1 The Chronocomplexity of Actionable Intelligence Gus Koehler Time Structures .

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The Chronocomplexity of Actionable Intelligence

Gus Koehler

Time Structures

http://www.battlespaceonline.org/eros-hoagland/ramadi-iraq-2007-02.shtml

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Overview• The Policy Working Group’s focus is on blocking structures as wicked problems that impede the creation and

movement of actionable intelligence or military technology to the soldier and from the soldier via network centric technology

• This presentation looks at how networks, structures and their boundaries—including blocks—are created and maintained by the chronocomplexity of policy decisions that regulate the movement of information, energy, and resources. Such relationships are likely to produce wicked problems

• It is changes in the alignment of barriers and related opening-closing of policy or opportunity windows that creates opportunities. What are such windows and why do they occur? Is there a special role for the policy entrepreneur?

• We will use the term time-ecology to refer to the networks, and heterochrony to refer to the complex flow of resources, energy, and information.

• Issues are:

– What chronocomplexity related factors contribute to the dynamics of wicked problems that block the movement of military-technology and intelligence to their operational use by a soldier?

– How is a policy entrepreneur able to enter, assess, anticipate, and influence the behavior of such a Chronocomplex system using policy windows?

– How is a policy windows opened in a chronocomplex system to produce and communicate actionable

intelligence or technology when we want to a soldier?

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Actionable Intelligence is Dynamic, meaning it involves Time and Trickery

• “Actionable Intelligence is providing commanders and soldiers a level of situational understanding, delivered with speed, accuracy, and timeliness, in order to conduct successful operations”

• “Actionable intelligence is not perfect intelligence, as its an expedient intelligence, particularly in terms of being delivered in an expedient way or not”

• Operations involve a strategy of “tricking” the enemy with well timed and informed tactics into taking a vulnerable position or to prevent us from being so tricked.

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Battlefield and Administrative Strategy involve Timing, Cunning, and Sometimes

Trickery

“In strategy there are various timing considerations. From the outset you must know the applicable timing and the inapplicable timing, and from among the large and small things and fast and slow timings find the relevant timing, first seeing the distance timing and the background timing. This is the main strategy, otherwise your strategy will become uncertain. You win in battles with the timing…of cunning by the knowing the enemies’ timing, and thus using a timing which the enemy does not expect.” Shinmen Musashi, A Book of Five Rings (1645).

To trick someone is to destroy their boundaries. It is to destroy a boundary’s edge by confusing a distinction they are making and the timing they are using to establish and carry it out. Simultaneously, it is the creation of a new boundary, a new distinction, a reshaping of the world. Here we are talking about breaking the boundary of the enemy’s strategy, of the formation they are using and its timing to create a new battlefield where they no longer exist. Lewis Hyde, Trickster Makes the World (1998).

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What is a Time Ecology and Why is it Important?

• The complex parallel activities, innovation, and feed back relationships of battlefield, simulations, intelligence technology business and services, and legislative processes continuously organize the evolution of the actionable intelligence cluster from top to bottom

• The full range of linear and nonlinear time/space networked linkages of the battlefield-network-

intelligence technology complex creates an interconnected ecology—a time-ecology—of growth regulating unique, more or less intense, and often complex rhythmic pulses that occur in parallel sometimes in sync across multiple time scales flowing at varying rates out of the past, through the present and into the future

• Heterochrony regulates each of the three fundamental elements of growth—size, development, and time—leading to variation in a descendant network, organization, or individual body.

• Small changes to a component can affect rates of flow, feeding forward or back, varying the

entire time-ecology's heterochronic pattern

• A time-ecology of networked flows could continuously give rise, through appropriately or inappropriately timed interventions to a complex and often emergent aggregate structure—a wicked problem—that could not be predicted from its parts.

