11

Trade, Growth,Trade, Growth,and the Environmentand the Environment

Jeffrey FrankelJeffrey Frankel Harpel ProfessorHarpel Professor

Guest lecture: Rob Stavins class inEnvironmental & Resource Economics and Policy

April 29, 2013April 29, 2013

22

The anti-globalization movementThe anti-globalization movement

• In 1999, protestors at the Seattle WTO Ministerial meeting launched the first of the big anti-globalization demonstrations. Some wore turtle costumes.

• Why?

• They felt that a WTO panel had, in the name of free trade, negated the ability of the US to protect sea turtles,– simultaneously undermining

national sovereignty &– the international environment.

33

Central questionsCentral questions• Is trade good or bad for the environment?• Does globalization help or hurt,

in achieving the best tradeoff between environmental and economic goals?– Do international trade & investment

allow countries to achieve more economic growth for any given level of environmental quality?

– Or do they damage environmental quality for any given rate of economic growth?

• How can globalization best be harnessed?• Do the WTO & environment conflict?

– in particular, with respect to Climate Change policy?

44

Symmetric fearsSymmetric fears

• Free traders fear that environmental protection will be used as an excuse by some industries to gain protection for themselves against competition from abroad.

• Environmentalists fear that free trade will be used as an excuse to give inadequate weight to environmental goals, and excessive weight to GDP.

55

Widely agreed: openness to trade Widely agreed: openness to trade & other international activity is & other international activity is

good good for economic growthfor economic growth

• In theory: classical comparative advantage (e.g., Ricardo) & modern theories of trade based on imperfect competition (e.g., Krugman).

• Empirically: many econometric studies.

– E.g., one estimate: every .01 increase in a country’s trade/GDP ratio raises income 3 ½ % (over next 20 yrs.).

66

But what about effect of opennessBut what about effect of opennesson on environmental qualityenvironmental quality,,

which is not capturedwhich is not capturedin GDP statistics?in GDP statistics?

77

We care about We care about both both environmental environmental quality and quality and (market-reflected)(market-reflected) real income real income

Inequality e.g., as measured by

Gini coefficient

Income/capita

Income per capita →

• The objective, as always in economics: to attain the best “indifference curve” or “iso-welfare” curve possible, subject to technological constraints.

• But environmental externalities are the classic case where the free market will not deliver the optimal tradeoff point.– Such market failure calls for government intervention.– Government regulation, if optimally designed, can deliver

the optimum point (e.g., taxing pollution, not “command & control”).

•Environmental damage ↑ •

88

In practice, is growth In practice, is growth per seper se good good or bad for the environment?or bad for the environment?

• EnvironmentalKuznets Curve: Grossman and Krueger (1995)

Economic growth (whether trade-led or not) is good for the environment above a peak level of income.

– EKC is confirmed for some pollution measures, e.g., SO2,

– But generally rejected for CO2 .

Inequality e.g., as measured by

Gini coefficient

Income/capita

Environmental damage

Karen Clay & Werner Troesken, 2010. "Did Frederick Brodie Discover the World's First Environmental Kuznets Curve? Coal Smoke and the Rise and Fall of the London Fog," NBER WP 15669.

The first EKC: The London Fog (1730-1910), The first EKC: The London Fog (1730-1910), i.e., coal smoke i.e., coal smoke

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Is trade itself good or badIs trade itself good or badfor the environment?for the environment?

• There are many possible effects of trade.

• They can be categorized – according to whether they:

• (i) operate via GDP, just like investment, technology, and other sources of economic growth,

• or (ii) are peculiar to trade alone, and hold for a given level of GDP.

– Within each category, there are effects both• beneficial for the environment, • and detrimental.

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Is trade itself good or badIs trade itself good or badfor the for the environmentenvironment, in theory?, in theory?

