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Transcript of 1 WTO Statistics Division [email protected] Trends in Services Trade under GATS Recent Developments...
1
WTO Statistics Division [email protected]
Trends in Services Trade under GATS
Recent Developments
Symposium on Assessment of Trade in ServicesWorld Trade Organization 14-15 March 2002
2
To which extent can statistics help in the Assessment of Trade in Services ?
Major relevant Statistical Frameworks• Statistics on Domestic Economic Activity • Sectoral Statistics/Quantitative Indicators • Balance of Payments Statistics • Foreign Affiliates Trade in Services (FATS) Statistics
Statistics and Modes of supply
Specialization Indicators
Conclusions
3
Statistics on Domestic Economic Activity
SourcesNational Accounts, employment statistics, business statistics
Examples of informationOutput, value added, number of employees, turnover
Why relevant?Information on market size, competitiveness, employment generation
Who collects?Country comparable statistics are collected by UN, OECD, IMF, and Eurostat, but national sources are much richer
Economic activity
4
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
United
State
s
France Ita
ly
Poland
Argen
tina
Colom
biaPer
u
Philippin
esIn
dia
Mal
aysi
a
Uganda
Camer
oon
Angola
Services Agriculture Manufacturing Other sectors
Share of Services Value Added in GDP Selected Countries, 1999
Economic activity
5
35
45
55
65
75
1990 1995 1999
Share of Services Value Added in GDP by Economic Groups
Developed countries
Developing countries
World
Economic activity
percent
6
Quantitative Indicators
Coverage• Sector-specific quantitative information
Examples of specific services sectors• Transport: persons or cargo transported • Telecommunication: minutes of international telephone traffic
Why relevant?• No price distortion. Meaningful, because specifically defined for the sector in question
But ...• Do not provide for comparability across sectors
Quantitative indicators
7Note: : International telecommunication transactions (BOP imports + exports) represent mostly payments between telecommunication operators for termination services
International Telecommunication Transactions and Minutes of International Telephone Traffic
45
50
55
60
65
70
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Billio
n $
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Bil
lio
n o
f m
inu
tes
International telephone traffic
BOP imports and exports
Quantitative indicators
8
70
90
110
130
1999 2000 2001
Bil
lio
n E
uro
s
145
150
155
160
165
170
Bil
lio
n t
ou
rist
s
International tourist arrivals
Travel exports in €
Travel exports in $
Tourist Arrivals and BOP Travel Exports France, Italy and Spain
Quantitative indicators
9
Balance of Payments Statistics
CoverageTransactions between residents and non residents on goods, services, income, transfers, financial claims, and liabilities
Concepts & definitions5th edition of IMF BOP Manual (BPM5)
Why relevant?Information on international trade in services is widely comparable across countries
Who collects?IMF, OECD, and Eurostat at the international level
BOP
10
BOP
Exports of Goods and Services, 1980-2000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
(19
80
=1
00
)
0
1500
3000
4500
6000
7500
9000
10500
12000
Bill
ion
$
Goods Services
Services
Goods
GDP
11
Exports of Commercial Services by Economic Groups - Shares in Total
80%
20%
1990
Developedcountries
Developingcountries 1995
Developedcountries
Developingcountries
26%
74%
2000
Developedcountries
Developingcountries
25%
75%
BOP
12
05
1015202530354045505560
WesternEurope
NorthAmerica
Asia LatinAmerica
Africa
per
cen
t
1990 1995 2000
Commercial Services Exports Shares by Regions
BOP
13
BPM5 Major Services Categories
3. Communication services
4. Construction services
5. Insurance services
6. Financial services
7. Computer and Information services
8. Royalties and licence fees
9. Other business services
10. Personal, cultural and recreational services
Commercial services:
1. Transport
2. Travel
3 -10 Other commercial Services
BOP
11. Government services
14
0
10
20
30
40
50
Transport Travel Other services
pe
rce
nt
1990 1995 2000
Structure of Commercial Services Exports
29%
23%
34% 32%37%
45%
BOP
15
Structure of Other Services Exports, 1998
Other miscellaneous
business services
Personal & cultural services
Royalties & licence fees Computer &
Information services
Financial services
Communication services
Construction services
Insurance services
43%10%
4%14%10%
3%13% 3%
BOP
16
Foreign Affiliates Trade in Services (FATS) Statistics
Information covered • Operations of foreign affiliates, such as turnover and employment
Direction of trade• Inward : activity of foreign affiliates in the compiling economy• Outward: foreign affiliates of the compiling economy that are established abroad
Concepts & definitions• Manual on Statistics of International Trade in Services• Foreign Affiliates are those affiliates in which the foreign investor holds a majority of the ordinary shares or voting power
Why relevant ?• Provides information on GATS mode 3 - commercial presence
FATS
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Share of Services Turnover of Foreign Affiliates in National Total - Selected Countries
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
pe
rce
nt
Hungary
Norway
Sweden
Czech
Rep
.
