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Transcript of 1 The Economic Outlook for Connecticut Rae D. Rosen Senior Economist and Assistant Vice - President...
1
The Economic Outlook for Connecticut
Rae D. RosenSenior Economist and Assistant Vice - President
Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkSeptember 9, 2004
1
2
Key Points:
• Connecticut’s economy appears to be turning.
• The recovery has been slower than expected.
• Modest job growth (less than one percent) is
projected for 2005.
1
3
Second District Unemployment Rates
July 2003 July 2004
United States 6.2% 5.5%
Massachusetts 5.8% 5.3%
New York City 8.4% 7.5%Connecticut 5.7% 4.6%
Hartford 6.1% 5.1%
Stamford 3.7% 2.9%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
8
4
New York
ConnecticutNew Jersey
Massachusetts
CT to NJ 3,000NJ to CT 3,200
Workers That Commute fromOutside Area of Residence
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census of Population.C
T t
o M
A
14,0
00M
A t
o C
T
27,0
00
NJ
to N
Y
335,
000
NY
to
NJ
126
,000
CT to NY 6
0,000
NY to CT 4
1,000
MA to NY 5,000NY to MA 6,000
17
5
Recent Trends in Regional EmploymentPercent change from 12 months earlier
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
Percent Percent
United States
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations.
United States Jul. '04 1.3%Connecticut Jul. '04 0.0%
Connecticut
18
6
Recent Trends in Regional EmploymentPercent change from 12 months earlier
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
Percent Percent
United States
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations.
United States Jul. '04 1.3%Connecticut Jul. '04 0.0%Hartford Jul. '04 -1.4%
Connecticut
Hartford
19
7
Recent Trends in Regional EmploymentPercent change from 12 months earlier
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
Percent Percent
United States
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations.
United States Jul. '04 1.3%Connecticut Jul. '04 0.0%Hartford Jul. '04 -1.4%Stamford Jul. '04 0.0%
Connecticut
Stamford
Hartford
20
8
2,500
4,000
5,500
7,000
8,500
9/7/01 2/7/02 7/10/02 12/10/02 5/12/03 10/12/03 3/13/04 8/13/04
2,500
4,000
5,500
7,000
8,500sadj. 4 - week
CT Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Seasonally Adjusted
Claims
Source: Connecticut Department of Labor.
Claims
9
9
Personal IncomePercent change from 4 quarters earlier
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
Percent
United States
New York
United States 2004 Q1 5.2%New York 2004 Q1 5.5%Connecticut 2004 Q1 3.8%Percent
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations.
Connecticut
12
10
Consumer Price IndexPercent change from 12 months earlier
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
Percent Percent
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
United States
United States - Services
U.S. Jul. '04 3.0%U.S. - Durable Goods Jul. '04 -2.8%U.S. - Services Jul. '04 3.0%NY/NE Jul. '04 3.9%
United States - Durable Goods
7
11
Growth in Service Jobs% change July 2004 / July 2003
U.S. Connecticut Stamford Hartford
Professional & Business 3.4 -1.0 -0.7 1.6
Security/Commodity Broker 4.1 3.4 N/A N/A
Leisure and Hospitality 1.5 3.5 3.9 2.5
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation -1.0 6.0 N/A N/A
Accomodation And Food 2.0 2.7 -1.8 3.7 Eating and Drinking 2.4 3.4 N/A 1.9 Accommodations 0.0 -2.3 N/A N/A
Health and Social 2.2 0.6 3.1 0.8Educational 2.2 1.4 N/A N/A
All Services 1.3 0.2 0.4 -0.6Services as % of Total Employment 83.0 84.0 91.7 84.5
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY Calculations.
Note: U.S. data are for August 2004. 21
12
Growth in Service Jobs% change from July 2004 to July 2003
US Connecticut Stamford NYCProfessional & Business 3.4 -1.0 -0.7 3.0
Security/Commodity Broker 4.1 3.4 n/a 0.1Accommodation 0 -2.3 n/a 7.8Eating and Drinking 2.4 3.4 n/a 3.7Motion Pictures 4.1 n/a n/a 13.8Architecture & Engineering 3.8 1.6 n/a 1.4Health and Social 2.2 0.6 3.1 1.7Educational 2.2 1.4 n/a -0.1Amusement -0.6 5.7 n/a 3.1Legal 1.2 1.3 n/a 2.8Total Services 1.3 0.2 0.4 1.4Services as % of Total Employment 83.0 84.0 91.7 93.6
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Connecticut Department of Labor, FRBNY Calculations.
