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Sustainable Agricultural Economic benefits of reservoir scale expansion in

Balkh Basin, Afghanistan

Abdelaziz A. Gohar & Frank A. Ward New Mexico State University, USA

South Valley University, Qena, Egypt July 25, 2012

With support from Dr. Saud Amer, US Geological Survey

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Road Map Background

Balkh irrigation system Balkh agricultural system Historical water and land use

Research problem Objectives Methods (Approach) Data Analysis Results Conclusions Path forward

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1. Background : Irrigation System Balkh River: important source of irrigation water in northern

Afghanistan. Policy and distribution control by local authority (Mirab) Little cooperation among neighboring mirabs Watershed regions

Upper Middle Lower

80 % of population is rural Irrigated Crops: wheat , tomato , potato ,melon, rice , cotton , alfalfa, pulses

Schematic of Balkh River Canal System, Afghanistan

Balkh

Mushtag

Siagard

Abdulah

Dawlatabad

Chemtal

Faizabad

Murdian

Charbulak

Mingajik

Nahr_Shahi

Aman_Sahib

Khanaqah

Aqcha

G4

G5

G6

G8

G7

G3 G2

G1

G12

G11

G10

G9

Reservoir

Lower basin

Middle Basin

Upper Basin

Use node

gauge

G13

Lower Region

Middle R.

Upper R

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Background: Water use Table 1: Total water used and total land by region, Balkh river , Afghanistan

RegionIrrigated land Water used

ha % MCM %Upper Region 82,140 18 211.43 14

Middle Region 155,677 34 419.11 29

Lower Region 223,183 48 834.11 57

Total 461,000 100 1,464.65 100

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Background: Land use Table 2: Total assumed irrigated Land by region and crops in Hectares

Crop/Region Upper Middle Lower Total

Wheat 8,000 8,300 5,206 21,506 Tomato 9,352 2,398 12,906 24,656 Potato 2,008 2,350 11,126 15,484 Melon 17,498 47,060 33,924 98,482 Rice 2,008 2,661 34,328 38,997 Cotton 20,112 31,683 38,169 89,964 Alfalfa 4,400 5,100 5,800 15,300 Pulses 18,762 56,125 81,724 156,611 Total 82,140 155,677 223,183 461,000

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Background: Water use Table 3: Total water in use by region (MCM)

Crops / Region

Upper Region

Middle Region

Lower Region Total

Wheat 15.46 17.15 11.63 44.23Tomato 20.00 5.49 31.93 57.42Potato 4.99 6.24 31.96 43.20Melon 43.47 125.04 97.46 265.97

Rice 15.45 22.08 310.84 348.37Cotton 57.36 96.63 125.88 279.87Alfalfa 14.57 18.06 22.21 54.85Pulses 40.13 128.41 202.19 370.73Total 211.43 419.11 834.11 1,464.65

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Research Problems No water storage capacity

agricultural system suffers in droughts Lower region users get no water no benefit can be stored in wet period

Inadequate water institutions Low water distribution efficiency High water losses

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Objectives • Assemble historical data on water supply, water use,

crop yields, land in production, crop mix, crop costs and crop prices that characterize the economics of irrigated agriculture in the Balkh River Basin, Afghanistan.

• Integrate data into a framework that explains profitability, crop production, and crop land and water use so that Afghan ministry personnel, mirabs and farmers can understand what influences profitability and food-security effects of irrigated agriculture.

• Examine how profitability and food security at both the farm and basin levels are affected by additional reservoir storage capacity development in the Basin.

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Approach

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OverviewCharacterize the basin’s river-canal network. Use the canal network to predict the spatial distribution

of water use and crop production patterns under stochastic future water supplies

Examine several reservoir capacities for adapting to future water supply variability Base conditions: No reservoir capacity Small reservoir : 50 % of average annual inflow Medium reservoir: 100% of average annual inflow Large reservoir: 200 % of average annual inflow

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Data Sources

Torrel and Ward (2010). Carver and Lee, 2009. consulting report Farm budget data: USAID report, 2009 Water supply data: USAID, 2003 Food subsistence: FAOSTAT balance sheet

