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Workshop “Regions acting on climate change: the contribution of satellite information and services”

Open Days “European Week of Regions and Cities”, Brussels, 7 October 2007

Climate change: causes, effects, and Climate change: causes, effects, and satellite solutions for regionssatellite solutions for regions

André Jol

European Environment Agency

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The European Environment Agency is the EU body dedicated to providing sound, independent

information on the environment

We are a main information source for those involved in developing, adopting, implementing and

evaluating environmental policy, and also the general public

 

The EEA missionThe EEA mission

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EEA member and collaborating countriesEEA member and collaborating countries

Member countries

Collaborating countries

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• Impacts of climate change in Europe, adaptation challenges and EU/national action

• Greenhouse gas projections, effectiveness of mitigation and EU/national action

• Information needs (in-situ and Kopernikus/GMES)

• Way forward (EEA role)

Content of presentationContent of presentation

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Key past and projected impactsKey past and projected impacts

Main biogeographic regions of Europe Main biogeographic regions of Europe (EEA member countries)(EEA member countries)

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• Extremes of cold became less frequent and warm extremes more frequent• Number of hot days almost tripled between 1880 and 2005

Temperature extremes in EuropeTemperature extremes in Europe

• Increase in frequency, intensity and duration of heat-waves• Further decrease of number of cold days and frost extremes

futu

rep

ast

Observed changes in duration of warm spells in Observed changes in duration of warm spells in summer in the period 1976 - 2006summer in the period 1976 - 2006

Projected changes in number of Projected changes in number of tropical nights between periods tropical nights between periods

1961-1990 and 2071-21001961-1990 and 2071-2100

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• Intensity of precipitation extremes increased in the past 50 years (across Europe)• No change in part of Europe experiencing meteorological drought conditions

Precipitation extremes in EuropePrecipitation extremes in Europe

• More frequent heavy precipitation events (across Europe)• More and longer dry periods (especially in southern Europe)

futu

rep

ast

Changes in the contribution of heavy rainfall to total Changes in the contribution of heavy rainfall to total precipitation between 1961-2006precipitation between 1961-2006

Number of consecutive dry days Number of consecutive dry days (1860 – 2100)(1860 – 2100)

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• Climate variability and change contributed to an increase in average ozone concentration in central and South-Western (1-2% /decade)

• The high long-lasting ozone concentration in summer 2003 was associated with the extreme heat wave

Air pollution by ozoneAir pollution by ozone

• Climate-induced increase in ozone levels may make current ozone abatement policies inadequate

futu

rep

ast

Trend in tropospheric ozone concentration due to climate variability and climate changeTrend in tropospheric ozone concentration due to climate variability and climate change

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GlaciersGlaciers

• A 3°C increase in average summer temperature could reduce the existing glacier cover of the Alps by 80%

• With continuing climate change nearly all smaller glaciers and one third of glacier area in Norway could disappear by 2100

• The vast majority of European glaciers is in retreat (accelerated since 1980s)• Since 1850 the glaciers in the Alps lost about two thirds of their volume

futu

rep

ast

Cumulative specific net mass balance Cumulative specific net mass balance of glaciers from all European of glaciers from all European glaciated regions 1946-2006glaciated regions 1946-2006

Modelled remains of the glacier cover Modelled remains of the glacier cover in the European Alps for an increase in the European Alps for an increase in average summer air temperature in average summer air temperature

of 1 to 5ºC of 1 to 5ºC

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Arctic sea iceArctic sea ice

• Summer ice is projected to continue to shrink and may even disappear at the height of the summer melt season in the coming decades• There will be still substantial ice in winter

• Arctic sea ice extent has declined at an accelerating rate, especially in summer• The record low ice cover in September 2007 was half of the size of a normal minimum extent

in the 1950s

futu

rep

ast

Observed and projected Arctic September sea-ice extent 1900-2100Observed and projected Arctic September sea-ice extent 1900-2100 The 2007 minimum sea-ice extentThe 2007 minimum sea-ice extent

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Sea level riseSea level rise

• Sea level will rise 0.18 to 0.59 m from 1980-2000 to 2100 (IPCC)• Recent projections indicate a future SLR that may exceed the IPCC upper limit

• Global average SLR during the 20th century was about 1.7mm/year• Recent satellite and tide-gauge data indicate a higher average rate of about 3.1 mm/year in

the past 15 years

futu

rep

ast

Sea level changes in Europe 1992-2007Sea level changes in Europe 1992-2007

Projected global average Projected global average sea-level rise 1990-2100sea-level rise 1990-2100

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Northward movement of marine speciesNorthward movement of marine species

• Further northward shift is likely, but projections are not yet available

• Northward shift of warmer-water plankton species by up to 1 100 km over last 40 years, which seems to be accelerated since 2000

• Many fish species have shifted northward (e.g. silvery john dory by 50 km/y) and sub-tropical species are occurring increasingly in European waters

past

futu

re

Recordings of two tropical fish Recordings of two tropical fish 1963-19961963-1996

