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PRTC Bus Service Strategic Plan

Public Hearing Presentation

September 2004

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Presentation Outline

• Strategic plan background• Factors shaping transit service needs• Analysis and evaluation approach• Candidate new / expanded services examined• Recommended services• Related bus purchase and maintenance /

storage facility investment requirements• Other forms of service delivery• Next steps

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Strategic Plan Background

• Publicly supported bus services in area shaped by multi-year strategic plan

• Last such plan developed by PRTC several years ago, and now nearing end of its useful life

• PRTC’s governing board wants new (updated) plan produced in FY 2005, timed to dovetail with FY 2006 budget process

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Factors Shaping Transit Needs

• Population / employment growth in area

• Deteriorating traffic conditions

• Growing public dissatisfaction with transportation conditions in the area

• PRTC survey – citizens’ perceptions of unmet transit needs

• Assessment of existing transit services – strengths and weaknesses

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Factors Shaping Transit Needs• Population growth in Prince William County, Manassas and Manassas Park – 1990 to 2003

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

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Factors Shaping Transit Needs• Projected population and employment in Prince

William County – 2005 to 2030

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

Population

Employment

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Factors Shaping Transit NeedsDeteriorating traffic conditions – 1990 - 2003Measure Change Since 1990

• Demand– VMT (NOVA counties only) 49% increase

• Supply– Lane miles added (NOVA counties only) 9% increase

• Demand vs. Supply (Congestion)

– VMT per lane mile (NOVA counties only) 37% increase

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Factors Shaping Transit Needs• Growing citizen dissatisfaction with transportation

in the area Around County Satisfied?

2000 62.8%

2001 55.1%

2002 57.6%

2003 52.5%

2004 45.7%

Around NOVA Satisfied?

2001 37.3%

2003 37.1%

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Factors Shaping Transit Needs(PRTC Survey – OmniRide)

• More frequent service on existing routes• Off-peak service on existing routes• Weekend Metro Direct service (connecting to

Metrorail)• New service

– To Dulles area– To Tysons Corner– To Rosslyn– To Fort Belvoir– From Haymarket / Gainesville

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Factors Shaping Transit Needs(PRTC Survey – OmniLink)

• Weekend service

• New service – Innovation– Montclair– Haymarket / Gainesville

• More frequent service on existing routes

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Factors Shaping Transit Needs

• Assessment of existing service– Evaluated relative to multiple measures of service quality

(defined by the Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual -- transit industry guide for such evaluations)

– OmniRide and OmniLink separately evaluated to account for inherent differences

• Measures– Hours of service– Coverage– Frequency– Passenger seating capacity (loading)– On-time performance– Trips not served– Travel time (relative to auto)

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Factors Shaping Transit Needs – Existing Service Weaknesses

• OmniRide– Lack of off-peak service– Absence of service in some areas

• Haymarket (on “residential” end)• Rosslyn, Tysons Corner, Route 28 / Dulles, and Fort Belvoir

(on “destination” end)

– Absence of weekend service

• OmniLink– Deficient service frequency on existing routes– Absence of service in some areas

• Montclair, Haymarket / Gainesville (on the “residential” end)• Innovation and Fort Belvoir (on “destination” end)

– Absence of weekend service

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Factors Shaping Transit Needs

• Assessment of existing services – area peer comparisons from “service per capita” perspective

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Factors Shaping Transit Needs

• Assessment of existing services – area peer comparisons from “investment per capita” perspective

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Candidate Services Examined

• New OmniRide routes

• Expanded service on existing OmniRide routes

• New OmniLink routes

• Expanded service on existing OmniLink routes

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Candidate Services Examined – New OmniRide Routes

• Rosslyn

• Haymarket

• Tysons Corner (from east and west)

• Fort Belvoir

• Route 28 / Dulles

• Brentsville

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Candidate Services Examined – Expanded Service on Existing

OmniRide Routes

• More peak period Route One corridor service

• Mid-day service• Later evening service• Later morning service• Saturday Metro Direct (from east and

west)• Increased frequency and Saturday service

on Cross-county route

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Candidate Services Examined – New OmniLink Routes