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A Battle of Time Ecologies: Navy Asymmetric Persian Gulf War Game

• THE GAME: Van Riper had at his disposal a computer-generated flotilla of small boats and planes, many of them civilian, which he kept buzzing around the virtual Persian Gulf in circles as the game was about to get under way. As the US fleet entered the Gulf, Van Riper gave a signal - not in a radio transmission that might have been intercepted, but in a coded message broadcast from the minarets of mosques at the call to prayer. The seemingly harmless pleasure craft and propeller planes suddenly turned deadly, ramming into Blue boats and airfields along the Gulf in scores of al-Qaida-style suicide attacks. Meanwhile, Chinese Silkworm-type cruise missiles fired from some of the small boats sank the US fleet's only aircraft carrier and two marine helicopter carriers. The tactics were reminiscent of the al-Qaida attack on the USS Cole in Yemen two years ago, but the Blue fleet did not seem prepared. Sixteen ships were sunk altogether, along with thousands of marines. If it had really happened, it would have been the worst naval disaster since Pearl Harbor.

• TIMING: Islamic communication, surprise, inconsistent with US expectations, took advantage of slow background timing of US, used rapid space-time defining movements of small boats

• TRICKERY: Rapidly moving small, maneuverable boats and planes overcame US Navy ship defensive organization with boundary penetrating strategies. US Navy boundary chopped up into smaller pieces involving multiple new boundaries and new very local rather than extended space-time.

"A phrase Van Riper heard over and over and responded to: 'That would never have happened. And I said: nobody would have thought that anyone would fly an airliner into the World Trade Centre . . . but nobody seemed interested."

• SUMMARY:• Timing and Trickery succeeded on the battlefield in breaking and creating new space-time boundaries• Disconnect between this activity, its communication and interpretation at higher organizational levels who had their

own notion of time and boundary maintenance. The message did not make it up.

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Operations: “Tricking” the Enemy in Two Time-Ecologies

Time Structures

Bagdad Time Ecology: flat, high population density, many housing and commercial buildings, roads, ethnic groups conflict, intense street to street fighting, building to building fire fights, snipers, IUD, city business-market-school time, rapid communications on both sides (TV, face to face, radios, cell phones, visual, etc)

Afghan-Pakistan Border time-ecology: mountainous, low population density, few housing and commercial buildings, dirt roads, trails, and very local ethnic groups, bandit-war lord-drug lord control, point to point communications, runners to communicate face to face, agrarian time, armored vehicles, extreme flight problems, sudden fire fights, snipers, IUDs, etc.

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The Intelligence-Technology-Battlefield Time-Ecology

Battlefield• Personal• Line of sight• Natural-interface• Survival and Real-time• Timing• Trickery

Virtual Simulation• Idealized-unnatural• Non-Biological/addictive• Computer icon• Avatar life/death• Real-to-Simulation time• Networked: Hub, Node, Identify

Intelligence Technology• Organizational survival (100 years)• Budget & Legislative cycles• Concentration of authority• Bureaucratic rules• Hierarchical and networked• Competition for funds and

projects• Local time (8hr, home, career, soccer, seasons)

http://www.battlespaceonline.org/eros-hoagland/ramadi-iraq-2007-02.shtmlTime Structures

9Def: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L-system

Wicked Problems may have multiple tree shapes: Threading the various timings of development and rates of change produces a different tree and relationships among limbs, etc. Time ambiguity, that is choosing one external temporality or local point as “the clock”, defines branching, connectivity and causality..

Wicked problem: an emergent property of a time-ecology “tree’s” shape as formed by its

heterochrony

Wicked Problem Barriers

1. Uniform development andplacement of nodes (“children”)2. Uniform application of a single branching rule (angle, folding, etc)3. Causality one direction only4. Appears to lack flow5. Wicked problem at one location6. Space-time uniform

1. Stem can emerge from generation of children2. Uniform application of different complex rules can produce different branching and children forms3. Each “child” has its own growth rate4. Connectors or stems have their own size and rate of flows5. Heterochrony changes in the way it organizes the whole6. Space-time varies7. Multiple causal directions

Multiple Wicked Problems

Barriers (branchingrules, bifurcations, etc

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Visualizing a Time-Ecology: Video Visualizing a Time-Ecology: Video Excerpts of Traffic RegulationExcerpts of Traffic Regulation

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Time Ecology: Regulation of Policy Windows

• Battlefield strategy creates an opportunity to take advantage of the enemy through trickery

• Public policy and policy windows

– Movement and realignment by breaking barriers to regulate the flow of energy, resources and information that is external with internal structures that creates an opportunity for changing a policy (budget, elections, policy cycles) via a policy window—here to move new scientific technology

• Natural, social, and now virtual regulation of heterochrony and time budgets is the issue

• Timing for trickery?