Environmental effects of trade

via growth in income:

for a given level of income :

Environmental K.Curve

Harmful effects larger scale of economic activity

“Race to the bottom” in national regulation

Beneficial effects

shifts to cleaner techniques and composition of economic activity

“Gains from trade”: ratcheting up standards, consumer power, innovation…

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The feared “race to the bottom”• Environmental regulation raises the cost of doing business.

• Industry & labor worry about international competition.

• The more open is a country to trade, the more pressure will they exert on their government to reduce the regulatory burden. • E.g., Barrett (1994)

There are also fears that trade willaffect the allocation of pollution across countries

The “pollution haven” hypothesis:• trade encourages some countries to specialize in producing dirtier goods:

• poorer countries• more capital-intensive countries• or less densely populated countries.

• E.g., Levinson & Taylor (2004)

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Globalization

Protectionism

The impossible trinity of global environmental regulation

Environmental standards

National sovereignty

Unregulated emissions

Multilateral governance

RACE TO THE

BOTTOM

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Some examples of trade Some examples of trade helpinghelping environment environment

• Imports of environmentally friendly products – US ended 1980s tariffs & quotas on fuel-efficient Japanese autos,

benefiting both consumer pocketbook & air quality– Imports of cheap solar panels from China could do the same,

• but are impeded by “anti-dumping” tariffs in US (2012) & EU (2013).–

• Trade brings technological innovation, which can, for example, save energy.

• MNCs bring global standards to where the local alternative is environmentally (even) less friendly.

• Consumers can express enviro preferences via buying habits, e.g. “dolphin-free” labeling on tuna achieved its purpose.

• Multilateral agreements– Potential for trade sanctions, as in Montreal Protocol

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More economic/environmentalMore economic/environmental win-win ideaswin-win ideas

• Remove barriers to imports of environmental goods– USG proposal for Doha round: liberalize capital equipment

& services used in environmental sector– US could let in imports of Brazil’s sugar/ethanol,

again hitting multiple goals.

• A global ban on subsidies to fossil fuels would achieve both enviro goal of reducing carbon emissions and economists’ goals of reducing deficit spending& an economic distortion.

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Which tend to dominate in practice:Which tend to dominate in practice:

• The effects of trade that are detrimental to the environment (e.g., race to the bottom)?

• Or the effects of trade that are beneficial (e.g., US imports of fuel-efficient autos)?

• It depends on what measure of environmental quality is at stake.

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SOSO22 concentrations tend to fall with openness concentrations tend to fall with openness,,especially after controlling for democracyespecially after controlling for democracy,, cross-country cross-country

High-democracy

Low-democracy

= Trade/GDP

Democracy matters too => need effective national regulation, not just demand for clean environment.

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COCO22 emissions/cap tend, emissions/cap tend, if anything,if anything,

to to riserise with openness with openness

CO2 Emissions vs. Trade Openness (ave data 1991 and 1992)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 100 200 300 400

Trade Openness

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

pe

r C

ap

ita

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But these rough correlations tell us little.But these rough correlations tell us little.

• To isolate the effect of trade on a country’s environment, we need to control for other determinants, such as– income– democracy– population density.

• Econometric analysis – Antweiler, Copeland & Taylor Antweiler, Copeland & Taylor (2001); (2001); Copeland & TaylorCopeland & Taylor (2004, 05) (2004, 05)

– Frankel & Rose Frankel & Rose (2004)(2004)

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Environmental quality equationEnvironmental quality equation Source: Frankel & Rose, Source: Frankel & Rose, R.Ec.& StatsR.Ec.& Stats., 2004., 2004

ii

ii

ii

i

eCapLandArea

DemocracyYMX

popYpopY

Enviro

,90

,90,90

2,9022,90110

)/(

)()/]([

)/()/(

IV for GDP/cap: investment, education…IV for openness: geographically-based prediction of trade

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Is trade itself good or badIs trade itself good or badfor the environment, statistically?for the environment, statistically?