• Route One supplemental service

• Montclair-related

• Haymarket / Gainesville-related

• Innovation

• Route One Fort Belvoir extension

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Candidate Services Examined – Expanded Service on Existing

OmniLink Routes• Route One corridor• Increased frequency on easterly OmniLink

routes• Increased frequency on westerly OmniLink

routes• Saturday service on westerly OmniLink

routes• Sunday service on both easterly and

westerly OmniLink routes

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Candidate Services Examined –

Evaluation Factors• Customer requests / interest expressed

via survey

• Daily ridership expectations

• Gross subsidy requirement

• Gross subsidy per trip

• Additional bus requirements

• Supportiveness of local jurisdictional goals / objectives

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Recommended Services -- Introduction

• Two groupings– Those recommended for implementation

within next five years (by 2010)– Those seen as desirable later than 2010

• “Later than 2010” group not recommended sooner because– Road improvements have to be completed

first to make the services productive and/or– Markets need more time to develop

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Recommended Services - OmniRide OmniRide Service RecommendationsService Hours Recommended Startup

Supplemental Route One Service 5 AM to 9 AM 3 PM to 7 PM FY06

More Mid Day OmniRide 11 AM to 2 PM FY06

Increased Frequency Cross County 7 AM to 7 PM FY07

Later Evening OmniRide 7 PM to 9 PM FY07

Rosslyn OmniRide 5 AM to 9 AM 3 PM to 7 PM FY07

Saturday Prince William Metro Direct 7:30 AM to 11 PM FY08

Saturday Cross County 8 AM to 10 PM FY09

Haymarket OmniRide 5 AM to 9 AM 3 PM to 7 PM FY09

Later Morning OmniRide 8 AM to 10 AM FY09

Saturday Manassas Metro Direct 7:30 AM to 10:30 PM FY10

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Recommended Services - OmniLink

OmniLink Service RecommendationsService Hours Recommended Startup

Rt. 1 Supplemental OmniLink 5 AM to 10 PM FY06

Increased Frequency Eastern PW OmniLink 6 AM to 9 AM 4 PM to 7 PM FY07

Increased Frequency Western PW OmniLink 6 AM to 9 AM 4 PM to 7 PM FY08

Saturday Western PW OmniLink 7:30 AM to 10:30 PM FY09

Innovation OmniLink 6 AM to 10 PM FY10

Sunday Eastern PW OmniLink 8 AM to 7 PM FY10

Rt. 1 / Fort Belvoir Extension 6 AM to 10 PM FY10

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Recommended OmniRide Services Within Next Five Years – Key Financials

and Other Measures

ServiceRidership

(Daily)

Local Subsidy

Bus RequirementTotal Per Trip

Supplemental Route One Service 78 $51,357 $2.59 2

Increased Frequency Cross County 86 $155,215 $7.05 1

Saturday Cross County 129 $10,718 $1.60 0

More Mid Day OmniRide 61 $36,487 $2.35 0

Later Evening OmniRide 76 $17,702 $0.92 0

Rosslyn OmniRide 160 $27,415 $0.67 3

Saturday Prince William Metro Direct 227 $20,384 $1.73 0

Haymarket OmniRide 112 $150,693 $5.30 3

Later Morning OmniRide 169 $163,705 $3.81 0

Saturday Manassas Metro Direct 119 $39,154 $6.33 0

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Recommended OmniLink Services Within Next Five Years – Key Financials

and Other Measures

ServiceRidership

(Daily)

Local Subsidy

Bus RequirementTotal

Per Trip

Rt. 1 Supplemental OmniLink 250 $374,274 $5.85 2

Increased Frequency Eastern PW OmniLink 502 $299,239 $2.33 4

Increased Frequency Western PW OmniLink 129 $307,736 $9.32 2

Saturday Western PW OmniLink 215 $74,574 $6.66 0

Innovation OmniLink 121 $165,176 $5.33 1

Sunday Eastern PW OmniLink 418 $104,490 $4.81 0

Rt. 1 / Fort Belvoir Extension 48 $59,229 $4.82 0

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Desirable Services Beyond 2010