Nether
lands
Finla
nd
Poland
France
Japan
FATS
18
Sales by GATS Modes of Supply: Statistical Approximation
Modes
Mode of Supply Proxy rough estimate
(billion U S $)
1 - c ross-bo rde rsupply
B O P : com m ercia l serv icesexports (exclud ing trave l)
1 ,000
2 - consum ptionabroad
B O P : trave l exports 500
3 - com m ercia lp resence
F A T S S tatistics: T u rnover 2,000
4 – m ovem ent o fnatu ra l pe rsons
B O P : com pensation o f em p loyees 50
19
Specialization Indicators
Often named specialization ratios, comparative advantage, or export specialization
generally defined as the ratio of exports of a service category to total exports of services, or goods and services, or GDP; often relative to the average value for all countries
Can be computed for countries, or country groups, and at the level of modes of supply, using proxies
Limitations should be recognized when interpreting results (lack of country coverage, data reliability, classification detail)
Indicators
20
Commercial Services minus Travel (Mode 1) Major Exporters and Export Specialization, 2000
0 50 100 150 200
United States
United Kingdom
Japan
Germany
France
Netherlands
Hong Kong, China
Belgium-Lux.
0 20 40 60 80
Kiribati
Mozambique
Cape Verde
Neth. Antilles
Vanuatu
Greece
Ethiopia
Djibouti
Major exporters Export specialization
Billion US$ % (relative to exports of commercial services)
Indicators
21
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94
Namibia
Maldives
Macau, China
Anguilla
Dominican Rep.
Bahamas
Samoa
St. Lucia
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
US
Spain
France
Italy
UK
Germany
China
Canada
Travel Services (Mode 2) Major Exporters and Export Specialization, 2000
Billion $ % (relative to exports of commercial services)
Major exporters Export specialization
Indicators
22
FDI Stock in Services (Mode 3 proxy) OECD, Major Host Countries (inward) and
Outward Specialization, 1999
(%, relative to GDP)
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
USA
UK
DE
CA
FR
NL
IT
CH
AU
DK
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
BL
CH
NL
UK
CA
DK
DE
ES
SE
IT
Billion $
Inward FDI stock, major countries Outward FDI stock, specialization
Indicators
23
Compensation of Employees (Mode 4 proxy) Major Importers and Export specialization, 2000
Major importers Export specialization
Billion $ % (relative to exports of commercial services)
Indicators
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
USA
Switzerl.
Germany
Israel
Bel.-Lux.
Luxemb.
Italy
UK
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Lesotho
Georgia
Moldova
Armenia
Bosnia Her.
Philippines
Albania
Swaziland
24
Trade in Services Statistics:Recent Improvements
• Thanks to BPM5, now detailed services categories are available• Thanks to MSITS, more detailed categories will be available
FATS
BOP
• Concepts, definitions and classification available (MSITS)Concepts, definitions and classification available (MSITS)• Data collection started in many countriesData collection started in many countries• The bulk of services transactions covered by GATS may be assessed The bulk of services transactions covered by GATS may be assessed
Conclusions
Modes • BOP and FATS are a first step in providing information by modes of supply
Statistics were dramatically improved recently:
25
Trade in Services Statistics :Remaining Weaknesses
Conclusions
• BOP statistics lack reliability for detailed categories • Documentation on data coverage and deviations from standards is rarely available • detailed categories are not reported by all countries
BOP
FATS• Lack of reliability due to the infancy stage of FATS statistics• Lack of comparability across countriescountries• Developing countries have not started compilation yet Developing countries have not started compilation yet
Modes• There is no one-to-one correspondence between statistics and modes of supply
Statistics still need to be dramatically improved:
26
The Task Force on Statistics of International Trade in Services
Conclusions
The Task Force completed the Manual on Statistics of International Trade in Services
The Manual will be published by the UN very soon; it is available on the UN and OECD web pages
The Task Force will now focus on compilation guidance