Valuation of Crude Oil and Gas Reserves - Macquarie University
100505 Macquarie Australia Conference PRINT · 2017-01-22 · Gas value driving revised operating...
Transcript of 100505 Macquarie Australia Conference PRINT · 2017-01-22 · Gas value driving revised operating...
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Oil Search Update
Macquarie Australia Conference
5 May 2010
O I L S E A R C H L I M I T E D
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2009 Highlights
PNG LNG Project sanctioned on 8 December: Less than two years from FEED to Sanction
Transformational impact on Oil Search and PNG
ExxonMobil quality operator
Foundation for major LNG industry in PNG
Seven fold increase in proven and probable reserves, from 67 mmboe to 567 mmboe, with significant further potential upside
Successful capital raising resulting in very strong balance sheet with sufficient liquidity to fund both PNG LNG equity contribution plus T3/T4 gas exploration/ appraisal programme
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Strategic priorities in 2010and beyond
Assist Operator, ExxonMobil, to deliver PNG LNG Project on time and on budget
Priority focus on further LNG development, to capture maximum synergy value:
Gas exploration and appraisal activities in PNG
Strategic PNG gas acquisitions
Partner alignment
Optimise oil field management
Measured oil exploration activities
ACHIEVEMENT OF ABOVE WILL ENSURE CONTINUED TOP QUARTILE TSR PERFORMANCE
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PNG LNG ProjectUpdate
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PNG LNG Project Overview
6.6 MTPA, 2 train development, operated by ExxonMobil
Co-venturers:ExxonMobil – 33.2%, Operator
Oil Search – 29.0%
IPBC & Petromin (PNG Government) - 16.8%
Santos -13.5%
Nippon Oil Exploration - 4.7%
MRDC (PNG landowners) - 2.8%
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PNG LNG Project Overview
Fully contracted to quality Asian customers:Sinopec (China) ~2.0 MTPA
TEPCO (Japan) ~ 1.8 MTPA
Osaka Gas (Japan) ~1.5 MTPA
CPC (Taiwan) ~ 1.2 MTPA
20 year contracts
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PNG LNG Project Overview
Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) contracts awarded
Contracts mix of fixed and variable price
Construction underway, first LNG sales targeted for 2014 Investment for initial phase estimated at US$15 billion (ex. shipping & finance costs)Capital cost to be funded 70:30 debt: equityUS$14bn project finance facility in place for debt component
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2010 PNG LNG Project Activities
Continued early works: Roads, bridges, camps, site preparation and training facilities
Order remaining long lead items and place purchase ordersOpen supply routesMobilisation of people and equipment by key contractorsCommence Associated Gas (AG)construction
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Proposed PNG LNG Timetable
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
FinancialClose
• Continued early works• Detailed design
• Order long leads and place purchase orders• Open supply routes
• Contractor mobilisation• Commence
AG construction
• Pipe lay (Kutubu to Hides)
• Ongoing drilling• Complete Hides plant• Commission LNG plant
with Kutubu gas
• Ongoing procurement and mobilisation
• Airfield construction• Drilling mobilisation
• Start offshore pipeline construction
•Onshore line clearing• Start LNG equipment
installation
First Gas from Train 1,
then Train 2
• Complete AG • Commence
onshore pipe lay (Kutubu to Omati)
• Complete offshore pipe lay
• Start Hides plant installation
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GasGrowth
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PNG Gas Growth
Key strategic priority for Oil Search is to grow gas business in PNGLNG remains optimum commercialisation route for additional gas Significant pre-investment - PNG LNG will provide infrastructure and capacity to facilitate expansion and provide excellent cost structure:
Use of capacity in pipeline, jetty, tanks and services
Trained local work force
Government is very supportive of, and expects, future gas growth
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Two-Pronged Gas Growth Strategy
PNG LNG dedicated fields:
Proven (1P) 301 mmboe (OSH share) – all sold
Proven & probable (2P) 505 mmboe (OSH share)
Focus on moving 2P (& 3P) into 1P contractible category through field development optimisation and further appraisal
Other fields and exploration:
Existing proven & probable resources (2C) of 281 mmboe (OSH share), still to be commercialised
Programme to appraise discoveries and explore for new gas
Objective is to prove up sufficient proven contractible reserves to underwrite Trains 3 and 4
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Requirements for LNG train growth in PNG
OSH Operated LicenceOSH Interest LicencePetroleum Development LicencePetroleum Retention LicenceLicence ApplicationOil FieldGas FieldOil & Gas FieldOil PipelineProposed Gas Pipeline
Kumul Terminal
PRL01
PPL234
PRL08PPL240
PRL03
PRL11
PRL12
PPL239
PDL1
PPL233
PPL190
PPL219
PRL10
PRL02
PDL2
PDL5PDL6
PDL4
PDL3
PRL09
142°E
9°S
7°S
145°E50km
APDL14
PPL260
AngoreJuhaHides
Moran
Agogo Kutubu
Gobe Main
PNG LNG ProjectGas Resources
Mananda Attic
Flinders
Barikewa Deep
Huria
Hedinia FW
Lead 7
Korka
Gobe Deep
Hides FW
Pasca B
ExplorationGas Resources
Pandora
Barikewa
Uramu
P’nyang
Kimu
Juha North
SE Gobe
Non PNG LNG Gas Resources
3rd Train Threshold
0
5
10
15
20
25tcf
PNG LNG3C
Upside
PNG LNG
Base Volume
2C
3C
Other Highlands JV Partner Resources
4th Train Threshold
2C
3C
Forelands &
Offshore Resources
Exploration
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Circle areas proportional to reserves potential. Outer circle unrisked potential, inner circle risked potential
Red = GasOrange = CondensateGreen = Oil
Proposed 2010/11 PNG Gas Exploration
PRL01
PPL234
PRL08PPL240
PRL03
PRL11
PDL7
PPL239
PDL1
PPL190
PPL219
PRL10
PRL02
PDL2
PDL4
PDL3
PRL09
PPL244
9°S
6°S
145°E50km
Kumul Terminal
PDL6PDL5
APRL14
PPL260
APPL249
APPL250
PPL
233
PDL9PDL8
142°E
Flinders
Barikewa Deep
KorkaHuria (PDL 8)
Mananda FW
Mananda Attic
CBM test
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Oil Search Reserves & Resources
Six-fold increase in proven (1P) reserves, from 50 mmboe at end 2008 to 344 mmboe
Seven-fold increase in proven & probable (2P) reserves, from 67 mmboe to 567 mmboe
PNG LNG Project reserve booking of 505 mmboe
2P reserve life extended from 8 years to 70 years (based on 2009 production)
2C resources, comprising gas and associated liquids, of 281 mmboe at end 2009, compared to 886 mmboe at end 2008
Total 2P and 2C reserves and resources of 848 mmboe
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Significant additional LNG reserves booking potential
PNG LNG gross 2P reserves are 9+ tcf gas, 200+ mmbbl liquids Similar level of proven and probable resources already exist outside PNG LNG:
Total 2C resources in OSH and other PNG fields, ex PNG LNG, estimated at 1,686 mmboe (9 tcf)
PNG 2009Reserves & Resources (100% Licence Estimates)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Mil
lio
ns
of
Barr
els
Oil
Eq
uiv
.
