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Transcript of 1 Produced by:. Welcome and Opening Comments Ralf Garrison, Host The ASSEMBLY David Ingemie,...
1Produced by:
2
Welcome and Opening Comments
Ralf Garrison,Host
The ASSEMBLY
David Ingemie, President
SnowSports Industries America
3
THE ASSEMBLYJanuary 23rd, 2013
Data as of December 31, 2012
Presented by: Tom Foley
The Colorado Convention CenterJanuary 31, 2014
GENERAL SESSION 1: Situation: State of the Industry – Winter 13/14
Sponsored by: 4
5
Moderated by:Nate Fristoe,
DirectorRRC
Presenter:Tom Foley,Director of OperationsDestiMetrics
Presenter:David Becher,Director of ResearchRRC
Presenter:Kelly Davis,Director of ResearchSIA
GENERAL SESSION 1: Situation: State of the Industry – Winter 13/14
6Made possible by DestiMetrics LLCProperty of DestiMetrics LLC dba The ASSEMBLY - All Rights Reserved - 303.731.2268 – theassembly.destimetrics.com - [email protected]
AspenAvonBeaver CreekBreckenridgeCopper MtnGunnison / Crested ButteJackson HoleKeystoneMammoth LakesMt BachelorNorth Lake TahoePark CitySnowmassSteamboat SpringsSummit Cty, COTellurideWinter ParkVail
Hunter MountainJay Peak
Jiminy PeakKillington
Mt TremblantMt Washington
Snowshoe Stratton
Sugarbush Sunday River
MTR
iP W
EST M
TRiP EAST2013: THE DESTIMETRICS DATA
7Made possible by DestiMetrics LLCProperty of DestiMetrics LLC dba The ASSEMBLY - All Rights Reserved - 303.731.2268 – theassembly.destimetrics.com - [email protected]
2013: ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
Dow Jones
Confidence
Unemployment
Made possible by DestiMetrics LLCProperty of DestiMetrics LLC dba The ASSEMBLY - All Rights Reserved - 303.731.2268 – theassembly.destimetrics.com - [email protected]
2014: ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS
Lowest Projection Highest
Projection Avg
GDP 1.5% 2.5% 2.9% 3.3% 2.6%
Unemployment 6.3% 6.3% 6.6% 7.1% 6.6%
Dow Jones 1.0% 3.5% 5.0% 7.0% 4.1%
Existing Home Sales -2.2% 1.5% 4.0% 4.5% 2.0%
New Home Sales 5.9% 12.5% 16.0% 18.5% 13.2%
Sources: PKF, KPMG, Kiplinger, The Conference Board
Made possible by DestiMetrics LLCProperty of DestiMetrics LLC dba The ASSEMBLY - All Rights Reserved - 303.731.2268 – theassembly.destimetrics.com - [email protected]
Nights
Revenue
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
69.3%
79.5%
24.2% Nights In The Bank
25.3% Revenue In The Bank
Winter Night & Revenue Fill: % of Last Years Totals Booked (as of December 31, 2013 Actual
54.2% Revenue On The Books
45.1% Nights On The Books
SEASONAL HEALTH: PROGRESS TO-DATE
Made possible by DestiMetrics LLCProperty of DestiMetrics LLC dba The ASSEMBLY - All Rights Reserved - 303.731.2268 – theassembly.destimetrics.com - [email protected]
Nights
Revenue
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
88.6%
96.1%
48.5% Nights In The Bank
53.2% Revenue In The Bank
Winter Night & Revenue Fill: % of Last Years Totals Booked (as of Jan 31, 2014 Projected)
42.9% Revenue On The Books
40.1% Nights On The Books
SEASONAL HEALTH: PROGRESS TO-DATE
Made possible by DestiMetrics LLCProperty of DestiMetrics LLC dba The ASSEMBLY - All Rights Reserved - 303.731.2268 – theassembly.destimetrics.com - [email protected]
Occupancy, ADR and RevPAR for Aggregate of all Winter Months (November ‘13 – April ‘14) On-The-Books as of 12/31/2013
OCC
UPA
NCY
RAT
E
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
90%
80%
70%
60%
100%
31.6%
ADR
$300
$200
$100
$400
$352
RevP
AR
$150
$100
$50
$200
$112
11
