1 Using the TRIGRS Model to Predict Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides Over Large Areas Gioia, E....
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Transcript of 1 Using the TRIGRS Model to Predict Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides Over Large Areas Gioia, E....
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Using the TRIGRS Model to Predict Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides Over
Large AreasGioia, E.1, Speranza, G.2, Ferretti, M.2, Marincioni, F. 1,
Godt, J. W.3, and Baum, R. L.3
(1) Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, Marche Polytechnic University, Via BrecceBianche, Ancona, 60100, Italy, [email protected];
(2) Regional Forecast Center, Marche Region, Via del ColleAmeno 5, Ancona, 60126, Italy; (3) U.S. Geological Survey, Box 25046 MS 966, Denver, CO 80225-0046
EGU General Assembly 2014 May 2nd, 2014, Vienna
1. Introduction
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USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS
91%
9%
Landslides Floods
99% municipalities affected
(Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea - Report 2008)
(pictures courtesy of the
Marche Civil Protection)
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WARNING SYSTEM
FORECAST
EMERGENCY MANAGMENT
RECOVERY AND RESTORATION
PREVENTION
EVENT
USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS
1. Introduction
LANDSLIDES FORECAST
• Hydrological features;• Hydrogeological features;• Geomorphological features;• Geotechnical features;• Structural features.
• Antecedent rainfall (A) ;• Rainfall intensity (I) ;• Rainfall duration (D) :• Probability
EMPIRICAL MODELS
(STATISTICAL)
PHYSICAL MODELS
(DETERMINISTIC)
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USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS
1. Introduction
RANGE
c [kPa] c ≥ 0
[φ deg] > 0φ
ϒs [N m-3] ϒs > 0
D0 [m2 s-1] D0 > zmin
Ks [m s-1] Ks > 0
θr [-] θs > θr ≥ 0
θs [-] θs > 0
[α m-1] > 0α
𝑭𝒔=𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒄𝒆𝒔𝒅𝒓𝒊𝒗𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒄𝒆𝒔
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USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS
1. Introduction
TRIGRS(Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope Stability)
2. Study area
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USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS
THE POST-OROGENIC COMPLEX OF THE ESINO RIVER BASIN
LANDSLIDES (82) OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD 1990-2012
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3. Data collection
USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS
RAIN GAUGES USED FOR THE STUDY
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3. Data collection
USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS
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3. Data collection
USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS
CLAY SANDY-CLAY LOAM GRAVEL
44
29
63
LAN
DSL
IDE
FREQ
UEN
CY
LANDSLIDES TEXTURE CLASSES
BOX PLOT CHARTS OF CENTRAL TENDENCIES
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3. Data collection
USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS
SETTINGS
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STEP 1: TRIGRS calibration
USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS
4. Method
SETTINGS
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STEP 1: TRIGRS calibration
STEP 2: Outline test cases, choose the rainfall event, select the rain gauge and the rainfall intervals
USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS
4. Method
SETTINGS
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STEP 1: TRIGRS calibration
STEP 2: Outline test cases, choose the rainfall event, select the rain gauge and the rainfall intervals
STEP 3: Evaluate an “Antecedent Water Index”
USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS
4. Method
SETTINGS
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STEP 1: TRIGRS calibration
STEP 2: Outline test cases, choose the rainfall event, select the rain gauge and the rainfall intervals
STEP 3: Evaluate an “Antecedent Water Index”
STEP 4: Construct input grids of slope from a 20m DEM, property zones, rainfall input, soil depth and water table depth
USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS
4. Method
OCTOBER 1996 CASE STUDY
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USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS
5. Results
RECEIVER OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS (ROC) ANALYSIS
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USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS
5. Results
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USING THE TRIGRS MODEL TO PREDICT RAINFALL-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OVER LARGE AREAS
6. Conclusion
We presented an innovative methodology for the application of a
physical model (TRIGRS) for rainfall-induced shallow landslides
forecasting over broad areas.
TRIGRS well predicts the instabilities, thus can be used to build an
accurate susceptibility map;
Rainfall-induced landslides over large regions may be predicted
even where geotechnical and hydraulic properties data as well as
temporal changes in topography or subsurface conditions are not
available.
18… Thank you