Su

barc

tic

Su

barc

tic

sp

ecie

ssp

ecie

s

Northward movement of zooplankton Northward movement of zooplankton between 1958-2005between 1958-2005

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River floodsRiver floods

• Increase in the occurrence and frequency of flood events in large parts of Europe• Less snow accumulation in winter and lower risk of early spring flooding

• Since 1990, 259 major river floods have been reported in Europe (165 since 2000), the increase is mainly because of better reporting and land-use changes

past

futu

re

Occurrence of flood events 1998-2008Occurrence of flood events 1998-2008Relative change in 100-year return level of river Relative change in 100-year return level of river discharge between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990discharge between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990

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River flow droughtRiver flow drought

• Increase in frequency and intensity of droughts in many regions of Europe• Southern and south-eastern Europe are most prone to an increase in drought hazard, but

minimum river flows will also increase in many other regions

• Europe has been affected by several major droughts in recent decades (e.g. 2003 in central parts and 2005 in the Iberian Peninsula)

• Climate change has probably increased the frequency/severity of droughts in some regions

past

futu

re

Change in the severity of river flow Change in the severity of river flow droughts in Europe 1962-1990droughts in Europe 1962-1990

Relative change in meanRelative change in meansummer minimum 7-day summer minimum 7-day river flow between river flow between 2071-2100 and 1961-19902071-2100 and 1961-1990

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Distribution of plant speciesDistribution of plant species

• Shift of European plant species by hundreds kilometres to the north (by the late 21st century)• Forests are likely to have contracted in the south and expanded in the north• 60 % of all mountain species may face extinction

• Climate change causes northward and uphill shift of many European plant species• Mountain ecosystems are changing as pioneer species expand uphill and cold-adapted species

are driven out of their ranges

past

futu

re

Incre

ase in

sp

ecie

s r

ich

ness o

n

Incre

ase in

sp

ecie

s r

ich

ness o

n

Sw

iss A

lpin

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ou

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in s

um

mit

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in s

um

mit

s

in 2

0in

20

thth c

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Number of disappearing Number of disappearing plant species in 2050 plant species in 2050

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Growing season for agricultural cropsGrowing season for agricultural crops

• A further lengthening of the growing season is projected • In western and southern Europe the limited water availability and high temperature will hinder

plant growth

• The lengths of the growing season of several agricultural crops has increased in the North, favouring the introduction of new species

• Locally in the south there is a shortening of growing season, with higher risk of damages from delayed spring frost

past

futu

re

Rate of change of crop growing Rate of change of crop growing season length 1975-2007season length 1975-2007

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Crop-yield variabilityCrop-yield variability

• More variable crop yields because extreme weather events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude

• Since the beginning of the 21st century, the variability of crop yields has increased as a consequence of extreme weather events

past

futu

re

Sensitivity of cereal yields to climate change for maize and wheatSensitivity of cereal yields to climate change for maize and wheat

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Forest growthForest growth

• Substantial shifts in distribution of forest species across Europe• Change in distribution and phenology of both pests and pollinators can lead to further changes

in forests• Periods of droughts and warmer winters will increase pest populations weakening forests

• In continental Europe, the forests are growing faster than in the early 20th century due to improved forest management, nitrogen deposition, reduced acidification, and increased temperature and CO2 concentration

past

futu

re

Current (2000) and projected (2100) forest coverage in EuropeCurrent (2000) and projected (2100) forest coverage in Europe

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Forest fire dangerForest fire danger

• More severe fire weather, more area burned, more ignitions and longer fire seasons• Increases in the fire potential during summer month, especially in southern and central

Europe• Probably an increase in the frequency of extreme fire danger days in spring and autumn

• Fire danger increased during the past 50 years particularly in the Mediterranean and central Europe

past

futu

re

Projected changes in fire danger Projected changes in fire danger for 2071-2100for 2071-2100

Average annual change (1958-2006) of fire danger Average annual change (1958-2006) of fire danger level (SSR) level (SSR) in % per yearin % per year

autumnautumn

summersummer

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European CC Adaptation ChallengesEuropean CC Adaptation Challenges • ‘Climate-proof’ EU policies and Directives • Integrate adaptation into EU’s funding programmes• Consider new policies, e.g. spatial planning as an

integration tool• Integrate adaptation in EU external relations (developing

countries)• Enhancing the knowledge base, e.g. regarding regional

scale and information on costs• Involvement of civil society, business sector organisations

and enhanced information exchange• Exploit opportunities for innovative adaptation

technologies

Commission Green Paper, consultation in 2007 White Paper with concrete proposals expected early 2009

Early action through existing legislation (Water FWD, Natura2000, etc)

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• National adaptation strategies/plans:

• Under preparation: Belgium, Czech Republic, Estonia, Germany, Latvia, Norway, Romania

• Adopted: Denmark, Finland, France, Hungary, the Netherlands, Spain, United Kingdom