6.9% 4.9% 12.1%
Occupancy
‘13/14: 31.6%
‘12/1329.6%
ADR
’13/14: $352
’12/13$336
RevPAR
’13/14: $112
’12/13$99
Occupancy ADR RevPAR
SEASONAL HEALTH: WHERE WE STAND
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CALLING THE SEASON: OCCUPANCY
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/140.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%47.1%
39.1%39.7%
42.0%40.6%
42.7%
45.8%
+7.3%
Made possible by DestiMetrics LLCProperty of DestiMetrics LLC dba The ASSEMBLY - All Rights Reserved - 303.731.2268 – theassembly.destimetrics.com - [email protected] 13
CALLING THE SEASON: RATE
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 $260.00
$270.00
$280.00
$290.00
$300.00
$310.00
$320.00
$330.00 $325.00
$301.00
$289.00
$294.00
$307.00
$318.00
$327.64
+3.0%
Made possible by DestiMetrics LLCProperty of DestiMetrics LLC dba The ASSEMBLY - All Rights Reserved - 303.731.2268 – theassembly.destimetrics.com - [email protected] 14
CALLING THE SEASON: RevPAR
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 $-
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
$140.00
$160.00 $152.00
$118.00 $114.00 $123.00 $125.00
$136.00
$151.63
+11.5%
Made possible by DestiMetrics LLCProperty of DestiMetrics LLC dba The ASSEMBLY - All Rights Reserved - 303.731.2268 – theassembly.destimetrics.com - [email protected] 15
SEASONAL HEALTH: THE BENCHMARK?
'07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
-17.0%-15.7%
-10.8%-13.8%
-9.3% -2.8%-7.4%-11.1% -9.5%
-5.5%-2.2%
0.8%
-22.4% -25.0%
-19.1% -17.8%-10.5%
-0.2%
Winter Recovery: 2008/09 - 2012/13 Actuals and 2013/14 Projectionversus 2007/08 Benchmark
% Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/08 % Chg ADR vs 2007/08 % Chg Revenue vs 2007/08
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SEASONAL HEALTH: SUMMER STRENGTH
2007 '08 vs '07 '09 vs '07 '10 vs '07 '11 vs '07 '12 vs '07 13 VS '07-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
-1.3%
-13.9%
-9.5%
-4.1%
2.8%
8.8%
0.0%
-4.9% -4.3%-2.4%
0.6%
6.7%
0.0%
-15.7%
-11.8%
-3.9%
5.5%
17.6%
6 Year Summer Performance: 2008 - 2013 vs 2007
% Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007 % Chg ADR vs 2007 % Chg Revenue vs 2007
17Made possible by DestiMetrics LLCProperty of DestiMetrics LLC dba The ASSEMBLY - All Rights Reserved - 303.731.2268 – theassembly.destimetrics.com - [email protected]
• Interrelationships between:– Holiday / nonholiday periods– Visitor demographics– Geographic origin
• Data reflects overnight visitors to Rocky Mountain ski resorts (08/09-12/13 average)– Includes 57 resorts accounting for 94% of Rocky Mountain
resort visits– Thanks to NSAA, state associations, and individual resorts for
sponsoring efforts & sharing data
Overnight Skier/Rider Characteristicsby Time of Season
Made possible by DestiMetrics LLCProperty of DestiMetrics LLC dba The ASSEMBLY - All Rights Reserved - 303.731.2268 – theassembly.destimetrics.com - [email protected]
Nov 05
Nov 12
Nov 19
Nov 26
Dec 03
Dec 10
Dec 17
Dec 24
Dec 31
Jan 07
Jan 14
Jan 21
Jan 28
Feb 04
Feb 11
Feb 18
Feb 25
Mar 04
Mar 11
Mar 18
Mar 25
Apr 01
Apr 08
Apr 15
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Share of partiesw/ kids aged 0-17
(left scale; 5 yr historic avg)
Share of K-12 districts onwint/spr break
(right scale;4 yr historic avg)
Week (beginning Monday; 2012/13)
Shar
e of
Ove
rnig
ht P
artie
s w
ith
Kids
Age
0-1
7
Shar
e of
Sch
ool D
istr
icts
on
Vaca
tion
Kids’ Visitation & Holiday Periods(Overnight visitors to Rocky Mtn resorts)