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Five Principal Temporalities and Associated Causalities

Time is: Propagation inSpace is:

Past-PresentFutureRelationshipIs:

Causality is:

Sociotemporal Local Chunking Networks viaLocal orExtended Hubs

and Nodes

Pst-pres-pres-pst-fut-pst-pstpst...(continuous

redefining)

Complex

Biotemporal BoundedDevelopmental/

Growth

LocalReproductive

Networks

UnidirectionalMorpho-dynamics

UnidirectionalInteractive/NaturalSelection

Ecological-Terrain

Multiple-Interactive

Extended and local (ex. climate vs whether)

Unidirectional Complex

Physical Laws Eootemporal

Now-less flow Inverse Square Law and diffusion

Unidirectional Deterministic

Virtual No flow Electronically timed by Computer and Sweep Generator

No Direction Eootemporal and Programmed

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Differing pasts:

Experiences

Expectations

Rate of movementinto the present

Rate of vanishinginto the past

Near or far

Density

Market and IndustryGovernmentDisaster ResponseWarfareHousing and CommunityEnvironment/Nat. ResourcesHealth, Welfare & Safety

Differing Presents:

Narrow or wideRate of movementinto the past

Rate of movementinto the future

Density

Differing Futures:

Expectations

Control

Depth

Rate of movement into future

How the past isbrought forward

Density

Temporal Orientation and Perspective Vary by Individual and by Organization

Source: Victoria Koehler-Jones, 1999.Time Structures

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Three Local Times

• Electronic battlefield is endlessly extended (macro & micro) with unlimited number avatars and tokens in program/computer timed virtual space linked to the biotemporality

• Space-time battle is highly local (streets, mountain gorges, small-boat-to-Ship) and is embedded in five, layered temporalities that proceed at varying rates out of the past through the present into the future

• Public policy making is highly local in terms of exercising authority but extended over large distances and many layers encompassing the intelligence industry and constituencies among other factors

• Five space-time dimensions are causally nested and uniquely placed in all of these time-ecologies

• Each “placement” includes a temporal orientation and perspective toward the past, present, and future

• Wicked problems are local space-time problems embedded in different space-time time budget streams that continuously form developing agents and landscapes according to chronocomplexity dynamics

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Preliminary Identification of a Government/Industry Cluster Clock-Time Event Layers

(Nootemporal and Agent time are not ordered by layer)

(Colors are keyed to diagrams below) Organization or Process Scale: Length of Cycle Cycle

Level One (100+ yrs) 1. Government Administrative

Institution life-cycle 27-100 yrs (Kaufman (1976) Jurisdiction 2. Large firm life-cycle 50-100+ yrs (Atlantic Monthly) Domestic/global Level Two (10-80 yrs) 3. National GDP expand/contract 59-80 yrs (Pagan (1997) Jurisdiction 4. Kondratieff long wave cycles 40-65 yrs (De Greene, 1988). Economy 5. Major Party realignment 40 yrs (Key, ) Political boundaries 6. Congressional institutional

organizational life-cycle 20-40 yrs (Rieselback,1986) Institution 7. Industry cluster formation/death 10-50 yrs (Saxinean, Rees and Stafford, 1986) Network 8. Regional Infrastructure

