1 The People of the San Joaquin Valley Hans Johnson Public Policy Institute of California...
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1 PPIC The People of the San Joaquin Valley Hans Johnson Public Policy Institute of California [email protected]
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1 PPIC
The People of the San Joaquin Valley
Hans JohnsonPublic Policy Institute of California
2 PPIC
The People of the San Joaquin Valley
· Demographic trends
· Economic characteristics
· Looking ahead
3 PPIC
Regional Definitions
Upper Sacramento Valley
Sacramento Metro
Central and SouthernSan Joaquin Valley
NorthernSan Joaquin Valley
4 PPIC
Central Valley Population1900-2010
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
San Joaquin Valley: 4 million in 2010
5 PPIC
Comparisons of Population Change1970 population = 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
San Joaquin Valley
Central Valley
Rest of California
Rest of US
6 PPIC
Comparisons of Population Change1970 population = 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
San Joaquin Valley
Central Valley
Rest of California
Rest of US
7 PPIC
Accommodating Urban Development Scenario: Continued Urban Growth
8 PPIC
Accommodating urban development Scenario: Continued Urban Growth
9 PPIC
Prime Farmland Conservation Scenario Severely Constrains Growth
10 PPIC
Prime Farmland Conservation Scenario Severely Constrains Growth
11 PPIC
Ethnic Composition of Valley Sub-Regions
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SacramentoValley
SacramentoMetro
San JoaquinValley
Multiracial
American Indian
African American
Asian and PacificIslander
Latino
White
12 PPIC
Immigrants come to the SJ Valley from all over the world
Leading Countries of Origin
Mexico 591,049 Philippines 48,154 India 42,890 Central America 33,928 Laos 20,150 China 12,953 Thailand 11,309 Vietnam 10,771 Portugal 10,483 South America 9,455 Cambodia 8,980 Africa 7,153 Iran 6,845 Canada 6,041 Korea 5,567 Pacific Islands 5,126
13 PPIC
The People of the San Joaquin Valley
· Demographic trends
· Economic characteristics
· Looking ahead
14 PPIC
Educational attainment levels are low
Not a high school
graduate
High school graduate
Some college Bachelor's degree or
more
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
26.7%
25.0%
32.1%
16.3%17.3%
19.8%
30.4%
32.6%
San Joaquin ValleyRest of California
15 PPIC
Unemployment rates are high
12.7
10.3
16 PPIC
Growing Apart:Regional Per Capita Income Relative to State (100 = State PCI; 1969-2009)
Source: Hans Johnson, PPIC, based on US Bureau of Economic Analysis data19
69
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Bay AreaOrange CountySan DiegoCentral CoastLos Angeles CountySacramento MetroSierrasFar NorthSan Joaquin ValleyInland Empire
17 PPIC
The People of the San Joaquin Valley
· Demographic trends
· Economic characteristics
· Looking ahead
18 PPIC
Policy Issues
· Rapid growth of a diverse population
· Educational and income inequities reinforced through migration
· Worker training and economic development to retain high skill workers
19 PPIC
Opportunities
• Education is the key to economic well-being
• The valley has a youthful population
• Programs and policies that affect youth are most promising
20 PPIC
The People of the San Joaquin Valley
Hans JohnsonPublic Policy Institute of California
21 PPIC
Population Projections for the San Joaquin Valley
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
Northern San Joaquin Valley
Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley
Northern San Joaquin Valley 1,221,149 1,583,915 2,004,134 2,412,236 2,829,439
Central and Southern San JoaquinValley
2,081,643 2,512,696 2,977,232 3,506,419 4,069,252
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
22 PPIC
Poverty rate, 2005
Very High (20+)High (15-19.9)Moderate (10-14.9)Low (<10)