Made possible by DestiMetrics LLCProperty of DestiMetrics LLC dba The ASSEMBLY - All Rights Reserved - 303.731.2268 – theassembly.destimetrics.com - [email protected]
Age 18-24 Visitation & University Vacations(Overnight visitors to Rocky Mtn resorts)
Nov 05
Nov 12
Nov 19
Nov 26
Dec 03
Dec 10
Dec 17
Dec 24
Dec 31
Jan 07
Jan 14
Jan 21
Jan 28
Feb 04
Feb 11
Feb 18
Feb 25
Mar 04
Mar 11
Mar 18
Mar 25
Apr 01
Apr 08
Apr 15
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Share of Rocky Mtnovernight visitors
aged 18 - 24(left scale;
5 yr historic avg)
Share of universities onwint/spr break
(right scale;4 yr historic avg)
Week (beginning Monday; 2012/13)
Shar
e of
Ove
rnig
ht V
isit
ors
Age
d 18
-24
Shar
e of
Uni
vers
ities
on
Vaca
tion
Made possible by DestiMetrics LLCProperty of DestiMetrics LLC dba The ASSEMBLY - All Rights Reserved - 303.731.2268 – theassembly.destimetrics.com - [email protected]
Opportunity Segments in Off-Peak Periods(Overnight visitors to Rocky Mtn resorts)
Nov 05
Nov 12
Nov 19
Nov 26
Dec 03
Dec 10
Dec 17
Dec 24
Dec 31
Jan 07
Jan 14
Jan 21
Jan 28
Feb 04
Feb 11
Feb 18
Feb 25
Mar 04
Mar 11
Mar 18
Mar 25
Apr 01
Apr 08
Apr 15
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Couples w/okids (index)
(left scale; 5 yr historic avg)
Friends in party (Index)(left scale;
5 yr historic avg)
Age 55+ (Index)(left scale;
5 yr historic avg)
Share of schools/univs onwint/spr break
(right scale;4 yr historic avg)
Week (Mon - Sun, 2012/13)
Inde
x (1
00=s
easo
n av
erag
e)
Shar
e of
Sch
ools
/ U
nive
rsiti
es o
n Va
catio
n
Made possible by DestiMetrics LLCProperty of DestiMetrics LLC dba The ASSEMBLY - All Rights Reserved - 303.731.2268 – theassembly.destimetrics.com - [email protected]
Nov 05
Nov 12
Nov 19
Nov 26
Dec 03
Dec 10
Dec 17
Dec 24
Dec 31
Jan 07
Jan 14
Jan 21
Jan 28
Feb 04
Feb 11
Feb 18
Feb 25
Mar 04
Mar 11
Mar 18
Mar 25
Apr 01
Apr 08
Apr 15
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Texas(5 yr historic avg)
New York City DMA(5 yr historic avg) Chicago DMA
(5 yr historic avg)
Week (beginning Monday; 2012/13)
Perc
ent o
f Ove
rnig
ht V
isit
ors
Timing by Domestic Market(Overnight visitors to Rocky Mtn resorts)
Made possible by DestiMetrics LLCProperty of DestiMetrics LLC dba The ASSEMBLY - All Rights Reserved - 303.731.2268 – theassembly.destimetrics.com - [email protected]
Timing by Foreign Market(Overnight visitors to Rocky Mtn resorts)
Nov 05
Nov 12
Nov 19
Nov 26
Dec 03
Dec 10
Dec 17
Dec 24
Dec 31
Jan 07
Jan 14
Jan 21
Jan 28
Feb 04
Feb 11
Feb 18
Feb 25
Mar 04
Mar 11
Mar 18
Mar 25
Apr 01
Apr 08
Apr 15
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Australia(5 yr historic avg)
Canada(5 yr historic avg)
Latin America(5 yr avg)
UK(5 yr historic avg)
Week (Mon - Sun, 2012/13)
Perc
ent o
f Ove
rnig
ht V
isit
ors
23Made possible by DestiMetrics LLCProperty of DestiMetrics LLC dba The ASSEMBLY - All Rights Reserved - 303.731.2268 – theassembly.destimetrics.com - [email protected]
• Summary: significant seasonal variation– Strong family representation on holidays – Strong university representation at Xmas, Spr Brk– Off-peak opportunities with non-families– Geographic idiosyncrasies in travel timing (typically
related to holidays & school breaks)– Cautions:
– Visitor profile is diverse throughout core of season– Many overnight visitor characteristics show modest
variation by time of season (NPS), or unique variations (LOS)– Significant variability across resorts
