 CHILE COLOMBIA PERU

Gonzalo Covarrubias Carlos Sanchez Alfredo Bejar

Head of Capital Markets Head of Fixed Income Head of Fixed Income / FX Trading

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

CHILE COLOMBIA PERU # (562) 2450 1635 # (571) 323 9154 # (511) 205 9190 Ext 36148

Paulina Yazigi Daniel Velandia Irvin León Guido Riquelme Christian Jarrin Vallerie Yong

Head of Research & Chief Economist Head of Research & Chief Economist Senior Fixed Income Analyst Head of Sales RM Fixed Income Offshore Local FI Senior Trader

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

# (562) 2450 1637 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1505 # (511) 416 3333 Ext 37854 # (562) 2446 1712 # (571) 340 2591 # (511) 313 2902 - # (511) 313 2908

Felipe Lubiano Sergio Ferro Alberto Zapata Belén Larraín Andrés Valderrama Evangeline Arapoglou

Senior Fixed Income Analyst Fixed Income Analyst Fixed Income Analyst Head of International FI Sales Fixed Income Trader Senior International FI Trader

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

# (562) 2651 9308 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1609 # (511) 205 9190 Ext 36018 # (562) 2446 1720 # (571) 323 9163 # (511) 313 2902 - # (511) 313 2908

Paulina Valdivieso Camilo A. Durán Paz Stepke José Andrés Riveros Lizeth Espíritu

Fixed Income Analyst Macro Analyst International Fixed Income Sales Fixed Income Trader Fixed Income Trader

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

# (562) 2651 9337 # (5511) 339 4400 Ext. 1383 # (562) 2651 9336 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1180 # (511) 313 2902 - # (511) 313 2908

Andrés Osorio Benjamín Diaz

Economist Local Fixed Income Sales

[email protected] [email protected]

# (562) 2446 1760 # (562) 2446 1738

FIXED INCOME & ECONOMICS RESEARCH

CONTACT LIST

ANDEAN RESEARCH TEAM SALES & TRADING

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FIXED INCOME SALES & TRADING