A look at Enrollment and

Retention Trends and Challenges

in the Midwest US

Brian Mikesell – VP, Market Solutions

Agenda

• Top 10 Mega-Trends in Higher Education

• What is on a student’s (and parent’s) mind?

• Enrollment Trends in this Region

• Personal Trainer

2

3

Progress & Succeed Engage & Enroll Plan & Learn

Searching/creating short list

Information gathering

Deciding next steps

Connecting with institutions

Requesting info/applying

Enrolling

Internship

Graduation

Getting a job

Paying off loans

Marketing and brand awareness

Analyzing class lists

Predicting enrollment numbers

Beginning recruitment process

Communicating with students

Reviewing applications

Shaping incoming class

Retention rates

Completion rates

Increased funding and

recurring revenue

ST

UD

EN

TS

IN

ST

ITU

TIO

NS

38 40 21

800,000 106,603 27,852

20,053

72%

Top 10 Megatrends

1. Economy recovering

2. Students as powerful and knowledgeable consumers

3. College affordability / unaffordability

4. Non-traditional student as the new traditional

5. Decreased enrollments / increased competition

6. College completion / Excessive time in school

7. Competency-based education

8. Too little too late: remediation and bridge programs

9. Big classes and big data

10. Role of Federal / State and shifting funding models

4

5

Economy is Recovering

• Unemployment is dropping – 4 year low

• Job openings increasing – most since May 2008 (3.9

mill)

• “Quit Rate” increasing

• Historical cycle: better economy - enrollments decline

• College enrollment – half-million drop in 2012 from 2011

• 90% of decline due to non-traditional students (25+)

• Employers are struggling to find skilled applicants!

• Postsecondary credential as a job requirement is

higher than ever

• 53% job postings – bachelors degree. 85% - associates

degree

Side facts

• 2010-2012: “bachelors degree or higher jobs” increased

while “other jobs” decreased

• 34 million have college credit but no degree

6

Upside Down Economy-Education

Cycle

Summary

• Economy improving awesome

• Job availability awesome

• Jobs that require a degree – increasing awesome

• People getting degrees – flat or declining not

awesome

• People not completing a degree – increasing not

awesome

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Mega-Trends Details

1. Non-Traditional is the new Traditional – fewer than

20% of 20 million enrolled are 18-24 yrs old enrolled full-

time and have most expenses paid by parents

2. Cost – concern for everyone. Reduced state tax

support last 5 years made up by tuition hikes. Shift from

tax-payer to student.

• Student debt at all-time high = $29,400

3. Cost-Value Comparisons –

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Is it worth it?

• Students are skeptical, frugal and demanding

• Decisions: choosing major carefully, starting at a

community college, learn a trade, future earnings and

employability

• Privates carry greatest risk. One-fourth had 10% > dips

• Tuition discount rate – all time high: 45%

• Schools cutting tuition and cutting expenditures

9

College Attendance Decisions

10

http://www.gallup.com/poll/163268/americans-say-graduates-

jobs-status-key-college-choice.aspx

41%

16%

37%

32%

22%

40% 43%

14%

40%

51%

13%

33%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

% grads able to get a goodjob

% students who graduate Price of college/university

All respondents

<$3,000/mo.

$3,000-$7,499/mo.

>$7,500/mo.

Monthly Income

In your opinion, which of the following is the MOST

important factor in choosing which college or university

to attend? (general population response)

Past

Present

Future

Your Region

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Enrollment Trends

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College Enrollment Falls as Economy Recovers

July 25, 2013

…signs point to 2013-14 being the year when traditional four-

year, nonprofit colleges begin an enrollment contraction that

will last for several years.

Hardest hit are likely to be colleges that do not rank among the

wealthiest or most prestigious, and are heavily dependent on

tuition revenue.

• Data for every college and university in the U.S.

• Applicants, Admits, Enrolled – 2003-2012

13

All Schools 4 yr public/private not for profit

14

College attendance began a steep climb from 15.2 million in 1999 to 20.4

million in 2011 (34.2% increase)

Forecasting

Trends will continue through 2020

15

Our projections indicate that the era of annually increasing

graduating classes through about 2011 is ending, while

graduating classes are rapidly becoming more diverse.

Total HS Students Graduates By State

(08-09 to 19-20)

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State %

WI -10%

IA -6%

MN -6%

MI -19%

MO -7%

OH -7%

IL -6%

IN -2%

NE +5%

KS +5%

-15 -5 0 5 15

Share Non-White HS Students By State (08-09 to 19-20)

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State 09 to 19 % Diff

IA 10-17 +7

MN 17-23 +6

WI 17-21 +4

NE 17-26 +9

IN 16-23 +7

KS 21-27 +6

IL 36-42 +6

MO 21-23 +2

OH 16-18 +2

MI 24-26 +2

10 20 30 40 50

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Keep who we’ve got!