Source: Frankel & Rose Source: Frankel & Rose (2004)(2004)

Environmental effects of trade (1990)

via growth in income:

for a given level of income:

for SO2

concentrations

EKC: after an income of about $5,700/cap., further growth tends to reduce pollution

(via national regulation)

The favorable effects of trade seem to dominate

for CO2

emissions / capita

No sign that total emissions turn down.

(CO2 is a global externality:

little regulation is possible at the national level.)

Trade may also increase emissions even for a given level of income

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Do harmful or beneficial effects of trade dominate Do harmful or beneficial effects of trade dominate for environmental goals? Bottom lines:for environmental goals? Bottom lines:

• For SO2 – at low incomes, harmful effects (EKC) work

against beneficial effects – at high levels of income, trade helps through

both channels.

• For CO2 – Even at high levels of income, trade continues

to hurt. <= Absent an effective multilateral treaty, the popular will cannot be enacted.

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The anti-globalizationThe anti-globalization movement: movement:the first big protests in the first big protests in Seattle, 1999Seattle, 1999

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What do the anti-globalizers meanWhat do the anti-globalizers meanwhen they say the WTO is when they say the WTO is

an intrusive undemocratic bureaucracy?an intrusive undemocratic bureaucracy?

• Its governance? = the member-country governments.– Technically one-country one-vote.– True, US & EU have disproportionate weight.

But making it more democratic means giving more weight to India. Result: Policy gives lower priority to the environment.

• The Articles of Agreement? Hard to object to, as we will see.

• The WTO staff? A few thousand powerless technocrats working in a building on Lake Geneva.

• WTO panel rulings that interpret the rules? That must be it.

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Typical WTO panel casesTypical WTO panel cases

• Tariffs or other measures that discriminate against producers in some trading partners,

– either in favor of other trading partners

(potential violation of MFN principle of Article I) or

– in favor of “like products” from domestic producers (potential violation of national treatment provision of Article III).

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Typical WTO panel cases,Typical WTO panel cases, continuedcontinued

• If a targeted country files a WTO complaint alleging such a violation, the question is whether the measure is permissible under Article XX – which allows for exceptions to the non-discrimination

principles for environmental reasons (XXb), – provided that the measures in question are not “a

means of arbitrary or unjustifiable discrimination” nor a “disguised restriction on international trade.”

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Mutual respectMutual respect

• Drafters in Kyoto and Genevashowed more consideration for each other than the rank & file of environmentalists and free traders.

• The Kyoto Protocol text: – Parties should “strive to implement policies and

measures...to minimize adverse effects on international trade...” ;

– UNFCCC features similar language

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Mutual respect,Mutual respect, continuedcontinued

• WTO regime is equally solicitous of the environment:– Article XX allows exceptions for health &

conservation.– Preamble to 1995 Marrakesh Agreement

establishing WTO seeks “to protect and preserve the environment;”

– 2001 Doha Communiqué starting new round of negotiations: “the aims of ... open and non-discriminatory trading system, and acting for the protection of the environment ... must be mutually supportive.”

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The Kyoto ProtocolThe Kyoto Protocolwas in my view a useful foundation. But it lacked:was in my view a useful foundation. But it lacked:

• Provisions for emission targets in future years

• Targets for US, China & other developing countries

• An enforcement mechanism– including an incentive for holdouts to join, and– enforcement of the agreement.– Some ask:

Could trade sanctions be the mechanism?

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Would carbon-import penalties be Would carbon-import penalties be compatible with the WTO?compatible with the WTO?

Question (1):

GHG emissions are generated by so-called Processes and Production Methods (PPMs). Does that rule out trade measures against them?

Question (2):

What specific trade control design is appropriate?

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Precedent (1): Montreal Protocol on Precedent (1): Montreal Protocol on stratospheric ozone depletionstratospheric ozone depletion

• Trade controls had two motivations: – (1) to encourage countries to join, and

– (2) if major countries had remained outside, would have minimized leakage, the migration of production of banned substances to nonparticipating countries.

– In the event (1) worked, so (2) not needed.