• Adaptation often focused on flood management and defence

• Scope for other adaptation actions, e.g.:

• Water demand management (scarcity and droughts)

• Natural hazard risk management

• Reinforcing infrastructure

• Land-use management and spatial planning, greening of cities

• Ecosystem management

• Health/heat action plans, health system planning

Current national adaptation plans and measuresCurrent national adaptation plans and measures

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Proposed European Climate Change Impacts, Proposed European Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation ClearinghouseVulnerability and Adaptation Clearinghouse

• Climate change observations, impacts, vulnerabilities, actions, costs

• Provides networking to existing and future thematic and regional networks and organisations (droughts, marine, forest fires, coastal zones, disasters)

• Contributes to the implementation of the upcoming Commission White Paper on Adaptation

• Supports the coordination of future EU contributions to the UNFCCC Nairobi Work Programme

• Includes the results of relevant research projects (e.g. EU RTD or JRC projects)

• Goes beyond EU borders (e.g. transboundary impacts)

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EU-15 Kyoto target could be reached with all measures, EU-15 Kyoto target could be reached with all measures, Kyoto mechanisms and carbon sinksKyoto mechanisms and carbon sinks

96.9 96.696.0

98.0

92.1

88.6

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Inde

x 10

0 =

bas

e-ye

ar le

vel

EU-15 greenhouse gas emissionsEU-15 projections with existing measuresEU-15 projections with existing and additional measuresEU-15 projections with existing and additional measures, carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanismsEU-15 Kyoto target (2008-2012)

Kyoto Protocol commitment

period 2008-2012

Use of carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanisms

EU-15 Kyoto target

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• EU emissions trading scheme• Promotion of electricity from renewable energy• Improvements in the energy performance of

buildings and energy efficiency in large industrial installations

• Promotion of combined heat and power (CHP)• Energy taxation• Reducing the average carbon dioxide emissions of new

passenger cars• Promotion of the use of energy-efficient appliances• Recovery of gases from landfills• Reduction of fluorinated gases

Key EU (domestic) policies and measures to Key EU (domestic) policies and measures to reduce GHG emissionsreduce GHG emissions

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• Binding EU commitment: cut GHG by 20% by 2020 compared with 1990 levels (internal EU burden sharing still to be agreed)

• Objective: 30% reduction by 2020 (from 1990) for all industrialised countries if other developed countries will make comparable efforts

• Long term objective (developed countries): 60-80 % cut by 2050 (from 1990)

• Binding target of a 20 % share of renewable energies in total EU energy consumption by 2020 (different national targets to be agreed)

• Minimum 10% biofuels in total EU transport fuel (petrol, diesel) by 2020 subject to production being sustainable, second-generation biofuels being available, and successful amendments to the fuel quality directive

• Non-binding target to reduce total EU energy consumption 20% by 2020

• Discussions on regulatory framework for environmentally safe carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), review of the EU ETS, CO2 from new passenger cars

CARE package climate change and energy (Jan 2008) CARE package climate change and energy (Jan 2008)

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Trends in Transport and Environment (2008 report)Trends in Transport and Environment (2008 report)

The environmental performance of the transport sector is still unsatisfactory

Technology changes and measures are insufficient to meet targets

Policymakers should also address growth in transport demand

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Renewable energies penetration is still low: mainly Renewable energies penetration is still low: mainly biomass, biomass, followed by hydropower and wind (growing fastest) followed by hydropower and wind (growing fastest) (total is (total is

6.7% of primary energy in 2005 or 8.5% of final energy consumption)6.7% of primary energy in 2005 or 8.5% of final energy consumption)

Natural gas24.6%

Renewables6.7%

Oil36.7%

Nuclear14.2%

Other fuels0.2%

Coal and lignite17.7%

Hydro 21.9%

Biomass and Waste 67.9%

Wind 5.0%

Solar 0.7%

Geothermal 4.5%

Wood and Wood Wastes

77.2%

Biogas 5.3%

Municipal Solid Waste 12.0%

Biofuels 5.5%

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EU share of renewable energy in EU share of renewable energy in finalfinal energy consumption was 8,5% energy consumption was 8,5% in 2005 (EU target 20% by 2020), large efforts needed by most MSin 2005 (EU target 20% by 2020), large efforts needed by most MS

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

EE

A

EU

-27

EU

-15

Norw

ay

Icela

nd

Sw

eden

Latv

iaF

inla

nd

Austr

ia

Port

ugal

Sw

itzerland

Rom

ania

Esto

nia

Denm

ark

Slo

venia

Turk

ey

Lithuania

Fra

nce

Bulg

aria

Spain

Pola

nd

Gre

ece

Slo

vakia

Czech R

epublic

Germ

any

Italy

Hungary

Irela

nd

Cypru

sN

eth

erlands

Belg

ium

United K

ingdom

Luxem

bourg

Malta

2005 shares

2020 proposed targets

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Example: EEA study on wind energyExample: EEA study on wind energy (wind energy density map)(wind energy density map)