*Data for Eating & Drinking and Accommodation are combined at a higher NAICS level and reported as Accommodation. Note: U.S. date are for August 2004. 22
13
Growth in Service Jobs% change from July 2004 to July 2003
US Connecticut Stamford NYCProfessional & Business 3.4 -1.0 -0.7 3.0
Security/Commodity Broker 4.1 3.4 n/a 0.1Accommodation 0 -2.3 n/a 7.8Eating and Drinking 2.4 3.4 n/a 3.7Motion Pictures 4.1 n/a n/a 13.8Architecture & Engineering 3.8 1.6 n/a 1.4Health and Social 2.2 0.6 3.1 1.7Educational 2.2 1.4 n/a -0.1Amusement -0.6 5.7 n/a 3.1Legal 1.2 1.3 n/a 2.8Total Services 1.3 0.2 0.4 1.4Services as % of Total Employment 83.0 84.0 91.7 93.6
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Connecticut Department of Labor, FRBNY Calculations.
*Data for Eating & Drinking and Accommodation are combined at a higher NAICS level and reported as Accommodation. Note: U.S. date are for August 2004. 23
14
Growth in Service Jobs% change from July 2004 to July 2003
US Connecticut Stamford NYCProfessional & Business 3.4 -1.0 -0.7 3.0
Security/Commodity Broker 4.1 3.4 n/a 0.1Accommodation 0 -2.3 n/a 7.8Eating and Drinking 2.4 3.4 n/a 3.7Motion Pictures 4.1 n/a n/a 13.8Architecture & Engineering 3.8 1.6 n/a 1.4Health and Social 2.2 0.6 3.1 1.7Educational 2.2 1.4 n/a -0.1Amusement -0.6 5.7 n/a 3.1Legal 1.2 1.3 n/a 2.8Total Services 1.3 0.2 0.4 1.4Services as % of Total Employment 83.0 84.0 91.7 93.6
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Connecticut Department of Labor, FRBNY Calculations.
*Data for Eating & Drinking and Accommodation are combined at a higher NAICS level and reported as Accommodation. Note: U.S. date are for August 2004. 24
15
Office Vacancy RatesQuarterly
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Percent Percent
Source: Coldwell Banker.
United States-Metropolitan
Metropolitan Stamford
Note: Q2 2004 Overall Office Vacancy rate for Hartford was 18.2%. Source: Cushman and Wakefield.
Metropolitan NYC
Hartford
25
16
Home PricesPercent change from 4 quarters earlier
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Percent Percent
Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.
United States
New York
United States 2004 Q2 9.4%New York 2004 Q2 11.0%Connecticut 2004 Q2 10.7%
Connecticut
26
17
Connecticut Net Migration
-20,000
-18,000
-16,000
-14,000
-12,000
-10,000
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-20,000
-18,000
-16,000
-14,000
-12,000
-10,000
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
Returns Returns
Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income.
13
18
Connecticut Migration
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 200360,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Returns Returns
Connecticut In
Connecticut Out
Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income.11 14
19
Net Domestic and International MigrationApril 1990 to July 1999
Net Domestic Migration
Net International Migration
Connecticut -226,370 73,389
New York -1,888,936 1,107,814
New Jersey -378,495 377,830
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census.
1215
20
Net Domestic and International MigrationApril 2000 to July 2003
Net Domestic Migration
Net International Migration
Connecticut -9,220 50,574
New York -551,672 442,800
New Jersey -92,699 192,044
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census.
16
21
65 and over
55 to 64
45 to 5435 to 44
16 to 24
25 to 34
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
US Workforce by Age2003 and 2012
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Age of Workers4
22
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Age of Workers
16 - 2416 - 24 25 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64 65 and older
Growth in US Workforce by AgePercent Change from 2003 - 2012
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Percent
2
23
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Age of Workers
16 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 5455 - 64
65 and older
Growth in US Workforce by AgeChange in Number of Workers from 2003 - 2012
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.5