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Precedent (2): The true meaning of the Precedent (2): The true meaning of the 1998 WTO panel shrimp-turtle decision1998 WTO panel shrimp-turtle decision

• New ruling: environmental measures can target, not only exported products (Article XX), but also partners’ Processes & Production Methods (PPMs),

• subject, as always, to non-discrimination (Articles I & III).

• US was able to proceed to protect turtles, without discrimination against Asian fishermen.

• Environmentalists failed to notice or consolidate the PPM precedent.

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Precedent (3): In case there is any doubt that Precedent (3): In case there is any doubt that Article XX, which uses the phrase “health and Article XX, which uses the phrase “health and conservation,” applies to climate change, …conservation,” applies to climate change, …

• a 3rd precedent is relevant:• In 2007, a WTO Appellate Body decision regarding

Brazilian restrictions on imports of retreaded tires confirmed the applicability of Article XX(b):

• Rulings “accord considerable flexibility to WTO Member governments when they take trade-restrictive measures to protect life or health… [and] apply equally to … measures taken to combat global warming.”

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• Central message: border measures to address leakage need not necessarily violate sensible trade principles or the WTO,– but there is a great danger that they will in practice.

• The big danger: If each country imposes border measures in whatever way suits national politics, – they will be poorly targeted, discriminatory,

and often disguisedly protectionist;– they will run afoul of the WTO, and will deserve to.

• We need a multilateral regime to guide such measures.

• Some subjective judgments as to principles that should guide design of border measures….

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What form should border measures take?What form should border measures take?

1. Best choice: multilateral penalties. (Not likely.)

2. Next-best: national sanctions adopted under multilateral guidelines

1. Penalties can only be applied by participants-in-good standing

2. Judgments to be made by technical experts, not politicians

3. Penalties only in 6 or 8 of the most relevant sectors (aluminum, steel,…).

3. Third: No border measures.

4. Each country chooses carbon tariffs as it sees fit.

5. Worst choice: national measures are subsidies (e.g., free permits) to adversely affected firms.

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Summary of conclusionsSummary of conclusions

• Has globalization damaged the environment– through a “race to the bottom” in regulation?

• Empirical studies of cross-country data find no detrimental effects of trade on some measures of environmental degradation such as SO2 air pollution, controlling for income.

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Summary of conclusions,Summary of conclusions, continuedcontinued

• Thus globalization and the environment need not necessarily be in conflict. – Trade & growth give countries the means to

clean the air, • provided they have effective institutions of

governance in place.• For local air pollution, the appropriate

governance is at the national level.

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Summary of conclusions,Summary of conclusions, continuedcontinued

• But the evidence does suggest that trade & growth can exacerbate other measures of environmental degradation, particularly CO2 emissions.

• The difference can be explained by the observation that CO2 is a global externality– which cannot be addressed at the national level

due to the free rider problem. – We need institutions of governance at the multilateral level.– These are not in place.

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The solutionThe solution

• Greater international cooperation on environmental and trade issues,

• so that we can get the best of both.

• Very specific example: the UNFCCC or (more likely) the WTO should agree on guidelines for penalties on carbon-intensive imports that countries are allowed to impose on each other.

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The author acknowledgesThe author acknowledges

• capable research assistance by Danxia Xie;

• valuable input from Joseph Aldy, Scott Barrett, Jagdish Bhagwati, Thomas Brewer, Steve Charnovitz, Arik Levinsohn, Gary Sampson & Robert Stavins;

• useful comments on the first draft from Pontus Braunerhjelm, Prasanth Regy, Rob Stavins, Helena Svaleryd, and Danxia Xie;

• and support from – the Harvard Program on International Climate Agreements

– a Faculty Grant in Sustainability Science from Harvard’s Center for International Development,

– as well as from the Government of Sweden.

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Writings underlying this lectureWritings underlying this lectureavailable at http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~jfrankel/currentpubsspeeches.htmavailable at http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~jfrankel/currentpubsspeeches.htm

• "Global Environment and Trade Policy," Post-Kyoto International Climate Policy, edited by Joe Aldy & Rob Stavins; Cambridge Univ. Press, 2009.  