Methods: DetailsIntegrated Basin Framework Approach We developed an integrated basin scale framework

to identify the potential agricultural economic benefits from constructing different reservoir capacities in Balkh River. This framework is :- Dynamic optimization of economic benefits Includes hydrology Includes Land use Economic: farm budget Stochastic water inflow 20 years policy analysis

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Xvt = Total river flows at any given v-th gauge in t-th period

Xht = Flows at upstream headwater gaugeXvt = flows at upstream river gaugeXdt = diversions at upstream agricultural nodeXrt = Return flow from upstream agricultural nodeXmt = Unmeasured flows upstream gaugeXLt = Reservoir releases at L-th upstream gaugeB’s fixed coefficients

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Hydrologic Balancevt hv ht vv vt dv dt

h v d

rv rt mv mt Lv Ltr m l

X B X B X B X

B X B X B X

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Objective Function

NPV = Basin’s discounted agricultural economic benefits

Xbut = Total agricultural economic benefits at

u-th node in t-th period r = Discount rate

tt

u

ut

u r

XBNPV

)1(

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Policy Evaluation : Storage capacities Base situation

No water storage capacities No increase in available land Produce historical land in production for first year

Small reservoir Reservoir holds 50 % of average annual inflow No increase in irrigated land Produce no more 2 times historical land for each

crops and node

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Policy Evaluation : Storage capacities Medium reservoir

Reservoir holds 100% of average annual inflow No increase in available land No more 2 time of historical irrigated land

large Reservoir Reservoir can hold 200% of annual inflow No increase in irrigated land No more than 2 time of historical irrigated land

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Results

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Results : Basin Farm Income

Table 4: Average Annual Net Farm Income by Reservoir Capacity, Million US $

Reservoir Capacity

Net Annual Income

Change in Income

%

Base 139 0 100.00

Small 165 26.39 119.05

Medium 177 12.11 127.79

Large 184 7.02 132.86

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Results: Basin Farm Income

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Results: Basin Farm Income

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Results: Basin Farm Income

Table 5: Total Basin Farm Income by Crop and Storage Capacity (Million US $)

Crops Base Small Medium LargeWheat 20.55 20.55 20.55 20.55Tomato 15.52 19.76 19.76 19.76Potato 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02Melon 69.26 86.94 91.60 91.60

Rice 17.06 14.04 12.53 12.56Cotton 12.15 11.16 18.73 21.57Alfalfa 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15Pulses 3.80 12.28 13.66 17.82Total 138.52 164.91 177.02 184.03

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Results: Irrigated Land Table 6: Average total irrigated land by region and reservoir capacity, Balkh River Basin, Afghanistan

Region/ Capacity

Base Small Medium Large Hectares % % %

Upper 88,387 11 39 49

Middle 132,956 30 36 51

Lower 96,303 27 31 31

Total 317,646 23 36 44

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Results: Irrigated Land Table 7: Average total irrigated land by crops and reservoir capacity, Balkh river, Afghanistan.

Crops/ Capacity

Base Small Medium LargeHectares % change % change % change

Wheat 41,937 0 0 0Tomato 37,754 27 27 27Potato 774 0 0 0Melon 145,206 26 32 32

Rice 32,582 -18 -26 -26Cotton 42,479 -8 53 76Alfalfa 765 0 0 0Pulses 16,149 224 260 370Total 317,646 23 36 44

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Results: Irrigated Land

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Results : Storage volume

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Conclusions Water is an important resource for farm income in Balkh River

Basin, Afghanistan Storage capacity could raise farm income in Basin by greater

capacity to trap, hold, and release flood flows in drought periods. Gross farm benefits increase by reservoir size. Benefits increase at decreasing rate by reservoir size Largest benefits for Middle region users Benefits increase by the reservoir size for Middle and Upper Little increase for Lower region beyond medium reservoir size.

This could change with alternative water right systems. Cultivators of rice will negatively effected by small and medium

capacity Cotton cultivators will negatively effected by small capacity

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Path forwardCost of reservoir development to compare to benefitsHydrology benefits Evaporation estimation Environmental impact Institution policies

Alternative water rights systems Water trading Irrigation technology Improved crop varieties

Others

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Thanks Comments Welcome