Oil Only Oil + PNG LNGOSH Fields'Reserves &Resources
All OtherResources
2P/2C
Oil Search 2009PNG Fields Net Reserves & Resources
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Mil
lio
ns
of
Barr
els
Oil
Eq
uiv
. (N
ET
)
Oil Fields Oil + PNG LNG Oil + PNG LNG +Resources
1P/1C 2P/2C
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Oil Production
and Exploration
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PNG Oil Production (gross)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Oil
Pro
du
ctio
n (
Bo
pd
)
P10
P50
P90
Pre-OSHDecline
Added over55 mmstbcompared
to Chevron
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Oil development drilling continues to add value
Since 2003, gross PNG proven (1P) oil reserves have increased by 51 mmbbl and proven and probable (2P) reserves by 37 mmbblDevelopment drilling has added 2P reserves at average cost of US$11.72/bbl Further opportunities exist to add oil reserves within field areas
PNG Oil Fields – Gross Ultimate Recoverable Reserves (pre-LNG)
1P
2P
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
Mil
lio
ns
of
Barr
els
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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Operational Outlook
Gas value driving revised operating framework:
Field reliability management
Gas conservation with minor oil production impact
Value-adding PNG production activities to continue in 2010 & 2011, winding back as first gas approaches
Ongoing focus on costs and capital efficiency
Aligning and maximising use of infrastructure to support LNG Project
Production outlook for 2010 unchanged at 7.2 – 7.4 mmboe, with incremental activity expected to flatten decline curve in 2011 - 2013
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PNG 2010 Exploration Summary
PRL01
PPL234
PRL08PPL240
PRL03
PRL11
PDL7
PPL239
PDL1
PPL190
PPL219
PRL10
PRL02
PDL2
PDL4
PDL3
PRL09
PPL244
142°E
9°S
6°S
145°E50km
Kumul Terminal
PDL6PDL5
APRL14
PPL260
APPL249
APPL250
PPL
233
PDL9PDL8
Commitment
Discretionary
Future Commitment
Well Types
Prospect/Lead (POS%)Mean Oil Gross (mmstb)Mean Gas Gross (tcf)
Seismic
CommitmentDiscretionary
Permit 2D(distance)/3D(area)
Flinders (12.5%)1.0 tcf+
Korka (15%)1.3 tcf +
Mananda Attic (45%)30 mmstb
Mananda FW (10%)1.2 tcf +
PPL 234 3,000+km2
PDL 8/PRL 11 80km
PPL 233 55km
PDL 2 70km
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MENA 2010 Exploration Summary
Commitment
Discretionary
Future Commitment
Well Types
Prospect/Lead (POS%)Mean Oil Gross (mmstb)Mean Gas Gross (bscf)
Seismic
CommitmentDiscretionary
Permit 2D(distance)/3D(area)
Sana’a Office
Dubai Office
Tajerouine
Le Kef
K42
Shakal
Block 7
Block 3
Taj. + Le Kef 600km
K42 200km
Shakal 50km
Jebel Milh (17%)28 mmstb
Block 3 & 7 400km
Al Meashar (20%)20 mmstb
Block 3/7 well,late 2010
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Outlook
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Production Outlook
PNG LNG adds ~18 mmboe pa to OSH at plateau in 2015 onwards. 30 year Project lifeT3 could add an additional ~9 mmboe pa, with T4 of similar magnitude
Net
Pro
du
ctio
n (
bo
ep
d)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
LNG GasLNG Gas
PNG DevelopmentPNG Development
70,000
80,000
Potential T3 LNG GasPotential T3 LNG Gas
LNG CondensateLNG Condensate
90,000
Potential T3 LNG CondensatePotential T3 LNG Condensate
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Summary
PNG LNG Project construction underwayCompany and country transformational
Active programmes to deliver more value in 2010/2011
Appraisal and exploration to prove up gas for T3/T4 has commenced
Core oil production remains solid. Focus on life extension, reliability and gas conservation
Measured oil and gas exploration in PNG and MENA
Activities underwritten by strong balance sheet and liquidity to meet LNG obligations, T3/T4
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O I L S E A R C H L I M I T E D