Overnight Skier/Rider Characteristicsby Time of Season
State of the Snow Sports MarketJanuary 2014
Sales reached $2.3B, up 9% in $ and up 7% in units sold through December
19.3M participants7M who didn’t participate but consider themselves skiers/riders
Channels: Specialty, $1B – up 7% in units and up 8% in dollars Internet, $548M - up 1% in units and up 12% in dollars Chain Stores, $496M – up 11% in units and up 10% in dollars
Categories Apparel, $985M – up 2% in units and up 7% in dollars Accessories, $734M - up 10% in units and up 15% in dollars Equipment, $541M - up 5% in units and up 6% in dollars
THE SNOW SPORTS MARKET60K FT VIEW
Source: *SIA RetailTRAK™ produced by Leisure Trends, a NPD Group Company - August to December 2013 – Carryover Included
SALES BY MONTH
+7% +6% +7% +14%
August - Sep-tember
October November December January February March$0
$200,000,000
$400,000,000
$600,000,000
$800,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$1,200,000,000
Sales by Month 2010/2011 - December 2013
2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014
$1.15B$1.1B
SALES BY CHANNEL
Chain Internet Specialty All Stores
Prior Season to Date 495994339.4329 547535984.6558 1023992807.4545 2067523131.5432
Season to Date 543682157.1043 612530626.1917 1103930291.3713 2260143074.6673
$250,000,000
$750,000,000
$1,250,000,000
$1,750,000,000
$2,250,000,000
$ Sales by Channel Aug - Dec 2013 v. Aug - Dec 2012
$ S
ales
$ SALES BY REGION
Midwest West Northeast South
$203,829,292
$359,965,063
$304,289,091
$155,909,353
$218,317,615
$382,645,383
$325,648,951
$177,318,343
Specialty Sales by Region Aug - Dec 2013 v. Aug - Dec 2012
Prior Season to Date Season to Date
SEASON TO DATE SALES BY CATEGORY
Dollars Soldas values Prior Season to Date Season to Date YTD Change YTD Growth
Alpine Ski Equipment $314,834,975 $339,090,404 $24,255,429 7.70%
Nordic Ski Equipment $18,593,459 $21,616,730 $3,023,272 16.26%
Randonee/AT Ski Equipment $8,576,458 $10,545,489 $1,969,032 22.96%
Snowboard Equipment $163,985,327 $167,199,430 $3,214,103 1.96%
Alpine Apparel $758,452,689 $816,642,086 $58,189,397 7.67%
Snowboard Apparel $109,974,967 $112,754,464 $2,779,497 2.53%
Equipment Accessories $286,723,994 $331,731,097 $45,007,103 15.70%
Apparel Accessories $349,920,134 $402,156,652 $52,236,518 14.93%
Total $2,011,062,003 $2,201,736,352 $190,674,349 9.48%
WEATHER
January 20, 2014
January 20, 2013
GROWING PARTICIPATION
• Learn to Ski and Snowboard Month• Bring a Friend• Passport and Snow Pass Programs• Olympics?• Local/Small Hills? Terrain based Learning
and Riglet Parks• Opportunities?
OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES
• Market is up overall but drought in the Pacific region threatens
• Programs promoting participation in snow sports are working – what’s next?
• Gen Y and Gen Z will soon take over the market – are we ready?
• We are getting a clearer picture of why our consumers love to ski and ride – how can we use that?
• How can snow sports exploit suburban adult trends?
CONTACT SIA RESEARCH• Kelly Davis – [email protected], 703-506-4224
• Emily Ohara – [email protected], 703-506-4218
• Western SIA Rep – Dave Wray, [email protected]
• Mountain and Mid-West SIA Rep – Reddy Kennedy, [email protected]
• East Coast SIA Rep – Ed Wray, [email protected]
34
Panelist:Michael Berry,PresidentNSAA
Panelist:Nathan Rafferty,President & CEOSki Utah
Panelist:Melanie Mills,President & CEOColorado Ski Country
GENERAL SESSION 1: Situation: State of the Industry – Winter 13/14