(roads, ports, etc.) 25-30 yrs Network 9. Policy cycles 12-27 yrs (Schlesinger, 1986; and Klingberg, 1983). Varies by policy Area Jurisdiction 10. District reapportionment 10 yrs Jurisdiction Level Three (1-9 yrs) 11. Business cycle 1-9 yrs (Temin, 1998) Economy 12. Business network formation

life-cycle virtual and various Domestic/global 13. Small and medium sized

firm life-cycle 5 yrs to form; (Young, ?) 5 yrs to die (D=Aveni, 1989). Domestic 14. Governors and Members

professional life-cycle 4-6 yrs Indiv./population 15. State regional economies 5-7 yrs 16. Business Cycle (expand/cont) 5-7 yrs (Kimberly, Robert Miles, 1980) Economy Level Four (6 months to 2 years) 17. Time to develop and pass Legislature legislation 1-2 yrs 18. Regulatory cycle 1-2 yrs Jurisdiction 19. Technology cycle

(Moore=s law) 1.5 yr Economy 20. State Budget cycle 1 yr All Jurisdict/prog. 21. Legislative session life cycle 1 yr Jurisdict/program 22. Electoral process cycle 1 yr District 23. Internet demand

(100% increase) 1 yr (McQuillan, 1999) Telecommunicatins network 24. Employee training and

other internal firm processes cycles 6 mon-1 yr (Sastry, 1997) Firm

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27. Product innovation S curve cycles 6 mon. per season (Modis, 1998). Firm

Level Five (Hours to 6 months) 28. Programatic interventions (funds and services) monthly Jurisdiction 29. Demand for data bites and

internet core (100% increase) 2 months (McQuillan, 1999) Economy

30. Media content cycles (story coverage time) Circulation Level Six (Minutes to seconds) (Lemke, 2000) 31. Interpersonal dialogue seconds/minustes Person 32. Utterance (word or phrase) second (1-10) Person 33. Vocal sound 10^-1 Sec. Level Seven (Less than a second) (Lemke, 2000) 34. Neuronal patterns 10^-2 Sec. Brain 35. Neural firings (nural processes) 10^-3 Sec. 36. Membrane process (Ligand binding) 10^-4 Sec. 37. Chemical synthesis (Neurotransmitters) 10^-5 Sec. Level Eight (Virtual-electronic-biological perception) 38. Computer clock time and flat or other screen sweep generation consistent with visual processing Speed.

Source: Gus Koehler, “A Framework for Visualizing the Chronocomplexity of Politically Regulated Time-Ecologies,” Prepared for Presentation at International Society for the Study of Time, 2001 Conference, Gorgonza, Italy, July 8-22, 2001. This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under Grant No. 0083934. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. Coinvestigating institutions each with complementary research to this effort include, of which this document is Part I: Arizona State University, University of Southern California, Institute for Law and Systems Research, and Time Structures.

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Sociotemporal Extension in Space

• Sociotemporal extension is interaction beyond one’s immediate presence via voice, physical messages, digital or analogues messages, virtual messages, refrigerator magnets

• Projection of authority over space and time

• Stretching of socio-political systems across time

• Movement to one point like Los Angeles from Santa Barbara can take 500 minutes or 100 minutes by car depending on the year

• Simultaneity of convergence at different space times by class based on mode of transportation (high cost of political participation for the poor or different organizations)

• Any local patch is deformed by sociotemporal extensions (prune world)

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Elements of Complexity Contribute to Wicked Problems

• “Structural” complexity: Number of different parts in a time-ecology and their interactions

• “Hierarchical” complexity: Number of levels in a hierarchy that makes up the time ecology

• “Functional” complexity: – Number of different functions an organism or organization can

perform, or– Computational capacity of an organism, organization or device

• Chronocomplexity: number of heterochronic interactions via tubes within the system including the developmental status of an agent/organization, and between the system and its natural environment

Chris Adami, Evolution of Biocomplexity Time Structures

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Stretching social time-ecologies across space-time

Structural Complexity

Hierarchical Complexity

Chronocomplexity

FunctionalComplexity

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Measures of complexity

“[…] no broad definition has been offered that is both operational, in the sense that it indicates unambiguously how to measure complexity in real systems, and universal, in the sense that it can be applied to all systems.”

