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Statewide Land-Use Allocation

Model for Florida

Stephen Lawe, John Lobb & Kevin HathawayResource Systems Group

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Presentation Outline

1. Land Use Allocation Model (LUAM)

• Implementation & Overview

2. Data on Land Use Patterns

• Challenges of Estimation

3. Model Structure & Calibration

4. Results - Sensitivity to Accessibility

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LUAM Process – Turnpike Integrated Model Structure

Truck Trip TableTruck Trip Table

Land Use Allocation

Model (LUAM)

Land Use Allocation

Model (LUAM)

Auto Trip TableAuto Trip Table

Auto Toll TripsAuto Toll Trips Auto Toll-Free TripsAuto Toll-Free Trips Truck Toll TripsTruck Toll Trips Truck Toll-

Free TripsTruck Toll-Free Trips

Network Volumes and Travel Times

Network Volumes and Travel Times

Described in this presentation

As described in a presentation by Songer, et al. on Wednesday and Adler, et al. on Thursday

5-year lag

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LUAM Process – Model Fundamentals

• Written in C++ and integrated with transportation models:

• Currently integrated into Florida’s Turnpike Enterprise State Model

• Built to integrate into MPO models

• Allocates housing and employment growth at TAZ-level

• Growth total inputs at user-defined geography

• State, County, MPO, other.

• LUAM Model runs in 2-4 minutes

St Petersburg

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LUAM Process – Model Development Plan

• Goal: Incremental improvements while always having a model that supports analysis

• 4-step process

1. Estimate and calibrate model using aggregate town & county trends

2. Re-estimate statewide model with parcel-level data from selected counties

3. Complete statewide model estimation with parcel-level data for all counties in state

4. Continue to refine input data and policy control hooks

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Land Use Data – Overview of Process

Legal & Physical Constraints

Total Land Available

GenerateTravel Impedance

Matrix

TAZ Land Use Forecasts

5 YearDynamic Land Use Lag

Florida - Calibrated Parameters

Determine Remaining

Developable Land

Accessibility and Overall

Attractiveness

Forecasting Analysis

Procedures

Base Year Zonal Land Use

• Households• Employment

Future Growth Increment

Allocate new Increment of Land

Use

• Households• Employment

• Households• Employment

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Land Use Data – Development History (parcel level)

Cape Coral

Fort Myers

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Land Use Data – Lumpy by Year 1,132

849

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Vacant

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Land Use Data – Spatial Variability (parcel variability)

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Land Use Data – Urban Growth Boundaries (legal constraints)

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Model Structure – Parameters of Model

Variable Source Effect on Development

Accessibility Travel Model Non-Linear, generally positive

Proximity to Coast GIS Positive

Distance from Arterials & Interchanges GIS/Network Negative

Density of Current Use Parcel Positive

Mix of Land-Uses Parcel Homogeneity is positive

Urban Growth Boundary GIS layer Less development outside UGB

Undeveloped Area Parcel Positive

   

Res. & Non-Res. Development History Parcel (dependent variable)

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Model Structure – Two Stage Logit / Linear

1. What percent of the available land is consumed?

Logit Model Estimates:

Pij = Probability of TAZ i, land use j, being developed

ePij = Pr(Yij = 1 | Xij)

=

ἀ + β1x1 + β2x2 +…+ βkxk

ἀ + β1x1 + β2x2 +…+ βkxk 1 + e

Densityij = β1x1 + β2x2 +…+ βkxk + ε

2. How many houses & emp. will build on the consumed land?

Tobit Model Estimates:

Densityij = amount of land use j in TAZ i

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Model Structure – Calibration Results (Residential Growth 1980 - 2005)

Pearson’s Correlation

TAZ= .58

ZIP = .81

Observed Growth Modeled Growth

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Statewide Application – 2015 households

• Run model and look for outliers

• Run without controlling and compare to county control totals

• Correlation of .93 with 2015 medium BEBR growth totals

• Bureau of Economic and Business Research

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Model Sensitivity Test - Accessibility

• Approximate Population to Employment Ratio

• Cape Coral: 3 pop to 1 emp

• Fort Myers: 1 pop to 2 emp

• Doubling of bridge capacity during 1990s

• Large subsequent observed increase in development in Cape Coral

• Population increase by 75% between ’95 – ’05

• Twice the rate of growth in ’80s and ’90s

• Modeled removal of new bridge capacity

• Population increase by 55% between ’95 – ’05 (as compared to 75% with the bridges)

Legend

% Difference HH

-0.53 - -0.40

-0.39 - -0.30

-0.29 - -0.25

-0.24 - -0.20

-0.19 - -0.15

-0.14 - -0.10

-0.09 - -0.05

-0.04 - 0.00

0.01 - 0.11

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Summary and Conclusions

• FL TSM v1 completed in 2006, has been used for major planning applications (Doherty, Fennessy & Songer, Wednesday presentation – Session 17)

• Land-use model built on a high-quality, maintained statewide GIS database

• Simplified initial model structure supports focus on critical data quality and maintenance issues

• Work is continuing on estimating one set of land-use models for the State

• Statewide Land Use Model creates growth forecasts in a consistent manner which is important to the Florida’s Turnpike Enterprise