A new focus?

25% of all students

are taking 15+

credit hours to

graduate in four

years

19% As a result, 19%

graduate in four

years

54% Average six year

graduation rate

Source: Complete College America "Game Changers" 2013

Personal Trainer

What should I

• Keep doing…

• Stop doing…

• Start doing…

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Noel Levitz Higher Ed Benchmark Polls (2013): 263 colleges and universities

Progress & Succeed Engage & Enroll Plan & Learn

Want different results?

Keep Doing (effective and many doing)

• Campus open house events / campus visit days (1-3)

• Encouraging ‘apply now’ on admissions website (1-3)

• Schedule campus visits on admissions website (1-3)

• Using enrolled students in recruitment/marketing (1)

• Community college articulation agreements (2)

• Publicizing HS programs which earns college credits (3)

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Code Institution

1 four year private

2 four year public

3 Two year community college

Stop Doing (many doing but not effective)

• Asking current students/alumni for applicant referrals (1,2)

• Online college fairs (1,2)

• Online net-price calculator (1,3)

• Mailing course schedules to residents in area (1,3)

• Recruiting through business/industry/consortia (1,3)

• Billboard, bus or other outdoor advertising and radio (2)

• Targeting high academic ability students (3)

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Start Doing (effective and not many doing)

• Campus visit events or off campus meetings or events

designed for HS guidance counselors (1,2,3)

• Weekend visits for high school students (1,2)

• Offering loans directly from the college/univ (1,2)

• Assess student reactions to financial aid awards (2,3)

• Telecounseling – continuous, scheduled high volume (1)

• College-paid trips to campus for prospective students (2)

• Admissions decisions ‘on the spot’ wherever (3)

• Retargeting ads that target students who previously

visited your web site (1)

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Top 5 modes of communication

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Bold = < 25% using

Volume of Contact by Stage

25

Top 5 Internal Operations (4 yr only)

26

Four-year private Four-year public

Outsource student search CRM

CRM Funnel tracking

Funnel tracking Predictive modeling

Financial aid leverage models Financial aid leverage models

Outsource inquiry to app Content management system

Bold = < 25% using

Four-year private Four-year public

60,000 52,500 (2x from 2 yrs ago)

Search Name Buys

Keep Doing (effective and many doing)

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• Academic support program (1-3)

• Tutoring (1-3)

• Work experiences in their intended major (1-3)

• First year experience program (1,2)

• Programs for

• academically high risk students (1,2)

• Honor students (2)

• Early –alert and intervention system (1)

Stop Doing (many doing but not effective)

• Maintaining contact with students who are leaving (1-3)

• Identifying re-entry dates for students who are leaving

(1-3)

• Surveys with students who are withdrawing (2)

• Programs designed

• Online learners (2,3)

• Second-year students (1)

• Adult/non-traditional students (2)

• Online social networking communities to engage

students (1)

• Financial literacy programs (3) 28

Start Doing (effective and not many doing)

• Mandatory advising (1-3)

• Advising by professional staff/faculty, one-on-one (1-3)

• Advising for students approaching graduation (1)

• Reverse-transfer – help them go back to previous institution (1,2)

• Programs designed for

• International students (2,3)

• Students of color (1,2)

• Honor students (1,3)

• Veterans (1,3)

• Transfer students (3)

• Second-year students (2)

• Learning Communities (2)

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1. Performance funding – funding tied to progression

2. Corequisite Remediation – parallel remedial help

3. Full-time is 15 not 12 credit hours – at same cost

4. Structured Schedules – same time, same days till done

5. Guided Pathways – all students have a degree plan

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“Time is the enemy!”

Top Internal Operations

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Top Internal Operations

Identify incoming students strengths, weaknesses, needs, and

concerns

Emphasis on teaching and learning

Retention software to track and manage

Predictive modeling – likelihood of incoming students persisting

Tracking persistence and progression – term by term- all students and

credit hours completed vs. attempted

Tracking tough courses, retention rates by program, academic

probation

Setting measurable goals to improve retention year-to-year and college

completion

Title III or Title V funding

Bold = < 25% using

“If something can't go on forever, it will stop.”

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Herbert Stein

Economist

The pattern of the last few decades, in which higher education costs

grew much faster than incomes, with the difference made up by

borrowing, can't go on forever.

As students and parents begin to apply the brakes, colleges need to

find ways to make that stop a smooth one rather than a crash.

WSJ, Jan 15 2014

Summary

The next 8-10 years are going to be very different than

the last 15 years

Sticking to what once worked…will not work

How will you internally balance getting students to your

school and getting them through your school?

What will institution choose to keep doing, stop doing

and start doing?

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Questions?