D.W. McShea (1996)

Chris Adami, Evolution of BiocomplexityTime Structures

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A Closer Look at Three Time Ecologies: 1. Battlefield 2. Battle Field Virtual

3. Government-Private Sector

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Policy Windows Move

Policy Window

Tactics for Both: Dividing Space-Time with Trickery

Intelligence Technology Complex: Timing is weeks, months, and years.

Battlefield: Time is context-enemy tactics driven from seconds to weeks, months and years

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Future Approach B

US Soldier: Heterochrony of Nested

Temporalities

Uneven Time Chunks

Future Approach BFuture Approach B

Moslem Enemy: Heterochrony of Nested

TemporalitiesPast fading BPast fading B

Past Fading APast Fading A

Future Approach AFuture Approach A

Local Landscape(Spatial-Temporal)

CharacteristicEntrainment

Battlefield: Agent, Pipes, and LandscapesAs Complementary fields in SpaceTime as seen from the Nootemporal Perspective

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Command Operations & High-Tech Business’ Temporal Layers

Growth

Developmental Stages

Foresight Horizon

A B C D E

Start-up Early-stage Rapid Growth MatureDeclining

Future

Prod.Dev.

Research

PlanningManagement

HumanResources

Capital Marketing

Manufacturing

InformationTechnology

Temporal-Signature

Networking capacity

Past

.1 2 3 3 5 6

Organizational or Process Cycle (see page X)

100+ 10-80 1-9 . 5-2 Hrs-.5 Sec.-Min.

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A

B

C

A = Pentagon

B = Equipment, Other

C = Field Operations

Exports

Diagram of an Pentagon-Industry-Battle Time-Ecology

.1 2 3 3 5 6

Organizational or Process Cycle

100+ 10-80 1-9 . 5-2 Hrs-.5 Sec.-Min.

Battle Field Foresight Horizon minutes to months

Internet

Telephone

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

P F

P F

P F

P F

P F

P F

P F

P F

P F

P F

P F

P F

P F

P F

P F

P F

P F

P F

P F

P F

P F

P FP F

P F

P F

P F

Organization’s Past-Present-Future Orientation

TS + Temporal Signature

Pentagon Foresight Horizon months to years

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Opening of Policy or Opportunity Windows

• Policy or opportunity windows may open at a far higher frequency than can be easily perceived or analyzed anywhere on the battlefield or at multiple points in the intelligence technology complex time-ecology

• Very hard to identify policy window opportunities for disrupting boundaries by trickery

• The following policy window examples are drawn from California state politics

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Wickedness Elements Regulating Policy Windows

• Appropriations process: yearly cycle and variations over time

• Defense acquisition process: RFP proposal time, awarding, monitoring, reports and related paper and procedural temporalities

• Legal policy barriers: regulatory definitions and redefinitions

• Legislative barriers: policy cycles, party cycles, legislative process

• Intelligence barriers: regulatory and policy barriers varying across levels and agencies

• Organizational culture: private sector, military, legislative, soldier, enemy, virtual, intelligence, etc

• Technology Transfer: policy definitions, development and process cycles

• Deployment barriers: manufacturing cycle, training of users, logistics and rates of movement, etc

• Political pressure to increase speed of tech development and transfer

• Organizational barriers: stove-piping, iron-law of oligarchy, funding battles and organizational battles, organizational life-time

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Policy Entrepreneurs

• A policy entrepreneur advocates for proposals or for ideas by changing the direction and flow of politics in multiple, nested political and administrative arenas

• They join solutions to problems through policy windows when administrations change or other large scale events occur providing favorable political circumstances

• They increase their chances of success by knowing how to open or close policy windows in a time-ecology

• They are knowledgeable about policy making, legislative and administrative advocacy, procedures, and implementation

• Their work is enhanced by policy networks and by working with political groups

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Timing, Cunning, and Sometimes Trickery

• A political time-ecology is in a state of punctuated equilibrium with different parts changing at varying rates

• A time-ecology may directly, or indirectly, influence the choice of strategy used to seek a preferred policy change

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Opening a Policy Window

Issue A: low priority

Long term Legislative Organizational cycle in phase or out of phase?