• “Environmental Effects of International Trade,”A Report for the Swedish Globalisation Council, Government of Sweden, 2009. HKS RWP 09-006.  

• The Leakage/Competitiveness Issue In Climate Change Policy Proposals,” in Climate Change, Trade and Investment: Is a Collision Inevitable?, Brookings Institution Press, Washington, DC, 2009,Lael Brainard, ed..  WCFIA WP 4792.

• "Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment?  Sorting out the Causality" with Andrew Rose, Review of Economics & Statistics 87, no.1, 2005. NBER WP No. 9201 

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AppendicesAppendices

1. Frankel-Rose econometrics

2. A possible conflict between the WTO and the Climate Change regime:border measures. Suggested guidelines for carbon-intensive import penalties.

3. Why did the Seattle protestors march together in 1999?

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Appendix 1: Frankel & Rose paperAppendix 1: Frankel & Rose paper

• Equations estimated:

– Growth equation (using gravity variable as IV for trade openness)

– Environmental quality equation (using factor endowments as IV for growth)

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Construction of IV for opennessConstruction of IV for openness

First-stage regression of gravity equation• log(Tradeij/GDPi) = - .94 log(distanceij) + .82 log(popj) + .53 Langij

(.05) (.02) (.11)

+ .64 Borderij - .27 log(AiAj) - .47 # Landlockedij + uij

(.21) (.01) (.08)

• Equation estimated for 1990. • Number of Obs. = 4052.• R2 = .28 (Robust standard errors in parentheses.)

Computation of Instrumental Variable• Take exponent of fitted values of bilateral trade and sum across

bilateral trading partners: j exp [Fitted log(Tradeij/GDPi) ] .• Correlation (trade ratio, generated IV) = .72

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Measures of environmental damageMeasures of environmental damage

• SO2: sulphur dioxide, mean (in micograms per cubic meter), 1995• NO2: nitrogen dioxide, mean (in micograms per cubic meter), 1995• PM: Suspended Particulate Matter, mean total (in micograms per

cubic meter), 1995• Water: Rural Access to Clean Water• Def: annual deforestation, average percentage change, 1990-95• Energy: Energy depletion, in percent of GDP (“genuine savings”)[1]• CO2/capita: Carbon dioxide emissions, industrial, in metric tons/cap

[1] Energy depletion is a measure computed for the World Bank’s World Development Indicators. It is equal to the product of unit resource rents and the physical quantities of fossil fuel energy extracted (including coal, crude oil, and natural gas). Table 3.15, http://www.worldbank.org/data/wdi2001/pdfs/tab3_15.pdf.

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I updated the Frankel-Rose econometric analysisI updated the Frankel-Rose econometric analysis

-- putting together data for 1990-2004,

– for 158 countries.

• EKC (inverted U) shows up for PM10 and water pollution.

• Trade still appears to worsen CO2.• Again, the obvious explanation: the lack of

a comprehensive global climate agreement.

• in a 2009 paper for the Swedish Globalisation Council

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Appendix 2:Will the global climate regime

collide with the global trade regime?

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Leakage and lost competitivenessLeakage and lost competitiveness= w= what “unfairness” means in hat “unfairness” means in richrich countries countries

Could border measures give non-participants incentive to join, and level the playing field in the meantime?

– Yes, in theory.

– If properly designed, they could even be WTO-consistent,• building on precedents• and D-G Lamy speeches (Nov. 2009).

– In practice, however, border measures written by politicians will almost certainly be discriminatory, WTO-inconsistent, and undermining of climate goals.

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Possible application of trade barriersPossible application of trade barriers by US climate change legislation:by US climate change legislation:

• Climate Change bills in Congress

have contained trade measures: – requiring permits for energy-intensive imports – or granting allowances to affected industries.

• Washington might not realize that the US could qualify to be the victim of legal

sanctions before it is the wielder of them.

