(1 Villach Conferences 1985 & 1987 IIASA Climate Change ...pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14408/1/6 -...
Transcript of (1 Villach Conferences 1985 & 1987 IIASA Climate Change ...pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14408/1/6 -...
Institutional Review, IIASA – 27 February 2017
Nebojsa NakicenovicDeputy Director GeneralInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Professor Emeritus of Energy EconomicsVienna University of Technology
2017 #2Nakicenovic
1986 1988
UN Conference on Human Environment, 1972 (1st Earth Summit)
1981 1986
Villach Conferences 1985 & 1987
1978
IIASA Climate Change Related Reports
Scientific Assessments: Credible, Salient and Legitimate.
2017 #3Nakicenovic
What was the policy impact of these and many other science reports?
Source: Alex Röhrl, UN DESA
2017 #6Nakicenovic UN General Assembly resolution 65/151
2030 GEA Goals and Targets●Universal Access to Modern Energy
●Double Energy Efficiency Improvement
●Double Renewable Share in Final Energy
Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable
2017 #7Nakicenovic1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
MikrochipKommerzielle
Luftfahrt
Fernseher
VakuumröhreOttomotor
ElektrischerMotor
Dampf-maschine
Nuklear-energie
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Oil
Gas
Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Global Primary EnergyHistorical Evolution
2017 #8Nakicenovic1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Bio-CCS – negative CO2
Nat-gas-CCSCoal-CCS
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Oil
Gas
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030
~30% renewables by 2030
Global Primary EnergyA Transformational Pathway
2017 #9Nakicenovic1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Gm
3
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200BaselineGeothermalSolarWindHydroNuclearGas wCCSGas woCCSOilCoal wCCSCoal woCCSBiomass wCCSBiomass woCCS
Biomass
Coal
Renewables
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Limited BioenergyBio-CCS – negative CO2
Nat-gas-CCSCoal-CCS
Source: Fricko et al, 2014
Global Water WithdrawalsA Transformational Pathway
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0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives
Tota
l Glo
bal P
olic
y Cos
ts (2
010-
2030
)
Source: McCollum et. al, 2012; IPCC, 2014
Multiple Benefits of Integrated Policies
2017 #11Nakicenovic
Japan – SDG Implementation Guiding Principles & Specific Measures to Achieve SDGs
2017 #12Nakicenovic
IIASA Research“Science must be at the heart of this process so as to help achieve synergies and avoid
conflicts among the 17 SDGs.”
IIASA Partnerships
Nexus Solutions Partnership
The World In 2050
Global CommonsCD-LINKS
Independent group of 15 scientists to draft the quadrennial GSDR (since Jan 2017)
Source: Alex Röhrl, UN DESA
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How to achieve global development within a safe and just operating space
“Safe space” of interaction among SDGs: sustainability narratives and integrated models e.g. SSP1, GEA, DDPP
Multiple-benefits and tradeoffs of transformation toward sustainable futures
The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)
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● Analysis, Integration and Modelling of the Earth System (AIMES) ● Brazilian Federal Agency for the Support and Evaluation of Graduate Education (CAPES)● Centre for Integrated Studies on Climate Change and the Environment (CIRED)● Climate Center Service Germany (GERICS)● Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO)● Earth League, whole Earth system modelling initiative● Earth Institute, Columbia University ● Energy Planning Program, COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro● Environmental Change Institute (ECI) at the University of Oxford ● Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)● Future Earth● Future Ocean● German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) ● Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)● International Energy Agency (IEA)● International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)● International Monetary Fund (IMF)● International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) ● Joint Research Centre, European Commission● Joint Global Change Research Institute at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (JGCRI/PNNL)● Millennium Institute● MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change ● National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)● National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)● National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) ● Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)● Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Change (PIK)● PBL - Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency● Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)● Stockholm Resilience Centre● Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN)● Tsinghua University● UN DESA● UNEP ● World Bank
The World in 2050 Consortium
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Vision: Sustainable Future
→ Growing number of actors of change:
• green businesses• cities• civil society• science• IGOs (UN etc.)
Incremental
Tran
sfor
mat
ion
Diff
usio
n
→ 2030: Achievement of SDGs
→ New values and norms
Radical TransformationalSource: After WBGU, 2011
Legitimacy of BAU eroding
→ 2050: Sustainability transformation
The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)“Doing More with Less” within Planetary Boundaries
2017 #18Nakicenovic
Vision: Sustainable Future
Incremental
Tran
sfor
mat
ion
Diff
usio
n
→ 2030: Achievement of SDGs
→ 2050: Sustainability transformation
→ New values and norms
Legitimacy of BAU eroding
Radical TransformationalSource: After WBGU, 2011
The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)“Doing More with Less” within Planetary Boundaries
2017 #19Nakicenovic
Darum geht zu allen Völkern […] und lehrt sie alles zu befolgen was ich Euch geboten habe. Seid gewiss: Ich bin bei euch alle Tage bis ans Ende der Welt.
Disruptive Change
Source: Campanale, Carobntracker