Issue WindowOpen?

Media attention?

Heterochronic inputs:•campaign funds•constituency support•term limits•Party control

Historical PolicyCycle in phase?

Current Historical Context Supportive?

Org. Or Indiv.Policy EntrepreneurAvailable?

Member’s Career Cyclein phase with issue and associatedwith strength of support?

LegislativeProcess .1 2 3 4 5 6

Organizational or Process Cycle

100+ 10-80 1-9 . 5-2 Hrs-.5 Sec.-Min.

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Session Conditions:-Staff and member workload re: # bills,and committee assignments- Probability of bill movement given introducingmember’s party Vs. house controlling party- Probability of movement given leadership and Governor priorities and party- Cost: money in bill? Is bill distributive, redistributiveor regulatory? Relative cost? Competing budgetpriorities? - Perception surrounding bill: fear, fame, crises or not?- Legislative/executive relations?- Procedural sequences and likelihood of survival(double referral)?- Policy cycle place (agenda-setting, formulation,adoption, implementation, evaluation) relative to bill and budget deadlines?

LegislativeProcess

Legislative Session DeterminantsOf Opening A Policy Window

Heterochronic inputs:- Importance to constituency?- Interest group(s) pressure?- Media publicity?- Gov. agency pressure?- Gov. provider pressure?- NGO(s) pressure?- Federal, state, local gov.pressure?- Campaign resource?- Other historical issues or votes?

Enrolled

Administration

.1 2 3 4 5 6

100+ 10-80 1-9 . 5-2 Hrs-.5 Sec.-Min.


(Issue on LegislativeAgenda)

End

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Opening an Administrative Approval and Implementation Policy Window Admin.

Governor’s Career Cycle favorable and/or consistent with party and policyagenda?

Blue pencilprobability?

Regime cycle favorable?Bill chaptered?Not implemented

or incompletely implemented probability?

Agency Capacity/Survivalprobability?

Administrative heterochronic inputs:- Budget and personnelrequests and cycles- Policy cycle of priorities and direction- Accountability/performance- Media attention- Client satisfaction- Advocacy groups strengths and level of activity

Budget and otherGov.. legislation

Regulatory adoption/revision process Provision of Services

Time technologies used to implement(visit schedule, forms, appeals, etc..) andassociated Kairos, eigenzeitung, and chronos

100+ 10-80 1-9 . 5-2 Hrs-.5 Sec.-Min.

.1 2 3 4 5 6

End

End

New Statute

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.1 2 3 4 5 6


100+ 10-80 1-9 . 5-2 Hrs-.5 Sec.-Min.

Issue A: low priority

Long term Legislative Organizational cycle in phase or out of phase?

Issue WindowOpen?

Media attention?

Heterochronic inputs:•campaign funds•cons tituency support•term limits•Party control• see notes

Historical PolicyCycle in phase?

Current Historical Context Supportive?

Org. Or Indiv.Policy EntrepreneurAvailable?

Draft4/28/2001Session CyclePage 1

Member’s Career Cyclein phase with issue and associatedwith strength of support?

AB

I. Advocacy

100+ 10-80 1-9 . 5 -2 Hrs-.5 Se c.-M in.

C



Regime cycle favorable?Bil l chaptered?Not implemented



Administrative heterochronic inputs:- Budget and personnelrequests and cycles- Policy cycle of priori ties and direction- Accountabil ity/performance- Media attention- Client satisfaction- Advocacy groups strengths and level of activity




C










C










C










C










C










C Low Tech. Suppliers

Session Conditions:-Staff and member workload re: # bills,and committee assignments- Probability of bill movement given introducingmember’s party Vs. house controlling party- Probability of movement given leadership and Governor priorities and party- Cost: money in bill? Is bill distributive, redistributiveor regulatory? Relative cost? Competing budgetpriorities? - Perception surrounding bill: fear, fame, crises or not?- Legislative/executive relations?- Procedural sequences and likelihood of survival(double referral)?- Policy cycle place (agenda-setting, formulation,adoption, implementation, evaluation) relative to bill and budget deadlines?