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Possible application of trade barriersPossible application of trade barriers by EUby EU::

Directive of the European Parliament Directive of the European Parliament & of the Council, & of the Council, Paragraph 13,Paragraph 13, amending Directive 2003/87/EC so as to improve and extend amending Directive 2003/87/EC so as to improve and extend the EU greenhouse gas emissions allowance trading system; Brussels, 2008:the EU greenhouse gas emissions allowance trading system; Brussels, 2008:

• “Energy-intensive industries which are determined to be exposed to significant risk of carbon leakage could receive a higher amount of free allocation, or

• an effective carbon equalization system could be introduced with a view to putting EU and non-EU producers on a comparable footing. Such a system could apply to importers of goods requirements similar to those applicable to installations within the EU, by requiring the surrender of allowances.”

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Appropriate border adjustments could be tariffs Appropriate border adjustments could be tariffs or, or, equivalently, a requirement that importers surrender tradable permits.equivalently, a requirement that importers surrender tradable permits.

Guiding principles include:Guiding principles include:

• Measures should follow guidelines multilaterally-agreed among countries participating in the targets of KP & its successors.

• Judgments as to findings of fact (who is complying, etc.) should be made by independent expert panels.

• Measures should only be applied by countries that cut their own emissions in line with the KP & its successors, against countries not doing so due to either refusal to join or failure to comply.

• Import penalties should target fossil fuels, and a half dozen of the most energy-intensive major industries: aluminum, cement, steel, paper, glass, iron & chemicals.

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I classify characteristics of possible border I classify characteristics of possible border

measures into 3 categories, named by color:measures into 3 categories, named by color:

(1) “White” category: those that seem reasonable & appropriate.

(2) “Black” category: those that seem dangerous, in that they are likely to become an excuse for protectionism.

(3) “Grey” category:

those that fall in between.

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French President Sarkozy:French President Sarkozy:

• “…if large economies of the world do not engage in binding commitments to reduce emissions, European industry will have incentives to relocate to such countries…The introduction of a parallel mechanism for border compensation against imports from countries that refuse to commit to binding reductions therefore appears essential,– whether in the form of a tax adjustment or – an obligation to buy permits by importers.

• This mechanism is in any case necessary in order to induce those countries to agree on such a commitment.” letter to Barroso, January 2008

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Black (inappropriate) border Black (inappropriate) border measures include:measures include:

• Unilateral measures applied by countries that are not participating in the Kyoto Protocol or its successors.

• Judgments as to findings of fact made by politicians, vulnerable to pressure from interest groups for protection.

• Unilateral measures to sanction an entire country.• Import barriers against products that are removed from

the carbon-intensive activity, such as firms that use inputs that are produced in an energy-intensive process.

• Subsidies -- whether in the form of money or extra permit allocations -- to domestic sectors that are considered to have been put at a competitive disadvantage.

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US Energy Independence & Security Act 2007US Energy Independence & Security Act 2007

• “limits US government procurement of alternative fuel to those from which the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions are equal to or less than those from conventional fuel from conventional petroleum sources.” Canada’s oil sands are vulnerable. (Section 526)

Source: FT, Mar. 10, 2008

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The Gray (intermediate)The Gray (intermediate)measures include:measures include:

• Unilateral measures that are applied in the interim before there has been time for multilateral negotiation over a set of guidelines for border measures.

The import penalties might follow the form of existing legislation on countervailing duties (CVDs).

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Appendix 3: Appendix 3: Why did the protestors Why did the protestors march together in Seattle?march together in Seattle?

Categoryof demon-

strator

Claimedconsti-tuency

True positionof constituency

Protestor in turtle costume

Environ-ment

In favor of the Kyoto Protocol

Labor union official

Organized labor

Against the Kyoto protocol; in favor of keeping out cheap imports from poor countries.

NGO volunteer

Poor countries

In favor of those exports to rich countries; in favor of Kyoto protocol only if it exempts them.

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