Service Hours

Tyson’s Corner-Eastern Prince William OmniRide 5 AM - 9 AM 3 PM - 7 PM

Fort Belvoir OmniRide 5 AM - 9 AM 3 PM - 7 PM

Tyson’s Corner-Western Prince William OmniRide 5 AM - 9 AM 3 PM - 7 PM

Route 28/Dulles OmniRide 5 AM - 9 AM 3 PM - 7 PM

Brentsville OmniRide 5 AM - 9 AM 3 PM - 7 PM

Montclair OmniLink 6 AM to 10 PM

Sunday Western Prince William OmniLink 8 AM to 7 PM

Gainesville/Haymarket OmniLink 6 AM to 10 PM

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Bus Purchase Needs Within Next Five Years

New/Expanded Services: FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10

OmniLink 2 4 2 0 1

OmniRide: 40 foot (46 seats) 0 1 0 0 0

OmniRide: 45 foot (57 seats) 2 3 0 3 0

Ambient Growth on Existing Services:

OmniRide: 45 foot (57 seats) 2 2 2 2 2

Spares to Maintain Adequate Spare Margin:

OmniLink 1 0 0 0 0

Replacements 0 4 0 0 0

Total Additional Buses:  

OmniLink 3 4 2 0 1

OmniRide: 40 foot (46 seats) 0 1 0 0 0

OmniRide: 45 foot (57 seats) 4 9 2 5 2

Total Additional Buses 7 14 4 5 3

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Funding Requirements For Bus Purchases

Service FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10

New/Expanded Services: OmniLink 1,650,600$ 303,298$ OmniRide: 40 foot (46 seats) 308,700$ 45 foot (57 seats) 2,220,750$ 1,399,073$

Ambient Growth on Existing Services: OmniRide: 45 foot (57 seats) 888,300$ 932,715$ 979,351$ 1,028,318$ 1,079,734$

Spares to Maintain Adequate Spare Margin: OmniLink 275,100$

Replacements OmniRide 1,865,432$

Total Additional Funding: OmniLink 1,925,700$ 303,298$ OmniRide: 40 foot (46 seats) 308,700$ 45 foot (57 seats) 3,109,050$ 4,197,220$ 979,351$ 1,028,318$ 1,079,734$ Total Additional Funding 5,343,450$ 4,197,220$ 1,282,649$ 1,028,318$ 1,079,734$

(1) In escalated dollars

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Maintenance / Storage Needs

• Short-term expansion– Enlarge secure storage lot at PRTC Transit

Center, encroaching on employee parking lot– Move employee parking lot to existing

commuter lot– Construct replacement commuter lot on

undeveloped acreage across from Transit Center

• Longer-term expansion – Westerly maintenance facility

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Maintenance / Storage Needs – Short Term

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Maintenance / Storage Needs – Longer Term

• Short-term plan yields total storage capacity of 128 buses

• Fleet grows to 134 buses by 2010 assuming all recommended services are implemented as proposed

• Indicates need for second maintenance facility• Preferred location on western side of PRTC

service area to reduce “dead-head” costs

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Alternative Forms of Service Delivery Potentially

Warranting Public Support• Forms

– Volunteer transportation program– Voucher program

• Either could be substitute form of service or supplement to improve mobility even further

• Volunteer program already exists – Run by Prince William Area Interfaith Caregivers (aka

“Caregivers”)– No public funding at present, limiting its effectiveness

• No voucher program in PRTC service area at present, but many examples in jurisdictions to the north

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Next Steps

• PRTC compiles reactions to draft plan from citizens and PRTC governing board

• PRTC finalizes plan for governing board’s consideration / adoption as early as October 2004

• Plan used to shape proposed budget submissions to PRTC member jurisdictions

• Member jurisdictions decide which of the recommended services they wish to sponsor (if any)

• Implementation thereafter in accordance with sponsors’ decisions

• Process begins with the FY 2006 budget