Heterochronic inputs:- Importance to constituency?- Interest group(s) presure?- Media publicity?- Gov. agency pressure?- Gov. provider pressure?- NGO(s) pressure?- Federal, state, local gov.pressure?- Campaign resource?- Other historical issues or votes?

Enrolled

C

100+ 10-80 1-9 . 5-2 Hrs-.5 Sec.-Min.

C










C










tt

A Prime

B High Tech. Suppliers

tt

t

t

tt

t

C










A Legislation-AdminBusiness Time-Ecology

Regional Economy

Legislative/AdministrativeProcesses

Economic DevelopmentPrograms for Business

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Chronocomplexity of Strategic Decision Making is a Wicked Problem

• Our focus is not on static institutional structures and/or how innovation is blocked

• The focus here is on hierarchic chronocomplex relationships and emergent policy windows that if aligned, could produce actionable intelligence consistent with battlefield timing and trickery (boundary penetrating and changing) requirements

• What heterochronic relationships open policy windows that produce actionable intelligence and close those of the enemy? What is the role of the policy entrepreneur at aligning these time ecologies?

• Can intelligence technology Complex factors be manipulated to meet battle field timing and trickery requirements by a policy entrepreneur?

• How does chronocomplexity make these relationships and the role of the policy entrepreneur more vulnerable to disruptive timing and trickery?

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Strategies to Break Innovation and Technology Transfer Barriers

Producing Actionable Intelligence

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Simulations of Chronocomplex Systems

"You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something,

build a new model that makes theexisting model obsolete."

-- Buckminster Fuller

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Policy Working Group: Next Steps?• Flow chart the research, prototyping, approval,

procurement, and introduction into the field of appropriate weapon as a time-ecology

• Flow chart process of identifying soldier’s expressed needs and how they are filled; what is delivered to them;and what is not used as a time-ecology

• Use dialogue mapping with key players at apparent barriers using both flow charts to identify key policy issues and their timing

• Collect available information and use survey research to determine soldiers needs and what they are likely to use

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• Conduct two case studies: successful rapid creation and deployment of a product useful to soldiers and of one that wasn’t

• Policy Group dialogue maps key wicked factors in their time-ecology context, possibly with key players

• Draft strategy and options to address issues: – Creation of policy entrepreneurs– Policy options to remove specific barriers and

causes of delays including those that may require legislation

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Battlefield Time-Ecology Research Issues (1)

• What to look for: Diagram the time-ecology as a complex system and from the perspective of a policy-entrepreneur who can navigate it

• Use Dialogue and Issue Mapping by policy entrepreneurs and actors from the involved sectors to identify precursors of a wicked problem and of a policy window opening or closing

• Wicked problem detection could be carried out autonomous agent simulations using such issue and dialogue maps

• One way to look: identify and evaluate the rhythms of policy windows, possible paths to them, their disruption, and reasons for their opening or closing linked within their time-ecology

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Battlefield Time-Ecology Research Issues (2)

• Other ways: Determine the extent to which mobility (the consumption of distance)—be it physical or digital—is intrinsic to certain types of warfare or policy making as human space-time extensibility

• Identify and label varying temporal patterns caused by different local time-ecology clocks that create policy windows including their sync frequencies, at multiple levels: neuronal, perceptual, interpretative, translations from virtual to real to virtual; social-interactive, group interactive; machine-human; enemy-soldier, etc; military space-air-machine-individual, etc)

• Derive and interpret patterns and process of policy making or battlefield local space-time economies and tactics, trickery, etc, including introduction of new intelligence technology relative to soldier operational effectiveness and survival

• How are new intelligence technologies socially constructed and by whom

and then embedded in a time-ecology’s distribution of authority, power, and opportunity relative to policy windows

Time Structures

1 The Chronocomplexity of Actionable Intelligence Gus Koehler Time Structures .

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